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Opinion & Analysis

Fantasy Preview: 2018 WGC-Mexico Championship

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The first World Golf Championship of 2018 gets underway this week from just outside Mexico City, as Club de Golf Chapultepec welcomes an elite limited field. The course itself measures more than 7,300 yards, but because of its high altitude it plays far shorter. The heavily tree-lined course makes it imperative to be accurate off the tee this week, and the small undulating greens will mean whoever is to triumph will need to display a very polished short game.

There is a sense that the longer hitters still have a distinct advantage this week, as last year we saw the bombers on Tour have the luxury of taking iron off the tee on the majority of holes. It was Chapultepec’s debut on the PGA Tour, and World No. 1 Dustin Johnson held his nerve to post 14-under par and hold off Tommy Fleetwood to win by one stroke.

Selected Tournament Odds (via Bet365)

  • Dustin Johnson 6/1
  • Justin Thomas 8/1
  • Jon Rahm 12/1
  • Jordan Spieth 12/1
  • Tommy Fleetwood 18/1
  • Rickie Fowler 18/1
  • Justin Rose 20/1

With a limited field and only last year’s event to guide us in regard to course history, it makes it a challenge to identify the best value of the week…. but the cream often rises to the top in these events. World Golf Championships have been dominated lately by Dustin Johnson, who has won four of the last nine. From the other five, there has only been one winner who was ranked outside the Top-10 in the Official World Golf Rankings the week of the event: Justin Rose (13th) at the WGC-HSBC Champions in November.

There isn’t much that Jordan Spieth (12/1, DK Price $10,500) has yet to achieve in the world of golf, but a WGC is one. Spieth has had a slow beginning to 2018, but there was a huge improvement at the Genesis Open two weeks ago. Now, having regained his touch on the greens at that event, this may be the week that the Texan ends his winless streak. Spieth’s struggles with the flat stick at the opening few events of the year scuppered any chance he had at getting into contention. But at the Genesis Open, he had his best putting display since the Northern Trust back in August. Speaking after the Genesis, he sounded very bullish about the progress he had made.

“I just made some tremendous progress,” Spieth said. “I putted extremely well this week, which is awesome. I feel great about the state of my game going forward — feel like I’m in a great place at this time of the year as we’re starting to head into major season.”

With confidence on the greens, Spieth is always a dangerous prospect, and the rest of his game looks ready to get himself into the thick of things come Sunday. He ranks 11th in this field for Strokes Gained Approaching the Green and fourth for Strokes Gained Tee to Green over his last 24 rounds. With the smaller-than-usual greens in play this week, it’s going to be vital for players to scramble when they inevitably do miss a few more greens than usual. There is arguably nobody better in this regard than Spieth, who sits first in this field for Strokes Gained Around the Green over his last 24 rounds.

Spieth won last year at Pebble Beach, which is also a course that has some of the smallest greens on Tour, and the small greens here can only enhance his chances. He should also be able to lean on his third round here last year, where he shot a course-record 63. In my mind, Spieth has a far greater chance of bagging his first win of 2018 than his price of 12/1 suggests.

My second pick for the week also possesses a fine short game, although it deserted him last week. Rickie Fowler’s (18/1, DK Price $9,800) defense of the Honda Classic last week was disastrous. He failed to find any spark, which resulted in him having the weekend off. Despite this, I think the bookmakers have overreacted slightly and he is a little undervalued. After all, he played very well in Phoenix after missing the cut the week before at The Farmers.

Fowler finished T16 at this event last year, but there were many signs that this could be a course that is kind to Rickie in the coming years. With the altitude being such a big factor, it can often be difficult for players to gauge the distances on their approaches. That wasn’t an issue for Rickie last year, who adjusted excellently. Fowler was second only to Dustin Johnson in both Strokes Gained Approaching the Green and Proximity to the Hole.

On a course where missing the fairway carries a substantial penalty, it’s a good sign that Fowler is 18th on the PGA Tour for Hit Fairway Percentage, ahead of any of the men at the top of the market. While considering he is one of the most consistent putters on Tour, it should be no surprise that Fowler ranks third in this field for Strokes Gained Short Game. The Californian has four wins on the PGA Tour thus far, two of them coming after he had missed the cut the previous week. He is worth backing to do it once more at an attractive price.

My third pick for this week comes from deep in the market. Jason Dufner (80/1, DK Price $7,500) has been impressive to date in 2018, finishing in the Top-20 in three of his four starts. Surprisingly, the quality that has lead to his good form is his putting. Dufner has never been known for his prowess on the greens, yet this season he is 15th on the PGA Tour for Strokes Gained Putting.

Dufner played well here last year, where he finished T23. For an excellent ball striker, Chapultepec should be a good fit. The Ohio native ranks 14th in this field for Strokes Gained Off the Tee, and 11th in Strokes Gained Total over his last 12 rounds. At 80/1, he seems a tad undervalued. It’s worth taking a chance on adding him to some DraftKings lineups in the hopes he can continue his consistent run of good form.

Recommended Plays

  • Jordan Spieth 12/1, DK Price $10,500
  • Rickie Fowler 18/1, DK Price $9,800
  • Jason Dufner 80/1, DK Price $7,500
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Gianni is the Managing Editor at GolfWRX. He can be contacted at [email protected].

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans betting preview

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The PGA TOUR heads to New Orleans to play the 2023 Zurich Classic of New Orleans. In a welcome change from the usual stroke play, the Zurich Classic is a team event. On Thursday and Saturday, the teams play best ball, and on Friday and Sunday the teams play alternate shot.

TPC Louisiana is a par 72 that measures 7,425 yards. The course features some short par 4s and plenty of water and bunkers, which makes for a lot of exciting risk/reward scenarios for competitors. Pete Dye designed the course in 2004 specifically for the Zurich Classic, although the event didn’t make its debut until 2007 because of Hurricane Katrina.

Coming off of the Masters and a signature event in consecutive weeks, the field this week is a step down, and understandably so. Many of the world’s top players will be using this time to rest after a busy stretch.

However, there are some interesting teams this season with some stars making surprise appearances in the team event. Some notable teams include Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry, Collin Morikawa and Kurt Kitayama, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala as well as a few Canadian teams, Nick Taylor and Adam Hadwin and Taylor Pendrith and Corey Conners.

Past Winners at TPC Louisiana

  • 2023: Riley/Hardy (-30)
  • 2022: Cantlay/Schauffele (-29)
  • 2021: Leishman/Smith (-20)
  • 2019: Palmer/Rahm (-26)
  • 2018: Horschel/Piercy (-22)
  • 2017: Blixt/Smith (-27)

2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans Picks

Tom Hoge/Maverick McNealy +2500 (DraftKings)

Tom Hoge is coming off of a solid T18 finish at the RBC Heritage and finished T13 at last year’s Zurich Classic alongside Harris English.

This season, Hoge is having one of his best years on Tour in terms of Strokes Gained: Approach. In his last 24 rounds, the only player to top him on the category is Scottie Scheffler. Hoge has been solid on Pete Dye designs, ranking 28th in the field over his past 36 rounds.

McNealy is also having a solid season. He’s finished T6 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and T9 at the PLAYERS Championship. He recently started working with world renowned swing coach, Butch Harmon, and its seemingly paid dividends in 2024.

Keith Mitchell/Joel Dahmen +4000 (DraftKings)

Keith Mitchell is having a fantastic season, finishing in the top-20 of five of his past seven starts on Tour. Most recently, Mitchell finished T14 at the Valero Texas Open and gained a whopping 6.0 strokes off the tee. He finished 6th at last year’s Zurich Classic.

Joel Dahmen is having a resurgent year and has been dialed in with his irons. He also has a T11 finish at the PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass which is another Pete Dye track. With Mitchell’s length and Dahmen’s ability to put it close with his short irons, the Mitchell/Dahmen combination will be dangerous this week.

Taylor Moore/Matt NeSmith +6500 (DraftKings)

Taylor Moore has quickly developed into one of the more consistent players on Tour. He’s finished in the top-20 in three of his past four starts, including a very impressive showing at The Masters, finishing T20. He’s also finished T4 at this event in consecutive seasons alongside Matt NeSmith.

NeSmith isn’t having a great 2024, but has seemed to elevate his game in this format. He finished T26 at Pete Dye’s TPC Sawgrass, which gives the 30-year-old something to build off of. NeSmith is also a great putter on Bermudagrass, which could help elevate Moore’s ball striking prowess.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 LIV Adelaide betting preview: Cam Smith ready for big week down under

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After having four of the top twelve players on the leaderboard at The Masters, LIV Golf is set for their fifth event of the season: LIV Adelaide. 

For both LIV fans and golf fans in Australia, LIV Adelaide is one of the most anticipated events of the year. With 35,000 people expected to attend each day of the tournament, the Grange Golf Club will be crawling with fans who are passionate about the sport of golf. The 12th hole, better known as “the watering hole”, is sure to have the rowdiest of the fans cheering after a long day of drinking some Leishman Lager.  

The Grange Golf Club is a par-72 that measures 6,946 yards. The course features minimal resistance, as golfers went extremely low last season. In 2023, Talor Gooch shot consecutive rounds of 62 on Thursday and Friday, giving himself a gigantic cushion heading into championship Sunday. Things got tight for a while, but in the end, the Oklahoma State product was able to hold off The Crushers’ Anirban Lahiri for a three-shot victory. 

The Four Aces won the team competition with the Range Goats finishing second. 

*All Images Courtesy of LIV Golf*

Past Winners at LIV Adelaide

  • 2023: Talor Gooch (-19)

Stat Leaders Through LIV Miami

Green in Regulation

  1. Richard Bland
  2. Jon Rahm
  3. Paul Casey

Fairways Hit

  1. Abraham Ancer
  2. Graeme McDowell
  3. Henrik Stenson

Driving Distance

  1. Bryson DeChambeau
  2. Joaquin Niemann
  3. Dean Burmester

Putting

  1. Cameron Smith
  2. Louis Oosthuizen
  3. Matt Jones

2024 LIV Adelaide Picks

Cameron Smith +1400 (DraftKings)

When I pulled up the odds for LIV Adelaide, I was more than a little surprised to see multiple golfers listed ahead of Cameron Smith on the betting board. A few starts ago, Cam finished runner-up at LIV Hong Kong, which is a golf course that absolutely suits his eye. Augusta National in another course that Smith could roll out of bed and finish in the top-ten at, and he did so two weeks ago at The Masters, finishing T6.

At Augusta, he gained strokes on the field on approach, off the tee (slightly), and of course, around the green and putting. Smith able to get in the mix at a major championship despite coming into the week feeling under the weather tells me that his game is once again rounding into form.

The Grange Golf Club is another course that undoubtedly suits the Australian. Smith is obviously incredibly comfortable playing in front of the Aussie faithful and has won three Australian PGA Championship’s. The course is very short and will allow Smith to play conservative off the tee, mitigating his most glaring weakness. With birdies available all over the golf course, there’s a chance the event turns into a putting contest, and there’s no one on the planet I’d rather have in one of those than Cam Smith.

Louis Oosthuizen +2200 (DraftKings)

Louis Oosthuizen has simply been one of the best players on LIV in the 2024 seas0n. The South African has finished in the top-10 on the LIV leaderboard in three of his five starts, with his best coming in Jeddah, where he finished T2. Perhaps more impressively, Oosthuizen finished T7 at LIV Miami, which took place at Doral’s “Blue Monster”, an absolutely massive golf course. Given that Louis is on the shorter side in terms of distance off the tee, his ability to play well in Miami shows how dialed he is with the irons this season.

In addition to the LIV finishes, Oosthuizen won back-to-back starts on the DP World Tour in December at the Alfred Dunhill Championship and the Mauritus Open. He also finished runner-up at the end of February in the International Series Oman. The 41-year-old has been one of the most consistent performers of 2024, regardless of tour.

For the season, Louis ranks 4th on LIV in birdies made, T9 in fairways hit and first in putting. He ranks 32nd in driving distance, but that won’t be an issue at this short course. Last season, he finished T11 at the event, but was in decent position going into the final round but fell back after shooting 70 while the rest of the field went low. This season, Oosthuizen comes into the event in peak form, and the course should be a perfect fit for his smooth swing and hot putter this week.

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Opinion & Analysis

The Wedge Guy: What really makes a wedge work? Part 1

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Of all the clubs in our bags, wedges are almost always the simplest in construction and, therefore, the easiest to analyze what might make one work differently from another if you know what to look for.

Wedges are a lot less mysterious than drivers, of course, as the major brands are working with a lot of “pixie dust” inside these modern marvels. That’s carrying over more to irons now, with so many new models featuring internal multi-material technologies, and almost all of them having a “badge” or insert in the back to allow more complex graphics while hiding the actual distribution of mass.

But when it comes to wedges, most on the market today are still single pieces of molded steel, either cast or forged into that shape. So, if you look closely at where the mass is distributed, it’s pretty clear how that wedge is going to perform.

To start, because of their wider soles, the majority of the mass of almost any wedge is along the bottom third of the clubhead. So, the best wedge shots are always those hit between the 2nd and 5th grooves so that more mass is directly behind that impact. Elite tour professionals practice incessantly to learn to do that consistently, wearing out a spot about the size of a penny right there. If impact moves higher than that, the face is dramatically thinner, so smash factor is compromised significantly, which reduces the overall distance the ball will fly.

Every one of us, tour players included, knows that maddening shot that we feel a bit high on the face and it doesn’t go anywhere, it’s not your fault.

If your wedges show a wear pattern the size of a silver dollar, and centered above the 3rd or 4th groove, you are not getting anywhere near the same performance from shot to shot. Robot testing proves impact even two to three grooves higher in the face can cause distance loss of up to 35 to 55 feet with modern ‘tour design’ wedges.

In addition, as impact moves above the center of mass, the golf club principle of gear effect causes the ball to fly higher with less spin. Think of modern drivers for a minute. The “holy grail” of driving is high launch and low spin, and the driver engineers are pulling out all stops to get the mass as low in the clubhead as possible to optimize this combination.

Where is all the mass in your wedges? Low. So, disregarding the higher lofts, wedges “want” to launch the ball high with low spin – exactly the opposite of what good wedge play requires penetrating ball flight with high spin.

While almost all major brand wedges have begun putting a tiny bit more thickness in the top portion of the clubhead, conventional and modern ‘tour design’ wedges perform pretty much like they always have. Elite players learn to hit those crisp, spinny penetrating wedge shots by spending lots of practice time learning to consistently make contact low in the face.

So, what about grooves and face texture?

Grooves on any club can only do so much, and no one has any material advantage here. The USGA tightly defines what we manufacturers can do with grooves and face texture, and modern manufacturing techniques allow all of us to push those limits ever closer. And we all do. End of story.

Then there’s the topic of bounce and grinds, the most complex and confusing part of the wedge formula. Many top brands offer a complex array of sole configurations, all of them admittedly specialized to a particular kind of lie or turf conditions, and/or a particular divot pattern.

But if you don’t play the same turf all the time, and make the same size divot on every swing, how would you ever figure this out?

The only way is to take any wedge you are considering and play it a few rounds, hitting all the shots you face and observing the results. There’s simply no other way.

So, hopefully this will inspire a lively conversation in our comments section, and I’ll chime in to answer any questions you might have.

And next week, I’ll dive into the rest of the wedge formula. Yes, shafts, grips and specifications are essential, too.

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