Opinion & Analysis

The Wedge Guy: The highest loft you should carry

Published

5 years ago

May 14, 2019

I am starting to get more and more emails from you all, sharing your own personal questions and comments about what I’m writing. Thank you all for doing that and for taking the time to share. I will do my best to answer all of you individually, but realize that as the mailbox gets more and more full, that may be hard to do.

That said, I did get a few emails this past week asking for my thoughts about the highest loft wedge you should carry, so I thought that would make a good topic for today’s post. But first, let me share that I did my first GolfWRX podcast this week, and had a great time doing it. You can listen here.

So, now on to the big question that so many golfers have: What is the highest loft wedge I should carry?

Let me start with a bit of history of putting wedges in our bags, as that might help make sense of the subject for each of you.

After the invention of the sand wedge in the 1930s, a design generally credited to Gene Sarazen, most golfers began to carry one. Did you know that the 1930s was also the decade that witnessed one of the greatest contributions to modern golf clubs, the numbered and matched set of irons? Well, from that time through the 1940s, most golfers relegated that club to only those shots hit from the sand. Most “sand wedges” from that time until the mid-1980s were about 55-56 degrees in loft, but loft was not a specification that many paid much attention to. Sets of irons had a “pitching wedge” of about 50-52 degrees, and that was the more generally used wedge for greenside shots. However, in his 1949 book, “Power Golf,” Ben Hogan wrote that the sand wedge could be a great tool for certain greenside shots.

Through the 1940s, 50s, 60s, 70s, and 80s, most of golf’s biggest stars only carried one “wedge” after their set-match pitching wedge. Many of them used that club to great success, and we witnessed near genius in the likes of Tom Watson, Phil Rogers, Seven Ballesteros and others.

It was the late 1980s, I believe, when Tom Kite began using the first 60-degree wedge to great success. They say he was deadly from his “magic number” — 63 yards, as I remember. I do know those first 60-degree wedges had very large heavy soles, with very pronounced camber from front to back. And they were very difficult to master for most recreational golfers.

Since that time, the higher lofted wedges began to take on more of the look of the traditional sand wedge, and the loft selection was expanded in both directions, with this design applied to wedges as low as 46 degrees and as high as 64. I believe Phil Mickelson gave the lofts over 60 degrees more visibility and curiosity than anyone.

So, with all these choices, what do each of you do with regard to deciding how high to go with the loft of your wedges? The reality is that the answer to that question is different for everyone but let me try to help you make sense of the process.

My observation is that the lofts over about 57-58 degrees are much more challenging to master for most recreational golfers. As loft increases above that level, controlling ball flight and distance becomes more and more difficult. Most golfers just have a hard time making as full a swing as required to move the ball a given distance with these high loft wedges. That said, I have seen recreational golfers that do a great job and use their high-loft wedges to great utility. But that number is very small in my estimation.

The biggest “fail” with the high loft wedges is making contact with the leading edge or very low on the face, either of which imparts much more dynamic force to the ball and sends it screaming over the green into a worse lie than you started with. Right behind that is the tendency to “bail out” on this fuller swing and decelerate before impact, laying the sod over on the ball, and having a similar result.

I do believe that mastering the higher lofted wedges of 60-64 degrees requires a great deal of practice, hitting all kinds of shots from whatever distance you consider “full” to delicate greenside chips and pitches. If you can take the time to do that, then you might turn that high-loft wedge into a powerful scoring tool. But if you don’t…well, my bet is that it will cost you more shots than it saves.

As I’ve already shared, I firmly believe you should select wedges that give you consistent distance differentials on full swings from your set-match 9-iron or “P-club,” all the way down to your 56-58 wedge. For most golfers that differential should be not more than 12-13 yards for optimum scoring. Depending on your strength profile, those loft differences could be as wide as 5-6 degrees, but 4 seems like it works for the vast majority of golfers.

Whether you choose to carry a wedge with a higher loft than that should be left to your own experiences with it, and an honest assessment as to whether that club should have a place in your bag.

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Terry Koehler

Terry Koehler is a fourth generation Texan and a graduate of Texas A&M University. Over his 40-year career in the golf industry, he has created over 100 putter designs, sets of irons and drivers, and in 2014, he put together the team that reintroduced the Ben Hogan brand to the golf equipment industry. Since the early 2000s, Terry has been a prolific writer, sharing his knowledge as “The Wedge Guy”. But his most compelling work is in the wedge category. Since he first patented his “Koehler Sole” in the early 1990s, he has been challenging “conventional wisdom” reflected in ‘tour design’ wedges. The performance of his wedge designs have stimulated other companies to move slightly more mass toward the top of the blade in their wedges, but none approach the dramatic design of his Edison Forged wedges, which have been robotically proven to significantly raise the bar for wedge performance. Terry serves as Chairman and Director of Innovation for Edison Golf – check it out at www.EdisonWedges.com.

47 Comments

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Lefthack

Dec 13, 2020 at 10:34 am

When I decided to refresh my 20 year old bag, I got an AW, a 56 and a 60 thinking I was missing something having only a SW bellow my set matched PW. After getting new irons, I realized I wasn’t using either the AW or the 60 and was doing everything with either the PW or 56.

It might be due to the fact I used my old SW for anything 20 yards or more off the green. The rest is PW out to 80 yards. But now I have 2 wedges I don’t use.

Reply Report comment
ChipNRun

Jan 25, 2020 at 9:40 am

PGA tour stats validate Terry’s comment on 57*-58* being upper limit on what most amateur golfers can handle. On tour, half the golfers have 58* as their highest lofted wedge.

When I redid my wedges two seasons back, I went with Callaway MD3 in 48* and 54* and an MD-PM in a high-toe 60*/10.

The 60* was good for certain greenside shots, but I had distance control problems and it was iffy for anything more than a half swing. It did NOT work out of junk lies – 54* much better.

An MD4 58*/8 C-grind has replaced the 60*. MD4 much easier to control on distance, and just overall easier to use. Took me about 10 shots to get used to it.

My brother, however, is a different story. I gave him a brand X 60* that was a golf clinic give-away, and he does magic tricks with the thing. (He does limit it to half swings). Whatever works!

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joro

Jun 20, 2019 at 9:25 am

I looked at a 64 the other day and it looked like the Ball would come straight up hit he in my Juevos. No Thanks, 58 is just fight.

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Christopher Hansen

Jun 12, 2019 at 5:45 pm

5 index. I have carried a 4-wedge setup for years. 45, 52, 56, 60. Why? Because I get predictable coverage at all distances inside of 140 yds. I can open up the 60 to flop or for delicate bunker shots.

My favorite wedge of all time has to be the SM5 64 from Titelist. Sadly, they don’t make them anymore (but I still have one, heavily used). A 64 imparts big spin, and you can get balls to stop on a dime if executed properly. Very handy for sand, delicate greenside chips, and tight pin placements over hazards with very little green to work with. I only stopped carrying my 64 because it was so worn its grooves looked a bit questionable. I never picked up the Mac Daddy 64 when it came out. I’ve generally avoided Callaway as a brand (although I’m sure there’s no *real* difference for most people). Call me a wedge snob, but Vokey’s are still king.

I’d love to see the 64 made in a Taylor Made wedge (or bring back the Titelist model).

Reply Report comment
- Bob vokey
  
  Dec 6, 2019 at 9:50 pm
  
  Wedge snob and wrong. Look at any flight monitor and Vokey is king in name only.
  
  Reply Report comment
Distance Compression Dude

Jun 9, 2019 at 3:46 pm

90 degrees.

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James T

May 25, 2019 at 7:26 pm

“…we witnessed near genius in the likes of Tom Watson, Phil Rogers, Seven Ballesteros and others.”

Terry… I’m glad your word correction program fixed it for you. Just a bit surprised it didn’t change it to Seven Ball and Stereos!

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Wally

May 24, 2019 at 11:57 am

I have a 60* and an old TM 64* wedge but I don’t carry them because I’m so inconsistent with them. You almost have to have the perfect lie to hit those clubs and at the courses that I play, very seldom do I get the manicured grass needed to hit those clubs. The highest lofted club that I carry is a 58* Ping Stealth or Cleveland RTX4 and even then I don’t take full swings with them.

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ChipNRun

May 22, 2019 at 11:58 am

Terry K. said…

“My observation is that the lofts over about 57-58 degrees are much more challenging to master for most recreational golfers.”

A couple of years ago, Golf Digest reported that half the male tour pros use a 58* as their highest-lofted wedge.

As for pre-1980s role of SW, I would differ with Terry. Lots of players – including me – used a SW for greenside cut shots long before the LW arrived. First-cut lie = PW, shaggy lie = SW.

Also, golf-ball designer Dean Snell has another angle on wedge problems of mid-HDCP golfers: harder distance balls. Dean suggests that a urethane ball will grab the clubface better on higher-lofted clubs such as wedges, and give better spin and control to ALL golfer.

I carry a 48-54-60, mainly because I found a 60* I could hit. Big distance control problems with earlier 60* adventures.

Also, many golfers only hit partial shots with SW and LW, as per Juststeve.

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G

May 21, 2019 at 2:51 pm

I remember the year G Mac won the U.S. Open at Pebble Beach. The lowest wedge in his bag was a 56*. Spoke with him during the Wednesday practice round and asked him why only one sand wedge. he said because it’s his best club for that course!

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slash

May 20, 2019 at 8:38 pm

46* is the squish club for an 85% shot that the 54* can’t be relied upon for a full swing
54* is for long bunker and squishable 60* shots
60* is for a rare full swing, bunkers, lobs (long and short) as well as big rough

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Howard Clark

May 20, 2019 at 8:32 am

I am scratch but, having said that, I can atke anyone’s 56, fan it open going back, and turn it into a 64.

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- Steve O
  
  May 29, 2019 at 6:02 am
  
  I’m a 3 and if I fan it open I can get the shanks. So I carry the loft that requires no adjustments, just as I do with my other irons.
  
  Reply Report comment
- Hank Hill
  
  Dec 6, 2019 at 9:52 pm
  
  I’m sure you can, Boomer.
  
  Reply Report comment
Frank

May 19, 2019 at 5:49 pm

Play in a real pro tournament and all those short side misses with the real tucked pins will 100% convince you to carry a 64 degree wedge, there’s a reason both DJ and Phil carry 64 degree wedges and it’s absolutely for those short shots with no green to work with.

Reply Report comment
- Tiger Noods
  
  Jun 24, 2019 at 5:36 am
  
  Play as much as a pro, and you too can play any loft your heart desires.
  
  Reply Report comment
Sp4cetime

May 19, 2019 at 4:28 pm

In your podcast you suggest that forged tour wedges are a detriment to your average golfer. What do you suggest as an alternative?

Reply Report comment
- Andrew
  
  May 21, 2019 at 6:38 pm
  
  Cleveland CBX. I have the 52, 56, and 60 degree.
  
  Reply Report comment
Phillip Pearson

May 18, 2019 at 3:14 pm

I love my 62* wedge. Yes it took practice BUT when you learn it , it’s a great club. From 65 yards in I can get it close most of the time. If you go out and practice the high lofted wedge at the practice range I think you will learn to love that high lofted wedge

Reply Report comment
- Zach Bartness
  
  May 19, 2019 at 2:12 pm
  
  What’s your wedge setup with the 62*?
  
  Reply Report comment
Geoffrey Holland

May 18, 2019 at 3:43 am

“It was the late 1980s, I believe, when Tom Kite began using the first 60-degree wedge to great success.”

Actually he started playing a lob wedge in 1980. Quite a big difference from your completely incorrect anecdotal evidence.

I bought my first 60 degree wedge not long after Tom Watson won the US open in 1982 and Ram released the wedge series with his name on them. I’ve carried a Ram Tom Watson 60 degree wedge in my bag for probably 95% of the rounds I’ve ever played in my life.

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JG

May 15, 2019 at 9:25 am

The gapping and the sole is the most important in my estimation. I have rolled with setups like 50/55/60 and I currently game 50/54/58. If your scoring wedges aren’t properly dialed in correctly what’s the point. You just eliminated your ability to score…

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James

May 15, 2019 at 9:12 am

No one going to pick up on the seven Ballesteros’ in the list of great names?

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JThunder

May 15, 2019 at 1:58 am

“The highest loft you should carry” is like saying “the largest size shoes you should wear”. People are individuals. The corporate world and the internet desperately wish they were not, so it would be easier to make profits by selling everyone the same thing. This includes advice.

If you want to know “the highest loft”, either work with a pro you trust who knows your swing and game, or find out for yourself. You can carry 14 clubs according to the rules. Generic advice won’t get you any further than what you already know, unless you’re new to the game.

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TD

May 15, 2019 at 12:41 am

I have a Ping G25 PW(45°) UW(50°) and a Vokey SM6 56°/M-8 and that’s all i ever need

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CG

May 14, 2019 at 5:13 pm

I like a 60* wedge with low bounce and wide flange. It’s my go to club around the greens. I honestly don’t see how people get by without a lob wedge. I watch them hit chips that run out too far and think, why? Learn to use a lob wedge!

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- JG
  
  May 15, 2019 at 9:22 am
  
  Because an average golfer (practice or plays once a week) who knows how to chip properly will see far lower scores than if they attempt to master a 60. Learning how to chip is just proper setup and making a putting stroke. Mastering a 60 takes practice and touch which the average once a week player doesn’t have at their disposal.
  
  Reply Report comment
  - Boris Yeltsin
    
    Dec 6, 2019 at 9:55 pm
    
    Learning how to chip is the same with any club. Making the same stroke with different clubs is how you control distance. Good try.
    
    Reply Report comment
  - Buckeye Doug
    
    Jan 3, 2020 at 4:41 pm
    
    Agreed a weekend duffer has a difficult time adjusting to a 60*. I used to play 52/56, now I play 52/56/60, i am not sure it has changed my score, but have several shots on my courses which are pitches between 10-30 yards
    
    Reply Report comment
JP

May 14, 2019 at 4:35 pm

Phil has been doing it wrong!

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Thomas Prosserr

May 14, 2019 at 3:06 pm

48pw a 56sw an a 60lw covers it all. Feel is the most important aspect of it. If it feels good do it. Me an my buds arent good enough to say you gota hit a certain club from a particular yardage an we all shoot about 10hdcp. yrstlawy in pa

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Nanananana

May 14, 2019 at 3:04 pm

Nobody will take away my 64 degree bent to 67 away from me. It does wonders around tight lies and checks the ball like it has a string attached

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- 3puttPar
  
  May 29, 2019 at 12:55 pm
  
  Sounds like you need to hit more GIR’s.
  
  Reply Report comment
Rich Douglas

May 14, 2019 at 2:45 pm

I play Wishon Sterling single-length irons. My set is 4-iron through lob wedge (60 degrees).

I started out playing traditional SW and LW, but those clubs began to feel funny. I added the Wishon versions–which are the length of an 8-iron and struggled with them at first. Some back-and-forth ensued, but I stuck with the SW first, then the LW. I’m not interested in going back.

I play a course that’s short and all the greens are Donald Ross-style pop-ups; small and elevated. Almost every approach shot is hit with a wedge, and all shots around the green have to be hit high and soft or they won’t stay. Sure, you can try to run them up the slopes, but that’s a guessing game. I have no trouble anymore hitting lob shots with my LW opened way up. The swing is a little flatter, but it’s not a problem.

But the best part of these wedges is hitting them from the fairway. It’s nice to use the same swing planes (back and down) I use with all my other wedges. That was the point of going to single-length clubs; the SW and LW complete the experiment. I’m never going back!

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Pete

May 14, 2019 at 2:02 pm

Funny, the 60′ is one of the few clubs I goet a consistent distance with full swing. Handy 18

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Scratchscorer

May 14, 2019 at 1:46 pm

If the bounce and lie angle are a good match then I see no problem with 60 degrees. It’s all about getting those two things right and then finding the lofts that fit your eye and give you the ball flight you expect from your shots.

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PSG

May 14, 2019 at 1:26 pm

Right. So “in your estimation” you “have seen a lot” of high handicappers that are not good with high lofted wedges.

It is the exhaustive research and hard-hitting data that makes this article so good.

I’ll save everyone else some time: “I think 57-58 is too much, because I can see the loft on the wedge watching most people hit. So, eh, have good gaps I guess. Who knows. This changes if you practice some.”

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RudyV

May 14, 2019 at 1:23 pm

I’m 62 and I never carried anything more than my Pitching wedge until about 15 years ago…my PW has a loft of 46 degrees so my next wedge is 50 then 54…I find it very difficult, for myself, to hit a loft larger than that consistently but I do almost always take a full swing with my wedges…I’m not as long as I used to be but I do find it advantageous on wedge shots to try and take full swings…as I said, that works for me…then again if I can’t get to the green on my second shot I will put myself as close to 100 yards out as I can…for me, that’s my 50 degree at a full swing

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Dayunski

May 14, 2019 at 10:57 am

I’m a 12. I use 50, 54 and 58. My benchmark distances for regular full swings are 100, 85 and 70. I practice 3/4 and 2/3 swings. In theory, I have a swing in 5 yard increments from 60-105 yards. The wedge I use also depends on how I want to land the ball and how much green to work with. Works for me 70% of the time.

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~j~

May 14, 2019 at 10:44 am

when first swinging a club around age 16-17, I had an old dunlop 64* I used to mess around with in a park beside my house, walk out at anytime with a few cold beers and spend an hour + just hitting it back and forth to things (had 100y or so of ample space).

I wouldn’t touch a 64* now, but I bank on my 60* Vokey from 105y and in every round. I wouldn’t recommend it to my golfing peers but I’ve always been able to scale the 60* to whatever distance needed, and it sticks like a dart.

I’ve hear the arguments against it, things like one could lay a 56* open and have the same effect. True, but I’d rather take a full swing with a squared club than one that’s held wide open.

My 2 wedges I carry are 50-08* and 60-04*. 60* gets me up to 105y max, and a 75% 50* gets me from 100y up to 130 comfortably before my PW takes over. Just enough space between wedges to allow a choice, but anything within 100y is normally my 60-04* vokey, unless I need a little more bounce.

Reply Report comment
- Christian Larsson
  
  May 22, 2019 at 2:29 am
  
  You had a habit of drinking a few beers….at 16 years of age?
  
  Reply Report comment
  - James T
    
    May 25, 2019 at 7:46 pm
    
    Swing lubricant.
    
    Reply Report comment
- Gene Seretore
  
  Dec 9, 2019 at 12:58 pm
  
  Upon further review, this comment has been flagged as fake news.
  
  Reply Report comment
Juststeve

May 14, 2019 at 10:23 am

Consistent full swing distance gaps, 12-13 yards is of little significance to me since it is very seldom I make a full swing with any of my “distance wedges”. I carry a 50, a 54, and a 58, but, inside about 80 yards I will most likely be making a partial swing with any of my wedges depending on the trajectory I want and how I want the ball to act after it lands. Full swing carry distances are irrelevant to me.

Reply Report comment
- Alex Corona
  
  May 14, 2019 at 11:11 am
  
  So you don’t hit full swing wedges? what do you hit at 135yrds pin but carry 132 yrds? Full swing wedges matter as well as charting partial swing wedges. Both are valuable but saying full carry distances are irrelevant doesn’t make a ton of sense to me.
  
  Reply Report comment
  - Juststeve
    
    May 14, 2019 at 12:24 pm
    
    From 135 I hit a nine iron, in real life, on the internet it’s a little sand wedge.
    
    It’s not that I never hit a stock wedge, but it’s seldom I find myself on the number just to hit a full wedge. Much more often I am inside the full wedge range for any of my wedges trying to figure out how to best get the ball close to the hole. In that large majority of cases how far I hit the club with a full swing has very little to do with the club I choose. I’m not going to make a full swing with any of the wedges.
    
    Reply Report comment

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Opinion & Analysis

The Wedge Guy: What really makes a wedge work? Part 1

Published

4 hours ago

Apr 18, 2024

Terry Koehler

Of all the clubs in our bags, wedges are almost always the simplest in construction and, therefore, the easiest to analyze what might make one work differently from another if you know what to look for.

Wedges are a lot less mysterious than drivers, of course, as the major brands are working with a lot of “pixie dust” inside these modern marvels. That’s carrying over more to irons now, with so many new models featuring internal multi-material technologies, and almost all of them having a “badge” or insert in the back to allow more complex graphics while hiding the actual distribution of mass.

But when it comes to wedges, most on the market today are still single pieces of molded steel, either cast or forged into that shape. So, if you look closely at where the mass is distributed, it’s pretty clear how that wedge is going to perform.

To start, because of their wider soles, the majority of the mass of almost any wedge is along the bottom third of the clubhead. So, the best wedge shots are always those hit between the 2nd and 5th grooves so that more mass is directly behind that impact. Elite tour professionals practice incessantly to learn to do that consistently, wearing out a spot about the size of a penny right there. If impact moves higher than that, the face is dramatically thinner, so smash factor is compromised significantly, which reduces the overall distance the ball will fly.

Every one of us, tour players included, knows that maddening shot that we feel a bit high on the face and it doesn’t go anywhere, it’s not your fault.

If your wedges show a wear pattern the size of a silver dollar, and centered above the 3rd or 4th groove, you are not getting anywhere near the same performance from shot to shot. Robot testing proves impact even two to three grooves higher in the face can cause distance loss of up to 35 to 55 feet with modern ‘tour design’ wedges.

In addition, as impact moves above the center of mass, the golf club principle of gear effect causes the ball to fly higher with less spin. Think of modern drivers for a minute. The “holy grail” of driving is high launch and low spin, and the driver engineers are pulling out all stops to get the mass as low in the clubhead as possible to optimize this combination.

Where is all the mass in your wedges? Low. So, disregarding the higher lofts, wedges “want” to launch the ball high with low spin – exactly the opposite of what good wedge play requires penetrating ball flight with high spin.

While almost all major brand wedges have begun putting a tiny bit more thickness in the top portion of the clubhead, conventional and modern ‘tour design’ wedges perform pretty much like they always have. Elite players learn to hit those crisp, spinny penetrating wedge shots by spending lots of practice time learning to consistently make contact low in the face.

So, what about grooves and face texture?

Grooves on any club can only do so much, and no one has any material advantage here. The USGA tightly defines what we manufacturers can do with grooves and face texture, and modern manufacturing techniques allow all of us to push those limits ever closer. And we all do. End of story.

Then there’s the topic of bounce and grinds, the most complex and confusing part of the wedge formula. Many top brands offer a complex array of sole configurations, all of them admittedly specialized to a particular kind of lie or turf conditions, and/or a particular divot pattern.

But if you don’t play the same turf all the time, and make the same size divot on every swing, how would you ever figure this out?

The only way is to take any wedge you are considering and play it a few rounds, hitting all the shots you face and observing the results. There’s simply no other way.

So, hopefully this will inspire a lively conversation in our comments section, and I’ll chime in to answer any questions you might have.

And next week, I’ll dive into the rest of the wedge formula. Yes, shafts, grips and specifications are essential, too.

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Golf's Perfect Imperfections

Golf’s Perfect Imperfections: Amazing Session with Performance Coach Savannah Meyer-Clement

Published

4 hours ago

Apr 18, 2024

GolfWRX Staff

In this week’s episode, we spent some time with performance coach Savannah Meyer-Clement who provides many useful insights that you’ll be able to implement on the golf course.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 RBC Heritage betting preview: Patrick Cantlay ready to get back inside winner’s circle

Published

3 days ago

Apr 15, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

Just a two-hour drive from Augusta National, the PGA TOUR heads to Harbour Town Golf Links in Hilton Head Island, S.C. Hilton Head Island is a golfer’s paradise and Harbour Town is one of the most beautiful and scenic courses on the PGA TOUR.

Harbour Town Golf Links is a par-71 that measures 7,121 yards and features Bermuda grass greens. A Pete Dye design, the course is heavily tree lined and features small greens and many dog legs, protecting it from “bomb-and-gauge” type golfers.

The field is loaded this week with 69 golfers with no cut. Last year was quite possibly the best field in RBC Heritage history and the event this week is yet another designated event, meaning there is a $20 million prize pool.

Most of the big names on the PGA Tour will be in attendance this week with the exceptions of Hideki Matsuyama and Viktor Hovland. Additionally, Webb Simpson, Shane Lowry, Gary Woodland and Kevin Kisner have been granted sponsors exemptions.

Past Winners at Harbour Town

2023: Matt Fitzpatrick (-17)
2022: Jordan Spieth (-13)
2021: Stewart Cink (-19)
2020: Webb Simpson (-22)
2019: CT Pan (-12)
2018: Sotoshi Kodaira (-12)
2017: Wesley Bryan (-13)
2016: Branden Grace (-9)
2015: Jim Furyk (-18)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value).

Key Stats For Harbour Town

Let’s take a look at key metrics for Harbour Town Golf Links to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their past 24 rounds.

Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach is exceedingly important this week. The greens at Harbour Town are about half the size of PGA TOUR average and feature the second-smallest greens on the tour. Typical of a Pete Dye design, golfers will pay the price for missed greens.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

Scottie Scheffler (+1.27)
Tom Hoge (+1.27)
Corey Conners (+1.16)
Austin Eckroat (+0.95)
Cameron Young (+0.93)

Good Drive %

The fairways at Harbour Town are tree lined and feature many dog legs. Bombers tend to struggle at the course because it forces layups and doesn’t allow long drivers to overpower it. Accuracy is far more important than power.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

Brice Garnett (88.8%)
Shane Lowry (+87.2%)
Akshay Bhatia (+86.0%)
Si Woo Kim (+85.8%)
Sepp Straka (+85.1%)

Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye Designs

Pete Dye specialists tend to play very well at Harbour Town. Si Woo Kim, Matt Kuchar, Jim Furyk and Webb Simpson are all Pete Dye specialists who have had great success here. It is likely we see some more specialists near the top of the leaderboard this week.

SG: TOT Pete Dye per round over past 36 rounds:

Xander Schauffele (+2.27)
Scottie Scheffler (+2.24)
Ludvig Aberg (+2.11)
Brian Harman (+1.89)
Sungjae Im (+1.58)

4. Strokes Gained: Short Game (Bermuda)

Strokes Gained: Short Game factors in both around the green and putting. With many green-side bunkers and tricky green complexes, both statistics will be important. Past winners — such as Jim Furyk, Wes Bryan and Webb Simpson — highlight how crucial the short game skill set is around Harbour Town.

SG: SG Over Past 24 Rounds

Jordan Spieth (+1.11)
Taylor Moore (+1.02)
Wyndham Clark (+0.98)
Mackenzie Hughes (+0.86)
Andrew Putnam (+0.83)

5. Greens in Regulation %

The recipe for success at Harbour Town Golf Links is hitting fairways and greens. Missing either will prove to be consequential — golfers must be in total control of the ball to win.

Greens in Regulation % over past 24 rounds:

Brice Garnett (+75.0%)
Scottie Scheffler (+69.9%)
Corey Conners (+69.0%)
Shane Lowry (+68.3%)
Patrick Rodgers (+67.6%)

6. Course History

Harbour Town is a course where players who have strong past results at the course always tend to pop up.

Course History over past 24 rounds:

Patrick Cantlay (+2.34)
Cam Davis (+2.05)
J.T. Poston (+1.69)
Justin Rose (+1.68)
Tommy Fleetwood (+1.59)

The RBC Heritage Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (24%), Good Drives (20%), SG: SG (14%), SG: Pete Dye (14%), GIR (14%), and Course History (14%)

Shane Lowry
Russell Henley
Scottie Scheffler
Xander Schauffele
Corey Conners
Wyndham Clark
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
Matt Fitzpatrick
Cameron Young
Ludvig Aberg

2024 RBC Heritage Picks

Patrick Cantlay +2000 (FanDuel)

With the exception of Scottie Scheffler, the PGA Tour has yet to have any of their star players show peak form during the 2024 season. Last week, Patrick Cantlay, who I believe is a top-5 players on the PGA Tour, took one step closer to regaining the form that’s helped him win eight events on Tour since 2017.

Cantlay limped into the Masters in poor form, but figured it out at Augusta National, finishing in a tie for 20th and ranking 17th for the week in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. The former FedEx Cup champion will now head to one of his favorite golf courses in Harbour Town, where he’s had immaculate results over the years. In his six trips to the course, he’s only finished worse than 7th one time. The other finishes include three third places (2017, 2019, 2023) and one runner-up finish (2022). In his past 36 rounds at Harbour Town, Cantlay ranks 1st in Strokes Gained: Total per round at the course by a wide margin (+2.36).

Cantlay is winless since the 2022 BMW Championship, which is far too long for a player of his caliber. With signs pointing to the 32-year-old returning to form, a “signature event” at Harbour Town is just what he needs to get back on the winning track.

Tommy Fleetwood +3000 (FanDuel)

I truly believe Tommy Fleetwood will figure out a way to win on American soil in 2024. It’s certainly been a bugaboo for him throughout his career, but he is simply too talented to go another season without winning a PGA Tour event.

At last week’s Masters Tournament, Fleetwood made a Sunday charge and ended up finishing T3 in the event, which was his best ever finish at The Masters. For the week, the Englishman ranked 8th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, 10th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking and 16th in Strokes Gained: Putting.

Harbour Town is a perfect layout for Fleetwood, and he’s had relative success at this Pete Dye design in the past. In his four trips to the course, he’s finished inside of the top 25 three times, with his best finish, T10, coming in 2022. The course is pretty short and can’t be overpowered, which gives an advantage to more accurate players such as Fleetwood. Tommy ranks 8th in the field in Good Drive % and should be able to plot his way along this golf course.

The win is coming for Tommy lad. I believe there’s a chance this treasure of a golf course may be the perfect one for him to finally break through on Tour.

Cameron Young +3300 (FanDuel)

Cameron Young had a solid Masters Tournament last week, which is exactly what I’m looking for in players who I anticipate playing well this week at the RBC Heritage. He finished in a tie for 9th, but never felt the pressure of contending in the event. For the week, Young ranked 6th in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking.

Despite being one of the longest players off the tee on the PGA Tour, Young has actually played some really good golf on shorter tracks. He finished T3 at Harbour Town in 2023 and ranks 20th in the field in Good Drive% and 16th in Greens in Regulation in his past 24 rounds. He also has strong finishes at other shorter courses that can take driver out of a players hand such as Copperhead and PGA National.

Young is simply one of the best players on the PGA Tour in 2024, and I strongly believe has what it takes to win a PGA Tour event in the very near future.

Corey Conners +5500 (FanDuel)

Corey Conners has had a disappointing year thus far on the PGA Tour, but absolutely loves Harbour Town.

At last week’s Masters Tournament, the Canadian finished T30 but ranked 20th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach. In his past 24 rounds, Conners ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, 3rd in Greens in Regulation % and 24th in Good Drive %.

In Conners’ last four trips to Harbour Town, his worst finish was T31, last season. He finished T4 in 2021, T12 in 2022 and ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Total at the course over his past 36 rounds.

Conners hasn’t been contending, but his recent finishes have been encouraging as he has finished in the top-25 in each of his past three starts prior to The Masters, including an impressive T13 at The PLAYERS. His recent improvement in ball striking as well as his suitability for Harbour Town makes Conners a high upside bet this week.

Shane Lowry (+7500) (FanDuel)

When these odds were posted after Lowry was announced in the field, I have to admit I was pretty stunned. Despite not offering much win equity on the PGA Tour over the last handful of years, Shane Lowry is still a top caliber player who has the ability to rise to the top of a signature event.

Lowry struggled to score at The Masters last week, but he actually hit the ball really well. The Irishman ranked 1st for Strokes Gained: Approach on the week and 7th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. As usual, it was the putter that let him down, as he ranked 60th in the field in Strokes Gained: Putting.

Harbour Town is most definitely one of Lowry’s favorite courses on the PGA Tour. In his six starts there, he’s finished in the top 10 three times, including third twice. Lowry is sensational at Pete Dye designs and ranks 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in his past 36 rounds on Dye tracks.

Lowry is perfect for Harbour Town. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 5th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 2nd in Good Drive% and 5th in Green in Regulation %. If he figures it out on the greens, Shane could have his first win in America since 2015.

Lucas Glover +12000 (FanDuel)

This is one of my weekly “bet the number” plays as I strongly believe the odds are just too long for a player of Glover’s caliber. The odds have been too long on Glover for a few weeks now, but this is the first event that I can get behind the veteran being able to actually contend at.

Glover is quietly playing good golf and returning to the form he had after the understandable regression after his two massive victories at the end of 2023. He finished T20 at The Masters, which was his best ever finish at Augusta National. For the week, Lucas ranked 18th for Strokes Gained: Approach and 20th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking.

Over his past 24 rounds, Glover ranks 9th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 13th in Good Drive %. Harbour Town is a short course that the 44-year-old will be able to keep up with the top players on Tour off the tee. He’s played the course more than 20 times, with mixed results. His best finishes at Harbour Town include a T7 in 2008, but recently has a finish of T21 in 2020.

Glover has proven he can contend with the stars of the Tour on any given week, and this number is flat out disrespectful.

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