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Catching up with a pair of innovative companies ahead of the PGA Merchandise Show

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Golf is a game of numbers and statistics. Average driver “carry” yardage. Total footage of putts holed per round. FedEx Cup rankings. Three holes up, two to play. Number of majors won. Course and personal record low scores. 14 golf clubs. 9- and 18-hole courses. Par 72. Holes-in-one. $5 Nassaus…

Appropriately, numbers will permeate the 2019 PGA Merchandise Show, the game’s annual industry summit, when it occurs later this month in Orlando (Jan. 22 Demo Day at Orange County National Golf Center; Jan. 23-26 PGA Show Exhibits at Orange County Convention Center).

This will be the 66th iteration of what has become an international golf business event. More than 1,000 golf companies and brands will be on display within nearly 10 miles of show aisles. One million square feet of interactive exhibit, product demonstration and industry presentation space. More than 40,000 PGA Professionals, manufacturing execs, VIP retailers, countless industry leaders and decision-makers.

As fascinating and insightful, fulfilling and frustrating, useful and sometimes useless golf numbers can be (most golfers couldn’t care less about how many dimples are on a golf ball), numerical figures don’t capture the human stories behind product innovations in the game, or articles for sale displayed at the PGA Merchandise Show.

Inspiration is a funny thing. You never know when it will strike. It’s often random, a common sense “Aha! Moment.” When it hits, fasten the seat belts, because vigorous, passionate action typically ensues.

Such was the case for ClickCaddie founder Scott Danielson and Kyle Klubertanz, who grew up together in Sun Prairie, Wisc. Their golf accessory core product was founded based on an idea that percolated during a round of golf in Fall 2017. They had their phones in the golf cart cup holders and were using them to play music and for course GPS information. After buying a round of drinks, they moved their phones to the front compartments where they clanged around, and they couldn’t hear their music or access their phones simply. “We realized there was no good place in the golf cart to put our phones; to use for GPS, music or golf-scoring apps,” said Danielson, ClickCaddie CEO. “We thought there had to be a better way.”

And so there was, they concluded, and it lay in the ubiquitous golf ball holders. “Every cart has them. They’re seldom used, and they’re the perfect mounting spot,” said Danielson.

golf innovation, golfers, golf courses

Scott Danielson and Kyle Klubertanz, ClickCaddie co-founders

They started designing, and their first “proof of concept” consisted of a bulky phone holder bought off Amazon, with a golf ball duct taped to the bottom. It was around that time when magnetic phone attachments for cars caught their attention, which provided easy use and more accessibility. Fast forward through about seven designs and prototypes, multiple magnets, and ClickCaddie officially launched its patent-pending product design in April 2018.

golf cart, golf lifestyle, phone accessories

ClickCaddie is a solution to the frustration its co-founders experienced when using their phones for multiple purposes while playing golf.

The silicone black cover can be custom branded and printed upon, adding an additional revenue stream through the promotional product arena (golf course logos, corporate branding, commemorative golf event gifts, etc.).

Danielson said the company and product has “taken off” since last April. “We have consumers that have used our product in 49 states – Alaska being the exception – we have sold thousands of units, and we launched on Amazon in time for the holiday gift buying season. As we move toward our second year, we are excited to showcase ClickCaddie at the PGA Merchandise Show. It’s very relatable to golfers and buyers across the country, and we’re excited to take that next step into growing the B2B side of our business, while continuing with our strategy to engage our end users for feedback.”

golf clubs, golf industry, PGA Merchandise Show

Necessity was the mother of invention for the founders of ClickCaddie.

While Danielson and Klubertanz founded ClickCaddie to make the golf experience more enjoyable peripheral to the core activity of playing the game, Sal Syed co-founded Arccos through his love for golf and technology, and his belief that golfers accessing real-time data, shot by shot, could help them improve.

First launched in late 2014, Arccos’ patented GPS-based hardware and software system have led to company products that include Caddie Smart Sensors, Caddie Smart Grips and the Arccos Driver. In short, “they combine the power of Artificial Intelligence and the Microsoft Azure cloud,” said Syed, Arccos CEO.

In lay terms, Arccos products have automatically recorded more than 60 million shots taken by golfers playing on courses worldwide. By analyzing each shot in real time, the company provides data-driven insights that help golfers improve their performance by eliminating guesswork and using statistical facts and feedback. This has led Arccos to stake claim as “the leading provider of big data, advanced analytics and machine learning insights for the global golf industry.”

“The PGA TOUR has done a great job of using advanced analytics to help its players practice and perform their best,” said Mike Downey, Director, Brand Partnership Engineering at Microsoft. “At other levels of the game, capturing the necessary on-course data has been a real challenge. Arccos has cracked that code and built a robust data set which they are deploying via the Microsoft Azure cloud to the benefit of golfers worldwide.”

That’s a lofty role in a roughly $80 billion industry, and Syed is changing the game for golfers of all skill levels, something particularly needed by non-professionals. But he didn’t set out to be a game-changer.

He was born and raised in Pakistan and didn’t start playing golf until age 14. Even then, he was more focused on other sports, namely tennis and cricket. Bitten by the golf bug after emigrating to America while attending Ohio Wesleyan University, Syed earned a BA in Computer Science and Mathematics and was captain of the tennis and cricket teams. His golf addiction was fueled by his ability to play for free at a course that the women’s tennis coach owned.

Syed selected Yale for his MBA in large part because it had one of America’s top-rated collegiate golf courses, a Golden Era of Golf Architecture masterpiece dating back to 1926.

The ongoing love affair with the game has led Syed to become a 1-handicap player, a Golf Digest Course Rater, and a genuine golf architecture nerd with true passion for CB Macdonald/Seth Raynor/Charles Banks designs (they collaborated on The Course at Yale). He has recorded four holes-in-one, three of which he credits to intelligence provided by Arccos data.

golf, technology, Artificial Intelligence, golf clubs

Arccos CEO Sal Syed married his love of golf and technology to co-found his company and its award-winning system and products.

During his MBA process, Syed became a Fellow at the Yale Entrepreneurial Institute, which set him on the path to combining his passions for golf and technology and to found Arccos. “We began with the idea for creating technology that tracks golf ball metrics to improve a player’s scores,” said Syed, “after a few trials, we realized it was very hard to do both technically and from a business perspective. We decided to change course and realized that if we could sense where you hit the ball and map it from there that we could be successful.”

Successful, indeed. A few Arccos accomplishments include:

  • earning placement in Fast Company’s “World’s Most Innovative Companies 2018” list (ranked No. 3 in sports category globally)
  • becoming the official A.I. and cloud computing partner of Microsoft
  • partnering with Microsoft to develop Arccos Caddie, golf’s first A.I. platform
  • garnering Golf Digest Editor’s Choice Award, Best Game Analyzer (2016, 2017, 2018)

And that’s the tip of the iceberg for Arcoss and Syed, whose vision is to connect every club and grip in golf and track every shot within five years. The company is on path to connect more than 50% of new golf clubs that come to market starting in Q1 2020, based on soon to be announced partnerships, according to Tom Williams, Arccos Executive Vice President of Strategic Partnerships.

A.I., golf tech, Big Data, golf products, golf industry innovation, Microsoft Azure Cloud

Product Data Points include 2 milllion+ rounds played with the Arccos system, 100 million+ shots taken by Arccos users, 40,000 courses mapped, and 3.79 strokes (the average Arccos user first-year golf handicap improvement).

Syed named Arccos after the inverse cosine function, an element of advanced mathematics that is featured in the Arccos algorithm. According to MathOpenRef.com, the cosine function, along with sine and tangent, is one of the three most common trigonometric functions. In any right triangle, the cosine of an angle is the length of the adjacent side (A) divided by the length of the hypotenuse (H). Therefore, an inverse cosine function. . .

Say what?

Suffice it to say, if golf innovation were a swimming pool, Arccos is diving in the deep end, while ClickCaddie is frolicking in the kiddie pool. Nothing wrong with that. Just two vastly opposite ends of the golf invention spectrum, and a microcosm for what all can be found at PGA Merchandise Shows.

Buckle up!

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A University of Maryland graduate, Dan is a lifelong resident of the Mid-Atlantic, now residing in Northern Virginia. Fan of the Terps and all D.C. professional sports teams, Dan fell in love with golf through Lee Trevino's style and skill during his peak years. Dan was once Editor of Golf Inc. Magazine.

11 Comments

11 Comments

  1. Norman

    Jan 12, 2019 at 5:31 pm

    Just what we need. More phones on the course. Thank you. Here’s a thought- put your phone down Donald. No one wants to hear your lame conversations or listen to your music.

  2. RV

    Jan 11, 2019 at 7:30 pm

    Big fan of my arccos. Looking forward to the weather warming up to get some rounds with my new irons and let arccos help dial in my distances.

    • Daniel Shepherd

      Jan 13, 2019 at 1:01 pm

      Hope the dialing in goes great, RV. Nothing like achieving improvement in the often bedeviling game we love. Cheers!

  3. dj

    Jan 11, 2019 at 6:53 am

    “Suffice it to say, if golf innovation were a swimming pool, Arccos is diving in the deep end, while ClickCaddie is frolicking in the kiddie pool. ”

    Really?

    • Daniel Shepherd

      Jan 13, 2019 at 1:03 pm

      That analogy doesn’t work for you, DJ? If you’re thinking it’s dissing ClickCaddie, it’s not. Rather, it was intended to show the spectrum of product innovation in golf – from Artificial Intelligence and algorithms to convenient phone access without spilling drinks on iPhones while listening to tunes. Cheers!

  4. Merde

    Jan 11, 2019 at 1:31 am

    No, actually, golf is not a game of statistics. YOU stat addicts may think that, but it’s not.
    All you do is hit a certain shot with a certain club and get it into the hole in as few shots as possible.
    They didn’t need stats to do that when Hogan and Snead were playing. They just moved the ball forward and in.
    Everybody stop wasting money on this stuff, you don’t need it

    • Dj

      Jan 11, 2019 at 6:52 am

      Your thinking is antiquated.

      • Daniel Shepherd

        Jan 13, 2019 at 1:21 pm

        I can respect that opinion, Merde, that’s precisely how the game should be consumed … however you like it best. But change and “progress” is inevitable; if it weren’t we’d still be using outhouses to relieve ourselves and Morse Code to communicate. That stated, there’s nothing wrong with your preference, just as there’s nothing wrong with those who value stats and tech to improve their game and golf experience. Cheers!

        • Kenny

          Jan 17, 2019 at 1:47 pm

          I don’t think I could survive in a world with out-houses or a cell phone. Technology is here to stay. Embrace it or risk being left behind.

          • Daniel Shepherd

            Jan 18, 2019 at 4:55 pm

            Good point Kenny. ClickCaddie doesn’t mean more cell phones on the course. They’re already there. It means more enjoyment for players who like to have their phone with them. Cheers!

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open betting preview

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As the Florida swing comes to an end, the PGA Tour makes its way to Houston to play the Texas Children’s Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course.

This will be the fourth year that Memorial Park Golf Course will serve as the tournament host. The event did not take place in 2023, but the course hosted the event in 2020, 2021 and 2022.

Memorial Park is a par-70 layout measuring 7,432 yards and features Bermudagrass greens. Historically, the main defense for the course has been thick rough along the fairways and tightly mown runoff areas around the greens. Memorial Park has a unique setup that features three Par 5’s and five Par 3’s.

The field will consist of 132 players, with the top 65 and ties making the cut. There are some big names making the trip to Houston, including Scottie Scheffler, Wyndham Clark, Tony Finau, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala.

Past Winners at Memorial Park

  • 2022: Tony Finau (-16)
  • 2021: Jason Kokrak (-10)
  • 2020: Carlos Ortiz (-13)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Memorial Park

Let’s take a look at several metrics for Memorial Park to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds:

Strokes Gained: Approach

Memorial Park is a pretty tough golf course. Golfers are penalized for missing greens and face some difficult up and downs to save par. Approach will be key.

Total Strokes Gained: Approach per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.30)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.26)
  3. Keith Mitchell (+0.97) 
  4. Tony Finau (+0.92)
  5. Jake Knapp (+0.84)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Memorial Park is a long golf course with rough that can be penal. Therefore, a combination of distance and accuracy is the best metric.

Total Strokes Gained: Off the Tee per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+0.94)
  2. Kevin Dougherty (+0.93)
  3. Cameron Champ (+0.86)
  4. Rafael Campos (+0.84)
  5. Si Woo Kim (+0.70)

Strokes Gained Putting: Bermudagrass + Fast

The Bermudagrass greens played fairly fast the past few years in Houston. Jason Kokrak gained 8.7 strokes putting on his way to victory in 2021 and Tony Finau gained in 7.8 in 2022.

Total Strokes Gained Putting (Bermudagrass) per round past 24 rounds (min. 8 rounds):

  1. Adam Svensson (+1.27)
  2. Harry Hall (+1.01)
  3. Martin Trainer (+0.94)
  4. Taylor Montgomery (+0.88)
  5. S.H. Kim (+0.86)

Strokes Gained: Around the Green

With firm and undulating putting surfaces, holding the green on approach shots may prove to be a challenge. Memorial Park has many tightly mowed runoff areas, so golfers will have challenging up-and-down’s around the greens. Carlos Ortiz gained 5.7 strokes around the green on the way to victory in 2020.

Total Strokes Gained: Around the Green per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Mackenzie Hughes (+0.76)
  2. S.H. Kim (+0.68)
  3. Scottie Scheffler (+0.64)
  4. Jorge Campillo (+0.62)
  5. Jason Day (+0.60)

Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult

Memorial Park is a long and difficult golf course. This statistic will incorporate players who’ve had success on these types of tracks in the past. 

Total Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.45)
  2. Ben Griffin (+1.75)
  3. Will Zalatoris (+1.73)
  4. Ben Taylor (+1.53)
  5. Tony Finau (+1.42)

Course History

Here are the players who have performed the most consistently at Memorial Park. 

Strokes Gained Total at Memorial Park past 12 rounds:

  1. Tyson Alexander (+3.65)
  2. Ben Taylor (+3.40)
  3. Tony Finau (+2.37)
  4. Joel Dahmen (+2.25)
  5. Patton Kizzire (+2.16)

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (24%) SG: OTT (24%); SG: Putting Bermudagrass/Fast (13%); SG: Long and Difficult (13%); SG: ARG (13%) and Course History (13%)

  1. Scottie Scheffler
  2. Wyndham Clark
  3. Tony Finau
  4. Joel Dahmen
  5. Stephan Jaeger 
  6. Aaron Rai
  7. Sahith Theegala
  8. Keith Mitchell 
  9. Jhonnatan Vegas
  10. Jason Day
  11. Kurt Kitayama
  12. Alex Noren
  13. Will Zalatoris
  14. Si Woo Kim
  15. Adam Long

2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open Picks

Will Zalatoris +2000 (Caesars)

Scottie Scheffler will undoubtedly be difficult to beat this week, so I’m starting my card with someone who I believe has the talent to beat him if he doesn’t have his best stuff.

Will Zalatoris missed the cut at the PLAYERS, but still managed to gain strokes on approach while doing so. In an unpredictable event with extreme variance, I don’t believe it would be wise to discount Zalatoris based on that performance. Prior to The PLAYERS, the 27-year-old finished T13, T2 and T4 in his previous three starts.

Zalatoris plays his best golf on long and difficult golf courses. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the category, but the eye test also tells a similar story. He’s contended at major championships and elevated events in the best of fields with tough scoring conditions.  The Texas resident should be a perfect fit at Memorial Park Golf Club.

Alex Noren +4500 (FanDuel)

Alex Noren has been quietly playing some of his best golf of the last half decade this season. The 41-year-old is coming off back-to-back top-20 finishes in Florida including a T9 at The PLAYERS in his most recent start.

In his past 24 rounds, Noren ranks 21st in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 30th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, 25th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses and 21st in Strokes Gained: Putting on fast Bermudagrass greens.

In addition to his strong recent play, the Swede also has played well at Memorial Park. In 2022, Noren finished T4 at the event, gaining 2.2 strokes off the tee and 7.0 strokes on approach for the week. In his two starts at the course, he’s gained an average of .6 strokes per round on the field, indicating he is comfortable on these greens.

Noren has been due for a win for what feels like an eternity, but Memorial Park may be the course that suits him well enough for him to finally get his elusive first PGA Tour victory.

Mackenzie Hughes +8000 (FanDuel)

Mackenzie Hughes found himself deep into contention at last week’s Valspar Championship before faltering late and finishing in a tie for 3rd place. While he would have loved to win the event, it’s hard to see the performance as anything other than an overwhelming positive sign for the Canadian.

Hughes has played great golf at Memorial Park in the past. He finished T7 in 2020, T29 in 2021 and T16 in 2022. The course fit seems to be quite strong for Hughes. He’s added distance off the tee in the past year or and ranks 8th in the field for apex height, which will be a key factor when hitting into Memorial Park’s elevated greens with steep run-off areas.

In his past 24 rounds, Hughes is the best player in the field in Strokes Gained: Around the Greens. The ability to scramble at this course will be extremely important. I believe Hughes can build off of his strong finish last week and contend once again to cement himself as a President’s Cup consideration.

Akshay Bhatia +8000 (FanDuel)

Akshay Bhatia played well last week at the Valspar and seemed to be in total control of his golf ball. He finished in a tie for 17th and shot an impressive -3 on a difficult Sunday. After struggling Thursday, Akshay shot 68-70-68 in his next three rounds.

Thus far, Bhatia has played better at easier courses, but his success at Copperhead may be due to his game maturing. The 22-year-old has enormous potential and the raw talent to be one of the best players in the world when he figures it all out.

Bhatia is a high upside play with superstar qualities and may just take the leap forward to the next stage of his career in the coming months.

Cameron Champ +12000 (FanDuel)

Cameron Champ is a player I often target in the outright betting market due to his “boom-or-bust” nature. It’s hard to think of a player in recent history with three PGA Tour wins who’s been as inconsistent as Champ has over the course of his career.

Despite the erratic play, Cam Champ simply knows how to win. He’s won in 2018, 2019 and 2021, so I feel he’s due for a win at some point this season. The former Texas A&M product should be comfortable in Texas and last week he showed us that his game is in a pretty decent spot.

Over his past 24 rounds, Champ ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 30th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses. Given his ability to spike at any given time, Memorial Park is a good golf course to target Champ on at triple digit odds.

Robert MacIntyre +12000 (FanDuel)

The challenge this week is finding players who can possibly beat Scottie Scheffler while also not dumping an enormous amount of money into an event that has a player at the top that looks extremely dangerous. Enter McIntyre, who’s another boom-or-bust type player who has the ceiling to compete with anyone when his game is clicking on all cylinders.

In his past 24 rounds, MacIntyre ranks 16th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 17th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and 10th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses.

MacIntyre’s PGA Tour season has gotten off to a slow start, but he finished T6 in Mexico, which is a course where players will hit driver on the majority of their tee shots, which is what we will see at Memorial Park. Texas can also get quite windy, which should suit MacIntyre. Last July, the Scot went toe to toe with Rory McIlroy at the Scottish Open before a narrow defeat. It would take a similar heroic effort to compete with Scheffler this year in Houston.

Ryan Moore +15000 (FanDuel)

Ryan Moore’s iron play has been absolutely unconscious over his past few starts. At The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field, he gained 6.1 strokes on approach and last week at Copperhead, he gained 9.0 strokes on approach.

It’s been a rough handful of years on Tour for the 41-year-old, but he is still a five-time winner on the PGA Tour who’s young enough for a career resurgence. Moore has chronic deterioration in a costovertebral joint that connects the rib to the spine, but has been getting more consistent of late, which is hopefully a sign that he is getting healthy.

Veterans have been contending in 2024 and I believe taking a flier on a proven Tour play who’s shown signs of life is a wise move at Memorial Park.

 

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Why the race to get better at golf might be doing more harm than good

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B.F. Skinner was one of the most important psychologists of the 20th century, developing the foundation of the development of reinforcement, and in doing so, creating the concept of behaviorism. In simple terms, this means that we are conditioned by our habits. In practical terms, it explains the divide between the few and far between elite instructors and college coaches.

To understand the application, let’s quickly review one of B.F. Skinner’s most important experiments; superstitions in the formation of behavior by pigeons. In this experiment, food was dispensed to pigeons at random intervals. Soon, according to Skinner, the pigeons began to associate whatever action they were doing at the time of the food being dispensed. According to Skinner, this conditioned that response and soon, they simply haphazardly repeated the action, failing to distinguish between cause and correlation (and in the meantime, looking really funny!).

Now, this is simply the best way to describe the actions of most every women’s college golf coach and too many instructors in America. They see something work, get positive feedback and then become conditioned to give the feedback, more and more, regardless of if it works (this is also why tips from your buddies never work!).

Go to a college event, particularly a women’s one, and you will see coaches running all over the place. Like the pigeons in the experiment, they have been conditioned into a codependent relationship with their players in which they believe their words and actions, can transform a round of golf. It is simply hilarious while being equally perturbing

In junior golf, it’s everywhere. Junior golf academies make a living selling parents that a hysterical coach and over-coaching are essential ingredients in your child’s success.

Let’s be clear, no one of any intellect has any real interest in golf — because it’s not that interesting. The people left, including most coaches and instructors, carve out a small fiefdom, usually on the corner of the range, where they use the illusion of competency to pray on people. In simple terms, they baffle people with the bullshit of pseudo-science that they can make you better, after just one more lesson.

The reality is that life is an impromptu game. The world of golf, business, and school have a message that the goal is being right. This, of course, is bad advice, being right in your own mind is easy, trying to push your ideas on others is hard. As a result, it is not surprising that the divorce rate among golf professionals and their instructors is 100 percent. The transfer rate among college players continues to soar, and too many courses have a guy peddling nefarious science to good people. In fact, we do at my course!

The question is, what impact does all this have on college-age and younger kids? At this point, we honestly don’t know. However, I am going to go out on a limb and say it isn’t good.

Soren Kierkegaard once quipped “I saw it for what it is, and I laughed.” The actions of most coaches and instructors in America are laughable. The problem is that I am not laughing because they are doing damage to kids, as well as driving good people away from this game.

The fact is that golfers don’t need more tips, secrets, or lessons. They need to be presented with a better understanding of the key elements of golf. With this understanding, they can then start to frame which information makes sense and what doesn’t. This will emancipate them and allow them to take charge of their own development.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Valspar Championship betting preview: Elite ballstrikers to thrive at Copperhead

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The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2024 Valspar Championship.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermudagrass greens overseeded with POA. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 16, 17 and 18 — also known as the “Snake Pit” — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.

The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. The field this week is solid and is a major improvement over last year’s field that felt the impact of players skipping due to a handful of “signature events” in a short span of time. 

Past Winners at Valspar Championship

  • 2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
  • 2022: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
  • 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
  • 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
  • 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
  • 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Copperhead

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can’t be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)

  1. Tony Finau (+.90)
  2. Nick Taylor (+.81)
  3. Justin Thomas (+.77)
  4. Greyson Sigg (+.69)
  5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+.67)

2. Good Drive %

The long hitters can be a bit limited here due to the tree-lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important, but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.

Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+91.3%) 
  2. Zach Johnson (+91.1%)
  3. Sam Ryder (+90.5%)
  4. Ryan Moore (+90.4%)
  5. Aaron Rai (+89.7%)

3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1.32)
  2. Keith Mitchell (+1.29)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.24)
  4. Cameron Young (+1.17) 
  5. Doug Ghim (+.95)

4. Bogey Avoidance

With the conditions likely to be difficult, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, oftentimes the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.

Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.

Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+9.0)
  2. Xander Schauffele (+9.3)
  3. Austin Cook (+9.7) 
  4. Chesson Hadley (+10.0)
  5. Greyson Sigg (+10.2)

5. Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions

Conditions will be tough this week at Copperhead. I am looking for golfers who can rise to the occasion if the course plays as difficult as it has in the past.

Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1,71) 
  2. Min Woo Lee (+1.39)
  3. Cameron Young (+1.27)
  4. Jordan Spieth (+1.08)
  5. Justin Suh (+.94)

6. Course History

That statistic will tell us which players have played well at Copperhead in the past.

Course History Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+3.75) 
  2. Sam Burns (+2.49)
  3. Davis Riley (+2.33)
  4. Matt NeSmith (+2.22)
  5. Jordan Spieth (+2.04)

The Valspar Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Good Drive % (15%), SG: BS (20%), Bogeys Avoided (13%), Course History (13%) Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions (12%).

  1. Xander Schauffele
  2. Doug Ghim
  3. Victor Perez
  4. Greyson Sigg
  5. Ryan Moore
  6. Tony Finau
  7. Justin Thomas
  8. Sam Ryder
  9. Sam Burns
  10. Lucas Glover

2024 Valspar Championship Picks

Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)

Justin Thomas will be disappointed with his finish at last week’s PLAYERS Championship, as the past champion missed the cut despite being in some decent form heading into the event. Despite the missed cut, JT hit the ball really well. In his two rounds, the two-time major champion led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach per round.

Thomas has been up and down this season. He’s missed the cut in two “signature events” but also has finishes of T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T6 at the Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am and T3 at the American Express. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in the field.

Thomas loves Copperhead. In his last three tries at the course, he’s finished T13, T3 and T10. Thomas would have loved to get a win at a big event early in the season, but avoidable mistakes and a balky putter have cost him dearly. I believe a trip to a course he loves in a field he should be able to capitalize on is the right recipe for JT to right the ship.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (FanDuel)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is playing spectacular golf in the 2024 season. He finished 2nd at the American Express, T20 at Pebble Beach and T24 at the Genesis Invitational before finishing T13 at last week’s PLAYERS Championship.

In his past 24 rounds, the South African ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 26th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. Bezuidenhout managed to work his way around TPC Sawgrass last week with minimal damage. He only made five bogeys in the entire week, which is a great sign heading into a difficult Copperhead this week.

Bezuidenhout is winless in his PGA Tour career, but certainly has the talent to win on Tour. His recent iron play tells me that this week could be a breakthrough for the 35-year-old who has eyes on the President’s Cup.

Doug Ghim +8000 (FanDuel)

Doug Ghim has finished in the top-16 of his past five starts. Most recently, Ghim finished T16 at The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field.

In his past 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 5th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. In terms of his fit for Copperhead, the 27-year-old ranks 12th in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions, making him a great fit for the course.

Ghim has yet to win on Tour, but at one point he was the top ranked Amateur golfer in the world and played in the 2017 Arnold Palmer Cup and 2017 Walker Cup. He then won the Ben Hogan award for the best male college golfer in 2018. He certainly has the talent, and there are signals aplenty that his talent in ready to take him to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour.

Sepp Straka +8000 (BetRivers)

Sepp Straka is a player who’s shown he has the type of game that can translate to a difficult Florida golf course. The former Presidents Cup participant won the 2022 Honda Classic in tough conditions and should thrive with a similar test at Copperhead.

It’s been a slow 2024 for Straka, but his performance last week at the PLAYERS Championship surely provides some optimism. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach as well as 1.88 strokes off the tee. The tee-to-green game Straka showed on a course with plenty of danger demonstrates that he can stay in control of his golf ball this week.

It’s possible that the strong performance last week was an outlier, but I’m willing to bet on a proven winner in a weaker field at a great number.

Victor Perez +12000 (FanDuel)

Victor Perez is no stranger to success in professional golf. The Frenchman has three DP World Tour wins including a Rolex Series event. He won the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, as well as the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which are some big events.

Perez earned his PGA Tour card this season and enters the week playing some fantastic golf. He finished in a tie for 16th in Florida at the Cognizant Classic and then tied for third in his most recent start at the Puerto Rico Open.

In his past 24 rounds in the field, Perez ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 1oth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Good Drive % and 15th in Bogey Avoidance.

Perez comes in as a perfect fit for Copperhead and offers serious value at triple-digit odds.

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