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Do longer hitters really earn more money on the PGA Tour?

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If you have been hiding in the woods for the past 15 years, let me bring you up to speed: the great debate in golf is over distance. Are players hitting the ball further…and maybe even too far? Are working out and better athletes changing the game? In 2001, Hank Keuhne averaged 321 yards off the tee, compared to 318 yards in 2018 for PGA Tour Leader Rory McIlroy.

One should expect changes in distance between 2001-2006-ish, as players adopted better technology in balls and larger head drivers. But since those changes, what does the data say? Here is a chart with the data for players from 2007-2015, which shows year, average driving distance, the leader on the PGA Tour, their driving distance, and the number of players who averaged over 300 yards.

Year PGA Tour avg. driving distance PGA Tour leader (yards) Players avg. over 300 yards
2015 289.7 Dustin Johnson (317.7) 26
2014 288.8 Bubba Watson (314.3) 25
2013 287.2 Luke List (306.8) 13
2012 289.1 Bubba Watson (315.5) 21
2011 290.9 J.B Holmes (318.4) 21
2010 287.3 Robert Garrigus (315.5) 12
2009 287.3 Robert Garrigus (312) 13
2008 287.3 Bubba Watson (315.1) 13
2007 288.6 Bubba Watson (315.2) 18

These numbers suggest that players are not hitting it any further but do not answer the question does distance matter? To answer this question, I looked closer at the numbers to examine the relationship between distance and earnings. When looking at the top 15 longest players over the past 3 years with at least 20 events played, here is the data

Average Earnings / year (for all 15 players) $52,000,000
Average earnings per player/year $3,500,000
Top ten finish on money list 4.3/15 (29%)
Number which maintained their PGA tour card for following year 13.3/15 (89%)
3 Year Total Earnings $157,582,450
3 Year Driving Average 310.2 yards
Average Dollars per yard (longest 15) $508,002
Average Dollars per yard (each player – longest 15) $33,866

Now, let’s compare the top 15 longest players to the shortest 15 players with a minimum of 20 events

Average Earnings / year (for all 15 players) $13,600,000
Average earnings per player/year $910,000
Top ten finish on money list 0/15 (0%)
Number which maintained their PGA tour card for following year 6/15  (40%)
3 Year Total Earnings $41,095,786
3 Year Driving Average 278.6 yards
Average Earnings / Yard (shortest 15 players) $147,508
Average Dollars per Yard (each player – shortest 15) $9,833

In this data set the 15 shortest hitters are averaging 278.6yards/drive (over 3 year period 2016-2018), while the 15 longest hitters are averaging 310.2 yards/drive (over 3 year period 2016-2018). This means each yard to the player at the bottom is worth approximately $9,833, while each drive for the top 15 players yields approximately $33,866.

Based on this simple information it tells us a couple things inherently

1) the players who are on the bottom of the list for driving distance have a distinct motivator for getting all areas covered in their coaching profiles, which includes fitness. Money tends to speak loudly and in this case we believe the trend on tour is showing this.

2) Peak physical conditioning for these golfers is a part of the pie that yields these staggering numbers with respect to earnings. Ignoring that piece of the pie is a very big gamble to the bottom line of the players. It is of our opinion that the reason you see less of the buffet line being utilized and more of the Whole Foods consumption, is that health and wellness matter to these players. The proof is in the numbers and in the last 3-5 years those numbers are speaking very loudly.

 

 

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I am the Co-Director of the Titleist Performance Institute Fitness Advisory Board. I share duties with Jason Glass on establishing protocols for player development in the fields of functional movement restoration, physical screening, strength and power screening and development and for player development globally. I also serve as Lead Instructor for TPI Level 1 and Level 2 Fitness Seminars globally. I have personally taught over 10,000 experts in the fields of; Golf Fitness, Golf Instruction, Medicine, Junior and Biomechanical proficiencies. Serving as lead instructor has taken me all over the world learning from the best fitness, medical and golf instructors that are currently in the industry. I have served the TPI brand loyally for more than 13 years and am actively functioning as the Performance Director at the Institute, overseeing many projects including the development of; PGA, LPGA, EPGA, Web.com, Symetra, Challenge Tour, KPGA, JPGA, KLPGA, JLPGA, and LatinAmerica Tour players, as well as multiple National Federation Teams. My duties include Biomechanical Evaluations, Physical Screening, Program Development, Practice Schedule Development, Periodization of Programs, Coach Education, Trainer Education and Medical Education of player staff. With the comprehensive approach via the TPI methodology, I have helped countless tour players reach and move towards their personal goals and at the same time gain worldwide recognition for the TPI, Titleist and Acushnet brands. I am the President of LG Performance, a private Golf Performance based company specializing in the betterment of golfers in the areas of; Fitness, Screening, Biomechanics, Instruction, Mental, Nutritional, Programming, and Life Coaching. My role expands from touring professionals all the way down to the earliest of Junior Development in 3 to 4 year olds.

19 Comments

19 Comments

  1. Jeff

    Dec 4, 2018 at 1:51 am

    A better correlation would be to compare the 15 longest hitters to the 15 closest to the tour median. It seems obvious the the 15 shortest are at a disadvantage, but the question is really whether the extra distance is a big advantage over tour average distance.

  2. Gregg

    Dec 3, 2018 at 7:47 pm

    Distance is king for off course revenue, that OR boyish good looks and killer style. I’ll take distance!

  3. Louie

    Dec 3, 2018 at 2:33 pm

    Your article is interesting but the conclusions do not necessarily fit the data. From my perspective distance does make a significant difference but course design matters. I would also look at the general stature of today’s golfer. Would be interesting to see how tall and muscular the top 15 are as compared to the lesser group. There are exceptions, like Justin Thomas.

  4. Scrappy

    Dec 3, 2018 at 2:31 pm

    Totally jumped,from driving distance to fitness, without any correlation. Did you intend to prove a connection between strength or fitness with distance or earnings? Because you totally entered a third variable without any data behind it. Shank

  5. TONEY P

    Dec 3, 2018 at 12:55 pm

    Longer hitters should make more on average. If a good golfer is hitting short irons and his competition is having to use middle irons then what is the likely result over a period of time. Even longer average golfers have a distinctive average on weekend rounds over their peers. The ability to hit irons into par 5’s and shorter clubs into par3’s give a great advantage over time in scoring, ie money. Now as far as course management , the advantage goes to the longer player. A

  6. TONEY P

    Dec 3, 2018 at 12:53 pm

    Longer hitters should make more on average. If a good golfer is hitting short irons and his competition is having to use middle irons then what is the likely result over a period of time. Even longer average golfers have a distinctive average on weekend rounds over their peers. The ability to hit irons into par 5’s and shorter clubs into par3’s give a great advantage over time in scoring, ie money. Now as far as course management , the advantage goes to the longer player.

  7. Raven

    Dec 3, 2018 at 12:29 pm

    It’s not that easy to find a simple stat to prove that distance is king as there will always be a flaw in the figures. I could plot all player finishes and distance together for each year then look to see if there is a consistent correlation over the years. But what if, for example, many of the long hitters do so because they are just better golfers? The distance figures then become irrelevant. Maybe a better method could be to find groups of players with similar playing stats (like putts gained etc.) and see if there is a distance/earnings relationship within those groups.

  8. Rich Douglas

    Dec 3, 2018 at 11:57 am

    So I ran the correlation between 2017 money rankings and 2017 driving distance. The result: -0.044494783.

    This says that there is literally no correlation between rankings among the top 50 drivers of the ball. Driving distance, it is very safe to say, is NOT a predictor of earnings.

    Two caveats: First, correlation does not mean cause-and-effect. There may be some other, underlying cause to all of this, but it doesn’t seem likely since there is no statistically significant correlation. Second, I used the money rankings. This is a list of gross creditable earnings, not earnings-per event. This means European players who get to the PGA tour for a minimum number of events are somewhat under-represented. But there aren’t that many and the effect isn’t that big.

    Longer driving does NOT predict higher earnings. I wonder what does…?

  9. Vas

    Dec 3, 2018 at 11:52 am

    I think this is a very well done piece of work, but the variables don’t really match. A better correlation would be looking at the stats available for driving distance and money earned. This would be daunting because most long hitters use 3Ws or driving irons quite often… but if you wanted it enough, you could flesh out the necessary data. My hypothesis would be that pros who can carry drivers (and only looking at drivers) over 300y make significantly more money over the year compared to those who don’t. I think golf is going to see way more Koepka’s in the future, but the average career is going to be far shorter as a result. The new model will be to sacrifice everything for speed, and the one’s that excel will make their living between 25-35, before slowly fading away.

    • Gregg

      Dec 3, 2018 at 7:38 pm

      I like that analysis, but you got a bunch of 40 somethings now who have and continue to bomb it. Some bodies withstand time, some don’t.

  10. Rich Douglas

    Dec 3, 2018 at 11:18 am

    A more reliable analysis would be a correlation between driving distance ranking and money ranking.

    • Rich Douglas

      Dec 3, 2018 at 11:36 am

      Just ran the numbers. There is NO correlation between driving distance and money winnings for the top 10 drivers of the ball. There was a slightly negative correlation (-0.019848574), but that’s not statistically significant.

      Now, this was just with the top 10 in driving distance, not the whole list. Also, the data are slightly skewed because I used the money list instead of winnings per event. (For example, McIlroy is 39th on the 2017 money list, but he played only 14 events.)

      You know what they now say….drive for show, hit accurate mid-irons for dough (Strokes Gained).

  11. CrashTestDummy

    Dec 2, 2018 at 3:40 am

    Of course distance matters. The fact is that it is such a big advantage to hitting shorter clubs into greens. Also, one thing to note is that guys are still longer today even though the data doesn’t show it. The longest guys on PGA tour don’t always use the driver off the tee and use fairway woods or irons off the tee. The course management is better today.

  12. Caroline

    Dec 1, 2018 at 6:40 pm

    We would have had a diffident answer to the long drive making money back when Daly was in his prime had it not been for Alcohol and wife’s.

  13. Tommy

    Dec 1, 2018 at 1:09 am

    You say that today’s players are in peak condition? They are in very good specific condition for playing golf but they are far from peak. I’m watching Marc Leischman and Cameron Smith as I write….peak condition? They look more like a couple of bartenders rather than pro athletes from any sport. We have naturals like DJ, Tony Finau, Brooks, et al, but even the “15” are nowhere near peak. With the amount of time it takes to practice and play, professional golfers don’t even have the time to get in peak condition. Soon though, now that the conditioning has started even in many HS programs, the new crop will bring us some players in true peak condition. High intensity training for strength, flexibility, and speed will change the game again in ten years but it’s still a game of skill more than power and always will be. One day, another complete package like Tiger will show up….in PEAK condition.

    • Patricknorm

      Dec 2, 2018 at 11:03 am

      I’ll mildly disagree with your post. Yes Marc Leishman doesn’t look fit for a middle distance runner, whereas Cameron Smith does. What’s the ideal fitness level for a world class golfer? I said ideal, meaning a player that can earn say, top 25 status in money and rankings, play 25 tournaments a season , remain injury free, and travel multiple times across times zones. The ideal golf profile is ecto/ meso like Tiger, Cameron Champ, Dustin Johnson and Justin Rose.
      I don’t how many tournaments you’ve played where they go 4 rounds 25 times a season. If you’re 20 years old and you’ve been playing tournaments at a high level since you were 12 it’s not a big ask. But if you’ve been on tour for 12 years , your Marc Lesihman body type has made you a very good living. What I’m saying is that appearances can be deceiving . Golf is one of those sports where skill, and strength and endurance are important. In that order too.

  14. Adam

    Nov 30, 2018 at 8:23 pm

    Would like to see how the top 15 hitters from early/mid 2000’s during 3 year stretch compared to 2016-18. Then we could see if it was more important now than it was back then. You probably have to adjust the earnings piece as a percentage of the total purse payouts to compare the time periods but am curious what it would show.

  15. Gunter Eisenberg

    Nov 30, 2018 at 4:21 pm

    Of course longer players make more money! What a stupid question. Have you not seen Happy Gilmore?!!?

  16. Greg V

    Nov 30, 2018 at 2:30 pm

    You have your statistics mixed up in the chart above.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open betting preview

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As the Florida swing comes to an end, the PGA Tour makes its way to Houston to play the Texas Children’s Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course.

This will be the fourth year that Memorial Park Golf Course will serve as the tournament host. The event did not take place in 2023, but the course hosted the event in 2020, 2021 and 2022.

Memorial Park is a par-70 layout measuring 7,432 yards and features Bermudagrass greens. Historically, the main defense for the course has been thick rough along the fairways and tightly mown runoff areas around the greens. Memorial Park has a unique setup that features three Par 5’s and five Par 3’s.

The field will consist of 132 players, with the top 65 and ties making the cut. There are some big names making the trip to Houston, including Scottie Scheffler, Wyndham Clark, Tony Finau, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala.

Past Winners at Memorial Park

  • 2022: Tony Finau (-16)
  • 2021: Jason Kokrak (-10)
  • 2020: Carlos Ortiz (-13)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Memorial Park

Let’s take a look at several metrics for Memorial Park to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds:

Strokes Gained: Approach

Memorial Park is a pretty tough golf course. Golfers are penalized for missing greens and face some difficult up and downs to save par. Approach will be key.

Total Strokes Gained: Approach per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.30)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.26)
  3. Keith Mitchell (+0.97) 
  4. Tony Finau (+0.92)
  5. Jake Knapp (+0.84)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Memorial Park is a long golf course with rough that can be penal. Therefore, a combination of distance and accuracy is the best metric.

Total Strokes Gained: Off the Tee per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+0.94)
  2. Kevin Dougherty (+0.93)
  3. Cameron Champ (+0.86)
  4. Rafael Campos (+0.84)
  5. Si Woo Kim (+0.70)

Strokes Gained Putting: Bermudagrass + Fast

The Bermudagrass greens played fairly fast the past few years in Houston. Jason Kokrak gained 8.7 strokes putting on his way to victory in 2021 and Tony Finau gained in 7.8 in 2022.

Total Strokes Gained Putting (Bermudagrass) per round past 24 rounds (min. 8 rounds):

  1. Adam Svensson (+1.27)
  2. Harry Hall (+1.01)
  3. Martin Trainer (+0.94)
  4. Taylor Montgomery (+0.88)
  5. S.H. Kim (+0.86)

Strokes Gained: Around the Green

With firm and undulating putting surfaces, holding the green on approach shots may prove to be a challenge. Memorial Park has many tightly mowed runoff areas, so golfers will have challenging up-and-down’s around the greens. Carlos Ortiz gained 5.7 strokes around the green on the way to victory in 2020.

Total Strokes Gained: Around the Green per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Mackenzie Hughes (+0.76)
  2. S.H. Kim (+0.68)
  3. Scottie Scheffler (+0.64)
  4. Jorge Campillo (+0.62)
  5. Jason Day (+0.60)

Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult

Memorial Park is a long and difficult golf course. This statistic will incorporate players who’ve had success on these types of tracks in the past. 

Total Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.45)
  2. Ben Griffin (+1.75)
  3. Will Zalatoris (+1.73)
  4. Ben Taylor (+1.53)
  5. Tony Finau (+1.42)

Course History

Here are the players who have performed the most consistently at Memorial Park. 

Strokes Gained Total at Memorial Park past 12 rounds:

  1. Tyson Alexander (+3.65)
  2. Ben Taylor (+3.40)
  3. Tony Finau (+2.37)
  4. Joel Dahmen (+2.25)
  5. Patton Kizzire (+2.16)

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (24%) SG: OTT (24%); SG: Putting Bermudagrass/Fast (13%); SG: Long and Difficult (13%); SG: ARG (13%) and Course History (13%)

  1. Scottie Scheffler
  2. Wyndham Clark
  3. Tony Finau
  4. Joel Dahmen
  5. Stephan Jaeger 
  6. Aaron Rai
  7. Sahith Theegala
  8. Keith Mitchell 
  9. Jhonnatan Vegas
  10. Jason Day
  11. Kurt Kitayama
  12. Alex Noren
  13. Will Zalatoris
  14. Si Woo Kim
  15. Adam Long

2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open Picks

Will Zalatoris +2000 (Caesars)

Scottie Scheffler will undoubtedly be difficult to beat this week, so I’m starting my card with someone who I believe has the talent to beat him if he doesn’t have his best stuff.

Will Zalatoris missed the cut at the PLAYERS, but still managed to gain strokes on approach while doing so. In an unpredictable event with extreme variance, I don’t believe it would be wise to discount Zalatoris based on that performance. Prior to The PLAYERS, the 27-year-old finished T13, T2 and T4 in his previous three starts.

Zalatoris plays his best golf on long and difficult golf courses. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the category, but the eye test also tells a similar story. He’s contended at major championships and elevated events in the best of fields with tough scoring conditions.  The Texas resident should be a perfect fit at Memorial Park Golf Club.

Alex Noren +4500 (FanDuel)

Alex Noren has been quietly playing some of his best golf of the last half decade this season. The 41-year-old is coming off back-to-back top-20 finishes in Florida including a T9 at The PLAYERS in his most recent start.

In his past 24 rounds, Noren ranks 21st in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 30th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, 25th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses and 21st in Strokes Gained: Putting on fast Bermudagrass greens.

In addition to his strong recent play, the Swede also has played well at Memorial Park. In 2022, Noren finished T4 at the event, gaining 2.2 strokes off the tee and 7.0 strokes on approach for the week. In his two starts at the course, he’s gained an average of .6 strokes per round on the field, indicating he is comfortable on these greens.

Noren has been due for a win for what feels like an eternity, but Memorial Park may be the course that suits him well enough for him to finally get his elusive first PGA Tour victory.

Mackenzie Hughes +8000 (FanDuel)

Mackenzie Hughes found himself deep into contention at last week’s Valspar Championship before faltering late and finishing in a tie for 3rd place. While he would have loved to win the event, it’s hard to see the performance as anything other than an overwhelming positive sign for the Canadian.

Hughes has played great golf at Memorial Park in the past. He finished T7 in 2020, T29 in 2021 and T16 in 2022. The course fit seems to be quite strong for Hughes. He’s added distance off the tee in the past year or and ranks 8th in the field for apex height, which will be a key factor when hitting into Memorial Park’s elevated greens with steep run-off areas.

In his past 24 rounds, Hughes is the best player in the field in Strokes Gained: Around the Greens. The ability to scramble at this course will be extremely important. I believe Hughes can build off of his strong finish last week and contend once again to cement himself as a President’s Cup consideration.

Akshay Bhatia +8000 (FanDuel)

Akshay Bhatia played well last week at the Valspar and seemed to be in total control of his golf ball. He finished in a tie for 17th and shot an impressive -3 on a difficult Sunday. After struggling Thursday, Akshay shot 68-70-68 in his next three rounds.

Thus far, Bhatia has played better at easier courses, but his success at Copperhead may be due to his game maturing. The 22-year-old has enormous potential and the raw talent to be one of the best players in the world when he figures it all out.

Bhatia is a high upside play with superstar qualities and may just take the leap forward to the next stage of his career in the coming months.

Cameron Champ +12000 (FanDuel)

Cameron Champ is a player I often target in the outright betting market due to his “boom-or-bust” nature. It’s hard to think of a player in recent history with three PGA Tour wins who’s been as inconsistent as Champ has over the course of his career.

Despite the erratic play, Cam Champ simply knows how to win. He’s won in 2018, 2019 and 2021, so I feel he’s due for a win at some point this season. The former Texas A&M product should be comfortable in Texas and last week he showed us that his game is in a pretty decent spot.

Over his past 24 rounds, Champ ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 30th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses. Given his ability to spike at any given time, Memorial Park is a good golf course to target Champ on at triple digit odds.

Robert MacIntyre +12000 (FanDuel)

The challenge this week is finding players who can possibly beat Scottie Scheffler while also not dumping an enormous amount of money into an event that has a player at the top that looks extremely dangerous. Enter McIntyre, who’s another boom-or-bust type player who has the ceiling to compete with anyone when his game is clicking on all cylinders.

In his past 24 rounds, MacIntyre ranks 16th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 17th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and 10th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses.

MacIntyre’s PGA Tour season has gotten off to a slow start, but he finished T6 in Mexico, which is a course where players will hit driver on the majority of their tee shots, which is what we will see at Memorial Park. Texas can also get quite windy, which should suit MacIntyre. Last July, the Scot went toe to toe with Rory McIlroy at the Scottish Open before a narrow defeat. It would take a similar heroic effort to compete with Scheffler this year in Houston.

Ryan Moore +15000 (FanDuel)

Ryan Moore’s iron play has been absolutely unconscious over his past few starts. At The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field, he gained 6.1 strokes on approach and last week at Copperhead, he gained 9.0 strokes on approach.

It’s been a rough handful of years on Tour for the 41-year-old, but he is still a five-time winner on the PGA Tour who’s young enough for a career resurgence. Moore has chronic deterioration in a costovertebral joint that connects the rib to the spine, but has been getting more consistent of late, which is hopefully a sign that he is getting healthy.

Veterans have been contending in 2024 and I believe taking a flier on a proven Tour play who’s shown signs of life is a wise move at Memorial Park.

 

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Why the race to get better at golf might be doing more harm than good

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B.F. Skinner was one of the most important psychologists of the 20th century, developing the foundation of the development of reinforcement, and in doing so, creating the concept of behaviorism. In simple terms, this means that we are conditioned by our habits. In practical terms, it explains the divide between the few and far between elite instructors and college coaches.

To understand the application, let’s quickly review one of B.F. Skinner’s most important experiments; superstitions in the formation of behavior by pigeons. In this experiment, food was dispensed to pigeons at random intervals. Soon, according to Skinner, the pigeons began to associate whatever action they were doing at the time of the food being dispensed. According to Skinner, this conditioned that response and soon, they simply haphazardly repeated the action, failing to distinguish between cause and correlation (and in the meantime, looking really funny!).

Now, this is simply the best way to describe the actions of most every women’s college golf coach and too many instructors in America. They see something work, get positive feedback and then become conditioned to give the feedback, more and more, regardless of if it works (this is also why tips from your buddies never work!).

Go to a college event, particularly a women’s one, and you will see coaches running all over the place. Like the pigeons in the experiment, they have been conditioned into a codependent relationship with their players in which they believe their words and actions, can transform a round of golf. It is simply hilarious while being equally perturbing

In junior golf, it’s everywhere. Junior golf academies make a living selling parents that a hysterical coach and over-coaching are essential ingredients in your child’s success.

Let’s be clear, no one of any intellect has any real interest in golf — because it’s not that interesting. The people left, including most coaches and instructors, carve out a small fiefdom, usually on the corner of the range, where they use the illusion of competency to pray on people. In simple terms, they baffle people with the bullshit of pseudo-science that they can make you better, after just one more lesson.

The reality is that life is an impromptu game. The world of golf, business, and school have a message that the goal is being right. This, of course, is bad advice, being right in your own mind is easy, trying to push your ideas on others is hard. As a result, it is not surprising that the divorce rate among golf professionals and their instructors is 100 percent. The transfer rate among college players continues to soar, and too many courses have a guy peddling nefarious science to good people. In fact, we do at my course!

The question is, what impact does all this have on college-age and younger kids? At this point, we honestly don’t know. However, I am going to go out on a limb and say it isn’t good.

Soren Kierkegaard once quipped “I saw it for what it is, and I laughed.” The actions of most coaches and instructors in America are laughable. The problem is that I am not laughing because they are doing damage to kids, as well as driving good people away from this game.

The fact is that golfers don’t need more tips, secrets, or lessons. They need to be presented with a better understanding of the key elements of golf. With this understanding, they can then start to frame which information makes sense and what doesn’t. This will emancipate them and allow them to take charge of their own development.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Valspar Championship betting preview: Elite ballstrikers to thrive at Copperhead

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The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2024 Valspar Championship.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermudagrass greens overseeded with POA. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 16, 17 and 18 — also known as the “Snake Pit” — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.

The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. The field this week is solid and is a major improvement over last year’s field that felt the impact of players skipping due to a handful of “signature events” in a short span of time. 

Past Winners at Valspar Championship

  • 2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
  • 2022: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
  • 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
  • 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
  • 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
  • 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Copperhead

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can’t be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)

  1. Tony Finau (+.90)
  2. Nick Taylor (+.81)
  3. Justin Thomas (+.77)
  4. Greyson Sigg (+.69)
  5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+.67)

2. Good Drive %

The long hitters can be a bit limited here due to the tree-lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important, but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.

Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+91.3%) 
  2. Zach Johnson (+91.1%)
  3. Sam Ryder (+90.5%)
  4. Ryan Moore (+90.4%)
  5. Aaron Rai (+89.7%)

3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1.32)
  2. Keith Mitchell (+1.29)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.24)
  4. Cameron Young (+1.17) 
  5. Doug Ghim (+.95)

4. Bogey Avoidance

With the conditions likely to be difficult, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, oftentimes the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.

Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.

Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+9.0)
  2. Xander Schauffele (+9.3)
  3. Austin Cook (+9.7) 
  4. Chesson Hadley (+10.0)
  5. Greyson Sigg (+10.2)

5. Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions

Conditions will be tough this week at Copperhead. I am looking for golfers who can rise to the occasion if the course plays as difficult as it has in the past.

Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1,71) 
  2. Min Woo Lee (+1.39)
  3. Cameron Young (+1.27)
  4. Jordan Spieth (+1.08)
  5. Justin Suh (+.94)

6. Course History

That statistic will tell us which players have played well at Copperhead in the past.

Course History Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+3.75) 
  2. Sam Burns (+2.49)
  3. Davis Riley (+2.33)
  4. Matt NeSmith (+2.22)
  5. Jordan Spieth (+2.04)

The Valspar Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Good Drive % (15%), SG: BS (20%), Bogeys Avoided (13%), Course History (13%) Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions (12%).

  1. Xander Schauffele
  2. Doug Ghim
  3. Victor Perez
  4. Greyson Sigg
  5. Ryan Moore
  6. Tony Finau
  7. Justin Thomas
  8. Sam Ryder
  9. Sam Burns
  10. Lucas Glover

2024 Valspar Championship Picks

Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)

Justin Thomas will be disappointed with his finish at last week’s PLAYERS Championship, as the past champion missed the cut despite being in some decent form heading into the event. Despite the missed cut, JT hit the ball really well. In his two rounds, the two-time major champion led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach per round.

Thomas has been up and down this season. He’s missed the cut in two “signature events” but also has finishes of T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T6 at the Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am and T3 at the American Express. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in the field.

Thomas loves Copperhead. In his last three tries at the course, he’s finished T13, T3 and T10. Thomas would have loved to get a win at a big event early in the season, but avoidable mistakes and a balky putter have cost him dearly. I believe a trip to a course he loves in a field he should be able to capitalize on is the right recipe for JT to right the ship.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (FanDuel)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is playing spectacular golf in the 2024 season. He finished 2nd at the American Express, T20 at Pebble Beach and T24 at the Genesis Invitational before finishing T13 at last week’s PLAYERS Championship.

In his past 24 rounds, the South African ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 26th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. Bezuidenhout managed to work his way around TPC Sawgrass last week with minimal damage. He only made five bogeys in the entire week, which is a great sign heading into a difficult Copperhead this week.

Bezuidenhout is winless in his PGA Tour career, but certainly has the talent to win on Tour. His recent iron play tells me that this week could be a breakthrough for the 35-year-old who has eyes on the President’s Cup.

Doug Ghim +8000 (FanDuel)

Doug Ghim has finished in the top-16 of his past five starts. Most recently, Ghim finished T16 at The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field.

In his past 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 5th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. In terms of his fit for Copperhead, the 27-year-old ranks 12th in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions, making him a great fit for the course.

Ghim has yet to win on Tour, but at one point he was the top ranked Amateur golfer in the world and played in the 2017 Arnold Palmer Cup and 2017 Walker Cup. He then won the Ben Hogan award for the best male college golfer in 2018. He certainly has the talent, and there are signals aplenty that his talent in ready to take him to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour.

Sepp Straka +8000 (BetRivers)

Sepp Straka is a player who’s shown he has the type of game that can translate to a difficult Florida golf course. The former Presidents Cup participant won the 2022 Honda Classic in tough conditions and should thrive with a similar test at Copperhead.

It’s been a slow 2024 for Straka, but his performance last week at the PLAYERS Championship surely provides some optimism. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach as well as 1.88 strokes off the tee. The tee-to-green game Straka showed on a course with plenty of danger demonstrates that he can stay in control of his golf ball this week.

It’s possible that the strong performance last week was an outlier, but I’m willing to bet on a proven winner in a weaker field at a great number.

Victor Perez +12000 (FanDuel)

Victor Perez is no stranger to success in professional golf. The Frenchman has three DP World Tour wins including a Rolex Series event. He won the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, as well as the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which are some big events.

Perez earned his PGA Tour card this season and enters the week playing some fantastic golf. He finished in a tie for 16th in Florida at the Cognizant Classic and then tied for third in his most recent start at the Puerto Rico Open.

In his past 24 rounds in the field, Perez ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 1oth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Good Drive % and 15th in Bogey Avoidance.

Perez comes in as a perfect fit for Copperhead and offers serious value at triple-digit odds.

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