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19th Hole

Players Championship Odds: Who’s the smart money on?

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As a complement to Gianni Magliocco’s Players Championship fantasy preview, we’re happy to present the GolfWRX community a few thoughts on the fifth major from the sharps at Top Market Sports.

The Players is a notoriously difficult tournament to handicap. An extremely strong field, a course that can get penal in a hurry–and one that’s designed to avoid favoring any one type of golfer–can lead to some surprising ejections…and surprising winners.

Here are some thoughts on where to spend your money this week, courtesy of Top Market Sports.

Betting prop to consider

Mickelson Won’t Make Cut +310 – We’re going to sell Lefty here. He hasn’t missed a cut since the CareerBuilder and the performance in Mexico was sick. There’s no doubt about it…he’s firing on all cylinders right now. But Phil is a certified magnet for public money. That phenomenon will only be enhanced the first two days because he’s playing alongside Tiger. We just think that with some of the changes to the setup, he’s going to have his creative juices flowing. And that could make it an all-or-nothing week for him. At better than 3/1 it’s worth fading him for a couple bucks. Our in-house handicapping number has it in the +275 area.

Two futures to consider

Luke List 80/1 – If he misses the cut and we end up burning this ticket Friday afternoon, we’re ok with that. With as “big” as this tournament is, Vegas could be undervaluing guys who don’t have a PGA Tour win. A price like this says that an event with as much cache as The Players won’t be a place someone breaks through. We’ll take the other side of that. All due respect to this amazing tournament, it’s not a major. And until the golf futures markets start expecting the unexpected, we’re of the core belief that spots like these offer value. Banging an 80/1 ticket can provide a life changing boost to your bankroll. (*note List is 66-1 at Bovada below, other books have him higher)

Rickie Fowler 18/1 – The video of his 4-putt from 19 feet at Quail went viral on social media. That doesn’t change the fact that he’s got the hands-down purest putting stroke in the world. Never rattled, we’d be surprised if the World No. 6 doesn’t have one of the later tee times on Sunday. Of the favorites, Fowler’s your best bet. He’s the sixth favorite behind Day 13/1, Thomas 13/1, Spieth 14/1, McIlroy 15/1, and DJ 15/1. We’d be happy to back Fowler heads-up at plus money versus any of those guys this week…and we most likely will be in daily matchups. Even if he doesn’t close, it’s tough to envision a situation where he doesn’t at least threaten to win at some point. So an added benefit of this ticket is the opportunity to hedge out of some of it as the tournament progresses.

Check out Top Market Sports for more insight and round-by-round matchup bets. 

Full 2018 Players Championship odds below, c/o Bovada

Odds as of May 8 

  • Rory McIlroy +1400
  • Jason Day +1400
  • Justin Thomas +1400
  • Jordan Spieth +1400
  • Dustin Johnson +1800
  • Rickie Fowler +1800
  • Jon Rahm +2200
  • Henrik Stenson +2800
  • Justin Rose +3000
  • Paul Casey +3300
  • Phil Mickelson +3300
  • Tiger Woods +3300
  • Sergio Garcia +3500
  • Patrick Reed +3500
  • Hideki Matsuyama +4000
  • Bryson DeChambeau +4000
  • Tommy Fleetwood +5000
  • Alex Noren +5000
  • Patrick Cantlay +5000
  • Bubba Watson +6600
  • Kevin Kisner +6600
  • Marc Leishman +6600
  • Matt Kuchar +6600
  • Francesco Molinari +6600
  • Cameron Smith +6600
  • Ian Poulter +6600
  • Tony Finau +6600
  • Emiliano Grillo +6600
  • Billy Horschel +6600
  • Luke List +6600
  • Zach Johnson +6600
  • Louis Oosthuizen +7500
  • Si Woo Kim +7500
  • Brooks Koepka +8000
  • Branden Grace +8000
  • Chesson Hadley +8000
  • Webb Simpson +8000
  • Adam Hadwin +8000
  • Daniel Berger +10000
  • Rafael Cabrera Bello +10000
  • Tyrrell Hatton +10000
  • Kyle Stanley +10000
  • Russell Henley +10000
  • Charl Schwartzel +10000
  • Adam Scott +12500
  • Brian Harman +12500
  • Brandt Snedeker +12500
  • Xander Schauffele +12500
  • Kevin Chappell +12500
  • Brendan Steele +12500
  • Charley Hoffman +12500
  • Nick Watney +12500
  • Kevin Streelman +12500
  • Byeong Hun An +15000
  • Jimmy Walker +15000
  • Pat Perez +15000
  • Ryan Moore +15000
  • Matthew Fitzpatrick +15000
  • Chris Kirk +15000
  • Gary Woodland +15000
  • Beau Hossler +15000
  • Russell Knox +15000
  • Scott Piercy +17500
  • Kevin Na +20000
  • Sean O’Hair +20000
  • Jason Dufner +20000
  • J.B. Holmes +20000
  • Kiradech Aphibarnrat +20000
  • Martin Kaymer +20000
  • Martin Laird +20000
  • Ollie Schniederjans +20000
  • Shane Lowry +20000
  • Charles Howell III +20000
  • Austin Cook +20000
  • Chez Reavie +20000
  • David Lingmerth +20000
  • Harris English +20000
  • Patrick Rodgers +20000
  • Patton Kizzire +20000
  • Ryan Palmer +20000
  • Trey Mullinax +20000
  • William McGirt +20000
  • James Hahn +22500
  • Steve Stricker +25000
  • Bill Haas +25000
  • Bud Cauley +25000
  • Hao Tong Li +25000
  • Keegan Bradley +25000
  • Lucas Glover +25000
  • Ross Fisher +25000
  • Satoshi Kodaira +25000
  • Alexander Levy +25000
  • Ben Martin +25000
  • Brice Garnett +25000
  • Chris Stroud +25000
  • Jason Kokrak +25000
  • Jhonattan Vegas +25000
  • John Huh +25000
  • Grayson Murray +30000
  • Jamie Lovemark +30000
  • Rory Sabbatini +30000
  • Andrew Landry +30000
  • Anirban Lahiri +30000
  • Blayne Barber +30000
  • C.T. Pan +30000
  • Danny Lee +30000
  • Geoff Ogilvy +30000
  • Hudson Swafford +30000
  • J.J. Spaun +30000
  • Kelly Kraft +30000
  • Scott Brown +30000
  • Scott Stallings +30000
  • Jonas Blixt +35000
  • Kevin Tway +35000
  • Tom Hoge +35000
  • Brian Gay +40000
  • Chad Campbell +40000
  • Michael Kim +40000
  • Michael Thompson +40000
  • Ryan Armour +40000
  • Stewart Cink +40000
  • Ted Potter Jr. +40000
  • Wesley Bryan +40000
  • Brandon Harkins +50000
  • Martin Flores +50000
  • D.A. Points +50000
  • Danny Willett +50000
  • Derek Fathauer +50000
  • Dominic Bozzelli +50000
  • Harold Varner III +50000
  • J.J. Henry +50000
  • Mackenzie Hughes +50000
  • Nick Taylor +50000
  • Richy Werenski +50000
  • Robert Garrigus +50000
  • Robert Streb +50000
  • Rod Pampling +50000
  • Ryan Blaum +50000
  • Scott McCarron +50000
  • Sung Kang +50000
  • Tyrone Van Aswegen +50000
  • Vaughn Taylor +50000
  • Whee Kim +50000
  • Cody Gribble +75000
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19th Hole

Hungover Eddie Pepperell is the real winner of The Open

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Eddie Pepperell is never dull. The Englishman’s candor, articulateness, and skill with a pen make him a great follow on Twitter and beyond.

But even given standard Peperellian forthrightness, it was surprising to hear this: Pepperell was hungover during the final round at Carnoustie…a round in which he fired a 4-under 67.

Pepperell finished tied for sixth at 5-under, three strokes behind Francesco Molinari, and he offered this admission in his final-round press conference.

“I was a little hungover…I had too much to drink last night. And I was so frustrated yesterday, that today was really, I wouldn’t say a write-off, but I didn’t feel I was in the golf tournament. Whether I shot 69 or 73 today, it wouldn’t have been heartbreaking. But as it happens, I shot 67. So, you know, it’s a funny game.”

Hitting the course before the winds kicked up, Pepperell birdied the third, fifth, sixth, and 14th holes before rolling in another at the 17th.

He clarified that he’s no wino.

“Listen, I wouldn’t always have a drink the night before. Sometimes I have a few drinks. Tiger is minus-7, he didn’t have a drink last night, I bet. Proper athlete…I didn’t really have that much to drink, just I’m a lightweight, yeah.”

Pepperell clarified that he felt okay this morning, but woke up in the middle of the night feeling poorly. he said. Then it was time to sit back and watch as the leaders battled Carnoustie’s back nine.

Proper athlete or no, Pepperell finished tied with Woods at 5 under.

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19th Hole

Pat Perez: The R&A “do it right, not like the USGA”

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Pat Perez opened The Open, as it were, with a 2-under 69, and at the time of this writing, he’s 4 under for the second round and tied for the lead.

Clearly, there’s something Double P likes about links golf. And when he was asked whether he was surprised by how receptive the greens at Carnoustie were after his opening round, Perez shook his head with conviction and said.

“They (the R&A) do it right, not like the USGA…They’ve got the opposite [philosophy] here. I told them, you guys have it right, let the course get baked, but you’ve got the greens receptive. They’re not going to run and be out of control. They could have easily had the greens just like the fairway, but they didn’t. The course is just set up perfect.”

“The U.S. Open could have been like this more if they wanted to. They could have made the greens a bit more receptive,” Perez said. “These greens are really flat compared to Shinnecock. So that was kind of the problem there is they let it get out of control and they made the greens too hard.”

Pat Perez has no problem speaking his mind. While it has gotten him in trouble in the past, you have to respect his candor. The interesting question, as I asked in the Morning 9, is how many Tour pros agree him?

Sure, it’s unlikely any of Perez’s compatriots will join him publicly in his “R&A does it right, USGA does it wrong” stance, but it’d be very interesting to know what percentage are of the same mind.

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19th Hole

68 at the British Open in the morning, golf with hickories at St Andrews in the afternoon

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Yes, golf fans, just another day in the charmed life (or week, at least) of one Brandon Stone.

Stoney (as I assume his friends call him), came to Carnoustie on the heels of a final-round 60 to win the Scottish Open. All he did in his opening round was fire a 3-under 68. Not bad!

But his Thursday to remember was only getting started as Stone made the 25-mile trip south to the Old Course to peg it…with a set of hickory clubs! Well played, sir, well played.

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19th Hole

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