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A deep dive into “toe hang” of a putter, and why it matters

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Let’s start with the basics just to be sure everyone is on the same page. When people talk about toe hang (at least in the traditional sense), what exactly are they talking about?

Grab your putter and lay it on a flat surface with the putter head hanging freely off the edge. Now, look at where the toe of your putter is pointing and imagine a clock face is centered on the axis of the shaft. The closer the toe of your putter is to pointing at 6:00, the more toe hang it has. The closer the toe of your putter is to pointing at 9:00 (for a right-handed golfer), the less toe hang it has. If the toe of the putter is pointing directly at 9:00 (where the face is pointing straight up), that is referred to as “face balanced.” If the toe of the putter is pointing at 7:30, that is generally referred to as “1/4 toe hang.” If the toe of the putter is pointing directly at 6:00, that is commonly referred to as “full toe hang.” Generally speaking, the majority of putters will fall on a spectrum somewhere between face balanced and full toe hang.

Of course, there are exceptions to that, but the point of this article will be to address more traditional designs.

What determines Toe Hang?

In technical terms, toe hang is determined by the relationship between the axis of the shaft and the center of gravity of the putter. If the two are perfectly aligned, the result is a face balanced putter. However, as the axis of the putter shaft gets closer to the golfer in relation to the putter’s center of gravity when addressing the golf ball, more toe hang will be the result. What that means from a feel perspective is that more toe hang will place the weight of the putter farther away from your hands as you swing the putter. That displacement will effectively place a moment arm on the putter shaft as you swing it, encouraging the face to open as you go back and then close as you move through the ball. Conversely, a face balanced putter will not want to torque at all naturally during the course of swinging the putter, as the two points are aligned with each other.

Something else to keep in mind is that there are two components to a torque or a moment. One is the distance between the two points (also referred to as the moment arm), which is essentially what we’ve been talking about up to now. The second component is the amount of force acting at that distance. As the weight of your putter increases, so will the effect of more or less toe hang. In practice, an original Ping Anser from 40 years ago won’t engage the hands in the same way during the stroke that a Ping Anser from today will due to today’s putter being 25-30 grams heavier. That may not sound like much until you point out that it’s a 10 percent increase.

Face-balanced putter’s relationship between axis of shaft (red line) and putter CG

Ping Anser’s relationship between axis of shaft (red line) and putter CG

8802’s relationship between axis of shaft (red line) and putter CG

What does Toe Hang actually do?

In the interest of full disclosure, I would have to submit that there is a myriad of characteristics that make a certain putter perfect for a particular golfer. This article is a deep dive into just one of those topics. We have to assume the putter’s length, lie angle, loft, offset, static weight, swing weight, grip size, grip shape, etc. are already suited to the golfer. We also have to assume the putter fits the golfer’s eye, feels right, and inspires confidence. Assuming those have all been configured correctly, let’s address what toe hang can do for a golfer.

Let’s go back to our previous discussion about more toe hang encouraging more torqueing of the putter face. Ultimately, you need to ask yourself what you want to feel when swinging the putter, as toe hang will contribute a lot to how the golfer feels where the face of the putter is. A golfer who prefers a lot of toe hang will complain that he or she has no idea where the face is when swinging a face balanced putter. On the contrary, a golfer who prefers a face balanced putter will feel like he or she has to fight with the putter in order to square the face of a heel-shafted blade.

As a general rule, more toe hang will either encourage or better suit a stronger arc in the putting stroke. One of the more classic examples of this arrangement would be Ben Crenshaw’s fluid, swinging-a-door putting stroke matched to the iconic heel-shafted blade putter he so famously wielded over the years.

Putters in the vicinity of ¼ toe hang (probably most of which would be somehow related to the trusty Ping Anser) generally encourage or better suit a slight arc in the putting stroke. Examples of this setup are nearly endless, but arguably one of the more successful would be Brad Faxon, who holds the record for lowest putts per GIR in a PGA Tour season at 1.704.

Face-balanced putters (as you might have guessed) generally encourage or will better suit a straight-back, straight-through putting stroke. These types of putters will most often appear in the form of a mallet with a double bend shaft. This recipe is one that has been widely attributed to legendary instructor Dave Pelz and his teaching methodology.

What does all of this ultimately mean?

When you go shopping for a new flat stick, try out different amounts of toe hang and get a feel for how they engage your hands as you swing the putter. Ultimately, that’s what you’re paying attention to. Different amounts of toe hang will allow you to have a different feel for where the face of the putter is, which will have different effects on how you release the putter. This will affect both the location you strike the ball on the face as well as your face angle control, so having a poor match could adversely affect both your distance and directional control.

Different putting stroke paths and their general relationship with toe hang

There is no “one size fits all” answer for what works, but as I alluded to above, there are some general guidelines for where you can start. As a rule, the more arc you have in your stroke, the more toe hang you will likely prefer. With that being said, there are exceptions to every rule. While it’s generally true that an 8802 is a good match with a strong arc stroke (for example), there are also cases where a golfer’s natural strong arcing stroke might benefit from something with less toe hang. Placing the center of gravity of the putter closer to the axis of the shaft could possibly quiet the golfer’s hands during the putting stroke. This, of course, depends on whether your personal putting stroke needs correcting or simply complimenting.

Also, your typical miss patterns could indicate a mismatch between you and the toe hang in your putter. If you miss a lot of putts to the right (for a right-handed golfer), a putter with less toe hang might help you correct that. Obviously, the reverse of that might also help you if you miss to the left often.

In short, while there are some general guidelines to follow that serve as good starting points, there is no cookie-cutter answer for finding the right putter from you apart from a fitting with an experienced professional. And when you find the right recipe for YOU, stick with it. No two golfers are the same and no two putters are the same.

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Peter Schmitt is an avid golfer trying to get better every day, the definition of which changes relatively frequently. He believes that first and foremost, golf should be an enjoyable experience. Always. Peter is a former Marine and a full-time mechanical engineer (outside of the golf industry). He lives in Lexington, KY with his wife and two young kids. "What other people may find in poetry or art museums, I find in the flight of a good drive." -Arnold Palmer

58 Comments

58 Comments

  1. PBB

    Jun 25, 2020 at 2:19 pm

    Backwards. Full toe hang putters want to close on the backswing and open on the follow through. Better for straight back / straight through strokes.

    Face balanced putters want to open on the backswing and close on the follow through. Better for strong arc putters.

    • A. Paul McDonough

      May 30, 2021 at 1:30 pm

      You are CORRECT about Toe Hang Putters closing, Face to Path, in the Backstroke and Opening Face to Path on Forward Stroke.
      However, Face Balanced Putters stay Square to Path Backwards and Forward.
      An “Arc Stroke” Player will Pull, and/or Hook Putts with a Face Balanced Putter.
      A “Straight Path” Player will be able to get away with minimal Toe Flow, but TOO MUCH Toe Flow will lead to Push and/or Slice Putts.

  2. Bruce

    May 11, 2019 at 1:35 pm

    re: If the toe of the putter is pointing at 7:30, that is generally referred to as 1/4 toe hang.”

    If 9 o’clock is face balanced and 6 o’clock is toe balanced, then 7:30 os 1/2 toe hang!

  3. Tee-Bone

    Sep 5, 2018 at 2:19 pm

    I’m no scientist, but its pretty obvious that as the shaft is swung back, the cg, if not in-line with the path of that shaft, will want to stay behind. Meaning, a heel-shafted putter wants to CLOSE going back, not OPEN. Its a nice story to sell putters, though.

  4. joro

    Sep 1, 2018 at 3:18 pm

    And yet they still stick by that old thinking. The fact is the Putt is going to go where the face is facing regardless of your stroke, so does it really matter if you are a swinging gate or back and through ? Watch on TV when they show from behind and you see by the set up where the face is pointing and the ball will go there regardless of the stroke, aim left, the ball goes left.

  5. Rich

    Aug 14, 2018 at 7:58 pm

    I’m a straight back and thru stroke guy and use a mallet and at times a 8802 and haven’t changed my stroke ,but the 8802 has a super stroke grip and that helps..

    • Geohogan

      Aug 22, 2018 at 8:37 pm

      Super stroke grip, increases counter weighting ie lowers swing weight
      and thereby less sensitive to the head, which makes it easier, more natural to control the stroke.

      • Geohogan

        Aug 22, 2018 at 8:40 pm

        Guessing your 8802 with super stroke grip is B10-C4 swing weight.

  6. Chuck

    Aug 10, 2018 at 3:28 pm

    In the lead photo, what is the putter that is second from the right?

  7. Rusty Trombone

    Aug 3, 2018 at 9:27 pm

    I went from a face balanced Musty Putter, to the Ping sigma G Tyrone, to the Scotty Cameron 5.5m, then to my dad’s old Taylormade (lots of toe hang) and started putting lights out with it. Just received the Taylormade TP Soto today, and although it doesn’t have the same plastic pure roll insert as my dad’s, (it’s got a metal “milled insert”) it has similar toe hang, and look forward to testing it out. Definitely want to try the SAM thing another poster mentioned.

  8. stuart burley

    Jul 28, 2018 at 10:15 am

    The explanation of the COG in relation to the shaft is very good. Fact is though that the opening and closing and clubface torque have been proven to be the opposite. Good golfers aim slightly left and hold the clubface off through impact (negative gamma torque). Poor putters aim slightly right and over rotate during impact (positive gamma rotation). This is easier to do with a face balanced putter due to the removal of clubface torque.

    • shawn

      Jul 29, 2018 at 10:35 pm

      No, you are wrong about the COG. What Peter has shown is incomplete because you must also consider the COG of the putter head itself which may be well behind the “sweet spot” shown on the putter face. You must determine where the red line axis intersects the putter head to fully understand putter mechanics. And if you are applying torque to the putter you are incompetent.

    • Geohogan

      Jul 29, 2018 at 11:24 pm

      Whether a pro or am, impact between the putter face and the ball is
      one, one thousandths of a second. There is no gamma rotation in one, one thousandths of a second, positive or negative.

      Stop perpetuating mythology.

  9. RBImGuy

    Jul 27, 2018 at 8:27 am

    I am a great putter and putt well with any sort of putter.
    its the Indian not the bow

  10. Harv

    Jul 26, 2018 at 7:39 pm

    I got toe hang… but I just use a nail clipper…

  11. HDTVMAN

    Jul 25, 2018 at 10:50 pm

    Another very important part of the putting decision is the grip. Thin, thick, flat, round, hard, soft…there are no right or wrongs, whatever you like.

  12. Socrates

    Jul 25, 2018 at 9:24 pm

    Seems like a regurgitation of mythology with no real data to substantiate the claims. Plenty of players on Tour (I’ll use Tour players since they are the best putters out there) who use face balanced putters and have an arcing stroke. And plenty that use a toe hang putter that are SBST. Reminds me of how people thought they knew how to make the ball curve until the “new” ball flight rules told us what really happens.

    • Caroline

      Jul 25, 2018 at 11:27 pm

      Nothing, absolutely nothing is more important in golf, pitches, chips, putting..then hand eye coordination…pros have so much of it that trying to do what they do is impossible unless you have that coordination yourself. For us amateurs golf is an adventure every time we step on the first tee. Amateurs that improve and get better only do so because they stick with what ever they found that gets them into the hole. Sadly most amateurs are at the mercy of what ever the next swing,putt, chip article some “golf” instructor has published this month. If you find a way that gets it into the hole that is your secret.

  13. Cris Kennedy

    Jul 25, 2018 at 8:36 pm

    The only putter you want is the one you paid SO MUCH MONEY FOR that you can never ever change to something else because, after all, you spent WAY MORE MONEY than you can ever justify, or even recover from financially. This way…you can never change putters. It FORCES you to learn how to use that putter; i.e., you’ll finally learn how to putt and not keep thinking, “….maybe my problem I need the latest and greatest (different) putter that___________uses on tour……!!

    • Cameron Diego

      Jul 26, 2018 at 11:09 am

      Chris, you are so right. I’ve been making payments on my Scotty Cameron putter for the last fifteen years. It is almost paid off (only have five more years to go) and in the last two years, I have only three-putted once.

  14. Terry Porvin

    Jul 25, 2018 at 8:04 pm

    There may be an error in the 2nd to last paragraph of the article. From my understanding, if a right handed golfer is missing putts right, he/she may need more to hang to square up the face & vise versa.

    • Scott S

      Jul 27, 2018 at 7:59 am

      Terry- When I read that I thought the same thing. More toe hang would create a greater amount of putter face closing during the stroke would it not? The only thing I could think of was perhaps with less toe hang the putter would not open up as much to begin with and effectively reduce overall opening/closing of the face. I would love to hear a greater explanation of this or a correction of what was written.

    • A. Paul McDonough

      May 30, 2021 at 1:44 pm

      Terry, Toe Hang Putters CLOSE – Face to Path – BACK and OPEN – FtP – going Forward. Coming from Inside to Square to Inside (Arc Stroke) with a “Closing” Face would produce either Pulls and/or Hooking Putts.
      Face Balanced stay Square to Path.
      A “Straight Line” Stroke Player can get away with minimal Toe Flow, too much would lead to Push and/or Slice Putts.

  15. JR

    Jul 25, 2018 at 2:44 pm

    I find reading the putt correctly helps me make more putts.

  16. Joe Perez

    Jul 25, 2018 at 2:15 pm

    Wonderful article, but I still can’t figure out why sometimes I prefer a face-balanced mallet and other times, one with a lot of toe-hang. ????

    • Geohogan

      Jul 28, 2018 at 12:53 am

      “Change is as good as a rest?”

      When we change it up, it stimulates our brain.
      Its not toe hang or not toe hang, its the variety that increases focus and we do better .. until we need another fix.

      Neurologists say, to change the route home from work every day. It stimulates neurons. Change in our golf prevents atrophy.

      • Billy

        Apr 19, 2019 at 5:27 am

        You hit the nail on the head. I just bay’d an O Works 1W and boy am I making putts!

  17. CJ

    Jul 25, 2018 at 1:50 pm

    While there are always typical negative responses, most poor putters can’t read greens. Using arc style trainer and putting rh only for rh players helped me tremendously. Thanks for the article OP.

  18. BL

    Jul 25, 2018 at 12:34 pm

    Toe hang can be very misleading. See: Bullseyes.

  19. dtrain

    Jul 25, 2018 at 12:22 pm

    So what does this article prove that I haven’t seen 1000 times before? How exactly is this a “deep dive” More like sticking your toe in the kiddie pool. How about some serious testing, with actual golfers?

  20. Peter Schmitt

    Jul 25, 2018 at 11:50 am

    Thanks for the discussion, folks. There’s a lot to unpack here and frankly there wasn’t enough room to talk about concepts such as toe up, face balanced at impact, and the like. This is intended to serve as a 101-level discussion to cover the “traditional” spectrum of one aspect of putter design. This should aid in having an informed discussion with a fitter, which IMO is the proper conclusion of the article. Go get a proper fitting with a qualified individual.

    • Don

      Jul 25, 2018 at 2:58 pm

      You also failed to mention how the actual “connection point” of the shaft to the putter head affects things. For example, your first picture (the one showing the face-balanced putter with the axis of the shaft pointing directly at the impact sweet spot) would actually create torque (twist) at the moment of impact because even though the axis of the shaft is pointed at the sweet spot, the shaft “connects” toward the heel. Now, contrast this to a center-shafted putter that has the exact same axis of the shaft but that connects to the putter head with no goose-neck. It would not twist when impacting the ball because it connects at the point where the sweet spot actually is. From a “physics” standpoint, a center-shafted putter would seem to be more ideal even though the axis of the shaft would be exactly the same as one with a goose-neck.

      • engineer bob

        Jul 26, 2018 at 4:20 pm

        Why is my scientifically valid comment being held for moderation?

        • Harv

          Jul 26, 2018 at 7:38 pm

          …. because if you’re too smart they will delete your comments because the don’t want the gearheads to blow up their heads…

  21. Jimmie

    Jul 25, 2018 at 9:16 am

    How about putters that are perfectly 360 degree balanced, which means either no toe hang or any toe hang you desire. It is ideal as there is no bias and perfect feel. I got one from ebay P&si-Egos putter.

    • PT

      Aug 1, 2018 at 9:00 pm

      Yeah but you notice on their website that they have no video examples of anybody actually making any putts with the putter? Nobody! But they have videos of everybody else missing.

  22. QB

    Jul 25, 2018 at 9:02 am

    You neglected to mention toe up putters, which point to 12 noon! 12 o’clock toe hang allows the face to remain square throughout the stroke, they’re nearly impossible to pull or push. Been bagging one for a couple years now and changed my game. Love my Edel brick but I believe odyssey came out with a line of toe up recently as well.

    • Jimmie

      Jul 25, 2018 at 12:16 pm

      I think Odyssey introduced a toe-down putter… just like Axis 1.

  23. Antonio

    Jul 25, 2018 at 3:16 am

    Great article, thanks!
    However I do not agree on the conclussion. By own experience If you tend to miss right a more toe Hung putter will help you close the face at impact and bring it more square, provided of course that you have and arc putter swing as you mentioned.

  24. Jim McPherson

    Jul 25, 2018 at 1:48 am

    So what is the consensus on putter fittings? Worth it?

    Or is it all about rolling what appeals to the eye and then putting in the practice?

    • HDTVMAN

      Jul 25, 2018 at 10:47 pm

      I stress to my customers, before buying a putter, have a PGA Professional go thru the SAM, Science In Motion, program. It’s 90 minutes and $50 at our shop, and well worth it. It’s used at the Callaway Performance Center and TM’s Kingdom, and will show you your arc & strike angle, helping you to pick out the correct putter. We allow customers to compare their current putter to whatever putter on the floor that they are considering purchasing. Best $50 you will spend.

  25. engineer bob

    Jul 24, 2018 at 9:57 pm

    … putter shaft axis… putter center of gravity… torque… moment… moment arm.… OK, stop here!!!
    The table top test for toe hang is good, but let’s complicate it with some simple science.
    Hold the top of your putter grip between the finger and thumb and twirl the hanging putter. If the shaft and spin axis coincide, the putter is face balanced. If the shaft rotates outside of the spin axis and wobbles, it’s not face balanced. (p.s. the vertical spin axis is called the longitudinal gravitational axis 😮 ).

  26. David

    Jul 24, 2018 at 9:21 pm

    Check out the videos from the guys at Directed Force putters if you want to see what a crock “face-balanced” putters are. They absolutely, positively do not stay “square the the line” in any way, shape or form.

    No I don’t work for Directed Force.

    Yes, I bought one.

    No, I no longer use it.

    But, hey, let’s at least TRY to get the science right….

    • gif

      Jul 24, 2018 at 9:59 pm

      Are you a “feeel” putter?

    • Geohogan

      Jul 24, 2018 at 10:40 pm

      What if a putter did stay square to the line?

      Putter ball contact is 1/1000 second for 1/4 inch.
      That is all she wrote.

      …so whether putter face stays square after impact is meaningless.
      It is just more marketing BS, like oversize grips.
      Check out the putters used by two of the greatest putters who ever lived, Bobby Jones and Bobby Locke.
      Check out their putters.

      • gif

        Jul 25, 2018 at 12:12 am

        But you don’t realize that a putter represents a golfer’s fhallic symbol… his masculinity on the greens as he bravely putt-putts the ball into the hole… ploop 😮

  27. acew/7iron

    Jul 24, 2018 at 8:51 pm

    Funny you mention big grips…I kept inching towards adding larger and larger ones until one day I realized I could not control distance or direction at all. Got a small grip and back to lagging them close or making them from time to time.

    • Geohogan

      Jul 24, 2018 at 10:33 pm

      ace, you werent adding larger and larger grips, but rather adding more and more weight to the butt end of the club. Some oversize grips will be 75 grams heavier than std(50 grams). Thats serious reduction in swing weight, maybe from D2 to C0? Serious reduction in clubhead feel.

      IMO, adjustable counter weights is the way to go with putters. Its been proven that performance improves (up to 30 days) when we make changes; and if you believe a change will make a difference for the better (placebo effect), there is 60% chance you will improve.

      • gif

        Jul 25, 2018 at 12:17 am

        75 grams minus 50 grams = 25 grams… almost 1 ounce… insignificant…. and putter swingweight is irrelevant to a tiny putting movement. You can adjust to any putter size, shape, weight if you practice enough like the pros do.

        • Geohogan

          Jul 26, 2018 at 7:50 am

          Some oversize grips will be 75 grams heavier than std(50 grams

          75+50=125 grams

  28. Geohogan

    Jul 24, 2018 at 7:51 pm

    Messing around with an old Powerbilt, Model 57 blade putter not unlike Bobby Jones, Calamity Jane. 33.5 inches long, B 4 swing weight. Calamity Jane was B8, if reference I found is correct.

    So although complete toe hanger(6 oclock), the counter balance puts so much weight in the hands, rather than the putter head,
    that the face is very controllable.

    Makes me think that counter balancing may be the reason for the fad to go to oversize grips. It must reduce Swing weight by at least 10 SW points , to add 50+ grams to the handle, with no compensation to the head.

    I’ll bet if golfers maintained swing weight when they put oversize grips on their clubs the fad would go away. ie. its counter balancing resulting in significantly lower SW, that gives more clubhead control, not fatter grips.

    • gif

      Jul 25, 2018 at 12:20 am

      Those old 1-iron shaped vintage putters were used in the days of the “stymie”… where you had to loft your ball over your opponents ball to get to the hole… without contacting his ball…!!!

      • Geohogan

        Jul 26, 2018 at 8:38 am

        Many golfers today use putters with 6-10 degrees of loft and dont do it because of stymies. For one thing it allows forward lean or hands ahead and still maintain loft to get the ball rolling.

        How much loft is remaining if putter has 2 degrees of loft and hands are ahead at impact?

      • Geohogan

        Jul 26, 2018 at 2:13 pm

        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_TCObKqRwtQ
        1:20
        Ben hogan , stymied, using an L Wedge?

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open betting preview

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As the Florida swing comes to an end, the PGA Tour makes its way to Houston to play the Texas Children’s Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course.

This will be the fourth year that Memorial Park Golf Course will serve as the tournament host. The event did not take place in 2023, but the course hosted the event in 2020, 2021 and 2022.

Memorial Park is a par-70 layout measuring 7,432 yards and features Bermudagrass greens. Historically, the main defense for the course has been thick rough along the fairways and tightly mown runoff areas around the greens. Memorial Park has a unique setup that features three Par 5’s and five Par 3’s.

The field will consist of 132 players, with the top 65 and ties making the cut. There are some big names making the trip to Houston, including Scottie Scheffler, Wyndham Clark, Tony Finau, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala.

Past Winners at Memorial Park

  • 2022: Tony Finau (-16)
  • 2021: Jason Kokrak (-10)
  • 2020: Carlos Ortiz (-13)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Memorial Park

Let’s take a look at several metrics for Memorial Park to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds:

Strokes Gained: Approach

Memorial Park is a pretty tough golf course. Golfers are penalized for missing greens and face some difficult up and downs to save par. Approach will be key.

Total Strokes Gained: Approach per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.30)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.26)
  3. Keith Mitchell (+0.97) 
  4. Tony Finau (+0.92)
  5. Jake Knapp (+0.84)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Memorial Park is a long golf course with rough that can be penal. Therefore, a combination of distance and accuracy is the best metric.

Total Strokes Gained: Off the Tee per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+0.94)
  2. Kevin Dougherty (+0.93)
  3. Cameron Champ (+0.86)
  4. Rafael Campos (+0.84)
  5. Si Woo Kim (+0.70)

Strokes Gained Putting: Bermudagrass + Fast

The Bermudagrass greens played fairly fast the past few years in Houston. Jason Kokrak gained 8.7 strokes putting on his way to victory in 2021 and Tony Finau gained in 7.8 in 2022.

Total Strokes Gained Putting (Bermudagrass) per round past 24 rounds (min. 8 rounds):

  1. Adam Svensson (+1.27)
  2. Harry Hall (+1.01)
  3. Martin Trainer (+0.94)
  4. Taylor Montgomery (+0.88)
  5. S.H. Kim (+0.86)

Strokes Gained: Around the Green

With firm and undulating putting surfaces, holding the green on approach shots may prove to be a challenge. Memorial Park has many tightly mowed runoff areas, so golfers will have challenging up-and-down’s around the greens. Carlos Ortiz gained 5.7 strokes around the green on the way to victory in 2020.

Total Strokes Gained: Around the Green per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Mackenzie Hughes (+0.76)
  2. S.H. Kim (+0.68)
  3. Scottie Scheffler (+0.64)
  4. Jorge Campillo (+0.62)
  5. Jason Day (+0.60)

Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult

Memorial Park is a long and difficult golf course. This statistic will incorporate players who’ve had success on these types of tracks in the past. 

Total Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.45)
  2. Ben Griffin (+1.75)
  3. Will Zalatoris (+1.73)
  4. Ben Taylor (+1.53)
  5. Tony Finau (+1.42)

Course History

Here are the players who have performed the most consistently at Memorial Park. 

Strokes Gained Total at Memorial Park past 12 rounds:

  1. Tyson Alexander (+3.65)
  2. Ben Taylor (+3.40)
  3. Tony Finau (+2.37)
  4. Joel Dahmen (+2.25)
  5. Patton Kizzire (+2.16)

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (24%) SG: OTT (24%); SG: Putting Bermudagrass/Fast (13%); SG: Long and Difficult (13%); SG: ARG (13%) and Course History (13%)

  1. Scottie Scheffler
  2. Wyndham Clark
  3. Tony Finau
  4. Joel Dahmen
  5. Stephan Jaeger 
  6. Aaron Rai
  7. Sahith Theegala
  8. Keith Mitchell 
  9. Jhonnatan Vegas
  10. Jason Day
  11. Kurt Kitayama
  12. Alex Noren
  13. Will Zalatoris
  14. Si Woo Kim
  15. Adam Long

2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open Picks

Will Zalatoris +2000 (Caesars)

Scottie Scheffler will undoubtedly be difficult to beat this week, so I’m starting my card with someone who I believe has the talent to beat him if he doesn’t have his best stuff.

Will Zalatoris missed the cut at the PLAYERS, but still managed to gain strokes on approach while doing so. In an unpredictable event with extreme variance, I don’t believe it would be wise to discount Zalatoris based on that performance. Prior to The PLAYERS, the 27-year-old finished T13, T2 and T4 in his previous three starts.

Zalatoris plays his best golf on long and difficult golf courses. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the category, but the eye test also tells a similar story. He’s contended at major championships and elevated events in the best of fields with tough scoring conditions.  The Texas resident should be a perfect fit at Memorial Park Golf Club.

Alex Noren +4500 (FanDuel)

Alex Noren has been quietly playing some of his best golf of the last half decade this season. The 41-year-old is coming off back-to-back top-20 finishes in Florida including a T9 at The PLAYERS in his most recent start.

In his past 24 rounds, Noren ranks 21st in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 30th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, 25th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses and 21st in Strokes Gained: Putting on fast Bermudagrass greens.

In addition to his strong recent play, the Swede also has played well at Memorial Park. In 2022, Noren finished T4 at the event, gaining 2.2 strokes off the tee and 7.0 strokes on approach for the week. In his two starts at the course, he’s gained an average of .6 strokes per round on the field, indicating he is comfortable on these greens.

Noren has been due for a win for what feels like an eternity, but Memorial Park may be the course that suits him well enough for him to finally get his elusive first PGA Tour victory.

Mackenzie Hughes +8000 (FanDuel)

Mackenzie Hughes found himself deep into contention at last week’s Valspar Championship before faltering late and finishing in a tie for 3rd place. While he would have loved to win the event, it’s hard to see the performance as anything other than an overwhelming positive sign for the Canadian.

Hughes has played great golf at Memorial Park in the past. He finished T7 in 2020, T29 in 2021 and T16 in 2022. The course fit seems to be quite strong for Hughes. He’s added distance off the tee in the past year or and ranks 8th in the field for apex height, which will be a key factor when hitting into Memorial Park’s elevated greens with steep run-off areas.

In his past 24 rounds, Hughes is the best player in the field in Strokes Gained: Around the Greens. The ability to scramble at this course will be extremely important. I believe Hughes can build off of his strong finish last week and contend once again to cement himself as a President’s Cup consideration.

Akshay Bhatia +8000 (FanDuel)

Akshay Bhatia played well last week at the Valspar and seemed to be in total control of his golf ball. He finished in a tie for 17th and shot an impressive -3 on a difficult Sunday. After struggling Thursday, Akshay shot 68-70-68 in his next three rounds.

Thus far, Bhatia has played better at easier courses, but his success at Copperhead may be due to his game maturing. The 22-year-old has enormous potential and the raw talent to be one of the best players in the world when he figures it all out.

Bhatia is a high upside play with superstar qualities and may just take the leap forward to the next stage of his career in the coming months.

Cameron Champ +12000 (FanDuel)

Cameron Champ is a player I often target in the outright betting market due to his “boom-or-bust” nature. It’s hard to think of a player in recent history with three PGA Tour wins who’s been as inconsistent as Champ has over the course of his career.

Despite the erratic play, Cam Champ simply knows how to win. He’s won in 2018, 2019 and 2021, so I feel he’s due for a win at some point this season. The former Texas A&M product should be comfortable in Texas and last week he showed us that his game is in a pretty decent spot.

Over his past 24 rounds, Champ ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 30th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses. Given his ability to spike at any given time, Memorial Park is a good golf course to target Champ on at triple digit odds.

Robert MacIntyre +12000 (FanDuel)

The challenge this week is finding players who can possibly beat Scottie Scheffler while also not dumping an enormous amount of money into an event that has a player at the top that looks extremely dangerous. Enter McIntyre, who’s another boom-or-bust type player who has the ceiling to compete with anyone when his game is clicking on all cylinders.

In his past 24 rounds, MacIntyre ranks 16th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 17th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and 10th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses.

MacIntyre’s PGA Tour season has gotten off to a slow start, but he finished T6 in Mexico, which is a course where players will hit driver on the majority of their tee shots, which is what we will see at Memorial Park. Texas can also get quite windy, which should suit MacIntyre. Last July, the Scot went toe to toe with Rory McIlroy at the Scottish Open before a narrow defeat. It would take a similar heroic effort to compete with Scheffler this year in Houston.

Ryan Moore +15000 (FanDuel)

Ryan Moore’s iron play has been absolutely unconscious over his past few starts. At The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field, he gained 6.1 strokes on approach and last week at Copperhead, he gained 9.0 strokes on approach.

It’s been a rough handful of years on Tour for the 41-year-old, but he is still a five-time winner on the PGA Tour who’s young enough for a career resurgence. Moore has chronic deterioration in a costovertebral joint that connects the rib to the spine, but has been getting more consistent of late, which is hopefully a sign that he is getting healthy.

Veterans have been contending in 2024 and I believe taking a flier on a proven Tour play who’s shown signs of life is a wise move at Memorial Park.

 

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Why the race to get better at golf might be doing more harm than good

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B.F. Skinner was one of the most important psychologists of the 20th century, developing the foundation of the development of reinforcement, and in doing so, creating the concept of behaviorism. In simple terms, this means that we are conditioned by our habits. In practical terms, it explains the divide between the few and far between elite instructors and college coaches.

To understand the application, let’s quickly review one of B.F. Skinner’s most important experiments; superstitions in the formation of behavior by pigeons. In this experiment, food was dispensed to pigeons at random intervals. Soon, according to Skinner, the pigeons began to associate whatever action they were doing at the time of the food being dispensed. According to Skinner, this conditioned that response and soon, they simply haphazardly repeated the action, failing to distinguish between cause and correlation (and in the meantime, looking really funny!).

Now, this is simply the best way to describe the actions of most every women’s college golf coach and too many instructors in America. They see something work, get positive feedback and then become conditioned to give the feedback, more and more, regardless of if it works (this is also why tips from your buddies never work!).

Go to a college event, particularly a women’s one, and you will see coaches running all over the place. Like the pigeons in the experiment, they have been conditioned into a codependent relationship with their players in which they believe their words and actions, can transform a round of golf. It is simply hilarious while being equally perturbing

In junior golf, it’s everywhere. Junior golf academies make a living selling parents that a hysterical coach and over-coaching are essential ingredients in your child’s success.

Let’s be clear, no one of any intellect has any real interest in golf — because it’s not that interesting. The people left, including most coaches and instructors, carve out a small fiefdom, usually on the corner of the range, where they use the illusion of competency to pray on people. In simple terms, they baffle people with the bullshit of pseudo-science that they can make you better, after just one more lesson.

The reality is that life is an impromptu game. The world of golf, business, and school have a message that the goal is being right. This, of course, is bad advice, being right in your own mind is easy, trying to push your ideas on others is hard. As a result, it is not surprising that the divorce rate among golf professionals and their instructors is 100 percent. The transfer rate among college players continues to soar, and too many courses have a guy peddling nefarious science to good people. In fact, we do at my course!

The question is, what impact does all this have on college-age and younger kids? At this point, we honestly don’t know. However, I am going to go out on a limb and say it isn’t good.

Soren Kierkegaard once quipped “I saw it for what it is, and I laughed.” The actions of most coaches and instructors in America are laughable. The problem is that I am not laughing because they are doing damage to kids, as well as driving good people away from this game.

The fact is that golfers don’t need more tips, secrets, or lessons. They need to be presented with a better understanding of the key elements of golf. With this understanding, they can then start to frame which information makes sense and what doesn’t. This will emancipate them and allow them to take charge of their own development.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Valspar Championship betting preview: Elite ballstrikers to thrive at Copperhead

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The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2024 Valspar Championship.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermudagrass greens overseeded with POA. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 16, 17 and 18 — also known as the “Snake Pit” — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.

The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. The field this week is solid and is a major improvement over last year’s field that felt the impact of players skipping due to a handful of “signature events” in a short span of time. 

Past Winners at Valspar Championship

  • 2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
  • 2022: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
  • 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
  • 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
  • 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
  • 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Copperhead

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can’t be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)

  1. Tony Finau (+.90)
  2. Nick Taylor (+.81)
  3. Justin Thomas (+.77)
  4. Greyson Sigg (+.69)
  5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+.67)

2. Good Drive %

The long hitters can be a bit limited here due to the tree-lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important, but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.

Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+91.3%) 
  2. Zach Johnson (+91.1%)
  3. Sam Ryder (+90.5%)
  4. Ryan Moore (+90.4%)
  5. Aaron Rai (+89.7%)

3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1.32)
  2. Keith Mitchell (+1.29)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.24)
  4. Cameron Young (+1.17) 
  5. Doug Ghim (+.95)

4. Bogey Avoidance

With the conditions likely to be difficult, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, oftentimes the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.

Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.

Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+9.0)
  2. Xander Schauffele (+9.3)
  3. Austin Cook (+9.7) 
  4. Chesson Hadley (+10.0)
  5. Greyson Sigg (+10.2)

5. Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions

Conditions will be tough this week at Copperhead. I am looking for golfers who can rise to the occasion if the course plays as difficult as it has in the past.

Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1,71) 
  2. Min Woo Lee (+1.39)
  3. Cameron Young (+1.27)
  4. Jordan Spieth (+1.08)
  5. Justin Suh (+.94)

6. Course History

That statistic will tell us which players have played well at Copperhead in the past.

Course History Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+3.75) 
  2. Sam Burns (+2.49)
  3. Davis Riley (+2.33)
  4. Matt NeSmith (+2.22)
  5. Jordan Spieth (+2.04)

The Valspar Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Good Drive % (15%), SG: BS (20%), Bogeys Avoided (13%), Course History (13%) Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions (12%).

  1. Xander Schauffele
  2. Doug Ghim
  3. Victor Perez
  4. Greyson Sigg
  5. Ryan Moore
  6. Tony Finau
  7. Justin Thomas
  8. Sam Ryder
  9. Sam Burns
  10. Lucas Glover

2024 Valspar Championship Picks

Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)

Justin Thomas will be disappointed with his finish at last week’s PLAYERS Championship, as the past champion missed the cut despite being in some decent form heading into the event. Despite the missed cut, JT hit the ball really well. In his two rounds, the two-time major champion led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach per round.

Thomas has been up and down this season. He’s missed the cut in two “signature events” but also has finishes of T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T6 at the Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am and T3 at the American Express. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in the field.

Thomas loves Copperhead. In his last three tries at the course, he’s finished T13, T3 and T10. Thomas would have loved to get a win at a big event early in the season, but avoidable mistakes and a balky putter have cost him dearly. I believe a trip to a course he loves in a field he should be able to capitalize on is the right recipe for JT to right the ship.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (FanDuel)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is playing spectacular golf in the 2024 season. He finished 2nd at the American Express, T20 at Pebble Beach and T24 at the Genesis Invitational before finishing T13 at last week’s PLAYERS Championship.

In his past 24 rounds, the South African ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 26th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. Bezuidenhout managed to work his way around TPC Sawgrass last week with minimal damage. He only made five bogeys in the entire week, which is a great sign heading into a difficult Copperhead this week.

Bezuidenhout is winless in his PGA Tour career, but certainly has the talent to win on Tour. His recent iron play tells me that this week could be a breakthrough for the 35-year-old who has eyes on the President’s Cup.

Doug Ghim +8000 (FanDuel)

Doug Ghim has finished in the top-16 of his past five starts. Most recently, Ghim finished T16 at The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field.

In his past 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 5th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. In terms of his fit for Copperhead, the 27-year-old ranks 12th in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions, making him a great fit for the course.

Ghim has yet to win on Tour, but at one point he was the top ranked Amateur golfer in the world and played in the 2017 Arnold Palmer Cup and 2017 Walker Cup. He then won the Ben Hogan award for the best male college golfer in 2018. He certainly has the talent, and there are signals aplenty that his talent in ready to take him to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour.

Sepp Straka +8000 (BetRivers)

Sepp Straka is a player who’s shown he has the type of game that can translate to a difficult Florida golf course. The former Presidents Cup participant won the 2022 Honda Classic in tough conditions and should thrive with a similar test at Copperhead.

It’s been a slow 2024 for Straka, but his performance last week at the PLAYERS Championship surely provides some optimism. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach as well as 1.88 strokes off the tee. The tee-to-green game Straka showed on a course with plenty of danger demonstrates that he can stay in control of his golf ball this week.

It’s possible that the strong performance last week was an outlier, but I’m willing to bet on a proven winner in a weaker field at a great number.

Victor Perez +12000 (FanDuel)

Victor Perez is no stranger to success in professional golf. The Frenchman has three DP World Tour wins including a Rolex Series event. He won the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, as well as the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which are some big events.

Perez earned his PGA Tour card this season and enters the week playing some fantastic golf. He finished in a tie for 16th in Florida at the Cognizant Classic and then tied for third in his most recent start at the Puerto Rico Open.

In his past 24 rounds in the field, Perez ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 1oth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Good Drive % and 15th in Bogey Avoidance.

Perez comes in as a perfect fit for Copperhead and offers serious value at triple-digit odds.

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