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Should the long putter be completely banned?

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The anchoring of the long putter was banned completely on Jan. 1, 2016. You would think that would spell the end of the subject, yet here we are approaching the end of 2018, and the long putter is still a hot topic in the game of golf.

At the John Deere Classic earlier this year, David Hearn was called out by the rules officials because of concerns over how well he was putting, and whether or not he was anchoring the putter.

He spent some time having his putting stroke analyzed, and the officials deemed that he was in fact not anchoring the putter and was allowed to continue with the stroke.

With golf being a gentleman’s game, we are all compelled to believe that those professionals who still use the long putter, are in fact abiding by the rules and no longer anchor the putter. However, when you see some putting strokes, you can’t help but think the putter is resting against the golfer’s chest, and it does make you question whether or not the putters themselves should be banned completely.

It does raise the question whether or not certain professionals are able to simply hold the putter away from their chests when showing the rules officials, and then revert back to anchoring the putter when actually in play. Does the game need that sort of controversy?

If there is that much doubt and controversy surrounding the subject, why are the putters not banned themselves? It seems to be a hotly debated topic among tour professionals with many still supporting a ban of the long putter completely, and many others adamant that they should be still allowed in the game.

Keegan Bradley, Ernie Els, Webb Simpson, and Adam Scott, all major winners with the long putter have all seen their putting stats drop dramatically since the ban even though, as Webb Simpson pointed out in 2012, “If you look at the facts, last year there was no one in the top 20 of strokes gained category that anchored a putter”

Bernhard Langer’s continued use of the long putter has caused more discussion and debate than anyone else still choosing to use the club, with the former golf pro, Mark Allen calling Bernhard’s stroke “illegal.”

One argument for the continued use of the long putter when the ruling against the anchoring came in, was the fact that none of the top 20 players in the PGA Tour’s stats for the most reliable putting used a long putter, and that if they were that good, more golfers would be using them.

Putting is probably the most important part of the game of golf, and when you have to hold your nerve and swing every other club from your driver down to your wedge with both feel and control, surely those conditions should be the same when putting?

Whatever side of the fence you sit, if the USGA and R&A wanted to eradicate the issues surrounding the anchoring of the putter completely, and any advantage that it may or may not give a player, then surely the only decision would have been to ban the putters themselves? As it currently stands, the air of doubt surrounding the use of the long putter is going to be with us for some time yet.

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52 Comments

52 Comments

  1. Rod Clarke

    Oct 9, 2018 at 6:51 pm

    I understood the intent was for the R&A and USGA to get rid of the long putter from the game but the anchoring rule they introduced left a big loophole.
    Going back to the foundations and ethos of the game, players hand or hands were below the elbows when holding and executing a shot. Adopting that proviso for all clubs should send the long putters into retirement. Midsize length putters (like Kouchar and DeChambeau use) would still be used I guess. In fact, doesn’t DeChambeau anchor his putter against his arm? Now that’s another question.

  2. Radim Pavlicek

    Oct 9, 2018 at 2:19 am

    Your hands has to be below your waist and the putter has to be the shorstes club in the bag. Two simple rules and problem is solved.

    • Kelly Roberts

      Oct 9, 2018 at 10:15 am

      Who the heck is Mark Allen?

      • Pete

        Oct 10, 2018 at 10:18 pm

        Mark Allen? Aussie golf pro and a very entertaining radio host on Melbourne radio.

  3. ralph

    Oct 8, 2018 at 11:25 pm

    No…. just ban the tour pro golfers who use the long putter… 😛

  4. JP

    Oct 8, 2018 at 10:04 pm

    I bet if Tiger started using a long putter, the USGA would completely allow it, and allow it to be used in any style Tiger wanted to use it. He could sell a ton of them and the USGA and manufacturers would get into bed together faster than you could blink.

  5. paul schofield

    Oct 8, 2018 at 6:56 pm

    Never mind banning the long putter. It’s a bad rule just reverse it.

  6. Phil Shockley

    Oct 8, 2018 at 5:58 pm

    The ONLY way you will end this debate if for the USGA and R&A to get some balls and eliminate the Long Putter, that will end the debate. I watch the Champions Tour and Langer says he does not anchor it but it appears that he does. Unless and Until they invalidate the use of the long putter, these discussions will continue.
    Another thought that an attorney friend stated to me is until both sides of the ocean elect NON-LAWYERS to positions of power they will never get anything done, they are the ONLY people to debate what the word IS means.

  7. C

    Oct 8, 2018 at 2:22 pm

    Yes… ban them…. anything past 36 inches should be like hockey allowing extra length for only tall players. Should get rid of mallets too. Way past time for pro equipment rules.

    • Wilfred Lowe

      Oct 8, 2018 at 6:58 pm

      If it was that much better wouldn’t all pros being doing it? Use your head if you spent the time to perfect your stroke you would do what is BEST for YOU, right. Just because you are not good at it don’t put it down. The way you talk every buddy should put the same way. Well real golfers know that Everyone is different,thus you see many different styles and Strokes whatever works within the rules. Sounds to me like you are jealous of good putters. You should try it maybe you will learn something that would help your game.

    • Bruce

      Oct 15, 2018 at 9:47 am

      Let’s go back to wood woods, hickory shafts, and feather stuffed balls – that’s how real men play.

  8. art Williams

    Oct 8, 2018 at 1:32 pm

    I tried it years ago and could not master it. It is not easy. In the beginning I felt it was not a true stroke and should have been deemed illegal. However, the USGA & the R & A took forever to move on this style of putting that it seemed unfair to then come up with the “anchor ban”. If they want to revisit it go ahead with a ban on major pro tours and elite amateur tournaments like the US Am. Let regular hackers use it if it keeps them coming out to the course each week. Golf is a game right? I’d bet half of those yelling about this putting style roll the ball in the fairway and take their share of mulligans. Play on!

  9. Bradley Smith

    Oct 8, 2018 at 12:55 pm

    1s the only player to win a major using a long putter is Adam Scott the others used belly putters !
    2nd the R&A alongwith the USGA brought the anchor ban into stopping the use of thè belly putter which they have achieved !

    the long putter was never an issue with them

  10. joro

    Oct 8, 2018 at 12:33 pm

    It should either be banned or OK’d, but not this BS. So many times it looks like they anchor it but the Cameras move behind them and you can’t see what is going on. But I do believe both MeCarron and Longer have been connected many times. There really was no reason to ban it in the first place other than the usual, Gary, jack, and Arnie didn’t like it and the Bluenoses had obey. They didn’t like the Grooves, the Bluenoses changed it, as well as the length of a Driver. It is stupid and like every other rule, not enforced. So there!!!

  11. Bob Jones

    Oct 8, 2018 at 12:27 pm

    The anchor ban was a misguided rule designed only to get back at anchoring pros winning major championships. Unfortunately, millions of recreational golfers got caught up in the hysteria.

  12. Doug

    Oct 8, 2018 at 11:39 am

    Rules change when a person wins and someone in power doesn’t like the winner’s style of play.

  13. Cody

    Oct 8, 2018 at 7:53 am

    the short and long of it is no, they do not need to ban them completely. it was a stupid rule to begin with.

  14. DJ Morris

    Oct 8, 2018 at 7:09 am

    Make the rules say that the putter MUST be the shortest club in your bag…. End of discussion and problem solved!

    • scott

      Oct 10, 2018 at 11:38 am

      No. Who is to say what length a wedge should be?

  15. andrew

    Oct 7, 2018 at 9:32 pm

    They should keep long putters and remove the anchor ban. What did really change?

  16. ChipNRun

    Oct 7, 2018 at 7:50 pm

    Have you seen the old photo in the Royal & Ancient clubhours at St. Andrews of the man being locked in the stocks for using a “longe putter”?

    The answer is no, the photo doesn’t exist. As BD57 notes, the ban was a “get off my lawn” moment for the USGA.

    And SHAWN nails it too – the longer putter relieves stress on those with bad backs.

  17. 4RiGHT

    Oct 7, 2018 at 5:26 pm

    I’ll make this long story short! Yes!!!

  18. BD57

    Oct 7, 2018 at 9:22 am

    Banning the long / belly putter was the USGA’s “get off my lawn” moment.

    If they were going to do it, the time was back when Orville Moody started using it. But they didn’t, because Orville was a horrifically bad putter “conventionally,” and they knew it, and they chose not to drive him out of the game.

    The situation was similar with the other seniors who started using them – they were older guys, past their prime, and so what?

    The USGA lost it’s mind when they saw younger guys using the belly putter. But they had both hands together on the thing – they just had the club tucked into their stomach. Still had to stroke it; you can still pull or push the heck out of a putt with your hands using a belly putter. But it “didn’t look right,” so – 20+ years after the fact, the USGA told the kids to “get off their lawn.”

    Meanwhile, for those 20+ years, people who don’t play for a living, who want to play by the rules, had been using one form or another of a “long putter” so they could at least NOT DREAD walking on a green – and they get told “you’re illegal, you have to go back to feeling like you have a snake in your hands.”

    Stupid, counterproductive, rule.

    P.S. – don’t use a belly or long putter. Tried the belly putter for a good stretch …. wound up going back to conventional, because it just. wasn’t. better. for. me.

  19. Mit

    Oct 7, 2018 at 8:04 am

    Using stats don’t justify a long putter. Who cares if the stats don’t say it makes you better, the action is not a stroke,

    Using a bad back is not justification. If you can swing a wedge you can swing a putter. And if it hurts to pick a ball, get a suction cup put on the end of your putter grip. It’s not a stroke.

    The entire action of a broom handled/arm locked putter flies in the face of a golf “swing”. It’s accepted cheating in my book.

    No broom handles,
    No arm locks,
    A putter in your hands….learn to deal with it like all the other things we have to deal with in golf.

    Glad I got that off my chest 🙂

  20. Douglas Moore

    Oct 6, 2018 at 11:34 pm

    If the long putter is such an advantage, and putting is arguably the most important part of the game EVERY tour Pro would put it into play.
    If the long putter could cut 1/2 stroke per round, that’s 2 strokes per tournament.
    As far as the guy up top saying he’s personally seen Langer on tv anchoring his putter, you are wrong. When I hold my putter 1/8″.to 1/16″ away, it’s brushing my shirt and you would be mistaken when you accuse me of cheating.
    Put a sensor on all long putters and players. If anchoring is taking place a buzzer or light goes off. Simple and effective.
    Go try a long putter for yourself. Absolutely difficult to master.

  21. Tyler

    Oct 6, 2018 at 10:32 pm

    I have seen Langer on TV anchor his putter. It was obvious and Langer says there is no intent. I can’t believe more players on the Senior Tour don’t speak out on it.

  22. shawn

    Oct 6, 2018 at 4:46 pm

    How did this all happen? Most on this forum don’t know. Here’s the story.
    The long putter originated in the early 1980s. Older golfers with bad backs seized on it as did some pros. The USGA and R&A had to make a decision. They allowed it. Why?
    Because then U.S. President Bush Sr. used it and promoted it. The USGA couldn’t go against the POTUS. Believe it or not…

  23. Eric

    Oct 6, 2018 at 12:22 pm

    Rules of golf should establish a maximum shaft length for a putter, this would put a end to the anchoring issues.

    • shawn

      Oct 6, 2018 at 4:59 pm

      In badminton the serve must be hit below waist height and with the racquet shaft pointing downwards. Similarly in golf, both hands must be below waist height at Address.

      • Greg V

        Oct 6, 2018 at 5:17 pm

        I think that this would be a great rule. IT would eliminate the broom stick – which is really not a golf swing (it is a lever action). But it would allow the belly putter – which to me looks like a golf swing.

      • Scott

        Oct 10, 2018 at 11:42 am

        Then how do you hit a side hill shot when the ball is above waist high? It does not happen often, but it can happen.

  24. Brandon

    Oct 6, 2018 at 11:21 am

    Golf is hard. Most people can’t break 90. Nothing should be banned. Why are the governing bodies so intent on driving people away from the game?

    • shawn

      Oct 6, 2018 at 4:48 pm

      Okay… but should tour pros be allowed to use it? Or only if they can’t break 90?

  25. Kim Hay

    Oct 6, 2018 at 10:49 am

    There is one way to fix all of this. Add to the rules of golf that all strokes must executed with the hands in contact with each other. The long putter action is not a stoke, it is a push. Would you ever hit a drive with the hands separated by 18″? Use any length putter you want as long as the your hands are in some way in contact.

    • Henry

      Oct 6, 2018 at 10:56 am

      I agree they need to tidy things up, but what you’re discussing would lead to many claw style grips being banned as well – that’s a tonne of players.

      • America

        Oct 6, 2018 at 12:23 pm

        Or ton, if spelled correctly.

      • Kim Hay

        Oct 7, 2018 at 11:25 am

        Claw style grips could still be used if there is contact between the hands otherwise it is a push or scoop, not a stroke. New rule description: “A stroke is the action of propelling a ball by striking it with a club held in both hands contacting each other.” Controversy over.

        • gunmetal

          May 29, 2019 at 1:14 am

          So no more one handed backwards punch outs, a la Sergio in the tree? No more split grip/hockey style even with response putters?

    • TJH

      Oct 6, 2018 at 2:01 pm

      That would then eliminate the claw grip as well

      • Greg V

        Oct 6, 2018 at 5:15 pm

        Why would it eliminate the claw? I use the claw, and my hands are touching. Every pro that uses the claw has his hands touching – not on top of the shaft, but underneath the shaft.

        • JC

          Oct 6, 2018 at 7:06 pm

          Try using a Bear Claw to putt. That’s one sweet way to putt.

  26. Ken

    Oct 6, 2018 at 10:36 am

    Anchoring should never have been banned. They have hurt the average golfer trying to simply enjoy a difficult game. At the height of the controversy with some major winners using anchoring the majority of wins occurred with conventional style putting so shouldn’t that be banned? Need bifurcation of the rules if these are the kind of short sited decisions and can hardly wait until a roll back of distance measures. This could continue the decline of the game

    • shawn

      Oct 6, 2018 at 4:51 pm

      The long putter doesn’t ‘help’ the good average golfer… it helps the decrepit golfer with a bad back and can’t bend over to putt… and get the ball out of the hole either.

    • Myron miller

      Oct 8, 2018 at 12:55 pm

      fully agree. Although I did try the long putter about 30+ years ago. had one specially built for me and tried it for a few weeks. i found that with short putts it was excellent but really really struggled getting the distance right on 20-40 foot putts. Much easier to control regular putter ( but i use a 37″ putter rather than the standard 35″ that is pretty standard. I can’t bend over that well. use tool for getting ball out of hole. easy to use and fully legal.

      same rules for pros and regular amateurs has never made any sense to me. Baseball has long had different rules as does football. College basketball is different from pro’s to college to high school, etc. Don’t know about tennis.

      But image is everything to USGA and R&A. Practicality isn’t meaningful.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open betting preview

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As the Florida swing comes to an end, the PGA Tour makes its way to Houston to play the Texas Children’s Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course.

This will be the fourth year that Memorial Park Golf Course will serve as the tournament host. The event did not take place in 2023, but the course hosted the event in 2020, 2021 and 2022.

Memorial Park is a par-70 layout measuring 7,432 yards and features Bermudagrass greens. Historically, the main defense for the course has been thick rough along the fairways and tightly mown runoff areas around the greens. Memorial Park has a unique setup that features three Par 5’s and five Par 3’s.

The field will consist of 132 players, with the top 65 and ties making the cut. There are some big names making the trip to Houston, including Scottie Scheffler, Wyndham Clark, Tony Finau, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala.

Past Winners at Memorial Park

  • 2022: Tony Finau (-16)
  • 2021: Jason Kokrak (-10)
  • 2020: Carlos Ortiz (-13)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Memorial Park

Let’s take a look at several metrics for Memorial Park to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds:

Strokes Gained: Approach

Memorial Park is a pretty tough golf course. Golfers are penalized for missing greens and face some difficult up and downs to save par. Approach will be key.

Total Strokes Gained: Approach per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.30)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.26)
  3. Keith Mitchell (+0.97) 
  4. Tony Finau (+0.92)
  5. Jake Knapp (+0.84)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Memorial Park is a long golf course with rough that can be penal. Therefore, a combination of distance and accuracy is the best metric.

Total Strokes Gained: Off the Tee per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+0.94)
  2. Kevin Dougherty (+0.93)
  3. Cameron Champ (+0.86)
  4. Rafael Campos (+0.84)
  5. Si Woo Kim (+0.70)

Strokes Gained Putting: Bermudagrass + Fast

The Bermudagrass greens played fairly fast the past few years in Houston. Jason Kokrak gained 8.7 strokes putting on his way to victory in 2021 and Tony Finau gained in 7.8 in 2022.

Total Strokes Gained Putting (Bermudagrass) per round past 24 rounds (min. 8 rounds):

  1. Adam Svensson (+1.27)
  2. Harry Hall (+1.01)
  3. Martin Trainer (+0.94)
  4. Taylor Montgomery (+0.88)
  5. S.H. Kim (+0.86)

Strokes Gained: Around the Green

With firm and undulating putting surfaces, holding the green on approach shots may prove to be a challenge. Memorial Park has many tightly mowed runoff areas, so golfers will have challenging up-and-down’s around the greens. Carlos Ortiz gained 5.7 strokes around the green on the way to victory in 2020.

Total Strokes Gained: Around the Green per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Mackenzie Hughes (+0.76)
  2. S.H. Kim (+0.68)
  3. Scottie Scheffler (+0.64)
  4. Jorge Campillo (+0.62)
  5. Jason Day (+0.60)

Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult

Memorial Park is a long and difficult golf course. This statistic will incorporate players who’ve had success on these types of tracks in the past. 

Total Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.45)
  2. Ben Griffin (+1.75)
  3. Will Zalatoris (+1.73)
  4. Ben Taylor (+1.53)
  5. Tony Finau (+1.42)

Course History

Here are the players who have performed the most consistently at Memorial Park. 

Strokes Gained Total at Memorial Park past 12 rounds:

  1. Tyson Alexander (+3.65)
  2. Ben Taylor (+3.40)
  3. Tony Finau (+2.37)
  4. Joel Dahmen (+2.25)
  5. Patton Kizzire (+2.16)

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (24%) SG: OTT (24%); SG: Putting Bermudagrass/Fast (13%); SG: Long and Difficult (13%); SG: ARG (13%) and Course History (13%)

  1. Scottie Scheffler
  2. Wyndham Clark
  3. Tony Finau
  4. Joel Dahmen
  5. Stephan Jaeger 
  6. Aaron Rai
  7. Sahith Theegala
  8. Keith Mitchell 
  9. Jhonnatan Vegas
  10. Jason Day
  11. Kurt Kitayama
  12. Alex Noren
  13. Will Zalatoris
  14. Si Woo Kim
  15. Adam Long

2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open Picks

Will Zalatoris +2000 (Caesars)

Scottie Scheffler will undoubtedly be difficult to beat this week, so I’m starting my card with someone who I believe has the talent to beat him if he doesn’t have his best stuff.

Will Zalatoris missed the cut at the PLAYERS, but still managed to gain strokes on approach while doing so. In an unpredictable event with extreme variance, I don’t believe it would be wise to discount Zalatoris based on that performance. Prior to The PLAYERS, the 27-year-old finished T13, T2 and T4 in his previous three starts.

Zalatoris plays his best golf on long and difficult golf courses. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the category, but the eye test also tells a similar story. He’s contended at major championships and elevated events in the best of fields with tough scoring conditions.  The Texas resident should be a perfect fit at Memorial Park Golf Club.

Alex Noren +4500 (FanDuel)

Alex Noren has been quietly playing some of his best golf of the last half decade this season. The 41-year-old is coming off back-to-back top-20 finishes in Florida including a T9 at The PLAYERS in his most recent start.

In his past 24 rounds, Noren ranks 21st in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 30th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, 25th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses and 21st in Strokes Gained: Putting on fast Bermudagrass greens.

In addition to his strong recent play, the Swede also has played well at Memorial Park. In 2022, Noren finished T4 at the event, gaining 2.2 strokes off the tee and 7.0 strokes on approach for the week. In his two starts at the course, he’s gained an average of .6 strokes per round on the field, indicating he is comfortable on these greens.

Noren has been due for a win for what feels like an eternity, but Memorial Park may be the course that suits him well enough for him to finally get his elusive first PGA Tour victory.

Mackenzie Hughes +8000 (FanDuel)

Mackenzie Hughes found himself deep into contention at last week’s Valspar Championship before faltering late and finishing in a tie for 3rd place. While he would have loved to win the event, it’s hard to see the performance as anything other than an overwhelming positive sign for the Canadian.

Hughes has played great golf at Memorial Park in the past. He finished T7 in 2020, T29 in 2021 and T16 in 2022. The course fit seems to be quite strong for Hughes. He’s added distance off the tee in the past year or and ranks 8th in the field for apex height, which will be a key factor when hitting into Memorial Park’s elevated greens with steep run-off areas.

In his past 24 rounds, Hughes is the best player in the field in Strokes Gained: Around the Greens. The ability to scramble at this course will be extremely important. I believe Hughes can build off of his strong finish last week and contend once again to cement himself as a President’s Cup consideration.

Akshay Bhatia +8000 (FanDuel)

Akshay Bhatia played well last week at the Valspar and seemed to be in total control of his golf ball. He finished in a tie for 17th and shot an impressive -3 on a difficult Sunday. After struggling Thursday, Akshay shot 68-70-68 in his next three rounds.

Thus far, Bhatia has played better at easier courses, but his success at Copperhead may be due to his game maturing. The 22-year-old has enormous potential and the raw talent to be one of the best players in the world when he figures it all out.

Bhatia is a high upside play with superstar qualities and may just take the leap forward to the next stage of his career in the coming months.

Cameron Champ +12000 (FanDuel)

Cameron Champ is a player I often target in the outright betting market due to his “boom-or-bust” nature. It’s hard to think of a player in recent history with three PGA Tour wins who’s been as inconsistent as Champ has over the course of his career.

Despite the erratic play, Cam Champ simply knows how to win. He’s won in 2018, 2019 and 2021, so I feel he’s due for a win at some point this season. The former Texas A&M product should be comfortable in Texas and last week he showed us that his game is in a pretty decent spot.

Over his past 24 rounds, Champ ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 30th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses. Given his ability to spike at any given time, Memorial Park is a good golf course to target Champ on at triple digit odds.

Robert MacIntyre +12000 (FanDuel)

The challenge this week is finding players who can possibly beat Scottie Scheffler while also not dumping an enormous amount of money into an event that has a player at the top that looks extremely dangerous. Enter McIntyre, who’s another boom-or-bust type player who has the ceiling to compete with anyone when his game is clicking on all cylinders.

In his past 24 rounds, MacIntyre ranks 16th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 17th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and 10th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses.

MacIntyre’s PGA Tour season has gotten off to a slow start, but he finished T6 in Mexico, which is a course where players will hit driver on the majority of their tee shots, which is what we will see at Memorial Park. Texas can also get quite windy, which should suit MacIntyre. Last July, the Scot went toe to toe with Rory McIlroy at the Scottish Open before a narrow defeat. It would take a similar heroic effort to compete with Scheffler this year in Houston.

Ryan Moore +15000 (FanDuel)

Ryan Moore’s iron play has been absolutely unconscious over his past few starts. At The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field, he gained 6.1 strokes on approach and last week at Copperhead, he gained 9.0 strokes on approach.

It’s been a rough handful of years on Tour for the 41-year-old, but he is still a five-time winner on the PGA Tour who’s young enough for a career resurgence. Moore has chronic deterioration in a costovertebral joint that connects the rib to the spine, but has been getting more consistent of late, which is hopefully a sign that he is getting healthy.

Veterans have been contending in 2024 and I believe taking a flier on a proven Tour play who’s shown signs of life is a wise move at Memorial Park.

 

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Why the race to get better at golf might be doing more harm than good

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B.F. Skinner was one of the most important psychologists of the 20th century, developing the foundation of the development of reinforcement, and in doing so, creating the concept of behaviorism. In simple terms, this means that we are conditioned by our habits. In practical terms, it explains the divide between the few and far between elite instructors and college coaches.

To understand the application, let’s quickly review one of B.F. Skinner’s most important experiments; superstitions in the formation of behavior by pigeons. In this experiment, food was dispensed to pigeons at random intervals. Soon, according to Skinner, the pigeons began to associate whatever action they were doing at the time of the food being dispensed. According to Skinner, this conditioned that response and soon, they simply haphazardly repeated the action, failing to distinguish between cause and correlation (and in the meantime, looking really funny!).

Now, this is simply the best way to describe the actions of most every women’s college golf coach and too many instructors in America. They see something work, get positive feedback and then become conditioned to give the feedback, more and more, regardless of if it works (this is also why tips from your buddies never work!).

Go to a college event, particularly a women’s one, and you will see coaches running all over the place. Like the pigeons in the experiment, they have been conditioned into a codependent relationship with their players in which they believe their words and actions, can transform a round of golf. It is simply hilarious while being equally perturbing

In junior golf, it’s everywhere. Junior golf academies make a living selling parents that a hysterical coach and over-coaching are essential ingredients in your child’s success.

Let’s be clear, no one of any intellect has any real interest in golf — because it’s not that interesting. The people left, including most coaches and instructors, carve out a small fiefdom, usually on the corner of the range, where they use the illusion of competency to pray on people. In simple terms, they baffle people with the bullshit of pseudo-science that they can make you better, after just one more lesson.

The reality is that life is an impromptu game. The world of golf, business, and school have a message that the goal is being right. This, of course, is bad advice, being right in your own mind is easy, trying to push your ideas on others is hard. As a result, it is not surprising that the divorce rate among golf professionals and their instructors is 100 percent. The transfer rate among college players continues to soar, and too many courses have a guy peddling nefarious science to good people. In fact, we do at my course!

The question is, what impact does all this have on college-age and younger kids? At this point, we honestly don’t know. However, I am going to go out on a limb and say it isn’t good.

Soren Kierkegaard once quipped “I saw it for what it is, and I laughed.” The actions of most coaches and instructors in America are laughable. The problem is that I am not laughing because they are doing damage to kids, as well as driving good people away from this game.

The fact is that golfers don’t need more tips, secrets, or lessons. They need to be presented with a better understanding of the key elements of golf. With this understanding, they can then start to frame which information makes sense and what doesn’t. This will emancipate them and allow them to take charge of their own development.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Valspar Championship betting preview: Elite ballstrikers to thrive at Copperhead

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The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2024 Valspar Championship.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermudagrass greens overseeded with POA. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 16, 17 and 18 — also known as the “Snake Pit” — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.

The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. The field this week is solid and is a major improvement over last year’s field that felt the impact of players skipping due to a handful of “signature events” in a short span of time. 

Past Winners at Valspar Championship

  • 2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
  • 2022: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
  • 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
  • 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
  • 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
  • 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Copperhead

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can’t be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)

  1. Tony Finau (+.90)
  2. Nick Taylor (+.81)
  3. Justin Thomas (+.77)
  4. Greyson Sigg (+.69)
  5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+.67)

2. Good Drive %

The long hitters can be a bit limited here due to the tree-lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important, but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.

Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+91.3%) 
  2. Zach Johnson (+91.1%)
  3. Sam Ryder (+90.5%)
  4. Ryan Moore (+90.4%)
  5. Aaron Rai (+89.7%)

3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1.32)
  2. Keith Mitchell (+1.29)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.24)
  4. Cameron Young (+1.17) 
  5. Doug Ghim (+.95)

4. Bogey Avoidance

With the conditions likely to be difficult, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, oftentimes the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.

Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.

Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+9.0)
  2. Xander Schauffele (+9.3)
  3. Austin Cook (+9.7) 
  4. Chesson Hadley (+10.0)
  5. Greyson Sigg (+10.2)

5. Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions

Conditions will be tough this week at Copperhead. I am looking for golfers who can rise to the occasion if the course plays as difficult as it has in the past.

Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1,71) 
  2. Min Woo Lee (+1.39)
  3. Cameron Young (+1.27)
  4. Jordan Spieth (+1.08)
  5. Justin Suh (+.94)

6. Course History

That statistic will tell us which players have played well at Copperhead in the past.

Course History Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+3.75) 
  2. Sam Burns (+2.49)
  3. Davis Riley (+2.33)
  4. Matt NeSmith (+2.22)
  5. Jordan Spieth (+2.04)

The Valspar Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Good Drive % (15%), SG: BS (20%), Bogeys Avoided (13%), Course History (13%) Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions (12%).

  1. Xander Schauffele
  2. Doug Ghim
  3. Victor Perez
  4. Greyson Sigg
  5. Ryan Moore
  6. Tony Finau
  7. Justin Thomas
  8. Sam Ryder
  9. Sam Burns
  10. Lucas Glover

2024 Valspar Championship Picks

Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)

Justin Thomas will be disappointed with his finish at last week’s PLAYERS Championship, as the past champion missed the cut despite being in some decent form heading into the event. Despite the missed cut, JT hit the ball really well. In his two rounds, the two-time major champion led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach per round.

Thomas has been up and down this season. He’s missed the cut in two “signature events” but also has finishes of T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T6 at the Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am and T3 at the American Express. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in the field.

Thomas loves Copperhead. In his last three tries at the course, he’s finished T13, T3 and T10. Thomas would have loved to get a win at a big event early in the season, but avoidable mistakes and a balky putter have cost him dearly. I believe a trip to a course he loves in a field he should be able to capitalize on is the right recipe for JT to right the ship.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (FanDuel)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is playing spectacular golf in the 2024 season. He finished 2nd at the American Express, T20 at Pebble Beach and T24 at the Genesis Invitational before finishing T13 at last week’s PLAYERS Championship.

In his past 24 rounds, the South African ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 26th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. Bezuidenhout managed to work his way around TPC Sawgrass last week with minimal damage. He only made five bogeys in the entire week, which is a great sign heading into a difficult Copperhead this week.

Bezuidenhout is winless in his PGA Tour career, but certainly has the talent to win on Tour. His recent iron play tells me that this week could be a breakthrough for the 35-year-old who has eyes on the President’s Cup.

Doug Ghim +8000 (FanDuel)

Doug Ghim has finished in the top-16 of his past five starts. Most recently, Ghim finished T16 at The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field.

In his past 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 5th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. In terms of his fit for Copperhead, the 27-year-old ranks 12th in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions, making him a great fit for the course.

Ghim has yet to win on Tour, but at one point he was the top ranked Amateur golfer in the world and played in the 2017 Arnold Palmer Cup and 2017 Walker Cup. He then won the Ben Hogan award for the best male college golfer in 2018. He certainly has the talent, and there are signals aplenty that his talent in ready to take him to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour.

Sepp Straka +8000 (BetRivers)

Sepp Straka is a player who’s shown he has the type of game that can translate to a difficult Florida golf course. The former Presidents Cup participant won the 2022 Honda Classic in tough conditions and should thrive with a similar test at Copperhead.

It’s been a slow 2024 for Straka, but his performance last week at the PLAYERS Championship surely provides some optimism. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach as well as 1.88 strokes off the tee. The tee-to-green game Straka showed on a course with plenty of danger demonstrates that he can stay in control of his golf ball this week.

It’s possible that the strong performance last week was an outlier, but I’m willing to bet on a proven winner in a weaker field at a great number.

Victor Perez +12000 (FanDuel)

Victor Perez is no stranger to success in professional golf. The Frenchman has three DP World Tour wins including a Rolex Series event. He won the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, as well as the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which are some big events.

Perez earned his PGA Tour card this season and enters the week playing some fantastic golf. He finished in a tie for 16th in Florida at the Cognizant Classic and then tied for third in his most recent start at the Puerto Rico Open.

In his past 24 rounds in the field, Perez ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 1oth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Good Drive % and 15th in Bogey Avoidance.

Perez comes in as a perfect fit for Copperhead and offers serious value at triple-digit odds.

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