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Talking golf betting in general, Masters betting in particular, with a pro gambler

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It’s no secret that the Masters is the biggest golf betting week of the year. Not only are golf fans who generally don’t punt keen to put a little cash on the line, but general sports fans tune in and pony up in a major way.

Puns aside, we wanted to pose a few questions to to a seasoned golf bettor to see what wisdom he can impart to the more recreational golf gamblers among us.

Dave is the owner of Top Market Sports, the only sports advisory site in the world that’s owned and operated by real Wall Street traders and analysts.

Q. If someone is considering getting into golf betting, what advice would you give him/her?

A. Don’t be scared to bet on underdogs. When betting futures (who will win a given tournament), the value is always in the bottom half of the board. Guys who bet golf for serious money are never going to be kicking themselves for missing out on a 6/1 or 7/1 winner. Look at the surprise winners we’ve seen so far this season. Ted Potter Jr. won at Pebble as a 200/1 shot. Patton Kizzire got the job done as a 75/1 shot in Hawaii. Those are serious payouts.

Q. There’s a lot more to betting on golf than picking who will win the tournament. Can you talk about betting during the tournament?

A. That’s what we specialize in. We’re not really big on betting futures. We’re more focused on round-by-round matchups. Example: Keegan Bradley vs Jamie Lovemark in Round 1. Who will have the lower score? These types of propositions are available at most major sports books. Again, recreational bettors look to bet on favorites. It’s human nature. But sharper players are selectively picking dogs.

Q. Is it generally a good idea to chase value in betting players ahead major tournament weeks?

A. It can work for you, but also against you. It also opens the door for hedging opportunities if you’ve established a position months in advance and the market has moved in your favor. Everyone wishes they had booked a fat ticket on Tiger to win the Masters when he was like 300/1 in October (laughs). Now he’s trading at about 10/1. A lot of guys would be looking to sell some or all of that ticket in order to lock in a profit. Buy low, sell high, right? At the same time, you could’ve gotten Hideki Matsuyama a couple months ago at 15/1. As of this morning he’s 35/1 because his form has faded a bit. So it works both ways.

Q. What resources do you rely on?

A. Statistics are readily available to the public just like they are in any other sport. Strokes gained numbers, greens-in-regulation, scrambling, etc. But if you really want to start profitably betting golf, there’s no substitute for just sitting down and grinding coverage. We like to DVR most of it so we can be efficient with our time. We also talk a lot about “boots on the ground” in our office. There’s nothing wrong or shady about actually being at the practice facility during these events. It’s public information, available to anyone at the event with open eyes and open ears. We’ve had guys at 7 tournaments so far this season. I don’t want to oversimplify it…but if a guy has the yips on the practice putting green, there might be some extra value in betting against him.

Q. Any past golf punts you’re particularly proud of?

A. One recent bet that we told our clients to load up on was Bubba Watson +145 vs Justin Thomas in the semis of the Dell Match Play. A guy who’s got two green jackets should not be that much of an underdog over the course of a single round, especially when he’s coming in hot after winning his group and then a tough quarterfinal match. Also, Bubba’s not the biggest fan favorite in the world, right? This is something we specifically talked about while handicapping the match. People like to root against Bubba, and that created even more value in the market. It was a max play for us. We really stepped out and hit that one hard.

Q. The Masters is the biggest golf betting week of the year. Do you approach it differently?

A. Golf betting markets are less liquid than most other sports. Meaning there’s a hell of a lot more money being bet on football and basketball than on golf or something like tennis. During the majors, there’s more public money AKA square money AKA dumb money in play, which can be mopped up nicely if you know what you’re doing. We’ll be making some of our biggest bets of the PGA Tour season during the Masters.

You can check out Top Market Sports for free betting picks, free articles, and a free real-time odds portal. They can also be found on Instagram @topmarketsports. Top Market Sports went 68-27-3 across all sports in the month of March.

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  1. Speedy

    Apr 3, 2018 at 4:38 pm

    I don’t think a fluke win is happening this week.

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19th Hole

The 6 best #GolfWRX photos on Instagram today (6.19.19)

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In this segment, we’ll be taking a look at some of the best #GolfWRX tagged photos on Instagram. In case you aren’t already, there’s a whole load of action going on at our page, so follow us: @golfwrx

Let’s get to it then, here are six of the best #GolfWRX photos from the past 24 hours.

Chesson Hadley celebrated his T9 finish at the U.S. Open by giving us all his rendition of “Shallow”.

Just enough sauce from Tyson Lamb?

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You can never have too much sauce. #LambCrafted

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New designs from Dormie Workshop.

Phil showcasing Philmont Country Club in Philadelphia.

Arriving later this week from Swag.

“Beer me” headcovers from Michael Martinez.

Get hashtagging your golf posts #GolfWRX for your chance to feature in our best of Instagram posts in the future!

 

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19th Hole

Gary Woodland discusses trading NBA ambitions for a U.S. Open title, what it meant to win in front of his father, and more on the Dan Patrick Show

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Gary Woodland dialed into the Dan Patrick Show this week where he discussed amongst other topics – his impressive U.S. Open victory at Pebble Beach, what it meant to have his father in attendance, and how he traded his NBA aspirations for his career in golf.

Speaking on the emotions he felt winning the U.S. Open on Father’s Day in front of his father, who suffered a heart attack in Woodland’s rookie year while he was playing at Pebble Beach, the 35-year-old described the occasion as one that “you can’t make up.”

Clips courtesy of AT&T Audience Network.

As well as Sunday’s victory, Woodland discussed how his sporting ambitions changed after initially desiring a career in the NBA. In the 10 minute interview, the U.S. Open champion mentioned how in his first basketball game in college when matched up against Kirk Hinrick he realised that “he needed to find something else to do”.

Woodland also talked about his celebrations which involved drinking vodka out of the trophy with Jordan Spieth – a ritual Justin Thomas wouldn’t partake in due to a superstition having not yet won the U.S. Open, as well as the advantage longer hitters on Tour now have whether the course is long or short, and his nerveless shots on 14 and 17 on Sunday.

Check out the entire interview in the video below.

The Dan Patrick Show airs daily at 9:00 a.m. – 12:00 p.m. ET on AT&T Audience Network which can be found on DIRECTV Ch. 239.

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19th Hole

Gary Woodland discusses beating Woods’ record, his approach on 14, and his clutch chip on 17 with Adam Schein

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U.S. Open Champion Gary Woodland made an appearance at SiriusXM’s Manhattan studios on Tuesday, where he sat down to discuss a multitude of topics with Adam Schein on his Mad Dog Sports Radio program – Schein on Sports.

Fresh off his career-defining victory at Pebble Beach, Woodland heaped praise on his caddie, Brennan Little, while speaking on the show, whom he credited with giving him the confidence to hit his outstanding second shot to the par-5 14th hole which led to birdie in the final round.

(*All quotes courtesy of SiriusXM’s Mad Dog Sports Radio)

“I’ll give the credit to my caddie on that one. It was one of those where we talked all week – I wanted to play aggressive. I wanted to play to win. I knew I was playing well. I got up there, I knew I had a one-shot lead. I’d actually – to that pin – I’d hit the chip shot left of the green, it wasn’t great in the practice rounds. I knew right’s out of bounds.

It was probably the first time all day I wanted to play conservative. I was actually thinking about laying up, and my caddie, it was the first time probably – we’ve been together three years – that he just, he said, ‘This is it. Hit three wood. Let’s go. Knock it up there, make a swing, hit at the right edge of the green and go.’ He gave me confidence, not only for that shot, but that gave me confidence in the last five holes.”

As for his clutch chip on 17 to save par, Woodland described his mindset taking the shot as well as how he was keeping tabs on what Koepka was doing at the same time on 18.

“Fortunately I had a similar shot off that green earlier in the week. That was one I’m just trying to make four. I can see Koepka on the green on 18; I saw he had a putt, I didn’t know if it was for birdie or for eagle. And I was trying to get it (the chip) past the hole, and it just came out perfectly with a little spin.”

Woodland also discussed beating Tiger Woods’ total of 12-under-par from the 2000 U.S. Open at Pebble Beach. The 35-year-old first mentioned how he recognized that Woods won that tournament by 15 strokes, before adding how he was aware of beating his 72-hole total, saying

“I knew it, but I was trying to two-putt. I wasn’t trying to make that putt. Once it got halfway there and it went in I obviously let the emotion out. My caddie came over to tell me congrats and I said, ‘You know that clipped Tiger by one?’ And he said, ‘No I didn’t.’ He was focused on the wrong stuff, he was focused on winning, I was focused on beating that record.”

While speaking more generally on Woods and the impact the 15-time major champion has on the game, Woodland described him being back as “everything”, which you can see in the embedded clip below.

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