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Is it legal to take a “breakfast ball” on the first tee? Here’s what the Rules of Golf say

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A mulligan is allowed at the first hole. That is a fact…at least according to a participant at a recent rules evening I conducted. Let me tell you what happened, because, shockingly, he might be right.

As always, I explained to the participants what a mulligan is. I have done this for many years, and it is probably the one “rule” most people tend to know. This is surprising, since it is the only rule we talk about that is not found in the rule book!

When I told the participants that evening that a mulligan is never allowed, a person raised his hand. I think there were around 100 of us. He told me very calmly about a recent episode he was involved in.

Person: “Brian, that was not what I did.”

Me: “What do you mean?”

Person: “I did not take a free ‘reload.”‘

Me (with a smile): “OK. So then what did you do?”

Person: “Brian this is what happened. Listen carefully. I played a very poor shot from the teeing ground on the first tee. It made me really sad. I therefore decided to stop the round. I didn’t want to play anymore. But you know what? 10 seconds later I realized I wanted to play again! I love golf! So therefore I placed a ball on a tee, and I started a new round of golf . I then played my first stroke in that new round of golf. Therefore, it was not a mulligan, rather it was a completely new round of golf!”

How would you answer this person? Any idea? Well let me tell you what my answer was:

“Well…ehh…you cannot…I mean…it is not fair…eeeeh…if you really want to play…eeh…“

Not really a great answer! Of course, I desperately began to read the rules book to find out what it says about when you are allowed to stop a round. But it does not say. So, as far as I’ve seen in the rules book, there is no answer.

The only help seems to be in Rule 1-4, that states

“If any point a dispute is not covered by the Rules, the decision should be made in accordance with equity”.

Well that does not give you much help. Maybe you could argue, that under Rule 1-4 it would be most fair, that — in the situation mentioned above — the player was playing under stroke and distance, and therefore was playing his third stroke from the teeing ground.

But I don’t know for sure.

What do you think?

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I am founder of "The Oswald Academy", which has only one purpose: To teach in the Rules of Golf. My hope is to make the Rules of Golf interesting and easy to understand. I am publishing Rules Books, conducting seminars, letterboxes, writing blogs, publishing "The Oswald Rules School" (videos) and much more. I live in New York, but I was born in Denmark. I am a former lawyer, and have two kids - and one wife.

58 Comments

58 Comments

  1. mark

    Oct 15, 2018 at 3:24 pm

    A Mulligan is only an issue if you are competing for score or plaing for money. A Mulligan is a free stroke. I am not inclined to play a Mulligan, but I don’t begrudge a playing partner or opponent his, as long as he is willing to give me one in my pocket. So the way I prefer to play is: 4 players hit their balls off the first tee. Anyone can take a first tee Mulligan, but if anyone takes a Mulligan, everyone who doesn’t take a Mulligan on the first tee has one in his pocket, which can be used anytime during the round, but only on a tee box. If no one takes a Mulligan on the first tee box, then that ends use of Mulligans by anyone. On the other hand, if we are not competing or betting, then you can re-hit whenever you want, take gimmes or re-putt whenever you want and card any score you want, as long as you aren’t slowing anyone down.

  2. pete

    Oct 1, 2018 at 7:13 pm

    I can see the logic of taking a mulligan on the first hole. For most of us, we show up to the course 10 minutes before a tee time, barely have a chance to get loose, before they announce us to be on the tee 5 minutes early. Theres a reason why professionals spend 30 minutes on the range before they tee off. Not that I’m in any way comparing myself to a professional golfer, but it is very unfair to ones body to walk up to the first tee, without first having eased into your full swing during a warmup and expect to pipe one down the middle without either a. injuring yourself, or b. hitting a very poor shot. And for many of us, the first tee jitters are too much to overcome and we need to get that awful shot out of the way before we can relax. I havent taken a mulligan since I was a kid, but I can see why people do it. If I didn’t have another group waiting behind me, I would consider it, on the first tee only.

  3. brett

    Sep 29, 2018 at 2:49 pm

    Men love golf….. women hate men….

  4. Shep

    Sep 24, 2018 at 4:55 pm

    Why is the value of a tee shot on the first hole different than any other hole? Either take a mulligan on any hole or don’t take one at all. Personally, I don’t like mulligans. It’s no different than getting an extra strike in baseball or an extra shot in basketball. I’m not sure why a bad shot on the first hole warrants a redo but not other holes. Just play golf. It’s fun regardless of whether you hit a good shot on the first tee.

  5. Jalan

    Sep 21, 2018 at 11:07 pm

    I think that is one of the dumbest comments I’ve heard in golf. What happens if he doesn’t like the first shot on the second round? Quit and start a new round? Keep quitting and starting new rounds ’til he hits one he likes?

    What if he happens to hit another bad shot on the 2nd tee? Quit and go back to the first tee to start over. We’ll be here all day. Any civilized club would kill this idiot.

  6. Lovejoy

    Sep 20, 2018 at 10:59 am

    How can you teach golf rules when you display such shameful ignorance?

  7. Paul

    Sep 19, 2018 at 11:45 pm

    No range practice before? Yep, don’t care, hitting two shots.

  8. Stixman

    Sep 19, 2018 at 5:18 am

    Do you expect influence to operate from the public upwards, or from the ‘leadership’ downwards? The Rules of Golf should operate from the Players upwards and the Leadership should be reflecting what is acceptable and expected by the majority.
    What seems to be coming out of America generally is just this. The Public morality isn’t what it was and this is reflected in golf leadership and elsewhere. Shame, but ‘it is what it is’.

  9. ChipNRun

    Sep 17, 2018 at 8:10 pm

    Strange occurrence.

    My group was playing a course with a difficult, watery Par 5 for the first hole.It was a semi-crowded Friday morning. I popped up a high, sub-200 yard drive that hit the center of the fairway. Partner 1 found the first cut of rough in the open. Two other guys, however, found trouble. Partner 2 sliced a ball deep into the treeline, and Partner 3 hit a low pull into the bullrushes near the water hazard.

    The starter jumped up and said, “You and you, hit again no penalty. And doan’ even look for those first shots… You need to get movin'”.

    Does golf have a special rule on Mulligans Against Your Will? Just wondering.

    • James

      Sep 18, 2018 at 5:06 pm

      Funny. I just know those guys looked for their balls. Did you see if they followed the starter’s advice?

      • ChipNRun

        Sep 19, 2018 at 5:02 pm

        Sorry. I was so happy to be in the fairway I didn’t notice.

  10. A. Commoner

    Sep 17, 2018 at 2:19 pm

    Legal? Are we in a court room?

    • James

      Sep 17, 2018 at 5:30 pm

      I can see this issue going before the Supreme Court. But what do they know? None of them play golf.

  11. Halu

    Sep 12, 2018 at 12:19 pm

    If you have some sort of match/stroke play game with your buddies it’s fine as long as it is discussed prior to the 1st person to tee off.

    At the end of the day…. “Johnny Short Ball” is still going to tee-up another ball on the 1st tee just because he ‘usually doesn’t do that’. If you’re out there to have fun and have a few pops, do whatever you want to do… just don’t hold me up.

  12. Arthy

    Sep 10, 2018 at 5:23 am

    Doesn’t meet the conditions of Rule 6.8.

  13. Mike

    Sep 9, 2018 at 6:24 pm

    As long as you don’t hold me up at all (& I’m serious…at all), I don’t care if you redo that 3 footer you missed. Or that drive in the woods. But please…enter your score w/ ALL the “muilligans / retries”. I’m a 16 index, & there’s NOTHING I love more than playing a $ match getting strokes from a 10 index who really a 16 (like me).

    However, the cool thing about golf is that among your buds you can adjust the rules any way you see fit. In my league there’s no OB (stroke & distance) but everyone plays by that same rule. But in our annual course championship, all USGA rules are applied & everything is putted out. That’s the beauty of the game, the flexibility.

  14. Travis

    Sep 9, 2018 at 2:41 pm

    Who cares? All these people talking about going in and paying for another round… seriously? You people are in no way shape or form anyone I would want to play with. I bet you’d make him putt out that 6-inch putt too, right?

    It’s golf, it’s a GAME, none of us will every be Touring Professionals. Take a breakfast ball, I don’t care, just have fun and enjoy. As long as you’re keeping up with the pace of play then just enjoy yourself.

    People need to get their sticks out of their a**.

    • Tiger Noods

      Sep 10, 2018 at 3:23 am

      You’re missing the point. No one cares if they take a breakfast ball. It’s the idea that it’s somehow ok’d in the rulebook that’s asinine.

  15. Pete McGill

    Sep 7, 2018 at 1:18 am

    You want to start a new round? No worries. Just wait until the rest of finish this round…

    • Benny

      Sep 29, 2018 at 11:18 am

      Hahahahaha, awesome!
      Oh and BTW pay ip to for losing that first round…
      Now how about a press?

  16. Dave r

    Sep 6, 2018 at 8:55 pm

    Whole lot of nothing about nothing.

  17. DIG

    Sep 6, 2018 at 12:04 pm

    Practice on the course before the game is allowed in match-play, so the first drive could be called a practice shot, and the mulligan the first shot of the match. No practice during the round of course. So only applicable on the first tee. And this would not apply in stroke play.
    Just a thought.

    • JP

      Sep 6, 2018 at 2:34 pm

      Shouldn’t it be announced prior to hitting the ball if it’s going to be a practice shot?

      If not, you can end your round, that’s fine. Go pay for your next round and get the next available tee time. And hopefully, it’s not with my group.

    • Nigel Kent

      Sep 6, 2018 at 2:57 pm

      In Matchplay , a poor tee-shot towards trouble ( water or O/B )can either be allowed to stand , or cancelled . Both by the opponent , not the player who hit the shot .

  18. Darrin

    Sep 6, 2018 at 10:44 am

    Playing with buddies. No warm up at range prior to round. We all look at each other on first tee. Low ball/low total? Sure. Indiviual games? Skins? sure/yes. Greenies, sandys? Yep.. Two off of #1. Yep. Is that a new driver? yeah it’s awesome. Did your wife pick out those shorts? “F” you.

    Good luck.

  19. CG

    Sep 5, 2018 at 6:39 am

    I’m sure this has nothing to do with a golf tournament using the official rules of golf to govern play so, this is much ado about nothing. All groups agree to their own set of rules.

  20. Julio da Cal

    Sep 5, 2018 at 4:19 am

    I didnt read all coments but here is mine.

    I would accept that… if he would pay another fee.

    • JP

      Sep 6, 2018 at 2:37 pm

      And go back to the pro shop and get the next available tee time.

      • kevin

        Sep 10, 2018 at 3:38 pm

        so if the tee sheet is open and you are playing at the club where you are a member….

        the entire point of the article is to point out the rules don’t specify how to handle this situation for handicap reporting purposes.

    • namthanh

      Sep 12, 2018 at 2:52 am

      Well, this might be one of those clubs that does not fit for everyone, I might be lucky enough to be in the general targeted audience. Although it may not be the greatest club, but it’s not too bad either.

  21. CJ

    Sep 5, 2018 at 12:55 am

    Abandon the round after one shot? Sure, just pay off the Nasau then start the next round, same wager.

  22. MF

    Sep 5, 2018 at 12:26 am

    If you are going to use the 1st tee as your warm up then make sure you announce whether or not the next shot will count or not before you hit it. You don’t get to hit the shot and then decide. If you want to make up excuses to cheat then you are only hurting yourself. You might sound like a better golfer but you’re not and everyone knows it.

  23. Tommy

    Sep 4, 2018 at 11:30 pm

    This is really great news for me!

  24. Law Prof

    Sep 4, 2018 at 9:31 pm

    I have a friend who’s a former D1 tennis player and still competes in pro-ams, he has a rule he calls “First one in” for tennis; that is, the first service at the start of the game, the server gets to keep trying until he/she gets the ball in, then play has begun. While it may not technically be legal in golf, I think that’s a great rule–multiple mulligans on the first tee until you get one you like, then the round commences. That seems in keeping with “equity” in Rule 1-4, taking into consideration you’re usually going cold off the first tee. And for those prigs who say “Well that’s what driving ranges are for, warm up there!”, I say, for those of us who have families and jobs and wives who start looking mighty hard at you for taking time off to play even 9 holes in the first place, you can stick that driving range in your ear, I don’t have time .

    • Iain Laing

      Sep 5, 2018 at 2:33 am

      That really is going to speed up play,,, for goodness sake imagine the backlog

      • Harry

        Sep 6, 2018 at 3:22 pm

        How many shots are we talking about? One? Or all of them? No difference in time than hitting a provisional. If the group agrees then who cares?

  25. John

    Sep 4, 2018 at 8:56 pm

    If he didn’t leave the course then can’t see how he can stop his round on the first tee…..then restart it again.
    (By his standards, he could stop his round after every bad shot, then restart a new round…) I.e. 2 or 20 rounds into one…
    What then is the definition of stopping and/or leaving a course..?
    The plot thickens ..

    • Joe

      Sep 6, 2018 at 1:16 pm

      Just playing the other side. But if you “quit” on say hole 6 then to restart you would need to go back and start at the first tee. So by this “ruling” it really only works on the first tee ball. As stated above from others I’m fine with it if you pay off any bets from the first match you just forfeited.

  26. Paul

    Sep 4, 2018 at 8:33 pm

    I always say “2 off the 1st.” As has been mentioned, most of the time I show up with zero time to spare before the tee time. Therefore I can’t hit balls on the range, and many of the courses I play don’t even have a range (small munis). So if your first tee shot sucks, tee it up and go again. I don’t play for $, just for fun.

  27. nyguy

    Sep 4, 2018 at 7:00 pm

    unless your playing a tournament, who cares… you probably just showed up with no range time, or days of playing the course. I’d like to see pros or anyone playing a tournament, show up and have there first swing be at the 1 tee box…

    • Nihonsei

      Sep 6, 2018 at 11:46 am

      John Daly has often, according to legend…straight from the bar to the first tee!

  28. Al

    Sep 4, 2018 at 4:12 pm

    Dont put money on the outcome, and then who cares, give putts fron 3 feet give mulligans, move balls from under trees bushes, shrubs, etc. however, put money, something, on the outcome,and that all changes. If you quit after your 1st bad tee shot you lose the round and pay up. You can still play, but dont expect to win, when you quit earlier.

  29. Malcolm MacLaren

    Sep 4, 2018 at 3:57 pm

    As long as you declare the first ball a “breakfast ball” prior to hitting it. If not, your second off the tee should be your second shot provided the first ball didn’t go out of bounds. This should only apply to the first tee though and not later in the round.

  30. Iutodd

    Sep 4, 2018 at 3:39 pm

    If there is no range for a proper warmup I don’t see what the big deal is as long as it’s agreed upon by your group and you don’t make a big deal out of it or take a long time.

    Also if there is no warmup – club down and move up a tee on the first one.

  31. jt

    Sep 4, 2018 at 3:34 pm

    There are times I’d like to play a “Lunch ball” and a “Dinner ball”. Anyone up for a “Dessert ball”?

    • od

      Sep 4, 2018 at 7:42 pm

      No but I’d be up for a highball!

      • Benny

        Sep 29, 2018 at 11:26 am

        I ised to be up for an 8 ball…. then most times another after a long night…. but those days are well behind me. Lets play golf!

  32. Rich

    Sep 4, 2018 at 1:22 pm

    It’s a very unsportsmanlike move. 1-4 should cover it, along with “The Spirit of the Game” in the Etiquette section.

  33. Matt

    Sep 4, 2018 at 1:16 pm

    So did the guy go and pay another greens fee?

  34. JT

    Sep 4, 2018 at 12:39 pm

    Yeah, I once saw Phil Mickelson take a breakfast ball on the first hole at Pebble Beach.

  35. TwoLegsMcManus

    Sep 4, 2018 at 12:03 pm

    I believe the PGA Tour has a condition of competition that a player can’t play a round of golf on the same day as a competition round. (Not positive, but I think I read that somewhere).

    If any competition had that rule, the first hole mulligan / abandoned round would be easily ruled upon.

    Aside from competition, first-hole mulligans are understandable. We presume competitors visit the range before a round. With busy schedules, we can’t always do that before recreational rounds and hit the first tee cold – often after a long drive in traffic…

  36. Acemandrake

    Sep 4, 2018 at 12:01 pm

    “Spirit of the game”, anyone? Or how about “intent”?

    “If it feels like cheating then it probably is”?

    • Relaxalittle

      Sep 12, 2018 at 10:53 am

      “Maybe not everyone plays strict to the rules because in the end it doesn’t really matter”
      “Spend more time playing golf and less time dictating how others should play golf”

      • SelahVi

        Sep 12, 2018 at 7:08 pm

        He is answering a question about the rules. If someone doesn’t care what the rules say about this scenario, I am not sure why they would care about the contents of this article or the comments.

  37. JS

    Sep 4, 2018 at 12:00 pm

    I think your participant should read the rules again:

    2-1. General
    A match consists of one side playing against another over a stipulated
    round unless otherwise decreed by the Committee.

    3-1. General; Winner
    A stroke-play competition consists of competitors completing each
    hole of a stipulated round or rounds and, for each round, returning
    a score card on which there is a gross score for each hole. Each
    competitor is playing against every other competitor in the competition.

    Stipulated Round
    The “stipulated round’’ consists of playing the holes of the course in their
    correct sequence, unless otherwise authorized by the Committee. The
    number of holes in a stipulated round is 18 unless a smaller number is
    authorized by the Committee. As to extension of stipulated round in match
    play, see Rule 2-3.

    33-1. Conditions; Waiving Rule
    The Committee must establish the conditions under which a
    competition is to be played.
    The Committee has no power to waive a Rule of Golf.
    The number of holes of a stipulated round must not be reduced once
    play has commenced for that round.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open betting preview

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As the Florida swing comes to an end, the PGA Tour makes its way to Houston to play the Texas Children’s Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course.

This will be the fourth year that Memorial Park Golf Course will serve as the tournament host. The event did not take place in 2023, but the course hosted the event in 2020, 2021 and 2022.

Memorial Park is a par-70 layout measuring 7,432 yards and features Bermudagrass greens. Historically, the main defense for the course has been thick rough along the fairways and tightly mown runoff areas around the greens. Memorial Park has a unique setup that features three Par 5’s and five Par 3’s.

The field will consist of 132 players, with the top 65 and ties making the cut. There are some big names making the trip to Houston, including Scottie Scheffler, Wyndham Clark, Tony Finau, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala.

Past Winners at Memorial Park

  • 2022: Tony Finau (-16)
  • 2021: Jason Kokrak (-10)
  • 2020: Carlos Ortiz (-13)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Memorial Park

Let’s take a look at several metrics for Memorial Park to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds:

Strokes Gained: Approach

Memorial Park is a pretty tough golf course. Golfers are penalized for missing greens and face some difficult up and downs to save par. Approach will be key.

Total Strokes Gained: Approach per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.30)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.26)
  3. Keith Mitchell (+0.97) 
  4. Tony Finau (+0.92)
  5. Jake Knapp (+0.84)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Memorial Park is a long golf course with rough that can be penal. Therefore, a combination of distance and accuracy is the best metric.

Total Strokes Gained: Off the Tee per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+0.94)
  2. Kevin Dougherty (+0.93)
  3. Cameron Champ (+0.86)
  4. Rafael Campos (+0.84)
  5. Si Woo Kim (+0.70)

Strokes Gained Putting: Bermudagrass + Fast

The Bermudagrass greens played fairly fast the past few years in Houston. Jason Kokrak gained 8.7 strokes putting on his way to victory in 2021 and Tony Finau gained in 7.8 in 2022.

Total Strokes Gained Putting (Bermudagrass) per round past 24 rounds (min. 8 rounds):

  1. Adam Svensson (+1.27)
  2. Harry Hall (+1.01)
  3. Martin Trainer (+0.94)
  4. Taylor Montgomery (+0.88)
  5. S.H. Kim (+0.86)

Strokes Gained: Around the Green

With firm and undulating putting surfaces, holding the green on approach shots may prove to be a challenge. Memorial Park has many tightly mowed runoff areas, so golfers will have challenging up-and-down’s around the greens. Carlos Ortiz gained 5.7 strokes around the green on the way to victory in 2020.

Total Strokes Gained: Around the Green per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Mackenzie Hughes (+0.76)
  2. S.H. Kim (+0.68)
  3. Scottie Scheffler (+0.64)
  4. Jorge Campillo (+0.62)
  5. Jason Day (+0.60)

Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult

Memorial Park is a long and difficult golf course. This statistic will incorporate players who’ve had success on these types of tracks in the past. 

Total Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.45)
  2. Ben Griffin (+1.75)
  3. Will Zalatoris (+1.73)
  4. Ben Taylor (+1.53)
  5. Tony Finau (+1.42)

Course History

Here are the players who have performed the most consistently at Memorial Park. 

Strokes Gained Total at Memorial Park past 12 rounds:

  1. Tyson Alexander (+3.65)
  2. Ben Taylor (+3.40)
  3. Tony Finau (+2.37)
  4. Joel Dahmen (+2.25)
  5. Patton Kizzire (+2.16)

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (24%) SG: OTT (24%); SG: Putting Bermudagrass/Fast (13%); SG: Long and Difficult (13%); SG: ARG (13%) and Course History (13%)

  1. Scottie Scheffler
  2. Wyndham Clark
  3. Tony Finau
  4. Joel Dahmen
  5. Stephan Jaeger 
  6. Aaron Rai
  7. Sahith Theegala
  8. Keith Mitchell 
  9. Jhonnatan Vegas
  10. Jason Day
  11. Kurt Kitayama
  12. Alex Noren
  13. Will Zalatoris
  14. Si Woo Kim
  15. Adam Long

2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open Picks

Will Zalatoris +2000 (Caesars)

Scottie Scheffler will undoubtedly be difficult to beat this week, so I’m starting my card with someone who I believe has the talent to beat him if he doesn’t have his best stuff.

Will Zalatoris missed the cut at the PLAYERS, but still managed to gain strokes on approach while doing so. In an unpredictable event with extreme variance, I don’t believe it would be wise to discount Zalatoris based on that performance. Prior to The PLAYERS, the 27-year-old finished T13, T2 and T4 in his previous three starts.

Zalatoris plays his best golf on long and difficult golf courses. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the category, but the eye test also tells a similar story. He’s contended at major championships and elevated events in the best of fields with tough scoring conditions.  The Texas resident should be a perfect fit at Memorial Park Golf Club.

Alex Noren +4500 (FanDuel)

Alex Noren has been quietly playing some of his best golf of the last half decade this season. The 41-year-old is coming off back-to-back top-20 finishes in Florida including a T9 at The PLAYERS in his most recent start.

In his past 24 rounds, Noren ranks 21st in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 30th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, 25th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses and 21st in Strokes Gained: Putting on fast Bermudagrass greens.

In addition to his strong recent play, the Swede also has played well at Memorial Park. In 2022, Noren finished T4 at the event, gaining 2.2 strokes off the tee and 7.0 strokes on approach for the week. In his two starts at the course, he’s gained an average of .6 strokes per round on the field, indicating he is comfortable on these greens.

Noren has been due for a win for what feels like an eternity, but Memorial Park may be the course that suits him well enough for him to finally get his elusive first PGA Tour victory.

Mackenzie Hughes +8000 (FanDuel)

Mackenzie Hughes found himself deep into contention at last week’s Valspar Championship before faltering late and finishing in a tie for 3rd place. While he would have loved to win the event, it’s hard to see the performance as anything other than an overwhelming positive sign for the Canadian.

Hughes has played great golf at Memorial Park in the past. He finished T7 in 2020, T29 in 2021 and T16 in 2022. The course fit seems to be quite strong for Hughes. He’s added distance off the tee in the past year or and ranks 8th in the field for apex height, which will be a key factor when hitting into Memorial Park’s elevated greens with steep run-off areas.

In his past 24 rounds, Hughes is the best player in the field in Strokes Gained: Around the Greens. The ability to scramble at this course will be extremely important. I believe Hughes can build off of his strong finish last week and contend once again to cement himself as a President’s Cup consideration.

Akshay Bhatia +8000 (FanDuel)

Akshay Bhatia played well last week at the Valspar and seemed to be in total control of his golf ball. He finished in a tie for 17th and shot an impressive -3 on a difficult Sunday. After struggling Thursday, Akshay shot 68-70-68 in his next three rounds.

Thus far, Bhatia has played better at easier courses, but his success at Copperhead may be due to his game maturing. The 22-year-old has enormous potential and the raw talent to be one of the best players in the world when he figures it all out.

Bhatia is a high upside play with superstar qualities and may just take the leap forward to the next stage of his career in the coming months.

Cameron Champ +12000 (FanDuel)

Cameron Champ is a player I often target in the outright betting market due to his “boom-or-bust” nature. It’s hard to think of a player in recent history with three PGA Tour wins who’s been as inconsistent as Champ has over the course of his career.

Despite the erratic play, Cam Champ simply knows how to win. He’s won in 2018, 2019 and 2021, so I feel he’s due for a win at some point this season. The former Texas A&M product should be comfortable in Texas and last week he showed us that his game is in a pretty decent spot.

Over his past 24 rounds, Champ ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 30th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses. Given his ability to spike at any given time, Memorial Park is a good golf course to target Champ on at triple digit odds.

Robert MacIntyre +12000 (FanDuel)

The challenge this week is finding players who can possibly beat Scottie Scheffler while also not dumping an enormous amount of money into an event that has a player at the top that looks extremely dangerous. Enter McIntyre, who’s another boom-or-bust type player who has the ceiling to compete with anyone when his game is clicking on all cylinders.

In his past 24 rounds, MacIntyre ranks 16th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 17th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and 10th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses.

MacIntyre’s PGA Tour season has gotten off to a slow start, but he finished T6 in Mexico, which is a course where players will hit driver on the majority of their tee shots, which is what we will see at Memorial Park. Texas can also get quite windy, which should suit MacIntyre. Last July, the Scot went toe to toe with Rory McIlroy at the Scottish Open before a narrow defeat. It would take a similar heroic effort to compete with Scheffler this year in Houston.

Ryan Moore +15000 (FanDuel)

Ryan Moore’s iron play has been absolutely unconscious over his past few starts. At The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field, he gained 6.1 strokes on approach and last week at Copperhead, he gained 9.0 strokes on approach.

It’s been a rough handful of years on Tour for the 41-year-old, but he is still a five-time winner on the PGA Tour who’s young enough for a career resurgence. Moore has chronic deterioration in a costovertebral joint that connects the rib to the spine, but has been getting more consistent of late, which is hopefully a sign that he is getting healthy.

Veterans have been contending in 2024 and I believe taking a flier on a proven Tour play who’s shown signs of life is a wise move at Memorial Park.

 

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Why the race to get better at golf might be doing more harm than good

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B.F. Skinner was one of the most important psychologists of the 20th century, developing the foundation of the development of reinforcement, and in doing so, creating the concept of behaviorism. In simple terms, this means that we are conditioned by our habits. In practical terms, it explains the divide between the few and far between elite instructors and college coaches.

To understand the application, let’s quickly review one of B.F. Skinner’s most important experiments; superstitions in the formation of behavior by pigeons. In this experiment, food was dispensed to pigeons at random intervals. Soon, according to Skinner, the pigeons began to associate whatever action they were doing at the time of the food being dispensed. According to Skinner, this conditioned that response and soon, they simply haphazardly repeated the action, failing to distinguish between cause and correlation (and in the meantime, looking really funny!).

Now, this is simply the best way to describe the actions of most every women’s college golf coach and too many instructors in America. They see something work, get positive feedback and then become conditioned to give the feedback, more and more, regardless of if it works (this is also why tips from your buddies never work!).

Go to a college event, particularly a women’s one, and you will see coaches running all over the place. Like the pigeons in the experiment, they have been conditioned into a codependent relationship with their players in which they believe their words and actions, can transform a round of golf. It is simply hilarious while being equally perturbing

In junior golf, it’s everywhere. Junior golf academies make a living selling parents that a hysterical coach and over-coaching are essential ingredients in your child’s success.

Let’s be clear, no one of any intellect has any real interest in golf — because it’s not that interesting. The people left, including most coaches and instructors, carve out a small fiefdom, usually on the corner of the range, where they use the illusion of competency to pray on people. In simple terms, they baffle people with the bullshit of pseudo-science that they can make you better, after just one more lesson.

The reality is that life is an impromptu game. The world of golf, business, and school have a message that the goal is being right. This, of course, is bad advice, being right in your own mind is easy, trying to push your ideas on others is hard. As a result, it is not surprising that the divorce rate among golf professionals and their instructors is 100 percent. The transfer rate among college players continues to soar, and too many courses have a guy peddling nefarious science to good people. In fact, we do at my course!

The question is, what impact does all this have on college-age and younger kids? At this point, we honestly don’t know. However, I am going to go out on a limb and say it isn’t good.

Soren Kierkegaard once quipped “I saw it for what it is, and I laughed.” The actions of most coaches and instructors in America are laughable. The problem is that I am not laughing because they are doing damage to kids, as well as driving good people away from this game.

The fact is that golfers don’t need more tips, secrets, or lessons. They need to be presented with a better understanding of the key elements of golf. With this understanding, they can then start to frame which information makes sense and what doesn’t. This will emancipate them and allow them to take charge of their own development.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Valspar Championship betting preview: Elite ballstrikers to thrive at Copperhead

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The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2024 Valspar Championship.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermudagrass greens overseeded with POA. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 16, 17 and 18 — also known as the “Snake Pit” — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.

The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. The field this week is solid and is a major improvement over last year’s field that felt the impact of players skipping due to a handful of “signature events” in a short span of time. 

Past Winners at Valspar Championship

  • 2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
  • 2022: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
  • 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
  • 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
  • 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
  • 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Copperhead

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can’t be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)

  1. Tony Finau (+.90)
  2. Nick Taylor (+.81)
  3. Justin Thomas (+.77)
  4. Greyson Sigg (+.69)
  5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+.67)

2. Good Drive %

The long hitters can be a bit limited here due to the tree-lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important, but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.

Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+91.3%) 
  2. Zach Johnson (+91.1%)
  3. Sam Ryder (+90.5%)
  4. Ryan Moore (+90.4%)
  5. Aaron Rai (+89.7%)

3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1.32)
  2. Keith Mitchell (+1.29)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.24)
  4. Cameron Young (+1.17) 
  5. Doug Ghim (+.95)

4. Bogey Avoidance

With the conditions likely to be difficult, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, oftentimes the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.

Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.

Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+9.0)
  2. Xander Schauffele (+9.3)
  3. Austin Cook (+9.7) 
  4. Chesson Hadley (+10.0)
  5. Greyson Sigg (+10.2)

5. Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions

Conditions will be tough this week at Copperhead. I am looking for golfers who can rise to the occasion if the course plays as difficult as it has in the past.

Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1,71) 
  2. Min Woo Lee (+1.39)
  3. Cameron Young (+1.27)
  4. Jordan Spieth (+1.08)
  5. Justin Suh (+.94)

6. Course History

That statistic will tell us which players have played well at Copperhead in the past.

Course History Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+3.75) 
  2. Sam Burns (+2.49)
  3. Davis Riley (+2.33)
  4. Matt NeSmith (+2.22)
  5. Jordan Spieth (+2.04)

The Valspar Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Good Drive % (15%), SG: BS (20%), Bogeys Avoided (13%), Course History (13%) Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions (12%).

  1. Xander Schauffele
  2. Doug Ghim
  3. Victor Perez
  4. Greyson Sigg
  5. Ryan Moore
  6. Tony Finau
  7. Justin Thomas
  8. Sam Ryder
  9. Sam Burns
  10. Lucas Glover

2024 Valspar Championship Picks

Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)

Justin Thomas will be disappointed with his finish at last week’s PLAYERS Championship, as the past champion missed the cut despite being in some decent form heading into the event. Despite the missed cut, JT hit the ball really well. In his two rounds, the two-time major champion led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach per round.

Thomas has been up and down this season. He’s missed the cut in two “signature events” but also has finishes of T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T6 at the Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am and T3 at the American Express. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in the field.

Thomas loves Copperhead. In his last three tries at the course, he’s finished T13, T3 and T10. Thomas would have loved to get a win at a big event early in the season, but avoidable mistakes and a balky putter have cost him dearly. I believe a trip to a course he loves in a field he should be able to capitalize on is the right recipe for JT to right the ship.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (FanDuel)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is playing spectacular golf in the 2024 season. He finished 2nd at the American Express, T20 at Pebble Beach and T24 at the Genesis Invitational before finishing T13 at last week’s PLAYERS Championship.

In his past 24 rounds, the South African ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 26th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. Bezuidenhout managed to work his way around TPC Sawgrass last week with minimal damage. He only made five bogeys in the entire week, which is a great sign heading into a difficult Copperhead this week.

Bezuidenhout is winless in his PGA Tour career, but certainly has the talent to win on Tour. His recent iron play tells me that this week could be a breakthrough for the 35-year-old who has eyes on the President’s Cup.

Doug Ghim +8000 (FanDuel)

Doug Ghim has finished in the top-16 of his past five starts. Most recently, Ghim finished T16 at The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field.

In his past 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 5th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. In terms of his fit for Copperhead, the 27-year-old ranks 12th in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions, making him a great fit for the course.

Ghim has yet to win on Tour, but at one point he was the top ranked Amateur golfer in the world and played in the 2017 Arnold Palmer Cup and 2017 Walker Cup. He then won the Ben Hogan award for the best male college golfer in 2018. He certainly has the talent, and there are signals aplenty that his talent in ready to take him to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour.

Sepp Straka +8000 (BetRivers)

Sepp Straka is a player who’s shown he has the type of game that can translate to a difficult Florida golf course. The former Presidents Cup participant won the 2022 Honda Classic in tough conditions and should thrive with a similar test at Copperhead.

It’s been a slow 2024 for Straka, but his performance last week at the PLAYERS Championship surely provides some optimism. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach as well as 1.88 strokes off the tee. The tee-to-green game Straka showed on a course with plenty of danger demonstrates that he can stay in control of his golf ball this week.

It’s possible that the strong performance last week was an outlier, but I’m willing to bet on a proven winner in a weaker field at a great number.

Victor Perez +12000 (FanDuel)

Victor Perez is no stranger to success in professional golf. The Frenchman has three DP World Tour wins including a Rolex Series event. He won the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, as well as the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which are some big events.

Perez earned his PGA Tour card this season and enters the week playing some fantastic golf. He finished in a tie for 16th in Florida at the Cognizant Classic and then tied for third in his most recent start at the Puerto Rico Open.

In his past 24 rounds in the field, Perez ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 1oth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Good Drive % and 15th in Bogey Avoidance.

Perez comes in as a perfect fit for Copperhead and offers serious value at triple-digit odds.

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