Opinion & Analysis

Should Augusta National lengthen the 13th hole, or leave it alone?

Published

6 years ago

Apr 4, 2018

It’s perhaps the most iconic par 5 in all of championship golf. It’s short and deceptively simple by professional standards, yet it remains the epitome of “risk/reward” golf due to the sharp dogleg to the left around Rae’s Creek (Jeff Maggert once made a 2, Tommy Nakajima once made a 13). Even casual Masters viewers know we’re talking about Azalea, the 13th hole at Augusta National. It is the first of two “must-birdie” holes on the back nine at the Masters. It is perhaps the most beautiful hole in golf, and one that has caused as much heartache as joy over the years as any.

But as mentioned, at only 510 yards, it is short… very short by modern professional standards; even shorter than some championship par 4s. Bubba hit a wedge in there a few years ago, and every player in the field can reach it easy in two with their average drive. Or, if you’re Phil, you can hit a 6 iron from the pine straw and knock it stiff en route to victory. But if you miss, the infamous “tributary” of Rae’s Creek awaits your slightest error.

The problem now is it seems that after even marginal drives and from not-the-best-lies can reach the green in two. So the Augusta National is thinking about making the hole longer. At Augusta, that is like saying they are GOING TO make the hole longer. Recently purchased property adjacent to that part of the course allows them to do it, too.

So our question for GolfWRX viewers is this: Good idea or bad idea?

On the good side: “it needs to be longer to keep up with the modern equipment and golf ball.”
On the bad side: “why mess with perfection and history? It is fine (exciting) the way it is.”

Before you weigh in, a point to consider: forget any bifurcation arguments, the Augusta National is just not going to butt heads with the USGA in creating a “Masters” ball. So let’s assume the equipment stays as is. In my opinion, here are a few possibilities:

Make the penalty for going over the trees (the Bubba Route, but who knows how many more might soon consider it) more severe; perhaps OB?
Add a little length to force them to use driver. Many of them now use three woods to turn it easier like they do on No. 10.
Leave it alone. It’s the best short par-5 in major championship golf!

Do you think Augusta should lengthen the par-5 13th, or leave it alone? And why?

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Dennis Clark

Dennis Clark is a PGA Master Professional. Clark has taught the game of golf for more than 30 years to golfers all across the country, and is recognized as one of the leading teachers in the country by all the major golf publications. He is also is a seven-time PGA award winner who has earned the following distinctions: -- Teacher of the Year, Philadelphia Section PGA -- Teacher of the Year, Golfers Journal -- Top Teacher in Pennsylvania, Golf Magazine -- Top Teacher in Mid Atlantic Region, Golf Digest -- Earned PGA Advanced Specialty certification in Teaching/Coaching Golf -- Achieved Master Professional Status (held by less than 2 percent of PGA members) -- PGA Merchandiser of the Year, Tri State Section PGA -- Golf Professional of the Year, Tri State Section PGA -- Presidents Plaque Award for Promotion and Growth of the Game of Golf -- Junior Golf Leader, Tri State section PGA -- Served on Tri State PGA Board of Directors. Clark is also former Director of Golf and Instruction at Nemacolin Woodlands Resort. Dennis now teaches at Bobby Clampett's Impact Zone Golf Indoor Performance Center in Naples, FL. .

43 Comments

Mat

Apr 6, 2018 at 8:04 am

It’s just “par”. Last I checked, these guys aren’t counting Stableford off of 14 caps. If you must, just call it a Par 4 and move on.

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kourt

Apr 5, 2018 at 6:35 pm

I say leave it alone. Its not like one hole is ruining the tournament. Who cares if people are making birdies there. The rest of the course is punishing enough. The trees you got to carry will continue to grow which will make cutting the corner even more difficult. After battling amen corner Its nice to have a few holes where the guys can play aggressive and make a big push for birdie and eagle. I mean 15 is fairly easy, sergio eagled it last year in the final round, and this year made 13!

Reply Report comment
Don O

Apr 5, 2018 at 12:41 am

The “point” of lengthening the hole is to make it harder for the bombers. Well, it will just separate the shorter players even more. If DJ is using a GW and KJ is using a 8I, but then DJ is using a 9I and now KJ is now using a 6I. How hard is it to control a 6I onto a tight spot? It’s not how far but how accurate should make a difference. Set up the courses tighter, put more penalty on drivers over 3 hundred. Move bunkers to match the length. Bunkers at 285 are a joke. DJ will fly, the average pro will be hurt more. This time, Jack is wrong. Look at Erin Hills at 7800. It just took the shorter guys out of the equation. Put deep bunkers where they cut the corner. or add a stand of trees on 13. How well did Tiger-proofing the course work out? He did and can still win because he is still longer than Charlie Hoffman and Pat Perez.

Reply Report comment
BD57

Apr 4, 2018 at 9:36 pm

Rather than simply “Lengthen it,” why not move the tee 10 -15 yards further to the let of where it is now (and, perhaps, add 10-15 yards)?

I looked on Google Earth – it looks like they have the land available to make it work, separate from the land purchased from Augusta Country Club (with the ACC land, they should have land to go left & add length).

Going left would put more stress on the tee shot, especially if they add 10-15 yards to the carry distance required to go over the top, without completely changing the nature of the hole.

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John Kerry

Apr 4, 2018 at 6:39 pm

Do what some including Augusta is thinking/suggesting and that is change rhe ball. Get over your male ego and 400 yrd drives. You will make several golf courses because they can’t afford length. This prime example of the 13th hole of Augusta, was meant to have a drive and a 2nd shot the player had to decide…go or lay up…..NOT a wedge onto the green. You can’t keep lengthening courses…it has to stop and now is as good a time as any.

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David Owen

Apr 4, 2018 at 6:30 pm

Leave it alone….lengthening it only makes it harder for the shorter hitters…the bombers won’t care

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Tom54

Apr 4, 2018 at 5:42 pm

I believe if they have purchased land for a new tee then it is a done deal. If they do make a new tee hopefully it can be adjusted to see how it plays. If 15-20 yds longer makes it still reachable then fine. As long as they have it where a well placed drive affords the chance to go for it in too then please always let it play that way. The back nine roars for eagles at 13&15 are what makes the Masters exciting. As long as they still keep them that way then the Masters will have not messed with perfection

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Dennis Clark

Apr 4, 2018 at 4:32 pm

When we talk about longer, we are actually doing it because of the athlete, not the equipment, right? The ball and club have not changed in a while now as Greg said. What has improved is the athlete and optimized launch conditions. In that case if they add 30/40 yards, should we change the hoop in b-ball to 11 feet?

Reply Report comment
- Greg V
  
  Apr 5, 2018 at 9:12 am
  
  The problem with the distance and its effect on this hole goes back to the change in equipment from 1993 to 2003. It has taken from 2003 to now to recognize that there is a problem.
  
  I am happy that Fred Ridley has addressed the issue.
  
  They do one of two things – address the equipment or length of the holes to address the problem, or agree to play on what have become “executive length” courses.
  
  Reply Report comment
Man

Apr 4, 2018 at 4:18 pm

Just narrow the angle on the right by raising the rough and make it almost a hack-out,
and then shave the left side completely and slick it up by cutting away the rough completely so that any any errant balls to the left will spill the ball into the creek.
Everybody knows there’s hardly any rough on the whole course.

Reply Report comment
Sean

Apr 4, 2018 at 3:56 pm

Make it OB and longer – but get Ben Crenshaw to shape it in such a way that it retains its flavor.

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Greg V

Apr 4, 2018 at 3:55 pm

Fred Ridley quoted Bobby Jones today. Jones said that the decision to go for the green in two on 13 should be a “momentous decision.” Ridley added that the decision these days is hardly momentous.

You can expect a lengthening of 13 to start in about 2 weeks.

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Gumbo

Apr 4, 2018 at 3:27 pm

Don’t touch it

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mark

Apr 4, 2018 at 2:42 pm

Shorten it a little, and turn it into a Par 4, it’s the approach shot, and location of the pin, that will create the birdies. With today’s technology, and the strength (swing speed) of most players, it really is not a Par 5 hole. If you shorten the tee box, everyone can still get to the corner, and hit the green it 2. On most courses, to make a Par 5 difficult for everyone, you need to place hazards at the 310-340 yd landing area, then it becomes position, shot making, risk-reward, for all players, long and short.

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- Jeff
  
  Apr 4, 2018 at 3:05 pm
  
  Does Par matter? It’s a number, whoever shots the lowest number wins
  
  Reply Report comment
  - golfbum
    
    Apr 4, 2018 at 3:37 pm
    
    I agree with this! Worse thing in golf is to compare your game to a arbitrary number on a scorecard. I play a course in the SF Bay Area that is a Robert Trent Jones design and is par 63. From the tips you use every club in your bag.
    
    At 13 it is not whether you make EAGLE or BIRDIE that wins the Masters, but whether you can make 3 or 4….but EAGLE or BIRDIE sounds better or perhaps in this case sounds worse.
    
    Now, if you wan to make longer? Then stretch it out so that no player can hit the green in two shots. Therefore, making the strategy for a third shot a more important decision. With that the 4th shot is where the crowd will really roar!
    
    Low score wins the Masters. Leave the course alone. Everything about the Masters is elegant: no player has ever said that Augusta National is too easy.
    
    Reply Report comment
Greg

Apr 4, 2018 at 2:15 pm

On the good side: “it needs to be longer to keep up with the modern equipment and golf ball.”

You guys have been telling me for weeks there is no issues with the modern ball and equipment, but you just put it in print! That’s funny

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dr. freud

Apr 4, 2018 at 2:01 pm

Azalea, she has a short hole… (ø)

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Hawkeye77

Apr 4, 2018 at 1:33 pm

Of course, lengthen it and I’m sure they can figure out how to do that and preserve the integrity of the hole and still have reasonable risk/reward.

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Art Williams

Apr 4, 2018 at 1:15 pm

They bought the land so go ahead and lengthen it. This should bring it back to shot values of years ago for most of the field.

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Soonerslim

Apr 4, 2018 at 1:11 pm

Leave it alone. It’s time that these club designers stop lengthening golf holes because of the inflated ball and technology. The 13th is an iconic risk/reward hole. Lengthening it will cause a lot more golfers to lay up and not take that risk for a potential eagle. This hole has always been very pivot-able in the Master’s winner outcome. This hole has wound up penalizing a lot more golfers than it has ever rewarded. Leave it alone!
J

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Dennis clark

Apr 4, 2018 at 1:08 pm

Just don’t make it a par 3…I Don’t want to see so much length added that it takes the exciting risk out of it.

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Bob Sarvis

Apr 4, 2018 at 1:05 pm

Add 15-20 yards and lower the tee box which will make the trees on the left “play” taller. Adding length to the tee box will allow the hole to be lengthened or shortened daily depending on the conditions.

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Ronald Montesano

Apr 4, 2018 at 1:02 pm

Lengthen it. The sharp dogleg was part of the original design, and it should come into play. The landing area for the distance freaks is conducive to taking the risk. Get the drives back into the layUP/go? area for more drama.

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Artie

Apr 4, 2018 at 12:52 pm

Add 20-30 yards so a longer, more adventuresome 2nd shot by adding 2 clubs off the uneven lie. But still make it play that most to go for it vs just a boring layup.

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Deacon Blues

Apr 4, 2018 at 12:50 pm

Now that they’ve bought the adjoining land from the Augusta Country Club, I think it’s obvious that they will move the tee back and make the 13th hole longer. They can also make the green smaller (while maintaining the difficulty of its contours), making it a more challenging target.

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AB

Apr 4, 2018 at 12:44 pm

lower the tee box

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tom Horonzy

Apr 4, 2018 at 12:37 pm

Is everyone missing the most obvious change should be to make it a Par 4?
Or a novel idea would be to play the tees as they are as a Par 5 Thursday and Friday but once the cut is determined slash it to a Par 4. Now that would show who has the donuts to play it for the championship under pressure.

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- Mike
  
  Apr 4, 2018 at 12:55 pm
  
  You don’t play a hole differently due to the par posted on the card….
  
  Reply Report comment
- Buzz
  
  Apr 4, 2018 at 2:04 pm
  
  EXACTLY!! Wouldnt be the only 500 yard par 4 on tour. Leave the damn ball and hole alone. Nicklaus was hitting his driver 300+ and could hit it high/low/left or right. So lets also assume he could FLY his 4-5 iron 200 and get it to stop. OR drastic idea… Make every hole a par 3 on the card and who ever shoots the lowest score after 4 rounds wins. Relation to par has always and will always be irrelevant in tournaments.
  
  Reply Report comment
Duke Keiser

Apr 4, 2018 at 12:35 pm

As even the shorter hitters still have only a 5 iron or less to reach the green, Azalea is no longer the challenging hole it has been in the past. The purchase of the property from ACC should be seen as a clear indication that the decision has been made to lengthen the hole. I must say that I would not have been surprised to see #13 played as a 4 par this year, but perhaps tradition made that consideration a non-starter.

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Rob

Apr 4, 2018 at 12:26 pm

Penalties for going over the trees?!? This is Golf right? Not some drone? They bought the land so, it will be lengthened. When people are hitting 9, pw into that green it’s time to move the tee box back.

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Wayne

Apr 4, 2018 at 12:23 pm

With the amount of power the Masters have this is my suggestion? They should make a deflighted ball to be used only at Augusta? This means everyone will use the same ball with the masters logo on it and this will let this coarse survive for years to come? With technology today the great golf coarses of the past are becoming obsolete due to this issue? The cost of golf keeps excalating due to the cost of property to build and the amount of money it cost to maintain our great golf courses? It’s time to make the game enjoyable and realistic to all who want to play the game.? This isn’t the first time this has been brought up but here’s another thought. With all factions of golf getting more expensive and jobs being lost, the only people who will be able to play this game will be the rich. So it’s time the golf industry make this drastic decision to keep this game alive and well into the future!!!

Reply Report comment
- Mike
  
  Apr 4, 2018 at 12:54 pm
  
  Dude, what’s with all the question marks??? lol…. very well spoken but it’s “course” btw…
  
  Reply Report comment
Robert Mummery

Apr 4, 2018 at 12:21 pm

When I took up golf, bunkers were raked with a hay rake which left surfaces corrugated, why are bunker rakes now designed to leave a flat surface?
Secondly, why rather than increase length of holes, create deeper rough, so driving accuracy becomes a consideration?

Reply Report comment
Tiemco

Apr 4, 2018 at 12:17 pm

I would like to see the tee moved back and pushed to the left so that righties will have to hit a draw with the driver and lefty’s will not be able to fade it over the corner. The definition of a par five in my opinion is a hole that requires a long iron or higher into the green. With the length the pros have today this hole plays more like a par four.

Reply Report comment
- Michael
  
  Apr 4, 2018 at 12:33 pm
  
  So my answer to this question in general would be, where are they going to move the tee box? If you have ever been there, you can see that there is nowhere else to go back. I’d say currently players to have to hit a draw especially if they want that good rollout, but there is not much of a penalty for missing one right. Pitch out and then have an easy wedge into the green.
  
  Reply Report comment
Greg V

Apr 4, 2018 at 12:13 pm

Why did ANGC buy the 10th hole at Augusta Country Club?

Obviously, because they want to lengthen 13. It’s a done deal, all $20M of it.

Should they? OF course they should. At about 540 or 550 it will restore the risk/reward of this iconic par 4.5.

Reply Report comment
David Bloom

Apr 4, 2018 at 12:11 pm

Add the length as they have have some of the other holes in the past.

Reply Report comment
sj

Apr 4, 2018 at 12:10 pm

Make the banks slick again. Anything that spins or rolls off the green is always in the water. I’ve seen plenty of balls held up lately.

Reply Report comment
kevin

Apr 4, 2018 at 11:37 am

Maybe leave the length alone and instead add some subtle “whoop-de whoops” or mounds where they are landing their drivers. That way if they choose to go over trees to a short iron 2nd shot they run high risk of a very awkward stance into green. I cant imagine an awkward stance would be very reassuring into that green. Or have rae’s creek feed a pond where they are landing driver in middle of fairway making it one of those split fairways that wont allow going over trees

Reply Report comment
ogo

Apr 4, 2018 at 11:11 am

Azalea she is quite the short hole… 😮

Reply Report comment
- Scott Freeman
  
  Apr 4, 2018 at 1:24 pm
  
  Option 4: Go back to counting strokes rather than scoring in relation to par.
  
  Reply Report comment

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Opinion & Analysis

The Wedge Guy: What really makes a wedge work? Part 1

Published

5 hours ago

Apr 18, 2024

Terry Koehler

Of all the clubs in our bags, wedges are almost always the simplest in construction and, therefore, the easiest to analyze what might make one work differently from another if you know what to look for.

Wedges are a lot less mysterious than drivers, of course, as the major brands are working with a lot of “pixie dust” inside these modern marvels. That’s carrying over more to irons now, with so many new models featuring internal multi-material technologies, and almost all of them having a “badge” or insert in the back to allow more complex graphics while hiding the actual distribution of mass.

But when it comes to wedges, most on the market today are still single pieces of molded steel, either cast or forged into that shape. So, if you look closely at where the mass is distributed, it’s pretty clear how that wedge is going to perform.

To start, because of their wider soles, the majority of the mass of almost any wedge is along the bottom third of the clubhead. So, the best wedge shots are always those hit between the 2nd and 5th grooves so that more mass is directly behind that impact. Elite tour professionals practice incessantly to learn to do that consistently, wearing out a spot about the size of a penny right there. If impact moves higher than that, the face is dramatically thinner, so smash factor is compromised significantly, which reduces the overall distance the ball will fly.

Every one of us, tour players included, knows that maddening shot that we feel a bit high on the face and it doesn’t go anywhere, it’s not your fault.

If your wedges show a wear pattern the size of a silver dollar, and centered above the 3rd or 4th groove, you are not getting anywhere near the same performance from shot to shot. Robot testing proves impact even two to three grooves higher in the face can cause distance loss of up to 35 to 55 feet with modern ‘tour design’ wedges.

In addition, as impact moves above the center of mass, the golf club principle of gear effect causes the ball to fly higher with less spin. Think of modern drivers for a minute. The “holy grail” of driving is high launch and low spin, and the driver engineers are pulling out all stops to get the mass as low in the clubhead as possible to optimize this combination.

Where is all the mass in your wedges? Low. So, disregarding the higher lofts, wedges “want” to launch the ball high with low spin – exactly the opposite of what good wedge play requires penetrating ball flight with high spin.

While almost all major brand wedges have begun putting a tiny bit more thickness in the top portion of the clubhead, conventional and modern ‘tour design’ wedges perform pretty much like they always have. Elite players learn to hit those crisp, spinny penetrating wedge shots by spending lots of practice time learning to consistently make contact low in the face.

So, what about grooves and face texture?

Grooves on any club can only do so much, and no one has any material advantage here. The USGA tightly defines what we manufacturers can do with grooves and face texture, and modern manufacturing techniques allow all of us to push those limits ever closer. And we all do. End of story.

Then there’s the topic of bounce and grinds, the most complex and confusing part of the wedge formula. Many top brands offer a complex array of sole configurations, all of them admittedly specialized to a particular kind of lie or turf conditions, and/or a particular divot pattern.

But if you don’t play the same turf all the time, and make the same size divot on every swing, how would you ever figure this out?

The only way is to take any wedge you are considering and play it a few rounds, hitting all the shots you face and observing the results. There’s simply no other way.

So, hopefully this will inspire a lively conversation in our comments section, and I’ll chime in to answer any questions you might have.

And next week, I’ll dive into the rest of the wedge formula. Yes, shafts, grips and specifications are essential, too.

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Golf's Perfect Imperfections

Golf’s Perfect Imperfections: Amazing Session with Performance Coach Savannah Meyer-Clement

Published

5 hours ago

Apr 18, 2024

GolfWRX Staff

In this week’s episode, we spent some time with performance coach Savannah Meyer-Clement who provides many useful insights that you’ll be able to implement on the golf course.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 RBC Heritage betting preview: Patrick Cantlay ready to get back inside winner’s circle

Published

3 days ago

Apr 15, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

Just a two-hour drive from Augusta National, the PGA TOUR heads to Harbour Town Golf Links in Hilton Head Island, S.C. Hilton Head Island is a golfer’s paradise and Harbour Town is one of the most beautiful and scenic courses on the PGA TOUR.

Harbour Town Golf Links is a par-71 that measures 7,121 yards and features Bermuda grass greens. A Pete Dye design, the course is heavily tree lined and features small greens and many dog legs, protecting it from “bomb-and-gauge” type golfers.

The field is loaded this week with 69 golfers with no cut. Last year was quite possibly the best field in RBC Heritage history and the event this week is yet another designated event, meaning there is a $20 million prize pool.

Most of the big names on the PGA Tour will be in attendance this week with the exceptions of Hideki Matsuyama and Viktor Hovland. Additionally, Webb Simpson, Shane Lowry, Gary Woodland and Kevin Kisner have been granted sponsors exemptions.

Past Winners at Harbour Town

2023: Matt Fitzpatrick (-17)
2022: Jordan Spieth (-13)
2021: Stewart Cink (-19)
2020: Webb Simpson (-22)
2019: CT Pan (-12)
2018: Sotoshi Kodaira (-12)
2017: Wesley Bryan (-13)
2016: Branden Grace (-9)
2015: Jim Furyk (-18)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value).

Key Stats For Harbour Town

Let’s take a look at key metrics for Harbour Town Golf Links to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their past 24 rounds.

Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach is exceedingly important this week. The greens at Harbour Town are about half the size of PGA TOUR average and feature the second-smallest greens on the tour. Typical of a Pete Dye design, golfers will pay the price for missed greens.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

Scottie Scheffler (+1.27)
Tom Hoge (+1.27)
Corey Conners (+1.16)
Austin Eckroat (+0.95)
Cameron Young (+0.93)

Good Drive %

The fairways at Harbour Town are tree lined and feature many dog legs. Bombers tend to struggle at the course because it forces layups and doesn’t allow long drivers to overpower it. Accuracy is far more important than power.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

Brice Garnett (88.8%)
Shane Lowry (+87.2%)
Akshay Bhatia (+86.0%)
Si Woo Kim (+85.8%)
Sepp Straka (+85.1%)

Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye Designs

Pete Dye specialists tend to play very well at Harbour Town. Si Woo Kim, Matt Kuchar, Jim Furyk and Webb Simpson are all Pete Dye specialists who have had great success here. It is likely we see some more specialists near the top of the leaderboard this week.

SG: TOT Pete Dye per round over past 36 rounds:

Xander Schauffele (+2.27)
Scottie Scheffler (+2.24)
Ludvig Aberg (+2.11)
Brian Harman (+1.89)
Sungjae Im (+1.58)

4. Strokes Gained: Short Game (Bermuda)

Strokes Gained: Short Game factors in both around the green and putting. With many green-side bunkers and tricky green complexes, both statistics will be important. Past winners — such as Jim Furyk, Wes Bryan and Webb Simpson — highlight how crucial the short game skill set is around Harbour Town.

SG: SG Over Past 24 Rounds

Jordan Spieth (+1.11)
Taylor Moore (+1.02)
Wyndham Clark (+0.98)
Mackenzie Hughes (+0.86)
Andrew Putnam (+0.83)

5. Greens in Regulation %

The recipe for success at Harbour Town Golf Links is hitting fairways and greens. Missing either will prove to be consequential — golfers must be in total control of the ball to win.

Greens in Regulation % over past 24 rounds:

Brice Garnett (+75.0%)
Scottie Scheffler (+69.9%)
Corey Conners (+69.0%)
Shane Lowry (+68.3%)
Patrick Rodgers (+67.6%)

6. Course History

Harbour Town is a course where players who have strong past results at the course always tend to pop up.

Course History over past 24 rounds:

Patrick Cantlay (+2.34)
Cam Davis (+2.05)
J.T. Poston (+1.69)
Justin Rose (+1.68)
Tommy Fleetwood (+1.59)

The RBC Heritage Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (24%), Good Drives (20%), SG: SG (14%), SG: Pete Dye (14%), GIR (14%), and Course History (14%)

Shane Lowry
Russell Henley
Scottie Scheffler
Xander Schauffele
Corey Conners
Wyndham Clark
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
Matt Fitzpatrick
Cameron Young
Ludvig Aberg

2024 RBC Heritage Picks

Patrick Cantlay +2000 (FanDuel)

With the exception of Scottie Scheffler, the PGA Tour has yet to have any of their star players show peak form during the 2024 season. Last week, Patrick Cantlay, who I believe is a top-5 players on the PGA Tour, took one step closer to regaining the form that’s helped him win eight events on Tour since 2017.

Cantlay limped into the Masters in poor form, but figured it out at Augusta National, finishing in a tie for 20th and ranking 17th for the week in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. The former FedEx Cup champion will now head to one of his favorite golf courses in Harbour Town, where he’s had immaculate results over the years. In his six trips to the course, he’s only finished worse than 7th one time. The other finishes include three third places (2017, 2019, 2023) and one runner-up finish (2022). In his past 36 rounds at Harbour Town, Cantlay ranks 1st in Strokes Gained: Total per round at the course by a wide margin (+2.36).

Cantlay is winless since the 2022 BMW Championship, which is far too long for a player of his caliber. With signs pointing to the 32-year-old returning to form, a “signature event” at Harbour Town is just what he needs to get back on the winning track.

Tommy Fleetwood +3000 (FanDuel)

I truly believe Tommy Fleetwood will figure out a way to win on American soil in 2024. It’s certainly been a bugaboo for him throughout his career, but he is simply too talented to go another season without winning a PGA Tour event.

At last week’s Masters Tournament, Fleetwood made a Sunday charge and ended up finishing T3 in the event, which was his best ever finish at The Masters. For the week, the Englishman ranked 8th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, 10th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking and 16th in Strokes Gained: Putting.

Harbour Town is a perfect layout for Fleetwood, and he’s had relative success at this Pete Dye design in the past. In his four trips to the course, he’s finished inside of the top 25 three times, with his best finish, T10, coming in 2022. The course is pretty short and can’t be overpowered, which gives an advantage to more accurate players such as Fleetwood. Tommy ranks 8th in the field in Good Drive % and should be able to plot his way along this golf course.

The win is coming for Tommy lad. I believe there’s a chance this treasure of a golf course may be the perfect one for him to finally break through on Tour.

Cameron Young +3300 (FanDuel)

Cameron Young had a solid Masters Tournament last week, which is exactly what I’m looking for in players who I anticipate playing well this week at the RBC Heritage. He finished in a tie for 9th, but never felt the pressure of contending in the event. For the week, Young ranked 6th in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking.

Despite being one of the longest players off the tee on the PGA Tour, Young has actually played some really good golf on shorter tracks. He finished T3 at Harbour Town in 2023 and ranks 20th in the field in Good Drive% and 16th in Greens in Regulation in his past 24 rounds. He also has strong finishes at other shorter courses that can take driver out of a players hand such as Copperhead and PGA National.

Young is simply one of the best players on the PGA Tour in 2024, and I strongly believe has what it takes to win a PGA Tour event in the very near future.

Corey Conners +5500 (FanDuel)

Corey Conners has had a disappointing year thus far on the PGA Tour, but absolutely loves Harbour Town.

At last week’s Masters Tournament, the Canadian finished T30 but ranked 20th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach. In his past 24 rounds, Conners ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, 3rd in Greens in Regulation % and 24th in Good Drive %.

In Conners’ last four trips to Harbour Town, his worst finish was T31, last season. He finished T4 in 2021, T12 in 2022 and ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Total at the course over his past 36 rounds.

Conners hasn’t been contending, but his recent finishes have been encouraging as he has finished in the top-25 in each of his past three starts prior to The Masters, including an impressive T13 at The PLAYERS. His recent improvement in ball striking as well as his suitability for Harbour Town makes Conners a high upside bet this week.

Shane Lowry (+7500) (FanDuel)

When these odds were posted after Lowry was announced in the field, I have to admit I was pretty stunned. Despite not offering much win equity on the PGA Tour over the last handful of years, Shane Lowry is still a top caliber player who has the ability to rise to the top of a signature event.

Lowry struggled to score at The Masters last week, but he actually hit the ball really well. The Irishman ranked 1st for Strokes Gained: Approach on the week and 7th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. As usual, it was the putter that let him down, as he ranked 60th in the field in Strokes Gained: Putting.

Harbour Town is most definitely one of Lowry’s favorite courses on the PGA Tour. In his six starts there, he’s finished in the top 10 three times, including third twice. Lowry is sensational at Pete Dye designs and ranks 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in his past 36 rounds on Dye tracks.

Lowry is perfect for Harbour Town. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 5th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 2nd in Good Drive% and 5th in Green in Regulation %. If he figures it out on the greens, Shane could have his first win in America since 2015.

Lucas Glover +12000 (FanDuel)

This is one of my weekly “bet the number” plays as I strongly believe the odds are just too long for a player of Glover’s caliber. The odds have been too long on Glover for a few weeks now, but this is the first event that I can get behind the veteran being able to actually contend at.

Glover is quietly playing good golf and returning to the form he had after the understandable regression after his two massive victories at the end of 2023. He finished T20 at The Masters, which was his best ever finish at Augusta National. For the week, Lucas ranked 18th for Strokes Gained: Approach and 20th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking.

Over his past 24 rounds, Glover ranks 9th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 13th in Good Drive %. Harbour Town is a short course that the 44-year-old will be able to keep up with the top players on Tour off the tee. He’s played the course more than 20 times, with mixed results. His best finishes at Harbour Town include a T7 in 2008, but recently has a finish of T21 in 2020.

Glover has proven he can contend with the stars of the Tour on any given week, and this number is flat out disrespectful.

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