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Talking golf betting in general, Masters betting in particular, with a pro gambler

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It’s no secret that the Masters is the biggest golf betting week of the year. Not only are golf fans who generally don’t punt keen to put a little cash on the line, but general sports fans tune in and pony up in a major way.

Puns aside, we wanted to pose a few questions to to a seasoned golf bettor to see what wisdom he can impart to the more recreational golf gamblers among us.

Dave is the owner of Top Market Sports, the only sports advisory site in the world that’s owned and operated by real Wall Street traders and analysts.

Q. If someone is considering getting into golf betting, what advice would you give him/her?

A. Don’t be scared to bet on underdogs. When betting futures (who will win a given tournament), the value is always in the bottom half of the board. Guys who bet golf for serious money are never going to be kicking themselves for missing out on a 6/1 or 7/1 winner. Look at the surprise winners we’ve seen so far this season. Ted Potter Jr. won at Pebble as a 200/1 shot. Patton Kizzire got the job done as a 75/1 shot in Hawaii. Those are serious payouts.

Q. There’s a lot more to betting on golf than picking who will win the tournament. Can you talk about betting during the tournament?

A. That’s what we specialize in. We’re not really big on betting futures. We’re more focused on round-by-round matchups. Example: Keegan Bradley vs Jamie Lovemark in Round 1. Who will have the lower score? These types of propositions are available at most major sports books. Again, recreational bettors look to bet on favorites. It’s human nature. But sharper players are selectively picking dogs.

Q. Is it generally a good idea to chase value in betting players ahead major tournament weeks?

A. It can work for you, but also against you. It also opens the door for hedging opportunities if you’ve established a position months in advance and the market has moved in your favor. Everyone wishes they had booked a fat ticket on Tiger to win the Masters when he was like 300/1 in October (laughs). Now he’s trading at about 10/1. A lot of guys would be looking to sell some or all of that ticket in order to lock in a profit. Buy low, sell high, right? At the same time, you could’ve gotten Hideki Matsuyama a couple months ago at 15/1. As of this morning he’s 35/1 because his form has faded a bit. So it works both ways.

Q. What resources do you rely on?

A. Statistics are readily available to the public just like they are in any other sport. Strokes gained numbers, greens-in-regulation, scrambling, etc. But if you really want to start profitably betting golf, there’s no substitute for just sitting down and grinding coverage. We like to DVR most of it so we can be efficient with our time. We also talk a lot about “boots on the ground” in our office. There’s nothing wrong or shady about actually being at the practice facility during these events. It’s public information, available to anyone at the event with open eyes and open ears. We’ve had guys at 7 tournaments so far this season. I don’t want to oversimplify it…but if a guy has the yips on the practice putting green, there might be some extra value in betting against him.

Q. Any past golf punts you’re particularly proud of?

A. One recent bet that we told our clients to load up on was Bubba Watson +145 vs Justin Thomas in the semis of the Dell Match Play. A guy who’s got two green jackets should not be that much of an underdog over the course of a single round, especially when he’s coming in hot after winning his group and then a tough quarterfinal match. Also, Bubba’s not the biggest fan favorite in the world, right? This is something we specifically talked about while handicapping the match. People like to root against Bubba, and that created even more value in the market. It was a max play for us. We really stepped out and hit that one hard.

Q. The Masters is the biggest golf betting week of the year. Do you approach it differently?

A. Golf betting markets are less liquid than most other sports. Meaning there’s a hell of a lot more money being bet on football and basketball than on golf or something like tennis. During the majors, there’s more public money AKA square money AKA dumb money in play, which can be mopped up nicely if you know what you’re doing. We’ll be making some of our biggest bets of the PGA Tour season during the Masters.

You can check out Top Market Sports for free betting picks, free articles, and a free real-time odds portal. They can also be found on Instagram @topmarketsports. Top Market Sports went 68-27-3 across all sports in the month of March.

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  1. Speedy

    Apr 3, 2018 at 4:38 pm

    I don’t think a fluke win is happening this week.

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19th Hole

The Houston Open could be permanently closed

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The Houston Open looks to be in trouble. While, the PGA Tour won’t release the 2018-2019 schedule until some time around The Players Championship, word regarding schedule changes is already filtering out…and of course speculation abounds.

Unfortunately for the Houston Open, the long-standing Tour stop’s future looks to be in jeopardy on the heels of some recent news. First reported by Houston’s ABC 13 and later by Joel Beall of Golf Digest: The Golf Club of Houston, which has hosted the tournament since 2003, no longer wants to host the competition.

“We received notice this week from the Golf Club of Houston regarding the club’s decision to no longer host a PGA Tour event,” a Houston Golf Association statement said. “The Golf Club of Houston has been a great venue for the Houston Open dating back to 2003 and we look forward to maintaining a great relationship with the club.”

The tournament’s future has looked bleak since 25-year sponsor, Shell, ended its duties in 2017. Additionally, the Golf Club of Houston has been substantially renovated in recent years to provide players conditions similar to what they’ll face the following week at Augusta National.

However, knowing the tournament will move out of the pre-Masters calendar position, clearly didn’t sit well with GCH, and the club is finished playing host.

Thus, any future Houston Open needs a new course and new sponsor, which is, at the very least, a tremendous ask roughly a year out from the potential competition.

RELATED: Detroit could be getting a PGA Tour event

 

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19th Hole

Good? Bad? Hilarious? GolfWRX members discuss hypothetical two-man teams

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In its second year, the Zurich Classic’s team format is a new and curious beast amidst the medal play that dominates the PGA Tour. The two-man team format got GolfWRX member AceCatKY thinking.

He writes

“What would be some of the best/worst/funniest pairings of two PGA golfers for a two-man event? Current and past golfers can be paired together so you could have Old Tom Morris and Patrick Reed if you wanted…I think DJ/DeChambeau would be hilarious for the dichotomy it would present…What do you guys/gals think?”

Oh boy, what a superb hypothetical; imagine the possibilities: good, bad, and ugly! Naturally, GolfWRXers were quick to weigh in.

Bye writes

Sergio and Tiger would be interesting.

Seve and Phil could have been the most entertaining pairing in history.

jonsnow says

Bubba Watson & Steve Elkington

Patrick Reed & Rory McIlroy

Danny Willett & Smylie Kaufman

Cardoustie says

Lumpy and Jesper

Tom Watson and Gary Player

Seve and Azinger

Robert Rock and Ollie Schneiderjans

Frankensteins Monster says

Ian Poulter/Patrick Reed

Todd Hamilton/Danny Willett

Tony Finau/Colt Knost

Robert Rock/Ben Crane

Michelle Wie/Tad Fujikawa

Check out the rest of the replies in the thread, or let us know your hypothetical two-person squads below. 

 

 

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19th Hole

From Master P to Metallica: Check out team walk-up songs for the Zurich Classic

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It’s the list you’ve been dying for since you heard the Zurich Classic of New Orleans would feature golfer walk-up music.

OK, you’re at least mildly interested in what, say, Jon Curran and Keegan Bradley will be walking out to (the answer: “Shipping Up To Boston,” by the Dropkick Murphys, appropriate for a pair of sons of New England).

Here’s the official list, per the PGA Tour (not every team is included). As you can see, it’s a mix of classics, local references, hip-hop, and a surprising dose of metal.

Team                                         Song                                      Artist                                       
William McGirt/Sam Burns Callin’ Baton Rouge Garth Brooks
Kevin Na/Byeong Hun An Make ’em say Uhh Master P
Chris Kirk/J.T. Poston Crazy Train Ozzy Osbourne
Chez Reavie/Lucas Glover For Whom the Bell Tolls Metallica
Martin Piller/Joel Dahmen Lovumba Daddy Yankee
K.J. Choi/Charlie Wi Gangnam Style PSY
Ryan Armour/Johnson Wagner Enter Sandman Metallica
C.T. Pan/Zac Blair Half Time Ying Yang Twins
Tyrone Van Aswegen/Retief Goosen Africa Toto
Tom Hoge/J.J. Henry Right Now Van Halen
Shawn Stefani/John Rollins Thunderstruck AC/DC
Tony Finau/Daniel Summerhays Doo Wa Ditty (Blow That Thing) Zapp & Roger
Keith Mitchell/Stephan Jaeger Pizza Guy Touch Sensitive
Ben Silverman/Matt Atkins Enter Sandman Metallica
Zach Johnson/Jonathan Byrd Thunderstruck AC/DC
Patrick Reed/Patrick Cantlay Eye of the Tiger Survivor
Greg Chalmers/Cameron Percy Down Under Men at Work
Keegan Bradley/Jon Curran Shipping up to Boston Dropkick Murphys
Brendan Steele/Jamie Lovemark California Love Tupac
Charley Hoffman/Nick Watney California Love Tupac
Billy Horschel/Scott Piercy Young Forever Jay Z ft. Mrs. Hudson
Cody Gribble/John Peterson Careless Whisper George Michael
Steve Stricker/Jerry Kelly As Good As I Once Was Toby Keith
Chris Stroud/Brian Stuard Enter Sandman Metallica
Sergio Garcia/Rafa Cabrera Bello The Best Tina Turner
Kevin Tway/Kelly Kraft Gucci Gang Lil Pump
D.A. Points/Kyle Thompson Working for the Weekend Loverboy
Mac Hughes/Corey Conners Big League Tom Cochrane & Red Rider
Justin Thomas/Bud Cauley Circle of Life Carmen Twillie
Shane Lowry/Padraig Harrington Beautiful Day U2
Russell Knox/Martin Laird Flower of Scotland
Gary Woodland/Daniel Berger Forever Drake
Brandon Harkins/Lanto Griffin Started From the Bottom Drake
Kevin Kisner/Scott Brown Slippery Migos
Andrew Landry/Talor Gooch Big Poppa Notorious BIG
Jason Day/Ryan Ruffels Down Under Men at Work
Justin Rose/Henrik Stenson Gold Spandau Ballet
Matt Every/Sam Saunders Running With the Devil Van Halen
Jon Rahm/Wesley Bryan DNA Kendrick Lamar
Emiliano Grillo/Peter Uihlein Mi Gente (Remix) J Balvin, Willy William, Busta K.
Jamie Donaldson/Ross Fisher Sweet Disposition The Temper Trap
Harold Varner III/Robert Garrigus Ebony and Ivory Paul McCartney and Stevie Wonder
Alex Cejka/Ben Crane Here I Go Again Whitesnake
Abraham Ancer/Roberto Diaz Mexico Lindo y Querido Vicente Fernandez
Xinjun Zhang/Zecheng Dou Believe in Myself Zero Point Band

See what GolfWRX members think about the song selections in the forums.

 

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