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Smartphones and competitive golf

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By Chris Hibler

GolfWRX Contributor

In a tournament this past weekend I inadvertently opened a can of worms. I asked the tournament director if I was allowed to use my iPhone as a distance measuring device. The answer I received was an unequivocal “yes,” but he added, “just as long as you only use it for distance.”

My cart partner overheard out discussion and promptly lost his marbles!  He began spouting about it being against the rules:

“The tournament director does not have the power to overrule the USGA,” he said.

I decided to play it conservatively, sticking to my trusty rangefinder instead of my iPhone. As soon as the round ended, I jumped onto my iPad to see what I could find out about this murky and misunderstood rule. You know what I found out? It is a murky rule and I have misunderstood it all year long.

Here are the facts: Prior to 2006, all distance-measuring devices (aka DMD’s) were illegal during competitive rounds. In 2006, the USGA and R&A made a ruling saying that golfers could use a DMD under Local Rules during competitive rounds as long as the devices were either dedicated devices (i.e., laser ranger finders or GPS units) or golfers could use smartphones as long as they only used the devices for the DMD and not for weather or any other “illegal” data.  Thus, we as golfers, were on the “honor system” — as it should be.

But, this year, the USGA and R&A came out and essentially reversed their argument saying that smartphones could be used as DMD as long as they didn’t have the capability anywhere on the device of measuring wind velocity or accessing weather data. This rendered all smartphones illegal as, in the case of iPhones, the phones contain an embedded weather app that cannot be deleted.  Also, all smartphones are web-accessible, meaning you could access any website that has weather info from virtually any smartphone on the market.

This is not new news to most of you as the smartphone ban has been widely discussed since the GPS apps that many golfers have bought have been rendered useless for tournament play by the USGA this year. That could give you an unfair advantage by possibly glancing at your built-in weather app to tell you the speed and direction of the prevailing wind (which could vary widely from where the golfer is on the course, but I digress).

Back at my tournament, since I decided that I would not stir up controversy by using my iPhone, I was faced with a day with no access to my device at all — radio silence. It was just me, my clubs, my laser rangefinder and the hope that a TV was on at the turn to check NFL scores. Yes, many of you are applauding this as you would rather have me focus my attention on my round as opposed to sneaking glances at my “DirecTV Sunday Ticket” app – it keeps the round moving you say. I get that. But for me, the issue isn’t about checking football scores, using the latest golf GPS app, calling home, or even checking the wind speed; the issue here is about trust and integrity — and maybe even greed.

By banning the use of smartphones and related devices, the USGA is essentially saying that if a typical golfer uses these devices they are going to cheat. I’ve got news for you USGA, if I am going to cheat, I am going to REALLY cheat.  What are the ways to REALLY cheat?  Here they are in no particular order:

  • “Find” my lost ball in the deep woods by dropping a matching ball down my pant leg.
  • Improve my lie in the greenside rough to make it easier to chip the ball
  • Count my whiff in the long grass as “a practice swing.”
  • Mark my ball closer to the hole to shorten my putt.

Do I do these things? No. Have I seen (or suspected others) from doing these? You bet. I know one thing, nowhere on that list do you see where I think that a device will give me a wind speed reading that will actually help me to lower my score. I also didn’t make any note on that list about how a compass reading would assist me in any way.

I will go so far as to say that at even the highest level of golf, there would be little advantage gained with the knowledge that a smartphone could tell them about wind direction or wind speed that they couldn’t better themselves by dropping grass clippings in midair moments before their shot.

My point is this: golf is a game of integrity. The job for us as golfers is to play the course fair and square. We call penalties on ourselves when the ball moves inadvertently. We mark the ball where it came to rest on the green. We don’t try to cheat our competitors or ourselves. If you do, you don’t belong in this game.

I personally believe two things about golf integrity, which I call “Golf Karma”

  1. The guilt of “getting away” with a cheat weighs heavily on the golfer’s mind resulting in errant shots as the round progresses.
  2. We get rewarded later in the round for calling a penalty on ourselves (that no one else knew about let alone suspected) based on real self-confidence borne from integrity.

I would like it if the USGA would actually trust us. But, I have a sinking suspicion that the answer lies somewhere in the dirty underbelly of golf merchandising: the groups that benefit most from this inane ruling are the companies that specialize in the “legal” yardage devices. By quashing the low-priced app competition, the USGA has essentially ruled in favor of the handful of companies that create dedicated GPS units and laser rangefinders.

The other point is that common sense tells us that essentially banning smartphones in 2012 and beyond is just not practical in this day and age. Yes, I can recall the old and simpler days where I would leave my phone in the car, take my four hours out on the links and just tune out of life. But, we are simply not wired this way anymore. Our devices have become an extension of ourselves. For golf, it’s simply not practical to ban my possession of a smartphone on the course. I track my stats for later analysis. I keep my scorecards on my phone to see how my game is progressing. Yes, there’s is some wishy-washy part of the rule that states that you can have your phone in your pocket or something along those lines if it’s not in use.

But, I don’t like your chances with a hardline tournament director trying to argue, “I wasn’t using it, it was just in my pocket, kind of off with no weather app and stuff.”

At the end of the day, I would just like the USGA to trust and allow me as a golfer to do a few simple things in 2013:

  • Not cheat with my smartphone while using it during a competitive round.
  • Not slow play by device distraction.
  • Actually speed up play by knowing my yardage quickly without wandering around looking for sprinklers or yardage markers.
  • Save money in a tough economy by using affordable GPS apps on smartphones
  • Use mobile devices versus feeling obligated to purchase expensive “legal” yardage devices.

One final thought and a note to the USGA: what exactly am I supposed to do with my handy and convenient “Rules of Golf” app that you offer through the App store anyway?  I just want to be sure I know what to say when my competitor “finds” his ball in the woods a minute before I find it.

Click here for more discussion in the “Tour Talk” forum. 

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Chris Hibler is an avid golfer, writer and golf gear junkie. If he's not practicing his game with his kids, he's scouring the GolfWRX classifieds looking for a score.

9 Comments

9 Comments

  1. troy

    Nov 12, 2012 at 12:21 pm

    Great article Chris about the intersection of golf and technology. I agree with you — ultimately, the rules of golf are about integrity and self-regulation. You are expected to penalize yourself for infractions and as such each golfer should be trusted not to break the rules with their smart phones.

    I believe in golf karma as well! You will pay for “cheating” and be rewarded for playing by the rules!

  2. dapadre

    Nov 12, 2012 at 8:02 am

    Apologis for my misspellings.

  3. dapadre

    Nov 12, 2012 at 8:01 am

    Nice article. Sometimes I think that we humans love to complicate VERY SIMPLE things. Um, why dont they simply create or approve/sanction a DMD application. Nowadays, this can be ctreated (application) at fractions of the cost. Thsi application would pnly relay distance. Problem solved or am I missing somthing.

  4. tlmck

    Nov 11, 2012 at 7:40 am

    The USGA and R&A are so passe’. It is time for them to go away before they drive all others away.

  5. Dane

    Nov 11, 2012 at 5:25 am

    Golfshot app is what I use too. It’s great, simple, useful and keeps all your stats.

  6. ConradMacDonald

    Nov 10, 2012 at 10:09 pm

    Smartphones should be legal for all competition with the exception of professional tours where it is there job to play golf. For 99.9% of golfers they don’t make there money there and there work could call. In this day and age some people cannot take 4 hours off the phone. I play with many business owners that take calls all round because they have to, business comes before pleasure…

  7. Mats B

    Nov 10, 2012 at 4:18 am

    Great article! We need to get this debate on top of the board. You mension a whole deal of great points and from different perspective.

    I suggest we all put this article on our Facebook walls, Twitter accounts, and make a copy paste mail to our local golf club, our local golf union and national PGA society. USGA and R&A has simply made a mistake changing this rule or adding a change to the rule in 2012. It needs to be corrected sooner than later otherwise it will harm the development of the game and the growth of new players enthusiast joining the game. Which teenager shuts off his mobile phone and put it away for 4-5 hours? No one I know and they are the future for this game…. Todays society demand that you’re accessable almost 24/7, I’m not stating that it’s good, but it is reality. If we are not allowed using our phones on course, we simply don’t go out to the course. And while having your smartphone out there, why not try to use it for the best? Where players can choose themselves how much they want to engage in the game, point down scores and use statistics in order to improve their game and so on….. Why having isolated devices for each task or function, when the technique allows us to gather all we need and require in one device. It’s a time saver, using one device instead of having to go through a number of devices during a round of golf.

    Wake up USGA and R&A, it’s time to realize that future won’t allow for silly roule changes simular to the changes you made last year, it will hurt the game of golf and the sport of golf, in a wider perspective than a few Manufacturers of DMD:s.

    As a reply to your last question Nate, I use Golfshot to my iphone and it works great for me. Once you’ve got used to it, it’s simple, a time saver and gives you an increased awareness of you game and capabilities, if you use the functions for statistic.

    Again, great article and great subject.

    /Mats

  8. Nate Leeds

    Nov 9, 2012 at 9:31 pm

    Great article with many interesting points I’ve never considered. I completely agree, the use of a smartphone should be allowed with the honest onus on us.

    What is the best app to track stats? What kind of stats can I track?

    Thanks in advance.

    Nate

  9. Princeton_TN

    Nov 9, 2012 at 12:27 pm

    I had the exact opposite hit me last week. While playing in a tournament my job called me on three different holes. I had to answer, it was my job! Of course it was a smart phone, and at the time I was leading the tournament or so I was told. After the conclusion of the three hole stretch that I had to talk on the phone, one of the rules officials came up to me on the tee box and informed me that a two stroke penalty was given to me for each hole in which I used my smart phone for phone calls in which I was inside the players ropes! WOW a stretch of holes I just went birdie, birdie and par were now bogey, bogey and double bogey! I asked for an explanation because I was using it for only the call, and was told by my caddie to shut up cause he thought that I should have been disqualified! None the less after words I was destroyed and ended up loosing the event by 8 strokes, I shot an 82 and 74 won the event! It was on holes 10, 11 and 12 and I was 3 over at the turn and had just gotten it to one over before the penalties were assessed… I mean really!!! I think that with the yardage books used today, range finders leagal for USGA and R&A play, why not allow the use of cell phones and any measuring devices that they can hold! It isnt as if only one or two would gain an advantage, because we all have access to them today!!!

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open betting preview

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As the Florida swing comes to an end, the PGA Tour makes its way to Houston to play the Texas Children’s Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course.

This will be the fourth year that Memorial Park Golf Course will serve as the tournament host. The event did not take place in 2023, but the course hosted the event in 2020, 2021 and 2022.

Memorial Park is a par-70 layout measuring 7,432 yards and features Bermudagrass greens. Historically, the main defense for the course has been thick rough along the fairways and tightly mown runoff areas around the greens. Memorial Park has a unique setup that features three Par 5’s and five Par 3’s.

The field will consist of 132 players, with the top 65 and ties making the cut. There are some big names making the trip to Houston, including Scottie Scheffler, Wyndham Clark, Tony Finau, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala.

Past Winners at Memorial Park

  • 2022: Tony Finau (-16)
  • 2021: Jason Kokrak (-10)
  • 2020: Carlos Ortiz (-13)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Memorial Park

Let’s take a look at several metrics for Memorial Park to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds:

Strokes Gained: Approach

Memorial Park is a pretty tough golf course. Golfers are penalized for missing greens and face some difficult up and downs to save par. Approach will be key.

Total Strokes Gained: Approach per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.30)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.26)
  3. Keith Mitchell (+0.97) 
  4. Tony Finau (+0.92)
  5. Jake Knapp (+0.84)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Memorial Park is a long golf course with rough that can be penal. Therefore, a combination of distance and accuracy is the best metric.

Total Strokes Gained: Off the Tee per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+0.94)
  2. Kevin Dougherty (+0.93)
  3. Cameron Champ (+0.86)
  4. Rafael Campos (+0.84)
  5. Si Woo Kim (+0.70)

Strokes Gained Putting: Bermudagrass + Fast

The Bermudagrass greens played fairly fast the past few years in Houston. Jason Kokrak gained 8.7 strokes putting on his way to victory in 2021 and Tony Finau gained in 7.8 in 2022.

Total Strokes Gained Putting (Bermudagrass) per round past 24 rounds (min. 8 rounds):

  1. Adam Svensson (+1.27)
  2. Harry Hall (+1.01)
  3. Martin Trainer (+0.94)
  4. Taylor Montgomery (+0.88)
  5. S.H. Kim (+0.86)

Strokes Gained: Around the Green

With firm and undulating putting surfaces, holding the green on approach shots may prove to be a challenge. Memorial Park has many tightly mowed runoff areas, so golfers will have challenging up-and-down’s around the greens. Carlos Ortiz gained 5.7 strokes around the green on the way to victory in 2020.

Total Strokes Gained: Around the Green per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Mackenzie Hughes (+0.76)
  2. S.H. Kim (+0.68)
  3. Scottie Scheffler (+0.64)
  4. Jorge Campillo (+0.62)
  5. Jason Day (+0.60)

Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult

Memorial Park is a long and difficult golf course. This statistic will incorporate players who’ve had success on these types of tracks in the past. 

Total Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.45)
  2. Ben Griffin (+1.75)
  3. Will Zalatoris (+1.73)
  4. Ben Taylor (+1.53)
  5. Tony Finau (+1.42)

Course History

Here are the players who have performed the most consistently at Memorial Park. 

Strokes Gained Total at Memorial Park past 12 rounds:

  1. Tyson Alexander (+3.65)
  2. Ben Taylor (+3.40)
  3. Tony Finau (+2.37)
  4. Joel Dahmen (+2.25)
  5. Patton Kizzire (+2.16)

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (24%) SG: OTT (24%); SG: Putting Bermudagrass/Fast (13%); SG: Long and Difficult (13%); SG: ARG (13%) and Course History (13%)

  1. Scottie Scheffler
  2. Wyndham Clark
  3. Tony Finau
  4. Joel Dahmen
  5. Stephan Jaeger 
  6. Aaron Rai
  7. Sahith Theegala
  8. Keith Mitchell 
  9. Jhonnatan Vegas
  10. Jason Day
  11. Kurt Kitayama
  12. Alex Noren
  13. Will Zalatoris
  14. Si Woo Kim
  15. Adam Long

2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open Picks

Will Zalatoris +2000 (Caesars)

Scottie Scheffler will undoubtedly be difficult to beat this week, so I’m starting my card with someone who I believe has the talent to beat him if he doesn’t have his best stuff.

Will Zalatoris missed the cut at the PLAYERS, but still managed to gain strokes on approach while doing so. In an unpredictable event with extreme variance, I don’t believe it would be wise to discount Zalatoris based on that performance. Prior to The PLAYERS, the 27-year-old finished T13, T2 and T4 in his previous three starts.

Zalatoris plays his best golf on long and difficult golf courses. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the category, but the eye test also tells a similar story. He’s contended at major championships and elevated events in the best of fields with tough scoring conditions.  The Texas resident should be a perfect fit at Memorial Park Golf Club.

Alex Noren +4500 (FanDuel)

Alex Noren has been quietly playing some of his best golf of the last half decade this season. The 41-year-old is coming off back-to-back top-20 finishes in Florida including a T9 at The PLAYERS in his most recent start.

In his past 24 rounds, Noren ranks 21st in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 30th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, 25th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses and 21st in Strokes Gained: Putting on fast Bermudagrass greens.

In addition to his strong recent play, the Swede also has played well at Memorial Park. In 2022, Noren finished T4 at the event, gaining 2.2 strokes off the tee and 7.0 strokes on approach for the week. In his two starts at the course, he’s gained an average of .6 strokes per round on the field, indicating he is comfortable on these greens.

Noren has been due for a win for what feels like an eternity, but Memorial Park may be the course that suits him well enough for him to finally get his elusive first PGA Tour victory.

Mackenzie Hughes +8000 (FanDuel)

Mackenzie Hughes found himself deep into contention at last week’s Valspar Championship before faltering late and finishing in a tie for 3rd place. While he would have loved to win the event, it’s hard to see the performance as anything other than an overwhelming positive sign for the Canadian.

Hughes has played great golf at Memorial Park in the past. He finished T7 in 2020, T29 in 2021 and T16 in 2022. The course fit seems to be quite strong for Hughes. He’s added distance off the tee in the past year or and ranks 8th in the field for apex height, which will be a key factor when hitting into Memorial Park’s elevated greens with steep run-off areas.

In his past 24 rounds, Hughes is the best player in the field in Strokes Gained: Around the Greens. The ability to scramble at this course will be extremely important. I believe Hughes can build off of his strong finish last week and contend once again to cement himself as a President’s Cup consideration.

Akshay Bhatia +8000 (FanDuel)

Akshay Bhatia played well last week at the Valspar and seemed to be in total control of his golf ball. He finished in a tie for 17th and shot an impressive -3 on a difficult Sunday. After struggling Thursday, Akshay shot 68-70-68 in his next three rounds.

Thus far, Bhatia has played better at easier courses, but his success at Copperhead may be due to his game maturing. The 22-year-old has enormous potential and the raw talent to be one of the best players in the world when he figures it all out.

Bhatia is a high upside play with superstar qualities and may just take the leap forward to the next stage of his career in the coming months.

Cameron Champ +12000 (FanDuel)

Cameron Champ is a player I often target in the outright betting market due to his “boom-or-bust” nature. It’s hard to think of a player in recent history with three PGA Tour wins who’s been as inconsistent as Champ has over the course of his career.

Despite the erratic play, Cam Champ simply knows how to win. He’s won in 2018, 2019 and 2021, so I feel he’s due for a win at some point this season. The former Texas A&M product should be comfortable in Texas and last week he showed us that his game is in a pretty decent spot.

Over his past 24 rounds, Champ ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 30th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses. Given his ability to spike at any given time, Memorial Park is a good golf course to target Champ on at triple digit odds.

Robert MacIntyre +12000 (FanDuel)

The challenge this week is finding players who can possibly beat Scottie Scheffler while also not dumping an enormous amount of money into an event that has a player at the top that looks extremely dangerous. Enter McIntyre, who’s another boom-or-bust type player who has the ceiling to compete with anyone when his game is clicking on all cylinders.

In his past 24 rounds, MacIntyre ranks 16th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 17th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and 10th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses.

MacIntyre’s PGA Tour season has gotten off to a slow start, but he finished T6 in Mexico, which is a course where players will hit driver on the majority of their tee shots, which is what we will see at Memorial Park. Texas can also get quite windy, which should suit MacIntyre. Last July, the Scot went toe to toe with Rory McIlroy at the Scottish Open before a narrow defeat. It would take a similar heroic effort to compete with Scheffler this year in Houston.

Ryan Moore +15000 (FanDuel)

Ryan Moore’s iron play has been absolutely unconscious over his past few starts. At The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field, he gained 6.1 strokes on approach and last week at Copperhead, he gained 9.0 strokes on approach.

It’s been a rough handful of years on Tour for the 41-year-old, but he is still a five-time winner on the PGA Tour who’s young enough for a career resurgence. Moore has chronic deterioration in a costovertebral joint that connects the rib to the spine, but has been getting more consistent of late, which is hopefully a sign that he is getting healthy.

Veterans have been contending in 2024 and I believe taking a flier on a proven Tour play who’s shown signs of life is a wise move at Memorial Park.

 

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Why the race to get better at golf might be doing more harm than good

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B.F. Skinner was one of the most important psychologists of the 20th century, developing the foundation of the development of reinforcement, and in doing so, creating the concept of behaviorism. In simple terms, this means that we are conditioned by our habits. In practical terms, it explains the divide between the few and far between elite instructors and college coaches.

To understand the application, let’s quickly review one of B.F. Skinner’s most important experiments; superstitions in the formation of behavior by pigeons. In this experiment, food was dispensed to pigeons at random intervals. Soon, according to Skinner, the pigeons began to associate whatever action they were doing at the time of the food being dispensed. According to Skinner, this conditioned that response and soon, they simply haphazardly repeated the action, failing to distinguish between cause and correlation (and in the meantime, looking really funny!).

Now, this is simply the best way to describe the actions of most every women’s college golf coach and too many instructors in America. They see something work, get positive feedback and then become conditioned to give the feedback, more and more, regardless of if it works (this is also why tips from your buddies never work!).

Go to a college event, particularly a women’s one, and you will see coaches running all over the place. Like the pigeons in the experiment, they have been conditioned into a codependent relationship with their players in which they believe their words and actions, can transform a round of golf. It is simply hilarious while being equally perturbing

In junior golf, it’s everywhere. Junior golf academies make a living selling parents that a hysterical coach and over-coaching are essential ingredients in your child’s success.

Let’s be clear, no one of any intellect has any real interest in golf — because it’s not that interesting. The people left, including most coaches and instructors, carve out a small fiefdom, usually on the corner of the range, where they use the illusion of competency to pray on people. In simple terms, they baffle people with the bullshit of pseudo-science that they can make you better, after just one more lesson.

The reality is that life is an impromptu game. The world of golf, business, and school have a message that the goal is being right. This, of course, is bad advice, being right in your own mind is easy, trying to push your ideas on others is hard. As a result, it is not surprising that the divorce rate among golf professionals and their instructors is 100 percent. The transfer rate among college players continues to soar, and too many courses have a guy peddling nefarious science to good people. In fact, we do at my course!

The question is, what impact does all this have on college-age and younger kids? At this point, we honestly don’t know. However, I am going to go out on a limb and say it isn’t good.

Soren Kierkegaard once quipped “I saw it for what it is, and I laughed.” The actions of most coaches and instructors in America are laughable. The problem is that I am not laughing because they are doing damage to kids, as well as driving good people away from this game.

The fact is that golfers don’t need more tips, secrets, or lessons. They need to be presented with a better understanding of the key elements of golf. With this understanding, they can then start to frame which information makes sense and what doesn’t. This will emancipate them and allow them to take charge of their own development.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Valspar Championship betting preview: Elite ballstrikers to thrive at Copperhead

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The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2024 Valspar Championship.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermudagrass greens overseeded with POA. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 16, 17 and 18 — also known as the “Snake Pit” — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.

The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. The field this week is solid and is a major improvement over last year’s field that felt the impact of players skipping due to a handful of “signature events” in a short span of time. 

Past Winners at Valspar Championship

  • 2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
  • 2022: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
  • 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
  • 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
  • 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
  • 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Copperhead

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can’t be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)

  1. Tony Finau (+.90)
  2. Nick Taylor (+.81)
  3. Justin Thomas (+.77)
  4. Greyson Sigg (+.69)
  5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+.67)

2. Good Drive %

The long hitters can be a bit limited here due to the tree-lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important, but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.

Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+91.3%) 
  2. Zach Johnson (+91.1%)
  3. Sam Ryder (+90.5%)
  4. Ryan Moore (+90.4%)
  5. Aaron Rai (+89.7%)

3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1.32)
  2. Keith Mitchell (+1.29)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.24)
  4. Cameron Young (+1.17) 
  5. Doug Ghim (+.95)

4. Bogey Avoidance

With the conditions likely to be difficult, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, oftentimes the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.

Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.

Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+9.0)
  2. Xander Schauffele (+9.3)
  3. Austin Cook (+9.7) 
  4. Chesson Hadley (+10.0)
  5. Greyson Sigg (+10.2)

5. Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions

Conditions will be tough this week at Copperhead. I am looking for golfers who can rise to the occasion if the course plays as difficult as it has in the past.

Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1,71) 
  2. Min Woo Lee (+1.39)
  3. Cameron Young (+1.27)
  4. Jordan Spieth (+1.08)
  5. Justin Suh (+.94)

6. Course History

That statistic will tell us which players have played well at Copperhead in the past.

Course History Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+3.75) 
  2. Sam Burns (+2.49)
  3. Davis Riley (+2.33)
  4. Matt NeSmith (+2.22)
  5. Jordan Spieth (+2.04)

The Valspar Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Good Drive % (15%), SG: BS (20%), Bogeys Avoided (13%), Course History (13%) Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions (12%).

  1. Xander Schauffele
  2. Doug Ghim
  3. Victor Perez
  4. Greyson Sigg
  5. Ryan Moore
  6. Tony Finau
  7. Justin Thomas
  8. Sam Ryder
  9. Sam Burns
  10. Lucas Glover

2024 Valspar Championship Picks

Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)

Justin Thomas will be disappointed with his finish at last week’s PLAYERS Championship, as the past champion missed the cut despite being in some decent form heading into the event. Despite the missed cut, JT hit the ball really well. In his two rounds, the two-time major champion led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach per round.

Thomas has been up and down this season. He’s missed the cut in two “signature events” but also has finishes of T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T6 at the Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am and T3 at the American Express. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in the field.

Thomas loves Copperhead. In his last three tries at the course, he’s finished T13, T3 and T10. Thomas would have loved to get a win at a big event early in the season, but avoidable mistakes and a balky putter have cost him dearly. I believe a trip to a course he loves in a field he should be able to capitalize on is the right recipe for JT to right the ship.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (FanDuel)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is playing spectacular golf in the 2024 season. He finished 2nd at the American Express, T20 at Pebble Beach and T24 at the Genesis Invitational before finishing T13 at last week’s PLAYERS Championship.

In his past 24 rounds, the South African ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 26th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. Bezuidenhout managed to work his way around TPC Sawgrass last week with minimal damage. He only made five bogeys in the entire week, which is a great sign heading into a difficult Copperhead this week.

Bezuidenhout is winless in his PGA Tour career, but certainly has the talent to win on Tour. His recent iron play tells me that this week could be a breakthrough for the 35-year-old who has eyes on the President’s Cup.

Doug Ghim +8000 (FanDuel)

Doug Ghim has finished in the top-16 of his past five starts. Most recently, Ghim finished T16 at The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field.

In his past 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 5th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. In terms of his fit for Copperhead, the 27-year-old ranks 12th in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions, making him a great fit for the course.

Ghim has yet to win on Tour, but at one point he was the top ranked Amateur golfer in the world and played in the 2017 Arnold Palmer Cup and 2017 Walker Cup. He then won the Ben Hogan award for the best male college golfer in 2018. He certainly has the talent, and there are signals aplenty that his talent in ready to take him to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour.

Sepp Straka +8000 (BetRivers)

Sepp Straka is a player who’s shown he has the type of game that can translate to a difficult Florida golf course. The former Presidents Cup participant won the 2022 Honda Classic in tough conditions and should thrive with a similar test at Copperhead.

It’s been a slow 2024 for Straka, but his performance last week at the PLAYERS Championship surely provides some optimism. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach as well as 1.88 strokes off the tee. The tee-to-green game Straka showed on a course with plenty of danger demonstrates that he can stay in control of his golf ball this week.

It’s possible that the strong performance last week was an outlier, but I’m willing to bet on a proven winner in a weaker field at a great number.

Victor Perez +12000 (FanDuel)

Victor Perez is no stranger to success in professional golf. The Frenchman has three DP World Tour wins including a Rolex Series event. He won the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, as well as the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which are some big events.

Perez earned his PGA Tour card this season and enters the week playing some fantastic golf. He finished in a tie for 16th in Florida at the Cognizant Classic and then tied for third in his most recent start at the Puerto Rico Open.

In his past 24 rounds in the field, Perez ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 1oth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Good Drive % and 15th in Bogey Avoidance.

Perez comes in as a perfect fit for Copperhead and offers serious value at triple-digit odds.

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