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Louisville Golf: Post time for persimmon

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“I knew I had to give it a shot. If I had tried and it didn’t work out, I would’ve been okay with that. But I had to go after my passion and see where it went.”

Jeremy Wright gets it. Taking over at Louisville Golf is not for everybody. This isn’t a multi-billion-dollar revenue generating machine with private research facilities and elaborate corporate complexes. It’s not about money…or fame…or 385-yard drives. Gerard Just, the youngest of the Just brothers who started Louisville Golf might have summed it up best:

“You know, I guess you could say we’re simple people. We don’t really go on vacations. But we work hard and we enjoy what we do. We don’t make a lot of money. I don’t think my kids could afford to work here to be honest, but they hate their jobs. We never really had that problem.”

Louisville Golf was established in 1974 by Elmore Just and Steve Taylor when they left Hillerich & Bradsby (crafters of Louisville Slugger baseball bats and Power-Bilt golf clubs). Elmore ran the business side of the company and Steve oversaw the manufacturing aspect. Back then, in the heyday of persimmon, the club manufacturers were on an allotment. Since persimmon (remarkably well-suited for golf clubs due to its strength and density) is a relatively slow-growing wood, there was only so much material to go around and upstart Louisville Golf had to fight for every block they got. Eventually, they built the business into a major player, making 800 clubs a day for the likes of Hogan, MacGregor, Wilson, Spalding, and others.

Master models for Louisville Golf persimmon club heads

Some of Louisville Golf’s more well-known woods that won on the PGA Tour were the Wilson Whale that Payne Stewart used to win the 1989 PGA Championship and the Hogan Apex that Tom Kite used to win the 1992 US Open at Pebble Beach. Then metal woods came into the picture and sales dwindled. When Callaway launched the Big Bertha, sales basically dried up overnight.

Though metal woods took off like a rocket in the 1990’s, there were some holdouts. Justin Leonard, Davis Love III, and Mark Calcavecchia held onto their persimmon woods into the late 90s. The last man standing was widely considered to be Bob Estes, who used his Louisville Golf Smart ProBE (a club Just developed specifically for Estes) in the Accenture Match Play in 2001.

When Elmore Just passed away in April of 2001, his brother Mike assumed control of the company. Elmore is actually buried at Persimmon Ridge Golf Club in Louisville, an Arthur Hills course he developed in the 1980’s. When Mike took the reins, though the company had successfully limped along through the metal wood revolution, the hard reality was that they needed to reinvent themselves if they were going to remain profitable. Mike left his mark on the company in 2004 by deciding to leverage Louisville Golf’s unique expertise into crafting period-correct hickory shafted golf clubs and restoring vintage specimens. That decision marked a resurgence of sorts, as the niche has served Louisville Golf well. Today, Louisville Golf and St. Andrews Golf Co. are the only large scale manufacturers of such equipment.

Louisville Golf club heads ready for final assembly

It’s a peculiar set of circumstances to be sure, but oddly enough, many golfers in the 21st century have found Louisville Golf through 100-year-old golf clubs. This is exactly how Jeremy Wright came into the picture. Jeremy was a medical sales representative in Houston, TX with a wife, three kids, and a serious golfing hobby. He had recently gone on a search for an exotic shaft upgrade for his Scotty Cameron putter. On a whim, he googled wooden shafts, stumbled across hickory golf clubs, and the rest was history.

“One of the things I learned in that search was that, when the golf industry transitioned from hickory shafts to steel, a lot of players either kept their old hickory putters or would fit their new putters with hickory shafts for decades after that transition because the feel was so much better.

“So I kept digging into hickory golf and tried to learn what it was all about. I discovered there were hickory tournaments and the winners shot like 75-78 and I thought, ‘I can do that. I’m going to get a hickory set together and figure this out.’ From that point on, I was hooked. There was no going back.”

So hooked, in fact, that when Jeremy heard the Just family was fielding offers for the company as a result of Mike’s passing in October of 2016, he put his name in the hat. It just so happened that Jeremy and his wife were both at a point in their careers where they were looking for more. Burned out and tired of the cyclical corporate rat race, they decided to go all-in on Jeremy’s passion, submitted an offer to the Just family, and ultimately were selected from multiple potential suitors to carry on the legacy of the company.

Sole plates for Louisville Golf persimmon fairway woods

As for where Louisville Golf goes from here, you can probably expect a lot more of what got them here in the first place. After all, one of the biggest reasons Jeremy was selected to take the reins at Louisville Golf was his commitment to preserving its heritage.  Louisville Golf may not be rubbing elbows with the major OEM’s anymore, but these days, they’re not trying to either. Just like the rest of us golfers, they’re getting by with grit, optimism, and respect for the game. They’ve also seen the fortunate bounces and bad lies that come with a life dedicated to golf, but as the old adage says, the most important shot is always the next one. Time marches on. And so does Louisville Golf. They remain committed to what has brought them this far and see that as a springboard into the future.

“We’ve got some products in the works that I think are really innovative and will show what persimmon is really capable of. I think if you’re a better player who can find the sweet spot on a consistent basis, you really should think seriously about persimmon. Especially if you’re looking to get a specific yardage out of your clubs like with a fairway wood or hybrid. There was a video circulating a few years ago with Rickie Fowler using a steel shafted persimmon fairway wood and he was getting a 1.49 smash factor. You can’t get much better than that. The way the bulge and roll is shaped on a persimmon wood and also the location of the CG allows for a bigger gear effect than modern titanium woods. Persimmons do impart more spin on the ball (especially on a mishit), so we acknowledge the ball may not go as far, but that spin also brings the ball back to the target, too. That’s one of the biggest advantages of persimmon. You’ll be shorter but in the fairway as opposed to long and in the trees.

“The people that find us are looking for a deeper connection to the tradition and the spirit of the game. They’re tired of paying for marketing fluff and silly catch phrases. We make viable alternatives for the modern golfer, we make classic reproductions of the steel shaft/persimmon head era of golf, and we make spot-on hickory shafted clubs as well, so we think we have a place in just about everyone’s bag depending on how you prefer to experience the game. Nothing compares to the joy of a purely struck golf shot with a wooden golf club. You just feel like you’re playing golf the way it was meant to be played.”

A visit to Louisville Golf reveals a group of people who have dedicated their lives to exactly that: playing the game the way it was meant to be played. Hard work, attention to detail, a commitment to quality, and having a lot of fun along the way are the hallmarks of their operation. One strike directly on that persimmon sweet spot will send all of those vibes straight into your bones. Playing golf with persimmon woods in the 21st century may be taking the road less traveled, but it could make all the difference.

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Peter Schmitt is an avid golfer trying to get better every day, the definition of which changes relatively frequently. He believes that first and foremost, golf should be an enjoyable experience. Always. Peter is a former Marine and a full-time mechanical engineer (outside of the golf industry). He lives in Lexington, KY with his wife and two young kids. "What other people may find in poetry or art museums, I find in the flight of a good drive." -Arnold Palmer

39 Comments

39 Comments

  1. Pingback: 2020 GolfWRX Holiday Gift Guide: Golf gifts for the Purist – GolfWRX

  2. John L.

    Dec 16, 2018 at 4:29 pm

    Fantastic article. I’m an avid golfer who caddied and began playing during the late persimmon era of the 1980s, but, like many others, jumped to metal woods in search of more distance…under the mistaken notion that more distance would equal more “fun”.

    Several years ago, after burning out after buying the latest $400 460cc monster driver, I finally realized the error of my ways. I abandoned the 7,200 yard tees and moved up to 6,300…and began playing either a set of vintage steel shafted blades and persimmon woods or a set of hickory shafted clubs with persimmon heads.

    Golf is once again fun…and I am now playing golf SHOTS, and not just the bomb & gouge game of “hit”.

    Thank you Louisville and Jeremy. I own several of your clubs and I love them !!! You are restoring the art of shotmaking to the game…and bringing back the fun as well.

    Well played Sir…well played.

  3. sergizmo

    Dec 15, 2018 at 9:56 pm

    Hopefully Louisville can survive and possibly thrive going forward. Probably the one “made in USA” club manufacturer left.

    In 2019 I’m gaming 1-3-5 Classic 50’s woods all year. Bought them several years ago direct from Lousiville and played them on and off but not all year. I need t commit to it. It’s so much more enjoyable than the modern stuff. I also have a Smart Pro BE with graphite and a steel shafted 9 Niblick but don’t get along with them as much as the Classic 50s.

    Thank you Just family for your excellent customer service, craftsmanship, value (for the work that goes into these things, they are very reasonable) and left handed availability.

  4. stevek

    Dec 13, 2018 at 3:32 pm

    A persimmon driver head with a stiff steel shaft is completely different than one with a whippy hickory shaft. Why?

  5. Ed Nelson

    Dec 13, 2018 at 7:42 am

    I worked at LG between the peak and trough of persimmon. I consider it an honor. I played golf at Persimmon Ridge with Mike in a regular Saturday foursome. I still remember fondly rounds in the high humidity of the Ohio River Valley, carrying our clubs and experiencing golf as it was meant to be—-tough!

  6. jack

    Dec 13, 2018 at 6:33 am

    not post time for persimmon but “past” time …

  7. James Bucher

    Dec 12, 2018 at 11:30 pm

    A nice read about the folks at LG. I learned about them when I first started playing hickory golf. There is nothing like striping a hickory driver straight down the fairway! It really surprises me that more people don’t play and practice with Hickory/ classic persimmon clubs. When going back to my modern clubs after playing Hickory clubs my ball striking is more pure.
    OGO put your modern bag in the corner and play with some Hickory clubs and find out if you play them?

    • Dick Verinder

      Dec 14, 2018 at 11:39 am

      My modern bag and clubs is no longer ‘in the corner’; not even in the garage – tis a vague memory of long ago. Louisville’s hickories are a blessing for older golfers.

  8. Keith Finley

    Dec 12, 2018 at 5:32 pm

    I still practice with my MacGregor Jumbo Ozaki model. Has a factory Aldila HM 40. Great club.

  9. Loy Seal

    Dec 12, 2018 at 3:48 pm

    I began working on clubs in 1974 and soon discovered Louisville Golf. I sold a lot of drivers made with their heads and still have my personal driver (deep face, mahogany finish with my Seal logo on the crown, DGS300 shaft and Victory grip). I will have to put it back in my bag to try again. I don’t know about the stiff shaft though.

    One of my favorite things to do was to refinish persimmon woods back to the factory finish, complete with the factory decals. I made a lot of money with persimmon.

  10. TONEY P

    Dec 12, 2018 at 1:30 pm

    I started hitting golf balls with a few hickory clubs my dad had. Nothing felt better than a well striped shot and persimmon heads were beautiful. Golf has changed alot since then.

  11. Jim Lynch

    Dec 12, 2018 at 12:35 pm

    I’ve been a club builder since the mid-80’s (my pro still asks me to whip the random persimmon head coming in for repairs cause he can’t do it!) and recall “buying out” a lot of the inventory of LG when they were winding down and almost OOB back in maybe 1989-ish? I still have a few boxes of pre-whipped heads and some one-offs that I can’t seem to part with. Great company and thank God they are still around and thriving. I do some business with Linksoul and saw that they have their own line of LG-built woods at some serious prices. Kudos to them as well for helping to keep persimmon out there and available to a new generation. As far as the technical discussion about playability…I took my DG S300 shafted circa-’88 LG #4 wood out to the range to compare with my Ping hybrids last fall and it flew by my 18-degree G30 by at least 10 yards. No lie. All day. It’s back in the bag already.

  12. Tom Wishon

    Dec 12, 2018 at 12:17 pm

    It truly was one of my greatest honors and memories to have been friends and to have worked in business with the Just brothers, Elmore, Mike and Ron as well as the superb people who shared the vision including Art Henry and Mike Lenahan. These were people who did it for the right reasons – pride and craftsmanship with money way down the list. Elmore also was the vision behind forming the first professional organization for custom clubmakers and his commitment to the game through the development of the Persimmon Ridge GC was just an overflow of the golf passion he had and his brothers shared. I’m pleased to hear that the company is going forward because the world and the golf industry needs more companies and people like this. Good on you Peter Schmitt for shining a light on Louisville Golf.

    • Peter Schmitt

      Dec 13, 2018 at 9:47 am

      Thanks for chiming in, Tom! Cheers!

  13. David Palosaari

    Dec 12, 2018 at 11:33 am

    I am your typical 61 year old hack. Used set of Hogan Apex was my first set of clubs.
    I think I was reading an article about this company and called them to see what they were all about. I talked with Elmore must have been a year or two before he passed 99,2000 somewhere in there I believe. So excited to talk about their clubs. So I bought a driver. Most beautiful club I own! I am proud to say I own a Louisville Golf driver! Now I don’t use it because I don’t want to scuff it up. I actually think the old blades and persimmon woods tended to make us TRY and hit the ball more squarely. Great article thanks

  14. joro

    Dec 12, 2018 at 11:15 am

    As an old wood club maker I did all the custom clubs for the Pros and others. We made some good Woods at Cobra in the 70s and early 80s until Metal took over. They required a lot of steps to make and build in the desired specs;, but it was really fun. They weren’t as long as todays Drivers but the feel and sound was wonderful. I would like to go back to those days on the Tour so the Bombers would have to work harder and use their skills more. The 450 Par 4s would not be a drive and a wedge, and although they would still be the longest it would help equalize things for the shorter hitter.

    Their is nothing like hitting a good shot with wood,

  15. Locust

    Dec 12, 2018 at 8:37 am

    Peter, well done my friend. I have been following your persimmon journey along with the Louisville Golf renaissance for the past year or so. I sense the momentum created by those of us who are tired of the game being bastardized by over commercialization. As many people have come to realize, the game has grown too far way from it’s roots. Jeremy Wright is a pleasure to work with and I encourage everyone to take a strong look at his company. The craftsmanship at Louisville is undeniable. Playing persimmon will help you find your game, and quite possibly, even your soul.

  16. Brad

    Dec 12, 2018 at 2:48 am

    This is real, honest golf. I admit that I do love smashing metal “woods” miles down the fairway. But, there is something about hitting a real wood right out of the middle that nothing can quite beat.

  17. David Perez

    Dec 11, 2018 at 8:40 pm

    As Jeremy’s former medical sales partner in Houston, I can attest to His passion for Golf. He is a student of the game and I’m just so happy he is one of the “lucky ones” who had not only the ability, but guts to go all-in on something he loves every single day! He was a successful medical sales Consultant (not rep, as he was probably being modest in his description of his former glory days) and I’m not surprised at his commitment and success in this endeavor. All the best to you, Jeremy. May every drive be straight and true. dp

  18. chuck harvey iv

    Dec 11, 2018 at 8:27 pm

    It has been a long time since I played persimmon, when I rarely missed a fairway. I used Bailey&Izett woods persimmon & still have my 3&4 wood. Would love to have a driver. Keep us informed. The best to you.

    Chuck

  19. Scott

    Dec 11, 2018 at 6:47 pm

    Well done, Peter! Jeremy and the incredible craftsman at LG ensure the finest replicated hickory clubs available. The hickory game encompasses ALL aspects of the way the game used to be…and what it has seemingly lost over time. The style (knickers/Plus Fours), artistry, camraderie, fine scotch (wee nip), and required skill are all part of the true experience. I hope empassioned, distinguished players will take a moment to google “hickory golf”, visit sites like the Society of Hickory Golfers, and consider expanding and enriching their connection to the game…and the people with whom they share it. There are growing groups, hickory days, and tournaments in all regions of the country…and all are welcomed by deep sincere friendship, rarely found in the modern game. If golf is in your soul, come play
    the hickory game…a tie that binds.
    Visit: http://www.hickorygolfers.com

    • ogo

      Dec 11, 2018 at 8:08 pm

      Not for the average recreational golfer who can’t break 100 honestly by the rules. A lovely persimmon driver in their hands would be scuffed with skymarks all over the varnish paint finish to reveal his abject incompetence and clownish play.

  20. James Kaiser

    Dec 11, 2018 at 6:26 pm

    Jeremy Wright is a very humble person. He shot 66- 72 to win the Heart of America by a bunch of shots this past summer, he’s one so many modern day hickory titles it would make your head spin, he is sort of like the new Tiger Woods of Hickory golf taking the title over from Randy Jensen. He also won the Foxboro Hickory championships playing reproduction Gutty Percha balls and set a course record he’s an amazing golfer. By the way Andy Just also won the Natuonal Hickory Golf Championship and is an amazing hickory golfer. I can pretty much guarantee you that if Andy or Jeremy play Tiger Woods and it was Tigers first time playing hickory golf he would get a run for his money by either one of these golfers. Been trying to get Justin Thomas out to play these guys too but Justin must be scared to play them????

  21. Andrew Just

    Dec 11, 2018 at 5:58 pm

    Great article here. As the son of Elmore Just and a man who wanted to take over the business, I can honestly – jeremy is right for LG. I wish them nothing but the best. I am a lifelong tried and true customer who uses LG in both modern and hickory play.

    • Peter Schmitt

      Dec 11, 2018 at 6:24 pm

      Hi Andrew! Glad you enjoyed it and thanks for the kind words. Your family started something very special that you are no doubt very proud of so I consider your opinion high praise indeed. I look forward to building a proper stable of Louisville Golf clubs myself in the (hopefully) near future.

  22. Robert T Leonard

    Dec 11, 2018 at 5:21 pm

    I have beautiful persimmons (refinished Clevelands from the 80’s) that I might like to occasionally play with. I usually play with ProV1’s or TP5’s golf balls. Should I play with a softer ball if using persimmon woods?

    • Peter Schmitt

      Dec 11, 2018 at 5:56 pm

      Yes I would advise a softer ball. The Wilson Duo lineup is very popular among the persimmon crowd due to its low compression. I think Chrome Soft (not the X) is relatively low as well. You’ll also find the feel to be super addicting IMO. Happy hunting. Isn’t it fun?

      • Robert T Leonard

        Dec 11, 2018 at 6:37 pm

        Will try the Wilson. Thank you.

  23. Steve

    Dec 11, 2018 at 2:28 pm

    I have a set, driver and niblicks… the niblicks are a great idea except that I play on a lot of hardpan… the driver is brilliant, but I mostly use it for practice.

  24. ogo

    Dec 11, 2018 at 2:16 pm

    Persimmon… no COR… no weight adjustment… no 460cc… no hosel adjustments… no impact crack… no annual status model change… just wood body, plastic faceplate, lead backweight, steel soleplate and varnish. That’s no fuuun…. 😛

    • Peter Schmitt

      Dec 11, 2018 at 4:31 pm

      If memory serves me right, I think the COR for a persimmon wood is generally around 0.78 for what it’s worth. Not exactly right at the 0.83 limit, but no slouch either. And Jeremy actually showed me a vintage hickory shafted persimmon wood with an adjustable hosel, so it was actually done long before it was considered “cool.”

      • Andrew Just

        Dec 11, 2018 at 6:01 pm

        People freak out when I hit a PROV1 with hickory shafts and Persimmon heads further than their Taylor Mades

      • ogo

        Dec 11, 2018 at 8:00 pm

        Thank you for your brave presence on this open fine forum provided by the fine GWRX folks… your personal responses are appreciated. Now… do you own a persimmon driver? I do, an old Powerbilt driver with an A-flex steel shaft, not exactly hickory. I love that or gasmic {{{THUD}}} upon impact between the scr ews… it’s glorious …!!

        • Peter Schmitt

          Dec 11, 2018 at 9:10 pm

          I own several steel-shafted persimmon woods and am hoping to dive head first into the hickory shafted realm in the near future. Like most people, I left persimmon behind back in the 90’s. Once I went back, though, I kind of forgot why I left. When you hit a balata ball perfectly with a persimmon wood, it changes you….

          • Tay

            Dec 14, 2018 at 2:32 pm

            You would love the hickory game. Give it a try. For me, it was like learning the game all over again (in a good way).

  25. A. Commoner

    Dec 11, 2018 at 1:50 pm

    A really good article. We could use more writing like this.

    • Peter Schmitt

      Dec 11, 2018 at 3:10 pm

      We could use more comments like this too! Appreciate the kind words.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open betting preview

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As the Florida swing comes to an end, the PGA Tour makes its way to Houston to play the Texas Children’s Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course.

This will be the fourth year that Memorial Park Golf Course will serve as the tournament host. The event did not take place in 2023, but the course hosted the event in 2020, 2021 and 2022.

Memorial Park is a par-70 layout measuring 7,432 yards and features Bermudagrass greens. Historically, the main defense for the course has been thick rough along the fairways and tightly mown runoff areas around the greens. Memorial Park has a unique setup that features three Par 5’s and five Par 3’s.

The field will consist of 132 players, with the top 65 and ties making the cut. There are some big names making the trip to Houston, including Scottie Scheffler, Wyndham Clark, Tony Finau, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala.

Past Winners at Memorial Park

  • 2022: Tony Finau (-16)
  • 2021: Jason Kokrak (-10)
  • 2020: Carlos Ortiz (-13)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Memorial Park

Let’s take a look at several metrics for Memorial Park to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds:

Strokes Gained: Approach

Memorial Park is a pretty tough golf course. Golfers are penalized for missing greens and face some difficult up and downs to save par. Approach will be key.

Total Strokes Gained: Approach per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.30)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.26)
  3. Keith Mitchell (+0.97) 
  4. Tony Finau (+0.92)
  5. Jake Knapp (+0.84)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Memorial Park is a long golf course with rough that can be penal. Therefore, a combination of distance and accuracy is the best metric.

Total Strokes Gained: Off the Tee per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+0.94)
  2. Kevin Dougherty (+0.93)
  3. Cameron Champ (+0.86)
  4. Rafael Campos (+0.84)
  5. Si Woo Kim (+0.70)

Strokes Gained Putting: Bermudagrass + Fast

The Bermudagrass greens played fairly fast the past few years in Houston. Jason Kokrak gained 8.7 strokes putting on his way to victory in 2021 and Tony Finau gained in 7.8 in 2022.

Total Strokes Gained Putting (Bermudagrass) per round past 24 rounds (min. 8 rounds):

  1. Adam Svensson (+1.27)
  2. Harry Hall (+1.01)
  3. Martin Trainer (+0.94)
  4. Taylor Montgomery (+0.88)
  5. S.H. Kim (+0.86)

Strokes Gained: Around the Green

With firm and undulating putting surfaces, holding the green on approach shots may prove to be a challenge. Memorial Park has many tightly mowed runoff areas, so golfers will have challenging up-and-down’s around the greens. Carlos Ortiz gained 5.7 strokes around the green on the way to victory in 2020.

Total Strokes Gained: Around the Green per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Mackenzie Hughes (+0.76)
  2. S.H. Kim (+0.68)
  3. Scottie Scheffler (+0.64)
  4. Jorge Campillo (+0.62)
  5. Jason Day (+0.60)

Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult

Memorial Park is a long and difficult golf course. This statistic will incorporate players who’ve had success on these types of tracks in the past. 

Total Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.45)
  2. Ben Griffin (+1.75)
  3. Will Zalatoris (+1.73)
  4. Ben Taylor (+1.53)
  5. Tony Finau (+1.42)

Course History

Here are the players who have performed the most consistently at Memorial Park. 

Strokes Gained Total at Memorial Park past 12 rounds:

  1. Tyson Alexander (+3.65)
  2. Ben Taylor (+3.40)
  3. Tony Finau (+2.37)
  4. Joel Dahmen (+2.25)
  5. Patton Kizzire (+2.16)

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (24%) SG: OTT (24%); SG: Putting Bermudagrass/Fast (13%); SG: Long and Difficult (13%); SG: ARG (13%) and Course History (13%)

  1. Scottie Scheffler
  2. Wyndham Clark
  3. Tony Finau
  4. Joel Dahmen
  5. Stephan Jaeger 
  6. Aaron Rai
  7. Sahith Theegala
  8. Keith Mitchell 
  9. Jhonnatan Vegas
  10. Jason Day
  11. Kurt Kitayama
  12. Alex Noren
  13. Will Zalatoris
  14. Si Woo Kim
  15. Adam Long

2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open Picks

Will Zalatoris +2000 (Caesars)

Scottie Scheffler will undoubtedly be difficult to beat this week, so I’m starting my card with someone who I believe has the talent to beat him if he doesn’t have his best stuff.

Will Zalatoris missed the cut at the PLAYERS, but still managed to gain strokes on approach while doing so. In an unpredictable event with extreme variance, I don’t believe it would be wise to discount Zalatoris based on that performance. Prior to The PLAYERS, the 27-year-old finished T13, T2 and T4 in his previous three starts.

Zalatoris plays his best golf on long and difficult golf courses. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the category, but the eye test also tells a similar story. He’s contended at major championships and elevated events in the best of fields with tough scoring conditions.  The Texas resident should be a perfect fit at Memorial Park Golf Club.

Alex Noren +4500 (FanDuel)

Alex Noren has been quietly playing some of his best golf of the last half decade this season. The 41-year-old is coming off back-to-back top-20 finishes in Florida including a T9 at The PLAYERS in his most recent start.

In his past 24 rounds, Noren ranks 21st in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 30th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, 25th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses and 21st in Strokes Gained: Putting on fast Bermudagrass greens.

In addition to his strong recent play, the Swede also has played well at Memorial Park. In 2022, Noren finished T4 at the event, gaining 2.2 strokes off the tee and 7.0 strokes on approach for the week. In his two starts at the course, he’s gained an average of .6 strokes per round on the field, indicating he is comfortable on these greens.

Noren has been due for a win for what feels like an eternity, but Memorial Park may be the course that suits him well enough for him to finally get his elusive first PGA Tour victory.

Mackenzie Hughes +8000 (FanDuel)

Mackenzie Hughes found himself deep into contention at last week’s Valspar Championship before faltering late and finishing in a tie for 3rd place. While he would have loved to win the event, it’s hard to see the performance as anything other than an overwhelming positive sign for the Canadian.

Hughes has played great golf at Memorial Park in the past. He finished T7 in 2020, T29 in 2021 and T16 in 2022. The course fit seems to be quite strong for Hughes. He’s added distance off the tee in the past year or and ranks 8th in the field for apex height, which will be a key factor when hitting into Memorial Park’s elevated greens with steep run-off areas.

In his past 24 rounds, Hughes is the best player in the field in Strokes Gained: Around the Greens. The ability to scramble at this course will be extremely important. I believe Hughes can build off of his strong finish last week and contend once again to cement himself as a President’s Cup consideration.

Akshay Bhatia +8000 (FanDuel)

Akshay Bhatia played well last week at the Valspar and seemed to be in total control of his golf ball. He finished in a tie for 17th and shot an impressive -3 on a difficult Sunday. After struggling Thursday, Akshay shot 68-70-68 in his next three rounds.

Thus far, Bhatia has played better at easier courses, but his success at Copperhead may be due to his game maturing. The 22-year-old has enormous potential and the raw talent to be one of the best players in the world when he figures it all out.

Bhatia is a high upside play with superstar qualities and may just take the leap forward to the next stage of his career in the coming months.

Cameron Champ +12000 (FanDuel)

Cameron Champ is a player I often target in the outright betting market due to his “boom-or-bust” nature. It’s hard to think of a player in recent history with three PGA Tour wins who’s been as inconsistent as Champ has over the course of his career.

Despite the erratic play, Cam Champ simply knows how to win. He’s won in 2018, 2019 and 2021, so I feel he’s due for a win at some point this season. The former Texas A&M product should be comfortable in Texas and last week he showed us that his game is in a pretty decent spot.

Over his past 24 rounds, Champ ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 30th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses. Given his ability to spike at any given time, Memorial Park is a good golf course to target Champ on at triple digit odds.

Robert MacIntyre +12000 (FanDuel)

The challenge this week is finding players who can possibly beat Scottie Scheffler while also not dumping an enormous amount of money into an event that has a player at the top that looks extremely dangerous. Enter McIntyre, who’s another boom-or-bust type player who has the ceiling to compete with anyone when his game is clicking on all cylinders.

In his past 24 rounds, MacIntyre ranks 16th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 17th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and 10th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses.

MacIntyre’s PGA Tour season has gotten off to a slow start, but he finished T6 in Mexico, which is a course where players will hit driver on the majority of their tee shots, which is what we will see at Memorial Park. Texas can also get quite windy, which should suit MacIntyre. Last July, the Scot went toe to toe with Rory McIlroy at the Scottish Open before a narrow defeat. It would take a similar heroic effort to compete with Scheffler this year in Houston.

Ryan Moore +15000 (FanDuel)

Ryan Moore’s iron play has been absolutely unconscious over his past few starts. At The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field, he gained 6.1 strokes on approach and last week at Copperhead, he gained 9.0 strokes on approach.

It’s been a rough handful of years on Tour for the 41-year-old, but he is still a five-time winner on the PGA Tour who’s young enough for a career resurgence. Moore has chronic deterioration in a costovertebral joint that connects the rib to the spine, but has been getting more consistent of late, which is hopefully a sign that he is getting healthy.

Veterans have been contending in 2024 and I believe taking a flier on a proven Tour play who’s shown signs of life is a wise move at Memorial Park.

 

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Why the race to get better at golf might be doing more harm than good

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B.F. Skinner was one of the most important psychologists of the 20th century, developing the foundation of the development of reinforcement, and in doing so, creating the concept of behaviorism. In simple terms, this means that we are conditioned by our habits. In practical terms, it explains the divide between the few and far between elite instructors and college coaches.

To understand the application, let’s quickly review one of B.F. Skinner’s most important experiments; superstitions in the formation of behavior by pigeons. In this experiment, food was dispensed to pigeons at random intervals. Soon, according to Skinner, the pigeons began to associate whatever action they were doing at the time of the food being dispensed. According to Skinner, this conditioned that response and soon, they simply haphazardly repeated the action, failing to distinguish between cause and correlation (and in the meantime, looking really funny!).

Now, this is simply the best way to describe the actions of most every women’s college golf coach and too many instructors in America. They see something work, get positive feedback and then become conditioned to give the feedback, more and more, regardless of if it works (this is also why tips from your buddies never work!).

Go to a college event, particularly a women’s one, and you will see coaches running all over the place. Like the pigeons in the experiment, they have been conditioned into a codependent relationship with their players in which they believe their words and actions, can transform a round of golf. It is simply hilarious while being equally perturbing

In junior golf, it’s everywhere. Junior golf academies make a living selling parents that a hysterical coach and over-coaching are essential ingredients in your child’s success.

Let’s be clear, no one of any intellect has any real interest in golf — because it’s not that interesting. The people left, including most coaches and instructors, carve out a small fiefdom, usually on the corner of the range, where they use the illusion of competency to pray on people. In simple terms, they baffle people with the bullshit of pseudo-science that they can make you better, after just one more lesson.

The reality is that life is an impromptu game. The world of golf, business, and school have a message that the goal is being right. This, of course, is bad advice, being right in your own mind is easy, trying to push your ideas on others is hard. As a result, it is not surprising that the divorce rate among golf professionals and their instructors is 100 percent. The transfer rate among college players continues to soar, and too many courses have a guy peddling nefarious science to good people. In fact, we do at my course!

The question is, what impact does all this have on college-age and younger kids? At this point, we honestly don’t know. However, I am going to go out on a limb and say it isn’t good.

Soren Kierkegaard once quipped “I saw it for what it is, and I laughed.” The actions of most coaches and instructors in America are laughable. The problem is that I am not laughing because they are doing damage to kids, as well as driving good people away from this game.

The fact is that golfers don’t need more tips, secrets, or lessons. They need to be presented with a better understanding of the key elements of golf. With this understanding, they can then start to frame which information makes sense and what doesn’t. This will emancipate them and allow them to take charge of their own development.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Valspar Championship betting preview: Elite ballstrikers to thrive at Copperhead

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The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2024 Valspar Championship.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermudagrass greens overseeded with POA. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 16, 17 and 18 — also known as the “Snake Pit” — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.

The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. The field this week is solid and is a major improvement over last year’s field that felt the impact of players skipping due to a handful of “signature events” in a short span of time. 

Past Winners at Valspar Championship

  • 2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
  • 2022: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
  • 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
  • 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
  • 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
  • 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Copperhead

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can’t be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)

  1. Tony Finau (+.90)
  2. Nick Taylor (+.81)
  3. Justin Thomas (+.77)
  4. Greyson Sigg (+.69)
  5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+.67)

2. Good Drive %

The long hitters can be a bit limited here due to the tree-lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important, but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.

Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+91.3%) 
  2. Zach Johnson (+91.1%)
  3. Sam Ryder (+90.5%)
  4. Ryan Moore (+90.4%)
  5. Aaron Rai (+89.7%)

3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1.32)
  2. Keith Mitchell (+1.29)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.24)
  4. Cameron Young (+1.17) 
  5. Doug Ghim (+.95)

4. Bogey Avoidance

With the conditions likely to be difficult, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, oftentimes the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.

Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.

Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+9.0)
  2. Xander Schauffele (+9.3)
  3. Austin Cook (+9.7) 
  4. Chesson Hadley (+10.0)
  5. Greyson Sigg (+10.2)

5. Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions

Conditions will be tough this week at Copperhead. I am looking for golfers who can rise to the occasion if the course plays as difficult as it has in the past.

Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1,71) 
  2. Min Woo Lee (+1.39)
  3. Cameron Young (+1.27)
  4. Jordan Spieth (+1.08)
  5. Justin Suh (+.94)

6. Course History

That statistic will tell us which players have played well at Copperhead in the past.

Course History Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+3.75) 
  2. Sam Burns (+2.49)
  3. Davis Riley (+2.33)
  4. Matt NeSmith (+2.22)
  5. Jordan Spieth (+2.04)

The Valspar Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Good Drive % (15%), SG: BS (20%), Bogeys Avoided (13%), Course History (13%) Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions (12%).

  1. Xander Schauffele
  2. Doug Ghim
  3. Victor Perez
  4. Greyson Sigg
  5. Ryan Moore
  6. Tony Finau
  7. Justin Thomas
  8. Sam Ryder
  9. Sam Burns
  10. Lucas Glover

2024 Valspar Championship Picks

Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)

Justin Thomas will be disappointed with his finish at last week’s PLAYERS Championship, as the past champion missed the cut despite being in some decent form heading into the event. Despite the missed cut, JT hit the ball really well. In his two rounds, the two-time major champion led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach per round.

Thomas has been up and down this season. He’s missed the cut in two “signature events” but also has finishes of T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T6 at the Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am and T3 at the American Express. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in the field.

Thomas loves Copperhead. In his last three tries at the course, he’s finished T13, T3 and T10. Thomas would have loved to get a win at a big event early in the season, but avoidable mistakes and a balky putter have cost him dearly. I believe a trip to a course he loves in a field he should be able to capitalize on is the right recipe for JT to right the ship.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (FanDuel)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is playing spectacular golf in the 2024 season. He finished 2nd at the American Express, T20 at Pebble Beach and T24 at the Genesis Invitational before finishing T13 at last week’s PLAYERS Championship.

In his past 24 rounds, the South African ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 26th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. Bezuidenhout managed to work his way around TPC Sawgrass last week with minimal damage. He only made five bogeys in the entire week, which is a great sign heading into a difficult Copperhead this week.

Bezuidenhout is winless in his PGA Tour career, but certainly has the talent to win on Tour. His recent iron play tells me that this week could be a breakthrough for the 35-year-old who has eyes on the President’s Cup.

Doug Ghim +8000 (FanDuel)

Doug Ghim has finished in the top-16 of his past five starts. Most recently, Ghim finished T16 at The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field.

In his past 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 5th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. In terms of his fit for Copperhead, the 27-year-old ranks 12th in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions, making him a great fit for the course.

Ghim has yet to win on Tour, but at one point he was the top ranked Amateur golfer in the world and played in the 2017 Arnold Palmer Cup and 2017 Walker Cup. He then won the Ben Hogan award for the best male college golfer in 2018. He certainly has the talent, and there are signals aplenty that his talent in ready to take him to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour.

Sepp Straka +8000 (BetRivers)

Sepp Straka is a player who’s shown he has the type of game that can translate to a difficult Florida golf course. The former Presidents Cup participant won the 2022 Honda Classic in tough conditions and should thrive with a similar test at Copperhead.

It’s been a slow 2024 for Straka, but his performance last week at the PLAYERS Championship surely provides some optimism. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach as well as 1.88 strokes off the tee. The tee-to-green game Straka showed on a course with plenty of danger demonstrates that he can stay in control of his golf ball this week.

It’s possible that the strong performance last week was an outlier, but I’m willing to bet on a proven winner in a weaker field at a great number.

Victor Perez +12000 (FanDuel)

Victor Perez is no stranger to success in professional golf. The Frenchman has three DP World Tour wins including a Rolex Series event. He won the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, as well as the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which are some big events.

Perez earned his PGA Tour card this season and enters the week playing some fantastic golf. He finished in a tie for 16th in Florida at the Cognizant Classic and then tied for third in his most recent start at the Puerto Rico Open.

In his past 24 rounds in the field, Perez ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 1oth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Good Drive % and 15th in Bogey Avoidance.

Perez comes in as a perfect fit for Copperhead and offers serious value at triple-digit odds.

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