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Impress by fixing these 4 golf fashion flaws

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Golf is hard. And yet, the goal should still be to impress. A quick way to impress is not by changing your scoring abilities but by changing the way you look.

I know, I know, looks are still something that most of you say you couldn’t care less about. Hear me out on this one though, because it is much easier to impress with your looks than it is with your golf game. Trust me, I have worked on my golf game since I was eight, and I coached people on their golf games for years: It is much easier to change looks than your game itself.

Start with these four flaws in your golf fashion game.

Jeans are not the issue

Your favorite jeans with holes in them that don’t fit correctly are the problem.  According to a survey done by Golf Digest, over two-thirds of the golf facilities in the United States now allow jeans. As mainstream style becomes a bigger deal in golf, the trend of jeans being involved will continue to grow. Just like everything else that is stylish, though, there is a time and place for everything. Your jeans with holes in them are not the ones that should be worn on the golf course.

Here are some tips for jeans on the golf course

  • Jeans should be fitted to your body style (not super tight but not baggy either)
  • Proper length jeans should not hide your shoes
  • Jeans should be dark or a little faded
  • Look for lighter weight jeans that have some flex to them

Wear a collared shirt, for crying out loud!

…and now I have officially earned some shanks from the readers. Some of you will point out that Tiger has been wearing a blade shirt. A few things about that, technically that is a collar, Tiger is fit, makes more money then most anyone, and, well, he is Tiger Woods.

Remember this article is about how to impress with your looks while playing golf with others. There is absolutely nothing wrong with a t-shirt, or dare I say a cut-off shirt, in the proper setting, but the golf course is not the proper setting for a non-collared shirt! A collared shirt is going to bring attention up to your neck and face area — and away from the gut.

Get rid of the old ski jacket and learn how to layer

With the weather starting to cool down, this is the year to learn the proper way to layer up so that you stay warm and dry.

First things first: A large coat or a normal jacket is normally not designed for the golf swing. By learning how to layer properly, you will be able to stay warm and dry without wearing something that looks like you are ready to hit the slopes. Layering will also help you look slimmer and impress those around you. Here is a quick “how to” for layering in the cold weather

  • Base layer: This layer is for wicking moisture away from the body. Long underwear will do the trick as it is designed to soak up moisture keeping you dry.
  • Middle layer: This layer is for retaining body heat. A nice polyester fleece or synthetic athletic light jacket are designed to be light and hold in the heat.
  • Outer layer: If needed, this layer is to keep you protected from the rain or wind. A heavy polyester based soft shell will help block the wind and keep you warm while a more costly waterproof shell.

Lastly, respect where you are playing

There are many facilities out there that have a strict dress code of what they expect in the clubhouse and on the golf course. Many places still do not allow denim, and even more of these facilities require you to wear a collared shirt. The worst thing I have seen from golfers who are playing somewhere they have never been is not being respectful of the dress code, or worse, complaining about it. Facilities have different cultures they like to maintain, so be prepared if you are visiting a really nice place to wear a sport coat in the club house. The goal of this article is to show you how to impress, not to look completely out of place.

Hope you enjoyed. As always, play well and look great doing it, or just look great and no one will pay attention to how you play.

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Known as a golf junkie among his friends and family, Bryan Montgomery's passion for this game started at a young age which has blossomed into what is now a 10 year career in the golf industry. Part of the second class to graduate from Eastern Kentucky Universities PGA Golf Management program he has since worked as an assistant golf professional, customer service manager, director of club fitting and merchandise sales, and fitting specialist for Mizuno. Recently he started his own brand, Form Golf which currently focuses on the style and equipment in the golf industry. As a writer for GolfWRX Bryan's primary focus is on style in the golf industry and helping the readers become the best looking member among their group of friends. Please feel free to reach out to Bryan through Twitter or Instagram. Enjoy!

30 Comments

30 Comments

  1. Sean

    Nov 24, 2018 at 12:18 pm

    Here at my club, we allow jeans and non-collared shirts. Honestly, as long as your shirt has sleeves and doesn’t have anything obscene or inappropriate, you’re fine for us.

    While clubs hold up to their policies and traditions, (if they are open to the public) there should be a little variance for general public. Not everyone has 4-pocket slacks and a nice polo. Some people literally have never played or been to a course so they may not have typical golf attire. Why spoil a first or new experience for someone by making them feel that they don’t belong?

  2. Daniel Forbes

    Nov 24, 2018 at 4:38 am

    Lets worry about the arrogant, self righteous golf clubs that still dont allow women to play, rather than stupid trivial crap as attire. Many golf clubs cant afford to turn away every man and his dog just because they r in jeans or a t shirt..

  3. Daniel Forbes

    Nov 24, 2018 at 4:36 am

    Lets worry about the arrogant, up their own arse golf clubs that still dont allow women to play, rather than stupid trivial crap as attire. Many golf clubs cant afford to turn away every man and his dog just because they r in jeans or a t shirt..

  4. Daniel Forbes

    Nov 24, 2018 at 4:31 am

    Please… attire is the least of our problems when there are still arrogant, up their own arses golf clubs that wont allow women.. stupid old pricks that run these clubs need to get over themselves, once they fix that then worry about trivial things like what people wear.

  5. Mike Barnard

    Nov 24, 2018 at 4:06 am

    It’s weird, I think I look ok in my standard golf kit ( my club rules are arrive and leave in jacket collar and tie, draconian but that’s the rule) but strangely now when I see folk off of the course wearing golf gear it looks really bad, logos everywhere , compression fit showing all the lumps and bumps, and just plain stupid looking.
    Time to perhaps just wear less uncool clothes, the game is not attracting new players, looking like a jerk somehow doesn’t appeal…. why is that?

  6. Dave r

    Nov 23, 2018 at 9:44 pm

    Really. Golf shops short on business these days. But I agree dress code is a dress code. And jeans should never be worn on any golf course. RESPECT !

  7. Johnny Penso

    Nov 23, 2018 at 12:55 pm

    Out of respect for the game and it’s traditions, I’ve always dressed appropriately. Golf shirts, clean pants, no jeans, proper golf shoes etc. In an era when it’s ok to wear your pyjamas to the mall I’m sure I come across as a dinosaur to some of the younger kids but I was raised in a different era.

  8. Ray

    Nov 23, 2018 at 12:30 pm

    Within reason, Id let people wear what they like.
    The MUCH bigger issue is people getting a clue on the RULES, including slow play.

    If people respected that rule, and applied just a shade of common sense, we would all be better off.

  9. Chsag

    Nov 23, 2018 at 12:07 pm

    When you get older you realize how much of a scam fashion really is. With pants alone I have seen cuffed pants be fashionable then they were out and no cuffs were the only acceptable pants to wear. Then cuffs were back in and … 10 years later back out again and basically repeat about every 10 years. This generation seems particularly susceptible to fashion statements. I really could not care less about what is deemed fashionable today and wear what I like. And yes, when it gets chilly out I will most certainly wear jeans with a turtleneck and a thermal jacket or sweater.

    • Ray

      Nov 23, 2018 at 12:25 pm

      Try reading his last tip again.
      Sounds like you might be part of the problem if you ask me.

      • Chisag

        Nov 23, 2018 at 12:40 pm

        LOL … I play to a + index and I don’t think there is a “problem” with fashion, because I pay no attention to it.

        • Ray

          Nov 23, 2018 at 12:45 pm

          Oops,A bit sensitive are we?

          Your handicap has clearly no bearing on my comment, but the fact its the first thing you said tells me a lot about how insecure you are.

          • James

            Nov 23, 2018 at 1:01 pm

            I think Ray’s onto something here.

          • Daniel Forbes

            Nov 24, 2018 at 4:27 am

            Ok, so saying you are a “+” handicap makes you more important than a 36 marker… arrogance at its best.

        • James

          Nov 23, 2018 at 1:03 pm

          If you played for the Boston Red Sox would you wear jeans and a tee shirt?

  10. Joe Perez

    Nov 23, 2018 at 11:55 am

    I like to “dress up” for golf. It’s part of the “psych-job” I do on myself to get the endorphins flowing in the brain before the round, increasing the anticipation of playing even more.

  11. Rich Douglas

    Nov 23, 2018 at 12:24 am

    No jeans for me. But I don’t care what you wear. I also don’t care what you say, do, or how you play. None of it, even slow play, has anything to do with me.

    Now, those slow players in the group ahead of us….they better be wearing Kevlar to protect them from flying urethane….

    • Ray

      Nov 23, 2018 at 12:27 pm

      You would care what was said around you if your children were sitting in the cart listening to the usual male BS bravado.
      Way to go leading by example…

  12. coops

    Nov 22, 2018 at 8:42 pm

    Expect complaints about jeans/denim… but apparently a white belt looks just fabulous.

    ¯\_(?)_/¯

  13. Johnny Taylor

    Nov 22, 2018 at 6:15 pm

    No jeans of any kind ever should be allowed on a golf course. And I’m being totally serious.

    • Jamie

      Nov 22, 2018 at 8:21 pm

      Golf is losing players fast enough already. Thanks for your help.

      • James

        Nov 22, 2018 at 8:28 pm

        Jeans are not a good fit for golf other than looking shoddy. In warm weather they are thick and hold in the heat. If your legs perspire a bit then jeans cling. I will go to the range in jeans, but never on the course. A guy can always look shoddy on the range if he hits the ball well. 🙂

      • Johnny Taylor

        Nov 22, 2018 at 9:34 pm

        Golf isn’t losing players because they can’t wear jeans.

    • Ray

      Nov 23, 2018 at 12:28 pm

      OK, so why not?

    • Morty T Fox

      Nov 23, 2018 at 1:07 pm

      Jeans have pockets, and pockets have money.

  14. James

    Nov 22, 2018 at 5:51 pm

    What’s wrong with torn jeans and a slightly soiled tee shirt at the Club 19 Restaurant in the Pebble Beach clubhouse? I thought that was the best way to be civilized and sip a good single-malt scotch.

  15. SV

    Nov 22, 2018 at 5:29 pm

    Jeans with holes should only be worn to work in the yard/garden or work on your car.

  16. Riz

    Nov 22, 2018 at 11:54 am

    On that last point…
    Lest we forget the Letchworth Golf Club black sock fiasco.
    Read the dress code before you go!!
    And don’t whinge on social media if you dont check and are turned away.

    • James

      Nov 22, 2018 at 5:44 pm

      … or have to buy a collared shirt in the pro shop for $120.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open betting preview

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As the Florida swing comes to an end, the PGA Tour makes its way to Houston to play the Texas Children’s Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course.

This will be the fourth year that Memorial Park Golf Course will serve as the tournament host. The event did not take place in 2023, but the course hosted the event in 2020, 2021 and 2022.

Memorial Park is a par-70 layout measuring 7,432 yards and features Bermudagrass greens. Historically, the main defense for the course has been thick rough along the fairways and tightly mown runoff areas around the greens. Memorial Park has a unique setup that features three Par 5’s and five Par 3’s.

The field will consist of 132 players, with the top 65 and ties making the cut. There are some big names making the trip to Houston, including Scottie Scheffler, Wyndham Clark, Tony Finau, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala.

Past Winners at Memorial Park

  • 2022: Tony Finau (-16)
  • 2021: Jason Kokrak (-10)
  • 2020: Carlos Ortiz (-13)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Memorial Park

Let’s take a look at several metrics for Memorial Park to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds:

Strokes Gained: Approach

Memorial Park is a pretty tough golf course. Golfers are penalized for missing greens and face some difficult up and downs to save par. Approach will be key.

Total Strokes Gained: Approach per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.30)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.26)
  3. Keith Mitchell (+0.97) 
  4. Tony Finau (+0.92)
  5. Jake Knapp (+0.84)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Memorial Park is a long golf course with rough that can be penal. Therefore, a combination of distance and accuracy is the best metric.

Total Strokes Gained: Off the Tee per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+0.94)
  2. Kevin Dougherty (+0.93)
  3. Cameron Champ (+0.86)
  4. Rafael Campos (+0.84)
  5. Si Woo Kim (+0.70)

Strokes Gained Putting: Bermudagrass + Fast

The Bermudagrass greens played fairly fast the past few years in Houston. Jason Kokrak gained 8.7 strokes putting on his way to victory in 2021 and Tony Finau gained in 7.8 in 2022.

Total Strokes Gained Putting (Bermudagrass) per round past 24 rounds (min. 8 rounds):

  1. Adam Svensson (+1.27)
  2. Harry Hall (+1.01)
  3. Martin Trainer (+0.94)
  4. Taylor Montgomery (+0.88)
  5. S.H. Kim (+0.86)

Strokes Gained: Around the Green

With firm and undulating putting surfaces, holding the green on approach shots may prove to be a challenge. Memorial Park has many tightly mowed runoff areas, so golfers will have challenging up-and-down’s around the greens. Carlos Ortiz gained 5.7 strokes around the green on the way to victory in 2020.

Total Strokes Gained: Around the Green per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Mackenzie Hughes (+0.76)
  2. S.H. Kim (+0.68)
  3. Scottie Scheffler (+0.64)
  4. Jorge Campillo (+0.62)
  5. Jason Day (+0.60)

Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult

Memorial Park is a long and difficult golf course. This statistic will incorporate players who’ve had success on these types of tracks in the past. 

Total Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.45)
  2. Ben Griffin (+1.75)
  3. Will Zalatoris (+1.73)
  4. Ben Taylor (+1.53)
  5. Tony Finau (+1.42)

Course History

Here are the players who have performed the most consistently at Memorial Park. 

Strokes Gained Total at Memorial Park past 12 rounds:

  1. Tyson Alexander (+3.65)
  2. Ben Taylor (+3.40)
  3. Tony Finau (+2.37)
  4. Joel Dahmen (+2.25)
  5. Patton Kizzire (+2.16)

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (24%) SG: OTT (24%); SG: Putting Bermudagrass/Fast (13%); SG: Long and Difficult (13%); SG: ARG (13%) and Course History (13%)

  1. Scottie Scheffler
  2. Wyndham Clark
  3. Tony Finau
  4. Joel Dahmen
  5. Stephan Jaeger 
  6. Aaron Rai
  7. Sahith Theegala
  8. Keith Mitchell 
  9. Jhonnatan Vegas
  10. Jason Day
  11. Kurt Kitayama
  12. Alex Noren
  13. Will Zalatoris
  14. Si Woo Kim
  15. Adam Long

2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open Picks

Will Zalatoris +2000 (Caesars)

Scottie Scheffler will undoubtedly be difficult to beat this week, so I’m starting my card with someone who I believe has the talent to beat him if he doesn’t have his best stuff.

Will Zalatoris missed the cut at the PLAYERS, but still managed to gain strokes on approach while doing so. In an unpredictable event with extreme variance, I don’t believe it would be wise to discount Zalatoris based on that performance. Prior to The PLAYERS, the 27-year-old finished T13, T2 and T4 in his previous three starts.

Zalatoris plays his best golf on long and difficult golf courses. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the category, but the eye test also tells a similar story. He’s contended at major championships and elevated events in the best of fields with tough scoring conditions.  The Texas resident should be a perfect fit at Memorial Park Golf Club.

Alex Noren +4500 (FanDuel)

Alex Noren has been quietly playing some of his best golf of the last half decade this season. The 41-year-old is coming off back-to-back top-20 finishes in Florida including a T9 at The PLAYERS in his most recent start.

In his past 24 rounds, Noren ranks 21st in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 30th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, 25th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses and 21st in Strokes Gained: Putting on fast Bermudagrass greens.

In addition to his strong recent play, the Swede also has played well at Memorial Park. In 2022, Noren finished T4 at the event, gaining 2.2 strokes off the tee and 7.0 strokes on approach for the week. In his two starts at the course, he’s gained an average of .6 strokes per round on the field, indicating he is comfortable on these greens.

Noren has been due for a win for what feels like an eternity, but Memorial Park may be the course that suits him well enough for him to finally get his elusive first PGA Tour victory.

Mackenzie Hughes +8000 (FanDuel)

Mackenzie Hughes found himself deep into contention at last week’s Valspar Championship before faltering late and finishing in a tie for 3rd place. While he would have loved to win the event, it’s hard to see the performance as anything other than an overwhelming positive sign for the Canadian.

Hughes has played great golf at Memorial Park in the past. He finished T7 in 2020, T29 in 2021 and T16 in 2022. The course fit seems to be quite strong for Hughes. He’s added distance off the tee in the past year or and ranks 8th in the field for apex height, which will be a key factor when hitting into Memorial Park’s elevated greens with steep run-off areas.

In his past 24 rounds, Hughes is the best player in the field in Strokes Gained: Around the Greens. The ability to scramble at this course will be extremely important. I believe Hughes can build off of his strong finish last week and contend once again to cement himself as a President’s Cup consideration.

Akshay Bhatia +8000 (FanDuel)

Akshay Bhatia played well last week at the Valspar and seemed to be in total control of his golf ball. He finished in a tie for 17th and shot an impressive -3 on a difficult Sunday. After struggling Thursday, Akshay shot 68-70-68 in his next three rounds.

Thus far, Bhatia has played better at easier courses, but his success at Copperhead may be due to his game maturing. The 22-year-old has enormous potential and the raw talent to be one of the best players in the world when he figures it all out.

Bhatia is a high upside play with superstar qualities and may just take the leap forward to the next stage of his career in the coming months.

Cameron Champ +12000 (FanDuel)

Cameron Champ is a player I often target in the outright betting market due to his “boom-or-bust” nature. It’s hard to think of a player in recent history with three PGA Tour wins who’s been as inconsistent as Champ has over the course of his career.

Despite the erratic play, Cam Champ simply knows how to win. He’s won in 2018, 2019 and 2021, so I feel he’s due for a win at some point this season. The former Texas A&M product should be comfortable in Texas and last week he showed us that his game is in a pretty decent spot.

Over his past 24 rounds, Champ ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 30th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses. Given his ability to spike at any given time, Memorial Park is a good golf course to target Champ on at triple digit odds.

Robert MacIntyre +12000 (FanDuel)

The challenge this week is finding players who can possibly beat Scottie Scheffler while also not dumping an enormous amount of money into an event that has a player at the top that looks extremely dangerous. Enter McIntyre, who’s another boom-or-bust type player who has the ceiling to compete with anyone when his game is clicking on all cylinders.

In his past 24 rounds, MacIntyre ranks 16th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 17th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and 10th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses.

MacIntyre’s PGA Tour season has gotten off to a slow start, but he finished T6 in Mexico, which is a course where players will hit driver on the majority of their tee shots, which is what we will see at Memorial Park. Texas can also get quite windy, which should suit MacIntyre. Last July, the Scot went toe to toe with Rory McIlroy at the Scottish Open before a narrow defeat. It would take a similar heroic effort to compete with Scheffler this year in Houston.

Ryan Moore +15000 (FanDuel)

Ryan Moore’s iron play has been absolutely unconscious over his past few starts. At The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field, he gained 6.1 strokes on approach and last week at Copperhead, he gained 9.0 strokes on approach.

It’s been a rough handful of years on Tour for the 41-year-old, but he is still a five-time winner on the PGA Tour who’s young enough for a career resurgence. Moore has chronic deterioration in a costovertebral joint that connects the rib to the spine, but has been getting more consistent of late, which is hopefully a sign that he is getting healthy.

Veterans have been contending in 2024 and I believe taking a flier on a proven Tour play who’s shown signs of life is a wise move at Memorial Park.

 

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Why the race to get better at golf might be doing more harm than good

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B.F. Skinner was one of the most important psychologists of the 20th century, developing the foundation of the development of reinforcement, and in doing so, creating the concept of behaviorism. In simple terms, this means that we are conditioned by our habits. In practical terms, it explains the divide between the few and far between elite instructors and college coaches.

To understand the application, let’s quickly review one of B.F. Skinner’s most important experiments; superstitions in the formation of behavior by pigeons. In this experiment, food was dispensed to pigeons at random intervals. Soon, according to Skinner, the pigeons began to associate whatever action they were doing at the time of the food being dispensed. According to Skinner, this conditioned that response and soon, they simply haphazardly repeated the action, failing to distinguish between cause and correlation (and in the meantime, looking really funny!).

Now, this is simply the best way to describe the actions of most every women’s college golf coach and too many instructors in America. They see something work, get positive feedback and then become conditioned to give the feedback, more and more, regardless of if it works (this is also why tips from your buddies never work!).

Go to a college event, particularly a women’s one, and you will see coaches running all over the place. Like the pigeons in the experiment, they have been conditioned into a codependent relationship with their players in which they believe their words and actions, can transform a round of golf. It is simply hilarious while being equally perturbing

In junior golf, it’s everywhere. Junior golf academies make a living selling parents that a hysterical coach and over-coaching are essential ingredients in your child’s success.

Let’s be clear, no one of any intellect has any real interest in golf — because it’s not that interesting. The people left, including most coaches and instructors, carve out a small fiefdom, usually on the corner of the range, where they use the illusion of competency to pray on people. In simple terms, they baffle people with the bullshit of pseudo-science that they can make you better, after just one more lesson.

The reality is that life is an impromptu game. The world of golf, business, and school have a message that the goal is being right. This, of course, is bad advice, being right in your own mind is easy, trying to push your ideas on others is hard. As a result, it is not surprising that the divorce rate among golf professionals and their instructors is 100 percent. The transfer rate among college players continues to soar, and too many courses have a guy peddling nefarious science to good people. In fact, we do at my course!

The question is, what impact does all this have on college-age and younger kids? At this point, we honestly don’t know. However, I am going to go out on a limb and say it isn’t good.

Soren Kierkegaard once quipped “I saw it for what it is, and I laughed.” The actions of most coaches and instructors in America are laughable. The problem is that I am not laughing because they are doing damage to kids, as well as driving good people away from this game.

The fact is that golfers don’t need more tips, secrets, or lessons. They need to be presented with a better understanding of the key elements of golf. With this understanding, they can then start to frame which information makes sense and what doesn’t. This will emancipate them and allow them to take charge of their own development.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Valspar Championship betting preview: Elite ballstrikers to thrive at Copperhead

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The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2024 Valspar Championship.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermudagrass greens overseeded with POA. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 16, 17 and 18 — also known as the “Snake Pit” — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.

The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. The field this week is solid and is a major improvement over last year’s field that felt the impact of players skipping due to a handful of “signature events” in a short span of time. 

Past Winners at Valspar Championship

  • 2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
  • 2022: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
  • 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
  • 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
  • 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
  • 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Copperhead

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can’t be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)

  1. Tony Finau (+.90)
  2. Nick Taylor (+.81)
  3. Justin Thomas (+.77)
  4. Greyson Sigg (+.69)
  5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+.67)

2. Good Drive %

The long hitters can be a bit limited here due to the tree-lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important, but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.

Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+91.3%) 
  2. Zach Johnson (+91.1%)
  3. Sam Ryder (+90.5%)
  4. Ryan Moore (+90.4%)
  5. Aaron Rai (+89.7%)

3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1.32)
  2. Keith Mitchell (+1.29)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.24)
  4. Cameron Young (+1.17) 
  5. Doug Ghim (+.95)

4. Bogey Avoidance

With the conditions likely to be difficult, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, oftentimes the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.

Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.

Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+9.0)
  2. Xander Schauffele (+9.3)
  3. Austin Cook (+9.7) 
  4. Chesson Hadley (+10.0)
  5. Greyson Sigg (+10.2)

5. Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions

Conditions will be tough this week at Copperhead. I am looking for golfers who can rise to the occasion if the course plays as difficult as it has in the past.

Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1,71) 
  2. Min Woo Lee (+1.39)
  3. Cameron Young (+1.27)
  4. Jordan Spieth (+1.08)
  5. Justin Suh (+.94)

6. Course History

That statistic will tell us which players have played well at Copperhead in the past.

Course History Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+3.75) 
  2. Sam Burns (+2.49)
  3. Davis Riley (+2.33)
  4. Matt NeSmith (+2.22)
  5. Jordan Spieth (+2.04)

The Valspar Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Good Drive % (15%), SG: BS (20%), Bogeys Avoided (13%), Course History (13%) Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions (12%).

  1. Xander Schauffele
  2. Doug Ghim
  3. Victor Perez
  4. Greyson Sigg
  5. Ryan Moore
  6. Tony Finau
  7. Justin Thomas
  8. Sam Ryder
  9. Sam Burns
  10. Lucas Glover

2024 Valspar Championship Picks

Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)

Justin Thomas will be disappointed with his finish at last week’s PLAYERS Championship, as the past champion missed the cut despite being in some decent form heading into the event. Despite the missed cut, JT hit the ball really well. In his two rounds, the two-time major champion led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach per round.

Thomas has been up and down this season. He’s missed the cut in two “signature events” but also has finishes of T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T6 at the Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am and T3 at the American Express. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in the field.

Thomas loves Copperhead. In his last three tries at the course, he’s finished T13, T3 and T10. Thomas would have loved to get a win at a big event early in the season, but avoidable mistakes and a balky putter have cost him dearly. I believe a trip to a course he loves in a field he should be able to capitalize on is the right recipe for JT to right the ship.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (FanDuel)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is playing spectacular golf in the 2024 season. He finished 2nd at the American Express, T20 at Pebble Beach and T24 at the Genesis Invitational before finishing T13 at last week’s PLAYERS Championship.

In his past 24 rounds, the South African ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 26th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. Bezuidenhout managed to work his way around TPC Sawgrass last week with minimal damage. He only made five bogeys in the entire week, which is a great sign heading into a difficult Copperhead this week.

Bezuidenhout is winless in his PGA Tour career, but certainly has the talent to win on Tour. His recent iron play tells me that this week could be a breakthrough for the 35-year-old who has eyes on the President’s Cup.

Doug Ghim +8000 (FanDuel)

Doug Ghim has finished in the top-16 of his past five starts. Most recently, Ghim finished T16 at The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field.

In his past 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 5th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. In terms of his fit for Copperhead, the 27-year-old ranks 12th in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions, making him a great fit for the course.

Ghim has yet to win on Tour, but at one point he was the top ranked Amateur golfer in the world and played in the 2017 Arnold Palmer Cup and 2017 Walker Cup. He then won the Ben Hogan award for the best male college golfer in 2018. He certainly has the talent, and there are signals aplenty that his talent in ready to take him to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour.

Sepp Straka +8000 (BetRivers)

Sepp Straka is a player who’s shown he has the type of game that can translate to a difficult Florida golf course. The former Presidents Cup participant won the 2022 Honda Classic in tough conditions and should thrive with a similar test at Copperhead.

It’s been a slow 2024 for Straka, but his performance last week at the PLAYERS Championship surely provides some optimism. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach as well as 1.88 strokes off the tee. The tee-to-green game Straka showed on a course with plenty of danger demonstrates that he can stay in control of his golf ball this week.

It’s possible that the strong performance last week was an outlier, but I’m willing to bet on a proven winner in a weaker field at a great number.

Victor Perez +12000 (FanDuel)

Victor Perez is no stranger to success in professional golf. The Frenchman has three DP World Tour wins including a Rolex Series event. He won the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, as well as the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which are some big events.

Perez earned his PGA Tour card this season and enters the week playing some fantastic golf. He finished in a tie for 16th in Florida at the Cognizant Classic and then tied for third in his most recent start at the Puerto Rico Open.

In his past 24 rounds in the field, Perez ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 1oth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Good Drive % and 15th in Bogey Avoidance.

Perez comes in as a perfect fit for Copperhead and offers serious value at triple-digit odds.

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