19th Hole
Did Tiger Woods screw up by hitting iron off the tee at the 72nd hole?
Tiger Woods, as we know, finished one stroke behind Paul Casey in his bid to return to the winner’s circle at the Valspar Championship.
Woods arrived at the 72nd hole needing birdie to tie Casey. Electing to avoid flirtation with fairway bunkers left and right, Woods hit a long iron 258 yards down the fairway, leaving himself a 185-yard approach shot to the back right pin. His approach shot ended up 38 feet, 11 inches, from the hole. Unsurprisingly considering the distance, he didn’t make the putt.
Hindsight is 20/20, of course, but some questioned Woods not taking on the bunkers with a 3-wood or driver, and thus allowing for the possibility of a much shorter approach shot he would have been statistically more likely to get close.
Scott Fawcett, founder of the Decade course management system, didn’t question Woods’ decision however. In fact, Fawcett took to Twitter to laud Woods’ decision. The responses to Fawcett’s tweet were both interesting and insightful, spearheaded by our own Rich Hunt.
You can find a portion of this excellent conversation below.
Tiger is the GOAT for a host of reasons, his course management is likely the top of the list though. How many Tour players could go to 18 *needing* birdie and NOT ABANDON HOW THEY PLAYED THE HOLE ALL WEEK? #GOATdiscipline pic.twitter.com/ZGNPWk6mDP
— Scott Fawcett (@scottfawcett) March 11, 2018
My problem is the strategy on 18 today. Had to have birdie, lays up 185 yds. 185 yds/fwy yields a Tour average prox 2 cup of 33.3 feet which has make % of ~6%. A 'good shot' from 185/fwy for Tour players is about 27.8 feet which has a make % of ~8%.
— Hunt Golf Analytics (@Richie3Jack) March 12, 2018
If he hits driver ~50 yards past his lay up shot (135 yds), a 'very good shot' would put him to about 16 feet which has a 20% make percentage.
— Hunt Golf Analytics (@Richie3Jack) March 12, 2018
Basically gave himself a 6% chance to make birdie by laying up. Had greater odds of finding the fairway with the driver than making birdie by laying up. Again, this is a different situation. He had to make birdie or he goes home unlike the 3 previous rounds.
— Hunt Golf Analytics (@Richie3Jack) March 12, 2018
Essentially, laying up is the right move over the long haul because the projected score is lower for Tiger if he lays up off the tee than if he hits driver. But, this wasn't a 'long haul' situation. He had to have birdie and laying up greatly hurt his odds in doing so.
— Hunt Golf Analytics (@Richie3Jack) March 12, 2018
If he had a 40% chance of hitting the fairway, that's greater than a 6% chance of making birdie by laying up. Like I said, over the long haul it's wise for him to lay-up on 18 cuz expected scores will be lower. But when you have to have a birdie, laying up is a bad choice here
— Hunt Golf Analytics (@Richie3Jack) March 12, 2018
This was a different situation. If I'm playing 18 in any other situation, the odds are to lay up because of the narrow fwy and the trees. But this situation was make birdie or lose. Having 185 yds out, even if you WELL above the Tour avg gives little odds of making birdie.
— Hunt Golf Analytics (@Richie3Jack) March 12, 2018
And as promising as Tiger looks…he's not the performer with the irons that he was in his prime years. I was actually surprised so many people thought he would win today given his track record of not winning events coming from behind.
— Hunt Golf Analytics (@Richie3Jack) March 12, 2018
I agree with this. I just don't think that in THIS particular situation it applies. Kinda like the basketball team that is down by 3, goes for the easy 2 pt layup with less than 5 seconds to go instead of shooting a 3. They may be a great team but it was poor strategy & they lost
— Hunt Golf Analytics (@Richie3Jack) March 12, 2018
Absolutely. It's a completely different scenario. He's down by 1, he has to make at least a birdie. Needs to play the shot that will give him the best chance of making birdie. If he had almost NO chance of hitting the fwy w/driver I can see. But that wasn't nearly the case.
— Hunt Golf Analytics (@Richie3Jack) March 12, 2018
Odds based on performance are based on past history. It's very unlikely he would hit a 185 yd shot to 3.3 feet while it's much more likely he would hit that shot closer to 33 feet. I don't understand people thinking it was impossible for him to find the fwy with the driver.
— Hunt Golf Analytics (@Richie3Jack) March 12, 2018
Sure. But if he hits it to 25 feet that's still a really good shot from that distance and odds are low. And this year Tiger has made ONE putt from outside 25 feet the entire season (1.85%)…which occurred on the 71st hole.
— Hunt Golf Analytics (@Richie3Jack) March 12, 2018
What do you think, GolfWRX members, do you agree with Woods’ approach off the tee at the final hole?
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19th Hole
Why Ludvig Aberg is my new favorite player – GolfWRXers discuss
In our forums, our members have been discussing one of the new sensations in the world of golf – Ludvig Aberg. The 24-year-old finished solo second at the Masters a couple of weeks ago, and gained many plaudits, including from several WRXers.
- RELATED: ‘There were a number of red flags’ – Ludvig Aberg reveals why he turned down multiple LIV offers
One member, RoyalMustang, took to the forums to explain why Aberg is now their favorite player, saying:
“I loved the way the Ludvig was out there, having a great time, not taking himself or the situation too seriously. Even after the double at 11, he was like “well, that’s golf!” Loose and relaxed: that’s the way to play. It’s obvious he loves what he’s doing, he loves the big moments, and he loves being a part of it all.
Arnold Palmer was viewed that way. Just like Brooks Robinson was forever viewed as not just a great baseball player, but a great human being and friend to Baltimore.”
And our members have been reacting and sharing their positive takes on the young Swede.
Here are a few posts from the thread, but make sure to check out the entire discussion and have your say at the link below.
- redfirebird08: “Ludvig has a great attitude, a great smile, and a great golf swing.”
- otto6457: “I’m very lucky to have talked with Ludde several times at the Rawls Course at Texas Tech. He’s a truly nice guy and very friendly. Always said hello when we passed each other in the club house and was always smiling. Watching him hit balls on the range was a joy. He has “that sound” and trajectory to die for. There were many times he was out on the range in 30+ mph winds just hitting the most beautiful shots that just seemed to ignore the wind. World class ball striker. And yes……..I am a fan boy.”
- konklifer: “I like him. In an era of endless waggles and laboring, his swing and pace of play are a joy to watch.
Entire Thread: “Why Ludvig Aberg is my new favorite player – GolfWRXers discuss”
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19th Hole
‘Absolutely crazy’ – Major champ lays into Patrick Cantlay over his decision on final hole of RBC Heritage
Over the past year or so, PGA Tour star Patrick Cantlay has taken a great deal of criticism for his pace of play.
Now, Cantlay is once again under fire for a questionable decision he made on Sunday at the RBC Heritage.
After the horn sounded to suspend play due to darkness, Cantlay, whose ball was in the fairway on the 18th hole, had a decision to make. With over 200 yards into the green and extreme winds working against the shot, conventional wisdom would be to wait until Monday morning to hit the shot.
On the other hand, if he could finish the hole, he may just want to get the event over with so he could get out of Hilton Head.
Curiously, Cantlay chose neither of those options. After hitting 3-wood into the green, and still coming up short, the former FedEx Cup champion chose to mark his ball and return to chip and putt on Monday morning.
Ian Woosnam, who was watching from home, took to X to give his thoughts on Cantlay’s decision-making.
Can’t believe my eyes watching Patrick Cantlay why on earth would you hit your second shot then mark your ball absolutely crazy, maybe says a lot ?
— Ian Woosnam (@IWoosnam) April 22, 2024
Cantlay would end up getting up and down for par when play resumed at 8:00 Monday morning.
Following his round, Cantlay explained his decision to wait to hit his third shot the next morning:
“I really did want to finish last night, so I felt like if I could get the ball up there maybe in an easier spot, maybe I would have finished, but as I got the ball up near the green, I realized it would be easier to finish this morning. That’s what I decided to do.”
GolfWRX has reached out to Patrick Cantlay’s management team for a response to Woosnam’s comments.
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- The wild reason why Mark Wahlberg was initially denied entry to an Australian golf club
- 2-time major champ announces shock retirement from the sport at age of 33
- Edoardo Molinari reveals the latest PGA Tour golfer to turn down ‘good offer’ from LIV Golf
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19th Hole
Vincenzi’s 2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans betting preview
The PGA TOUR heads to New Orleans to play the 2023 Zurich Classic of New Orleans. In a welcome change from the usual stroke play, the Zurich Classic is a team event. On Thursday and Saturday, the teams play best ball, and on Friday and Sunday the teams play alternate shot.
TPC Louisiana is a par 72 that measures 7,425 yards. The course features some short par 4s and plenty of water and bunkers, which makes for a lot of exciting risk/reward scenarios for competitors. Pete Dye designed the course in 2004 specifically for the Zurich Classic, although the event didn’t make its debut until 2007 because of Hurricane Katrina.
Coming off of the Masters and a signature event in consecutive weeks, the field this week is a step down, and understandably so. Many of the world’s top players will be using this time to rest after a busy stretch.
However, there are some interesting teams this season with some stars making surprise appearances in the team event. Some notable teams include Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry, Collin Morikawa and Kurt Kitayama, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala as well as a few Canadian teams, Nick Taylor and Adam Hadwin and Taylor Pendrith and Corey Conners.
Past Winners at TPC Louisiana
- 2023: Riley/Hardy (-30)
- 2022: Cantlay/Schauffele (-29)
- 2021: Leishman/Smith (-20)
- 2019: Palmer/Rahm (-26)
- 2018: Horschel/Piercy (-22)
- 2017: Blixt/Smith (-27)
2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans Picks
Tom Hoge/Maverick McNealy +2500 (DraftKings)
Tom Hoge is coming off of a solid T18 finish at the RBC Heritage and finished T13 at last year’s Zurich Classic alongside Harris English.
This season, Hoge is having one of his best years on Tour in terms of Strokes Gained: Approach. In his last 24 rounds, the only player to top him on the category is Scottie Scheffler. Hoge has been solid on Pete Dye designs, ranking 28th in the field over his past 36 rounds.
McNealy is also having a solid season. He’s finished T6 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and T9 at the PLAYERS Championship. He recently started working with world renowned swing coach, Butch Harmon, and its seemingly paid dividends in 2024.
Keith Mitchell/Joel Dahmen +4000 (DraftKings)
Keith Mitchell is having a fantastic season, finishing in the top-20 of five of his past seven starts on Tour. Most recently, Mitchell finished T14 at the Valero Texas Open and gained a whopping 6.0 strokes off the tee. He finished 6th at last year’s Zurich Classic.
Joel Dahmen is having a resurgent year and has been dialed in with his irons. He also has a T11 finish at the PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass which is another Pete Dye track. With Mitchell’s length and Dahmen’s ability to put it close with his short irons, the Mitchell/Dahmen combination will be dangerous this week.
Taylor Moore/Matt NeSmith +6500 (DraftKings)
Taylor Moore has quickly developed into one of the more consistent players on Tour. He’s finished in the top-20 in three of his past four starts, including a very impressive showing at The Masters, finishing T20. He’s also finished T4 at this event in consecutive seasons alongside Matt NeSmith.
NeSmith isn’t having a great 2024, but has seemed to elevate his game in this format. He finished T26 at Pete Dye’s TPC Sawgrass, which gives the 30-year-old something to build off of. NeSmith is also a great putter on Bermudagrass, which could help elevate Moore’s ball striking prowess.
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