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Fantasy Preview: 2018 AT&T Byron Nelson

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A change of golf course this year for the AT&T Byron Nelson, as Trinity Forest Golf Club makes its debut on the PGA Tour. Analyzing new courses is always a challenge, however, Steven Bowditch helped us by tweeting his insights into Trinity Forest yesterday.

“Love Trinity Forrest. Suits ever type of player. Fairways are rolling out good amount considering zyosia.. Greens somewhat receptive.. putting around green is near impossible as they have let greenside grass grow more than usual. Better bring short game and precision iron game.”

To add to Bowditch’s insights, Trinity Forest is quite a long par-71 at just under 7,400 yards. Wide fairways mean that the longer hitters have some advantage, however, ball striking, accuracy with irons and short-game skills appear to be of paramount importance this week. Last year at TPC Four Seasons, Billy Horschel won a dramatic playoff against Jason Day.

Selected Tournament Odds (via Bet365)

  • Jordan Spieth 11/2
  • Matt Kuchar 14/1
  • Sergio Garcia 14/1
  • Hideki Matsuyama 18/1
  • Jimmy Walker 20/1
  • Billy Horschel 20/1
  • Adam Scott 22/1

Headlining the field and playing on a course where he is a member, Jordan Spieth deserves to be the heavy favorite. Spieth has said how he feels his game is in good enough shape to win and that he has a distinct advantage this week at a course he knows better than anyone else. While all this is true and all the signs point to Spieth having a good week in Texas, there remains a question mark over his putting. Spieth has posted negative Strokes Gained numbers on the greens in his last four PGA Tour events, and last week he ended his tournament by three-putting from 5 feet. It’s a concern big enough for me to ignore the price of 11/2.

Instead, another man with a fine record in Texas looks to be the way to go. Jimmy Walker (20/1, DK Price $9,500) has roared back into form in recent weeks, following up a top-20 finish at the Masters with back-to-back top-5 finishes in his last two events. Over his previous eight rounds, Walker ranks ninth in Strokes Gained-Approaching the Green, first in Strokes Gained-Short Game, second in Strokes Gained-Putting and first in Strokes Gained-Total.

Walker has also been excellent around the greens. Over his previous 24 rounds, Walker sits fifth in Strokes Gained-Around the Green, a skill that Bowditch says will be essential this week. Walker has always been wild off the tee, something that is still a concern. But by all accounts, we are getting some of the widest fairways of the year at Trinity Forest this week, and that should help Walker massively. He’s an acceptable price and looks set to get himself in the mix again in Texas.

Beau Hossler (33/1, DK Price $9,000) is enjoying a good year on the PGA Tour, and he has now made six consecutive cuts. Despite a seemingly dull week for him at The Players last week, Hossler will take massive positives from his T-46 finish. His irons were very sharp, and his Strokes Gained-Approaching the Green numbers equalled his best on Tour. In fact, Hossler was the third-highest ranked player last week from tee to green. Had it not been for a disastrous week on the greens, he would have found himself in contention.

Hossler matches up well in all the key categories this week, and he also looks a little undervalued. Over his previous 12 rounds, the American ranks 11th in Ball Striking, seventh in Strokes Gained-Tee to Green and 22nd in Strokes Gained-Around the Green. It’s a considerably weaker field this week than it has been on Tour for a while now, and if Hossler can bring his form with the long game from last week to Trinity Forest, then there’s every chance of another high finish.

Time for a couple of big prices and lower-priced men for your DraftKings lineups. Over his previous 12 rounds, Troy Merritt (150/1, DK Price $7,600) has shown the type of ball striking necessary to do well at Trinity Forest. Merritt ranks seventh in Ball Striking and third in Strokes Gained-Approaching the Green in this period, and he also sits 20th in Strokes Gained-Total. Merritt has also made seven of his last eight cuts on Tour, and he looks to be a solid choice for any DraftKings lineup this week in what is a weak field.

Consistently one of the best putters on Tour, the flat stick is the part of Aaron Baddeley’s (125/1, DK Price $7,500) game that has been off recently. If his putting were to return to him this week, then you’d be looking at a dangerous sleeper. Over the past 12 rounds, Baddeley ranks 20th in Strokes Gained-Approaching the Green. His short game has been immaculate over his previous 24 rounds, and he sits 2nd in this field for Strokes Gained-Around the Green. The Australian has also made seven of his last eight cuts on Tour, and he should prove to be a solid choice for DraftKings players this week.

Recommended Plays

  • Jimmy Walker 20/1, DK Price $9,500
  • Beau Hossler 33/1, DK Price $9,000
  • Troy Merritt 150/1, DK Price $7,600
  • Aaron Baddeley 125/1, DK Price $7,500
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Gianni is a freelance writer. He holds a Bachelor of Arts as well as a Diploma in Sports Journalism. He can be contacted at gmagliocco@outlook.com. Follow him on Twitter @giancarlomag

1 Comment

1 Comment

  1. gobrogolfo

    May 15, 2018 at 3:56 pm

    Tigger all the way ….. 😀

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Courses

Hidden Gem of the Day: Aguila Golf Course in Phoenix, Arizona

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These aren’t the traditional “top-100” golf courses in America, or the ultra-private golf clubs you can’t get onto. These are the hidden gems; they’re accessible to the public, they cost less than $50, but they’re unique, beautiful and fun to play in their own right. We recently asked our GolfWRX Members to help us find these “hidden gems.” We’re treating this as a bucket list of golf courses to play across the country, and the world. If you have a personal favorite hidden gem, submit it here!

Today’s Hidden Gem of the Day was submitted by GolfWRX member evgolfer, who takes us to Aguila Golf Course in Phoenix, Arizona. The course sits at the base of South Mountain, offering up some stunning scenic mountain views, and in his description of the track evgolfer praises the fair test that the course offers up to players of all levels.

“I love it because the price is always right as a City of Phoenix municipal course. The conditions are usually fairly decent. Also, the course presents a fair challenge to me as a high handicapper and still appeals to low caps. It is easily walkable. Not surrounded by houses, not overly tight or cramped. Designed by Gary Panks. Not overly penal.”

According to Aguila Golf Course’s website, in peak time, an 18 hole round can be booked for $29, with the rate rising to $44 should you wish to add a cart. While, off-peak the price drops to $34, which includes a cart.

@TheHectorRios

@VernonLorenz

@HSTuscon

Check out the full forum thread here, and submit your Hidden Gem.

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Opinion & Analysis

This stat indicates Tiger Woods will win major 15 in 2019

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For Tiger Woods’ fans, it’s been over 10 years waiting for his 15th major victory. Even with PGA Tour win No. 80, plenty are already looking ahead to next year’s major.

Looking into Tiger’s performance at the majors in 2018, and more recently the PGA Championship, there’s exciting news for his fans. Tiger briefly held the lead at this year’s Open Championship, only to finish in a tie for sixth. But, it’s his performance at the PGA Championship, when he stormed home for second place thanks to a final round 64, and the recent statistics behind that tournament, that will get his legion of supporters brimming with confidence.

Going back to 2015, strong performances at the PGA Championship have proven to be a great form line for the following year’s major winners. In fact, if you go back further into the records, it extends for several years prior as well. Let’s take a look at recent PGA Championship results and the players that emerged from those performances that lead to major victory the next year.

The 2017 PGA Championship was one of the strongest forms lines in recent years. Justin Thomas won the tournament by two shots, but Patrick Reed, and Francisco Molinari tied for second. Reed went on to win this year’s Masters and Molinari won the Open Championship to capture their first major championships.

At the 2016 PGA Championship, Jimmy Walker surprised the field with victory, but an emerging talent in Brooks Koepka finished tied for fourth and would go on to secure his 1st major in 2017 by winning the U.S. Open. Interesting, Patrick Reed and Francisco Molinari were also just outside the top-10.

The 2015 PGA Championship was won by Jason Day, but current world No. 1 Dustin Johnson finished tied for seventh. Dustin went on to win his first major, the U.S. Open, the following year at the Oakmont Country Club. Also worth noting: Jordan Spieth finished second to Jason Day and went close to winning the Masters the next year only to finish in second place.

Fast forward to this year’s PGA Championship where Tiger finished second behind Brooks Koepka. Is it a sign that his 10-year major drought could end in 2019? And don’t forget, if Tiger has a great chance in 2019, then surely players that finished around him in that tournament, such as Adam Scott, Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas and Gary Woodland, must have high hopes for 2019 too?

All this is true and only time will tell if the tournament form line stacks up.

Anyway you look at the 2018 PGA Championship results, it’s a great form line for 2019, and Tiger could well be in the mix in the big ones next year. With his body coping well with the rigors of the tough PGA Tour circuit, Tiger Woods’ fans can be feeling good about his chances for the 2019 season.

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Courses

Hidden Gem of the Day: Boulder Creek Golf Club in Streetsboro, Ohio

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These aren’t the traditional “top-100” golf courses in America, or the ultra-private golf clubs you can’t get onto. These are the hidden gems; they’re accessible to the public, they cost less than $50, but they’re unique, beautiful and fun to play in their own right. We recently asked our GolfWRX Members to help us find these “hidden gems.” We’re treating this as a bucket list of golf courses to play across the country, and the world. If you have a personal favorite hidden gem, submit it here! 

Today’s Hidden Gem of the Day was submitted by GolfWRX member JimGantz, who takes us to Boulder Creek Golf Club in Streetsboro, Ohio. Just 30 minutes from downtown Cleveland, Boulder Creek features over 100 feet of elevation changes, and when you look at the photos of the course, it’s easy to see why this track landed in our hidden gem thread. JimGantz gives us a concise description of the course, praising it for its nice blend of different hole types.

“Conditions are always top notch. Fluffy bunkers, thick-ish rough.  Staff are super friendly. Good mix of long and short holes which is something I like. I’m not a huge fan of playing a course where every par 3 is over 200yds. This track mixes it up.”

According to Boulder Creek Golf Club’s website, 18 holes with a cart from Monday-Thursday will set you back $40, while to play on the weekend costs $50. Seniors can play the course for as little as $25 during the week.

@BoulderCreekOH

@amgolferblog

@troymezz

Check out the full forum thread here, and submit your Hidden Gem.

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