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The Wedge Guy: Is your driver the first “scoring club”?

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I was traveling Sunday and didn’t get to watch the end of the PGA Championship, so imagine my shock Monday morning when I read what had happened on that back nine. Like most everyone, I figured Brooks Koepka had his game and his emotions completely under control and Sunday’s finish would be pretty boring and anti-climactic. Man, were we wrong!!?

As I read the shot-by-shot, disaster-by-disaster account of what happened on those few holes, I have to admit my somewhat cynical self became engaged. I realize the conditions were tough, but it still boils down to the fact that Koepka nearly lost this PGA Championship because he couldn’t execute what I call “basic golf” – hitting fairways and greens – when it counted. And Dustin Johnson lost his ability to do the same just as he got within striking distance.

I’ve long been a critic of the way the game has come to be played at the highest levels; what we used to call “bomb and gouge” has become the norm at the professional tour level. These guys are big strong athletes, and they go at it harder than anyone ever did in “the old days”. Watch closely and you’ll see so many of them are on their toes or even off the ground at impact, especially with the driver. Call me old-fashioned, but I just don’t see how that can be the path to consistent shotmaking.

So, my curiosity then drove me to the year-to-date statistics on the PGA Tour website to dive into this a bit deeper. What I found was quite interesting, and I believe can be helpful to all of you readers as you think about how to lower your handicap this season. Follow me here, as I think there are some very helpful numbers from the PGA Tour.
I’ve long contended that golf is a game of ball control . . . let’s call it shotmaking. Your personal strength profile will determine whether you are a long hitter or not, and there’s probably not a lot you can do (or will do) to change that dramatically. But PGA Tour statistics indicate that accuracy, not distance, is the key to better scoring.

The Tour leader in driving accuracy is Jim Furyk, the only guy who is hitting more than 75% of the fairways. The Tour average is under 62%, or not even 2 out of 3. That means the typical round has the tour professional playing at least 4-5 approach shots from the rough. I’m going to come back to that in just a moment and explore the “cost” of those missed fairways.

The Tour leader in greens-in-regulation is Tiger Woods at 74%, almost 3-out-of-4 . . . but the Tour average is less than 66%, or just under 2-out-of-3. I believe enlightenment comes by breaking that GIR statistic down even further.
From the fairway, the Tour leader in GIR is Justin Thomas at 85% and the worst guy at 65%, three points better than the tour average for GIR overall. Hmmmmm. From the rough, however, the best guy on Tour is Taylor Gooch at 63.4%, which is not as good as the very last guy from the fairway.

But let’s dive even a bit deeper to better understand the importance of driving accuracy. Is it true these guys are so good from the rough that hitting fairways doesn’t matter? Not according to the numbers.

From the rough in the range of 125-150 yards – a wedge for most of these guys – the tour’s best hit it 25-27 feet from the hole and only 30 tour pros are averaging inside 30 feet from that distance. But from the fairway, 25 yards further back – 150-175 yards – the tour’s best hit it inside 21-23 feet, and 160 guys are getting closer than 30 feet on average. Even from 175-200 in the fairway, the best on tour hit it closer than the best on tour from the rough 50 yards closer.

So, what do you do with this information? I encourage any serious golfer to really analyze your own rounds to see the difference in your scoring on holes where you find the fairway versus those where you don’t. I feel certain you’ll find throttling back a bit with your driver and focusing more on finding the fairway, rather than trying to squeeze a few more yards of the tee will help you shoot lower scores.

If you have the inclination to see what more fairways can do to your own scores, here’s a little experiment for you. Get a buddy or two for a “research round” and play this game: When you miss a fairway, walk the ball straight over to the fairway, and then 15 yards back. So, you’ll hit every approach from the fairway, albeit somewhat further back – see what you shoot.

Next week I’m going to follow up this “enlightenment” with some tips and techniques that I feel certain will help you hit more fairways so you can take this to the bank this season.

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Terry Koehler is a fourth generation Texan and a graduate of Texas A&M University. Over his 40-year career in the golf industry, he has created over 100 putter designs, sets of irons and drivers, and in 2014, he put together the team that reintroduced the Ben Hogan brand to the golf equipment industry. Since the early 2000s, Terry has been a prolific writer, sharing his knowledge as “The Wedge Guy”.   But his most compelling work is in the wedge category. Since he first patented his “Koehler Sole” in the early 1990s, he has been challenging “conventional wisdom” reflected in ‘tour design’ wedges. The performance of his wedge designs have stimulated other companies to move slightly more mass toward the top of the blade in their wedges, but none approach the dramatic design of his Edison Forged wedges, which have been robotically proven to significantly raise the bar for wedge performance. Terry serves as Chairman and Director of Innovation for Edison Golf – check it out at www.EdisonWedges.com.

36 Comments

36 Comments

  1. SteelyDan

    May 23, 2019 at 12:30 pm

    Tour players are not trying to maximize distance. They make concessions for accuracy. On average, they hit down with the driver. Great article.

  2. Daniel Kidd

    May 23, 2019 at 6:08 am

    I see both sides of the debate. From experience, I see what you are saying Terry, but I also agree with some of the naysayers in the comments too. On the one hand, I have almost always found a 330 yd hole more difficult when I bash driver as hard as I can, rather than hitting to the 100 yd marker and wedging in. It’s rare when laying back that I make worse than par, and I make about the same number of birdies. Definitely make more bogeys when hammering away.

    On the flip side, the pro game is different from ours, and their skill with the half shots and from the rough is so good they can get away with bashing it off the tee and attacking all the par 5’s (even if they can’t reach them all in two). Plus, the rough at the courses we usually play isn’t as penal as tour rough.

    I did find it fascinating that the worst GIR player from the fairway is better at hitting greens than the best player from the rough. You’d think that stat would have some of the pros thinking of placing more emphasis on finding fairways.

  3. Sahil

    May 23, 2019 at 2:50 am

    I get what Terry is saying. To discount the driver, in my opinion can hinder your game, although at my club games there are few guys who use only an iron of the tee and they play off a 10 H.I and less but none are less than 7. The guys who really play well (H.I of 8 and less) hit driver consistently and fairly accurately. But I think “do what ever it takes to keep your ball in play”.
    The consistent club winners do this consistently.

  4. Bob Jones

    May 22, 2019 at 7:23 pm

    Terry, accurate is good, but so is long. It is not true that if you hit the ball farther you will always be in the weeds.

    I can dial back my tee shots so I always land them in the fairway. But if I hit my normal tee shot and miss four fairways, and am 25-50 yards longer every time (to use your yardage), I am going to shoot a lower score because on those ten holes I hit the fairway I will be using an easier club to hit into the green, and that more than makes up for the fairways I miss, which will not always cost me the loss of a stroke anyway. I keep records. Of the holes were I get a par or birdie, I miss the fairway about half the time. I get away with it because I don’t miss by much and the rough we play from on recreational courses isn’t punitive.

    As for hitting greens, I score lots of pars by getting up and down from greenside. GIR is overrated, if you ask me.

  5. Jamie Collis

    May 22, 2019 at 7:18 pm

    I learnt to play golf in Canada and the US and the rough is manicured compared to the Australian courses I now play. The Australian rough consists of gras tuffs, bare lies and uneven ground and as a HC 9 I find it difficult to hit greens from these lies. For this reason, the foundation for my best rounds are long drives in the middle of the fairway which makes it easier to hit greens in the 2 club winds we typically play in.

  6. Pelling

    May 22, 2019 at 6:06 pm

    Brooks Koepka hit a gap wedge 160 yards to one foot on #10 for birdie. That seemed to be his scoring club. The ball goes too far.

  7. Drew

    May 22, 2019 at 2:34 pm

    I find it comical that many GolfWRXers apply articles they read about statistical analysis on the tour to their own game, as if they are playing “the same” game. Realistically, as pointed out many times in these comments, you are not playing the same game as the pros. You are playing shorter courses, you are playing shorter/thinner rough, you are not as precise with your ball striking, you are not as accurate with your distance control, and you are not as accurate in general at navigating your shots as the Pros.
    I’d like to add a couple points to Terry’s case about the advantages of hitting the fairways that he didn’t touch on, but I feel greatly affect the recreational golfer’s success on the course because of our lack of precision and accuracy compared to the pros. From the fairway, the impedance of overhanging trees is dramatically eliminated, our angle to the pin is greatly improved, and the visual aesthetics of the hole are generally better (for example seeing the front of the green instead of only a giant bunker). These are all things that improve a recreational golfers confidence when standing over the ball for their second shot, and confidence is something all recreational golfers need more of. Outside of the fact that we cannot shape the ball left or right to miss a tree and still hit the green, or flight a punch out to roll up accurately from 150 away, or be assured we are going to get enough club on the ball out of the rough to carry the bunker 125 yards away like the pros can, we just simply do not play the same game as them. We need clean, confidence inspiring looks.
    As a more general statement to take away from all this, off the tee you should hit the absolute longest club you can that will not get you into trouble a significant portion of the time. If Driver could roll through the fairway and put you under a tree, take 3W and assure yourself you will have a look at the green. If rolling through the fairway still gives you an unimpeded shot to the green, then take driver. Manage your game, do not just think because Brooks and DJ can bomb and gouge that you should too.

  8. Terry B Koehler

    May 22, 2019 at 10:12 am

    Thank you all for sounding off and “taking it to me”. I apparently did not make my point as I had intended. I agree with all the comments that the long hitters on tour are dominating, and probably will from now on. And I have great respect for Mark Brodie’s work. But our games are a far cry from theirs, and the courses we play are much different, as several of you pointed out. The point I was trying to make — and apparently did not do very well — is that even tour professionals are not nearly as good at hitting greens and getting it close from the rough as they are from the fairway even 25-50 yards further back. Given that statistical insight, it would make sense that this would apply to us recreational golfers as well, wouldn’t it? From my personal observations, scoring is just easier for all of us when we keep the drives in the fairway, just as it is for tour players. And that we probably suffer more from errant drives than they do, because we do not have their skills around the greens. Finally, I was trying to communicate that most recreational golfers are not going to make the physical commitment to change their body with lots of gym work to continually add yards; given that, working on hitting more fairways would probably help lower scores.

    Thanks again to all of you for sounding off, though. That keeps me on my toes.

    • Barney Puttick

      May 23, 2019 at 3:43 am

      Great article Terry, and as a coach I will use your thoughts with my recreational students , as I agree the fairway is the way to go !

  9. jgpl001

    May 22, 2019 at 5:43 am

    The wedge guy is correct but the the ave club player and the ave tour pro was never further apart – in 1970 the ave club hcp was 18 and today it is 18, but the stats on tour across this period is startling

    On the PGA tour short hitters rarely win – a wedge from the rough for these guys is preferable to 6 iron from the fairway

    I don’t see any new OEM drivers boast about more “accuracy” or talk about “dialling it back a little”

    We have been conditioned for “more speed”, “everyone gets faster”, etc.

    For me I know if I keep it in play I score well, if not I don’t – simple, but as a dedicated ho I will always looks for anything that give me an extra yard….and I am not a short hitter…

  10. JP

    May 21, 2019 at 10:59 pm

    Terry K got schooled here.

  11. Stephen Peltier

    May 21, 2019 at 10:36 pm

    I’ve actually done a lot of deep analysis on this, even threw some AI machine learning at it and my conclusions are as follows. People that can hit the golf ball well score better than people who suck at hitting the golf ball.

  12. Steve Wozeniak PGA

    May 21, 2019 at 10:10 pm

    Terry,

    Golf wrks readers know a little more than you thought huh!!!!!!

    No worries you will do better next time.

    Steve Wozeniak PGA

  13. Alex

    May 21, 2019 at 6:20 pm

    Because you’ll win your club championship in a scratch division going 69, 70 or something like that on a course that rates out at 74 or so. On a PGA tour course that rates out 78 or 79 at least with way faster green, more tucked pins, and even longer rough a 69 and 70 will make cut but thats about it most likely. I agree to the average or even club scratch golfer being “long enough” and hitting fairways and greens is the way to go…most of us don’t have the 63 gear in us even at our own home comfy track. The sport the guys on tv play might as well be another sport. Every week somebody gets hot and goes low 60’s and its a birdie fest. If we go out and got 69 70 in a 2 day tournament thats probably 7/10 birdies depending how you attack par 5s. Every week somebody has one round that they make that many birdies and they sit atop the leaderboard and so on and so forth and it becomes a tournament for racehorses and we see them get deeper than 15 most weeks. The way they are doing that is basically putting all their eggs in the basket of attacking par 5’s the random short par 4 and rolling the dice that the driver makes more birdies happen and worry about worse results later. The majority of us are trying to post scores to get a better handicap, the majority of them are trying to make money and either win majors and be hall of famers, win tournaments and then a major, finish top 10 and then a win, make cuts and ultimately keep their card. There is some young bomber waiting on the Web that is capable of shooting 62 and taking a journey man’s card. They are full sprint all the time on tour cause if its their week they go all out to win because it might not happen ever again. Us mere mortals will shoot another 71 or 69 or whatever before summers end and the way to shoot a bunch of low to mid 70’s doing it is fairways and greens. They are also just a lot more talented than all of us and that’s a hard pill for most of us to swallow, but the truth hurts.

  14. PSG

    May 21, 2019 at 6:16 pm

    *sighs*

    Basic things seem somewhat beyond this guy.

    Why would a guy playing to shoot the best score he can use the same strategy as a pro who either wins the tournament or doesn’t care?

    The pros play bomb and gauge because there is a 70 person field and somebody in that field who plays bomb and gauge will win. We don’t have a 70 person field, Terry. The two goals are completely different. The pros are not trying to shoot their best average score over time, they’re trying to spike a tournament.

  15. Zach

    May 21, 2019 at 5:22 pm

    I agree with the people saying to A) read Every Shot Counts and B) that you need to consider the courses most Ams play vs. the ones PGA tour pro’s play. The greens that probably 90% of us play on are slow, maybe the nicest ones stimp around 9 or 10; Those greens are much slower and softer than what is on tour. I can afford to bomb the ball into the rough at my courses because I can easily hold a green with a wedge from the rough, whereas guys on Tour still might see significant run out on firm and fast greens, even from 130 yards away.

    Also consider the rough on most courses that the Tour stops at is much thicker and longer than what majority of us see. The rough at Bethpage was unreal…and how many courses have fescue like that? Only in certain areas.

    DJ and Brooks vs guys like Chez Reavie and Furyk … Who are you betting on to win the next major? Tiger literally made a career out of being the longest guy out there, fairways were an after thought. He was so good from the rough it didn’t matter.

    • T

      May 21, 2019 at 7:34 pm

      Eldrick was able to escape from the rough because of square grooves. Yes he thrived in that era.
      What was the one complaint from that time? That the rough didn’t mean anything as they could gouge it out and the ball still stayed on the green.
      Don’t let his supposed skill fool you.

  16. gery katona

    May 21, 2019 at 4:59 pm

    I’m just a 66 year old 15 handicapper that used to hit my drives about 220yds. But I changed my strategy and swing after reading some stats that show there isn’t very much correlation between fairways hit and GIR, or more importantly, scoring. I mainly apply lag with the driver as opposed to trying to muscle, or push the club into the ball and gained at least 20 yards, I would say more than that. The longer the drive, the easier all the rest of the shots are. Less club into the green means closer to the hole. Closer to the hole means fewer putts needed. The drive sets up the hole and distance cannot be ignored. Also, I play mostly public courses and a fair number of private ones as well. On most of those courses, the rough is not very consequential anyway, so just rip it the best you can. Now matter how weak you are, a longer drive helps anyone.

  17. D

    May 21, 2019 at 1:48 pm

    Complete and utter tosh.
    Where are the Stats singling out Bethpage, Shinnecock, Erin Hills or even Chambers Bay? Where are the driving stats and GIR stats from those majors?
    The reason is obvious as to why I would talk about those: the Rough is more than twice as thick as at regular Tour stops.
    Even the week before Bethpage. That Trinity Forest course has NO rough. None. Wide open fairway. The penalty was missing greens, greens that have rolling drop offs and slick slopes al around.

    Your article is shyte.

    The reason why the feet have to come off the ground for the driver compared to the old days of Persimmon is because the ball is 2 inches off the ground on a tee now, when the ball was barely ¼ inch off the ground in the old days.

  18. Doug

    May 21, 2019 at 1:35 pm

    Mr Koehler, read “Every Shot Counts” by Mark Broadie to see how to actually apply the math you are speaking of and realize it supports the opposite of your conclusion. Within the skill range of PGA tour players, distance is one of the biggest determining factors of success.

    Leave actual math analysis to trained professionals. This opinion piece degrades your credibility.

    • Jack Attack

      May 21, 2019 at 4:23 pm

      I’ll second Doug’s comments. Broadie’s book provides a framework on how to accurately breakdown and understand where players are better or worse than the field. The speculation in this article is just wrong and a waste of time.

      Do us all a favor and read Mark Broadie’s book, and then come back with a new & informed piece for WRX.

      • Scratchscorer

        May 21, 2019 at 5:13 pm

        I’ll third that. Read the book and you will have an understanding of how much distance matters.

    • Kyle

      May 21, 2019 at 5:37 pm

      Yep. The math doesn’t lie. There is a reason these “bomb and gougers” are so successful.

  19. Payton

    May 21, 2019 at 1:21 pm

    You forgot to account for the fact nobody hits 100% fairways. Missing 2 more fairways and having wedge instead of 7 iron means you will make up strokes through your round. The biggest gains for average players isn’t squeezing out a few more yards, unless your hard swings squeeze 10+ more yards, it’s about not hitting 3 wood or other shorter clubs. The 20+ yards lost by clubbing down are a significant loss if it’s not required by the hole.

  20. Bones

    May 21, 2019 at 12:25 pm

    People have already done the math on this and this isn’t exactly the result. Maybe read what Mark Broadie & Scott Fawcett have to say on the subject…

    • Scratchscorer

      May 21, 2019 at 5:17 pm

      Exactly. I don’t understand how articles that contradict the statistics are still being perpetuated as true. This is golf propaganda.

  21. NYCBethpageBlack

    May 21, 2019 at 11:55 am

    Reality is most of the courses on the PGA allow for bomb and gouge. They are typically very long and many are fairly open with relatively wide fairways and the rough/trees don’t really destroy your scoring ability until you are way out of the fairway. Take the TPC courses for example. I have played 6 different TPC courses, and even when on my bad driving days, I still shoot in the mid-low 80s from the tips (Registered HCP is ~10).

    And then there is Bethpage black. I play there 2-3x yearly and while trees are rarely in play, the deep rough is 3 feet or less from the fairway. If I don’t drive the ball well on the Black course, I will not break 90. Period.

    We all saw that second shot DJ hit on #1 this weekend that went about 40 yards, right? That ball was less that 12 feet from being in the fairway. On most TPC courses he can still hit that shot on the green with some spin to boot; on the black course, he couldn’t even get it halfway to the hole.

    The reason guys play golf the way they do now is that the majority of the courses got longer after the Tiger era, but only some punish missing fairways. Sure, if you hit it into the woods or 20 yards off the fairway, all the PGA courses play difficult, but few will punish you like bethpage black if you are not flat on target.

  22. Benny

    May 21, 2019 at 11:00 am

    TK15 Bad math and anedotal proof, you can do better.

  23. Jeff

    May 21, 2019 at 10:55 am

    This may be true for amateur golfers but is far from the truth on the PGA. The longest players are far and away the best. You may not lose strokes from the fairway at 175 yds but the difference from being in the rough at 175 vs 125 is extremely different. If the best guy on tour is still only 3/4 fairways, that means 1/4 times he’s losing almost a full stroke by being 50 yds further back. There’s a reason why all the best players in the world are bombers. The misconception is that making the rough longer and the fairways narrower hurts those guys. It actually helps them because of how much larger a penalty it is to miss a fairway at 175 out vs 125 out.

  24. Tom

    May 21, 2019 at 10:29 am

    Yeah, This is exactly why Chez Reavie is winning so many events… Oh… wait… Nevermind. If you look at the top ten in accuracy off the tee. you have 1 win in the last 2 years. If you look at the top 10 in distance you have 5. I think I would take the distance…

    if you go out to top 20 in distance you have a lot more wins in the last two years. I counted 15 in think. If you go out to the top 20 in driving accuracy, the number is still 1.

    So the money goes to distance.

    • Tom

      May 21, 2019 at 10:31 am

      correct that, you have 3 wins if you go out to the top 20 in accuracy, but distance still has it, by a long distance.

    • Luke

      May 21, 2019 at 10:51 am

      I think their has to be some correlation between the stronger drivers also having the strength and clubhead speed being able to get the ball out of the wicked lies in the rough they face more often.

      Doesn’t mean the average golfer shouldn’t prioritize being in the short stuff.

      • Jeff

        May 21, 2019 at 10:58 am

        it’s more just that it’s easier to get the ball out of the rough with a wedge than it is with a 6i. I mean strength helps but loft makes the bigger difference here, imo.

  25. Juststeve

    May 21, 2019 at 10:12 am

    Reality has been somewhat distorted by the way the governing bodies pick courses and set them up. Last week at the Black is a perfect example. By selecting that course the PGA eliminated about half the field, the half who are not bombers. The course conditions, damp and soft eliminated another 20%, those who can’t carry the ball a long way. As a result only a relative handful of golfers were really in it to win. Koepka was the best of that handful last week.

    Consider now the results on a hypothetical different course, a Harbor Town or a Colonial for example. Now we have a tournament where most of the field has a real chance to compete, not just the longest hitter. We have a tournament where whoever has the best game throughout the bag has a shot at winning. More interesting in my opinion, but the networks like chicks did the big hitters.

    I’d like to see courses that are more available to all first class golfers. Marion is a great example. Difficult to be sure, fair, and the best overall golfer of the week has a real chance to win.

  26. Joe

    May 21, 2019 at 9:20 am

    I completely agree with this. Of course strong wedge play within 75 yards can certainly help “save” strokes, but for the purpose of scoring better I agree hitting fairways are more important. My lowest rounds this year have all come when ive hit 10+ fairways in a round.

    When the driver hasn’t worked for me, I’ve “scored” better when I put the driver away and hit a 2 iron in the fairway much more consistently.

    • tom

      May 21, 2019 at 7:54 pm

      Your best round may come from when you hit the most fairways of course, what you don’t understand though is that these bombers are only hitting 1 or maybe 2 less fairways but are 40 yards ahead of you every time when they in the fairway. Sure they may make bogey on that 1 extra hole they miss the fairway on, but they are going to make a hell of a lot more birdies from 40 yards up when they are in the fairway.

      A second point is also that when you are 40 yards ahead (in the fairway or the rough it applies to both), you are reducing your chance of making a bogey by a significant amount when comparing it to being further back, so its a double winner.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open betting preview

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As the Florida swing comes to an end, the PGA Tour makes its way to Houston to play the Texas Children’s Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course.

This will be the fourth year that Memorial Park Golf Course will serve as the tournament host. The event did not take place in 2023, but the course hosted the event in 2020, 2021 and 2022.

Memorial Park is a par-70 layout measuring 7,432 yards and features Bermudagrass greens. Historically, the main defense for the course has been thick rough along the fairways and tightly mown runoff areas around the greens. Memorial Park has a unique setup that features three Par 5’s and five Par 3’s.

The field will consist of 132 players, with the top 65 and ties making the cut. There are some big names making the trip to Houston, including Scottie Scheffler, Wyndham Clark, Tony Finau, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala.

Past Winners at Memorial Park

  • 2022: Tony Finau (-16)
  • 2021: Jason Kokrak (-10)
  • 2020: Carlos Ortiz (-13)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Memorial Park

Let’s take a look at several metrics for Memorial Park to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds:

Strokes Gained: Approach

Memorial Park is a pretty tough golf course. Golfers are penalized for missing greens and face some difficult up and downs to save par. Approach will be key.

Total Strokes Gained: Approach per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.30)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.26)
  3. Keith Mitchell (+0.97) 
  4. Tony Finau (+0.92)
  5. Jake Knapp (+0.84)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Memorial Park is a long golf course with rough that can be penal. Therefore, a combination of distance and accuracy is the best metric.

Total Strokes Gained: Off the Tee per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+0.94)
  2. Kevin Dougherty (+0.93)
  3. Cameron Champ (+0.86)
  4. Rafael Campos (+0.84)
  5. Si Woo Kim (+0.70)

Strokes Gained Putting: Bermudagrass + Fast

The Bermudagrass greens played fairly fast the past few years in Houston. Jason Kokrak gained 8.7 strokes putting on his way to victory in 2021 and Tony Finau gained in 7.8 in 2022.

Total Strokes Gained Putting (Bermudagrass) per round past 24 rounds (min. 8 rounds):

  1. Adam Svensson (+1.27)
  2. Harry Hall (+1.01)
  3. Martin Trainer (+0.94)
  4. Taylor Montgomery (+0.88)
  5. S.H. Kim (+0.86)

Strokes Gained: Around the Green

With firm and undulating putting surfaces, holding the green on approach shots may prove to be a challenge. Memorial Park has many tightly mowed runoff areas, so golfers will have challenging up-and-down’s around the greens. Carlos Ortiz gained 5.7 strokes around the green on the way to victory in 2020.

Total Strokes Gained: Around the Green per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Mackenzie Hughes (+0.76)
  2. S.H. Kim (+0.68)
  3. Scottie Scheffler (+0.64)
  4. Jorge Campillo (+0.62)
  5. Jason Day (+0.60)

Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult

Memorial Park is a long and difficult golf course. This statistic will incorporate players who’ve had success on these types of tracks in the past. 

Total Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.45)
  2. Ben Griffin (+1.75)
  3. Will Zalatoris (+1.73)
  4. Ben Taylor (+1.53)
  5. Tony Finau (+1.42)

Course History

Here are the players who have performed the most consistently at Memorial Park. 

Strokes Gained Total at Memorial Park past 12 rounds:

  1. Tyson Alexander (+3.65)
  2. Ben Taylor (+3.40)
  3. Tony Finau (+2.37)
  4. Joel Dahmen (+2.25)
  5. Patton Kizzire (+2.16)

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (24%) SG: OTT (24%); SG: Putting Bermudagrass/Fast (13%); SG: Long and Difficult (13%); SG: ARG (13%) and Course History (13%)

  1. Scottie Scheffler
  2. Wyndham Clark
  3. Tony Finau
  4. Joel Dahmen
  5. Stephan Jaeger 
  6. Aaron Rai
  7. Sahith Theegala
  8. Keith Mitchell 
  9. Jhonnatan Vegas
  10. Jason Day
  11. Kurt Kitayama
  12. Alex Noren
  13. Will Zalatoris
  14. Si Woo Kim
  15. Adam Long

2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open Picks

Will Zalatoris +2000 (Caesars)

Scottie Scheffler will undoubtedly be difficult to beat this week, so I’m starting my card with someone who I believe has the talent to beat him if he doesn’t have his best stuff.

Will Zalatoris missed the cut at the PLAYERS, but still managed to gain strokes on approach while doing so. In an unpredictable event with extreme variance, I don’t believe it would be wise to discount Zalatoris based on that performance. Prior to The PLAYERS, the 27-year-old finished T13, T2 and T4 in his previous three starts.

Zalatoris plays his best golf on long and difficult golf courses. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the category, but the eye test also tells a similar story. He’s contended at major championships and elevated events in the best of fields with tough scoring conditions.  The Texas resident should be a perfect fit at Memorial Park Golf Club.

Alex Noren +4500 (FanDuel)

Alex Noren has been quietly playing some of his best golf of the last half decade this season. The 41-year-old is coming off back-to-back top-20 finishes in Florida including a T9 at The PLAYERS in his most recent start.

In his past 24 rounds, Noren ranks 21st in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 30th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, 25th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses and 21st in Strokes Gained: Putting on fast Bermudagrass greens.

In addition to his strong recent play, the Swede also has played well at Memorial Park. In 2022, Noren finished T4 at the event, gaining 2.2 strokes off the tee and 7.0 strokes on approach for the week. In his two starts at the course, he’s gained an average of .6 strokes per round on the field, indicating he is comfortable on these greens.

Noren has been due for a win for what feels like an eternity, but Memorial Park may be the course that suits him well enough for him to finally get his elusive first PGA Tour victory.

Mackenzie Hughes +8000 (FanDuel)

Mackenzie Hughes found himself deep into contention at last week’s Valspar Championship before faltering late and finishing in a tie for 3rd place. While he would have loved to win the event, it’s hard to see the performance as anything other than an overwhelming positive sign for the Canadian.

Hughes has played great golf at Memorial Park in the past. He finished T7 in 2020, T29 in 2021 and T16 in 2022. The course fit seems to be quite strong for Hughes. He’s added distance off the tee in the past year or and ranks 8th in the field for apex height, which will be a key factor when hitting into Memorial Park’s elevated greens with steep run-off areas.

In his past 24 rounds, Hughes is the best player in the field in Strokes Gained: Around the Greens. The ability to scramble at this course will be extremely important. I believe Hughes can build off of his strong finish last week and contend once again to cement himself as a President’s Cup consideration.

Akshay Bhatia +8000 (FanDuel)

Akshay Bhatia played well last week at the Valspar and seemed to be in total control of his golf ball. He finished in a tie for 17th and shot an impressive -3 on a difficult Sunday. After struggling Thursday, Akshay shot 68-70-68 in his next three rounds.

Thus far, Bhatia has played better at easier courses, but his success at Copperhead may be due to his game maturing. The 22-year-old has enormous potential and the raw talent to be one of the best players in the world when he figures it all out.

Bhatia is a high upside play with superstar qualities and may just take the leap forward to the next stage of his career in the coming months.

Cameron Champ +12000 (FanDuel)

Cameron Champ is a player I often target in the outright betting market due to his “boom-or-bust” nature. It’s hard to think of a player in recent history with three PGA Tour wins who’s been as inconsistent as Champ has over the course of his career.

Despite the erratic play, Cam Champ simply knows how to win. He’s won in 2018, 2019 and 2021, so I feel he’s due for a win at some point this season. The former Texas A&M product should be comfortable in Texas and last week he showed us that his game is in a pretty decent spot.

Over his past 24 rounds, Champ ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 30th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses. Given his ability to spike at any given time, Memorial Park is a good golf course to target Champ on at triple digit odds.

Robert MacIntyre +12000 (FanDuel)

The challenge this week is finding players who can possibly beat Scottie Scheffler while also not dumping an enormous amount of money into an event that has a player at the top that looks extremely dangerous. Enter McIntyre, who’s another boom-or-bust type player who has the ceiling to compete with anyone when his game is clicking on all cylinders.

In his past 24 rounds, MacIntyre ranks 16th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 17th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and 10th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses.

MacIntyre’s PGA Tour season has gotten off to a slow start, but he finished T6 in Mexico, which is a course where players will hit driver on the majority of their tee shots, which is what we will see at Memorial Park. Texas can also get quite windy, which should suit MacIntyre. Last July, the Scot went toe to toe with Rory McIlroy at the Scottish Open before a narrow defeat. It would take a similar heroic effort to compete with Scheffler this year in Houston.

Ryan Moore +15000 (FanDuel)

Ryan Moore’s iron play has been absolutely unconscious over his past few starts. At The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field, he gained 6.1 strokes on approach and last week at Copperhead, he gained 9.0 strokes on approach.

It’s been a rough handful of years on Tour for the 41-year-old, but he is still a five-time winner on the PGA Tour who’s young enough for a career resurgence. Moore has chronic deterioration in a costovertebral joint that connects the rib to the spine, but has been getting more consistent of late, which is hopefully a sign that he is getting healthy.

Veterans have been contending in 2024 and I believe taking a flier on a proven Tour play who’s shown signs of life is a wise move at Memorial Park.

 

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Why the race to get better at golf might be doing more harm than good

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B.F. Skinner was one of the most important psychologists of the 20th century, developing the foundation of the development of reinforcement, and in doing so, creating the concept of behaviorism. In simple terms, this means that we are conditioned by our habits. In practical terms, it explains the divide between the few and far between elite instructors and college coaches.

To understand the application, let’s quickly review one of B.F. Skinner’s most important experiments; superstitions in the formation of behavior by pigeons. In this experiment, food was dispensed to pigeons at random intervals. Soon, according to Skinner, the pigeons began to associate whatever action they were doing at the time of the food being dispensed. According to Skinner, this conditioned that response and soon, they simply haphazardly repeated the action, failing to distinguish between cause and correlation (and in the meantime, looking really funny!).

Now, this is simply the best way to describe the actions of most every women’s college golf coach and too many instructors in America. They see something work, get positive feedback and then become conditioned to give the feedback, more and more, regardless of if it works (this is also why tips from your buddies never work!).

Go to a college event, particularly a women’s one, and you will see coaches running all over the place. Like the pigeons in the experiment, they have been conditioned into a codependent relationship with their players in which they believe their words and actions, can transform a round of golf. It is simply hilarious while being equally perturbing

In junior golf, it’s everywhere. Junior golf academies make a living selling parents that a hysterical coach and over-coaching are essential ingredients in your child’s success.

Let’s be clear, no one of any intellect has any real interest in golf — because it’s not that interesting. The people left, including most coaches and instructors, carve out a small fiefdom, usually on the corner of the range, where they use the illusion of competency to pray on people. In simple terms, they baffle people with the bullshit of pseudo-science that they can make you better, after just one more lesson.

The reality is that life is an impromptu game. The world of golf, business, and school have a message that the goal is being right. This, of course, is bad advice, being right in your own mind is easy, trying to push your ideas on others is hard. As a result, it is not surprising that the divorce rate among golf professionals and their instructors is 100 percent. The transfer rate among college players continues to soar, and too many courses have a guy peddling nefarious science to good people. In fact, we do at my course!

The question is, what impact does all this have on college-age and younger kids? At this point, we honestly don’t know. However, I am going to go out on a limb and say it isn’t good.

Soren Kierkegaard once quipped “I saw it for what it is, and I laughed.” The actions of most coaches and instructors in America are laughable. The problem is that I am not laughing because they are doing damage to kids, as well as driving good people away from this game.

The fact is that golfers don’t need more tips, secrets, or lessons. They need to be presented with a better understanding of the key elements of golf. With this understanding, they can then start to frame which information makes sense and what doesn’t. This will emancipate them and allow them to take charge of their own development.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Valspar Championship betting preview: Elite ballstrikers to thrive at Copperhead

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The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2024 Valspar Championship.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermudagrass greens overseeded with POA. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 16, 17 and 18 — also known as the “Snake Pit” — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.

The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. The field this week is solid and is a major improvement over last year’s field that felt the impact of players skipping due to a handful of “signature events” in a short span of time. 

Past Winners at Valspar Championship

  • 2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
  • 2022: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
  • 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
  • 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
  • 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
  • 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Copperhead

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can’t be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)

  1. Tony Finau (+.90)
  2. Nick Taylor (+.81)
  3. Justin Thomas (+.77)
  4. Greyson Sigg (+.69)
  5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+.67)

2. Good Drive %

The long hitters can be a bit limited here due to the tree-lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important, but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.

Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+91.3%) 
  2. Zach Johnson (+91.1%)
  3. Sam Ryder (+90.5%)
  4. Ryan Moore (+90.4%)
  5. Aaron Rai (+89.7%)

3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1.32)
  2. Keith Mitchell (+1.29)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.24)
  4. Cameron Young (+1.17) 
  5. Doug Ghim (+.95)

4. Bogey Avoidance

With the conditions likely to be difficult, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, oftentimes the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.

Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.

Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+9.0)
  2. Xander Schauffele (+9.3)
  3. Austin Cook (+9.7) 
  4. Chesson Hadley (+10.0)
  5. Greyson Sigg (+10.2)

5. Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions

Conditions will be tough this week at Copperhead. I am looking for golfers who can rise to the occasion if the course plays as difficult as it has in the past.

Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1,71) 
  2. Min Woo Lee (+1.39)
  3. Cameron Young (+1.27)
  4. Jordan Spieth (+1.08)
  5. Justin Suh (+.94)

6. Course History

That statistic will tell us which players have played well at Copperhead in the past.

Course History Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+3.75) 
  2. Sam Burns (+2.49)
  3. Davis Riley (+2.33)
  4. Matt NeSmith (+2.22)
  5. Jordan Spieth (+2.04)

The Valspar Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Good Drive % (15%), SG: BS (20%), Bogeys Avoided (13%), Course History (13%) Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions (12%).

  1. Xander Schauffele
  2. Doug Ghim
  3. Victor Perez
  4. Greyson Sigg
  5. Ryan Moore
  6. Tony Finau
  7. Justin Thomas
  8. Sam Ryder
  9. Sam Burns
  10. Lucas Glover

2024 Valspar Championship Picks

Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)

Justin Thomas will be disappointed with his finish at last week’s PLAYERS Championship, as the past champion missed the cut despite being in some decent form heading into the event. Despite the missed cut, JT hit the ball really well. In his two rounds, the two-time major champion led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach per round.

Thomas has been up and down this season. He’s missed the cut in two “signature events” but also has finishes of T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T6 at the Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am and T3 at the American Express. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in the field.

Thomas loves Copperhead. In his last three tries at the course, he’s finished T13, T3 and T10. Thomas would have loved to get a win at a big event early in the season, but avoidable mistakes and a balky putter have cost him dearly. I believe a trip to a course he loves in a field he should be able to capitalize on is the right recipe for JT to right the ship.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (FanDuel)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is playing spectacular golf in the 2024 season. He finished 2nd at the American Express, T20 at Pebble Beach and T24 at the Genesis Invitational before finishing T13 at last week’s PLAYERS Championship.

In his past 24 rounds, the South African ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 26th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. Bezuidenhout managed to work his way around TPC Sawgrass last week with minimal damage. He only made five bogeys in the entire week, which is a great sign heading into a difficult Copperhead this week.

Bezuidenhout is winless in his PGA Tour career, but certainly has the talent to win on Tour. His recent iron play tells me that this week could be a breakthrough for the 35-year-old who has eyes on the President’s Cup.

Doug Ghim +8000 (FanDuel)

Doug Ghim has finished in the top-16 of his past five starts. Most recently, Ghim finished T16 at The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field.

In his past 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 5th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. In terms of his fit for Copperhead, the 27-year-old ranks 12th in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions, making him a great fit for the course.

Ghim has yet to win on Tour, but at one point he was the top ranked Amateur golfer in the world and played in the 2017 Arnold Palmer Cup and 2017 Walker Cup. He then won the Ben Hogan award for the best male college golfer in 2018. He certainly has the talent, and there are signals aplenty that his talent in ready to take him to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour.

Sepp Straka +8000 (BetRivers)

Sepp Straka is a player who’s shown he has the type of game that can translate to a difficult Florida golf course. The former Presidents Cup participant won the 2022 Honda Classic in tough conditions and should thrive with a similar test at Copperhead.

It’s been a slow 2024 for Straka, but his performance last week at the PLAYERS Championship surely provides some optimism. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach as well as 1.88 strokes off the tee. The tee-to-green game Straka showed on a course with plenty of danger demonstrates that he can stay in control of his golf ball this week.

It’s possible that the strong performance last week was an outlier, but I’m willing to bet on a proven winner in a weaker field at a great number.

Victor Perez +12000 (FanDuel)

Victor Perez is no stranger to success in professional golf. The Frenchman has three DP World Tour wins including a Rolex Series event. He won the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, as well as the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which are some big events.

Perez earned his PGA Tour card this season and enters the week playing some fantastic golf. He finished in a tie for 16th in Florida at the Cognizant Classic and then tied for third in his most recent start at the Puerto Rico Open.

In his past 24 rounds in the field, Perez ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 1oth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Good Drive % and 15th in Bogey Avoidance.

Perez comes in as a perfect fit for Copperhead and offers serious value at triple-digit odds.

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