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Augusta isn’t all it’s cracked up to be? Think again…

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Augusta isn’t all it’s cracked up to be? That would be the dumbest thing said in the history of… well, anything.

I’ve attended PGA Tour events as a player and coach. I’m also the son of a former Major League Baseball player, which is a big reason why I’ve been lucky enough to be in the stands for many deciding championship games in most major sports. I say all that to say I’m not one to be awed by the atmosphere. I also received an invitation to play Augusta 25 years ago, only to respectfully decline in order to play in a Web.com Tour event.

My affair with Augusta began in 1986. Yes, that 1986. I was a freshman at UCLA and that Masters Sunday I was on the lesson tee at Bel Air Country Club with my good friends Bob May (yes, that Bob May) and my teammate Ken Tanigawa, who is now a rookie on the Champions Tour. There were also a few other juniors there as well. The UCLA coach asked us who we thought would win.

“Seve.”

”Seve.”

”The Shark.”

”The Shark.”

“Nick Price.”

He then came to me. Being a typical contrarian I said, “Jack is going to shoot 64 and everyone else is going to start choking, putting balls in the lake and leaving 8 footers short.” No, I’m not kidding, I really said exactly that, and I remember it like it was yesterday.

After I left the course, I went back to my apartment and was about to watch the final round when my friends asked me to go play pickup basketball. I put on a VHS tape (yes, I’m that old) and went to play basketball. At the time, I had no aspirations for pro golf; I wanted to be a doctor. When I came back from hooping it up, I turned on the TV and was shocked to see Nicklaus had been declared the winner as Greg Norman had just missed his putt on No. 18.

I was even more shocked to see the final round unfolded almost exactly as I had predicted. Seve’s snap hook into the water on No. 15; Norman’s block into the stands on No. 18; Kite’s steer job eight-footer on No. 18 that was short.

I spent the next four hours watching, and something came over me that I had not ever experienced. It was something that most 18-year-old boys are too emotionally stunted to feel: overwhelming sentiment. As the birdies (and eagle) mounted, I started sobbing out of sheer excitement and joy. When Nicklaus almost made a hole-in-one on No. 16 and Jim Nantz uttered his famous, “The Bear… has come out of hibernation,” I had a complete emotional meltdown.

Even today, just thinking about that moment and line makes me well up (it’s happening even as I type this). If I were in a movie, I would need no acting classes to learn how to have an emotional reaction. Just play the 16th hole of the 1986 Masters for me. When Jack made the putt on No. 17 (the guy in the background covering his ears always cracks me up), I lost my mind and did a celebratory lap around my complex. That day, I no longer wanted to be a doctor. I wanted to play my way to Augusta and win just like Jack.

Thirty-two years later, after many failed attempts at the PGA Tour and my dumb decision to decline an invitation to play there, I made my first trip to Augusta last week for the 2018 Masters. You can see the videos and photos I took on my instagram here: https://www.instagram.com/montescheinblum/

The parking… free. The concessions… less expensive than any muni. The Augusta merchandise was so reasonably priced, I spent way more than I planned to. It was like going to Costco. I was going to buy one small token to commemorate my trip, but the prices were so ridiculous I lost my mind.

For the first 50 years of my life, I had no clue what sugar plumb fairies were. As I walked out onto the grass and the expanse of the course was in my view, the sugar plumbs weren’t just dancing — they were throwing a rave in my head. If you asked me when Christmas was, I’d have said it started 30 seconds ago.

At that point, I was no longer a former pro, high-level golfer whose hopes of playing in the Masters were dashed long ago. I was that 18-year-old boy at the genesis of his career… and a tourist. I felt like skipping and galloping my way down to Amen Corner and around Nos. 15 and 16. I have played more than half of the top-50 golf courses in the world. I’ve also played about 10 U.S. Open tracks and all of the Open Championship tracks except Murifield. With all due respect, all of them are dumps in comparison… all of them.

As I arrived at Amen Corner, I nearly cried with the same joy as when my two children were born, but I survived the onslaught of emotion. Walking down the right side of the 15th fairway, I was amazed at how wide the fairway was before the trees on the left pinch in… and how ******* scary (profanity is sometimes necessary to convey degree) the second shot into that paper thin deep green looks from the top of the hill.

It was now time for me to see No. 16, the symbol of my emotional outburst over 30 years ago. The place I approached from was under and to the left of two giant grandstands that cover the tee box. When I emerged, it was nirvana. It is one of the most gorgeous holes I have ever seen, and I’ve played No. 18 at Pebble Beach and No. 12 at Old Head. The lake and hole was to my right, and a giant hill that turns into a makeshift grandstand of die cast folding chairs on my left.

No one was around and I lost it. I was a mess. There were no tissue concession nearby and only the fancy “Players Only” bathroom in sight. I was denied entry by the attendant when I complained of “sunblock burning my eyes.” He did get me some tissue and a wet paper towel to wash the “sunblock” out.

That brings me to another point. I have never been to any sporting event, or anywhere for that matter, where the volunteers and security are so nice and polite. No power trips. “Sir, you’re not supposed to stand there. I would really appreciate it if you would keep walking.” It’s probably why the other fans are so polite. Everyone is so happy to be there. There is no pushing or shoving. People say “excuse me.” They make room for you. They “sit down in front” without you even asking. Nobody is yelling: “Mashed Potatoes” or ”Baba Booey” or ”You Da Man” or ”Get in the Hole.” The Masters is the way society should be.

I simply cannot overstate the magnificence of the course conditions and the elevation changes in the holes and greens. The perfection of design and just sheer awesomeness is on all sides of you at all times. At other golf courses, the severity would be Mickey Mouse. At Augusta, it’s purposeful.

The famous pimento cheese sandwich (all of $1.50) is as succulent as a Maine Lobster tail in drawn butter at a five-star restaurant. The Coca-Cola is as refreshing and delightful as the finest Dom Perignon… and it’s because you’re at Augusta National Golf Club. Brussel sprouts, tofu and even McDonald’s Filet-o-Fish sandwiches would be edible on the grounds of Augusta.

After the Wayne’s World dream sequence faded, I thought it was about time to watch some actual golf. I took some very nice video of Henrik Stenson (above). Stenson became a victim of the very difficult right pin on No. 14, where he spun down into the collection area where par was unlikely. While I was filing the scene he hit a second ball from the same spot, adjusted and hit it in gimme range.

Most of the golfers had played their practice round before I got there, so I saw very little actual golf until I decided to go watch some of the par-3 contest. I saw and got video of Rickie Fowler lipping out and almost making an ace on No. 1… only to have Jordan Spieth hit nearly the same shot and spin it back to a few inches. Justin Thomas, Patrick Reed and a few others followed and again, I got some very nice video of their shots.

As I was about to go walk the less famous, but probably more difficult front nine, I heard, “Here comes Nicklaus, Watson and Player.” Holy ***! My boyhood hero and two of his great rivals headed to the first tee. For you old time Saturday Night Live fans, I was definitely verklempt.

I saw an amazing time machine-level event. Nicklaus, Player and Watson all hit it within 2-3 feet and as you know, Watson won it all. I am sorry (and happy) to say I missed the grandson’s hole-in-one on No. 9. If I had been there, a 50-year-old man blubbering like a small child would have made SportsCenter’s Not Top 10. I couldn’t wait to come back and watch actual tournament play on Friday.

When I arrived on Friday, I was made aware of yet another one of Augusta’s awesome traditions: the folding chair stands. You go buy a very high quality folding chair that comes in an over the shoulder carrying case (for only $30). There is a spot for a luggage-style name tag, and all over the golf course in very choice spots on every hole there are areas marked for these chairs to create makeshift grandstands. You get to the course, find your favorite spot, open your chair, drape the case over the back and go off to all places viewing the greatest golf has to offer. Your spot is reserved for you whenever you choose to return.

I chose a spot midway up the 16th hole (where else did you think I would pick?). I could see and follow the tee shots all the way to the green and watch the putts fall as they may. It was also the perfect angle to look back up the 15th fairway to the top of the hill and watch the nausea-inducing shots into the green. I’m not going to go into too much detail about the actual golf, as that was being covered by the media, but I did witness some pretty amazing stuff.

I stood in a very nice spot behind the 14th tee and watched the game’s best from less than 10 paces behind the tee. Finau, Bubba, Jordan, Rickie, DJ, JT, Rory, Gary Woodland (who was the most impressive) and many, many others. I then ventured to possibly the best spot in the house: the 11th tee. It’s way back up the hill in a secluded spot. You can literally get on the ropes and be 10 feet from the golfers. Day, Reed, Oosthuizen, Rose, Garcia and many, many more.

What I also saw on the 11th tee was four young lads having a special moment. I’d say they were between the ages of 16-18. They were clad in black pants (it was 80+ degrees) and a Nike red shirt. I know it’s obscure, but I’ll force you to guess who they were fans of. When the tee sheet showed that the next group was going to include one Eldrick Woods, the anticipation the four young men were creating was rubbing off on the rest of us.

I have stood next to Tiger on a PGA Tour range and chatted with him briefly. This was not my first rodeo… but that was not during the Masters at Augusta National Golf Club. Just like the Fab Four standing shoulder to shoulder right next to me, I and the other patrons were showing a level of anticipation that can only be seen by teenage girls at a Justin Bieber concert… only in this case, the man walking up to us merits this sort of adulation and worship.

Tiger was not playing well, and he had his head down when he walked on the tee. When he looked up, the first thing he saw was his four doppelgängers and he laughed out loud. He was visibly touched and gave all four a fist bump. I am sorry to tell their moms, but I believe they will never wash those hands again.

After the interlude with Eldrick, I decided to go to my spot on No. 16. Among other things, I saw Oosthuizen get up and down to the right pin from the right bunker, hitting it to six inches. It was maybe one of the five greatest shots I have ever seen in my life as a fan and player. Even Oosthuizen laughed. I also saw DJ from the same line on the edge of the green, 10 feet away, putt the ball down the slope 40 feet away and make the comebacker for par, much to the delight of the roaring crowd.

I also saw Leishman’s great hook around the trees into No. 15. There was a huge bang when his ball was landing, and it seemed to those of us on No. 16 that he had hit the grandstand and kicked across the green to that spot. Not until I saw the highlights did I know it was a coincidence. After some wonderful time on No. 16 and watching the shots down the hill on No. 15, the day was over, as was my time at Augusta. I had a 13-man golf school in Atlanta Saturday though Monday and wouldn’t have a chance to come back.

I destroyed my credit card balance at the pro shop on the way out, which only had a 5-10 minute wait as they have 16 checkout stands with four attendants at each. As I walked to my car and lamented not being able to see the back nine on Sunday, I couldn’t help but start planning my next trip. I started to pull up Priceline to check hotels for next year, but my cell phone was in the car as they are not allowed on the grounds. The Masters actually has scanners checking people trying to sneak them in.

“Crap, already sold out for next year, except a zero-star hotel for $800 a night. Wait a minute… the course where I am holding the school is less than two hours away from Augusta. The last tee time is not until nearly 3 p.m. I bet if I ask the guys to start early, I can make it back to watch the last few groups tee off on No. 1 and catch anyone making a charge on the back 9.”

Saturday at lunch, I asked the group if they’d do me a favor. Unanimously, they said they were going to kick me out at noon on Sunday as they were sick of me already. They say the Masters doesn’t start until the back nine Sunday, and I was about to experience that first hand.

I got there about 40 minutes before the final group teed off. I rushed down to No. 16 only to find every inch of choice space taken already. Even the terrible space was overloaded. I shouted an expletive and a nice lady tapped me on the shoulder. I profusely apologized and relayed the reason for my angst. She knew why I uttered the profanity, totally understood, and she told me she and her husband were leaving the choicest of spots just across the bunker about 15 paces from the famous Sunday back left pin that provoked the tear dropping line from Jim Nantz in 1986.

I was overjoyed. I rushed back up the hill to watch the last two groups tee off on No. 1, then back down to my spot were I enjoyed myself immensely. I noticed Jordan Spieth was making a charge. They talk on TV of the roars echoing through the trees. That is a false representation. If you’re in the right spot and the roar is in the right place, it is a literal tsunami of sound waves rushing up and down the course through the shoots of trees.

I hurdled several people and moved my 230 pounds of childlike enthusiasm toward the No. 11 tee, where I followed Spieth up close for the rest of his riveting back nine. I saw the tee shot on No. 12 where he raised in hands in mach triumph for avoiding the disaster of two years ago and the made putt that sent Amen Corner into a frenzy. I was as close as anyone when he switched to the hybrid on No. 13 and was in my choice real estate when he bombed it in on No. 16. I surpassed my normal 11-inch vertical leap by at least 6 feet it was so exciting. I also saw the disastrous Spieth Spur Strike or Jordan’s Juniper Jostling, if you will.

That disappointed me. I wanted to see the history, but I did see Rickie’s great birdie and Reed’s gut checking save to win, both on No. 18. Paulina Gretzky (DJ’s wife) was standing shoulder to shoulder with me when DJ tee’d off on No. 12 Sunday. So just like the boys on No. 11 Friday, I’m never washing my shoulder again… or maybe just the shirt.

My amazing 32-year journey was close to the end. I bolted for my car with a quick stop to ruin some more plastic in the pro shop. I hope everyone knows they’re getting Augusta swag for Christmas.

In the movie Field of Dreams, the Ghost of Joe Jackson (Ray Liotta) asks Ray Kinsella (Kevin Kostner) if the field they are on is heaven. Ray responds, “No, it’s Iowa.” With all due respect to Iowa, heaven is in Augusta, Georgia. This is one light from the afterlife you definitely want to walk toward.

Your Reaction?
  • 344
  • LEGIT20
  • WOW18
  • LOL2
  • IDHT2
  • FLOP2
  • OB1
  • SHANK17

Monte Scheinblum is a former World Long Drive Champion and Web.com Tour player. For more insights and details on this article, as well as further instruction from Monte go to rebelliongolf.com

26 Comments

26 Comments

  1. Matt B

    Apr 13, 2018 at 7:52 pm

    A very enjoyable read. Thanks Monte!

    (P.S. Surely it’s “mock” triumph and Kevin Costner!)

  2. golferOG

    Apr 11, 2018 at 11:17 pm

    Great read but for someone with as much respect for Augusta you should know it doesn’t have a front/back nine. If you pay attention they refer to the separate nines as the first and second nine. Research how different analysts have been corrected for such mistakes

  3. Tom54

    Apr 11, 2018 at 9:55 pm

    Monte that was a well written article. I read it all through to the end. I was lucky to attend the ‘09 Masters and I too felt like it was a religious event. We were shuttled to a gate not exactly knowing where on the course we were. Imagine what it was like when we walked past some bleachers only to find that we were right by the famous 13th green! My friend and I walked every hole because we wanted to see it all. Every thing you wrote about in your essay perfectly describes why this course, this tournament, and everything about the Masters cannot quite adequately be described unless one is lucky to see it first hand. Thanks for pretty much describing what it truly is all about

  4. A. Commoner

    Apr 11, 2018 at 8:19 pm

    Pretty similar to reading a few pages in a sophomore’s personal diary.

  5. Art Williams

    Apr 11, 2018 at 4:22 pm

    Last I read DJ and the Great One’s daughter were still single. How did you manage all those tickets? Connections? Great story for someone who turned down an offer to play golf at the Cathedral of courses.

  6. ogo

    Apr 11, 2018 at 2:32 pm

    Even Flow or Evenflo ??!!!
    https://www.evenflofeeding.com/

  7. Neil C

    Apr 11, 2018 at 12:25 pm

    Monte, I never knew you were such a great writer. That was awesome.

  8. RLawrence

    Apr 11, 2018 at 11:54 am

    You absolutely made my day Mr. Scheinblum! I felt as if I were there with and you actually caused my eyes to well up as you described your own excitement. I hope you write more articles in the future as I am hooked. Thank you.

  9. larrybud

    Apr 11, 2018 at 11:51 am

    FYI “I’m a medium”

  10. jc

    Apr 11, 2018 at 11:39 am

    nice article monte,,,remember you and your dodge viper at upland hills…

  11. Socrates

    Apr 10, 2018 at 11:26 pm

    Who are the 7 losers who voted Flop, OB or Shank?

    • Willy Wonka

      Apr 11, 2018 at 1:43 pm

      It’s now 11-1-1.

      These people hate golf, hate Monte or hate themselves.

  12. ogo

    Apr 10, 2018 at 10:27 pm

    Even Flow or Evenflo ?
    https://www.evenflofeeding.com/

  13. Wayne

    Apr 10, 2018 at 8:49 pm

    Last Tuesday, I celebrated my 53rd birthday at Augusta with my oldest son. Just like Monte, I have never seen a course as beautiful. I’ve been to 4 other tour stops and while nice, they just don’t compare. I cannot accurately articulate what I saw and my feelings that day. Monte’s story is very similar to the way I felt. Thanks for the well written story.

  14. Mike Pollard

    Apr 10, 2018 at 8:24 pm

    Two years ago I had the same experience after waiting for nearly 60 years to attend my first MASTERS! I teared up then and again reading your about your experience……..it affects us all in a similar way.

    ps…….let’s figure out a way to do it AGAIN!!

  15. Tony Lynam

    Apr 10, 2018 at 8:15 pm

    Monte,

    I too am in my 50s and went to my first Master last Friday. As you go down the walkway with the practice area to your left, the sun was just starting to come up and I saw my first glimpse of that practice area and my eyes filled with tears. Then walking past the Patron’s golf shop and seeing the magistracy score board with all the country flags, I felt like Rudy walking onto the Notre Dame football field for the first time, LOL. Walking down to Amen Corner I was overcome with emotion again! P.S. I spent more than I had planned on too in the golf shop.

  16. J Zilla

    Apr 10, 2018 at 8:00 pm

    Sugar PLUM* Fairies.

    Sugar plumb fairies are what plumbers need to unclog my toilet most of the time.

  17. Ernest J.

    Apr 10, 2018 at 7:41 pm

    The 3 DB’s that Shanked this article have obviously never been on the grounds at Augusta! Very well DONE Monte!

  18. Patrick

    Apr 10, 2018 at 6:40 pm

    Hands down THE best major of them all…. I wish all tournaments were ran like this. Not hearing one baba booey, get in the hole (par 5 tee shot), mashed potatoes… was just the best.

  19. Ted McRoger

    Apr 10, 2018 at 6:32 pm

    What society should be is right. We would have it but we let the left destroy everything commencing 50 years ago.

    • Gill Weir

      Apr 10, 2018 at 11:10 pm

      Totally agree Ted. We have self sabotaged this great Country of ours to regressivism. Augusta will always be a pipe dream of what could have been.

  20. Chuck aka wmblake2000

    Apr 10, 2018 at 5:51 pm

    Now that was a write-up! Took me right on the journey with you. So glad you got to go Sunday, that your students accommodated. I think my favorite was the 4 boys in black/red… this memory will last their entire lifetime.

  21. Derek

    Apr 10, 2018 at 5:20 pm

    Great article Monte! It is truly a one of kind experience – can’t wait to swap some stories during the Sioux Falls school. I’ve been lucky to go to a practice round in 2016 and 2018 each now, and am hoping to add a tournament day in the future.

  22. Brandon

    Apr 10, 2018 at 5:18 pm

    Nice write up Monte! Good to meet you on Sunday back behind the 17 green.

  23. DrKell

    Apr 10, 2018 at 5:00 pm

    Was at the Masters last week as well. I think this just about sums it up…
    A great read.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open betting preview

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As the Florida swing comes to an end, the PGA Tour makes its way to Houston to play the Texas Children’s Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course.

This will be the fourth year that Memorial Park Golf Course will serve as the tournament host. The event did not take place in 2023, but the course hosted the event in 2020, 2021 and 2022.

Memorial Park is a par-70 layout measuring 7,432 yards and features Bermudagrass greens. Historically, the main defense for the course has been thick rough along the fairways and tightly mown runoff areas around the greens. Memorial Park has a unique setup that features three Par 5’s and five Par 3’s.

The field will consist of 132 players, with the top 65 and ties making the cut. There are some big names making the trip to Houston, including Scottie Scheffler, Wyndham Clark, Tony Finau, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala.

Past Winners at Memorial Park

  • 2022: Tony Finau (-16)
  • 2021: Jason Kokrak (-10)
  • 2020: Carlos Ortiz (-13)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Memorial Park

Let’s take a look at several metrics for Memorial Park to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds:

Strokes Gained: Approach

Memorial Park is a pretty tough golf course. Golfers are penalized for missing greens and face some difficult up and downs to save par. Approach will be key.

Total Strokes Gained: Approach per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.30)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.26)
  3. Keith Mitchell (+0.97) 
  4. Tony Finau (+0.92)
  5. Jake Knapp (+0.84)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Memorial Park is a long golf course with rough that can be penal. Therefore, a combination of distance and accuracy is the best metric.

Total Strokes Gained: Off the Tee per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+0.94)
  2. Kevin Dougherty (+0.93)
  3. Cameron Champ (+0.86)
  4. Rafael Campos (+0.84)
  5. Si Woo Kim (+0.70)

Strokes Gained Putting: Bermudagrass + Fast

The Bermudagrass greens played fairly fast the past few years in Houston. Jason Kokrak gained 8.7 strokes putting on his way to victory in 2021 and Tony Finau gained in 7.8 in 2022.

Total Strokes Gained Putting (Bermudagrass) per round past 24 rounds (min. 8 rounds):

  1. Adam Svensson (+1.27)
  2. Harry Hall (+1.01)
  3. Martin Trainer (+0.94)
  4. Taylor Montgomery (+0.88)
  5. S.H. Kim (+0.86)

Strokes Gained: Around the Green

With firm and undulating putting surfaces, holding the green on approach shots may prove to be a challenge. Memorial Park has many tightly mowed runoff areas, so golfers will have challenging up-and-down’s around the greens. Carlos Ortiz gained 5.7 strokes around the green on the way to victory in 2020.

Total Strokes Gained: Around the Green per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Mackenzie Hughes (+0.76)
  2. S.H. Kim (+0.68)
  3. Scottie Scheffler (+0.64)
  4. Jorge Campillo (+0.62)
  5. Jason Day (+0.60)

Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult

Memorial Park is a long and difficult golf course. This statistic will incorporate players who’ve had success on these types of tracks in the past. 

Total Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.45)
  2. Ben Griffin (+1.75)
  3. Will Zalatoris (+1.73)
  4. Ben Taylor (+1.53)
  5. Tony Finau (+1.42)

Course History

Here are the players who have performed the most consistently at Memorial Park. 

Strokes Gained Total at Memorial Park past 12 rounds:

  1. Tyson Alexander (+3.65)
  2. Ben Taylor (+3.40)
  3. Tony Finau (+2.37)
  4. Joel Dahmen (+2.25)
  5. Patton Kizzire (+2.16)

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (24%) SG: OTT (24%); SG: Putting Bermudagrass/Fast (13%); SG: Long and Difficult (13%); SG: ARG (13%) and Course History (13%)

  1. Scottie Scheffler
  2. Wyndham Clark
  3. Tony Finau
  4. Joel Dahmen
  5. Stephan Jaeger 
  6. Aaron Rai
  7. Sahith Theegala
  8. Keith Mitchell 
  9. Jhonnatan Vegas
  10. Jason Day
  11. Kurt Kitayama
  12. Alex Noren
  13. Will Zalatoris
  14. Si Woo Kim
  15. Adam Long

2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open Picks

Will Zalatoris +2000 (Caesars)

Scottie Scheffler will undoubtedly be difficult to beat this week, so I’m starting my card with someone who I believe has the talent to beat him if he doesn’t have his best stuff.

Will Zalatoris missed the cut at the PLAYERS, but still managed to gain strokes on approach while doing so. In an unpredictable event with extreme variance, I don’t believe it would be wise to discount Zalatoris based on that performance. Prior to The PLAYERS, the 27-year-old finished T13, T2 and T4 in his previous three starts.

Zalatoris plays his best golf on long and difficult golf courses. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the category, but the eye test also tells a similar story. He’s contended at major championships and elevated events in the best of fields with tough scoring conditions.  The Texas resident should be a perfect fit at Memorial Park Golf Club.

Alex Noren +4500 (FanDuel)

Alex Noren has been quietly playing some of his best golf of the last half decade this season. The 41-year-old is coming off back-to-back top-20 finishes in Florida including a T9 at The PLAYERS in his most recent start.

In his past 24 rounds, Noren ranks 21st in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 30th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, 25th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses and 21st in Strokes Gained: Putting on fast Bermudagrass greens.

In addition to his strong recent play, the Swede also has played well at Memorial Park. In 2022, Noren finished T4 at the event, gaining 2.2 strokes off the tee and 7.0 strokes on approach for the week. In his two starts at the course, he’s gained an average of .6 strokes per round on the field, indicating he is comfortable on these greens.

Noren has been due for a win for what feels like an eternity, but Memorial Park may be the course that suits him well enough for him to finally get his elusive first PGA Tour victory.

Mackenzie Hughes +8000 (FanDuel)

Mackenzie Hughes found himself deep into contention at last week’s Valspar Championship before faltering late and finishing in a tie for 3rd place. While he would have loved to win the event, it’s hard to see the performance as anything other than an overwhelming positive sign for the Canadian.

Hughes has played great golf at Memorial Park in the past. He finished T7 in 2020, T29 in 2021 and T16 in 2022. The course fit seems to be quite strong for Hughes. He’s added distance off the tee in the past year or and ranks 8th in the field for apex height, which will be a key factor when hitting into Memorial Park’s elevated greens with steep run-off areas.

In his past 24 rounds, Hughes is the best player in the field in Strokes Gained: Around the Greens. The ability to scramble at this course will be extremely important. I believe Hughes can build off of his strong finish last week and contend once again to cement himself as a President’s Cup consideration.

Akshay Bhatia +8000 (FanDuel)

Akshay Bhatia played well last week at the Valspar and seemed to be in total control of his golf ball. He finished in a tie for 17th and shot an impressive -3 on a difficult Sunday. After struggling Thursday, Akshay shot 68-70-68 in his next three rounds.

Thus far, Bhatia has played better at easier courses, but his success at Copperhead may be due to his game maturing. The 22-year-old has enormous potential and the raw talent to be one of the best players in the world when he figures it all out.

Bhatia is a high upside play with superstar qualities and may just take the leap forward to the next stage of his career in the coming months.

Cameron Champ +12000 (FanDuel)

Cameron Champ is a player I often target in the outright betting market due to his “boom-or-bust” nature. It’s hard to think of a player in recent history with three PGA Tour wins who’s been as inconsistent as Champ has over the course of his career.

Despite the erratic play, Cam Champ simply knows how to win. He’s won in 2018, 2019 and 2021, so I feel he’s due for a win at some point this season. The former Texas A&M product should be comfortable in Texas and last week he showed us that his game is in a pretty decent spot.

Over his past 24 rounds, Champ ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 30th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses. Given his ability to spike at any given time, Memorial Park is a good golf course to target Champ on at triple digit odds.

Robert MacIntyre +12000 (FanDuel)

The challenge this week is finding players who can possibly beat Scottie Scheffler while also not dumping an enormous amount of money into an event that has a player at the top that looks extremely dangerous. Enter McIntyre, who’s another boom-or-bust type player who has the ceiling to compete with anyone when his game is clicking on all cylinders.

In his past 24 rounds, MacIntyre ranks 16th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 17th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and 10th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses.

MacIntyre’s PGA Tour season has gotten off to a slow start, but he finished T6 in Mexico, which is a course where players will hit driver on the majority of their tee shots, which is what we will see at Memorial Park. Texas can also get quite windy, which should suit MacIntyre. Last July, the Scot went toe to toe with Rory McIlroy at the Scottish Open before a narrow defeat. It would take a similar heroic effort to compete with Scheffler this year in Houston.

Ryan Moore +15000 (FanDuel)

Ryan Moore’s iron play has been absolutely unconscious over his past few starts. At The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field, he gained 6.1 strokes on approach and last week at Copperhead, he gained 9.0 strokes on approach.

It’s been a rough handful of years on Tour for the 41-year-old, but he is still a five-time winner on the PGA Tour who’s young enough for a career resurgence. Moore has chronic deterioration in a costovertebral joint that connects the rib to the spine, but has been getting more consistent of late, which is hopefully a sign that he is getting healthy.

Veterans have been contending in 2024 and I believe taking a flier on a proven Tour play who’s shown signs of life is a wise move at Memorial Park.

 

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Why the race to get better at golf might be doing more harm than good

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B.F. Skinner was one of the most important psychologists of the 20th century, developing the foundation of the development of reinforcement, and in doing so, creating the concept of behaviorism. In simple terms, this means that we are conditioned by our habits. In practical terms, it explains the divide between the few and far between elite instructors and college coaches.

To understand the application, let’s quickly review one of B.F. Skinner’s most important experiments; superstitions in the formation of behavior by pigeons. In this experiment, food was dispensed to pigeons at random intervals. Soon, according to Skinner, the pigeons began to associate whatever action they were doing at the time of the food being dispensed. According to Skinner, this conditioned that response and soon, they simply haphazardly repeated the action, failing to distinguish between cause and correlation (and in the meantime, looking really funny!).

Now, this is simply the best way to describe the actions of most every women’s college golf coach and too many instructors in America. They see something work, get positive feedback and then become conditioned to give the feedback, more and more, regardless of if it works (this is also why tips from your buddies never work!).

Go to a college event, particularly a women’s one, and you will see coaches running all over the place. Like the pigeons in the experiment, they have been conditioned into a codependent relationship with their players in which they believe their words and actions, can transform a round of golf. It is simply hilarious while being equally perturbing

In junior golf, it’s everywhere. Junior golf academies make a living selling parents that a hysterical coach and over-coaching are essential ingredients in your child’s success.

Let’s be clear, no one of any intellect has any real interest in golf — because it’s not that interesting. The people left, including most coaches and instructors, carve out a small fiefdom, usually on the corner of the range, where they use the illusion of competency to pray on people. In simple terms, they baffle people with the bullshit of pseudo-science that they can make you better, after just one more lesson.

The reality is that life is an impromptu game. The world of golf, business, and school have a message that the goal is being right. This, of course, is bad advice, being right in your own mind is easy, trying to push your ideas on others is hard. As a result, it is not surprising that the divorce rate among golf professionals and their instructors is 100 percent. The transfer rate among college players continues to soar, and too many courses have a guy peddling nefarious science to good people. In fact, we do at my course!

The question is, what impact does all this have on college-age and younger kids? At this point, we honestly don’t know. However, I am going to go out on a limb and say it isn’t good.

Soren Kierkegaard once quipped “I saw it for what it is, and I laughed.” The actions of most coaches and instructors in America are laughable. The problem is that I am not laughing because they are doing damage to kids, as well as driving good people away from this game.

The fact is that golfers don’t need more tips, secrets, or lessons. They need to be presented with a better understanding of the key elements of golf. With this understanding, they can then start to frame which information makes sense and what doesn’t. This will emancipate them and allow them to take charge of their own development.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Valspar Championship betting preview: Elite ballstrikers to thrive at Copperhead

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The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2024 Valspar Championship.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermudagrass greens overseeded with POA. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 16, 17 and 18 — also known as the “Snake Pit” — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.

The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. The field this week is solid and is a major improvement over last year’s field that felt the impact of players skipping due to a handful of “signature events” in a short span of time. 

Past Winners at Valspar Championship

  • 2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
  • 2022: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
  • 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
  • 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
  • 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
  • 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Copperhead

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can’t be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)

  1. Tony Finau (+.90)
  2. Nick Taylor (+.81)
  3. Justin Thomas (+.77)
  4. Greyson Sigg (+.69)
  5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+.67)

2. Good Drive %

The long hitters can be a bit limited here due to the tree-lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important, but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.

Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+91.3%) 
  2. Zach Johnson (+91.1%)
  3. Sam Ryder (+90.5%)
  4. Ryan Moore (+90.4%)
  5. Aaron Rai (+89.7%)

3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1.32)
  2. Keith Mitchell (+1.29)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.24)
  4. Cameron Young (+1.17) 
  5. Doug Ghim (+.95)

4. Bogey Avoidance

With the conditions likely to be difficult, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, oftentimes the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.

Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.

Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+9.0)
  2. Xander Schauffele (+9.3)
  3. Austin Cook (+9.7) 
  4. Chesson Hadley (+10.0)
  5. Greyson Sigg (+10.2)

5. Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions

Conditions will be tough this week at Copperhead. I am looking for golfers who can rise to the occasion if the course plays as difficult as it has in the past.

Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1,71) 
  2. Min Woo Lee (+1.39)
  3. Cameron Young (+1.27)
  4. Jordan Spieth (+1.08)
  5. Justin Suh (+.94)

6. Course History

That statistic will tell us which players have played well at Copperhead in the past.

Course History Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+3.75) 
  2. Sam Burns (+2.49)
  3. Davis Riley (+2.33)
  4. Matt NeSmith (+2.22)
  5. Jordan Spieth (+2.04)

The Valspar Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Good Drive % (15%), SG: BS (20%), Bogeys Avoided (13%), Course History (13%) Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions (12%).

  1. Xander Schauffele
  2. Doug Ghim
  3. Victor Perez
  4. Greyson Sigg
  5. Ryan Moore
  6. Tony Finau
  7. Justin Thomas
  8. Sam Ryder
  9. Sam Burns
  10. Lucas Glover

2024 Valspar Championship Picks

Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)

Justin Thomas will be disappointed with his finish at last week’s PLAYERS Championship, as the past champion missed the cut despite being in some decent form heading into the event. Despite the missed cut, JT hit the ball really well. In his two rounds, the two-time major champion led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach per round.

Thomas has been up and down this season. He’s missed the cut in two “signature events” but also has finishes of T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T6 at the Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am and T3 at the American Express. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in the field.

Thomas loves Copperhead. In his last three tries at the course, he’s finished T13, T3 and T10. Thomas would have loved to get a win at a big event early in the season, but avoidable mistakes and a balky putter have cost him dearly. I believe a trip to a course he loves in a field he should be able to capitalize on is the right recipe for JT to right the ship.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (FanDuel)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is playing spectacular golf in the 2024 season. He finished 2nd at the American Express, T20 at Pebble Beach and T24 at the Genesis Invitational before finishing T13 at last week’s PLAYERS Championship.

In his past 24 rounds, the South African ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 26th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. Bezuidenhout managed to work his way around TPC Sawgrass last week with minimal damage. He only made five bogeys in the entire week, which is a great sign heading into a difficult Copperhead this week.

Bezuidenhout is winless in his PGA Tour career, but certainly has the talent to win on Tour. His recent iron play tells me that this week could be a breakthrough for the 35-year-old who has eyes on the President’s Cup.

Doug Ghim +8000 (FanDuel)

Doug Ghim has finished in the top-16 of his past five starts. Most recently, Ghim finished T16 at The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field.

In his past 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 5th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. In terms of his fit for Copperhead, the 27-year-old ranks 12th in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions, making him a great fit for the course.

Ghim has yet to win on Tour, but at one point he was the top ranked Amateur golfer in the world and played in the 2017 Arnold Palmer Cup and 2017 Walker Cup. He then won the Ben Hogan award for the best male college golfer in 2018. He certainly has the talent, and there are signals aplenty that his talent in ready to take him to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour.

Sepp Straka +8000 (BetRivers)

Sepp Straka is a player who’s shown he has the type of game that can translate to a difficult Florida golf course. The former Presidents Cup participant won the 2022 Honda Classic in tough conditions and should thrive with a similar test at Copperhead.

It’s been a slow 2024 for Straka, but his performance last week at the PLAYERS Championship surely provides some optimism. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach as well as 1.88 strokes off the tee. The tee-to-green game Straka showed on a course with plenty of danger demonstrates that he can stay in control of his golf ball this week.

It’s possible that the strong performance last week was an outlier, but I’m willing to bet on a proven winner in a weaker field at a great number.

Victor Perez +12000 (FanDuel)

Victor Perez is no stranger to success in professional golf. The Frenchman has three DP World Tour wins including a Rolex Series event. He won the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, as well as the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which are some big events.

Perez earned his PGA Tour card this season and enters the week playing some fantastic golf. He finished in a tie for 16th in Florida at the Cognizant Classic and then tied for third in his most recent start at the Puerto Rico Open.

In his past 24 rounds in the field, Perez ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 1oth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Good Drive % and 15th in Bogey Avoidance.

Perez comes in as a perfect fit for Copperhead and offers serious value at triple-digit odds.

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