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Fantasy Preview: 2018 AT&T Byron Nelson

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A change of golf course this year for the AT&T Byron Nelson, as Trinity Forest Golf Club makes its debut on the PGA Tour. Analyzing new courses is always a challenge, however, Steven Bowditch helped us by tweeting his insights into Trinity Forest yesterday.

“Love Trinity Forrest. Suits ever type of player. Fairways are rolling out good amount considering zyosia.. Greens somewhat receptive.. putting around green is near impossible as they have let greenside grass grow more than usual. Better bring short game and precision iron game.”

To add to Bowditch’s insights, Trinity Forest is quite a long par-71 at just under 7,400 yards. Wide fairways mean that the longer hitters have some advantage, however, ball striking, accuracy with irons and short-game skills appear to be of paramount importance this week. Last year at TPC Four Seasons, Billy Horschel won a dramatic playoff against Jason Day.

Selected Tournament Odds (via Bet365)

  • Jordan Spieth 11/2
  • Matt Kuchar 14/1
  • Sergio Garcia 14/1
  • Hideki Matsuyama 18/1
  • Jimmy Walker 20/1
  • Billy Horschel 20/1
  • Adam Scott 22/1

Headlining the field and playing on a course where he is a member, Jordan Spieth deserves to be the heavy favorite. Spieth has said how he feels his game is in good enough shape to win and that he has a distinct advantage this week at a course he knows better than anyone else. While all this is true and all the signs point to Spieth having a good week in Texas, there remains a question mark over his putting. Spieth has posted negative Strokes Gained numbers on the greens in his last four PGA Tour events, and last week he ended his tournament by three-putting from 5 feet. It’s a concern big enough for me to ignore the price of 11/2.

Instead, another man with a fine record in Texas looks to be the way to go. Jimmy Walker (20/1, DK Price $9,500) has roared back into form in recent weeks, following up a top-20 finish at the Masters with back-to-back top-5 finishes in his last two events. Over his previous eight rounds, Walker ranks ninth in Strokes Gained-Approaching the Green, first in Strokes Gained-Short Game, second in Strokes Gained-Putting and first in Strokes Gained-Total.

Walker has also been excellent around the greens. Over his previous 24 rounds, Walker sits fifth in Strokes Gained-Around the Green, a skill that Bowditch says will be essential this week. Walker has always been wild off the tee, something that is still a concern. But by all accounts, we are getting some of the widest fairways of the year at Trinity Forest this week, and that should help Walker massively. He’s an acceptable price and looks set to get himself in the mix again in Texas.

Beau Hossler (33/1, DK Price $9,000) is enjoying a good year on the PGA Tour, and he has now made six consecutive cuts. Despite a seemingly dull week for him at The Players last week, Hossler will take massive positives from his T-46 finish. His irons were very sharp, and his Strokes Gained-Approaching the Green numbers equalled his best on Tour. In fact, Hossler was the third-highest ranked player last week from tee to green. Had it not been for a disastrous week on the greens, he would have found himself in contention.

Hossler matches up well in all the key categories this week, and he also looks a little undervalued. Over his previous 12 rounds, the American ranks 11th in Ball Striking, seventh in Strokes Gained-Tee to Green and 22nd in Strokes Gained-Around the Green. It’s a considerably weaker field this week than it has been on Tour for a while now, and if Hossler can bring his form with the long game from last week to Trinity Forest, then there’s every chance of another high finish.

Time for a couple of big prices and lower-priced men for your DraftKings lineups. Over his previous 12 rounds, Troy Merritt (150/1, DK Price $7,600) has shown the type of ball striking necessary to do well at Trinity Forest. Merritt ranks seventh in Ball Striking and third in Strokes Gained-Approaching the Green in this period, and he also sits 20th in Strokes Gained-Total. Merritt has also made seven of his last eight cuts on Tour, and he looks to be a solid choice for any DraftKings lineup this week in what is a weak field.

Consistently one of the best putters on Tour, the flat stick is the part of Aaron Baddeley’s (125/1, DK Price $7,500) game that has been off recently. If his putting were to return to him this week, then you’d be looking at a dangerous sleeper. Over the past 12 rounds, Baddeley ranks 20th in Strokes Gained-Approaching the Green. His short game has been immaculate over his previous 24 rounds, and he sits 2nd in this field for Strokes Gained-Around the Green. The Australian has also made seven of his last eight cuts on Tour, and he should prove to be a solid choice for DraftKings players this week.

Recommended Plays

  • Jimmy Walker 20/1, DK Price $9,500
  • Beau Hossler 33/1, DK Price $9,000
  • Troy Merritt 150/1, DK Price $7,600
  • Aaron Baddeley 125/1, DK Price $7,500
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Gianni is a freelance writer. He holds a Bachelor of Arts as well as a Diploma in Sports Journalism. He can be contacted at gmagliocco@outlook.com. Follow him on Twitter @giancarlomag

1 Comment

1 Comment

  1. gobrogolfo

    May 15, 2018 at 3:56 pm

    Tigger all the way ….. 😀

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Podcasts

Mondays Off: An evaluation of the customer service at Oakland Hills CC

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Club pro Steve Westphal and Equipment expert Brian Knudson discuss Brooks Koepka becoming the world No.1, Paul Azinger replacing Johnny Miller, and Westphal evaluates the customer service at world renowned private facility Oakland Hills Country Club.

Check out the full podcast on SoundCloud below, or click here to listen on iTunes!

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Are golf fans and the media right to judge Brooks Koepka?

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Brooks Koepka’s relationship with observers of the game has been uncomfortable of late. You only have to go back to August of this year, when at the PGA Championship, Tiger Woods poured his heart and soul into his final round at the year’s last major with the spectators of St. Louis delivering in kind to create one of the best atmospheres at a golf event in recent years. Koepka that day, received polite applause from the crowd that Sunday evening as he tapped in nonchalantly on the 18th green to win his second major championship title of the year. After the climate that Woods had created, that final scene, it is fair to say, was a little anti-climactic.

Koepka, who ascended to the summit of the game after victory at the CJ Cup on Sunday has come under fire for being an aloof golfer who lacks personality and passion on the golf course. His lack of emotion while competing rubs many people the wrong way, especially ever since he described golf as “kind of boring” in a 2015 interview with Golf Digest.

Koepka’s blasé appearance on the golf course has led to a distant relationship between himself and both golf spectators and the media. The media’s perceived lack of appreciation for Koepka is fueled by his robotic style on the golf course. Unlike, Woods, McIlroy, or Spieth, who express themselves on the course and offer marketable narratives at all times, Koepka is considered dull and lacking a personality.

This lack of appreciation from golf’s media lights a fire under the American. Earlier this year, Koepka displayed the type of emotion that golf fans would love to see on the course when he railed against the media for the lack of attention they give him.

“You’ve got guys who will kiss up, and I’m not gonna kiss up. I don’t need to kiss anyone’s butt. I’m here to play golf. I’m not here to do anything else. I don’t need to bend over backwards to be friends with anyone [in the media], but certain guys do that because they want their names written. I’d rather be written about because of my play. Sometimes it does suck, but I’ve started to care less. Come Sunday, I won’t forget it when everyone wants to talk to me because I just won. I don’t forget things.”

It is clear what now motivates Koepka (at least in part): His indignation at the lack of respect he feels he receives from the media has given him the impetus to work even harder, resulting in a career-defining year which saw him bag two majors, the PGA Player of the Year award and the world number one ranking.

Are golf fans unfair to judge Koepka on his emotionally void performances? I don’t think they are. While it’s only right to appreciate the level of dedication, skill, and nerve that Koepka has displayed on his way to the top of the sport, fans of any sport want to root for a player who showcases their thirst for victory as imperative to their being. Think Rafael Nadal, Tom Brady, Cristiano Ronaldo etc. Athletes are admired as much for their skill as they are their desire to win that they express outwardly, energizing fans of their sport. Nowadays, sports are as much a competitive activity as they are entertainment. As long as Koepka fails to show how much he wants to win to the public, fans of the sport and the media are not going to show him the adoration and attention that he deserves.

How will Koepka’s personality affect his status in the game of golf?

Should the American continue to claim major titles and hold onto the world number one ranking, will appreciation rise? Probably not. His situation is reminiscent of tennis legends Pete Sampras and Ivan Lendl. Both world class champions throughout their illustrious careers, yet both failed to capture the imagination of fans due to their stoic and emotionally lacking approach on the court.

While the attention and love Koepka receives currently is limited for someone who is world number one, his unresponsive, passive demeanor doesn’t afford him the luxury of having a dip in form and still staying relative. Woods barely played from 2014-17, yet any news from the 14-time major winner in this period was still box office, while the likes of McIlroy and Spieth who have both suffered substantial dips in form over the past couple of years have received bundles of attention both from the media and from spectators during this period. Koepka does not have the same comfort, and he will need to stay at the top of the game or his limited attention from the golfing world will diminish.

However, it’s difficult to imagine the 28-year-old going anywhere anytime soon though. The three-time major winner has a game designed to dismantle even the most challenging of golf courses. While viewers may be unenthused by BK’s robotic nature, it’s something they may have to accept. Koepka’s feeling of being slighted by the golfing world may have had one of the most positive effects on his career, and as long as he feels unappreciated, he can allow his talent to hit back at his critics.

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The 19th Hole (Ep. 55): How to cure the chipping yips, from Master Instructor Jim Waldron

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The yips can be career-ending. Master Instructor and GolfWRX contributor Jim Waldron talks with host Michael Williams on what causes the yips and how to get rid of them. Also appearing in this episode is Dean Knuth of Heat Golf, and Bodo Siebert of Tagmarshal.

Check out the full podcast on SoundCloud below, or click here to listen on iTunes!

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