Opinion & Analysis

Let’s Retire Old Man Par: A Modest Proposal

Published

6 years ago

Apr 21, 2018

In 1729, Jonathan Swift wrote a satirical essay entitled “A modest proposal,” in which he suggested that the Irish eat their own children. As might be expected, the piece drew a great deal of discussion and controversy. He was of course not serious, but simply attempting to make a point. As you will read this piece contains “A Modest Proposal” as well, but it is not intended to be satirical. I am for the record dead serious.

The golf industry is wringing its hands, trying to find a way to bring new players into the game, while at the same time keeping those that are in the game from leaving. They have initiated any number of programs designed for this purpose. How successful have they been? I would venture that they have barely moved the needle.

Barriers to the game

What we do know is that today there are three major barriers that confront the industry. They are first, the time required to play the game; second the costs associated with playing the game; and third the difficulty of the game.

There are among those adults that start the game, three distinct different groups:

Those who would like to start playing golf but for any number of reasons decided not to take up the game.
Those who once played more frequently but have reduced the number of rounds that they play.
Those who started to play the game but then after a short period decided to leave it.

Those who leave the game

Those in the golf industry, the hand-wringers, have developed any number of programs to bring new players to the game. I would ask the question, “What is the point, when almost an equal number of players that start playing the game each year, decide to give it up within a span of a few months.

Does it make any sense to continue to put water into a bucket when there is a hole in the bottom? Of course not, but that is effectively what is being done. The first question to be ask, why do these new players quit the playing after a short time? In my opinion, the number No. 1 reason is the method of scoring being used.

Were an exit poll to be conducted asking these people why they quit playing, I seriously doubt they would answer truthfully. Who would want to admit that they were discouraged by their inability to succeed at any endeavor? The two answers that would be given the most often would be 1) that golf is too expensive to play; or 2) that they simply didn’t have time. In this case both answers serve to preserve the individual’s dignity. And who could blame them?

The concept of par

Why did these individuals find the game difficult? The short answer is that while golf is a hard game to learn, there is a more compelling reason. I would venture, that the underlying reason they quit the game is that it ceased to be fun because of how they viewed their performance. And for one central reason… the concept of par. The idea that an amateur golfer, especially a beginner, should measure their level of success against an imaginary set of numbers that represents what an expert player would score on each hole is on the surface ridiculous.

You might imagine a beginning player scoring an eight on a par-four hole after hitting six good shots and then two putting for an eight. In the context of their ability, they should be ecstatic — but of course they are not (because as their playing partner reminds them) they were four-over par on that hole. The time has come for Old Man Par to retire. And retire permanently. He is killing the game.

Perceived failure

In another scenario, the beginning player scores sixty for nine holes, which is an excellent score given the short amount of time they might have spent playing the game. And yet their nine-hole score was 24-over par. How would that make you feel? Would you be encouraged or discouraged? You might imagine yourself back in school and regardless of the amount of work that you put into a given class you always receive an “F.” At some point, would you give up?

Why should every golfer be judged by the same standard when there is such inequality in their ability? The equivalent would be placing a high school freshman in a graduate-level college course, expecting that they could perform at the same level as the other graduate students. The disparity in knowledge, based on age and experience, is precisely the reason why there are different grades in school. The same disparity exists among golfers. In this case, the difference being the ability to perform on the golf course as opposed to the classroom.

What about the second group of players that now plays less than they did in the past? Could it be that they are no longer having fun playing the game?And then there is the third group, those that consider playing the game but abandon it for another sport. Could it be that they are intimidated by the scoring system, knowing that as a beginner par is an absolute impossibility?

Old man par

The legendary Bobby Jones was the first to coin, perhaps with the help of his friend O.B. Keillor, the phrase “Old Man Par.” Jones was, of course, the greatest amateur to have ever played the game. He won the Grand Slam in 1930, retiring then at the age of 28.

The time has come to retire “Old Man Par” and devise a new system for measuring a golfer’s progress in the game. I know that those in the USGA. would reject the concept immediately for fear of, and here is a $10 word used primarily by attorneys, “bifurcate” the game. What that word essentially means in this context in having more than one standard. The USGA is responsible for preserving the nature of the game, but at the same time it should be equally concerned with preserving the future of the game.

Personal par

What I would suggest is a system based on the principle of what might be termed “personal par.” This was essentially the system that was used to groom a young Tiger Woods. As a young child, he was not capable of reaching the longer holes in regulation, making par a virtual impossibility. Consequently, his coach wisely devised a system in which par was adjusted upward based on his ability at a given point in time. This served to keep the young child feeling good about his performance and subsequent progress.

This is the type of system that needs to be devised for the health of the game. The system would begin at a nine-hole level using a par of thirty-six as a basis. The actual numbers are not as important as the basic concept. There would be within the nine-hole and the eighteen-hole groups five different levels as follows with assigned par for each hole and eighteen holes roughly equal with the player’s ability.

As players improved, they would graduate from one level to another based on their total score. The handicap system would work in similar fashion as it does now with a single modification. The strokes give from one player to another would depend on the level in which they fall and the par assigned to that level.

The personal par handicap system would not be as exacting as it is presently used, but it would be sufficient to allow players to be reasonable competitive without any significant sacrifice. There would then be two scoring systems then, allowing players to choose which one they wanted to use. Or a recommendation might be given that until they reach a given scoring threshold that they use the personal par scoring system.

There would, of course, be the usual concern with something new being injected into the system, but the proposed change would be no greater than when the system of equitable scoring was introduced or when courses were first assigned a course rating number.

A few years ago, when life-long teacher and educator Dr. Gary Wiren was inducted into the Golf Teacher’s Hall of Fame, he wanted to pass along a single piece of advice to those teachers in the room. “Gentleman,” he started and then paused for emphasis. “We must find a way to make the game more fun for our students.”

I’m in full agreement with Dr. Wiren. The question is, “What is the best way to accomplish that goal?” I believe that that the first step in that direction is to change the scoring system so that golfers experience more satisfaction and accomplishment. That is what makes learning fun.

And so, I would have you consider “The Modest Proposal” that I have put forward. And rather than attempting to find reasons why a revised scoring system couldn’t never work, for the benefit of the game, look for the same number of reason why it could work. The time has come for Old Man Par, as we know him, to retire. He has served us well, but he has become an anarchism. He is as obsolete as the horse and buggy. Let’s hand him his gold watch and let him enjoy his golden years in peace.

And at the same time, let’s welcome the “new kid on the block” who will pave the way for the next generation of golfers pioneering a scoring system that promises to make the game more “fun.”

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Rod Lidenberg

As a teacher, Rod Lidenberg reached the pinnacle of his career when he was named to GOLF Magazine's "Top 100" Teachers in America. The PGA Master Professional and three-time Minnesota PGA "Teacher of the Year" has over his forty-five year career, worked with a variety of players from beginners to tour professionals. He especially enjoys training elite junior players, many who have gone on to earn scholarships at top colleges around the country, in addition to winning several national amateur championships. Lidenberg maintains an active schedule teaching at Bluff Creek Golf Course Chanhassen, Minnesota, in the summer and The Golf Zone, Chaska, Minnesota, in the winter months. As a player, he competed in two USGA Public Links Championships; the first in Dallas, Texas, and the second in Phoenix, Arizona, where he finished among the top 40. He also entertained thousands of fans playing in a series of three exhibition matches beginning in 1972, at his home course, Edgewood G.C. in Fargo, North Dakota, where he played consecutive years with Doug Sanders, Lee Trevino and Laura Baugh. As an author, he has a number of books in various stages of development, the first of which will be published this fall entitled "I Knew Patty Berg." In Fall 2017, he will be launching a new Phoenix-based instruction business that will feature first-time-ever TREATMENT OF THE YIPS.

64 Comments

LC

Dec 29, 2018 at 8:30 am

Much ado about nothing. When I took up the game I already knew from my friends that played that par or scratch was an unattainable standard that most/all recreational golfers aspire to – and understand they won’t likely achieve. While we are chasing it we play matches with each other using the handicap system which works surprisingly well. I used to play with a regular group where I was the weakest golfer, yet using handicaps our matches almost always went down to the wire. I was always happy with a bogey.

This article is a solution in search of a problem,

Reply Report comment
T

Apr 24, 2018 at 11:09 am

Should change the article name to “Let’s Install Snowflake Par”

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Jack

Apr 24, 2018 at 5:25 am

Yeah, it’s all perception and how golfers are educated, but also they need to play from closer tee boxes. There’s always the perception that the white tees are the men’s tees, and then you have golden for senior and red for womens. It should really be based on handicap. If you are over 30 handicap you should play from the reds. Over 20 should play from gold, then over 10 whites, and then you can play blues or whatever if you are single digit. It’s a guide only of course, but the perception that males will tee off the white tees doesn’t help new golfers when they are struggling to advance the ball.

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Dave r

Apr 23, 2018 at 8:32 pm

JUST GO AWAY AND FIND SOMETHING ELSE TO WRITE ABOUT.

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Robert Parsons

Apr 23, 2018 at 4:18 pm

BYW, when I started playing, my friend was already a good golfer. We never kept score.

We only wrote down birdies or better and number of lost balls. For my first few years, he said we need to focus on and improve on the number of balls I lost.

In our “scorekeeping”, only birdies or better counted. He would only win by at most a few strokes. Seemed much closer than it really was. Many times he wouldn’t manage a birdie and we’d tie! Tiebreakers came down to number of balls lost. Haha

And here I am many years later playing a round with the same golf ball. It’s rare I lose one, unless I attempt a big carry over water or whatever that most would play to a landing area.

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Dennis Ritter

Apr 23, 2018 at 2:41 pm

Let’s make it like everyone gets a trophy – just like real life.

Reply Report comment
- Robert Parsons
  
  Apr 23, 2018 at 4:08 pm
  
  That’s a great way to reward losers. Now there’s no desire to improve, we all win! Hugs all around…
  
  Reply Report comment
~j~

Apr 23, 2018 at 2:04 pm

I declared every hole a par 8 and came in 64/under yesterday! My ego is sooooaaring now!

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Brad

Apr 23, 2018 at 1:20 pm

Isn’t this just simply a different way to configure handicapping? And how does this system add more ‘fun’ to the game and ‘speed up’ the game? I applaud any thought given to growing this game that I love, but I don’t think this answers the issue, for there is still a “par” to each hole, it’s just adjusted. And the issue of how one attains a level higher with good play or is demoted to a level lower due to poor play is a sticky enough challenge (and maybe a dis-incentive to a mid-level player going through a slump) to render this whole thing un-workable.

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Kevin

Apr 23, 2018 at 12:59 pm

Ridiculous article. If you want to argue that the current handicap system isn’t accessible enough (complicated for beginners to understand; often adds even MORE to golf’s overall cost) I’d agree. But basically ignoring that the system exists is mind-boggling. In fact, it’s such a glaring issue that I have to wonder if the author, despite his qualifications, doesn’t really understand the current system—which supports my previous point.

In my opinion, the first step to “fix” the handicap system is make it free (always). That’s just step one—some simplification is also in order but much more complex to simplify (ha).

The primary reasons people quit are cost and time, with cost being the greater factor.

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Dave

Apr 23, 2018 at 12:20 pm

Stableford format has been around for a while and is a great equaliser. It is used to great effect for beginners and juniors alike.

http://www.wallaseygolfclub.com/club_history/dr_frank_stableford/

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Nigel

Apr 23, 2018 at 12:10 pm

It’s not “old man Par,” it’s “old man Bogey,” and he plays every hole one over par and you’re supposed to beat him!

If you’re trying to drive players away from the game letting a beginner finish a hole if it takes him 20 strokes will surely do it.

Without par we have no way to tell someone when it’s time to quit this hole and move on, you’ve failed, miserably.
Slow play is the #1 reason people aren’t playing golf. People need to understand and respect Equitable Stroke Control. I can’t stand being on a golf course for 6 hours unless I’m playing 2 rounds. I’m most likely completely addicted to golf but I won’t play until super twilight when I can play in ~2.5 hours.

Also, South Koreans are not helping the game. In their culture making other people wait for you elevates your status, basically they like to make you wait. It’s a fact. Many will deny it but a few will tell you it’s true. How many times have you caught a SK group and said, “Did they slow down now that we’re behind them?” The answer is Yes, they did. Golf courses in China, CHINA, have banned SK golfers completely because of their slow play. That’s how bad it is.

Finally, the complete lack of true course marshalling is the cause. If a marshall could not keep the course moving, in the old days of it being a paid position, he’d be fired. That was his job. Now the marshall is a volunteer who usually makes thing worse by chatting with people or sleeping in the shade of a tree. They’re either afraid to do their job or they simply don’t know how.

How long would the line be if a course could guarantee a 3 hour round? Huge, right? I heard of a course charging by the hour …

Reply Report comment
- Ron
  
  Apr 23, 2018 at 12:34 pm
  
  I agreed with your point that slow play is one of the reasons people stop playing. But once you said that China banned South Koreans from golfing, you lost all credibility.
  
  Reply Report comment
- Aesop
  
  Apr 23, 2018 at 2:07 pm
  
  “In their culture making other people wait for you elevates your status, basically they like to make you wait. It’s a fact.”
  
  What?? What the heck are you talking about? Get your baloney out of here.
  
  Reply Report comment
Ron

Apr 23, 2018 at 11:49 am

I think they should make the hole twice as big (8 inches). And at the end of every round you should get a trophy….and a hug.

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Alistair Yates

Apr 23, 2018 at 11:43 am

Come to Europe. We have a system called stableford. It works.

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Jeff Martin

Apr 23, 2018 at 11:22 am

Just play the hole shorter. Think junior golf. 7 year olds at US Kids Golf events play around 1700 yards for 9 holes. Par-5’s are around 225-250. Par-4’s are around 150-200. Par-3’s are around 75-125. Just go out to the fairway and tee it up.

This method is far, far, far simpler than anything else and builds confidence. Also can help with slow play issues.

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Dave Tutelman

Apr 23, 2018 at 11:15 am

I think I understand why a golfing buddy quits the game. I know I understand why I quit the game (and I have, twice). Par was never a factor! Never! Not even vaguely!

The big three you cite at the beginning of the article are probably the big three worth talking about. I see people who make money from golf trying to downplay the notion that golf is too expensive. Sorry, you have to learn to live with it. It’s there and it’s real.

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Nick

Apr 23, 2018 at 11:08 am

As a high school golf coach of girls, I give the same concept to my beginning players, Tell them not to focus on par, but bogey as their par . over 9 holes they are coming in as a 45. I think the concept of the article is that for beginners without any experience or a mind set of what is a handicap or setting your own score, they go with what is printed on a scorecard and that is what discourages the new golfer. there are a lot more recreational golfers than those of us have a serious interest in it.

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Kevin McGarrahan

Apr 23, 2018 at 11:05 am

Try this on for size. A couple of decades ago, several of us used a technique from measuring driving accuracy to speed up our games and improve the fun. If your ball is not in the fairway, pick it up, count your steps to the center of the fairway, and then walk back toward the tee that number of steps. Drop your ball at that point and hit your next shot with a one-stroke penalty.

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- Scott
  
  Apr 24, 2018 at 9:28 am
  
  Huh? How is taking a bunch of penalty shots fun and how is chasing balls around then walking back 30 yards quicker? That sounds like it would add about an hour of time. Your game may be interesting for you and your friends, but keep that crazy to yourself.
  
  Reply Report comment
Brian Rome

Apr 23, 2018 at 10:56 am

You have wasted my time with your proposal because it already exists: the handicap system was established by the St. Andrews Golf Club well over a hundred years ago.

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- Ron
  
  Apr 23, 2018 at 11:51 am
  
  This
  
  Reply Report comment
Randy Wall

Apr 23, 2018 at 10:51 am

I think the author has a point, but being a 32 HCP, instead of trying to reach par, I look at how I did on a Net basis. If I score a 6 on the hardest par 5 on the course, I tell myself, I shot a net birdie, pat myself on the back and move on.

I don’t think we need a new system, but a different emphasis. I started in 2012, and even though I’m in my 50’s, I am getting better.

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Joe

Apr 23, 2018 at 9:25 am

How does someone take 6 good shots to reach a par 4?

I’m a short hitter. 200-230. Two good shots and I’m almost there. 6? They’re hitting it 60 yards at a time??

Reply Report comment
- Larry Sheffer
  
  Apr 23, 2018 at 10:43 am
  
  200-230 is not a short hitter. I’m sure there are stats out there to show you are in the upper echelon on the distance scale.
  
  Reply Report comment
Top Amateur

Apr 23, 2018 at 8:19 am

What utter nonsense!

Just ignore par and play for enjoyment until you reach a standard that pars are a goal

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joe

Apr 23, 2018 at 7:50 am

Ridiculous proposals and concept. Golf, like life, is hard. Toughen up. Some will love golf and play a lot, most will like it and play a few times a year, some will despise this crazy sport and never play again. Is what it is.

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Duncan Marc

Apr 22, 2018 at 11:19 am

Judge Smails: How do you measure yourself against other men

Ty Webb: By height.

Reply Report comment
- ski_co
  
  Apr 23, 2018 at 1:27 pm
  
  I knew I would find this as a response but it is:
  
  “How do you measure yourself with other golfers?”
  
  Reply Report comment
HappyDuffer

Apr 22, 2018 at 10:40 am

I have some great news for you! Personal par already exists.. it’s called the current handicap system. Just another proposal to fix something that isn’t broken.

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Kurt

Apr 22, 2018 at 8:32 am

What a joke. !!!????????????????????????????????????

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nyguy

Apr 22, 2018 at 8:18 am

why not just have everyone win a trophy next…. Mediocre is was people strive for now, and it’s boring.

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BettiBoop

Apr 22, 2018 at 7:55 am

Love the idea. I’d be all for it.

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Greg V

Apr 22, 2018 at 7:44 am

Here is another way to get around the issue of par – don’t bother keeping score. Just enjoy hitting the ball and trying to get it into the hole.

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Steve Jesus

Apr 22, 2018 at 7:32 am

The best and easiest way to improve the experience is to allow tee’ing it up in the fairway. The hardest part of the game for a beginner is hitting the ball down, especially for women and older people.this would speed up the game and make it more fun to improve. Peter Kostis advocated this in an article a few years ago.

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- Greg V
  
  Apr 22, 2018 at 7:42 am
  
  excellent idea.
  
  Reply Report comment
larrybud

Apr 22, 2018 at 6:54 am

Another solution to a problem which doesn’t exist. Look, I get it, people in the golf business have a job to increase sales. But the game isn’t broken, stop trying to change it.

People don’t play golf because it’s too slow for much of the tide pod eating society, and can be fairly expensive (only good thing about Michigan are our cheap rates).

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DJ

Apr 22, 2018 at 3:58 am

Why are par 3s always thought of as easy. Requires good tee shot and if that goes bad a good short game.

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- Duncan Marc
  
  Apr 22, 2018 at 11:22 am
  
  I think the pga tour average on par 3’s is slightly over par…..LOL
  
  Reply Report comment
TJ

Apr 22, 2018 at 1:34 am

Golf is hard which is one of the reasons golfers love it. Play the right tees, establish an handicap, practice, and spend your lifetime playing the best game ever invented.

Reply Report comment
- Larry Sheffer
  
  Apr 23, 2018 at 10:40 am
  
  Play the right tees and have more shorter tee boxes. Quit calling the reds the women’s tee. Using that or a shorter tee will lower the scoring, increase the speed of play and make the sport more enjoyable for everyone on the course.
  
  Reply Report comment
Hawkeye77

Apr 22, 2018 at 12:19 am

Par is intimidating, scary.

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Mark

Apr 21, 2018 at 10:18 pm

Not a bad idea especially for kids and those just getting into the game, but I think that the main thing that keeps golf from growing is the cost, every year courses get more and more expensive, though you get nothing more for the increases.
Also clubs have once again sky rocketed in price and again for the average player the newer clubs do nothing to improve their game.

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AP

Apr 21, 2018 at 10:11 pm

I just duffed a drive, hit a decent approach, and 4-putted for my “par”…….

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JR

Apr 21, 2018 at 8:02 pm

I think what people are touching on is players need to be flexible when first starting out. If you try to play by the official rules as a beginner, you’re just going to get frustrated and quit. I’ve been playing for a year and my personal rules are if I lose a ball, I place one on the fairway about where I think it went out (stroke and distance on a muni course is a non starter), if I can’t hit the put in two I pick up and if I can’t get off the tee in two attempts I drop next to my buddy or far back on the fairway if playing alone. These rules help keep my pace of play up & does wonders for my enjoyment. I don’t play tournaments & I’m not going pro, so it’s all good. I keep a rough score just to track my progress. Golfs ruling bodies need to tell people it’s ok to make the game fun for you.

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- Ron
  
  Apr 23, 2018 at 11:55 am
  
  Agree with this but I don’t know anyone who DOESN’T do this. I don’t think we need the ruling bodies to come out and tell you to play by your own rules as a beginner. It just naturally happens. This whole concept is truly a non-issue IMO
  
  Reply Report comment
  - DS
    
    Apr 23, 2018 at 3:46 pm
    
    I must know a lot more people than you do. In 1 foursome I have the guy who doesn’t allow gimmes, the other who will shoot 100 but won’t hit his ball in the rough without a witness and who must say ‘lifting to identify!’ in a clear voice prior to doing so, and the other guy who insists on walking back to the tee to retee for a lost ball (white stakes, not red). These are guys who feel ‘the rules are there for a reason!’ and there are many out there.
    
    So you pick up after 2 putts on greens like the guy says he does? You drop your ball by a buddy after hitting 2 poor tee shots? I putt out, and I sometimes do drop near a buddy but usually would just pick up and steam.
    
    Reply Report comment
GHIN anyone?

Apr 21, 2018 at 7:50 pm

If only there was a system in place that gives you strokes on every hole based on your past ability. Oh wait there is. Your concept of personal par is no different than the handicap index. You set personal par of 5 on a par 3? You more than likely are getting 2 strokes per GHIN anyways. I would love to see your idea put into place and watch the amount of golfers leave in droves. People aren’t playing because it takes too damn long and golf courses are greedy and raise their prices year after year for little return on value

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The dude

Apr 21, 2018 at 6:59 pm

Everyone here has comments that are too long…..get to the point …

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Sean Foster-Nolan

Apr 21, 2018 at 6:58 pm

When I first started playing the game, I made my own personal par. For example, some par 3’s were par 4’s, some par 4’s were par 5’s, and some par 5’s were par 6’s. I would use a sharpie to change the pars on the holes on the scorecard. I found it to be a useful exercise.

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Andrew levy

Apr 21, 2018 at 6:47 pm

I do not disagree with argument. I disagree with the way you put out the levels.

First of all do the levels by handicap so it is understandable.
Secondly, a 5 on par 3 is fine. In fact I don’t know 98% of people would love to shoot under 100. 18 5s is 90. My wife started the game last year as a 24 and was frustrated by par. So I told her to try and make a 5 on every hole. She happened to be long enough where par 5s were not par 6s or 7s. It gave her a starting point.
Thirdly, that was a long way to go for something as simple as we should focus on the number you shoot not if you are over or under.

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J Zilla

Apr 21, 2018 at 6:43 pm

Jesus the idea of par has to be so far down the list of reasons why people aren’t taking up the game.

Obviously the main reasons in no particular order are:

Cost of entry. Clubs, lessons, greens fees are expensive. Prohibitively for many people.

It can take forever to play a round on a weekend at a muni. Courses really to need to speed up pace of play, encourage 9 hole rounds and not try to cram so many tee times in.

And yes golf is hard. Unless you’re a complete natural, it takes hundreds of hours on the range just to get the ball in the air with some level of consistency.

No one’s not taking up the game because they’re 25 over. They’re not taking it up, because there so many cheaper, faster and easier options.

Golf is fun when you’re able to make solid contact with some level of proficiency while you’re outdoors on a warm sunny day. Unless you’re playing a tournament or on tour, par is mostly irrelevant to the recreational aspect of golf.

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Seasider

Apr 21, 2018 at 4:47 pm

Terrible idea – golf is great because it’s hard. Scoring par or better feels good because it’s hard. Getting a personal par would just feel like cheating/bowling with the buffers up.

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Harry Goss

Apr 21, 2018 at 4:05 pm

Golf has survived hundreds of years because it was difficult and aspirational.

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- Mower
  
  Apr 21, 2018 at 5:01 pm
  
  Hear hear!
  
  Reply Report comment
Henkedejk

Apr 21, 2018 at 3:19 pm

Asking because im not sure, but dont you use the Stableford system in the US? This system in effect does ehat the article prescribes: Say you have an extra 39 strokes on a course, you the play to extra two strokes on all holes and have an additional stroke (so 3 extra strokes) on the 3 hardest rated holes on the course. If you make your “par”, ie 6 on a par 4 you get two points. A 7 on the hole would get you 1 point, whereas a real par (4) would get you 4 point. Note that you can only loose your two points so a disaster, ie a 12 on the hole, will only cost you two points that can be won back later. Objective is to play to or better than 36 stableford points. Play better and your handicap reduces (from 2020 onwards Europe and rest of world will change to the US system though).

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Garb

Apr 21, 2018 at 2:24 pm

Lets bring the hoop down to 6 feet in basketball. Lets make the NFL play in 5-minute quarters, at half the size of the field. Lets get rid of helmets and pad in ice hockey and make the puck larger. Lets have the MLB hit with aluminum bats and use a rubber ball.
That’s how ridiculous it is to suggest this at all. It won’t be golf.

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e

Apr 21, 2018 at 2:04 pm

Isn’t this just a more complicated version of the handicapping system stratified into five arbitrary buckets? What does this solve that couldn’t be solved by saying something like “a 36 handicapper should expect to shoot 108”?

Reply Report comment
- Kevin
  
  Apr 21, 2018 at 5:44 pm
  
  This exactly what I came to comment, if you’re a 36 handicap, you effectively get two strokes per hole to “subtract” from your actual score.
  
  Golf is expensive because OEM’s are happy with their profit margins, why should we care if they want more people spending their money on clubs. It’s pretty much been proven that if player A and player B want to start golfing and they each can spend $2000, if player A buys the newest technology for clubs, and player B buys used clubs and spends the rest on lessons that player B will have more fun.
  
  Just put a scoring expectation for groupings of handicaps on the score card and you will have exactly what is described in this article.
  
  Reply Report comment
Galted

Apr 21, 2018 at 1:48 pm

Agreed, the culture of masochism must go. Gross score is a useless, albeit purist scoring method. My suggested changes are quite simple. 1- No matter where your shot ends up, you have option to play next shot from fairway with a one stroke penalty. 2- The number of shots, incl penalties, to reach green is capped at hole’s par and number of putts are capped at 2, with designated green area for those that reached fairway cap. This would not require bifurcation and would change emphasis to how many good holes you can still play. This would also speed up play.

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- Ron
  
  Apr 23, 2018 at 11:57 am
  
  Putts capped at 2? You’re joking, right?
  
  Reply Report comment
Woody

Apr 21, 2018 at 1:47 pm

“I know that those in the USGA. would reject the concept immediately for fear of, and here is a $10 word used primarily by attorneys, “bifurcate” the game. What that word essentially means in this context in having more than one standard. The USGA is responsible for preserving the nature of the game”.

Here’s the problem with the USGA, they could care less about improving the game for us peasants. If they cared about the integrity of the game and “one standard” the rule book would be half the size. Rules officials wouldn’t exist and spectators wouldn’t be able to call penalties on professional players let alone instant replay showing a Lexi Thompson touching a grain of sand using HD zoom. It’s ridiculous because we as non professionals cannot play the same game as the professionals. They “improved” the rule book last year by changing three rules. What a freaking joke..the USGA is litterally running people off from the game. If the USGA made the rule book a little more simple they’d prolly retain 25% of those who leave.

Reply Report comment
ogo

Apr 21, 2018 at 1:41 pm

You can better manage the golf course if you have a personal par…. on the fairways and on the greens.
Par on the greens is obviously 36. If you play below that you are very good or you are chipping a lot off the fringe which distorts personal par on the greens.
My personal par on the fairways from tee to green depends on the length of each hole. Generally, long par 3s are par 4… and long par 4s are par 5… and I play them accordingly. However par 5s are always par 5 unless there are obstacles that force you to lay up.
Attempting to play official par when you can’t control all your club is a fool’s game…. and you must play within yourself.. your abilities.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 RBC Heritage betting preview: Patrick Cantlay ready to get back inside winner’s circle

Published

3 days ago

Apr 15, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

Just a two-hour drive from Augusta National, the PGA TOUR heads to Harbour Town Golf Links in Hilton Head Island, S.C. Hilton Head Island is a golfer’s paradise and Harbour Town is one of the most beautiful and scenic courses on the PGA TOUR.

Harbour Town Golf Links is a par-71 that measures 7,121 yards and features Bermuda grass greens. A Pete Dye design, the course is heavily tree lined and features small greens and many dog legs, protecting it from “bomb-and-gauge” type golfers.

The field is loaded this week with 69 golfers with no cut. Last year was quite possibly the best field in RBC Heritage history and the event this week is yet another designated event, meaning there is a $20 million prize pool.

Most of the big names on the PGA Tour will be in attendance this week with the exceptions of Hideki Matsuyama and Viktor Hovland. Additionally, Webb Simpson, Shane Lowry, Gary Woodland and Kevin Kisner have been granted sponsors exemptions.

Past Winners at Harbour Town

2023: Matt Fitzpatrick (-17)
2022: Jordan Spieth (-13)
2021: Stewart Cink (-19)
2020: Webb Simpson (-22)
2019: CT Pan (-12)
2018: Sotoshi Kodaira (-12)
2017: Wesley Bryan (-13)
2016: Branden Grace (-9)
2015: Jim Furyk (-18)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value).

Key Stats For Harbour Town

Let’s take a look at key metrics for Harbour Town Golf Links to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their past 24 rounds.

Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach is exceedingly important this week. The greens at Harbour Town are about half the size of PGA TOUR average and feature the second-smallest greens on the tour. Typical of a Pete Dye design, golfers will pay the price for missed greens.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

Scottie Scheffler (+1.27)
Tom Hoge (+1.27)
Corey Conners (+1.16)
Austin Eckroat (+0.95)
Cameron Young (+0.93)

Good Drive %

The fairways at Harbour Town are tree lined and feature many dog legs. Bombers tend to struggle at the course because it forces layups and doesn’t allow long drivers to overpower it. Accuracy is far more important than power.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

Brice Garnett (88.8%)
Shane Lowry (+87.2%)
Akshay Bhatia (+86.0%)
Si Woo Kim (+85.8%)
Sepp Straka (+85.1%)

Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye Designs

Pete Dye specialists tend to play very well at Harbour Town. Si Woo Kim, Matt Kuchar, Jim Furyk and Webb Simpson are all Pete Dye specialists who have had great success here. It is likely we see some more specialists near the top of the leaderboard this week.

SG: TOT Pete Dye per round over past 36 rounds:

Xander Schauffele (+2.27)
Scottie Scheffler (+2.24)
Ludvig Aberg (+2.11)
Brian Harman (+1.89)
Sungjae Im (+1.58)

4. Strokes Gained: Short Game (Bermuda)

Strokes Gained: Short Game factors in both around the green and putting. With many green-side bunkers and tricky green complexes, both statistics will be important. Past winners — such as Jim Furyk, Wes Bryan and Webb Simpson — highlight how crucial the short game skill set is around Harbour Town.

SG: SG Over Past 24 Rounds

Jordan Spieth (+1.11)
Taylor Moore (+1.02)
Wyndham Clark (+0.98)
Mackenzie Hughes (+0.86)
Andrew Putnam (+0.83)

5. Greens in Regulation %

The recipe for success at Harbour Town Golf Links is hitting fairways and greens. Missing either will prove to be consequential — golfers must be in total control of the ball to win.

Greens in Regulation % over past 24 rounds:

Brice Garnett (+75.0%)
Scottie Scheffler (+69.9%)
Corey Conners (+69.0%)
Shane Lowry (+68.3%)
Patrick Rodgers (+67.6%)

6. Course History

Harbour Town is a course where players who have strong past results at the course always tend to pop up.

Course History over past 24 rounds:

Patrick Cantlay (+2.34)
Cam Davis (+2.05)
J.T. Poston (+1.69)
Justin Rose (+1.68)
Tommy Fleetwood (+1.59)

The RBC Heritage Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (24%), Good Drives (20%), SG: SG (14%), SG: Pete Dye (14%), GIR (14%), and Course History (14%)

Shane Lowry
Russell Henley
Scottie Scheffler
Xander Schauffele
Corey Conners
Wyndham Clark
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
Matt Fitzpatrick
Cameron Young
Ludvig Aberg

2024 RBC Heritage Picks

Patrick Cantlay +2000 (FanDuel)

With the exception of Scottie Scheffler, the PGA Tour has yet to have any of their star players show peak form during the 2024 season. Last week, Patrick Cantlay, who I believe is a top-5 players on the PGA Tour, took one step closer to regaining the form that’s helped him win eight events on Tour since 2017.

Cantlay limped into the Masters in poor form, but figured it out at Augusta National, finishing in a tie for 20th and ranking 17th for the week in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. The former FedEx Cup champion will now head to one of his favorite golf courses in Harbour Town, where he’s had immaculate results over the years. In his six trips to the course, he’s only finished worse than 7th one time. The other finishes include three third places (2017, 2019, 2023) and one runner-up finish (2022). In his past 36 rounds at Harbour Town, Cantlay ranks 1st in Strokes Gained: Total per round at the course by a wide margin (+2.36).

Cantlay is winless since the 2022 BMW Championship, which is far too long for a player of his caliber. With signs pointing to the 32-year-old returning to form, a “signature event” at Harbour Town is just what he needs to get back on the winning track.

Tommy Fleetwood +3000 (FanDuel)

I truly believe Tommy Fleetwood will figure out a way to win on American soil in 2024. It’s certainly been a bugaboo for him throughout his career, but he is simply too talented to go another season without winning a PGA Tour event.

At last week’s Masters Tournament, Fleetwood made a Sunday charge and ended up finishing T3 in the event, which was his best ever finish at The Masters. For the week, the Englishman ranked 8th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, 10th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking and 16th in Strokes Gained: Putting.

Harbour Town is a perfect layout for Fleetwood, and he’s had relative success at this Pete Dye design in the past. In his four trips to the course, he’s finished inside of the top 25 three times, with his best finish, T10, coming in 2022. The course is pretty short and can’t be overpowered, which gives an advantage to more accurate players such as Fleetwood. Tommy ranks 8th in the field in Good Drive % and should be able to plot his way along this golf course.

The win is coming for Tommy lad. I believe there’s a chance this treasure of a golf course may be the perfect one for him to finally break through on Tour.

Cameron Young +3300 (FanDuel)

Cameron Young had a solid Masters Tournament last week, which is exactly what I’m looking for in players who I anticipate playing well this week at the RBC Heritage. He finished in a tie for 9th, but never felt the pressure of contending in the event. For the week, Young ranked 6th in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking.

Despite being one of the longest players off the tee on the PGA Tour, Young has actually played some really good golf on shorter tracks. He finished T3 at Harbour Town in 2023 and ranks 20th in the field in Good Drive% and 16th in Greens in Regulation in his past 24 rounds. He also has strong finishes at other shorter courses that can take driver out of a players hand such as Copperhead and PGA National.

Young is simply one of the best players on the PGA Tour in 2024, and I strongly believe has what it takes to win a PGA Tour event in the very near future.

Corey Conners +5500 (FanDuel)

Corey Conners has had a disappointing year thus far on the PGA Tour, but absolutely loves Harbour Town.

At last week’s Masters Tournament, the Canadian finished T30 but ranked 20th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach. In his past 24 rounds, Conners ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, 3rd in Greens in Regulation % and 24th in Good Drive %.

In Conners’ last four trips to Harbour Town, his worst finish was T31, last season. He finished T4 in 2021, T12 in 2022 and ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Total at the course over his past 36 rounds.

Conners hasn’t been contending, but his recent finishes have been encouraging as he has finished in the top-25 in each of his past three starts prior to The Masters, including an impressive T13 at The PLAYERS. His recent improvement in ball striking as well as his suitability for Harbour Town makes Conners a high upside bet this week.

Shane Lowry (+7500) (FanDuel)

When these odds were posted after Lowry was announced in the field, I have to admit I was pretty stunned. Despite not offering much win equity on the PGA Tour over the last handful of years, Shane Lowry is still a top caliber player who has the ability to rise to the top of a signature event.

Lowry struggled to score at The Masters last week, but he actually hit the ball really well. The Irishman ranked 1st for Strokes Gained: Approach on the week and 7th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. As usual, it was the putter that let him down, as he ranked 60th in the field in Strokes Gained: Putting.

Harbour Town is most definitely one of Lowry’s favorite courses on the PGA Tour. In his six starts there, he’s finished in the top 10 three times, including third twice. Lowry is sensational at Pete Dye designs and ranks 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in his past 36 rounds on Dye tracks.

Lowry is perfect for Harbour Town. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 5th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 2nd in Good Drive% and 5th in Green in Regulation %. If he figures it out on the greens, Shane could have his first win in America since 2015.

Lucas Glover +12000 (FanDuel)

This is one of my weekly “bet the number” plays as I strongly believe the odds are just too long for a player of Glover’s caliber. The odds have been too long on Glover for a few weeks now, but this is the first event that I can get behind the veteran being able to actually contend at.

Glover is quietly playing good golf and returning to the form he had after the understandable regression after his two massive victories at the end of 2023. He finished T20 at The Masters, which was his best ever finish at Augusta National. For the week, Lucas ranked 18th for Strokes Gained: Approach and 20th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking.

Over his past 24 rounds, Glover ranks 9th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 13th in Good Drive %. Harbour Town is a short course that the 44-year-old will be able to keep up with the top players on Tour off the tee. He’s played the course more than 20 times, with mixed results. His best finishes at Harbour Town include a T7 in 2008, but recently has a finish of T21 in 2020.

Glover has proven he can contend with the stars of the Tour on any given week, and this number is flat out disrespectful.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi: The 6 biggest takeaways from the 2024 Masters

Published

3 days ago

Apr 15, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

The 2024 Masters offered up plenty of excitement throughout the week with Scottie Scheffler delivering when it mattered to live up to his pre-tournament favorite tag. With the year’s opening major now in the books, here are my six biggest takeaways from the 2024 Masters.

Scheffler In a League of His Own

In the most impressive way possible, Scottie Scheffler won the Masters without having his absolute best stuff. For the week, Scottie ranked 19th in Strokes Gained: Approach, which is a category the number player in the world typically dusts the rest of the field in. After a strong approach day on Thursday, the 27-year-old lost strokes to the field on approach on Friday and Saturday, before gaining on Sunday. The iron performance was more than solid, but it was an all-around game that helped Scheffler get it done around Augusta National.

For a year or more, the narrative around Scheffler has been, “With his ball striking, if he can just putt to field average, he’ll be unbeatable.” At Augusta, his ball striking came back down to earth, but his touch around the greens and ability to manage the golf course demonstrated why he is the best player on the planet right now. For the week, Scheffler ranked 1st in the field in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and 24th in Strokes Gained: Putting.

For the time being, there is a major gap between Scottie Scheffler and the second-best player in the world, whoever that may be.

The Future is Now

Ludvig Aberg went into his first back-nine at the Masters with a legitimate shot to win the tournament. When he teed it up on the treacherous 11th hole, he was one behind Scottie Scheffler, who had just stuck one to a few feet on the 9th. By the time he approached his tee shot, which was perfectly striped down the left side of the fairway, he was two behind. Unfortunately, the 24-year-old got too aggressive with his approach at the 11th and found the water, making double bogey. Ludvig rebounded nicely and finished the event in solo second place.

With the Masters now in the rearview, it’s never been more evident that Ludvig Aberg is no longer an “up-and-comer” — he has arrived. The Swede has been an integral part of a winning European Ryder Cup team and has now contended at Augusta National. With a calm demeanor, a picture-perfect swing, and a build and stature that appears as if it was built in a lab, Ludvig Aberg is already amongst the world’s best. I’d be extremely surprised if he wasn’t in the mix at next month’s PGA Championship at Valhalla.

Nostalgia Wins

I try to avoid as many cliches as possible, but there’s something about the Masters that brings out the sentimentality in me. Tiger Woods strategically making his way around Augusta National without all of the physical tools that made him arguably the most dominant athlete in the history of sports will always be riveting, regardless of what score he shoots. Woods made it interesting until a tough stretch of holes on Saturday, but he ultimately wore down, shooting 16 over for the week in difficult conditions. It’s remarkable that the 15-time major champion was able to put together a few solid rounds of golf despite barely playing any competitive golf in 2024. As long as Woods tees it up at Augusta, we will all continue to be mesmerized by it.

Verne Lundquist’s 40th and final Masters Tournament was also a must-watch aspect of the event. The iconic voice of Lundquist and his calls throughout the years still give me chills each time I hear them. Verne is an icon of the game and will be missed in future renditions of the Masters.

The Masters also brings another element that is unique to the tournament. Former champions turn back the clock to battle with the golf course again which creates some amazing stories. There are a few that stick out this year and were an absolute pleasure to witness. 61-year-old Vijay Singh made the cut for the first time since 2018 and shot a pretty incredible even-par, 72 on Sunday. 58-year-old José María Olazábal made the cut as well, reminding us why fellow Spaniard Jon Rahm sought his valuable advice prior to his Masters victory in 2022.

Regardless of who wins, the Masters always delivers.

Bryson Moves the Needle

Plenty will disagree with me on this point, but outside of Tiger Woods, and potentially Rory McIlroy and Jordan Spieth, no one moves the needle in golf as much as Bryson DeChambeau. The uniqueness in which Bryson approaches the game has always been fascinating, and if he gets near the top of the leaderboard at any major championship, whether it’s to root for him or against him, people are interested.

It began on Monday with a pretty bizarre story of DeChambeau using 3D-printed irons that got just got cleared for use by the USGA when the week began. It once again felt like a storyline that would only be possible with a character as eccentric as Bryson. He then raced off to a first-round lead in tough conditions, reminding the world of what made him such a great golfer to begin with. He made some mistakes on the weekend, but still finished a career best T6 at The Masters.

Bryson is more than just quirky; he is a former U.S. Amateur Champion and U.S. Open who I believe will contend for more majors in the future. I will continue to root for DeChambeau, but I’m perfectly content with the fact that plenty will root against him, and I encourage those people to do so. That’s what makes it fun.

LIV Walks Away Empty-Handed

Last year, there were a multitude of questions about LIV players coming into the year’s first major. They had played very limited tournament golf, and critics of LIV questioned whether the 54-hole events were enough to sharpen the players enough to compete against the best in the world on the biggest stage.

The results were fascinating, with LIV players all over the leaderboard. Brooks Koepka held the 36- and 54-hole lead, with Phil Mickelson and Patrick Reed finishing T2 and T4, giving LIV three golfers in the top-4 of the leaderboard.

This season, with even more time removed and with some more massive additions to the roster, the intrigue surrounding LIV players at Augusta was once again palpable. While some players, including Bryson DeChambeau, exceeded expectations, I can’t help but walk away from the Masters feeling underwhelmed by the performance of the LIV players.

Brooks Koepka finished runner-up last season and is a certified major championship killer. The 5-time major champ was never involved and simply didn’t have it at Augusta. Dustin Johnson put together a putrid performance, shooting 13 over for his two rounds, making it fair to wonder if his days of contending at major championships are over as he rapidly approaches his 40th birthday.

Jon Rahm and Joaquin Niemann were both players who were amongst the favorites this week, but Rahm was faced with the daunting duties of defending champion and Niemann proved he was still not quite ready to master the quirks of Augusta National, bleeding strokes both around and on the greens.

To be fair, when all was said and done, LIV had four players in the top twelve at The Masters. Tyrrell Hatton stormed the leaderboard early on Sunday, finishing T9 and earning himself an invite back to Augusta next season. Cam Smith and Patrick Reed put together gritty performances, which isn’t too surprising considering the fact that they both absolutely love Augusta National, but neither ever felt a real threat to win. There’s no doubt the players on LIV are good, and that’s why some encouraging leaderboard positions aren’t enough. They needed to contend.

With no players part of the storyline on Sunday, I view the first major of the year as a disappointment for LIV. The players will head into next month’s PGA Championship at Valhalla with a lot to prove.

Rory’s Struggles Continues

Rory struggling at Augusta National is no surprise at this point. The four-time major champion has now had 10 attempts to complete the career grand slam and has never had a chance to win. His T2 in 2022 was deceiving, the Northern Irishman stormed the leaderboard on Sunday, but was never in contention, and never got within three shots of the winner, Scottie Scheffler.

I didn’t expect Rory to win, but I have to admit that this year felt a bit different. McIlroy played the week prior to the Masters, which he typically doesn’t do, and finished third at the Valero Texas Open. He gained 7.56 strokes on approach and 2.0 strokes off the tee, which told me that his visit with world-renowned swing coach, Butch Harmon, after the Players Championship paid dividends.

McIlroy also approached the media quite differently. He cut his pre-tournament press conference short after only 10 minutes and seemed to be laser-focused on just playing golf.

Despite the different approach to the Masters, the results were the same. McIlroy struggled over the course of the week, finishing T22 (+4) and never sniffed a decent weekend position on the leaderboard. It’s back to the drawing board for McIlroy, and I have doubts that he will ever figure it out at Augusta.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi: The 8 best prop bets for the 2024 Masters

Published

1 week ago

Apr 9, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

We’ve finally reached The Masters and excitement is at an all-time high. The world of golf has been fractured for the better part of two years, but for a week at Augusta National, all of the outside noise will disappear. All of the best players in the world will be together seeking to make history.

RELATED: Vincenzi’s 2024 Masters betting preview: Niemann to play star role at Augusta National

In addition to betting on The Masters champion. This is one of the few weeks of the year where there are so many more markets to explore, with value to be had in plenty of different categories.

Throughout this article, I’ll discuss all of my favorite props and players for the 2024 Masters.

Placement Bets:

Tony Finau Top 5 +750 (DraftKings):

I badly wanted to include Tony Finau in my outright betting selections, but I simply ran out of room on my card. Additionally, it’s slightly difficult to see him hitting the putts necessary to win the Masters on back nine on Sunday. However, I do strongly believe he will play great golf this week at Augusta National.

In his past 24 rounds, Finau ranks 4th in Strokes Gained: Approach is always amongst the best drivers of the golf ball in the game. Back in 2019, Finau had a great chance to win The Masters. I expect him to be hanging around over the weekend once again in 2024.

Gary Woodland Top 20 +550 (DraftKings), Gary Woodland to make the cut -110 (DraftKings):

Last season, Gary Woodland had his best ever finish at The Masters in his eleven tries. The 39-year-old finished T14 and played incredibly steady across all four rounds.

In Woodland’s most recent start at the Texas Children’s Houston Open, he struck the ball incredibly well. He led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach (+8.8) and Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (+10.0).

Gary has been working with Butch Harmon and absolutely flushing the ball both in tournaments and during practice.

Woodland appears to be healthy once again and in a great place physically and mentally. If he can build off his impressive performance at Augusta last year, he can place inside the top ten in 2024.

Additionally, the make the cut number on Woodland seems generous considering the number of players who miss the cut will be relatively small this week. Woodland is striking it well enough to make the cut even if he’s hindered by a balky putter once again.

Thorbjorn Olesen Top 20 +400 (FanDuel):

The Thunder Bear, Thorbjorn Olesen, made his Masters debut in 2013 and finished an incredibly impressive T6 for the week. In the two additional starts he’s made at Augusta National since then, the Dane has continued to be incredibly solid, finishing T44 and T21.

This week, Olesen heads into the week playing some good golf. He gained 3.8 strokes on approach and 5.52 strokes around the green at last week’s Valero Texas Open on his way to a strong T14 finish. Back in January, he won the Ras Al Khaimah Championship on the DP World Tour.

Olesen has the skill set to be successful at Augusta and seems primed for a good performance this week.

Top Nationalities:

Sergio Garcia Top Spanish Player +280 (DraftKings):

I believe Sergio Garcia can get into contention this week with the way he’s striking the ball in addition to his good vibes with a refurbished version of the Scotty Cameron that he used at the 1999 PGA Championship at Medinah.

I am slightly concerned about the emotional letdown he may face after losing in a playoff at LIV Miami, but I believe a veteran and former Masters champion should be able to regroup and focus on an event far more meaningful.

This is essentially a tournament head-to-head with Jon Rahm at +280. While Rahm deserves to be respected this week, the history of the lack of success of defending champions at The Masters is difficult to ignore.

Joaquin Niemann Top South American Player -230 (FanDuel):

While I hate paying this much juice, I don’t see a world in which Joaquin Niemann isn’t the top South American this week at The Masters. Joaco comes in playing better golf than anyone in the world not named Scottie Scheffler and has a serious chance to win the green jacket.

He only needs to beat two players: Emiliano Grillo and Camilo Villegas.

Tournament Head-to-Heads:

Justin Thomas -110 over Collin Morikawa

JT isn’t having his best season but is playing a lot better than he is getting credit for at the moment. In the past three months, there are only six players on the PGA Tour who have averaged 1.7 Strokes Gained: Tee to Green or better. Justin Thomas (+1.7) is one of the six and is currently tied with Rory McIlroy (+1.7).

Morikawa, on the other hand, has been extremely poor with his irons, which is incredibly uncharacteristic for him. I can’t help but feel like something is completely off with the two-time major champion.

Tony Finau -110 over Wyndham Clark

I explained in the placement section why I’m so high on Tony Finau this week. With how well he’s striking the ball, it seems as if his floor is extremely high. I’m not sure if he can make the putts to win a green jacket but I believe he will be in the mix similarly to 2019 when Tiger Woods emerged from a crowded pack of contenders.

Clark is a debutant, and while some debutants have had success at The Masters, it certainly poses a challenge. I also don’t believe Augusta National suits Clark as well as some of the other major championship venues.

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