Opinion & Analysis

The endangered state of Scottish golf

Published

5 years ago

Nov 11, 2018

Florida. May 1993. That is the moment I really got into golf. Sure, like most youngsters of that time, I’d had my dad’s old clubs, shafts cut down with insulating tape acting as the grip, and I belted balls around the back garden with no thought of what I was doing. But that family vacation really made it sink in how good this game is. Round-the-clock coverage on cable, golf shops everywhere, and sunshine–what more can you ask for?

My parents bought me my first set of clubs, we had a couple of trips to the range, a quick nine holes, and a lifelong golfer was born. So why did it take a trip to the United States for a nine-year-old from the home of golf, from the relative golfing mecca of Ayrshire, to take notice of this great sport?

It wasn’t as if it wasn’t booming in the UK at that time. Troon and Turnberry, 15 minutes in either direction, had hosted the Open within five years of each other around that time. Englishman Nick Faldo had won 2 Open Championships in ‘90 and ‘92. He successfully defended the Masters in 1990–Ian Woosnam from Wales succeeded him. And more importantly a Scot, Sandy Lyle, had collected his second major in just three years at Augusta in 1988–after becoming the first Scot since the 1920s to win the Open in 1985. Golf in the UK was in a great place, and Scotland had its fair share of success at the time with Torrance and Montgomerie joining Lyle at golf’s top table.

If it took that family intervention for me during that period of golfing supremacy, what hope do the children of today have 25 years on?

I imagine the vast majority that play the game took it up in similar fashion to myself. A push from a playing family member or close friend. Different circumstances or timing perhaps, but similar nonetheless. Some will have looked at Montgomerie, Lyle et al and have taken inspiration from them.

So with participation numbers dwindling and clubs struggling, are the kids now having less influence from within the family to take up the game? Is the drop in adult participation affecting the influx from the juniors? That’s worrying, as it’s never been easier, or more affordable (relatively speaking) to get into a golf club. 25 years ago there was waiting lists and huge joining fees. Not now. You can pretty much join up anywhere with little or no joining fee. This trend looks like continuing with the variety of alternatives out there – with little or no encouragement, what incentive is there for a junior to go out in the wind and rain to learn a game that it is deemed expensive and time consuming, and one that takes years to learn when you know you’ll never master it?

Hopefully some of Scotland’s youngsters could take inspiration from the Scots at the elite level of the game – but who exactly would that be? At the time of writing there is ONE Scot in the top 100 of the official golf world rankings. Russell Knox at 59. The next best placed is Martin Laird who isn’t even in the top 150 at present. Both of these guys are based in the US but their skills were honed in Inverness and Glasgow respectively. In the cold and wet. Like the Lyle’s, Torrance’s and Montgomerie’s before them. We invented this game and that is what we have to show for it?

Can you imagine the outcry if the United States stopped producing football players, the Canadians gave up on their ice hockey, or heaven forbid, the All Blacks became an also ran in the Rugby world? So why do we accept it?

Our best golfing achievement of recent times was Paul Lawrie’s Open Championship at Carnoustie in 1999–recent being 19 years ago–an indication of how far we have fallen. In the period between then and now, only two Scots have even made a top 10 in a major–Montgomerie on three occasions and Alastair Forsyth in the 2008 PGA. Four top 10s in 53 events since Lawrie’s success. Majors are hard. Only a select few can win one, or even contend in one, but four in 53 is poor when countries such as Sweden, Germany, New Zealand, Canada and Fiji–none of which have the history and tradition in the game as Scotland–have produced winners. Take nothing away from those guys, but we must produce more players with better quality to compete again at that level.

We haven’t even fared well as a nation in regular events on the European or PGA Tours in that time. Only 13 players since Carnoustie ‘99 have even been in the winner’s circle, combining for 34 wins in total over the two main tours – Montgomerie claiming a third of those himself. 34 wins in 1,686 events (including co-sanctioned events) since Lawrie lifted the Claret Jug.

The home of golf, the country that has given this wonderful sport to the world has combined to win one in every 50 events, or worse, just two percent of the tournaments played on the two main tours. To further highlight the issue, Only Montgomerie since Lyle has reached the OWGR top 10, peaking at No. 2. Russell Knox is the only other to even breach the top 20, briefly hitting 18th.

Kudos to all of these guys who have got the job done. They’ve achieved what we all dream of. But we need to do more. We have a duty to do more. So how do we achieve that?

We hosted the first ever Open Championship at Prestwick Golf Club and we currently have five of the ten Open Championship courses on the rota. We have staged two of the best Open Championships in recent memory in our country–the Tom Watson story, albeit without the fairytale ending in 2009 and the epic Stenson/Mickelson duel at Troon in 2016. Between them, we’ve hosted a successful Ryder Cup and despite all the buzz around these events, our participation levels haven’t dramatically risen.

That’s the first step–getting more people, primarily juniors, started in the game. Golf is the most frustrating game in the world. Can you imagine trying to start playing now, as an adult? How much more frustrated you would be if you were picking up a club for the first time? The vast majority of people, myself included, would give up not long after starting. As a kid you don’t. It’s enjoyable, you’re more patient and you’re playing with kids of similar ages and skill sets. By the time that youngster develops into a teenager or a young adult, they know the basics, they can understand the game and all its quirks, and they can get round the course with their friends. Simple when you put it like that. How does it work in practice?

Every child in primary school should have free access to golf. It’s that easy. We invented a game which has developed into a multi-billion dollar industry, why can’t we find ways to encourage our own to have the chance to play? Why are we not immensely proud of what we have given to the world? And why as a nation are we not embarrassed about our lack of success at the top in recent times?

According to the Scottish Government, there are 2,056 primary schools in the country, teaching 377,382 kids. Every single one of them should have the chance to play. Many will simply not like it–that’s not surprising, but as the saying goes, you won’t know until you try it. So if even one percent of them continue in the game, that’s nearly 4,000 extra participants. It can be included as part of the curriculum, used as an after school or holiday club negating or at least reducing the childcare commitments and at the very least it keeps kids active–aren’t we always hearing about our obesity and health problems? As they progress, secondary school golf can become a fixture the way soccer or rugby are, local and national competitions can become the norm as it is in other countries. Why can’t we even go even further and include university courses within the golf industry, the way Burnley Football Club are doing within the soccer industry. After all, there is more to golf than teeing it up.

Practically, it needs buy in from the key bodies. Scottish Golf are and should be key. They have appointed a new CEO this year in Andrew McKinlay. Unfortunately their achievements have been tarnished due to previous appointments, and Andrew’s past in the Scottish Football Association will not do much to raise optimism with the average Scottish golf enthusiast. While not trying to decry the new man before he’s finished his first year in office, appointing another executive, rather than someone with imagination and innovation seems counterproductive to the goals we should look to achieve.

There must be enough “executives” within the organization (and generally across the golfing industry in all national programs) to cover executive roles and allow the opportunity for someone younger with fresh, achievable goals in driving forward ideas from the golfing majority which benefit the golfing majority–not the elite level few. Regardless who that person is, engagement should be sought with the Local and National Government on how to best promote it. Local governments should be included to represent their schools, as should great programmes such as Clubgolf who do so much good work with youngsters in Scotland.

A prevalent media marketing campaign wouldn’t go a miss either, perhaps some endorsements and appraisals from the countries golfing legends would help make some noise. At least engage those professionals who’ve risen to the top of the game and seek advice on how to begin addressing the issue. Colin Montgomery and Paul Lawrie in particular have raised this exact issue recently in the media. These guys have traveled the world, competed against and beaten the best of the best and have seen how developing markets, particularly in Asia, are growing the game. It would be foolish not to tap into their experiences.

As with everything, it comes down to who pays the bills. Supply of equipment and facilities would be the main issue. UK Sport is committed to spending £340 million plus ahead of the Olympics in Tokyo. This includes £10 million for Taekwondo, £15 million for equestrian and £84 million on rowing, sailing and canoeing combined – can anyone name more than two participants in each discipline? If Team GB comes back with a similar medal haul (67) than those won in Rio–which included Justin Rose’s golfing gold–that works out as around £5 million per medal. Staggering. Add in the £30m for this years’ Winter Olympics where Team GB won five medals: £6m per medal. What’s the legacy for the outlay here? There aren’t thousands lining up around the local swimming pools or the nearest ski slope.

London 2012 is enough evidence that the effect is short term and for the elite few. This money is earmarked for Olympic sports, that’s fine, but surely a discussion should be had with how this pot of money, dedicated for sport in the whole of the UK, is better spent amongst those who’ve helped raise it? Scottish Government spending on sport this year is increasing to £30m–or to put it into perspective, the equivalent of an Olympic rowing budget. Increased participation and being active should be the key goals in all sport funded schemes, not paying for a handful of elite athletes to bring home a couple of medals.

Taxes imposed on manufacturers selling products on these shores could be ring-fenced to return to the grass roots of the game, and advertising is always a way of adding revenue to the pot. Local and national club makers could be approached to look at ways to introduce to this gap in the market–it can’t hurt these small businesses get a foothold in a market that they will never conquer against the major brands. And it can’t hurt the major brands to be involved in promoting and sponsoring these schemes – it’s small potato for the biggest brands in the world. Think of the visitors alone who flock to Scotland to play and the advertising for these brands would more than pay for any outlay to provide equipment for juniors. Sponsorship of the scheme from a number of sources can be investigated. There are huge companies all over the country sponsoring events and individuals. Approach some of these to see if they wish to be involved in a national scheme – the worst they can say is no. And think how many sets of clubs are lying around the country in garages, closets, lockers and the like: a donation scheme could be investigated.

The benefits are endless. Fitter, more engaged pupils–this goes someway to addressing the health problem we keep hearing of in this country. Kids from a more deprived background have an opportunity to play a game they may never have had previously. And lifelong friendships are formed on the course. It can even be argued that discipline and focus for some children that golf provides is exactly the outlet they need. Additional jobs will be created as a result. Teachers, greenskeepers, course marshals, catering staff–that’s just the start. Approach teaching pros or assistant pros looking to gain some teaching experience–these pupils may be their future. Driving ranges and municipal courses up and down the country are quiet for large periods of the day–make them available for school use, even just for a few hours and you may just have increased your future customer base. It’s not like many of the council run courses (or even private clubs) are thriving at the minute so what is there to lose? Clever marketing, which has started in a few courses, increases interest–free adult with a child, two season tickets for the price of one, there’s plenty that can be done. Again, this isn’t a scheme that can be limited to Scotland–participation around the vast majority of the world needs addressed.

And for children wishing to progress beyond the school programs: give them incentives to make it affordable. If we don’t, some of the good work this scheme could bring will be undone, and these kids will be lost to the game forever. There is a real opportunity here to make a difference, and while all the answers aren’t immediately available, the right people with right attitude will soon come up with them. What a legacy that could be to our game.

We are already at a watershed moment for Scottish golf, with decreasing numbers, clubs closing or fighting for their existence, and elite level Scottish golfers at a premium. Where will be in another 10 years time? Other countries, are thriving off the back of our game; it’s time we at least tried catch up–before it’s forgotten where golf came from.

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23 Comments

Coop

Nov 13, 2018 at 10:13 am

A good article Stuart. However, the decline has little to do with either accessibility or cost. Scotland has plenty of courses (probably too many) and all but a few are welcoming to juniors – more so than ever. Many clubs offer memberships at very low rates (less than £100 a year) and many are even offering free junior membership (and often free coaching too). There are many reasons why kids aren’t playing golf in the numbers they once did, but Scotland remains one of the cheapest places to play the game.

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Dave C.

Nov 13, 2018 at 7:58 am

Golf is a game you either love it or not.

Children are more into computers, social media, stuff that provides instant gratification, so are adults.

There will always be golf. Just not the related industries feeding off it.

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Coop

Nov 13, 2018 at 2:48 am

Stewart, a very good and thoughtful article. The decline of the game in the home of golf is very sad, however, it has little to do with cost or accessibility. Few if any country in the world has as many golf courses per head of population and clubs that juniors can join for little (and often zero) cost. On top of that many club will subsidise or even offer free tuition. Generally, clubs are desperate to attract new young golfers but, for all sorts of reasons, it’s a struggle to do so.

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CaoNiMa

Nov 13, 2018 at 2:08 am

So, you were in Florida, were you? Enjoying the sunshine and warm weather? And thought golf is great. Wow what a surprise. And you wonder why Scotland is the toilet you always thought it was when it pours and is grey and cold for 300 days of the year. Duh

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Johnny Penso

Nov 12, 2018 at 7:35 pm

Never thought I’d see the day someone would be advocating for bringing socialism to golf.

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Scott Ivlow

Nov 12, 2018 at 2:57 pm

It sounds like Scotland is in need of the First Tee Programs. Maybe that is why. If The First Tee had a program in every Elementary School. That would be a start. Even in the States it cost $3250 for every school to get started.
As for the weather in Scotland I can see why kids don’t want play Golf. I hate being in rain so I agree about the weather. Why would any kid want to play golf in the cold and and rain if they don’t have to? The average temperature in Scotland is less than 67°year round including the windy days and having a kid hacking a golf balls around a course for a couple of hours doesn’t seem like much fun on link style golf courses.
This leads to another problem Scotland prides itself in links golf courses but really there needs a number of Par 3 courses there to. Look at America a Par 3 course is a very good way to get youth in into golf because they don’t have to worry about being in the way of adults or intimidated by long courses. Even in America we have Executive 9 hole courses that makes it easier for kids and adults to play golf. Also in America there are many golf courses where you can play 18 holes under $50.
I take issue that adults can’t learn the game of golf. With many golf instruction videos it’s easier to learn to fix a golf swing than it was years ago. Also adults have jobs so it’s hard for many that careers and family to devote the time it takes to practice at golf range. I hate the Florida heat and humidity so how really wants to spend hours practicing in it. I took up Golf in 2011 at the age 43 I dispute that adults can’t learn the game as fast kids. Also Topgolf is also getting adults into the sport faster than a pubic golf course. Including beginners who never swung a golf club. So maybe in a few years Topgolf will grow in the UK.

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- Scheiss
  
  Nov 12, 2018 at 8:43 pm
  
  Topgolf isn’t bringing more people to the game. It’s bringing more drinkers and bowling hacker types, the movie goer types who enjoy guzzling jugs of beer and eat masses of chicken wings while they hack a few hits out to the range that is so wide and without real penalty scoring other than not getting point when hitting certain targets as opposed to the other way around of trying to score as low as possible.
  Then they get out to a real golf course and realise they have to walk a little, be in the sun or inclement weather, can’t have their jugs of beer nor chicken wings, and see how narrow the courses are with hazards and see that it’s really penalising when their hacker swings that work 1 in 10 that they thought is good to move the ball forward in a giant range and not sideways is enough, they just quit the game and go back to TopGolf and stay fixed in the bays guzzling more beer like it’s their happy hour.
  
  Reply Report comment
- Wr
  
  Nov 12, 2018 at 8:45 pm
  
  Topgolf isn’t bringing more people to the game. It’s bringing more drinkers and bowling hacker types, the movie goer types who enjoy guzzling jugs of beer and eat masses of chicken wings while they hack a few hits out to the range that is so wide and without real penalty scoring other than not getting point when hitting certain targets as opposed to the other way around of trying to score as low as possible.
  Then they get out to a real golf course and realise they have to walk a little, be in the sun or inclement weather, can’t have their jugs of beer nor chicken wings, and see how narrow the courses are with hazards and see that it’s really penalising when their hacker swings that work 1 in 10 that they thought is good to move the ball forward in a giant range and not sideways is enough, they just quit the game and go back to TopGolf and stay fixed in the bays guzzling more beer like it’s their happy hour.
  
  Reply Report comment
- Scheiss
  
  Nov 13, 2018 at 2:03 am
  
  Topgolf isn’t bringing more people to the game. It’s bringing more drinkers and bowling hacker types, the darts playing pool playing types who enjoy guzzling jugs of beer and eat masses of chicken wings while they hack a few hits out to the range that is so wide and without real penalty scoring other than not getting points when missing certain targets as opposed to the other way around of trying to score as low as possible.
  Then they get out to a real golf course and realise they have to walk a little, be in the sun or inclement weather, can’t have their jugs of beer nor chicken wings, and see how narrow the courses are with hazards and see that it’s really penalising when their hacker swings that work 1 in 10 that they thought is good to move the ball forward in a giant range and not sideways is enough, they also don’t want the hassle of raking bunkers or ballmarks nor fill in divots, so they just quit the game and go back to TopGolf and stay fixed in the bays guzzling more beer like it’s their happy hour.
  
  Reply Report comment
mike

Nov 12, 2018 at 2:32 pm

We suffer the same problems here in the USA. There are so many other media distractions that it is difficult for golf to attract players. Now we have top golf centers which seem to emphasize food and drink over golfing at a very expensive price point which in turn leaves you with little disposable income for playing golf. I though do believe that the key to making the game survive is through the golf powers showing golf courses that they need to bring juniors to the game through free golf and free instruction by professionals. They are our future customers, but they need good instruction so as to enjoy the game. Golf courses, and it has fallen on deaf ears at many courses, should work towards attracting more women and beginners with series of free lessons again by professionals. In my area I see little advertising for these class of golfers. I also see high green fees especially during the weekdays as a major deterrent. The new dynamic tee time model is also a big turnoff to everyone. Why should you pay higher price for a item on Tuesday versus Friday. The cost to the seller is the same. The courses are only gouging consumers. The same issue occurs with visitors to vacation areas where visitors pay more than locals. I don’t understand why I can spend $100s or $1000 to visit your area and then you want to charge me even more for golf. We do not play any courses which use dynamic or price inflation for visitors.

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Joseph Greenberg

Nov 12, 2018 at 11:02 am

having been fortunate to spend a fortnight in St
Andrews this summer and having been in the golf industry this last decade, i humbly offer this:
1) St. Andrews Academy should be modeled across Scotland’s clubs. Free range balls are a modest, minimal cost start.
2) The Academy gratefully accepted my set of clubs.
More should donate unused, moderately valued equipment
3) the margins for golf equipment in the UK are so high that a tithe/assessment from distributors to youth golf initiatives are a reasonable and wise cost of business
4) The St. Andrews Links Trust system of concession points makes golf exceedingly affordable, especially on the Strathyrum and Eden courses. Juniors should be able to pay these rates at their town’s clubs, if not less.
5) Juniors only windows for play after school hours
6) R&A works with Augusta National to spread its wildly successful Drive/Chip/Putt events (a recent visit to TPC Sawgrass saw hundreds of kids both participating and having fun). Scottish championship could be the at 1st tee/Himalayas of the Old Course

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Greg V

Nov 12, 2018 at 9:05 am

You forgot to mention the success that Scotswoman Catriona Matthew has had.

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Scheiss

Nov 12, 2018 at 1:47 am

https://www.standrews.com/play/green-fees

Um, those prices during the winter are ridiculous for the Old Course. In fact, it’s ridiculous during the summer, even. No wonder the kids don’t want to play, they get no discounts. Those prices should be half that for the adults and quarter that for the kids.

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- Doesnotno
  
  Nov 12, 2018 at 8:33 am
  
  Locals get a discount, but even if they didn’t, the Old Course is a special case – the Links Trust may well be justified in charging a premium /tourist surcharge for playing such an in-demand course, and using at least part of the proceeds to subsidise golf for juniors and locals on the other 6 courses they run in the area. There are also plenty of courses in St Andrews and the surrounding areas not associated with the trust.
  
  I’d worry less about getting new or young golfers onto the Old Course and more about charging people wanting to play the Old Course a premium that I could pump into the facilities and other courses to encourage the new golfers to play and keep playing.
  
  The practice and coaching facilities at St Andrews, and soon to be at Carnoustie, are fantastic, and you’d never struggle to get out on a course. It’s not Old Course prices that’s stopping youngsters from taking the game up or persevering with it.
  
  Reply Report comment
JThunder

Nov 12, 2018 at 1:04 am

How about this for an article:
“The endangered state of positive headlines in golf” … or even “The endangered state of positive headlines in media”?

Do you ever consider that, with a headline which essentially says “no one in Scotland is playing golf anymore” (which would be a pretty typical blog headline), maybe you’re actually telling people they *shouldn’t* be playing golf? Don’t most people follow trends rather than set them?

Do headlines like this ever encourage change?

Consider looking for something positive happening – somewhere – in Scottish golf, and report on that. If there isn’t anything, then use .wrx’s clout to start something – get sponsors involved.

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- Stuart
  
  Nov 12, 2018 at 8:23 am
  
  JThunder,
  
  With regards to your last comment, I’d love to get something started and I’ve a couple of draft proposals sitting ready to go. It’s something that’s important to me, and even from my own starting point in the game 25 years ago, participation has diminished at at alarming rate. Follow the trend and performance at the elite level is falling way behind where we were in the 80’s and 90’s and I don’t believe it’s a coincidence.
  
  It’s staggering that as a nation that invented the game, and continues to draws visitors from around the world to play, that some of the kids born in this country will never touch a golf club – that can’t be right.
  
  As for the headline, I’m sure you know how editing works 😉
  
  Thanks,
  
  Reply Report comment
duffer987

Nov 11, 2018 at 2:07 pm

Nice change of pace article. Few points:

“25 years ago there was waiting lists and huge joining fees. Not now. You can pretty much join up anywhere with little or no joining fee.”

Can you point to some independent studies which back up this claim?

“Can you imagine the outcry if the United States stopped producing football players, the Canadians gave up on their ice hockey, or heaven forbid, the All Blacks became an also ran in the Rugby world? So why do we accept it?”

Individual sports and team sports are not the same thing.

“Can you imagine trying to start playing now, as an adult? ”

Actually, doesn’t that occur quite often? I’d assume the 25+ category of new joiners would be something to focus on, no?

“The vast majority of people, myself included, would give up not long after starting. As a kid you don’t. It’s enjoyable, you’re more patient and you’re playing with kids of similar ages and skill sets.”

Can you point to some evidence that you trying to equate “myself” with “vast majority” as being a valid equation. Kids are more patient than adults?

“Every child in primary school should have free access to golf. It’s that easy.”

That’s not easy.

“While not trying to decry the new man…”

But you go ahead and do exactly that.

“UK Sport is…”

Total red herring. I’m sure you know the remit of UK Sport. If not you should read it. Why zero mention of Sport Scotland? The actual grass roots organization that should surely be the initial target of getting any governmental assistance.

Reply Report comment
Begbie

Nov 11, 2018 at 11:40 am

Well, if you can change the weather in Scotland, you’d have more players lmao

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Andrue

Nov 11, 2018 at 10:57 am

“Can you imagine trying to start playing now, as an adult?”

Um, yes. I took up golf 8 years ago aged 42. I love it. Most people I’ve met took up golf as adults. Okay so I’m not a professional and will only ever be a keen amateur but if you think golf should only be taken up by children I think you’re missing a significant demographic.

Unlike a child I have quite a decent disposable income 😉

Reply Report comment
- Stuart
  
  Nov 12, 2018 at 8:30 am
  
  Andrue,
  
  That’s great. Golf should absolutely be inclusive and anyone of any age should be able to take it up. I’d like kids in Scotland to get the opportunity to play for free at school – you’re right, they don’t have disposable income and some will never get the opportunity to play as a result.
  
  The main point of the article was to highlight the lack of participation (or decline in participation) at young age groups in Scotland, which I believe is now having an effect in the professional game. Not many adults who take up the game will go on to forge successful pro careers – it’s just the way it goes unfortunately.
  
  Reply Report comment
Steve

Nov 11, 2018 at 10:00 am

Any kid under 10 should play for free if golf has any chance of growing. Then again, I took my kids to the schoolyard to hit around this weekend and they had a blast without some ranger getting on their case.

Reply Report comment
- Simms
  
  Nov 12, 2018 at 5:42 pm
  
  Need some truth about those first tee programs…I mean the average public first tee, not the uppity Country Club kids first tee..Kids 10 to 16, free range balls, free instruction, even some free rounds…kid turns 16 or so, goes to the driving range $12 for a bucket of balls, or $40 for 18 without a cart..last time you see that kid….besides teaching kids about golf need to make sure they understand it does cost a good deal to practice and play.
  
  Reply Report comment
Mike

Nov 11, 2018 at 9:16 am

Sad commentary but unfortunately all sports at the school age level are competing against a rising addiction to social media and video games.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi: The 8 best prop bets for the 2024 Masters

Published

6 days ago

Apr 9, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

We’ve finally reached The Masters and excitement is at an all-time high. The world of golf has been fractured for the better part of two years, but for a week at Augusta National, all of the outside noise will disappear. All of the best players in the world will be together seeking to make history.

RELATED: Vincenzi’s 2024 Masters betting preview: Niemann to play star role at Augusta National

In addition to betting on The Masters champion. This is one of the few weeks of the year where there are so many more markets to explore, with value to be had in plenty of different categories.

Throughout this article, I’ll discuss all of my favorite props and players for the 2024 Masters.

Placement Bets:

Tony Finau Top 5 +750 (DraftKings):

I badly wanted to include Tony Finau in my outright betting selections, but I simply ran out of room on my card. Additionally, it’s slightly difficult to see him hitting the putts necessary to win the Masters on back nine on Sunday. However, I do strongly believe he will play great golf this week at Augusta National.

In his past 24 rounds, Finau ranks 4th in Strokes Gained: Approach is always amongst the best drivers of the golf ball in the game. Back in 2019, Finau had a great chance to win The Masters. I expect him to be hanging around over the weekend once again in 2024.

Gary Woodland Top 20 +550 (DraftKings), Gary Woodland to make the cut -110 (DraftKings):

Last season, Gary Woodland had his best ever finish at The Masters in his eleven tries. The 39-year-old finished T14 and played incredibly steady across all four rounds.

In Woodland’s most recent start at the Texas Children’s Houston Open, he struck the ball incredibly well. He led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach (+8.8) and Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (+10.0).

Gary has been working with Butch Harmon and absolutely flushing the ball both in tournaments and during practice.

Woodland appears to be healthy once again and in a great place physically and mentally. If he can build off his impressive performance at Augusta last year, he can place inside the top ten in 2024.

Additionally, the make the cut number on Woodland seems generous considering the number of players who miss the cut will be relatively small this week. Woodland is striking it well enough to make the cut even if he’s hindered by a balky putter once again.

Thorbjorn Olesen Top 20 +400 (FanDuel):

The Thunder Bear, Thorbjorn Olesen, made his Masters debut in 2013 and finished an incredibly impressive T6 for the week. In the two additional starts he’s made at Augusta National since then, the Dane has continued to be incredibly solid, finishing T44 and T21.

This week, Olesen heads into the week playing some good golf. He gained 3.8 strokes on approach and 5.52 strokes around the green at last week’s Valero Texas Open on his way to a strong T14 finish. Back in January, he won the Ras Al Khaimah Championship on the DP World Tour.

Olesen has the skill set to be successful at Augusta and seems primed for a good performance this week.

Top Nationalities:

Sergio Garcia Top Spanish Player +280 (DraftKings):

I believe Sergio Garcia can get into contention this week with the way he’s striking the ball in addition to his good vibes with a refurbished version of the Scotty Cameron that he used at the 1999 PGA Championship at Medinah.

I am slightly concerned about the emotional letdown he may face after losing in a playoff at LIV Miami, but I believe a veteran and former Masters champion should be able to regroup and focus on an event far more meaningful.

This is essentially a tournament head-to-head with Jon Rahm at +280. While Rahm deserves to be respected this week, the history of the lack of success of defending champions at The Masters is difficult to ignore.

Joaquin Niemann Top South American Player -230 (FanDuel):

While I hate paying this much juice, I don’t see a world in which Joaquin Niemann isn’t the top South American this week at The Masters. Joaco comes in playing better golf than anyone in the world not named Scottie Scheffler and has a serious chance to win the green jacket.

He only needs to beat two players: Emiliano Grillo and Camilo Villegas.

Tournament Head-to-Heads:

Justin Thomas -110 over Collin Morikawa

JT isn’t having his best season but is playing a lot better than he is getting credit for at the moment. In the past three months, there are only six players on the PGA Tour who have averaged 1.7 Strokes Gained: Tee to Green or better. Justin Thomas (+1.7) is one of the six and is currently tied with Rory McIlroy (+1.7).

Morikawa, on the other hand, has been extremely poor with his irons, which is incredibly uncharacteristic for him. I can’t help but feel like something is completely off with the two-time major champion.

Tony Finau -110 over Wyndham Clark

I explained in the placement section why I’m so high on Tony Finau this week. With how well he’s striking the ball, it seems as if his floor is extremely high. I’m not sure if he can make the putts to win a green jacket but I believe he will be in the mix similarly to 2019 when Tiger Woods emerged from a crowded pack of contenders.

Clark is a debutant, and while some debutants have had success at The Masters, it certainly poses a challenge. I also don’t believe Augusta National suits Clark as well as some of the other major championship venues.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Masters betting preview: Niemann to play star role at Augusta National

Published

7 days ago

Apr 8, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

It’s been over nine months since we saw Brian Harman parlay a dominant performance at Royal Liverpool into a claret jug. After another major offseason filled with a feud between the PGA Tour and LIV Golf, talks of a merger, and a multitude of questions regarding the future of the game, the golf world is desperate for all of the best players in the world to come together again for a major championship.

We return to Augusta National with excitement at a fever pitch. Scottie Scheffler has separated himself as the best player in the world heading into the Masters. At the moment, the 27-year-old seems to be an unstoppable force. However, questions about Scheffler’s up-and-down putter once again resurfaced as he missed multiple short putts at the Texas Children’s Houston Open including a 5’11” putt to force a playoff with Stephan Jaeger.

Additionally, a handful of the PGA Tour’s top players such as Justin Thomas, Rory McIlroy, Will Zalatoris, Patrick Cantlay, Tommy Fleetwood and Jordan Spieth make their way to Augusta National with their current form in question.

Plenty of LIV golfers may be up to the task of conquering Augusta, but with so much time in between the last two majors, it’s not always easy to decipher how their games will stack up against Scheffler and co.

Last year, some important changes were made at Augusta National. The par-5 13th (Azalea) was lengthened by 35 yards and now measures 545 yards. Last year, Azalea played as the toughest of the four par 5s, and players averaged 4.74 for the week, which was down from 4.85 in 2022. However, eagles, birdies and bogeys were all up, so the lengthening achieved less pars, which equals more excitement.

Without further ado, let’s get into the course breakdown and analyze some important statistics for Augusta National.

Augusta National is now a 7,510-yard par-72 with lightning-fast Bentgrass greens. The course’s primary defenses are the contoured greens, swirling crosswinds, the topography of the course, which creates uneven lies and the small landing areas that golfers will need to hit to avoid tight run-off areas around the greens.

Past Winners at the Masters

2023: Jon Rahm (-12)
2022: Scottie Scheffler (-10)
2021: Hideki Matsuyama (-10)
2020: Dustin Johnson (-20)
2019: Tiger Woods (-13)
2018: Patrick Reed (-15)
2017: Sergio Garcia (-9)
2016: Danny Willett (-5)
2015: Jordan Spieth (-18)
2014: Bubba Watson (-8)
2013: Adam Scott (-9)
2012: Bubba Watson (-10)
2011: Charl Schwartzel (-14)
2010: Phil Mickelson (-16)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value).

Key Stats For Augusta National

Let’s take a look at the six most important metrics at Augusta National and determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds. This should give us a good starting point for building out a betting card.

Strokes Gained: Approach

Approach is historically the most important statistic at Augusta National. The sloping, speedy greens and run-off areas create small landing spots that can be difficult to hit.

Last year, Jon Rahm ranked 6th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach. Overall, five of the past seven winners at Augusta have ranked in the top 6 in the category. Distance helps, but Augusta National is a second-shot golf course.

Total Strokes Gained: Approach in past 24 rounds:

Scottie Scheffler (+1.30)
Corey Conners (+0.99)
Shane Lowry (+0.88)
Tony Finau (+0.85)
Austin Eckroat (+0.85)

Course History

More so than any other course on TOUR, familiarity with Augusta National is crucial. Only one player has ever won the Masters on their first try — Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979. Meanwhile, there are 17 golfers in history who have multiple green jackets.

In most cases, the Masters champion has shown some good form at Augusta in the past. Prior to Scottie Scheffler’s 2022 victory, he finished T19 and T18 in his first two trips to the course. Prior to 2023, Rahm had finished in the top-10 of four of his six starts at The Masters.

Total Strokes Gained: Total at Augusta National in past 36 rounds (per round, minimum eight rounds):

Will Zalatoris (+2.91)
Jon Rahm (+2.28)
Jordan Spieth (+2.22)
Scottie Scheffler (+2.22)
Dustin Johnson (+2.01)
Rory McIlroy (+2.00)
Hideki Matsuyama (+1.90)
Justin Rose (+1.85)
Rickie Fowler (+1.72)
Russell Henley (+1.60)

Par 4 Scoring Average

Since plenty of players can reach the par 5s at Augusta in two, par-4 scoring becomes more important. The golfer who separates themselves on the par 4s will be able to gain ground on the field.

Par 4 Scoring Average in past 24 rounds:

Scottie Scheffler (+3.88)
Chris Kirk (+3.92)
Jordan Spieth (+3.93)
Peter Malnati (+3.93)
Xander Schauffele (+3.93)

Strokes Gained: Around the Green

Golfers with a solid short game tend to fare well at Augusta National. The run-off areas are treacherous, and players will often be scrambling to get up and down.

The majority of players who have won at Augusta National have a great short game and have shown consistent ability to get up and down from tough spots.

Total Strokes Gained: Around the Green in past 24 rounds:

Hideki Matsuyama (+0.71)
Scottie Scheffler (+0.66)
Patrick Reed (+0.61)
Xander Schauffele (+0.53)
Lucas Glover (+0.51)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Augusta National is most definitely a second shot golf course. Golfers can get away with a missed fairway here and there, however, it’s important that the misses with driver aren’t too wide of the target or there is serious trouble to be had.

Total Strokes Gained: Off the Tee in past 24 rounds:

Bryson DeChambeau (+1.04)
Rory McIlroy (+0.85)
Scottie Scheffler (+0.84)
Xander Schauffele (+0.71)
Ludvig Aberg (+0.68)

Strokes Gained Putting: Fast Bentgrass

The USGA calculates that, on average, the greens at Augusta National are the fastest greens in the country. Three-putting is fairly common at Augusta and golfers must be able to combat the speed of the greens with effective lag putting.

Total Strokes Gained: Putting on Fast Bentgrass in past 24 rounds:

Justin Rose (+1.43)
Sahith Theegala (+0.97)
Min Woo Lee (+0.88)
Cameron Smith (+0.70)
Patrick Reed (+0.70)

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the six key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (25%); Course History (16%); Par 4 Scoring Average (10%); SG: Putting on Fast Bentgrass (16%); SG: OTT (16%). and SG: ARG (16%).

Last year, Jon Rahm ranked first in this model

Scottie Scheffler
Xander Schauffele
Hideki Matsuyama
Tony Finau
Justin Thomas
Shane Lowry
Will Zalatoris
Corey Conners
Si Woo Kim
Rory McIlroy
Stephan Jaeger
Jordan Spieth
Chris Kirk
Keegan Bradley
Wyndham Clark
Sahith Theegala
Russell Henley
Collin Morikawa
Matt Fitzpatrick
Patrick Reed

My 2023 Pick:

Jon Rahm (+950) (FanDuel)
A few months ago, I never thought that I’d be able to say that Rahm would be going slightly under the radar heading into the 2023 Masters. It’s not that Rahm has done anything wrong, but both Scheffler and McIlroy have undoubtedly surpassed him as the scorching hot, super-elite, top of the market betting favorite category.

Since his win at Riviera, the Spaniard has finished 39th at Bay Hill, withdrew at The Players Championship, and failed to get out of the group stage at the WGC Dell Match Play. On the other hand, Scheffler won The PLAYERS Championship and McIlroy finished third at the WGC Dell Match Play.

Rahm has made six starts at The Masters and has come in the top-10 in four of them. The 28-year-old has incredible power off the tee, a requirement at Augusta which always plays longer than the scorecard indicates. He’s also incredible around the greens and ranks third in the field in Strokes Gained: Short Game, which is a combination of around the green play and putting, in his past 24 rounds.

As we’ve seen over the years at The Masters, having the ability to chip and putt your way out of difficult situations is a fundamental aspect of getting it done at Augusta National.

While Scheffler has made a strong case to be viewed as the world’s best player, I still believe that title belongs to Rahm. This will be the year Rahmbo joins the ranks of Seve Ballesteros, José María Olazábal, and Sergio Garcia as natives of Spain to don a green jacket.

2024 The Masters Picks

Brooks Koepka +2500 (DraftKings)

In order to win the 2024 Masters, a player will have to go toe-to-toe with Scottie Scheffler, who’s hitting the ball as anyone in golf over the last two seasons. When building a betting card this week, it’s important for me to choose players that I believe can stare Scheffler down on the weekend at Augusta National. Brooks Koepka fits that bill.

Koepka’s lackluster performance at LIV Miami is concerning, but he’s the type of player who can turn it on quickly during the week of a major championship. Although I’d have preferred, he played well last week, I’ll take the odds discount we got as a result of his most recent results.

Prior to LIV Miami, Koepka appeared to be in solid form. He finished in the top twelve in four of five starts on LIV this season. When it comes to the five-time major champion, it’s well known that he has another gear for major championships. Everything he’s done both in the off-season and during the LIV season is to gear up for the year’s first major at Augusta National.

In his past five starts at Augusta National, the 33-year-old has three top-7 finishes, including two runners-up. The two years when he played poorly (2019 and 2020) were when he was nowhere near 100% healthy. All signs point to Brooks being in a great place physically as we enter major season.

Last year, Koepka was the 36 and 54-hole leader prior to letting the green jacket slip away to Jon Rahm. He used the result as a springboard to win his 5th major at Oak Hill at the PGA Championship.

Brooks enters the week looking to get one step closer to achieving the career grand slam and golf fans would be foolish to rule him out.

Joaquin Niemann +2800 (BetRivers)

Full disclosure, I bet Niemann the second he was invited to The Masters back in February at +8000. Although the odds have shortened dramatically since then, I can’t pretend that the Chilean isn’t one of the players who has a real chance to win the 2024 Masters.

While I was speaking with Niemann back in March, he told me how much he loves Augusta National.

“Yeah, it’s a place that I love. I’ve been playing good golf. Especially last year, I wasn’t playing my best golf, and I had a good week there and made triple on 11 that kind of killed me a little bit.

I feel like I’m getting more ready and more prepared every time. My game is getting better too. I know that I’m playing good enough to be in that situation that I can have a chance to win the Masters and it’s all about how I react to that situation.

So yeah, I’m going to prepare myself to be ready for that situation if it happens and I can fight for the title on the Sunday which would be awesome.”

As Niemann alluded to, the Chilean was able to have his best career finishes at The Masters (T16) despite not being in the best form. This year, Niemann comes into the week playing better golf than anyone in the world with the exception of Scottie Scheffler. The 25-year-old has won three times since December and has shown the world why he was regarded as one of the games future stars since he was a teenager.

Historically speaking, Joaco’s win at Riviera a few years back seems to be an indicator of potential success at Augusta National. Fourteen players have won at both historic courses including Hideki Matsuyama, Jon Rahm, Phil Mickelson, Dustin Johnson, Nick Faldo, Tom Watson and Ben Hogan.

Niemann has all the shots to be successful at Augusta National. His low stingers will come in handy on plenty of holes down the stretch and he can work it both ways, playing the high draw or the low fade. He also putts best on Bentgrass greens and likes them fast. Whether PGA Tour or LIV, talent will always reign supreme, and I’ll always bet on that talent.

Cameron Smith (+4000) (FanDuel)

Cameron Smith is another player who we should get an odds discount on based off of the results at LIV Miami. Smith was forced to withdraw prior to the second round due to food poisoning. In my opinion, the number has drifted to a place where I’d consider it a “bet the number” play on the talent.

Smith is a contender for the green jacket anytime he tees it up at Augusta National. The Australian absolutely loves the golf course and has four top-10 finishes in his last six trips to the golf course. In both 2020 and 2022, Smith had a real chance of winning The Masters and came up just short, finishing T2 and T3 in those two tries. In his past 36 rounds, he ranks 4th in Strokes Gained: Total per round at Augusta.

In order to be successful at Augusta National, players must be creative around the greens and be shot makers who have plenty of ways to get around the golf course. Cam has all the shots required to be successful at the course at his touch around the greens will continue to serve him well in his hopes for a green jacket.

Smith is arguably the best putter in the world and has the capability to win a golf tournament on and around the greens. He’s already taken down Rory McIlroy at the home of golf on his way to a claret jug and is one of the few players who can stare down any of the world’s top golfers on the back nine at Augusta National.

Justin Thomas +4000 (FanDuel)

With how he’s been playing since his 2022 PGA Championship win, you may be shocked to see the name “Justin Thomas” in this preview. However, JT has drifted to a place on the odds board where I believe it’s worth taking a shot on the talent of a two-time major champion in his prime.

It’s not all bad for Thomas this season. He finished T6 at the signature Pebble Beach event, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and T12 at the signature Arnold Palmer Invitational. In his last 24 rounds, JT ranks 8th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, 14th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and 29th in Strokes Gained: Putting on fast Bentgrass greens.

Despite missing the cut last season, Thomas has played pretty well at Augusta National. He ranks 13th in Strokes Gained: Total in his past 36 rounds at the course. He finished T4 in 2020, T21 in 2021 and T8 in 2022.

I believe the 2024 edition of The Masters is completely wide open. The past few years has been frustrating for Thomas fans, but I believe his peak form may be a bit closer than people realize.

Sergio Garcia +12000 (FanDuel)

Earlier this season, Garcia dueled with Joaquin Niemann before finally losing on the fourth playoff hole late into the night. Despite the loss, the 44-year-old seemed to gain confidence in his game. The results that followed weren’t spectacular, but in terms of his ball striking he’s shown some flashes of vintage Sergio.

At LIV Miami last week, Garcia played well on a massive golf course, losing in a playoff to Dean Burmester. He continued pumped the ball into the fairway and hit massive iron shot after massive iron shot. He also used a refurbished Scotty Cameron that he used in the 1999 PGA Championship at Medinah. The putter served him incredibly well until he missed a short putt on the 18th hole to win the event. Overall, he gained 7.1 strokes putting at Doral.

Sergio Garcia is once again headed to Augusta National with a chip on his shoulder. Of course, having a chip on the shoulder is nothing new for the fiery Spaniard, but this year, the 2017 Masters Champion will arrive at Augusta with his game clicking on all cylinders.

Sergio winning a second green jacket is seemingly an almost impossible feat, but magical things tend to happen on the hallowed grounds of Augusta National.

Adam Scott +11000 (FanDuel)

Betting Adam Scott over the past handful of years has been a Masters staple for me, and like many traditions, has been a hard one for me to let go of.

Last week, Scott finished T14 at the Valero Texas Open in a windy and difficult week. I believe the wind will be a major factor this week at Augusta National, and the more difficult the tournament plays, the more I favor Scott. Scott also ranks 5th in his past 24 rounds on Strokes Gained: Putting on Fast Bentgrass and has the short game these days that could help him contend in a major.

Since his win in 2013, Scott’s history at The Masters has been spotty. He has some poor finishes alongside a T9 in 2017 and a T18 in 2019. He’s been playing some solid golf this season, finishing T8 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and T19 at the Genesis Invitational.

(All photos in piece belong to LIV Golf)

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Opinion & Analysis

The 22 players who can win the Masters

Published

7 days ago

Apr 8, 2024

Rich Hunt

Since 2013, I have created a filtering process to help determine the players who are most likely to win the green jacket based on criteria that have strongly predictive outcomes to success at Augusta. The list of players that can win at Augusta is usually filtered down to 20-24 players and in that time I have correctly shortlisted every Masters champion.

This includes last year’s winner, Jon Rahm. Even though Rahm essentially walked away with the green jack and did not make it very close, there were some close calls on top of the leaderboard as I had filtered out Phil Mickelson (t-2nd) and Patrick Reed (t-4th) as the LIV Tour is still behind on providing advanced analytics for their tour. Russell Henley was also filtered out and finished t-4th, five strokes from Rahm’s winning score of 276.

If you’re watching at home, the “critical holes” that will likely determine the top finishers will be holes No. 7, 8, 11 and 13. The 11th hole is projected to be the most critical of holes as over the past five Masters the top players have gained nearly a 1.5 strokes for the tournament on that hole alone.

Just like last year’s column I will get the LIV Tour players I’ve filtered out of the way. Since LIV Tour does not provide ShotLink or Trackman data, it’s more of a guessing game as to how certain LIV Tour golfers are playing. I did utilize recent performance as well as performance at Mayakoba and Doral as they were two former PGA Tour courses that have some semblance of crossover to playing Augusta.

Phil Mickelson
Thorbjorn Olesen
Charl Schwartzel
Cameron Smith
Bubba Watson

Admittedly Cameron Smith and Phil Mickelson are hard to leave out, but both have not played well as of late.

Next, I filtered out the amateurs and all first-time professional attendees. The Masters has only been won three times by a first-time attendee: Fuzzy Zoeller was the last to win in 1979. Prior to Zoeller though, it was Horton Smith in the inaugural event in 1934 followed by Gene Sarazen in 1935

Ludvig Aberg
Akshay Bhatia
Wyndham Clark
Eric Cole
Santiago de la Fuente (a)
Nick Dunlap
Austin Eckroat
Stewart Hagestad (a)
Ryo Hisatsune
Lee Hodges
Nicolai Hojgaard
Stephan Jaeger
Jake Knapp
Christo Lamprecht (a)
Peter Malnati
Denny McCarthy
Grayson Murray
Matthieu Pavon
Adam Schenk
Neal Shipley (a)
Jasper Stubbs (a)

Out of the first time invitees the data likes Ludvig Aberg and Eric Cole to play the best at Augusta National.

I also filter out old Masters champions that I do not believe can get into contention anymore.

Fred Couples
Jose Maria Olazabal
Vijay Singh
Mike Weir
Tiger Woods

Recency has a strong predictive value for player performance and missing the cut in the event in the prior week greatly reduces the likelihood of winning the following week compared to players that miss the cut, take a week off, and then play the following week. Therefore I filter out all players that missed the cut at the Valero Texas Open last week.

Byeong Hun An
Harris English
Rickie Fowler
Ryan Fox
Zach Johnson
Tom Kim
Erik van Rooyen
Camilo Villegas

I will also filter out the players that have never made the cut at the Masters:

Kurt Kitayama
Adrian Meronk

A Tradition Unlike Any Other…

Augusta National has traditionally favored longer hitters and even moreso in the past 20 years of the event. Of course there has been exceptions as in 2007 the short hitting Zach Johnson ended up winning the event.

Critics of my filtering system point out Johnson’s victory as a case for short hitters being able to win at Augusta, but they neglect the fact that Johnson’s victory came in historically low temperatures in the 40’s with wind gusts reaching 35 mph. That made the par-5’s almost unreachable in two shots and the course stressed wedge play and short game around the green where Zach had a sizable advantage.
It is projected to rain early on Thursday and then the weather is supposed to be sunny and warm for the rest of the week. It depends on how quickly the course dries up, but if it does dry out fairly quickly that will give the longer hitters the advantage as they will be able to reach certain par-5’s in two shots that the shorter hitters cannot reach if they don’t hit a quality tee shot and there may be par-5’s that some of the long hitters can reach in two shots with a short iron. Therefore I will filter out the following players due to a lack of distance off the tee:

Corey Conners
Lucas Glover
Emiliano Grillo
Brian Harman
Si Woo Kim
Chris Kirk
Shane Lowry
Colin Morikawa
JT Poston
Justin Rose
Sepp Straka

Out of these players the data likes Lowry and Morikawa the most. Both have good history at Augusta and they both just narrowly missed the distance benchmark set in the filter and both are excellent long iron players.

Last year I created a new formula to better determine ball height as Augusta has historically not taken too kindly to a low ball flight. Out of the 5 players filtered out for low ball flight using the new formula the best finish was only t-29th by Si Woo Kim. This year I’ve filtered out the following players.

Matthew Fitzpatrick
Sungjae Im
Luke List
Joaquin Niemann
Justin Thomas

Every year I filter out the poor performers on approach shots from 175-225 yards as Augusta National puts a lot of stress on those shots. Last year I filtered out nine players and three of them missed the cut with only Jordan Spieth finishing in the top-15 (t-4th) as the rest of the players were never a threat.

Here are the golfers I’m filtering out due to poor play from 175-225 yards:

Patrick Cantlay
Cameron Davis
Jason Day
Tommy Fleetwood
Russell Henley
Max Homa
Rory McIlroy
Jordan Spieth
Nick Taylor

Rory had a nice outing at the Valero Texas Open and hit his irons better there, but appears to be struggling with a leftward miss. Other than that, Rory still has the game to win his first green jacket. Henley is usually one of the better iron players on Tour, but he has struggled this season from 175-225 yards and is a short hitter anyway.

I will also filter out Danny Willett as he is coming off injury and making his comeback at the Masters.

That leaves the 22 players that can win the Masters:

Keegan Bradley (150/1)
Sam Burns (60/1)
Bryson DeChambeau (25/1)
Tony Finau (50/1)
Sergio Garcia (100/1)
Adam Hadwin (175/1)
Tyrrell Hatton (80/1)
Viktor Hovland (35/1)
Dustin Johnson (40/1)
Brooks Koepka (16/1)
Min Woo Lee (70/1)
Hideki Matsuyama (20/1)
Taylor Moore (300/1)
Jon Rahm (12/1)
Patrick Reed (80/1)
Xander Schauffele (18/1)
Scottie Scheffler (4/1)
Adam Scott (100/1)
Sahith Theegala (50/1)
Gary Woodland (250/1)
Cameron Young (50/1)
Will Zalatoris (35/1)

Here’s my personal top-10 picks:

Keegan Bradley (150/1)
Sam Burns (60/1)
Bryson DeChambeau (35/1)
Tony Finau (50/1)
Viktor Hovland (35/1)
Dustin Johnson (40/1)
Hideki Matsuyama (20/1)
Jon Rahm (12/1)
Xander Schauffele (18/1)
Scottie Scheffler (4/1)

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