Connect with us

Opinion & Analysis

Redkacheek’s DFS Rundown: 2019 CIMB Classic

Published

on

The CIMB Classic is the first of three events that will take place in Asia, and what that means for us in our DFS and golf betting research is that we have no ShotLink data to go off of. So, it is back to the basics of evaluating the scorecard, yardage, and the traditional accuracy/distance stats: GIR, driving accuracy, and driving distance.

I personally like this type of event because many people will be looking for hard-coded answers to who to play and it will be a huge advantage to understand what kind of traditional stats to look for and how that can be translated from prior events (advanced stats), including last week’s Safeway Open.

This event will be a limited field, about 78 players, with no cut. This may be surprising, but for most PGA Tour pros, traveling to Malaysia is a bit of an expensive endeavor to not be guaranteed a check. I am not sure I totally agree with that since it is already a limited field, but we will deal with what cards we are dealt. In other words, this is another tournament you should try to play light and preferably try to limit your exposure to cash games. Depending on the prize pools that are offered, I will probably do some of the MME GPPs, perhaps mixed with some single-entry or 3-max tournaments.

The CIMB Classic will take place at TPC Kuala Lumpur in Malaysia. Interestingly enough, Kuala Lumpur translates to “Muddy Confluence,” as it receives about 100 in. of rainfall annually. This course is easy. This course is easy. No, that is not a typing error, this course is so easy it deserved to be pointed out twice. Why so easy? TPC Kuala Lumpur plays just over 7,000 yards at a par of 72. As shown below, it averaged 1.33 shots under par for 2018 (also -1.7 in 2017) and only 18 players finished the tournament at even par or worse last year.

Pat Perez won last year’s event, finishing at 24 under with 27 birdies and only three bogeys. Justin Thomas won in 2017 at 23 under with 29 birdies. First off, these are two drastically different types of players but both with success here. To further elaborate, this course gave up an average of 4.16 birdies per round, which ranked 45th most difficult out of 51 events last year. This is where we will find the first stats to target this week: birdies-or-better gained or DK points, or perhaps both.

This course has a good balance of short and long par 4s but the one type of hole that stands out to me is the par 5s. The par 5s played 1.5 shots under par each day and that is huge considering the average birdies each round was 4.16. So guys that take advantage of the par 5s will be gaining one to two shots per day on the field. Pat Perez birdied the par 5s nine times (16 attempts) last year and Justin Thomas birdied eight in 2017’s event. Suffice it to say, par-5 scoring will also be a key this week.

What else is there to this course? Well there isn’t a whole lot, to be honest. I think looking at recent form is going to be huge and even eyeing results from the two previous years has shown valuable but TPC Kuala Lumpur is a scorer’s delight and no one stat will lead us to the promised land. Driving distance has not shown to be corollary, so that won’t be beneficial, but I think overall ball striking and looking for strong strokes gained numbers in the past month will be the key to building strong lineups.

With all that out of the way, let’s get into my core plays for this week.

Paul Casey (DK $10,200)

So there is a guy up top named Justin Thomas…I think he is a phenomenal play (he has won here twice and finished 17th last year) but in my limited lineups this week, he will not make the cut. Paul Casey will be the man I will ride with as my most expensive player this week. His best finish at this event came last year where he finished seventh, and with his strong finish during the FedEx Cup Playoffs, I am putting a good bit of faith in Paul Casey’s ball striking skills to continue his strong play. To cap off his 2018 season, Paul gained 5.3 shots T2G at the Dell Championship and then 3.3 SG:T2G at the Tour Championship. This should be a great setup for PC this week.

Rafa Caberera Bello (DK $9,200)

This limited field has kind of led me to a slightly more ownership-focused build. I think in the $9k range, most people will look to Keegan Bradley or Gary Woodland. While I do not think those are bad plays, I think Rafa adds some nice upside with quite a lot of consistency. Rafa finished 10th here the last two years and has the game to really excel on this course again. In the last 24 rounds Rafa has played, he ranks ninth in birdies-or-better and 13th in GIR percentage. We haven’t seen much of Rafa in the past month but he is a world-class player and should pop right back into form this week.

C.T. Pan (DK $8,000)

C.T. Pan will be someone I will look to have in all of my lineups this week. Again, this is a limited field event with no cut and it will be very important to make stands, whether 100 percent locks or complete fades, and C.T. is someone that fits this course quite well. He ranks top 13 in most of my key stats for TPC Kuala Lumpur including SG:T2G, SG:APP, DA percentage, GIR percentage and SG:Total over the past three months. This course is just over 7,000 yards so even with the large amount of rain expected to dump in Malaysia this week, I think he can certainly manage this course with his shorter length.

Sam Ryder (DK $7,700)

Kind of like C.T. Pan above, Sam ranks out so well this week in my key stats and also with his strong showing last week in Napa, California, that I just cannot overlook him here in this field. Sam is my second overall ranked player this week in key stats rating top five in all by driving accuracy, which was pretty forgiving last year. I think some people may have differing views but I see Sam continuing his strong play even with a very, very long flight from California to Malaysia. At $7,700, I think Sam has a really superb chance of paying off his price and even contending for the win again this week.

Andrew Putnam (DK $6,900)

People may have forgotten about Andrew Putnam but this kid is so solid. He finished the year with six-straight made cuts including a 16th, first, and an eighth. He has never played this course/event but looking at the course setup, I can see Andrew having a really good week. Since April this year, Andrew lost strokes T2G only fou times. Overall, I think he has a ton of appeal on this course this week but at $6,900 and overlooked (sub five percent) he may be another one I lock in at 100 percent.

Also consider

Justin Thomas
Ryan Moore
Keegan Bradley
Gary Woodland
Louis Oosthuizen
Kevin Na
Kevin Tway
Austin Cook
Anirban Lahiri

Good luck this week everyone!

Your Reaction?
  • 4
  • LEGIT0
  • WOW0
  • LOL0
  • IDHT0
  • FLOP1
  • OB0
  • SHANK1

I am ranked in the Top 35 of all DFS Golf players and best known for winning the DraftKings Millionaire Maker contest during the week of The Masters earlier this year. I am very active around the community, always willing to help whether with strategy or research and you can find me on Twitter @Redkacheek and also each week on the Fantasy Golf Bag Podcast. One last note, my history is in professional golf, which definitely adds a unique perspective to DFS that most people do not have and you will find really gives you an edge when evaluating players each week.

Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans betting preview

Published

on

The PGA TOUR heads to New Orleans to play the 2023 Zurich Classic of New Orleans. In a welcome change from the usual stroke play, the Zurich Classic is a team event. On Thursday and Saturday, the teams play best ball, and on Friday and Sunday the teams play alternate shot.

TPC Louisiana is a par 72 that measures 7,425 yards. The course features some short par 4s and plenty of water and bunkers, which makes for a lot of exciting risk/reward scenarios for competitors. Pete Dye designed the course in 2004 specifically for the Zurich Classic, although the event didn’t make its debut until 2007 because of Hurricane Katrina.

Coming off of the Masters and a signature event in consecutive weeks, the field this week is a step down, and understandably so. Many of the world’s top players will be using this time to rest after a busy stretch.

However, there are some interesting teams this season with some stars making surprise appearances in the team event. Some notable teams include Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry, Collin Morikawa and Kurt Kitayama, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala as well as a few Canadian teams, Nick Taylor and Adam Hadwin and Taylor Pendrith and Corey Conners.

Past Winners at TPC Louisiana

  • 2023: Riley/Hardy (-30)
  • 2022: Cantlay/Schauffele (-29)
  • 2021: Leishman/Smith (-20)
  • 2019: Palmer/Rahm (-26)
  • 2018: Horschel/Piercy (-22)
  • 2017: Blixt/Smith (-27)

2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans Picks

Tom Hoge/Maverick McNealy +2500 (DraftKings)

Tom Hoge is coming off of a solid T18 finish at the RBC Heritage and finished T13 at last year’s Zurich Classic alongside Harris English.

This season, Hoge is having one of his best years on Tour in terms of Strokes Gained: Approach. In his last 24 rounds, the only player to top him on the category is Scottie Scheffler. Hoge has been solid on Pete Dye designs, ranking 28th in the field over his past 36 rounds.

McNealy is also having a solid season. He’s finished T6 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and T9 at the PLAYERS Championship. He recently started working with world renowned swing coach, Butch Harmon, and its seemingly paid dividends in 2024.

Keith Mitchell/Joel Dahmen +4000 (DraftKings)

Keith Mitchell is having a fantastic season, finishing in the top-20 of five of his past seven starts on Tour. Most recently, Mitchell finished T14 at the Valero Texas Open and gained a whopping 6.0 strokes off the tee. He finished 6th at last year’s Zurich Classic.

Joel Dahmen is having a resurgent year and has been dialed in with his irons. He also has a T11 finish at the PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass which is another Pete Dye track. With Mitchell’s length and Dahmen’s ability to put it close with his short irons, the Mitchell/Dahmen combination will be dangerous this week.

Taylor Moore/Matt NeSmith +6500 (DraftKings)

Taylor Moore has quickly developed into one of the more consistent players on Tour. He’s finished in the top-20 in three of his past four starts, including a very impressive showing at The Masters, finishing T20. He’s also finished T4 at this event in consecutive seasons alongside Matt NeSmith.

NeSmith isn’t having a great 2024, but has seemed to elevate his game in this format. He finished T26 at Pete Dye’s TPC Sawgrass, which gives the 30-year-old something to build off of. NeSmith is also a great putter on Bermudagrass, which could help elevate Moore’s ball striking prowess.

Your Reaction?
  • 6
  • LEGIT3
  • WOW1
  • LOL0
  • IDHT0
  • FLOP3
  • OB1
  • SHANK1

Continue Reading

19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 LIV Adelaide betting preview: Cam Smith ready for big week down under

Published

on

After having four of the top twelve players on the leaderboard at The Masters, LIV Golf is set for their fifth event of the season: LIV Adelaide. 

For both LIV fans and golf fans in Australia, LIV Adelaide is one of the most anticipated events of the year. With 35,000 people expected to attend each day of the tournament, the Grange Golf Club will be crawling with fans who are passionate about the sport of golf. The 12th hole, better known as “the watering hole”, is sure to have the rowdiest of the fans cheering after a long day of drinking some Leishman Lager.  

The Grange Golf Club is a par-72 that measures 6,946 yards. The course features minimal resistance, as golfers went extremely low last season. In 2023, Talor Gooch shot consecutive rounds of 62 on Thursday and Friday, giving himself a gigantic cushion heading into championship Sunday. Things got tight for a while, but in the end, the Oklahoma State product was able to hold off The Crushers’ Anirban Lahiri for a three-shot victory. 

The Four Aces won the team competition with the Range Goats finishing second. 

*All Images Courtesy of LIV Golf*

Past Winners at LIV Adelaide

  • 2023: Talor Gooch (-19)

Stat Leaders Through LIV Miami

Green in Regulation

  1. Richard Bland
  2. Jon Rahm
  3. Paul Casey

Fairways Hit

  1. Abraham Ancer
  2. Graeme McDowell
  3. Henrik Stenson

Driving Distance

  1. Bryson DeChambeau
  2. Joaquin Niemann
  3. Dean Burmester

Putting

  1. Cameron Smith
  2. Louis Oosthuizen
  3. Matt Jones

2024 LIV Adelaide Picks

Cameron Smith +1400 (DraftKings)

When I pulled up the odds for LIV Adelaide, I was more than a little surprised to see multiple golfers listed ahead of Cameron Smith on the betting board. A few starts ago, Cam finished runner-up at LIV Hong Kong, which is a golf course that absolutely suits his eye. Augusta National in another course that Smith could roll out of bed and finish in the top-ten at, and he did so two weeks ago at The Masters, finishing T6.

At Augusta, he gained strokes on the field on approach, off the tee (slightly), and of course, around the green and putting. Smith able to get in the mix at a major championship despite coming into the week feeling under the weather tells me that his game is once again rounding into form.

The Grange Golf Club is another course that undoubtedly suits the Australian. Smith is obviously incredibly comfortable playing in front of the Aussie faithful and has won three Australian PGA Championship’s. The course is very short and will allow Smith to play conservative off the tee, mitigating his most glaring weakness. With birdies available all over the golf course, there’s a chance the event turns into a putting contest, and there’s no one on the planet I’d rather have in one of those than Cam Smith.

Louis Oosthuizen +2200 (DraftKings)

Louis Oosthuizen has simply been one of the best players on LIV in the 2024 seas0n. The South African has finished in the top-10 on the LIV leaderboard in three of his five starts, with his best coming in Jeddah, where he finished T2. Perhaps more impressively, Oosthuizen finished T7 at LIV Miami, which took place at Doral’s “Blue Monster”, an absolutely massive golf course. Given that Louis is on the shorter side in terms of distance off the tee, his ability to play well in Miami shows how dialed he is with the irons this season.

In addition to the LIV finishes, Oosthuizen won back-to-back starts on the DP World Tour in December at the Alfred Dunhill Championship and the Mauritus Open. He also finished runner-up at the end of February in the International Series Oman. The 41-year-old has been one of the most consistent performers of 2024, regardless of tour.

For the season, Louis ranks 4th on LIV in birdies made, T9 in fairways hit and first in putting. He ranks 32nd in driving distance, but that won’t be an issue at this short course. Last season, he finished T11 at the event, but was in decent position going into the final round but fell back after shooting 70 while the rest of the field went low. This season, Oosthuizen comes into the event in peak form, and the course should be a perfect fit for his smooth swing and hot putter this week.

Your Reaction?
  • 12
  • LEGIT3
  • WOW0
  • LOL1
  • IDHT0
  • FLOP1
  • OB1
  • SHANK1

Continue Reading

Opinion & Analysis

The Wedge Guy: What really makes a wedge work? Part 1

Published

on

Of all the clubs in our bags, wedges are almost always the simplest in construction and, therefore, the easiest to analyze what might make one work differently from another if you know what to look for.

Wedges are a lot less mysterious than drivers, of course, as the major brands are working with a lot of “pixie dust” inside these modern marvels. That’s carrying over more to irons now, with so many new models featuring internal multi-material technologies, and almost all of them having a “badge” or insert in the back to allow more complex graphics while hiding the actual distribution of mass.

But when it comes to wedges, most on the market today are still single pieces of molded steel, either cast or forged into that shape. So, if you look closely at where the mass is distributed, it’s pretty clear how that wedge is going to perform.

To start, because of their wider soles, the majority of the mass of almost any wedge is along the bottom third of the clubhead. So, the best wedge shots are always those hit between the 2nd and 5th grooves so that more mass is directly behind that impact. Elite tour professionals practice incessantly to learn to do that consistently, wearing out a spot about the size of a penny right there. If impact moves higher than that, the face is dramatically thinner, so smash factor is compromised significantly, which reduces the overall distance the ball will fly.

Every one of us, tour players included, knows that maddening shot that we feel a bit high on the face and it doesn’t go anywhere, it’s not your fault.

If your wedges show a wear pattern the size of a silver dollar, and centered above the 3rd or 4th groove, you are not getting anywhere near the same performance from shot to shot. Robot testing proves impact even two to three grooves higher in the face can cause distance loss of up to 35 to 55 feet with modern ‘tour design’ wedges.

In addition, as impact moves above the center of mass, the golf club principle of gear effect causes the ball to fly higher with less spin. Think of modern drivers for a minute. The “holy grail” of driving is high launch and low spin, and the driver engineers are pulling out all stops to get the mass as low in the clubhead as possible to optimize this combination.

Where is all the mass in your wedges? Low. So, disregarding the higher lofts, wedges “want” to launch the ball high with low spin – exactly the opposite of what good wedge play requires penetrating ball flight with high spin.

While almost all major brand wedges have begun putting a tiny bit more thickness in the top portion of the clubhead, conventional and modern ‘tour design’ wedges perform pretty much like they always have. Elite players learn to hit those crisp, spinny penetrating wedge shots by spending lots of practice time learning to consistently make contact low in the face.

So, what about grooves and face texture?

Grooves on any club can only do so much, and no one has any material advantage here. The USGA tightly defines what we manufacturers can do with grooves and face texture, and modern manufacturing techniques allow all of us to push those limits ever closer. And we all do. End of story.

Then there’s the topic of bounce and grinds, the most complex and confusing part of the wedge formula. Many top brands offer a complex array of sole configurations, all of them admittedly specialized to a particular kind of lie or turf conditions, and/or a particular divot pattern.

But if you don’t play the same turf all the time, and make the same size divot on every swing, how would you ever figure this out?

The only way is to take any wedge you are considering and play it a few rounds, hitting all the shots you face and observing the results. There’s simply no other way.

So, hopefully this will inspire a lively conversation in our comments section, and I’ll chime in to answer any questions you might have.

And next week, I’ll dive into the rest of the wedge formula. Yes, shafts, grips and specifications are essential, too.

Your Reaction?
  • 32
  • LEGIT7
  • WOW1
  • LOL1
  • IDHT2
  • FLOP3
  • OB1
  • SHANK3

Continue Reading

WITB

Facebook

Trending