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Fantasy Preview: 2018 Arnold Palmer Invitational

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After yet another exciting week on the PGA Tour, we move on to the Arnold Palmer Invitational as the build up to the year’s first major intensifies. For some, this week will be the final step in their Masters preparation, while for others it’s one of the final chances remaining to qualify. Tiger Woods heads the field here after his excellent performance last week and goes off as the favorite at 11/2.

Bay Hill is a tough golf course. It’s over 7,400 yards with fairway bunkers and thick rough that make it a very demanding test. With many long Par 4’s and Par 3’s on the course (as well as a lot of water), form and confidence with long irons is going to be critical this week, as is Par-5 scoring. Last year, Marc Leishman held off both Charley Hoffman and Kevin Kisner to post 11-under par and take the title by one stroke.

Selected Tournament Odds (via Bet365)

  • Tiger Woods 11/2
  • Jason Day 12/1
  • Justin Rose 14/1
  • Rory Mcilroy 18/1
  • Rickie Fowler 18/1
  • Tommy Fleetwood 20/1
  • Hideki Matsuyama 25/1

Tiger mania is back. The man who has dominated this event is a best price 6/1 to claim title his ninth title here this week. His performance at Copperhead was enough for punters to declare that he is back, and if you subscribe to that then it’s not exactly a bad price considering his past success at this event. The one crumb of comfort for the rest of the field is that Tiger has yet to dominate the Par 5’s so far this year, something he always managed to do in his prime. If he takes care of the Par 5’s this week then I imagine he’ll win, but the price is still a tad skinny for me.

Instead, I believe there’s a lot of value with a player who was a single-digit favorite just a few weeks ago. Rickie Fowler (18/1, DK Price $10,300) has been a mixed bag so far this year. Because of his popularity he rarely has a lot of value attached to his price, but I think this week he does. At a best price of 20/1, it’s the biggest he has gone off in a long time. A lot of that will have to do with his mediocre performance in Mexico, which was a display that was entirely down to his putting. It was his worst performance on the greens in over four years, and he will be very happy to be returning to Bermuda greens this week on which he has always putted extremely well.

In his last 12 rounds, Fowler sits 15th in Strokes Gained Approaching the Green and 16th in Ball Striking. In his last start in Mexico, he produced statistically his best display with his irons since last year at the Quicken Loans. He is just failing to score at the moment, something that I feel is about to change. Par-4 scoring between 450-500 yards will be important this week with six holes falling in this category. In his past 12 rounds, Fowler sits 10th for efficiency from this range.

Bay Hill is also a place that Fowler has played well in the past. He finished T3 here on his debut back in 2013, and last year he finished solo 12th. Crucially, I don’t see a repeat of what happened on the greens in Mexico. Fowler has gained 11.7 strokes over the field at this tournament on the greens in his four starts. With his iron game returning, greens he loves and now at a far more attractive price than usual, I’m more than happy to back Rickie this week.

Speaking of iron games returning, Adam Scott (35/1, DK Price $8,700) is on fire right now from tee to green. In his last two starts, he has gained a whopping 15.9 strokes over the field from tee to green. The Australian is beginning to peak at the right time, and this may be his final start before Augusta unless he has a great week and qualifies for next week’s WGC. Of course, not everything is peaking at the right time for Scott, and his putting is showing no sign of improvement. Despite his putter, he was able to finish T16 last week. Bay Hill is definitely a course that fits his eye. In his last three starts, he has finishes of 12th-35th-3rd.

Taking care of the Par 5’s this week is going to be vitally important, and Scott is ranked No. 1 in this field for proficiency on Par 5’s over his last eight rounds. On Par 4’s that measure between 450-500 yards, he ranks 3rd in the field for efficiency over his last 12 rounds. If he could just manage to putt average by his standards, he will be right there this week. The rest of his game is ready to compete, and because of that he looks an attractive price.

Another man who is showing signs of hitting top form is Louis Oosthuizen (55/1, DK Price 8,200). The South African has been quiet lately, but a T12 last week where his ball striking shone was a very good sign. Bay Hill should also suit his excellent tee-to-green game well, and it’s no surprise that he has a top-10 finish here on his resume.

Bay Hill is a big golf course, and it provides a serious test of long irons. Oosthuizen should be licking his chops at this test, as recently his long irons have been sensational. For his last 12 rounds, he is ranked 5th in the field for proximity to the hole from 200+ yards and 3rd from 175-200 yards. Overall, the South African is No. 1 in proximity in the same period. Putting has never been an asset for Oosthuizen, but encouragingly he has a positive strokes gained total on the greens of over six strokes on his previous two starts at Bay Hill. At 55/1, he seems a little too big and there are enough signs that Oosthuizen is ready to do some damage this week.

Finally, my last pick looks a very big price. Keegan Bradley (100/1, DK Price $7,300) has been lighting it up tee to green for some time, and it seems this part of his game is at the height of its powers. In his last 24 rounds, the American sits 1st in Strokes Gained Tee to Green, 1st in Ball Striking and 2nd in Strokes Gained Approaching the Green. Unfortunately, he is undoing all of this great work on the greens, where he is putting horrendously. Despite this, I feel 100/1 is too big for a guy who has already placed this season at the Farmers and now returns to a track that is tailor made for his game.

In five outings at Bay Hill, Bradley has never missed a cut and has two top-5 finishes to his name. It’s a course that rewards excellent tee-to-green play, and nobody is doing that better than him at the moment. Whether he can win with his putting being so poor at the moment is questionable, but there is still enough value around Keegan in several markets including top-10 and top-5, as well as adding him to your DraftKings lineups.

Recommended Plays

  • Rickie Fowler 18/1, DK Price $10,300
  • Adam Scott 35/1, DK Price $8,700
  • Louis Oosthuizen 55/1, DK Price $8,200
  • Keegan Bradley 100/1, DK Price $7,300
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Gianni is the Managing Editor at GolfWRX. He can be contacted at [email protected].

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans betting preview

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The PGA TOUR heads to New Orleans to play the 2023 Zurich Classic of New Orleans. In a welcome change from the usual stroke play, the Zurich Classic is a team event. On Thursday and Saturday, the teams play best ball, and on Friday and Sunday the teams play alternate shot.

TPC Louisiana is a par 72 that measures 7,425 yards. The course features some short par 4s and plenty of water and bunkers, which makes for a lot of exciting risk/reward scenarios for competitors. Pete Dye designed the course in 2004 specifically for the Zurich Classic, although the event didn’t make its debut until 2007 because of Hurricane Katrina.

Coming off of the Masters and a signature event in consecutive weeks, the field this week is a step down, and understandably so. Many of the world’s top players will be using this time to rest after a busy stretch.

However, there are some interesting teams this season with some stars making surprise appearances in the team event. Some notable teams include Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry, Collin Morikawa and Kurt Kitayama, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala as well as a few Canadian teams, Nick Taylor and Adam Hadwin and Taylor Pendrith and Corey Conners.

Past Winners at TPC Louisiana

  • 2023: Riley/Hardy (-30)
  • 2022: Cantlay/Schauffele (-29)
  • 2021: Leishman/Smith (-20)
  • 2019: Palmer/Rahm (-26)
  • 2018: Horschel/Piercy (-22)
  • 2017: Blixt/Smith (-27)

2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans Picks

Tom Hoge/Maverick McNealy +2500 (DraftKings)

Tom Hoge is coming off of a solid T18 finish at the RBC Heritage and finished T13 at last year’s Zurich Classic alongside Harris English.

This season, Hoge is having one of his best years on Tour in terms of Strokes Gained: Approach. In his last 24 rounds, the only player to top him on the category is Scottie Scheffler. Hoge has been solid on Pete Dye designs, ranking 28th in the field over his past 36 rounds.

McNealy is also having a solid season. He’s finished T6 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and T9 at the PLAYERS Championship. He recently started working with world renowned swing coach, Butch Harmon, and its seemingly paid dividends in 2024.

Keith Mitchell/Joel Dahmen +4000 (DraftKings)

Keith Mitchell is having a fantastic season, finishing in the top-20 of five of his past seven starts on Tour. Most recently, Mitchell finished T14 at the Valero Texas Open and gained a whopping 6.0 strokes off the tee. He finished 6th at last year’s Zurich Classic.

Joel Dahmen is having a resurgent year and has been dialed in with his irons. He also has a T11 finish at the PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass which is another Pete Dye track. With Mitchell’s length and Dahmen’s ability to put it close with his short irons, the Mitchell/Dahmen combination will be dangerous this week.

Taylor Moore/Matt NeSmith +6500 (DraftKings)

Taylor Moore has quickly developed into one of the more consistent players on Tour. He’s finished in the top-20 in three of his past four starts, including a very impressive showing at The Masters, finishing T20. He’s also finished T4 at this event in consecutive seasons alongside Matt NeSmith.

NeSmith isn’t having a great 2024, but has seemed to elevate his game in this format. He finished T26 at Pete Dye’s TPC Sawgrass, which gives the 30-year-old something to build off of. NeSmith is also a great putter on Bermudagrass, which could help elevate Moore’s ball striking prowess.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 LIV Adelaide betting preview: Cam Smith ready for big week down under

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After having four of the top twelve players on the leaderboard at The Masters, LIV Golf is set for their fifth event of the season: LIV Adelaide. 

For both LIV fans and golf fans in Australia, LIV Adelaide is one of the most anticipated events of the year. With 35,000 people expected to attend each day of the tournament, the Grange Golf Club will be crawling with fans who are passionate about the sport of golf. The 12th hole, better known as “the watering hole”, is sure to have the rowdiest of the fans cheering after a long day of drinking some Leishman Lager.  

The Grange Golf Club is a par-72 that measures 6,946 yards. The course features minimal resistance, as golfers went extremely low last season. In 2023, Talor Gooch shot consecutive rounds of 62 on Thursday and Friday, giving himself a gigantic cushion heading into championship Sunday. Things got tight for a while, but in the end, the Oklahoma State product was able to hold off The Crushers’ Anirban Lahiri for a three-shot victory. 

The Four Aces won the team competition with the Range Goats finishing second. 

*All Images Courtesy of LIV Golf*

Past Winners at LIV Adelaide

  • 2023: Talor Gooch (-19)

Stat Leaders Through LIV Miami

Green in Regulation

  1. Richard Bland
  2. Jon Rahm
  3. Paul Casey

Fairways Hit

  1. Abraham Ancer
  2. Graeme McDowell
  3. Henrik Stenson

Driving Distance

  1. Bryson DeChambeau
  2. Joaquin Niemann
  3. Dean Burmester

Putting

  1. Cameron Smith
  2. Louis Oosthuizen
  3. Matt Jones

2024 LIV Adelaide Picks

Cameron Smith +1400 (DraftKings)

When I pulled up the odds for LIV Adelaide, I was more than a little surprised to see multiple golfers listed ahead of Cameron Smith on the betting board. A few starts ago, Cam finished runner-up at LIV Hong Kong, which is a golf course that absolutely suits his eye. Augusta National in another course that Smith could roll out of bed and finish in the top-ten at, and he did so two weeks ago at The Masters, finishing T6.

At Augusta, he gained strokes on the field on approach, off the tee (slightly), and of course, around the green and putting. Smith able to get in the mix at a major championship despite coming into the week feeling under the weather tells me that his game is once again rounding into form.

The Grange Golf Club is another course that undoubtedly suits the Australian. Smith is obviously incredibly comfortable playing in front of the Aussie faithful and has won three Australian PGA Championship’s. The course is very short and will allow Smith to play conservative off the tee, mitigating his most glaring weakness. With birdies available all over the golf course, there’s a chance the event turns into a putting contest, and there’s no one on the planet I’d rather have in one of those than Cam Smith.

Louis Oosthuizen +2200 (DraftKings)

Louis Oosthuizen has simply been one of the best players on LIV in the 2024 seas0n. The South African has finished in the top-10 on the LIV leaderboard in three of his five starts, with his best coming in Jeddah, where he finished T2. Perhaps more impressively, Oosthuizen finished T7 at LIV Miami, which took place at Doral’s “Blue Monster”, an absolutely massive golf course. Given that Louis is on the shorter side in terms of distance off the tee, his ability to play well in Miami shows how dialed he is with the irons this season.

In addition to the LIV finishes, Oosthuizen won back-to-back starts on the DP World Tour in December at the Alfred Dunhill Championship and the Mauritus Open. He also finished runner-up at the end of February in the International Series Oman. The 41-year-old has been one of the most consistent performers of 2024, regardless of tour.

For the season, Louis ranks 4th on LIV in birdies made, T9 in fairways hit and first in putting. He ranks 32nd in driving distance, but that won’t be an issue at this short course. Last season, he finished T11 at the event, but was in decent position going into the final round but fell back after shooting 70 while the rest of the field went low. This season, Oosthuizen comes into the event in peak form, and the course should be a perfect fit for his smooth swing and hot putter this week.

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Opinion & Analysis

The Wedge Guy: What really makes a wedge work? Part 1

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Of all the clubs in our bags, wedges are almost always the simplest in construction and, therefore, the easiest to analyze what might make one work differently from another if you know what to look for.

Wedges are a lot less mysterious than drivers, of course, as the major brands are working with a lot of “pixie dust” inside these modern marvels. That’s carrying over more to irons now, with so many new models featuring internal multi-material technologies, and almost all of them having a “badge” or insert in the back to allow more complex graphics while hiding the actual distribution of mass.

But when it comes to wedges, most on the market today are still single pieces of molded steel, either cast or forged into that shape. So, if you look closely at where the mass is distributed, it’s pretty clear how that wedge is going to perform.

To start, because of their wider soles, the majority of the mass of almost any wedge is along the bottom third of the clubhead. So, the best wedge shots are always those hit between the 2nd and 5th grooves so that more mass is directly behind that impact. Elite tour professionals practice incessantly to learn to do that consistently, wearing out a spot about the size of a penny right there. If impact moves higher than that, the face is dramatically thinner, so smash factor is compromised significantly, which reduces the overall distance the ball will fly.

Every one of us, tour players included, knows that maddening shot that we feel a bit high on the face and it doesn’t go anywhere, it’s not your fault.

If your wedges show a wear pattern the size of a silver dollar, and centered above the 3rd or 4th groove, you are not getting anywhere near the same performance from shot to shot. Robot testing proves impact even two to three grooves higher in the face can cause distance loss of up to 35 to 55 feet with modern ‘tour design’ wedges.

In addition, as impact moves above the center of mass, the golf club principle of gear effect causes the ball to fly higher with less spin. Think of modern drivers for a minute. The “holy grail” of driving is high launch and low spin, and the driver engineers are pulling out all stops to get the mass as low in the clubhead as possible to optimize this combination.

Where is all the mass in your wedges? Low. So, disregarding the higher lofts, wedges “want” to launch the ball high with low spin – exactly the opposite of what good wedge play requires penetrating ball flight with high spin.

While almost all major brand wedges have begun putting a tiny bit more thickness in the top portion of the clubhead, conventional and modern ‘tour design’ wedges perform pretty much like they always have. Elite players learn to hit those crisp, spinny penetrating wedge shots by spending lots of practice time learning to consistently make contact low in the face.

So, what about grooves and face texture?

Grooves on any club can only do so much, and no one has any material advantage here. The USGA tightly defines what we manufacturers can do with grooves and face texture, and modern manufacturing techniques allow all of us to push those limits ever closer. And we all do. End of story.

Then there’s the topic of bounce and grinds, the most complex and confusing part of the wedge formula. Many top brands offer a complex array of sole configurations, all of them admittedly specialized to a particular kind of lie or turf conditions, and/or a particular divot pattern.

But if you don’t play the same turf all the time, and make the same size divot on every swing, how would you ever figure this out?

The only way is to take any wedge you are considering and play it a few rounds, hitting all the shots you face and observing the results. There’s simply no other way.

So, hopefully this will inspire a lively conversation in our comments section, and I’ll chime in to answer any questions you might have.

And next week, I’ll dive into the rest of the wedge formula. Yes, shafts, grips and specifications are essential, too.

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