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Opinion & Analysis

Redkacheek’s DFS Rundown: 2018 Mayakoba Golf Classic

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We did it again! Another outright win in the books for 2019 as we crushed the Bryson outright at 15-1 this past week at the Shriners Hospital Open. We also added on a Sam Ryder top five for an additional 14-1 so, all in all, our betting card came through for us up about 24 units. DFS was also a tremendous success with several FGB members and fellow GolfWRXers winning MULTIPLE GPPs!! Overall, we could not have asked much more from the Shriners open and am looking forward to another cut event here at Mayakoba.

In addition to this article and the FGB Podcast which I host each week, I will also be a guest on The Pat Mayo Experience show again this afternoon. If you are looking for even more insight and analysis for this golf course and the field, I highly encourage you to check out Pat’s show this week as he is one of the sharpest golf minds in the industry. Of course, you can always find me on Twitter @Redkacheek and I am more than happy to answer any questions you may have.

Let’s go ahead and take a look at the course.

Here are the details of the course for the Mayakoba Golf Classic:

Course Snapshot

Course: El Camaleon Golf Club at the Mayakoba Resort
City: Playa del Carmen, Mexico
Par: 71
Length: 6,987
Course Difficulty: 70.32 (32nd)
Birdie Average: 3.80 (35th)
Birdie or Better Percentage: 21.55% (33rd)

Course Rankings (OFF THE TEE)

SG: Tee-to-Green: N/A
SG: Off-the-Tee: N/A
Driving Distance: 283.1 (4th)
Driving Accuracy: 64.58% (32nd)

Course Rankings (APPROACH TO THE GREEN)

SG: Approach-the-Green: N/A
GIR Percentage: 67.42 (34th)
Proximity to Hole: N/A
Rough Proximity: N/A
Fairway Proximity: N/A

Course Rankings (AROUND THE GREEN)

SG: Around-the-Green: N/A
Sand Save Percentage: 53.65% (44th)
Scrambling Percentage: 58.46% (30th)

Course Rankings (PUTTING)

SG: Putting: N/A
Putting Average: 1.763 (31st)
One-Putt Percentage: 39.00% (30th)
3-Putt Avoidance: 3.20 (19th)
Putting – Inside 10’: N/A
Putting from – > 25’: N/A

This course has played very consistent over the years and that is great for us as we dig into the key stats. As you can see, Mayakoba is an exceptionally short golf course for today’s standards. The driving accuracy number looks very good (read easy) but do not let that fool you, as driving distance is near the bottom of the pack for the PGA Tour at only 283.1 yards. I will get right to it, this is absolutely an accuracy, tee-shot placement, and second-shot golf course. I certainly wouldn’t rule out any longer hitters, as they likely will be able to club down on most par-4 tee shots and get the ball in play with a 3-wood or even a 2-iron.

Check out these quotes below from Cam Champ and also Jon Rahm that gives the perfect picture of who should play well here:

Cameron Champ: “Obviously it’s very demanding off the tee, but if you hit fairways here, the course is very scorable depending on the weather conditions. Obviously, the wind can pick up some. I hit a lot of 2-irons here, I think half the holes I’ll probably hit 2-iron on the majority of the holes. Par 5s obviously I’ll hit drivers. I just kind of feel comfortable. Even though it’s narrow, it’s just the way it suits my eye, for some reason I just feel comfortable.”

Jon Rahm: “Well, technically it doesn’t suit my game. I mean, it’s really a course for shorter hitters, it’s not really long off the tee. There’s a lot of emphasis and importance on keeping the ball in play off the tee, so that means I’m not able to use my driver as much as I would like to, which is one of my main tools.”

As you can see, driving accuracy and iron play is going to be critical this week, so here are my Key Stats for the week:

• SG: T2G
• SG: APP
• GIRs Gained
• Driving Accuracy
• Par 4 Scoring (400-450)
• Par 5 Scoring
• *Recent Form
• **Course History

The last two are not so much stat driven but should certainly be considered when building out your player pool. I use Course History as a gauge but not a be-all and end-all, and same goes for Recent Form where I like to SEE which guys have some momentum (good or bad) coming into this week.

I am going to list out the top Cash and GPP plays in each price range to help you get a better picture of how to build your lineups…

Expensive

Rickie Fowler (Cash/GPP)
Tony Finau (GPP)
Gary Woodland (Cash/GPP)
Billy Horschel (GPP)
Emiliano Grillo (Cash/GPP)
Charles Howell III (Cash/GPP)

Mid-tier

Zach Johnson (GPP)
Cameron Champ (Cash/GPP)
J.B. Holmes (GPP)
Joaquin Niemann (Cash/GPP)
Ryan Moore (GPP)
Abraham Ancer (GPP)

Value

Sungjae Im (Cash/GPP)
Keith Mitchell (GPP)
Chris Kirk (Cash/GPP)
J.J. Spaun (Cash/GPP)
Harold Varner III (GPP)
Anders Albertson (GPP)
Viktor Hovland* (Relatively expensive and unknown but GOOD at golf)

Super Value

Danny Lee (GPP)
Mack Hughes (Cash/GPP)
Alex Prugh (Cash/GPP)
Richy Werenski (GPP)
Adam Svensson (GPP)

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I am ranked in the Top 35 of all DFS Golf players and best known for winning the DraftKings Millionaire Maker contest during the week of The Masters earlier this year. I am very active around the community, always willing to help whether with strategy or research and you can find me on Twitter @Redkacheek and also each week on the Fantasy Golf Bag Podcast. One last note, my history is in professional golf, which definitely adds a unique perspective to DFS that most people do not have and you will find really gives you an edge when evaluating players each week.

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Opinion & Analysis

This stat indicates Tiger Woods will win major 15 in 2019

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For Tiger Woods’ fans, it’s been over 10 years waiting for his 15th major victory. Even with PGA Tour win No. 80, plenty are already looking ahead to next year’s major.

Looking into Tiger’s performance at the majors in 2018, and more recently the PGA Championship, there’s exciting news for his fans. Tiger briefly held the lead at this year’s Open Championship, only to finish in a tie for sixth. But, it’s his performance at the PGA Championship, when he stormed home for second place thanks to a final round 64, and the recent statistics behind that tournament, that will get his legion of supporters brimming with confidence.

Going back to 2015, strong performances at the PGA Championship have proven to be a great form line for the following year’s major winners. In fact, if you go back further into the records, it extends for several years prior as well. Let’s take a look at recent PGA Championship results and the players that emerged from those performances that lead to major victory the next year.

The 2017 PGA Championship was one of the strongest forms lines in recent years. Justin Thomas won the tournament by two shots, but Patrick Reed, and Francisco Molinari tied for second. Reed went on to win this year’s Masters and Molinari won the Open Championship to capture their first major championships.

At the 2016 PGA Championship, Jimmy Walker surprised the field with victory, but an emerging talent in Brooks Koepka finished tied for fourth and would go on to secure his 1st major in 2017 by winning the U.S. Open. Interesting, Patrick Reed and Francisco Molinari were also just outside the top-10.

The 2015 PGA Championship was won by Jason Day, but current world No. 1 Dustin Johnson finished tied for seventh. Dustin went on to win his first major, the U.S. Open, the following year at the Oakmont Country Club. Also worth noting: Jordan Spieth finished second to Jason Day and went close to winning the Masters the next year only to finish in second place.

Fast forward to this year’s PGA Championship where Tiger finished second behind Brooks Koepka. Is it a sign that his 10-year major drought could end in 2019? And don’t forget, if Tiger has a great chance in 2019, then surely players that finished around him in that tournament, such as Adam Scott, Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas and Gary Woodland, must have high hopes for 2019 too?

All this is true and only time will tell if the tournament form line stacks up.

Anyway you look at the 2018 PGA Championship results, it’s a great form line for 2019, and Tiger could well be in the mix in the big ones next year. With his body coping well with the rigors of the tough PGA Tour circuit, Tiger Woods’ fans can be feeling good about his chances for the 2019 season.

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Courses

Hidden Gem of the Day: Boulder Creek Golf Club in Streetsboro, Ohio

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These aren’t the traditional “top-100” golf courses in America, or the ultra-private golf clubs you can’t get onto. These are the hidden gems; they’re accessible to the public, they cost less than $50, but they’re unique, beautiful and fun to play in their own right. We recently asked our GolfWRX Members to help us find these “hidden gems.” We’re treating this as a bucket list of golf courses to play across the country, and the world. If you have a personal favorite hidden gem, submit it here! 

Today’s Hidden Gem of the Day was submitted by GolfWRX member JimGantz, who takes us to Boulder Creek Golf Club in Streetsboro, Ohio. Just 30 minutes from downtown Cleveland, Boulder Creek features over 100 feet of elevation changes, and when you look at the photos of the course, it’s easy to see why this track landed in our hidden gem thread. JimGantz gives us a concise description of the course, praising it for its nice blend of different hole types.

“Conditions are always top notch. Fluffy bunkers, thick-ish rough.  Staff are super friendly. Good mix of long and short holes which is something I like. I’m not a huge fan of playing a course where every par 3 is over 200yds. This track mixes it up.”

According to Boulder Creek Golf Club’s website, 18 holes with a cart from Monday-Thursday will set you back $40, while to play on the weekend costs $50. Seniors can play the course for as little as $25 during the week.

@BoulderCreekOH

@amgolferblog

@troymezz

Check out the full forum thread here, and submit your Hidden Gem.

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Podcasts

The Gear Dive: Flightscope’s Alex Trujillo on why all golfers need shot data technology

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In this episode of the GearDive, Johnny chats with Alex Trujillo Sr. Sales Manager for Flightscope about understanding data, how information can make sense to your average golfer, why everyone should utilize data, and the downside of too much data.

Check out the full podcast on SoundCloud below, or click here to listen on iTunes!

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