Opinion & Analysis
Can Tiger Woods be the New Ben Hogan?
Now that the wait is over and Tiger Woods’ comeback to the PGA Tour is underway, I think the time has come to compare this comeback to the greatest comeback of all time: the 1950 return of Ben Hogan. In 1949, Ben Hogan was severally injured and permanently disabled when his car was hit head on by a speeding Greyhound bus. During his rehab, Hogan learned that he could still swing a golf club. He also learned that he wanted — more than anything — to return to tournament golf. And from what I understand, Tiger is the same way. He wants to win more major championships.
“I’m at 14, and the record’s 18, and of course I want to get there/ I set out to try and get to 19 … when I was 12, 13 years old. I thought that was the mark of all marks.” — Tiger Woods
So how did it go for Hogan? Well, a severely diminished Ben Hogan came back from that horrific accident to win the 1950 U.S. Open. Then he went on to win five more majors over the next four seasons. My best guess would be if Tiger needs a target, goal, objective or inspiration to exceed what Jack Nicklaus accomplished, then what Ben Hogan did would be it. I am going to take the position that Tiger doesn’t have to reinvent the comeback wheel. I believe that if Tiger does what Ben Hogan did, Tiger will get what Hogan got. Think about it. Five more majors. OK, so what did Hogan do?
“I was a much better golfer before the accident than I ever was afterward.” — Ben Hogan
First, Hogan learned that he didn’t need a new golf swing. He just started out doing what he could and just kept building on that. As I understand it, Tiger has done the same thing. Hogan’s goal was to get as good as he reasonably and safely could — not to be as good as he once was. Hopefully, Tiger can incorporate that mindset into his preparations. By parting ways with his most recent swing instructor, Tiger is telling us that he knows his golf swing better than any teacher — and that he’s finally ready to trust it. Butch Harmon, the top-rated teacher in the world, agrees that “[Tiger] knows more about the golf swing than I do.” Using modern technology, none of which was available to Hogan, Tiger will dig whatever he needs “out of the dirt.”
“The ultimate judge of your swing is the flight of the ball.” — Ben Hogan
Second, Hogan modified his practice to accommodate his broken body. He became much more focused on deliberate practice than in the past. He loved to hit balls, but now he had to be mindful of the toll for excess. He had to make each ball count for something, and he always wrote down what he was doing and how it was coming along. Tiger should take heed and, if necessary, retain a “practice manager” to maximize his practice time.
“I am trying to play myself back in shape. I just haven’t had enough competition. I’m hitting the ball as well as I ever did, but I’ve lost the knack of scoring.” — Ben Hogan
Third, Tiger has to get his game up to speed, and though I think swing instruction for him is unnecessary and potential damaging, I do think Tiger could benefit from individual expertise on an as needed basis. What really separates the players of today from those of the past is short game and wedge technique, not ball striking. More players today are capable of shooting low scores than Hogan faced.
Additionally, modern performance training and “best practices” coaching has demonstrated and proven that simulated environments that control the circumstances of the practice activity can substantially improve performance in actual competition. You must be aware that Hogan played a very limited schedule after the accident. In fact, he only played in six official events in 1953 (he won five). So where did the “competition” come from? I submit that it came from his preparation.
“Placing the ball in the right position for the next shot is 80 percent of winning golf.” — Ben Hogan
Finally, Hogan knew he wasn’t as good as before, and he knew everyone else knew that as well. But what he knew, which no one suspected, was that he didn’t have to be as good as he once was. He just had to be good enough. The same applies to Tiger, whether he knows it or not.
“The majors were the easiest to win because nine out of 10 players choke when the prize is in sight.” — Jack Nicklaus
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Of all the clubs in our bags, wedges are almost always the simplest in construction and, therefore, the easiest to analyze what might make one work differently from another if you know what to look for.
Wedges are a lot less mysterious than drivers, of course, as the major brands are working with a lot of “pixie dust” inside these modern marvels. That’s carrying over more to irons now, with so many new models featuring internal multi-material technologies, and almost all of them having a “badge” or insert in the back to allow more complex graphics while hiding the actual distribution of mass.
But when it comes to wedges, most on the market today are still single pieces of molded steel, either cast or forged into that shape. So, if you look closely at where the mass is distributed, it’s pretty clear how that wedge is going to perform.
To start, because of their wider soles, the majority of the mass of almost any wedge is along the bottom third of the clubhead. So, the best wedge shots are always those hit between the 2nd and 5th grooves so that more mass is directly behind that impact. Elite tour professionals practice incessantly to learn to do that consistently, wearing out a spot about the size of a penny right there. If impact moves higher than that, the face is dramatically thinner, so smash factor is compromised significantly, which reduces the overall distance the ball will fly.
Every one of us, tour players included, knows that maddening shot that we feel a bit high on the face and it doesn’t go anywhere, it’s not your fault.
If your wedges show a wear pattern the size of a silver dollar, and centered above the 3rd or 4th groove, you are not getting anywhere near the same performance from shot to shot. Robot testing proves impact even two to three grooves higher in the face can cause distance loss of up to 35 to 55 feet with modern ‘tour design’ wedges.
In addition, as impact moves above the center of mass, the golf club principle of gear effect causes the ball to fly higher with less spin. Think of modern drivers for a minute. The “holy grail” of driving is high launch and low spin, and the driver engineers are pulling out all stops to get the mass as low in the clubhead as possible to optimize this combination.
Where is all the mass in your wedges? Low. So, disregarding the higher lofts, wedges “want” to launch the ball high with low spin – exactly the opposite of what good wedge play requires penetrating ball flight with high spin.
While almost all major brand wedges have begun putting a tiny bit more thickness in the top portion of the clubhead, conventional and modern ‘tour design’ wedges perform pretty much like they always have. Elite players learn to hit those crisp, spinny penetrating wedge shots by spending lots of practice time learning to consistently make contact low in the face.
So, what about grooves and face texture?
Grooves on any club can only do so much, and no one has any material advantage here. The USGA tightly defines what we manufacturers can do with grooves and face texture, and modern manufacturing techniques allow all of us to push those limits ever closer. And we all do. End of story.
Then there’s the topic of bounce and grinds, the most complex and confusing part of the wedge formula. Many top brands offer a complex array of sole configurations, all of them admittedly specialized to a particular kind of lie or turf conditions, and/or a particular divot pattern.
But if you don’t play the same turf all the time, and make the same size divot on every swing, how would you ever figure this out?
The only way is to take any wedge you are considering and play it a few rounds, hitting all the shots you face and observing the results. There’s simply no other way.
So, hopefully this will inspire a lively conversation in our comments section, and I’ll chime in to answer any questions you might have.
And next week, I’ll dive into the rest of the wedge formula. Yes, shafts, grips and specifications are essential, too.
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Golf's Perfect Imperfections
Golf’s Perfect Imperfections: Amazing Session with Performance Coach Savannah Meyer-Clement
In this week’s episode, we spent some time with performance coach Savannah Meyer-Clement who provides many useful insights that you’ll be able to implement on the golf course.
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19th Hole
Vincenzi’s 2024 RBC Heritage betting preview: Patrick Cantlay ready to get back inside winner’s circle
Just a two-hour drive from Augusta National, the PGA TOUR heads to Harbour Town Golf Links in Hilton Head Island, S.C. Hilton Head Island is a golfer’s paradise and Harbour Town is one of the most beautiful and scenic courses on the PGA TOUR.
Harbour Town Golf Links is a par-71 that measures 7,121 yards and features Bermuda grass greens. A Pete Dye design, the course is heavily tree lined and features small greens and many dog legs, protecting it from “bomb-and-gauge” type golfers.
The field is loaded this week with 69 golfers with no cut. Last year was quite possibly the best field in RBC Heritage history and the event this week is yet another designated event, meaning there is a $20 million prize pool.
Most of the big names on the PGA Tour will be in attendance this week with the exceptions of Hideki Matsuyama and Viktor Hovland. Additionally, Webb Simpson, Shane Lowry, Gary Woodland and Kevin Kisner have been granted sponsors exemptions.
Past Winners at Harbour Town
- 2023: Matt Fitzpatrick (-17)
- 2022: Jordan Spieth (-13)
- 2021: Stewart Cink (-19)
- 2020: Webb Simpson (-22)
- 2019: CT Pan (-12)
- 2018: Sotoshi Kodaira (-12)
- 2017: Wesley Bryan (-13)
- 2016: Branden Grace (-9)
- 2015: Jim Furyk (-18)
In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value).
Key Stats For Harbour Town
Let’s take a look at key metrics for Harbour Town Golf Links to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their past 24 rounds.
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Approach is exceedingly important this week. The greens at Harbour Town are about half the size of PGA TOUR average and feature the second-smallest greens on the tour. Typical of a Pete Dye design, golfers will pay the price for missed greens.
Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds
- Scottie Scheffler (+1.27)
- Tom Hoge (+1.27)
- Corey Conners (+1.16)
- Austin Eckroat (+0.95)
- Cameron Young (+0.93)
Good Drive %
The fairways at Harbour Town are tree lined and feature many dog legs. Bombers tend to struggle at the course because it forces layups and doesn’t allow long drivers to overpower it. Accuracy is far more important than power.
Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds
- Brice Garnett (88.8%)
- Shane Lowry (+87.2%)
- Akshay Bhatia (+86.0%)
- Si Woo Kim (+85.8%)
- Sepp Straka (+85.1%)
Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye Designs
Pete Dye specialists tend to play very well at Harbour Town. Si Woo Kim, Matt Kuchar, Jim Furyk and Webb Simpson are all Pete Dye specialists who have had great success here. It is likely we see some more specialists near the top of the leaderboard this week.
SG: TOT Pete Dye per round over past 36 rounds:
- Xander Schauffele (+2.27)
- Scottie Scheffler (+2.24)
- Ludvig Aberg (+2.11)
- Brian Harman (+1.89)
- Sungjae Im (+1.58)
4. Strokes Gained: Short Game (Bermuda)
Strokes Gained: Short Game factors in both around the green and putting. With many green-side bunkers and tricky green complexes, both statistics will be important. Past winners — such as Jim Furyk, Wes Bryan and Webb Simpson — highlight how crucial the short game skill set is around Harbour Town.
SG: SG Over Past 24 Rounds
- Jordan Spieth (+1.11)
- Taylor Moore (+1.02)
- Wyndham Clark (+0.98)
- Mackenzie Hughes (+0.86)
- Andrew Putnam (+0.83)
5. Greens in Regulation %
The recipe for success at Harbour Town Golf Links is hitting fairways and greens. Missing either will prove to be consequential — golfers must be in total control of the ball to win.
Greens in Regulation % over past 24 rounds:
- Brice Garnett (+75.0%)
- Scottie Scheffler (+69.9%)
- Corey Conners (+69.0%)
- Shane Lowry (+68.3%)
- Patrick Rodgers (+67.6%)
6. Course History
Harbour Town is a course where players who have strong past results at the course always tend to pop up.
Course History over past 24 rounds:
- Patrick Cantlay (+2.34)
- Cam Davis (+2.05)
- J.T. Poston (+1.69)
- Justin Rose (+1.68)
- Tommy Fleetwood (+1.59)
The RBC Heritage Model Rankings
Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (24%), Good Drives (20%), SG: SG (14%), SG: Pete Dye (14%), GIR (14%), and Course History (14%)
- Shane Lowry
- Russell Henley
- Scottie Scheffler
- Xander Schauffele
- Corey Conners
- Wyndham Clark
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout
- Matt Fitzpatrick
- Cameron Young
- Ludvig Aberg
2024 RBC Heritage Picks
Patrick Cantlay +2000 (FanDuel)
With the exception of Scottie Scheffler, the PGA Tour has yet to have any of their star players show peak form during the 2024 season. Last week, Patrick Cantlay, who I believe is a top-5 players on the PGA Tour, took one step closer to regaining the form that’s helped him win eight events on Tour since 2017.
Cantlay limped into the Masters in poor form, but figured it out at Augusta National, finishing in a tie for 20th and ranking 17th for the week in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. The former FedEx Cup champion will now head to one of his favorite golf courses in Harbour Town, where he’s had immaculate results over the years. In his six trips to the course, he’s only finished worse than 7th one time. The other finishes include three third places (2017, 2019, 2023) and one runner-up finish (2022). In his past 36 rounds at Harbour Town, Cantlay ranks 1st in Strokes Gained: Total per round at the course by a wide margin (+2.36).
Cantlay is winless since the 2022 BMW Championship, which is far too long for a player of his caliber. With signs pointing to the 32-year-old returning to form, a “signature event” at Harbour Town is just what he needs to get back on the winning track.
Tommy Fleetwood +3000 (FanDuel)
I truly believe Tommy Fleetwood will figure out a way to win on American soil in 2024. It’s certainly been a bugaboo for him throughout his career, but he is simply too talented to go another season without winning a PGA Tour event.
At last week’s Masters Tournament, Fleetwood made a Sunday charge and ended up finishing T3 in the event, which was his best ever finish at The Masters. For the week, the Englishman ranked 8th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, 10th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking and 16th in Strokes Gained: Putting.
Harbour Town is a perfect layout for Fleetwood, and he’s had relative success at this Pete Dye design in the past. In his four trips to the course, he’s finished inside of the top 25 three times, with his best finish, T10, coming in 2022. The course is pretty short and can’t be overpowered, which gives an advantage to more accurate players such as Fleetwood. Tommy ranks 8th in the field in Good Drive % and should be able to plot his way along this golf course.
The win is coming for Tommy lad. I believe there’s a chance this treasure of a golf course may be the perfect one for him to finally break through on Tour.
Cameron Young +3300 (FanDuel)
Cameron Young had a solid Masters Tournament last week, which is exactly what I’m looking for in players who I anticipate playing well this week at the RBC Heritage. He finished in a tie for 9th, but never felt the pressure of contending in the event. For the week, Young ranked 6th in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking.
Despite being one of the longest players off the tee on the PGA Tour, Young has actually played some really good golf on shorter tracks. He finished T3 at Harbour Town in 2023 and ranks 20th in the field in Good Drive% and 16th in Greens in Regulation in his past 24 rounds. He also has strong finishes at other shorter courses that can take driver out of a players hand such as Copperhead and PGA National.
Young is simply one of the best players on the PGA Tour in 2024, and I strongly believe has what it takes to win a PGA Tour event in the very near future.
Corey Conners +5500 (FanDuel)
Corey Conners has had a disappointing year thus far on the PGA Tour, but absolutely loves Harbour Town.
At last week’s Masters Tournament, the Canadian finished T30 but ranked 20th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach. In his past 24 rounds, Conners ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, 3rd in Greens in Regulation % and 24th in Good Drive %.
In Conners’ last four trips to Harbour Town, his worst finish was T31, last season. He finished T4 in 2021, T12 in 2022 and ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Total at the course over his past 36 rounds.
Conners hasn’t been contending, but his recent finishes have been encouraging as he has finished in the top-25 in each of his past three starts prior to The Masters, including an impressive T13 at The PLAYERS. His recent improvement in ball striking as well as his suitability for Harbour Town makes Conners a high upside bet this week.
Shane Lowry (+7500) (FanDuel)
When these odds were posted after Lowry was announced in the field, I have to admit I was pretty stunned. Despite not offering much win equity on the PGA Tour over the last handful of years, Shane Lowry is still a top caliber player who has the ability to rise to the top of a signature event.
Lowry struggled to score at The Masters last week, but he actually hit the ball really well. The Irishman ranked 1st for Strokes Gained: Approach on the week and 7th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. As usual, it was the putter that let him down, as he ranked 60th in the field in Strokes Gained: Putting.
Harbour Town is most definitely one of Lowry’s favorite courses on the PGA Tour. In his six starts there, he’s finished in the top 10 three times, including third twice. Lowry is sensational at Pete Dye designs and ranks 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in his past 36 rounds on Dye tracks.
Lowry is perfect for Harbour Town. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 5th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 2nd in Good Drive% and 5th in Green in Regulation %. If he figures it out on the greens, Shane could have his first win in America since 2015.
Lucas Glover +12000 (FanDuel)
This is one of my weekly “bet the number” plays as I strongly believe the odds are just too long for a player of Glover’s caliber. The odds have been too long on Glover for a few weeks now, but this is the first event that I can get behind the veteran being able to actually contend at.
Glover is quietly playing good golf and returning to the form he had after the understandable regression after his two massive victories at the end of 2023. He finished T20 at The Masters, which was his best ever finish at Augusta National. For the week, Lucas ranked 18th for Strokes Gained: Approach and 20th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking.
Over his past 24 rounds, Glover ranks 9th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 13th in Good Drive %. Harbour Town is a short course that the 44-year-old will be able to keep up with the top players on Tour off the tee. He’s played the course more than 20 times, with mixed results. His best finishes at Harbour Town include a T7 in 2008, but recently has a finish of T21 in 2020.
Glover has proven he can contend with the stars of the Tour on any given week, and this number is flat out disrespectful.
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Ben Jones
Feb 28, 2018 at 5:53 pm
Hit his driver like Hogan? Control his irons like Hogan? Use balata balls, blades and woods like Hogan? Nope.
Dennis Silvers
Feb 16, 2018 at 9:46 pm
Hogan almost won his 1st tournament after coming back from his accident. Tiger just missed the cut at Riviera and will continue to flounder.
CB
Feb 14, 2018 at 1:12 am
In a word, no. Mr Hogan wasn’t a nasty voyeuristic skirt-chasing adulterous dirt bag like Eldrick.
Ben Jones
Feb 13, 2018 at 1:22 pm
No one will ever be Ben Hogan just like no one will ever be Jack Nicklaus. Those days are gone.
integrity matters
Feb 12, 2018 at 9:12 pm
No. Ben Hogan had integrity. Mr. Woods is sorely lacking in that. Ben Hogan never cheated in the Masters. Mr Woods has.
Steve S
Feb 12, 2018 at 5:39 pm
It’s amazing what has happened to reading comprehension in this country. He’s not comparing the injuries. He’s saying use Hogan as a model for a comeback. Why wouldn’t you use Hogan as an example?
Jordan
Feb 12, 2018 at 3:03 pm
I know all the hard core hogan fans hate when tiger and Ben are mentioned in the same breath but I think this areticle is a great blueprint for tiger to follow. Not really comparable injury situation though. 1953 is the greatest display of tournament golf ever period.
Jack Nash
Feb 12, 2018 at 2:35 pm
Hogan’s crash? He almost died. He was lucky to make it.That being said it’s kind of obvious his abilities would be seriously degraded.(permantly disabled, broken body) Woods never went thru that. His injuries were caused by golf, not a major auto accident. I really don’t see a comparison with reading the article. I see a wanted comparison. That being said I see similarities with the mind. Both strong willed people. That can make up for a lot of other discrepancies. Woods I think will just want to compete, and be healthy to start. He’s obviously aiming for the Masters, but will have to work on his 2 way miss. What I do like about Woods come back is he’s more willing to reveal himself more, which is refreshing. Still a nice read though.
Sven Olsen
Feb 12, 2018 at 1:49 pm
The idea may be fascinating, but!!
Ben Hogan was a one-off golfer in so many ways – Tiger, with his obvious stubborness and other positive sides, do not, I am sorry to say, reach Hogan to the knees.
Mark
Feb 12, 2018 at 12:57 pm
Very nice read! History repeats itself and this is an interesting analogy amoung two of the greatest
William Davis
Feb 12, 2018 at 12:39 pm
It is MR Hogan to you lot. Silly article jumping on the hysterical media band wagon. Still, good luck to Woods but I prefer TV coverage when he is absent.
Gerald Teigrob
Feb 12, 2018 at 1:08 pm
Not me, but you might do well to move the needle yourself. Tiger still moves the needle and for those of us walking wounded he is clearly more of an inspiration than you will ever be!
farmer
Feb 12, 2018 at 12:12 pm
Hogan’s body was broken, but not his mind. Tiger’s mind spiraled out of control, then his body broke.
Gerald Teigrob
Feb 12, 2018 at 1:11 pm
And did you read the entire article? I have been where the mind spirals and I would say that you should be careful not to make light of it. Mental illness is curable but ignorance and blindness shows lack of sensitivity from others, which is really sad!
Rev G
Feb 12, 2018 at 12:03 pm
My first impression of the article after reading the first paragraph was pretty much the same as the above post. But in reality the article isn’t really comparing the two situations or injuries – it’s saying that Woods should follow the game plan that Hogan used for his comeback if he wants to succeed. And I have to say I agree and I think all of us as we get older and more “banged up” can learn from how Hogan approached the game after his accident.
Ed Myers
Feb 12, 2018 at 12:37 pm
Thank you for your comment and for actually reading the article.
Gerald Teigrob
Feb 12, 2018 at 1:18 pm
Well said Rev G! Many of us have been through similar aspects of Tiger’s healing process. Many of us have developed bad knees from strain over the years and injuries. This article is more about what Tiger can do to follow in Ben’s footsteps. Wise words for all of us. Hogan set a model for those of us banged up amateurs would also do well to follow. And before we look at indicting Tiger we would do well to look at our own backyards to take the log out of our own eyes.
Joro
Feb 12, 2018 at 12:02 pm
What planet does this “writer” live on to say this. Tiger was the best, but it is over and he does not have the same drive that Hogan had, no way. He has got everything in the World including many injuries and other problems, he well not win again!
Jerry L Hoffman
Feb 12, 2018 at 11:48 am
Sorry but not even close comparison. Hogan was told he would never walk again multiple broken bones and legs crushed. Last day competition was always 36 holes not 18 making it even more remarkable. The other point rarely mentioned was Hogan’s eyesight was also effected making his depth perception compromised and major cause if his putting words.
Kelly Gallagher
Feb 12, 2018 at 11:48 am
To compare Tigers comeback to Ben Hogan is just plain stupid. Hogan nearly died in that accident. Are you on crack or something. What a ridiculous thing to write about.
Dale Winstead
Feb 12, 2018 at 11:37 am
Terrible comparison. Circumstances totally different. And let’s see if Tiger even wins let alone wins a major before writing clickbait articles like this.