Connect with us

News

Redkacheek’s DFS Rundown: 2018 CJ Cup

Published

on

Wow, what a crazy start to this season! Not only has the cheat sheet and slack chat plays over at the Fantasy Golf Bag been on complete fire, but the new golf betting model has now hit on two outrights and one FRL in back-to-back weeks! We get a much better field this week so definitely plan to keep this heater going here at the CJ Cup this week. Brooks Koepka will be teeing it up for the first time since being named the 2018 POY, along with guys such as Justin Thomas, Jason Day, Paul Casey, Billy Horschel, and our new favorite Sungjae Im. As you can see, this will be a fairly exciting event for a setup as similar as last week’s tournament.

Let’s go ahead and take a look at this course and see if we can pinpoint some key stats to take us to another Big GPP win or at least a couple good choices for an outright win.

The CJ Cup will be played at the Club at Nine Bridges, a 7,196 yard par-72 golf course in South Korea. Although this may appear like a similar course to TPC Kuala Lumpur last week, this one will play quite significantly tougher. As you can see below, in 2017 there were more bogeys than birdies for the week which doesn’t happen much outside of majors. Justin Thomas won last year’s event after shooting 63 in the first round but failed to break 70 the following three days. JT finished at nine under, which tied Marc Leishman, who coincidentally won this last weekend (2019 Fall Swing narrative). So why so tough if it appears so short? Let’s take a look.

So first off, let’s get this out of the way first. These greens are brutal. No joke; these greens were the single most difficult greens to putt on all of last year. Everything from one-putt percentage to 3-putt avoidance, these ranked the No. 1 most difficult on Tour all year. But here’s the problem: We all know putting is the single most variable stat, so using SG:P will tend to lead to a very disappointing pool of players. For example, coming into last year the players ranked Top 10 in SG:P finished 11-33-47-40-28-64-36-26-71-36, respectively. There is a still a stat that helped fine-tune player pools last year that I will recommend this year: my first key stat to consider this week is 3-putt avoidance.

The next section here I will just briefly touch on the driving accuracy and GIR percentage for this course. It is very average for the PGA Tour…that is really all you need to know. Driving accuracy ranked 48th and GIR percentage ranked 38th in 2017. This course is not difficult tee-to-green, plain and simple. I will certainly add the usual SG:T2G this week along with GIR percentage, but this course will favor most guys this week.

So besides putting, why are these scores so poor considering the appearance of an easy course? Well besides putting on these greens, scrambling here is brutal. Scrambling also ranked No. 1 most difficult here last year but again, this is a stat that is extremely tough to see useful trends. I will, however, encourage you to use SG:ARG to help narrow down your player pool more efficiently.

Remember that this segment of the Fall Swing will not yield strokes-gained data, so we must only utilize the traditional stats the PGA Tour keeps. On top of all the micro-scoring stats mentioned above, let’s take a closer look at this course from a macro level. This will be fairly straightforward when building your model. The par 4s here are extremely difficult, so add SG:P4 Scoring to your research (par 3 scoring is also very difficult but sample sizes are usually too small to include each week). Par 5 scoring was difficult as well but there is a better stat we can use than the P4 scoring mentioned above. The final stat we will be using is simply bogey avoidance. This will do a fantastic job of incorporating T2G, scrambling and putting into our model/research.

Overall this course is really an amazing layout but will pose a difficult task for the players. Just like last week, I encourage you to ease into the season by playing light and also primarily playing GPPs.

With all that out of the way, let’s get into my core plays for this week…

Justin Thomas (DK $11,600)

Justin Thomas finally makes the core writeup. After a mediocre finish last week (5th place), he comes to Nine Bridges as the defending champion. Ironically, he beat out Marc Leishman, last week’s winner, in a playoff last year and I think he is going to be the guy to pay up for over $10k. JT won both CIMB Classic and The CJ Cup last year, and I would be very surprised if he doesn’t leave this leg of the Fall Swing (Asia) without a win. There’s a lot going for him outside of his recent form and course history (if that wasn’t enough), he ranks first in both SG:T2G and SG:APP, second in par 4 scoring, eighth in bogey avoidance and finally, surprisingly, 11th in 3-putt avoidance. If you are building only a few lineups this week, I think JT should be in around two-thirds of them.

Byeong-Hun An (DK $8,700)

Mr. Ben An makes the list again! Byeong-Hun An received a lot of praise from both Jacob and myself on the FGB Podcast last week and he did not disappoint with a 13th place finish, and really a strong chance to win going into the weekend. As part of a common theme you will see here, Ben An is the kind of consistent ball-striker to rely on each and every week. On the PGA Tour in the last 50 rounds, he ranks third along with a strong ranking in bogey avoidance (third) and GIR percentage (also third). He did play this event last year, finishing 11th at 4-under par, and if it weren’t for a final round 73 he had a realistic chance for the win! The price on Ben An is getting a little steep but I think we can still get some value out of it this week.

Kyle Stanley (DK $8,200)

Kyle Stanley should be considered a core play almost every week he is under $9K on DraftKings. One of the most elite ball strikers on Tour, ranking ninth in SG:T2G, 11th in SG:APP, sixth in GIR percentage and 14th in par 4 scoring, he sets up for another solid top 20. Last week Kyle finished 13th in Kuala Lumpur and now comes to Nine Bridges where he ended the tournament in 19th place last year. Kyle tends to be very “mediocre” so upside for a top 3 always seems to come sparingly during the season, but you still cannot ignore his skills at this price.

Charles Howell III (DK $7,700)

Charles Howell III is a lock for me this week. Coming off a strong showing last week (T5) but also an 11th-place finish at this event last year, he grades out as one of the strongest values this week at only $7,700. CH3 hadn’t played on the PGA Tour for over a month before appearing at Kuala Lumpur, causing him to fly well under the radar on his way to a solid top five finish. Always known as a superb ball-striker, Howell actually rates out 16th in bogey avoidance and 10th in 3-putt avoidance, both key stats for this golf course. Additionally, CH3 ranks inside the top 20 of both par 4 scoring and GIR percentage. In a no-cut event on a difficult ARG golf course, count on CH3 to gain enough placement points to pay off this solid price tag.

Ian Poulter (DK $7,600)

Ian Poulter may be extremely sneaky this week. We haven’t seen him since the Ryder Cup and most people that play DFS have severe recency bias. Poulter is a grinder, and considering the winning score should only be around 12-under par with lots of opportunities for bogeys, he should keep the wheels on all four days and have a chance on Sunday. One of the most surprising stats for me in my research on Poulter is that he ranks first in 3-putt avoidance, along with some impressive tee-to-green stats where he ranks inside the top 25 of all of my key stats mentioned above. Why is the 3-putt avoidance stat so important? As I noted in the course preview, these were the single most difficult greens to putt on last year with the worst 3-putt percentage. Outside of the key stats, it does seem like this course fits his eye as he finished 15th here last year. Ian Poulter will be another core play but I think he may come in quite under owned from where he probably should.

Joel Dahmen (DK $6,900)

Chalk Dahmen week is upon us and I am going to bite. Dahmen has been a DFS darling this year and last week was no different. Dahmen ended up finishing 26th which was largely due to a poor final round 71, which dropped him 11 spots. Even with that poor finish he was able to pay off his sub-$7K price tag, which is where we find him again this week. Dahmen ranks top 10 in this field in several key stats, including: SG:T2G, SG:APP, and bogey avoidance. If you need some salary savings but unsure about anyone under $7K, Dahmen should be your first look this week.

Also consider

Brooks Koepka
Jason Day
Marc Leishman
Paul Casey
Ryan Moore
Sungjae Im
Kevin Tway

Good luck this week everyone!

Your Reaction?
  • 0
  • LEGIT1
  • WOW0
  • LOL0
  • IDHT0
  • FLOP0
  • OB0
  • SHANK0

I am ranked in the Top 35 of all DFS Golf players and best known for winning the DraftKings Millionaire Maker contest during the week of The Masters earlier this year. I am very active around the community, always willing to help whether with strategy or research and you can find me on Twitter @Redkacheek and also each week on the Fantasy Golf Bag Podcast. One last note, my history is in professional golf, which definitely adds a unique perspective to DFS that most people do not have and you will find really gives you an edge when evaluating players each week.

Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

News

Morning 9: Wyndham Clark on back injury | DiMarco’s bold Champions Tour take | Houston Open photos

Published

on

By Ben Alberstadt with Gianni Magliocco.

For comments: [email protected]

Good Thursday morning, golf fans, as day one of the Houston Open gets underway.

1. Wyndham Clark hurts back…still hopes to play

ESPN’s Mark Schlabach…”Reigning U.S. Open winner Wyndham Clark injured his back while working out at home Monday, but he hopes to play in this week’s Texas Children’s Houston Open, which starts Thursday at Memorial Park Golf Course.”

  • “Clark, the fourth-ranked golfer in the world, said he was lifting weights and “got caught in an awkward spot doing a lift and [his] back went.”
  • “It’s not something that happens regularly, but it happened and you live and you learn,” Clark said. “I’m trending in the right direction. I’m hitting it or feeling stronger and more mobile every day. I’m going to give it my best effort tomorrow and hopefully I can play and compete. If not, I’ve got to get ready for tournaments to come after this.”
Full piece.

2. DiMarco’s bold Champions Tour take

Our Matt Vincenzi…”While speaking on the Subpar podcast, former PGA Tour winner and current PGA Tour Champions player Chris DiMarco said he hopes LIV buys the Champions Tour.”

  • “We’re kind of hoping that LIV buys the Champions Tour,” he said.
  • “Let’s play for a little real money out here. I mean this is kind of a joke when we’re getting $2 million. There were like seven guys last week from TPC (Sawgrass, at the $25 million PLAYERS Championship) that made more money than our purses.”
Full piece.

3. Charley Hull’s course management problem?

Our Matt Vincenzi…”Charley Hull came just short of her third LPGA Tour victory over the weekend at the Fir Hills Seri Pak Championship when she played her last two holes at 3 over to slip all the way to 10th on the leaderboard.”

  • “After the round, Hull was blasted by Sky Sports commentator and former LPGA Tour player Trish Johnson for her lack of golf course management.”
  • “While speaking on the Sky Sports Golf podcast, Johnson spoke harshly of Hull.”
  • “I’m probably her harshest critic, because I know how good she is. She doesn’t win anywhere near enough for her talent, and she doesn’t get involved enough, in all honestly.
  • “The thing with Charley is that you’re never going to change her. I read something the other day that said how much she loves the game and it’s her love of the game [that costs her]. She’s never going to change and she’s just going to go for every pin.
  • “In theory that’s great, but it won’t win you golf tournaments, it just won’t because she’s not that much better than anybody else.
Full piece.

4. Sahith’s interesting idea

Golf Channel’s Brentley Romine…”Which brings Theegala to his big idea: “There’s got to be something, like a fan challenge or – I think it would be awesome to see a scratch handicap go out and play like the Monday after a tournament, keep the same conditions and see what they would shoot just to put it into perspective how hard a PGA Tour golf course is.”

  • “Theegala loves the thought so much that he’d even come out and watch.”
  • “Shoot, I’d commentate on it,” Theegala added before continuing, “I have a pet peeve, sometimes when I watch golf on TV, a great example is hole 8 at Valspar last week. It’s a 230-yard par 3, the green’s 12 yards wide and someone will hit the middle of the green and, you know, they’ll be like, ‘Oh, really smart shot there.’ I’m like, ‘Well, no, he’s absolutely laced this 4-iron in the middle of the green, that’s right where he’s looking and to hit a 4-iron that straight is really, really hard.’ … Even like chipping, a lot of the stuff just looks flat on TV, but then when you get over the chip, like, oh, great, I have to land it over a mound on a downslope down grain?”
Full piece.

5. Top am Rachel Heck not going pro

Golf Channel’s Brentley Romine…”As Rachel Heck nears the end of her college golf career, she has decided that the LPGA isn’t for her.’

  • “Heck, the 22-year-old Stanford senior who won an NCAA individual title as a freshman and has climbed as high as second in the world amateur rankings, penned a first-person essay for No Laying Up in which she explained her reasoning for remaining amateur after graduation this summer and starting an internship not in professional golf but rather private equity. Heck, a political science major, also will be pinned as a lieutenant in the U.S. Air Force.”

Read her piece on No Laying Up: https://nolayingup.com/blog/why-im-remaining-an-amateur

Full piece.

6. DJ’s new LIV signing

Golf Monthly’s Elliott Heath…”Dustin Johnson‘s LIV Golf team 4Aces GC has announced former TravisMathew CEO Chris Rosaasen as the side’s new General Manager.”

  • “Rosaasen, who is a long-time friend of Johnson, is also the founder of the team’s apparel sponsor Extracurricular and has been CEO of the Omniverse Group for the past four years.
  • “He joins with more than 20 years of “brand-building, marketing, and business leadership” according to LIV Golf, which says his “record of innovation in the golf industry will strengthen and accelerate the growth of the 4Aces GC brand.”
Full piece.

7. Photos from the Houston Open

  • Check out all of our photos from this week’s event!
Full piece.
Your Reaction?
  • 0
  • LEGIT1
  • WOW0
  • LOL0
  • IDHT0
  • FLOP0
  • OB0
  • SHANK0

Continue Reading

News

Four books for a springtime review

Published

on

One thing that never changes over time: snowy evenings give purpose to reading (is it the other way around?) It has been a snowy 2024 in western New York, and I’ve had ample time to tuck into an easy chair with a blanket, coffee, and a book. You’re in luck, because despite the title of this piece, I’ll share five books and their worth with you.

There is great breadth of subject matter from one to five. Golf is as complicated as life, which means that the cover of the book isn’t worth judging. The contents begin the tale, but there is so much more to each topic presented within. If you’re like me, your library grows each year. Despite the value of the virtual, the paper-printed word connects us to the past of golf and humanity. Here’s hoping that you’ll add one or more of these titles to your collection.

        

Rainmaker

Hughes Norton interviewed with Mark McCormack for 20 minutes (30 if you count the missed exit at Logan International) while driving the founder of IMG from Harvard to the airport. The lesson of taking advantage of each moment, of every dollar, because you might not get another opportunity, is the most valuable one that life offers. I say to you, be certain to read this book, because another opportunity to bend the ear of Hughes Norton may not come our way.

Hughes Norton was with Tiger Woods for waaayyy fewer years than you might guess, but they were the critical ones. Be warned: not all of the revelations in this tome are for the faint of heart. Some, in fact, will break your heart. Golf was a sleepy hamlet in the 1990s, until the 16-lane interstate called Eldrick “Tiger” Woods came into town. Everything changed, which meant that everything would change again and again, into eternity. Once the ball starts rolling, it’s impossible to stop.

My favorite aspect of this book is its candor. Hughes Norton is well into his time on Planet Earth. He has no reason to hold back, and he doesn’t. My least favorite aspect is that George Peper got the call to co-author the book (and I didn’t.) Seriously, there is no LFA for me, so this is the best that I could do.

Decision: Buy It!

The Golf Courses of Seth Raynor

Michael Wolf, James Sitar, and Jon Cavalier, in abject partnership, collaborated to produce a handsome volume on the work of gone-too-soon, engineer-turned-golf course architect. Seth Raynor was pulled into the game by Charles Blair MacDonald, the crusty godfather of American golf. Raynor played little golf across the 51 years of his life. His reason? He did not wish to corrupt his designs with the demands and failings of his own game.

Jon Cavalier began his photography career as a contributor to the Golf Club Atlas discussion group. I met him there in a virtual way (we still have yet to shake hands) and have exchanged numerous emails over the years. Despite the demands of his day job, Cavalier has blossomed into the most traveled and prolific course photographer alive today. His photography, both hand-held and drone, makes the pages pop. Michael Wolf invited me and two friends to play his home course, despite having never met any of us in person. His words, melded to those of James Sitar, are the glue that connect Cavalier’s photos.

My favorite aspect of the books is the access it gives to the private-club world of Raynor. Fewer than five of his courses are resort or public access, and knowing people on the inside is not available to all. My suggestion? Write a letter/email and see if a club will let you play. Can’t hurt to try! My one complaint about the book is its horizontal nature. Golf is wide, but I like a little vertical in my photos. It’s not much of a complaint, given the glorious contents within the covers.

Decision: Buy It!!

Big Green Book from The Golfer’s Journal

Beginning with its (over)size, and continuing through the entire contents, there is no descriptor that defines the genre of the Big Green Book. It is photography, essay, layout, poetry, graphics, and stream of consciousness. It harnesses the creative power of a lengthy masthead of today’s finest golf contributors. Quotes from Harvey Penick, verse from Billy Collins, and prose from John Updike partner with images pure and altered, to immerse you in the diverse golf spaces that define this planet.

One of my favorite aspects is the spaces between the words and photos. Have your friends and others write a few notes to you in those blank areas, to personalize your volume even more. One aspect that needs improvement: the lack of female voices. I suspect that will be remedied in future volumes.

Decision: Buy It!!!

Troublemaker and The Unplayable Lie

Books that allege discrimination and mistreatment check two boxes: potentially-salacious reads and debate over whose perspective is accurate. In the end, the presentation of salacious revelation rarely meets the expectation, and the debate over fault is seldom resolved. Lisa Cornwell spent years as a competitive junior and college golfer, before joining The Golf Channel as a reporter and program host.

Despite the dream assignments, there were clouds that covered the sun. Cornwell documents episodes of favoritism and descrimination against her, prior to her departure from The Golf Channel in 2021. Her work echoes the production of the late Marcia Chambers, who wrote for Golf Digest in the 1980s and 1990s. Chambers took issue with many of the potential and real legal issues surrounding golf and its policies of access/no access. Her research culminated in The Unplayable Lie, the first work of its kind to address issues confronted by all genders and ethnicities, and immediately predated the professional debut of Tiger Woods in 1997.

My favorite aspects of the two works, are the courage and conviction that it took to write them, and believe in them. My least favorite aspects are the consistent bias that many groups continue to face. Without awareness, there is no action. Without action, there is no change.

Decision: Buy Them!!!!

Your Reaction?
  • 4
  • LEGIT1
  • WOW0
  • LOL1
  • IDHT1
  • FLOP0
  • OB0
  • SHANK2

Continue Reading

Tour Photo Galleries

Photos from the 2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open

Published

on

GolfWRX is on site in the Lone Star State this week for the Texas Children’s Houston Open.

General galleries from the putting green and range, WITBs — including Thorbjorn Olesen and Zac Blair — and several pull-out albums await.

As always, we’ll continue to update as more photos flow in. Check out links to all our photos from Houston below.

General Albums

WITB Albums

Pullout Albums

See what GolfWRXers are saying in the forums.

Your Reaction?
  • 17
  • LEGIT2
  • WOW0
  • LOL4
  • IDHT0
  • FLOP1
  • OB0
  • SHANK0

Continue Reading

WITB

Facebook

Trending