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GolfWRX Fitters Survey 2018: The ultimate golf-fitting survey

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Recently, we asked some of the top fitters in the country burning questions that golfers have about golf club fitting. Their responses were eye-opening. Top fitters from the following fitting locations participated in this extensive survey:

Thank you to all of the fitters who took the time to help us with this survey, and took the time to answer.

Here are the questions we asked, and the answers from the top golf fitters in the nation.

1) What percentage of golfers need more loft on their driver?

2) What percentage of golfers need LESS loft on their driver?

  • Average answer: 35 percent

3) What percentage of golfers play shafts that are too stiff?

  • Average answer: 50 percent

4) What percentage of golfers play shafts that are too whippy?

  • Average answer: 35 percent

5) What percentage of golfers need to play with more forgiving irons?

6) What percentage of golfers need to play with LESS forgiving irons?

  • Average answer: 14 percent

7) What percentage of golfers play the wrong wedge grind?

  • Average answer: 64 percent

8) What percentage of golfers have an adjustable driver that’s setup incorrectly for their swing?

9) What’s the one part of the bag that golfers would benefit most from after a proper fitting?

  • Driver: 8.33 percent of answers
  • Fairway wood/hybrid: 0 percent
  • Irons: 0 percent
  • Wedges: 16.67 percent
  • Putter: 75 percent

10) With the choice of only one to fill a yardage gap, should a high-handicap golfer choose a fairway wood, hybrid, or driving iron?

11) What will lower scores more quickly, a fitting or a lesson?

  • Fitting: 75 percent
  • Lesson: 25 percent

12) In your own words, is grip size important to the fitting process?

  • Yes, but it can be tricky. I think incorrect sizing can cause a player to “hang on” to the club or limit their release. At the end of the day, the player needs to have a grip that gives them the “warm and fuzzy” feeling. If the club feels good in their hands, they are more likely to produce a better swing.
  • Yes, grip size influences grip pressure. Grip pressure can influence face angle, club head speed, and other factors that directly lead to ball flight. Grip style may be mostly player preference, but grip size should be constant and correct on all your full swing clubs.
  • Yes, it can have a dramatic effect on performance depending on the circumstances.
  • Grip size is important. Having a grip that allows you to feel more comfortable or relaxed results in better shots.
  • Grip size is important because it is the only thing that we touch while swinging a golf club. Traditional grip sizing metrics might be a little out of date. I do believe golfers have a misconception on what grip size does to ball flight (oversized grips fade/undersized grips draw). Everyone is unique and you can see different results by testing size.
  • For sure it is important. Over 75 percent of my fittings play the wrong size grips.
  • Very, but no proof that hand size measurements are exactly what the player needs.
  • Yes, it is the only connection to the club.
  • Very important.
  • Yes it is extremely important. It will allow you to hold on to the club with the proper pressure and still maintain control. Also grip size can help you let your hands be more active to help square the face or slow them down to help slow down a draw.
  • Of course. Though the traditional trend that big grips prevent hooks and little grips prevent slices is a very broad and inaccurate generalization. Grip fitting is very important and has a huge effect on swing weighting.
  • Somewhat. It depends on the player and their tendencies… doesn’t have to be spot on, but needs to be close.

13) In your own words, how often should golfers change wedges?

  • Depends on how much they play, but an avid golfer who practices a few days a week should likely switch once a year. Most tour players switch 3-4 times per/year.
  • When distance and spin are noticeably affected.
  • Once every 100-150 rounds
  • Every 50 rounds or even less. For golfers who practice a lot, even sooner.
  • Depends on how the golfer enjoys the game. Someone who is playing in local events or club events would usually want pure performance. In that instance, I would change out what ever club they use around the green every 75-100 rounds.
  • For those playing 50+ rounds a year, changes wedges every other year can help consistency with short pitches & chips.
  • Every year.
  • Depends on how much golf they play, but every year is a good time frame.
  • Every 100 rounds + 40 Range sessions.
  • Depends on how many rounds they play. Just keep an eye on the grooves and as long as they are playing the correct bounce.
  • When the groove texture on the face is no longer effective, or if their playing conditions or angle of attack change significantly, which would change the bounce and grinds they need to play.
  • When their wedge stops hitting the shots they intended to hit.

14) In your own words, how often should golfers change drivers?

  • If launch, spin and speed numbers are as good, they may not need to upgrade. In general, I’d say they should entertain new technology every 18-24 months.
  • When a player can see evidence of improved ball flight, consistency, or feel and upgrade is appropriate. Until then, keep what you have and work with a fitter to determine what changes will benefit your tee game.
  • Only when they find one that can beat what they have.
  • To have more noticeable gains, every 2-3 years. Technology is improving way too fast to not keep up.
  • If they are playing something from 2012 or newer, they should only be looking to switch if their ball speed, launch or spin are out of whack.
  • As a fitter, if I am able to maximize ball speed, optimize launch angle & the spin rate it could be every year. Most often I find 85-90 percent of players are able to gain accuracy & distance when taking part in a fitting.
  • 3-year check up.
  • When they find something that is an improvement.
  • Every 2500-3000 hits.
  • Every 2 to 3 years if they were originally fitted correctly.
  • Only after testing and fitting all available options to see if it is better than their current driver.
  • When performance starts decay, or their swing has changed enough that they aren’t hitting their desired shot.

15) In your own words, how often should golfers change irons?

  • Similar to the wedge answer, it really depends on how frequently they play/practice. Assuming all things are equal, a player should entertain new irons every 2/3 years.
  • When distance and ball flight become unreliable, and as a result your confidence in hitting greens suffers, it’s time to look at different irons. Consider set make-up and even combo sets to improve long and short irons appropriately. Look for consistency, and stopping power, not just distance.
  • Depends on how often the golfer plays, but about every two years, or once significant wear is appearing on the face and effecting backspin.
  • Most golfers should change every 4-5 years.
  • Tournament players every 3 years Competitive golfers 5 years. Weekend warrior every 10 years.
  • Depends on what the player is looking for. If they want distance over accuracy, it can be done. If they are trying to gain accuracy, that can me a bit more of a challenge, but I’d suggest every other year is a good place to start.
  • 2-year check up; irons are changing quicker than drivers.
  • Grooves wear out after a season or 2, or when they find something that is an improvement.
  • 150-200 rounds.
  • Again depends on how many rounds they play and how their game changes, but I would say 3 to 5 years.
  • Only after testing and fitting all available options of irons and shafts and identifying which could be better than what they currently play.
  • When performance starts decay, or their swing has changed enough that they aren’t hitting their desired shot.

16) In your own words, what is the biggest mistake golfers have in their bag when they come to you for a fitting?

  • Set makeup. Often times players arrive with the wrong configuration of golf clubs for their game.
  • Too many clubs that go a similar distance. Either too many head covers or too many longer irons. Often too much neglect for wedges and putter design.
  • Driver shafts that are too long, irons with incorrect lie angles, and too many clubs that do the same thing in the top of their bag.
  • Most golfers are typically playing one to two longer irons vs having more hybrids in their bag.
  • Typically they have clubs that just aren’t useful. Usually you will find 3 clubs in the bag that all carry the same distance. Most of my fittings never have had a gapping analysis. When you can show them how everything carries and how everything stops, it is eye opening for them and helps build a set where all the clubs have a purpose.
  • Too many long clubs such as fairway woods or hybrids. Many would shoot lower scores by taking out a low lofted fairways and add a wedge.
  • Long irons.
  • Loft and lie gapping.
  • Loft selections on their wedges.
  • Gapping issues, clubs that are similar, not having clubs that help them correctly for their misses, trying to match every club from the same OEM.
  • Set makeup, and a set that is not built consistently.

17) In your own words, when is swing weight incorporated into the fitting process?

  • Throughout.
  • Feel and tempo changes.
  • All the time with every club. It is vital for feel and making the golf club perform properly!
  • Throughout the entire process… from start to finish it needs to be considered.
  • From the start.
  • The player will initially give you feedback when you are comparing current vs new. We find swing weight is an important part of the process.
  • Great question… only if my customer seems to very tech-y or if we go longer or shorter than standard. Most OEM’s do a wonderful job with swing weight.
  • Not always a specific time. Would depend on which club we are using. The biggest thing is during the fitting process when you find the setup that works is to make sure that the build matches those specs.
  • Swing weight is a tough road to go down. Most players can adapt to how different clubs feel without discussing why. Once you start going into a lot of detail as to why or how swing weight is changed it becomes more complicated then it needs to be. I would say that swing weight is discussed about 25 percent of the time.
  • Swing weight should be considered during the entire process. The fitter should be looking for constant feedback on how the weight of the club feels.
  • Once the winning combination of head, shaft, lie and loft are established. Swing weight can help create confidence in feel, and consistent swing weights help players replicate their swing and tempo from club to club.
  • Swing weight is a result of the overall fitting process. There are too many variables to mention that can influence swing weight.

18) In your own words, what are the signs that a golfer has the wrong sole width on their irons?

  • If the club doesn’t go through the ground properly, typically the club will stick in the ground.
  • Hit location is consistently high or low on the face. Turf interaction has too much bearing on the ball flight.
  • The sound of impact will be off, often times sounding muted or heavy. A low flight despite a wide sole.
  • The most telling sign is turf interaction. Swing speed with Angle of Attack tell me a lot. Slower and more shallow players can benefit a lot from more width.
  • If the set is more experienced, you can show them the wear patterns on the old set. When I start talking about sole widths/bounce of irons and how it can change the contact point on face, I will usually start talking about wedges. Most golfers understand why is important in wedges but do not realize that the same applies to irons.
  • If they struggle getting the ball in the air or we see several shots being hit heavy or fat. Also depends on turf conditions.
  • Turf interaction and impact location (launch/spin).
  • How high or low on the face.
  • Attack angle, divot and trajectory are producing inconsistent distance control.
  • When their attack angle is too steep or shallow. Finding out what course conditions they play mostly. Bad ball position.
  • Improper turf interaction and ball contact.
  • Inconsistency at impact.
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17 Comments

17 Comments

  1. Chisag

    Jun 29, 2018 at 11:33 am

    99% of the 65% that should be playing more forgiving irons can be found in the MB threads on RX.

  2. Mike Mason

    Jun 27, 2018 at 11:55 pm

    I have attempted to get fitting/evaluation at 2 local SoCal fitters and all they wanted to was to sell me a new set right away. I have XR pro irons and XR16 driver it’s hard to believe they need to be replaced. Tuned or adjusted yes but replaced..? If any honest fitters are in the Inland Empire,Orange County or San Deigo and are willing to evaluate/adjust rather then just replace every thin I’m Willing to try again.

    Mike

  3. Bob Jones

    Jun 27, 2018 at 4:48 pm

    I average 83 for 18 holes. The new technology would have to cut that down to 77 or 78 by itself for me to be interested in investing $1,400 for new irons and a new driver. I know that’s asking a lot, but if the difference would be only two or three strokes, I have much better uses for that $1,400.

    BTW, I play a Titleist 975D driver and Hogan Apex Red Line irons.

  4. John

    Jun 27, 2018 at 2:28 pm

    Not buying that irons need to be replaced every 2 years. I just bought a set of 1970 hogans and honestly they fly the same distance and have better dispersion than my “fitted” callaways.

    • The Dude

      Jun 27, 2018 at 8:15 pm

      you and you only…………. are the exception. Can I ask WHY!!!>>>you bought a set of 70s BH’s..???

  5. Spitfisher

    Jun 27, 2018 at 1:41 pm

    ” In your own words, what is the biggest mistake golfers have in their bag when they come to you for a fitting?”

    Noticeably absent to this question and one that I get a lot as a fitter of 1000s per year. Amatuers need the eradicate the idea of what a set make up is. Clubs need to be gaped accordingly. An inline 50* gap wedge ( part of a set) may go 12-15 yards longer than a vokey , cleveland wedge in the same loft. An amateur may have both a 5 hybrid and 5 iron Players have the misconception that a new driver or irons will always go further than their last. I’m looking at consistency and dispersion which is far more important than long and inaccurate. Head, shaft, lie, loft, length all play a role in this.

  6. joro

    Jun 27, 2018 at 10:23 am

    Having been a club maker, fitter, teacher and player I have found and believe that a well fitter set does more for the game than a lesson. I would and did recommend that a player get his/her clubs fitted properly and then take some lessons. After that retune the clubs to adjust to whatever the swing has become. As for the Driver, it changes and they get better year after year. If you like the head, and they are all up to max, a shaft change could do the trick without the expense of a whole new club.

    these fixes can make a big difference but depends on your time and desire to play better. You have to practice what you have been taught and most don’t.

  7. Tourgrinder

    Jun 27, 2018 at 9:34 am

    Not all fitting pros and clubfitters are simplistic, but many are. As an advertising and promotional writer, I used to work with many pros helping to write and create some ads and brochures for their services. Head pros and teaching pros at courses are still the best in my opinion. As an injured player who now only plays 6-10 times a year, I already know my clubhead speed probably doesn’t “fit” with a stiff shaft, either woods or irons. Yet, I’m willing to give up some distance for the definitely improved accuracy and dispersion pattern. However, recently I went into one of the “big box” golf retailers just for fun. The “fitting pro” was a young 20-something who asked me to take one or two swings with a couple demo clubs, then told me I was XX mph on the clubhead speed monitor and THIS (whippy regular shaft) was the ideal shaft for me. Then he told me the specific brand of driver I should buy, (most likely because that was the brand that needed moving that day). And that was my more recent fitting experience. I didn’t buy anything. On the other hand, my first fitting experience was with a pro at a major golf club in the area…out on their grass range with an entire set of demo fitting clubs and various shaft flexes. It took about an hour and even then the customizing of the lie angle still needed tweaking. I would say proper fitting rarely happens that way today and probably happens more like the big-box store experience. Lesson to be learned: golfers still should be trying various clubs and shafts on grass ranges, looking at carry distance; launch angle and “window” by sight, not just monitor; and also dispersion pattern by shaft and clubhead type. Computer monitor stats are a good place to start, not start and finish.

  8. Matt

    Jun 26, 2018 at 8:21 pm

    Geeeezus, who did the graphic design for this article? A serial killer?

  9. SV

    Jun 26, 2018 at 2:12 pm

    It is not a surprise fitters think clubs should be replaced every 1-3 years, you have to keep the money coming in. Other than maybe wedges, I would think a 5 year turn on clubs would be sufficient for most people. A putter could last forever(or 1 round depending on how faithful it is). I am thinking of an average golfer with a 15-20 handicap playing 15 to 25 times a year, not a tournament player.

  10. juststeve

    Jun 26, 2018 at 10:45 am

    Question 11. What a surprise, fitters thing fitting will result in quicker improvement than lessons. I wonder what teachers would think.

    • SG

      Jun 26, 2018 at 1:11 pm

      Even knowing they are biased, it’s telling that 25% don’t think equipment will lead to fast improvement.

    • Thomas A

      Jun 26, 2018 at 3:43 pm

      Well, quicker is the key word. Carrying out the result of a lesson could take time.

    • Bobtrumpet

      Jun 26, 2018 at 5:51 pm

      Considering that (1) many teachers are also fitters, or at least understand the importance of clubs that fit the player, and see the improvement when the player is using properly fit equipment, and (2) knowing how most students don’t bother practicing what they are taught in lessons, many (most?) would probably agree with the fitters. 🙂

    • joro

      Jun 27, 2018 at 10:26 am

      A lot of “Teachers” I have seen have no clue how to really teach or fit.

      • The Dude

        Jun 27, 2018 at 8:20 pm

        what’s “A Lot??”

        • Tom Wishon

          Jul 10, 2018 at 5:36 pm

          Based on having taught many educational seminars on clubfitting to PGA pros around the world during my career, I will put the number of teaching pros who cannot fit properly at 90% at least. And that’s being kind, it really is. It’s because the vast majority of pros get very poor fitting instruction in their training curriculum for membership. But another problem with that is the fact that so many pros think they know how to fit just because they themselves are good players. Wrong.

          Europe is getting better at this but not the US PGA. When OEMs donate money to the US PGA sections for the pros to be able to tee it up in sectional events for a little cash, that buys the PGA’s loyalty to not seek out proper fitting instruction in their member training curriculum. The other way is by giving the pro a nice big bag with his name on it. Why piss off the hand that feeds you by teaching the pros how bad 45-46″ drivers are, how bad 43+” 3-woods are, hybrids that are too long, irons that are too low in loft and custom programs that mainly feature $200+ shafts and little else.

          You’d think pros would at least be trained and encouraged to fit and bend lie on irons. If you told me 10% of the pros owned a LL machine, I’d raise the eyebrows in serious skepticism at that. If 10% own an LL machine, I’ll bet less than half use it or know how to. If the pros knew decent fitting knowledge there would be no such thing as 45-46″ drivers, adjustable hosels, iron sets with anything lower than a 5 iron and on and on.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Valspar Championship betting preview: Elite ballstrikers to thrive at Copperhead

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The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2024 Valspar Championship.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermudagrass greens overseeded with POA. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 16, 17 and 18 — also known as the “Snake Pit” — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.

The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. The field this week is solid and is a major improvement over last year’s field that felt the impact of players skipping due to a handful of “signature events” in a short span of time. 

Past Winners at Valspar Championship

  • 2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
  • 2022: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
  • 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
  • 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
  • 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
  • 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Copperhead

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can’t be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)

  1. Tony Finau (+.90)
  2. Nick Taylor (+.81)
  3. Justin Thomas (+.77)
  4. Greyson Sigg (+.69)
  5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+.67)

2. Good Drive %

The long hitters can be a bit limited here due to the tree-lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important, but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.

Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+91.3%) 
  2. Zach Johnson (+91.1%)
  3. Sam Ryder (+90.5%)
  4. Ryan Moore (+90.4%)
  5. Aaron Rai (+89.7%)

3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1.32)
  2. Keith Mitchell (+1.29)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.24)
  4. Cameron Young (+1.17) 
  5. Doug Ghim (+.95)

4. Bogey Avoidance

With the conditions likely to be difficult, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, oftentimes the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.

Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.

Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+9.0)
  2. Xander Schauffele (+9.3)
  3. Austin Cook (+9.7) 
  4. Chesson Hadley (+10.0)
  5. Greyson Sigg (+10.2)

5. Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions

Conditions will be tough this week at Copperhead. I am looking for golfers who can rise to the occasion if the course plays as difficult as it has in the past.

Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1,71) 
  2. Min Woo Lee (+1.39)
  3. Cameron Young (+1.27)
  4. Jordan Spieth (+1.08)
  5. Justin Suh (+.94)

6. Course History

That statistic will tell us which players have played well at Copperhead in the past.

Course History Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+3.75) 
  2. Sam Burns (+2.49)
  3. Davis Riley (+2.33)
  4. Matt NeSmith (+2.22)
  5. Jordan Spieth (+2.04)

The Valspar Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Good Drive % (15%), SG: BS (20%), Bogeys Avoided (13%), Course History (13%) Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions (12%).

  1. Xander Schauffele
  2. Doug Ghim
  3. Victor Perez
  4. Greyson Sigg
  5. Ryan Moore
  6. Tony Finau
  7. Justin Thomas
  8. Sam Ryder
  9. Sam Burns
  10. Lucas Glover

2024 Valspar Championship Picks

Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)

Justin Thomas will be disappointed with his finish at last week’s PLAYERS Championship, as the past champion missed the cut despite being in some decent form heading into the event. Despite the missed cut, JT hit the ball really well. In his two rounds, the two-time major champion led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach per round.

Thomas has been up and down this season. He’s missed the cut in two “signature events” but also has finishes of T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T6 at the Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am and T3 at the American Express. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in the field.

Thomas loves Copperhead. In his last three tries at the course, he’s finished T13, T3 and T10. Thomas would have loved to get a win at a big event early in the season, but avoidable mistakes and a balky putter have cost him dearly. I believe a trip to a course he loves in a field he should be able to capitalize on is the right recipe for JT to right the ship.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (FanDuel)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is playing spectacular golf in the 2024 season. He finished 2nd at the American Express, T20 at Pebble Beach and T24 at the Genesis Invitational before finishing T13 at last week’s PLAYERS Championship.

In his past 24 rounds, the South African ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 26th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. Bezuidenhout managed to work his way around TPC Sawgrass last week with minimal damage. He only made five bogeys in the entire week, which is a great sign heading into a difficult Copperhead this week.

Bezuidenhout is winless in his PGA Tour career, but certainly has the talent to win on Tour. His recent iron play tells me that this week could be a breakthrough for the 35-year-old who has eyes on the President’s Cup.

Doug Ghim +8000 (FanDuel)

Doug Ghim has finished in the top-16 of his past five starts. Most recently, Ghim finished T16 at The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field.

In his past 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 5th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. In terms of his fit for Copperhead, the 27-year-old ranks 12th in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions, making him a great fit for the course.

Ghim has yet to win on Tour, but at one point he was the top ranked Amateur golfer in the world and played in the 2017 Arnold Palmer Cup and 2017 Walker Cup. He then won the Ben Hogan award for the best male college golfer in 2018. He certainly has the talent, and there are signals aplenty that his talent in ready to take him to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour.

Sepp Straka +8000 (BetRivers)

Sepp Straka is a player who’s shown he has the type of game that can translate to a difficult Florida golf course. The former Presidents Cup participant won the 2022 Honda Classic in tough conditions and should thrive with a similar test at Copperhead.

It’s been a slow 2024 for Straka, but his performance last week at the PLAYERS Championship surely provides some optimism. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach as well as 1.88 strokes off the tee. The tee-to-green game Straka showed on a course with plenty of danger demonstrates that he can stay in control of his golf ball this week.

It’s possible that the strong performance last week was an outlier, but I’m willing to bet on a proven winner in a weaker field at a great number.

Victor Perez +12000 (FanDuel)

Victor Perez is no stranger to success in professional golf. The Frenchman has three DP World Tour wins including a Rolex Series event. He won the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, as well as the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which are some big events.

Perez earned his PGA Tour card this season and enters the week playing some fantastic golf. He finished in a tie for 16th in Florida at the Cognizant Classic and then tied for third in his most recent start at the Puerto Rico Open.

In his past 24 rounds in the field, Perez ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 1oth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Good Drive % and 15th in Bogey Avoidance.

Perez comes in as a perfect fit for Copperhead and offers serious value at triple-digit odds.

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Opinion & Analysis

Myrtle Beach, Explored: February in South Carolina

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As I gain in experience and age, and familiarity breeds neither contempt nor disdain, I understand why people return to a place. A destination like Myrtle Beach offers a sizable supply and diversity of restaurants, entertainment venues, and shops that are predicated on the tenets of the service industry. Greet your customers with a smile and a kind word, and they will find comfort and assurance. Provide them with a memorable experience and they will suggest your place of business to others.

My first tour of Myrtle Beach took place in the mid-1980s, and consisted of one course: Gator Hole. I don’t remember much from that day, and since Gator Hole closed a decade later, I cannot revisit it to recollect what I’d lost. Since then, I’ve come to the Grand Strand a few times, and been fortunate to never place a course more than once. I’ve seen the Strantz courses to the south and dipped my toe in the North Carolina courses of Calabash. I’ve been to many in the middle, including Dunes, Pine Lakes, Grande Dunes among them.

2024 brought a quartet of new courses, including two at the Barefoot Resort. I’d heard about the North Myrtle Beach four-pack of courses that highlight the Barefoot property, including layouts from Pete Dye, Tom Fazio, Davis Love III, and Greg Norman. I had the opportunity to play and shoot the Dye and Fazio tracks, which means that I’ll have to return to see the other two. Sandwiched between them were the TPC-Myrtle Beach course, also from Tom Fazio, and the Pawley’s Plantation trace, by the hand of Jack Nicklaus. I anticipated a bit of the heroic, and bit of the strategic, and plenty of eye candy. None of those architects would ever be considered a minimalist, so there would be plenty of in-play and out-of-play bunkers and mounds to tantalize the senses.

My nephew arrived a few days early, to screen a few more courses. As a result, you the reader will have an extra quarter of mini-reviews, bringing the total of courses in this piece to eight. It was inconceivable that CJR would play four courses that I had never played nor photographed, but that was the case. His words appear at the end of this piece. We hope that you enjoy the tour.

Main Feature: Two Barefoots, a TPC, and Pawley’s Plantation

Barefoot Dye

What Paul “Pete” Dye brought back from his trips to the United Kingdom, hearkened back to what C.B. MacDonal did, some 65 years prior. There is a way of finding bunkers and fairways, and even green sites, that does not require major industrial work. The Dye course at Barefoot Resorts takes you on a journey over the rumpled terrain of distant places. If there’s one element missing, it’s the creased and turbulent fairways, so often found in England and Ireland. The one tenet of playing a Dye course, is to always aim away from temptation, from where your eyes draw you. Find the safe side of the target, and you’ll probably find your ball. It then stands that you will have a shot for your next attempt. Cut the corner, and you might have need to reload. The Barefoot course begins gently, in terms of distance, but challenges with visual deception. After two brief 4s and a 3, the real work begins. The course is exposed enough, to allow the coastal winds to dance along the fairways. Be ready to keep the ball low and take an extra club or two.

TPC-Myrtle Beach

If memory serves, TPCMB is my first trek around a TPC-branded course. It had all the trappings of a tour course, from the welcome, through the clubhouse, to the practice facilities and, of course, the course. TPC-Myrtle Beach is a Tom Fazio design, and if you never visit Augusta National, you’ll now have an idea of what it is like. You play Augusta’s 16th hole twice at TPCMB, and you enjoy it both times. Fazio really likes the pond-left, green-angle-around par three hole, and his two iterations of it are memorable.

You’ll also see those Augusta bunkers, the ones with the manicured edges that drop into a modestly-circular form. What distinguishes these sand pits is the manner in which they rise from the surrounding ground. They are unique in that they don’t resemble the geometric bunkering of a Seth Raynor, nor the organic pits found in origin courses. They are built, make no mistake, and recovery from them is manageable for all levels of bunker wizardry.

Barefoot Fazio

If you have the opportunity to play the two Tom Fazio courses back to back, you’ll notice a marked difference in styling. Let me digress for a moment, then circle back with an explanation. It was written that the NLE World Woods course designed by Fazio, Pine Barrens, was an homage to Pine Valley, the legendary, New Jersey club where Fazio is both a member and the architect on retainer. The Pine Barrens course was plowed under in 2022, so the homage no longer exists. At least, I didn’t think that it existed, until I played his Barefoot Resort course in North Myrtle Beach.

Pine Valley might be described as an aesthetic of scrub and sand. There are mighty, forced carries to travers, along with sempiternal, sandy lairs to avoid. Barefoot Fazio is quite similar. If you’re not faced with a forced carry, you’ll certainly contend with a fairway border or greenside necklace of sand. When you reach the 13th tee, you’ll face a drive into a fairway, and you might see a distant green, with a notable absence: flagstick. The 13th is the icing on the homage cake, a callout of the 8th hole at Pine Valley. Numero Ocho at the OG has two greens, side by side, and they change the manner in which the hole plays (so they say.) At Barefoot Fazio, the right-side green is a traditional approach, with an unimpeded run of fairway to putting surface. The left-side green (the one that I was fortunate to play) demands a pitch shot over a wasteland. It’s a fitting tribute for the rest of us to play.

Be certain to parrot the starter, Leon’s, advice, and play up a deck of tees. Barefoot Fazio offers five par-three holes, so the fours and fives play that much longer. Remember, too, that you are on vacation. Why not treat yourself to some birdie looks?

Pawley’s Plantation

The Jack Nicklaus course at Pawley’s Plantation emerged from a period of hibernation in 2024. The greens were torn up and their original contours were restored. Work was overseen by Troy Vincent, a member of the Nicklaus Architecture team. In addition, the putting corridors were reseeded with a hardier, dwarf bermuda that has experienced great success, all along the Grand Strand that is Myrtle Beach.

My visit allowed me to see the inward half first, and I understand why the resort wishes to conclude your day on those holes. The front nine of Pawley’s Plantation works its way through familiar, low country trees and wetlands. The back nine begins in similar fashion, then makes its way east, toward the marsh that separates mainland from Pawley’s Island. Recalling the powerful sun of that Wednesday morning, any round beginning on the second nine would face collateral damage from the warming star. Much better to hit holes 11 to close when the sun is higher in the sky.

The marshland holes (12 through 17) are spectacular in their raw, unprotected nature. The winds off the Atlantic are unrelenting and unforgiving, and the twin, par-three holes will remain in your memory banks for time’s march. In typical Golden Bear fashion, a majority of his putting targets are smallish in nature, reflecting his appreciation for accurate approach shots. Be sure to find the forgiving side of each green, and err to that portion. You’ll be grateful.

Bonus Coverage: Myrtlewood, Beechwood, Arrowhead, and King’s North

Arrowhead (Raymond Floyd and Tom Jackson)

A course built in the middle of a community, water threatens on most every hole. The Cypress 9 provides a few holes forcing a carried drive then challenge you with water surrounding the green. On Waterway, a drivable 2nd hole will tempt most, so make sure the group ahead has cleared the green.

Myrtlewood (Edmund Alt and Arthur Hills) and Beechwood (Gene Hamm)

A middle of the winter New Englander’s paradise. Wide open fairways, zero blind shots and light rough allow for shaking off the rust and plenty of forgiveness. A plethora of dog legs cause one to be cautious with every tee shot. Won’t break the bank nor the scorecard.

King’s North @ Myrtle Beach National (Arnold Palmer)

A signature Arnold Palmer course, waste areas, island greens and daring tee shots. Highlighted by the 4th hole Par 5 Gambler hole, if you can hit the smaller fairway on the left you are rewarded with a short approach to get to the green in 2. The back 9 is highlighted by an island green par 3 and a finisher with over 40 bunkers spread throughout. A challenge for any golfer.
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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Players Championship betting preview: Pete Dye specialists ready to pass tough TPC Sawgrass test

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The PGA Tour heads to TPC Sawgrass to play in one of the most prestigious and important events of the season: THE PLAYERS Championship. Often referred to as the fifth major, the importance of a PLAYERS victory to the legacy of a golfer can’t be overlooked.

TPC Sawgrass is a par-72 measuring 7,245 yards and featuring Bermudagrass greens. Golfers must be patient in attacking this Pete Dye course.

With trouble lurking at every turn, the strokes can add up quickly. With a par-5 16th that is a true risk-reward hole and the famous par-3 17th island green, the only safe bet at TPC Sawgrass is a bet on an exciting finish.

THE PLAYERS Championship field is often referred to as the strongest field of the year — and with good reason. There are 144 in the field, including 43 of the world’s top 50 players in the OWGR. Tiger Woods will not be playing in the event.

THE PLAYERS is an exceptionally volatile event that has never seen a back-to-back winner.

Past Winners at TPC Sawgrass

  • 2023: Scottie Scheffler (-17)
  • 2022: Cameron Smith (-13)
  • 2021: Justin Thomas (-14)
  • 2019: Rory McIlroy (-16)
  • 2018: Webb Simpson (-18)
  • 2017: Si-Woo Kim (-10)
  • 2016: Jason Day (-15)
  • 2015: Rickie Fowler (-12)In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

5 Key Stats for TPC Sawgrass

Let’s take a look at five metrics key for TPC Sawgrass to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach has historically been far and away the most important and predictive stat at THE PLAYERS Championship. With water everywhere, golfers can’t afford to be wild with their iron shots. Not only is it essential to avoid the water, but it will also be as important to go after pins and make birdies because scores can get relatively low.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.37) 
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.20)
  3. Tony Finau (+0.99)
  4. Jake Knapp (+0.83)
  5. Shane Lowry (+0.80)

2. Total Driving

This statistic is perfect for TPC Sawgrass. Historically, driving distance hasn’t been a major factor, but since the date switch to March, it’s a bit more significant. During this time of year, the ball won’t carry quite as far, and the runout is also shorter.

Driving accuracy is also crucial due to all of the trouble golfers can get into off of the tee. Therefore, players who are gaining on the field with Total Driving will put themselves in an ideal spot this week.

Total Driving Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Rory McIlroy (22)
  2. Akshay Bhatia (25)
  3. Keith Mitchell (25) 
  4. Adam Hadwin (34)
  5. Sam Burns (+39)

3. Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye Designs

TPC Sawgrass may be Pete Dye’s most famous design, and for good reason. The course features Dye’s typical shaved runoff areas and tricky green complexes.  Pete Dye specialists love TPC Sawgrass and should have a major advantage this week.

SG: Total (Pete Dye) per round over past 36 rounds:

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+2.02)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.90)
  3. Min Woo Lee (+1.77) 
  4. Sungjae Im (+1.72)
  5. Brian Harman (+1.62) 

4. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Prototypical ball-strikers have dominated TPC Sawgrass. With past winners like Sergio Garcia, Henrik Stenson, Webb Simpson, Rory McIlroy and Justin Thomas, it’s evident that golfers must be striking it pure to contend at THE PLAYERS.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.02)
  2. Tony Finau (+1.51)
  3. Tom Hoge (+1.48)
  4. Keith Mitchell (+1.38)
  5. Will Zalatoris (+1.18)

5. Par 5 Average

Par-5 average is extremely important at TPC Sawgrass. With all four of the Par-5s under 575 yards, and three of them under 540 yards, a good amount of the scoring needs to come from these holes collectively.

Par 5 Average Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Scottie Schefler (+4.31)
  2. Erik Van Rooyen (+4.35)
  3. Doug Ghim (+4.34)
  4. Wyndham Clark (+4.34)
  5. Matt Fitzpatrick (+4.31)

6. Strokes Gained: Florida

We’ve used this statistic over the past few weeks, and I’d like to incorporate some players who do well in Florida into this week’s model as well. 

Strokes Gained: Florida over past 30 rounds:

  1. Scottie Schefler (+2.43)
  2. Erik Van Rooyen (+1.78)
  3. Doug Ghim (+1.78)
  4. Wyndham Clark (+1.73)
  5. Matt Fitzpatrick (+1.69)

7. Strokes Gained: Total on Courses with High Water Danger

With water everywhere at TPC Sawgrass, the blow-up potential is high. It can’t hurt to factor in some players who’ve avoided the “eject” button most often in the past. 

Strokes Gained: Total on Courses with High Water Danger over past 30 rounds:

  1. Scottie Schefler (+2.08)
  2. Rory McIlroy (+1.82)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.62)
  4. Patrick Cantlay (+1.51)
  5. Will Zalatoris (+1.49)

THE PLAYERS Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (25%), Total Driving (20%), SG: Total Pete Dye (14%), SG: Ball-striking (15%) SG: Par 5 (8%), SG: Florida (10%) and SG: High Water (8%).

  1. Scottie Scheffler 
  2. Shane Lowry 
  3. Tony Finau 
  4. Corey Conners
  5. Keith Mitchell
  6. Justin Thomas
  7. Will Zalatoris
  8. Xander Schauffele
  9. Cameron Young
  10. Doug Ghim
  11. Sam Burns 
  12. Chris Kirk
  13. Collin Morikawa
  14. Si Woo Kim
  15. Wyndham Clark

2024 THE PLAYERS Championship Picks

(All odds at the time of writing)

Patrick Cantlay +2500 (DraftKings):

Patrick Cantlay is winless since the 2022 BMW Championship but is undoubtedly one of the most talented players on the PGA Tour. Since the win at Wilmington Country Club, the 31-year-old has twelve top-10 finishes on Tour and is starting to round into form for the 2024 season.

Cantlay has done well in the most recent “signature” events this season, finishing 4th at Riviera for the Genesis Invitational and 12th at Bay Hill for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. The former Tour Championship winner resides in Jupiter, Florida and has played some good golf in the state, including finishing in a tie for 4th at the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational. His history at TPC Sawgrass has been up and down, but his best career start at The PLAYERS came last year when he finished in a tie for 19th.

Cantlay absolutely loves Pete Dye designed courses and ranks 1st in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on Dye tracks in his past 36 rounds. In recent years, he’s been excellent at both the RBC Heritage and the Travelers Championship. TPC Sawgrass is a place where players will have to be dialed in with their irons and distance off the tee won’t be quite as important. In his past 24, rounds, Cantlay ranks in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach.

Despite being winless in recent years, I still believe Cantlay is capable of winning big tournaments. As one of the only United States players to bring their best game to Marco Simone for the Ryder Cup, I have conviction that the former top amateur in the world can deliver when stakes are high.

Will Zalatoris +3000 (FanDuel):

In order to win at TPC Sawgrass, players will need to be in total control of their golf ball. At the moment, Will Zalatoris is hitting it as well as almost anyone and finally has the putter cooperating with his new switch to the broomstick style.

Zalatoris is coming off back-to-back starts where he absolutely striped the ball. He finished 2nd at the Genesis Invitational and 4th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational where his statistics were eye opening. For the week at Bay Hill, Zal gained 5.0 strokes on approach and 5.44 strokes off the tee.

Throughout the early part of his career, Zalatoris has established himself by playing his best golf in the strongest fields with the most difficult conditions. A tough test will allow him to separate himself this week and breakthrough for a PLAYERS Championship victory.

Shane Lowry +4000 (DraftKings):

History has shown us that players need to be in good form to win the PLAYERS Championship and it’s hard to find anyone not named Scottie Scheffler who’s in better form that Shane Lowry at the moment. He finished T4 at the Cognizant Classic followed by a solo third place finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

The fact that the Irishman contended at Bay Hill is a great sign considering he’s really struggled there throughout his career. He will now head to a different style of course in Florida where he’s had a good deal of success. He finished 8th at TPC Sawgrass in 2021 and 13th in 2022. 

Lowry ranks 6th in the field in approach in his past 24 rounds, 7th in Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye designed courses in his last 30 rounds, 8th in par 5 scoring this season, and 4th in Strokes Gained: Total in Florida over his past 36 rounds.

Lowry is a player who’s capable of winning big events. He’s a major champion and won another premier event at Wentworth as well as a WGC at Firestone. He’s also a form player, when he wins it’s typically when he’s contended in recent starts. He’s been terrific thus far in Florida and he should get into contention once again this week.

Brian Harman +8000 (DraftKings):

(Note: Since writing this Harman’s odds have plummeted to 50-1. I would not advise betting the 50).

Brian Harman showed us last season that if the course isn’t extremely long, he has the accuracy both off the tee and with his irons to compete with anyone in the world. Last week at Bay Hill and was third in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, gaining 5.54 strokes on the field in the category.

In addition to the strong iron play, Harman also gained strokes off the tee in three of four rounds. He’s also had success at Pete Dye tracks recently. He finished 2nd at last year’s Travelers Championship and 7th at the RBC Heritage.

It would be a magnificent feat for Harman to win both the Open Championship and PLAYERS in a short time frame, but the reality is the PGA Tour isn’t quite as strong as it once was. Harman is a player who shows up for the biggest events and his odds seem way too long for his recent track record.

Tony Finau +6500 (FanDuel):

A few weeks ago, at the Genesis Invitational, I bet Hideki Matsuyama because I believed it to be a “bet the number” play at 80-1. I feel similarly about Finau this week. While he’s not having the season many people expected of him, he is playing better than these odds would indicate.

This season, Tony has a tied for 6th place finish at Torrey Pines, a tied for 19th at Riviera and tied for 13th at the Mexico Open. He’s also hitting the ball extremely well. In the field in his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Approach, 3rd in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Par 5 average and 15th in Total Driving.

Finau’s problem has been with the putter, which has been undeniably horrific. However, this week he will see a putting surface similar to the POA at TPC Scottsdale and PGA West, which he’s had a great deal of success on. It’s worth taking a stab at this price to see if he can have a mediocre week with the flat stick.

Sungjae Im +9000 (FanDuel):

It’s been a lackluster eighteen months for Sungjae, who once appeared to be a certain star. While his ceiling is absolutely still there, it’s been a while since we’ve seen Im play the type of golf expected of a player with his talent.

Despite the obvious concerns, the South Korean showed glimpses of a return to form last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He tied for 18th place and gained strokes off the tee, on approach, around the green and with the putter. When at his best, Im is a perfect course fit for TPC Sawgrass. He has remarkable precision off the tee, can get dialed in with his irons on shorter courses and can get up and down with the best players on Tour.

This number has gotten to the point where I feel comfortable taking a shot on it.

Billy Horschel +20000 (FanDuel):

Billy Horschel is a great fit on paper for TPC Sawgrass. He can get dialed in with his irons and his lack of distance off the tee won’t be a major detriment at the course. “Bermuda Billy” does his best work putting on Bermudagrass greens and he appears to be rounding into form just in time to compete at The PLAYERS.

In his most recent start, Billy finished in a tie for 9th at the Cognizant Classic and hit the ball extremely well. The former Florida Gator gained 3.32 strokes on approach and 2.04 strokes off the tee. If Horschel brings that type of ball striking to TPC Sawgrass, he has the type of putter who can win a golf tournament.

Horschel has been great on Pete Dye designed courses, with four of his seven career PGA Tour wins coming on Dye tracks.

In a season that has seen multiple long shots win big events, the 37-year-old is worth a stab considering his knack for playing in Florida and winning big events.

 

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