Opinion & Analysis
Do longer hitters really earn more money on the PGA Tour?
If you have been hiding in the woods for the past 15 years, let me bring you up to speed: the great debate in golf is over distance. Are players hitting the ball further…and maybe even too far? Are working out and better athletes changing the game? In 2001, Hank Keuhne averaged 321 yards off the tee, compared to 318 yards in 2018 for PGA Tour Leader Rory McIlroy.
One should expect changes in distance between 2001-2006-ish, as players adopted better technology in balls and larger head drivers. But since those changes, what does the data say? Here is a chart with the data for players from 2007-2015, which shows year, average driving distance, the leader on the PGA Tour, their driving distance, and the number of players who averaged over 300 yards.
| Year | PGA Tour avg. driving distance | PGA Tour leader (yards) | Players avg. over 300 yards |
| 2015 | 289.7 | Dustin Johnson (317.7) | 26 |
| 2014 | 288.8 | Bubba Watson (314.3) | 25 |
| 2013 | 287.2 | Luke List (306.8) | 13 |
| 2012 | 289.1 | Bubba Watson (315.5) | 21 |
| 2011 | 290.9 | J.B Holmes (318.4) | 21 |
| 2010 | 287.3 | Robert Garrigus (315.5) | 12 |
| 2009 | 287.3 | Robert Garrigus (312) | 13 |
| 2008 | 287.3 | Bubba Watson (315.1) | 13 |
| 2007 | 288.6 | Bubba Watson (315.2) | 18 |
These numbers suggest that players are not hitting it any further but do not answer the question does distance matter? To answer this question, I looked closer at the numbers to examine the relationship between distance and earnings. When looking at the top 15 longest players over the past 3 years with at least 20 events played, here is the data
| Average Earnings / year (for all 15 players) | $52,000,000 |
| Average earnings per player/year | $3,500,000 |
| Top ten finish on money list | 4.3/15 (29%) |
| Number which maintained their PGA tour card for following year | 13.3/15 (89%) |
| 3 Year Total Earnings | $157,582,450 |
| 3 Year Driving Average | 310.2 yards |
| Average Dollars per yard (longest 15) | $508,002 |
| Average Dollars per yard (each player – longest 15) | $33,866 |
Now, let’s compare the top 15 longest players to the shortest 15 players with a minimum of 20 events
| Average Earnings / year (for all 15 players) | $13,600,000 |
| Average earnings per player/year | $910,000 |
| Top ten finish on money list | 0/15 (0%) |
| Number which maintained their PGA tour card for following year | 6/15 (40%) |
| 3 Year Total Earnings | $41,095,786 |
| 3 Year Driving Average | 278.6 yards |
| Average Earnings / Yard (shortest 15 players) | $147,508 |
| Average Dollars per Yard (each player – shortest 15) | $9,833 |
In this data set the 15 shortest hitters are averaging 278.6yards/drive (over 3 year period 2016-2018), while the 15 longest hitters are averaging 310.2 yards/drive (over 3 year period 2016-2018). This means each yard to the player at the bottom is worth approximately $9,833, while each drive for the top 15 players yields approximately $33,866.
Based on this simple information it tells us a couple things inherently
1) the players who are on the bottom of the list for driving distance have a distinct motivator for getting all areas covered in their coaching profiles, which includes fitness. Money tends to speak loudly and in this case we believe the trend on tour is showing this.
2) Peak physical conditioning for these golfers is a part of the pie that yields these staggering numbers with respect to earnings. Ignoring that piece of the pie is a very big gamble to the bottom line of the players. It is of our opinion that the reason you see less of the buffet line being utilized and more of the Whole Foods consumption, is that health and wellness matter to these players. The proof is in the numbers and in the last 3-5 years those numbers are speaking very loudly.
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Of all the clubs in our bags, wedges are almost always the simplest in construction and, therefore, the easiest to analyze what might make one work differently from another if you know what to look for.
Wedges are a lot less mysterious than drivers, of course, as the major brands are working with a lot of “pixie dust” inside these modern marvels. That’s carrying over more to irons now, with so many new models featuring internal multi-material technologies, and almost all of them having a “badge” or insert in the back to allow more complex graphics while hiding the actual distribution of mass.
But when it comes to wedges, most on the market today are still single pieces of molded steel, either cast or forged into that shape. So, if you look closely at where the mass is distributed, it’s pretty clear how that wedge is going to perform.
To start, because of their wider soles, the majority of the mass of almost any wedge is along the bottom third of the clubhead. So, the best wedge shots are always those hit between the 2nd and 5th grooves so that more mass is directly behind that impact. Elite tour professionals practice incessantly to learn to do that consistently, wearing out a spot about the size of a penny right there. If impact moves higher than that, the face is dramatically thinner, so smash factor is compromised significantly, which reduces the overall distance the ball will fly.
Every one of us, tour players included, knows that maddening shot that we feel a bit high on the face and it doesn’t go anywhere, it’s not your fault.
If your wedges show a wear pattern the size of a silver dollar, and centered above the 3rd or 4th groove, you are not getting anywhere near the same performance from shot to shot. Robot testing proves impact even two to three grooves higher in the face can cause distance loss of up to 35 to 55 feet with modern ‘tour design’ wedges.
In addition, as impact moves above the center of mass, the golf club principle of gear effect causes the ball to fly higher with less spin. Think of modern drivers for a minute. The “holy grail” of driving is high launch and low spin, and the driver engineers are pulling out all stops to get the mass as low in the clubhead as possible to optimize this combination.
Where is all the mass in your wedges? Low. So, disregarding the higher lofts, wedges “want” to launch the ball high with low spin – exactly the opposite of what good wedge play requires penetrating ball flight with high spin.
While almost all major brand wedges have begun putting a tiny bit more thickness in the top portion of the clubhead, conventional and modern ‘tour design’ wedges perform pretty much like they always have. Elite players learn to hit those crisp, spinny penetrating wedge shots by spending lots of practice time learning to consistently make contact low in the face.
So, what about grooves and face texture?
Grooves on any club can only do so much, and no one has any material advantage here. The USGA tightly defines what we manufacturers can do with grooves and face texture, and modern manufacturing techniques allow all of us to push those limits ever closer. And we all do. End of story.
Then there’s the topic of bounce and grinds, the most complex and confusing part of the wedge formula. Many top brands offer a complex array of sole configurations, all of them admittedly specialized to a particular kind of lie or turf conditions, and/or a particular divot pattern.
But if you don’t play the same turf all the time, and make the same size divot on every swing, how would you ever figure this out?
The only way is to take any wedge you are considering and play it a few rounds, hitting all the shots you face and observing the results. There’s simply no other way.
So, hopefully this will inspire a lively conversation in our comments section, and I’ll chime in to answer any questions you might have.
And next week, I’ll dive into the rest of the wedge formula. Yes, shafts, grips and specifications are essential, too.
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Golf's Perfect Imperfections
Golf’s Perfect Imperfections: Amazing Session with Performance Coach Savannah Meyer-Clement
In this week’s episode, we spent some time with performance coach Savannah Meyer-Clement who provides many useful insights that you’ll be able to implement on the golf course.
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19th Hole
Vincenzi’s 2024 RBC Heritage betting preview: Patrick Cantlay ready to get back inside winner’s circle
Just a two-hour drive from Augusta National, the PGA TOUR heads to Harbour Town Golf Links in Hilton Head Island, S.C. Hilton Head Island is a golfer’s paradise and Harbour Town is one of the most beautiful and scenic courses on the PGA TOUR.
Harbour Town Golf Links is a par-71 that measures 7,121 yards and features Bermuda grass greens. A Pete Dye design, the course is heavily tree lined and features small greens and many dog legs, protecting it from “bomb-and-gauge” type golfers.
The field is loaded this week with 69 golfers with no cut. Last year was quite possibly the best field in RBC Heritage history and the event this week is yet another designated event, meaning there is a $20 million prize pool.
Most of the big names on the PGA Tour will be in attendance this week with the exceptions of Hideki Matsuyama and Viktor Hovland. Additionally, Webb Simpson, Shane Lowry, Gary Woodland and Kevin Kisner have been granted sponsors exemptions.
Past Winners at Harbour Town
- 2023: Matt Fitzpatrick (-17)
- 2022: Jordan Spieth (-13)
- 2021: Stewart Cink (-19)
- 2020: Webb Simpson (-22)
- 2019: CT Pan (-12)
- 2018: Sotoshi Kodaira (-12)
- 2017: Wesley Bryan (-13)
- 2016: Branden Grace (-9)
- 2015: Jim Furyk (-18)
In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value).
Key Stats For Harbour Town
Let’s take a look at key metrics for Harbour Town Golf Links to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their past 24 rounds.
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Approach is exceedingly important this week. The greens at Harbour Town are about half the size of PGA TOUR average and feature the second-smallest greens on the tour. Typical of a Pete Dye design, golfers will pay the price for missed greens.
Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds
- Scottie Scheffler (+1.27)
- Tom Hoge (+1.27)
- Corey Conners (+1.16)
- Austin Eckroat (+0.95)
- Cameron Young (+0.93)
Good Drive %
The fairways at Harbour Town are tree lined and feature many dog legs. Bombers tend to struggle at the course because it forces layups and doesn’t allow long drivers to overpower it. Accuracy is far more important than power.
Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds
- Brice Garnett (88.8%)
- Shane Lowry (+87.2%)
- Akshay Bhatia (+86.0%)
- Si Woo Kim (+85.8%)
- Sepp Straka (+85.1%)
Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye Designs
Pete Dye specialists tend to play very well at Harbour Town. Si Woo Kim, Matt Kuchar, Jim Furyk and Webb Simpson are all Pete Dye specialists who have had great success here. It is likely we see some more specialists near the top of the leaderboard this week.
SG: TOT Pete Dye per round over past 36 rounds:
- Xander Schauffele (+2.27)
- Scottie Scheffler (+2.24)
- Ludvig Aberg (+2.11)
- Brian Harman (+1.89)
- Sungjae Im (+1.58)
4. Strokes Gained: Short Game (Bermuda)
Strokes Gained: Short Game factors in both around the green and putting. With many green-side bunkers and tricky green complexes, both statistics will be important. Past winners — such as Jim Furyk, Wes Bryan and Webb Simpson — highlight how crucial the short game skill set is around Harbour Town.
SG: SG Over Past 24 Rounds
- Jordan Spieth (+1.11)
- Taylor Moore (+1.02)
- Wyndham Clark (+0.98)
- Mackenzie Hughes (+0.86)
- Andrew Putnam (+0.83)
5. Greens in Regulation %
The recipe for success at Harbour Town Golf Links is hitting fairways and greens. Missing either will prove to be consequential — golfers must be in total control of the ball to win.
Greens in Regulation % over past 24 rounds:
- Brice Garnett (+75.0%)
- Scottie Scheffler (+69.9%)
- Corey Conners (+69.0%)
- Shane Lowry (+68.3%)
- Patrick Rodgers (+67.6%)
6. Course History
Harbour Town is a course where players who have strong past results at the course always tend to pop up.
Course History over past 24 rounds:
- Patrick Cantlay (+2.34)
- Cam Davis (+2.05)
- J.T. Poston (+1.69)
- Justin Rose (+1.68)
- Tommy Fleetwood (+1.59)
The RBC Heritage Model Rankings
Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (24%), Good Drives (20%), SG: SG (14%), SG: Pete Dye (14%), GIR (14%), and Course History (14%)
- Shane Lowry
- Russell Henley
- Scottie Scheffler
- Xander Schauffele
- Corey Conners
- Wyndham Clark
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout
- Matt Fitzpatrick
- Cameron Young
- Ludvig Aberg
2024 RBC Heritage Picks
Patrick Cantlay +2000 (FanDuel)
With the exception of Scottie Scheffler, the PGA Tour has yet to have any of their star players show peak form during the 2024 season. Last week, Patrick Cantlay, who I believe is a top-5 players on the PGA Tour, took one step closer to regaining the form that’s helped him win eight events on Tour since 2017.
Cantlay limped into the Masters in poor form, but figured it out at Augusta National, finishing in a tie for 20th and ranking 17th for the week in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. The former FedEx Cup champion will now head to one of his favorite golf courses in Harbour Town, where he’s had immaculate results over the years. In his six trips to the course, he’s only finished worse than 7th one time. The other finishes include three third places (2017, 2019, 2023) and one runner-up finish (2022). In his past 36 rounds at Harbour Town, Cantlay ranks 1st in Strokes Gained: Total per round at the course by a wide margin (+2.36).
Cantlay is winless since the 2022 BMW Championship, which is far too long for a player of his caliber. With signs pointing to the 32-year-old returning to form, a “signature event” at Harbour Town is just what he needs to get back on the winning track.
Tommy Fleetwood +3000 (FanDuel)
I truly believe Tommy Fleetwood will figure out a way to win on American soil in 2024. It’s certainly been a bugaboo for him throughout his career, but he is simply too talented to go another season without winning a PGA Tour event.
At last week’s Masters Tournament, Fleetwood made a Sunday charge and ended up finishing T3 in the event, which was his best ever finish at The Masters. For the week, the Englishman ranked 8th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, 10th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking and 16th in Strokes Gained: Putting.
Harbour Town is a perfect layout for Fleetwood, and he’s had relative success at this Pete Dye design in the past. In his four trips to the course, he’s finished inside of the top 25 three times, with his best finish, T10, coming in 2022. The course is pretty short and can’t be overpowered, which gives an advantage to more accurate players such as Fleetwood. Tommy ranks 8th in the field in Good Drive % and should be able to plot his way along this golf course.
The win is coming for Tommy lad. I believe there’s a chance this treasure of a golf course may be the perfect one for him to finally break through on Tour.
Cameron Young +3300 (FanDuel)
Cameron Young had a solid Masters Tournament last week, which is exactly what I’m looking for in players who I anticipate playing well this week at the RBC Heritage. He finished in a tie for 9th, but never felt the pressure of contending in the event. For the week, Young ranked 6th in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking.
Despite being one of the longest players off the tee on the PGA Tour, Young has actually played some really good golf on shorter tracks. He finished T3 at Harbour Town in 2023 and ranks 20th in the field in Good Drive% and 16th in Greens in Regulation in his past 24 rounds. He also has strong finishes at other shorter courses that can take driver out of a players hand such as Copperhead and PGA National.
Young is simply one of the best players on the PGA Tour in 2024, and I strongly believe has what it takes to win a PGA Tour event in the very near future.
Corey Conners +5500 (FanDuel)
Corey Conners has had a disappointing year thus far on the PGA Tour, but absolutely loves Harbour Town.
At last week’s Masters Tournament, the Canadian finished T30 but ranked 20th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach. In his past 24 rounds, Conners ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, 3rd in Greens in Regulation % and 24th in Good Drive %.
In Conners’ last four trips to Harbour Town, his worst finish was T31, last season. He finished T4 in 2021, T12 in 2022 and ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Total at the course over his past 36 rounds.
Conners hasn’t been contending, but his recent finishes have been encouraging as he has finished in the top-25 in each of his past three starts prior to The Masters, including an impressive T13 at The PLAYERS. His recent improvement in ball striking as well as his suitability for Harbour Town makes Conners a high upside bet this week.
Shane Lowry (+7500) (FanDuel)
When these odds were posted after Lowry was announced in the field, I have to admit I was pretty stunned. Despite not offering much win equity on the PGA Tour over the last handful of years, Shane Lowry is still a top caliber player who has the ability to rise to the top of a signature event.
Lowry struggled to score at The Masters last week, but he actually hit the ball really well. The Irishman ranked 1st for Strokes Gained: Approach on the week and 7th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. As usual, it was the putter that let him down, as he ranked 60th in the field in Strokes Gained: Putting.
Harbour Town is most definitely one of Lowry’s favorite courses on the PGA Tour. In his six starts there, he’s finished in the top 10 three times, including third twice. Lowry is sensational at Pete Dye designs and ranks 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in his past 36 rounds on Dye tracks.
Lowry is perfect for Harbour Town. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 5th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 2nd in Good Drive% and 5th in Green in Regulation %. If he figures it out on the greens, Shane could have his first win in America since 2015.
Lucas Glover +12000 (FanDuel)
This is one of my weekly “bet the number” plays as I strongly believe the odds are just too long for a player of Glover’s caliber. The odds have been too long on Glover for a few weeks now, but this is the first event that I can get behind the veteran being able to actually contend at.
Glover is quietly playing good golf and returning to the form he had after the understandable regression after his two massive victories at the end of 2023. He finished T20 at The Masters, which was his best ever finish at Augusta National. For the week, Lucas ranked 18th for Strokes Gained: Approach and 20th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking.
Over his past 24 rounds, Glover ranks 9th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 13th in Good Drive %. Harbour Town is a short course that the 44-year-old will be able to keep up with the top players on Tour off the tee. He’s played the course more than 20 times, with mixed results. His best finishes at Harbour Town include a T7 in 2008, but recently has a finish of T21 in 2020.
Glover has proven he can contend with the stars of the Tour on any given week, and this number is flat out disrespectful.
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Jeff
Dec 4, 2018 at 1:51 am
A better correlation would be to compare the 15 longest hitters to the 15 closest to the tour median. It seems obvious the the 15 shortest are at a disadvantage, but the question is really whether the extra distance is a big advantage over tour average distance.
Gregg
Dec 3, 2018 at 7:47 pm
Distance is king for off course revenue, that OR boyish good looks and killer style. I’ll take distance!
Louie
Dec 3, 2018 at 2:33 pm
Your article is interesting but the conclusions do not necessarily fit the data. From my perspective distance does make a significant difference but course design matters. I would also look at the general stature of today’s golfer. Would be interesting to see how tall and muscular the top 15 are as compared to the lesser group. There are exceptions, like Justin Thomas.
Scrappy
Dec 3, 2018 at 2:31 pm
Totally jumped,from driving distance to fitness, without any correlation. Did you intend to prove a connection between strength or fitness with distance or earnings? Because you totally entered a third variable without any data behind it. Shank
TONEY P
Dec 3, 2018 at 12:55 pm
Longer hitters should make more on average. If a good golfer is hitting short irons and his competition is having to use middle irons then what is the likely result over a period of time. Even longer average golfers have a distinctive average on weekend rounds over their peers. The ability to hit irons into par 5’s and shorter clubs into par3’s give a great advantage over time in scoring, ie money. Now as far as course management , the advantage goes to the longer player. A
TONEY P
Dec 3, 2018 at 12:53 pm
Longer hitters should make more on average. If a good golfer is hitting short irons and his competition is having to use middle irons then what is the likely result over a period of time. Even longer average golfers have a distinctive average on weekend rounds over their peers. The ability to hit irons into par 5’s and shorter clubs into par3’s give a great advantage over time in scoring, ie money. Now as far as course management , the advantage goes to the longer player.
Raven
Dec 3, 2018 at 12:29 pm
It’s not that easy to find a simple stat to prove that distance is king as there will always be a flaw in the figures. I could plot all player finishes and distance together for each year then look to see if there is a consistent correlation over the years. But what if, for example, many of the long hitters do so because they are just better golfers? The distance figures then become irrelevant. Maybe a better method could be to find groups of players with similar playing stats (like putts gained etc.) and see if there is a distance/earnings relationship within those groups.
Rich Douglas
Dec 3, 2018 at 11:57 am
So I ran the correlation between 2017 money rankings and 2017 driving distance. The result: -0.044494783.
This says that there is literally no correlation between rankings among the top 50 drivers of the ball. Driving distance, it is very safe to say, is NOT a predictor of earnings.
Two caveats: First, correlation does not mean cause-and-effect. There may be some other, underlying cause to all of this, but it doesn’t seem likely since there is no statistically significant correlation. Second, I used the money rankings. This is a list of gross creditable earnings, not earnings-per event. This means European players who get to the PGA tour for a minimum number of events are somewhat under-represented. But there aren’t that many and the effect isn’t that big.
Longer driving does NOT predict higher earnings. I wonder what does…?
Vas
Dec 3, 2018 at 11:52 am
I think this is a very well done piece of work, but the variables don’t really match. A better correlation would be looking at the stats available for driving distance and money earned. This would be daunting because most long hitters use 3Ws or driving irons quite often… but if you wanted it enough, you could flesh out the necessary data. My hypothesis would be that pros who can carry drivers (and only looking at drivers) over 300y make significantly more money over the year compared to those who don’t. I think golf is going to see way more Koepka’s in the future, but the average career is going to be far shorter as a result. The new model will be to sacrifice everything for speed, and the one’s that excel will make their living between 25-35, before slowly fading away.
Gregg
Dec 3, 2018 at 7:38 pm
I like that analysis, but you got a bunch of 40 somethings now who have and continue to bomb it. Some bodies withstand time, some don’t.
Rich Douglas
Dec 3, 2018 at 11:18 am
A more reliable analysis would be a correlation between driving distance ranking and money ranking.
Rich Douglas
Dec 3, 2018 at 11:36 am
Just ran the numbers. There is NO correlation between driving distance and money winnings for the top 10 drivers of the ball. There was a slightly negative correlation (-0.019848574), but that’s not statistically significant.
Now, this was just with the top 10 in driving distance, not the whole list. Also, the data are slightly skewed because I used the money list instead of winnings per event. (For example, McIlroy is 39th on the 2017 money list, but he played only 14 events.)
You know what they now say….drive for show, hit accurate mid-irons for dough (Strokes Gained).
CrashTestDummy
Dec 2, 2018 at 3:40 am
Of course distance matters. The fact is that it is such a big advantage to hitting shorter clubs into greens. Also, one thing to note is that guys are still longer today even though the data doesn’t show it. The longest guys on PGA tour don’t always use the driver off the tee and use fairway woods or irons off the tee. The course management is better today.
Caroline
Dec 1, 2018 at 6:40 pm
We would have had a diffident answer to the long drive making money back when Daly was in his prime had it not been for Alcohol and wife’s.
Tommy
Dec 1, 2018 at 1:09 am
You say that today’s players are in peak condition? They are in very good specific condition for playing golf but they are far from peak. I’m watching Marc Leischman and Cameron Smith as I write….peak condition? They look more like a couple of bartenders rather than pro athletes from any sport. We have naturals like DJ, Tony Finau, Brooks, et al, but even the “15” are nowhere near peak. With the amount of time it takes to practice and play, professional golfers don’t even have the time to get in peak condition. Soon though, now that the conditioning has started even in many HS programs, the new crop will bring us some players in true peak condition. High intensity training for strength, flexibility, and speed will change the game again in ten years but it’s still a game of skill more than power and always will be. One day, another complete package like Tiger will show up….in PEAK condition.
Patricknorm
Dec 2, 2018 at 11:03 am
I’ll mildly disagree with your post. Yes Marc Leishman doesn’t look fit for a middle distance runner, whereas Cameron Smith does. What’s the ideal fitness level for a world class golfer? I said ideal, meaning a player that can earn say, top 25 status in money and rankings, play 25 tournaments a season , remain injury free, and travel multiple times across times zones. The ideal golf profile is ecto/ meso like Tiger, Cameron Champ, Dustin Johnson and Justin Rose.
I don’t how many tournaments you’ve played where they go 4 rounds 25 times a season. If you’re 20 years old and you’ve been playing tournaments at a high level since you were 12 it’s not a big ask. But if you’ve been on tour for 12 years , your Marc Lesihman body type has made you a very good living. What I’m saying is that appearances can be deceiving . Golf is one of those sports where skill, and strength and endurance are important. In that order too.
Adam
Nov 30, 2018 at 8:23 pm
Would like to see how the top 15 hitters from early/mid 2000’s during 3 year stretch compared to 2016-18. Then we could see if it was more important now than it was back then. You probably have to adjust the earnings piece as a percentage of the total purse payouts to compare the time periods but am curious what it would show.
Gunter Eisenberg
Nov 30, 2018 at 4:21 pm
Of course longer players make more money! What a stupid question. Have you not seen Happy Gilmore?!!?
Greg V
Nov 30, 2018 at 2:30 pm
You have your statistics mixed up in the chart above.