Opinion & Analysis
The 24 players who can win The 2018 Masters
Each year for the Masters, I create a filtering process to help determine the players that are most likely to win the Green Jacket based on criteria that has strongly predicted outcomes at Augusta. I usually get the list down to roughly 23 players. Last year, I had Sergio Garcia as one of my 20 players that could win the Masters. Despite Sergio’s lack of success at Augusta, he came away with the Green Jacket.
Before I discuss my picks for this year’s Masters, I want to go over what I call the “critical holes” for Augusta National. The critical holes in any tournament are the ones where the top finishers typically gain the most strokes on the field, as well as where the greatest deviation in scores exist. One of the interesting aspects about critical holes is that they often change over time due to changes in the course conditions, course design or a change in player strategy, which can create a smaller deviation in scores. This year the projected Critical Holes are Nos. 3, 13, 14 and 15.
Moving on to the tournament, I filtered out the amateurs and all first-time professional attendees. The Masters has only been won once by a first-time attendee: Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979.
Filtered Out: Amateurs and First-Time Attendees
- Wesley Bryan
- Austin Cook
- Harry Ellis (a)
- Tony Finau
- Dylan Frittelli
- Doug Ghim (a)
- Patton Kizzire
- Satoshin Kodaira
- Haotong Li
- Yuxin Lin (a)
- Yusaku Miyazato
- Joaquin Niemann (a)
- Matt Parziale (a)
- Doc Redman (a)
- Xander Schauffele
- Shubhankar Sharma
These first-time invitees are a little less battle tested on the big stage than the previous years’ first time invitees, although Finau, Schauffele and Li show some real promise in the future at Augusta. I also filtered out 11 past champions that I do not believe can compete at Augusta National anymore.
Filtered Out: Improbable Past Champions
- Angel Cabrera
- Fred Couples
- Trevor Immelman
- Bernhard Langer
- Sandy Lyle
- Larry Mize
- Mark O’Meara
- Jose Maria Olazabal
- Vijay Singh
- Mike Weir
- Ian Woosnam
The Zach Johnson Debate
Every year I do my Masters picks, it’s always get pointed out that I do not pick former Masters Champion Zach Johnson due to his lack of length off the tee. Augusta National greatly favors long-ball hitters. They can play the par-5s more like par-4s, and typically the longer hitters can also hit the ball higher so they can get their long approach shots to hold the green more easily.
When Johnson won the Masters in 2007, the event featured record-low temperatures in the mid-40s and wind gusts of 33 mph. This made it very hard for any player to reach the par-5s in two shots and allowed Johnson to get into a wedge contest on the par-5’s, his strength. The temperatures are predicted to be in the mid-70s this year. Unless that changes by 30+ degrees and the wind gusts double, I don’t see Johnson having a very good chance to win the event. Along with Johnson, I would also eliminate these shorter hitters:
Filtered-Out: Short Hitters
- Adam Hadwin
- Brian Harman
- Kevin Kisner
- Matt Kuchar
- Ryan Moore
- Pat Perez
- Ted Potter, Jr.
- Chez Reavie
- Webb Simpson
- Kyle Stanley
- Si Woo Kim
A part of the game that is just as critical as distance is the trajectory height a player can create. Last year, I filtered out nine players for hitting the ball too low. Four of the nine missed the cut. One of the picks, Paul Casey, finished T6. His instructor, Peter Kostis, recommended that I not just look solely at the Apex Height metric, but also look at carry distance when it comes to the trajectory the player puts on the ball. I have done that for this year’s Masters picks and have eliminated four players.
Filtered Out: Low-Ball Hitters
- Jason Dufner
- Branden Grace
- Russell Henley
- Ian Poulter
Since the inauguration of the event, there have only been two winners of the Masters that have previously never made the cut: Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979 and Gene Sarazen in 1936. Let’s filter them out as well.
Filtered Out: Never Made the Cut at Augusta
- Tommy Fleetwood
- Tyrrell Hatton
- Alex Noren
- Jhonattan Vegas
I will also filter out the players that missed the cut at the Houston Open. Missing the cut the week prior to an event greatly reduces the likelihood of the player winning, finishing in the top-10, finishing in the top-25 and even making the cut regardless of the event.
Filtered Out: Missed the Cut in Houston
- Rafa Cabrera-Bello
- Yuta Ikeda
- Martin Kaymer
Lastly, I have filtered out the weak performers from the “Red Zone,” approach shots from 175-225 yards. While Augusta is known for its greens, the winners are determined mostly by the quality of their approach shots throughout the event. In fact, nine of the last 10 champions have hit at least 49 Greens in Regulation during the week.
The key shots where the most strokes are gained/lost at Augusta National are from the Red Zone. Last year, I had 17 players filtered out for poor Red Zone play. Outside of Kevin Chappell (T7), almost all of those players performed poorly.
Filtered Out: Weak from 175-225 Yards
- Kiradech Aphibarnrat
- Patrick Cantlay
- Jason Day
- Ross Fisher
- Matthew Fitzpatrick
- Billy Horschel
- Dustin Johnson
- Francesco Molinari
- Charl Schwartzel
- Brendan Steele
- Bernd Wiesberger
- Danny Willett
Perhaps the biggest surprise here is Dustin Johnson. He currently ranks 176th from the Red Zone despite historically being an excellent Red Zone performer. At his current rate, he would like need to dominate Augusta off the tee with his prodigious length and putt very well to win the Green Jacket. But the numbers don’t like a player’s odds of being able to do that on such an approach shot oriented course.
That leaves us with 24 players that can win the Masters. Their Vegas Odds, which are subject to change, are in parentheses. My personal top-10 picks are just below.
The 24 players who can win the 2018 Masters
- Paul Casey (22/1)
- Kevin Chappell (100/1)
- Bryson DeChambeau (66/1)
- Rickie Fowler (18/1)
- Sergio Garcia (28/1)
- Charley Hoffman (80/1)
- Mark Leishman (66/1)
- Hideki Matsuyama (25/1)
- Rory McIlroy (9/1)
- Phil Mickelson (16/1)
- Louis Oosthuizen (50/1)
- Thomas Pieters (66/1)
- Jon Rahm (18/1)
- Patrick Reed (40/1)
- Justin Rose (20/1)
- Adam Scott (33/1)
- Cameron Smith (150/1)
- Jordan Spieth (10/1)
- Henrik Stenson (40/1)
- Justin Thomas (10/1)
- Jimmy Walker (150/1)
- Bubba Watson (14/1)
- Gary Woodland (150/1)
- Tiger Woods (11/1)
My Personal Top-10 Picks
- Paul Casey (22/1)
- Rory McIlroy (9/1)
- Phil Mickelson (16/1)
- Louis Oosthuizen (50/1)
- Jon Rahm (18/1)
- Patrick Reed (40/1)
- Justin Rose (20/1)
- Jordan Spieth (10/1)
- Justin Thomas (10/1)
- Bubba Watson (14/1)
Click here for up-to-date betting odds on The Masters.
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Instruction
The Wedge Guy: The easiest-to-learn golf basic
My golf learning began with this simple fact – if you don’t have a fundamentally sound hold on the golf club, it is practically impossible for your body to execute a fundamentally sound golf swing. I’m still a big believer that the golf swing is much easier to execute if you begin with the proper hold on the club.
As you might imagine, I come into contact with hundreds of golfers of all skill levels. And it is very rare to see a good player with a bad hold on the golf club. There are some exceptions, for sure, but they are very few and very far between, and they typically have beat so many balls with their poor grip that they’ve found a way to work around it.
The reality of biophysics is that the body moves only in certain ways – and the particulars of the way you hold the golf club can totally prevent a sound swing motion that allows the club to release properly through the impact zone. The wonderful thing is that anyone can learn how to put a fundamentally sound hold on the golf club, and you can practice it anywhere your hands are not otherwise engaged, like watching TV or just sitting and relaxing.
Whether you prefer an overlap, interlock or full-finger (not baseball!) grip on the club, the same fundamentals apply. Here are the major grip faults I see most often, in the order of the frequency:
Mis-aligned hands
By this I mean that the palms of the two hands are not parallel to each other. Too many golfers have a weak left hand and strong right, or vice versa. The easiest way to learn how to hold the club with your palms aligned properly is to grip a plain wooden ruler or yardstick. It forces the hands to align properly and shows you how that feels. If you grip and re-grip a yardstick several times, then grip a club, you’ll see that the learning curve is almost immediate.
The position of the grip in the upper/left hand
I also observe many golfers who have the butt of the grip too far into the heel pad of the upper hand (the left hand for right-handed players). It’s amazing how much easier it is to release the club through the ball if even 1/4-1/2″ of the butt is beyond the left heel pad. Try this yourself to see what I mean. Swing the club freely with just your left hand and notice the difference in its release from when you hold it at the end of the grip, versus gripping down even a half inch.
To help you really understand how this works, go to the range and hit shots with your five-iron gripped down a full inch to make the club the same length as your seven-iron. You will probably see an amazing shot shape difference, and likely not see as much distance loss as you would expect.
Too much lower (right) hand on the club
It seems like almost all golfers of 8-10 handicap or higher have the club too far into the palm of the lower hand, because that feels “good” if you are trying to control the path of the clubhead to the ball. But the golf swing is not an effort to hit at the ball – it is a swing of the club. The proper hold on the club has the grip underneath the pad at the base of the fingers. This will likely feel “weak” to you — like you cannot control the club like that. EXACTLY. You should not be trying to control the club with your lower/master hand.
Gripping too tightly
Nearly all golfers hold the club too tightly, which tenses up the forearms and prevents a proper release of the club through impact. In order for the club to move back and through properly, you must feel that the club is controlled by the last three fingers of the upper hand, and the middle two fingers of the lower hand. If you engage your thumbs and forefingers in “holding” the club, the result will almost always be a grip that is too tight. Try this for yourself. Hold the club in your upper hand only, and squeeze firmly with just the last three fingers, with the forefinger and thumb off the club entirely. You have good control, but your forearms are not tense. Then begin to squeeze down with your thumb and forefinger and observe the tensing of the entire forearm. This is the way we are made, so the key to preventing tenseness in the arms is to hold the club very lightly with the “pinchers” — the thumbs and forefingers.
So, those are what I believe are the four fundamentals of a good grip. Anyone can learn them in their home or office very quickly. There is no easier way to improve your ball striking consistency and add distance than giving more attention to the way you hold the golf club.
More from the Wedge Guy
- The Wedge Guy: Golf mastery begins with your wedge game
- The Wedge Guy: Why golf is 20 times harder than brain surgery
- The Wedge Guy: Musings on the golf ball rollback
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19th Hole
Vincenzi’s 2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open betting preview
As the Florida swing comes to an end, the PGA Tour makes its way to Houston to play the Texas Children’s Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course.
This will be the fourth year that Memorial Park Golf Course will serve as the tournament host. The event did not take place in 2023, but the course hosted the event in 2020, 2021 and 2022.
Memorial Park is a par-70 layout measuring 7,432 yards and features Bermudagrass greens. Historically, the main defense for the course has been thick rough along the fairways and tightly mown runoff areas around the greens. Memorial Park has a unique setup that features three Par 5’s and five Par 3’s.
The field will consist of 132 players, with the top 65 and ties making the cut. There are some big names making the trip to Houston, including Scottie Scheffler, Wyndham Clark, Tony Finau, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala.
Past Winners at Memorial Park
- 2022: Tony Finau (-16)
- 2021: Jason Kokrak (-10)
- 2020: Carlos Ortiz (-13)
In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value).
Key Stats For Memorial Park
Let’s take a look at several metrics for Memorial Park to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds:
Strokes Gained: Approach
Memorial Park is a pretty tough golf course. Golfers are penalized for missing greens and face some difficult up and downs to save par. Approach will be key.
Total Strokes Gained: Approach per round in past 24 rounds:
- Tom Hoge (+1.30)
- Scottie Scheffler (+1.26)
- Keith Mitchell (+0.97)
- Tony Finau (+0.92)
- Jake Knapp (+0.84)
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
Memorial Park is a long golf course with rough that can be penal. Therefore, a combination of distance and accuracy is the best metric.
Total Strokes Gained: Off the Tee per round in past 24 rounds:
- Scottie Scheffler (+0.94)
- Kevin Dougherty (+0.93)
- Cameron Champ (+0.86)
- Rafael Campos (+0.84)
- Si Woo Kim (+0.70)
Strokes Gained Putting: Bermudagrass + Fast
The Bermudagrass greens played fairly fast the past few years in Houston. Jason Kokrak gained 8.7 strokes putting on his way to victory in 2021 and Tony Finau gained in 7.8 in 2022.
Total Strokes Gained Putting (Bermudagrass) per round past 24 rounds (min. 8 rounds):
- Adam Svensson (+1.27)
- Harry Hall (+1.01)
- Martin Trainer (+0.94)
- Taylor Montgomery (+0.88)
- S.H. Kim (+0.86)
Strokes Gained: Around the Green
With firm and undulating putting surfaces, holding the green on approach shots may prove to be a challenge. Memorial Park has many tightly mowed runoff areas, so golfers will have challenging up-and-down’s around the greens. Carlos Ortiz gained 5.7 strokes around the green on the way to victory in 2020.
Total Strokes Gained: Around the Green per round in past 24 rounds:
- Mackenzie Hughes (+0.76)
- S.H. Kim (+0.68)
- Scottie Scheffler (+0.64)
- Jorge Campillo (+0.62)
- Jason Day (+0.60)
Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult
Memorial Park is a long and difficult golf course. This statistic will incorporate players who’ve had success on these types of tracks in the past.
Total Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult in past 24 rounds:
- Scottie Scheffler (+2.45)
- Ben Griffin (+1.75)
- Will Zalatoris (+1.73)
- Ben Taylor (+1.53)
- Tony Finau (+1.42)
Course History
Here are the players who have performed the most consistently at Memorial Park.
Strokes Gained Total at Memorial Park past 12 rounds:
- Tyson Alexander (+3.65)
- Ben Taylor (+3.40)
- Tony Finau (+2.37)
- Joel Dahmen (+2.25)
- Patton Kizzire (+2.16)
Statistical Model
Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.
These rankings are comprised of SG: App (24%) SG: OTT (24%); SG: Putting Bermudagrass/Fast (13%); SG: Long and Difficult (13%); SG: ARG (13%) and Course History (13%)
- Scottie Scheffler
- Wyndham Clark
- Tony Finau
- Joel Dahmen
- Stephan Jaeger
- Aaron Rai
- Sahith Theegala
- Keith Mitchell
- Jhonnatan Vegas
- Jason Day
- Kurt Kitayama
- Alex Noren
- Will Zalatoris
- Si Woo Kim
- Adam Long
2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open Picks
Will Zalatoris +2000 (Caesars)
Scottie Scheffler will undoubtedly be difficult to beat this week, so I’m starting my card with someone who I believe has the talent to beat him if he doesn’t have his best stuff.
Will Zalatoris missed the cut at the PLAYERS, but still managed to gain strokes on approach while doing so. In an unpredictable event with extreme variance, I don’t believe it would be wise to discount Zalatoris based on that performance. Prior to The PLAYERS, the 27-year-old finished T13, T2 and T4 in his previous three starts.
Zalatoris plays his best golf on long and difficult golf courses. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the category, but the eye test also tells a similar story. He’s contended at major championships and elevated events in the best of fields with tough scoring conditions. The Texas resident should be a perfect fit at Memorial Park Golf Club.
Alex Noren +4500 (FanDuel)
Alex Noren has been quietly playing some of his best golf of the last half decade this season. The 41-year-old is coming off back-to-back top-20 finishes in Florida including a T9 at The PLAYERS in his most recent start.
In his past 24 rounds, Noren ranks 21st in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 30th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, 25th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses and 21st in Strokes Gained: Putting on fast Bermudagrass greens.
In addition to his strong recent play, the Swede also has played well at Memorial Park. In 2022, Noren finished T4 at the event, gaining 2.2 strokes off the tee and 7.0 strokes on approach for the week. In his two starts at the course, he’s gained an average of .6 strokes per round on the field, indicating he is comfortable on these greens.
Noren has been due for a win for what feels like an eternity, but Memorial Park may be the course that suits him well enough for him to finally get his elusive first PGA Tour victory.
Mackenzie Hughes +8000 (FanDuel)
Mackenzie Hughes found himself deep into contention at last week’s Valspar Championship before faltering late and finishing in a tie for 3rd place. While he would have loved to win the event, it’s hard to see the performance as anything other than an overwhelming positive sign for the Canadian.
Hughes has played great golf at Memorial Park in the past. He finished T7 in 2020, T29 in 2021 and T16 in 2022. The course fit seems to be quite strong for Hughes. He’s added distance off the tee in the past year or and ranks 8th in the field for apex height, which will be a key factor when hitting into Memorial Park’s elevated greens with steep run-off areas.
In his past 24 rounds, Hughes is the best player in the field in Strokes Gained: Around the Greens. The ability to scramble at this course will be extremely important. I believe Hughes can build off of his strong finish last week and contend once again to cement himself as a President’s Cup consideration.
Akshay Bhatia +8000 (FanDuel)
Akshay Bhatia played well last week at the Valspar and seemed to be in total control of his golf ball. He finished in a tie for 17th and shot an impressive -3 on a difficult Sunday. After struggling Thursday, Akshay shot 68-70-68 in his next three rounds.
Thus far, Bhatia has played better at easier courses, but his success at Copperhead may be due to his game maturing. The 22-year-old has enormous potential and the raw talent to be one of the best players in the world when he figures it all out.
Bhatia is a high upside play with superstar qualities and may just take the leap forward to the next stage of his career in the coming months.
Cameron Champ +12000 (FanDuel)
Cameron Champ is a player I often target in the outright betting market due to his “boom-or-bust” nature. It’s hard to think of a player in recent history with three PGA Tour wins who’s been as inconsistent as Champ has over the course of his career.
Despite the erratic play, Cam Champ simply knows how to win. He’s won in 2018, 2019 and 2021, so I feel he’s due for a win at some point this season. The former Texas A&M product should be comfortable in Texas and last week he showed us that his game is in a pretty decent spot.
Over his past 24 rounds, Champ ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 30th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses. Given his ability to spike at any given time, Memorial Park is a good golf course to target Champ on at triple digit odds.
Robert MacIntyre +12000 (FanDuel)
The challenge this week is finding players who can possibly beat Scottie Scheffler while also not dumping an enormous amount of money into an event that has a player at the top that looks extremely dangerous. Enter McIntyre, who’s another boom-or-bust type player who has the ceiling to compete with anyone when his game is clicking on all cylinders.
In his past 24 rounds, MacIntyre ranks 16th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 17th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and 10th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses.
MacIntyre’s PGA Tour season has gotten off to a slow start, but he finished T6 in Mexico, which is a course where players will hit driver on the majority of their tee shots, which is what we will see at Memorial Park. Texas can also get quite windy, which should suit MacIntyre. Last July, the Scot went toe to toe with Rory McIlroy at the Scottish Open before a narrow defeat. It would take a similar heroic effort to compete with Scheffler this year in Houston.
Ryan Moore +15000 (FanDuel)
Ryan Moore’s iron play has been absolutely unconscious over his past few starts. At The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field, he gained 6.1 strokes on approach and last week at Copperhead, he gained 9.0 strokes on approach.
It’s been a rough handful of years on Tour for the 41-year-old, but he is still a five-time winner on the PGA Tour who’s young enough for a career resurgence. Moore has chronic deterioration in a costovertebral joint that connects the rib to the spine, but has been getting more consistent of late, which is hopefully a sign that he is getting healthy.
Veterans have been contending in 2024 and I believe taking a flier on a proven Tour play who’s shown signs of life is a wise move at Memorial Park.
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Opinion & Analysis
Ryan: Why the race to get better at golf might be doing more harm than good
B.F. Skinner was one of the most important psychologists of the 20th century, developing the foundation of the development of reinforcement, and in doing so, creating the concept of behaviorism. In simple terms, this means that we are conditioned by our habits. In practical terms, it explains the divide between the few and far between elite instructors and college coaches.
To understand the application, let’s quickly review one of B.F. Skinner’s most important experiments; superstitions in the formation of behavior by pigeons. In this experiment, food was dispensed to pigeons at random intervals. Soon, according to Skinner, the pigeons began to associate whatever action they were doing at the time of the food being dispensed. According to Skinner, this conditioned that response and soon, they simply haphazardly repeated the action, failing to distinguish between cause and correlation (and in the meantime, looking really funny!).
Now, this is simply the best way to describe the actions of most every women’s college golf coach and too many instructors in America. They see something work, get positive feedback and then become conditioned to give the feedback, more and more, regardless of if it works (this is also why tips from your buddies never work!).
Go to a college event, particularly a women’s one, and you will see coaches running all over the place. Like the pigeons in the experiment, they have been conditioned into a codependent relationship with their players in which they believe their words and actions, can transform a round of golf. It is simply hilarious while being equally perturbing
In junior golf, it’s everywhere. Junior golf academies make a living selling parents that a hysterical coach and over-coaching are essential ingredients in your child’s success.
Let’s be clear, no one of any intellect has any real interest in golf — because it’s not that interesting. The people left, including most coaches and instructors, carve out a small fiefdom, usually on the corner of the range, where they use the illusion of competency to pray on people. In simple terms, they baffle people with the bullshit of pseudo-science that they can make you better, after just one more lesson.
The reality is that life is an impromptu game. The world of golf, business, and school have a message that the goal is being right. This, of course, is bad advice, being right in your own mind is easy, trying to push your ideas on others is hard. As a result, it is not surprising that the divorce rate among golf professionals and their instructors is 100 percent. The transfer rate among college players continues to soar, and too many courses have a guy peddling nefarious science to good people. In fact, we do at my course!
The question is, what impact does all this have on college-age and younger kids? At this point, we honestly don’t know. However, I am going to go out on a limb and say it isn’t good.
Soren Kierkegaard once quipped “I saw it for what it is, and I laughed.” The actions of most coaches and instructors in America are laughable. The problem is that I am not laughing because they are doing damage to kids, as well as driving good people away from this game.
The fact is that golfers don’t need more tips, secrets, or lessons. They need to be presented with a better understanding of the key elements of golf. With this understanding, they can then start to frame which information makes sense and what doesn’t. This will emancipate them and allow them to take charge of their own development.
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DrRob1963
Apr 12, 2018 at 8:34 am
You should add a “Can’t Putt” catagory
Grant
Apr 11, 2018 at 1:39 pm
Hey Rich,
Nice job on this! Wondering if you do this for the other majors as well?
Tal
Apr 9, 2018 at 3:21 am
Great job on this! You picked the winner again.
Woody
Apr 8, 2018 at 9:50 pm
Hey man, I give you props. You had Reed in your top 10..expert proved right.
Eddie Von Eric
Apr 4, 2018 at 10:58 am
Richies expert analysis is equivalent to that big deuce I dropped this morning in the IHOP bathroom.
Kris
Apr 3, 2018 at 9:10 pm
Great article. Fun to read.
Jack Nicholas
Apr 3, 2018 at 2:05 pm
RG, mathematical probabilities are scary, huh. You should sharpen your pin and just stick away and leave the real analysis to the brainier ones of the species. Go bet some of your benjamins on Woosnam, Mize et al and see how far you get.
kevin
Apr 3, 2018 at 1:08 pm
every stat i see has DJ in top 20 relative to approach shots within 175-200yds.
https://www.pgatour.com/stats/stat.337.html
Rich Hunt
Apr 3, 2018 at 6:26 pm
But, he’s also 207th from 200-225 yards:
https://www.pgatour.com/stats/stat.02358.html
J
Apr 3, 2018 at 11:57 am
Any of the field you see that can place top 10 or 20 outside of your top 24 to win?
Richie Hunt
Apr 4, 2018 at 10:18 am
I could see Dustin winning. If he can get his Red Zone play back to its old self, it can happen. Otherwise, he has to drive the ball ridiculously well and putt well to make up for it. It can happen, just a tall task. Kuchar is playing well right now and if the conditions start to favor him he could do something. Russell Henley is currently ranked #1 from the Red Zone. If the conditions work out for him, he could contend.
Cliff Hartman
Apr 3, 2018 at 10:15 am
I don’t see where you have accounted for Daniel Berger???
Charles Aspinal
Apr 3, 2018 at 1:04 pm
You beat me to it; I have same question.
Dan
Apr 3, 2018 at 7:15 am
Cameron Smith is a first timer right? He’s on the list of 24 though. Correct me if I’m wrong.
Rich Hunt
Apr 3, 2018 at 8:39 am
No, Smith played in 2016 and finished t-55th.
Undershooter30
Apr 2, 2018 at 11:26 pm
Reed doesn’t hit it high enough to win. He has the right to left ball flight but his shot height is very low.
Richie Hunt
Apr 8, 2018 at 7:02 pm
You were saying? 🙂
Trevor Heathers
Apr 2, 2018 at 9:37 pm
LOL that picture of Rich is from 20 years ago! Check out his video on Bebettergolf. He’s fat too.
Liam Pierce
Apr 3, 2018 at 3:05 pm
I know its hilarious. Guy is such an egomaniac that he has to post a picture of when he was young.
Liz Murray
Apr 2, 2018 at 8:22 pm
Love your predictions every year! My question is do you think Matsuyama‘s recent injury will affect his playing this weekend?
Rich Hunt
Apr 3, 2018 at 8:43 am
Thank you.
Tough to say as it’s difficult to predict if the injury and his game heals in time or not. That’s why I put him in the top-24, but not in the top-10.
Michaele11111
Apr 2, 2018 at 5:34 pm
Pretty lame stuff. Very full of holes.
Joel
Apr 2, 2018 at 9:45 pm
Boo, this comment. Just, booooooo.
This is a fun article every year.
nyguy
Apr 2, 2018 at 4:46 pm
The #1 Player in the world doesn’t have a chance?? lol ridiculous.
Jack Nicholas
Apr 3, 2018 at 1:11 pm
Number 1 never wins The Masters. Hasn’t ever happened so it’s mathematically less likely.
Kris
Apr 3, 2018 at 9:01 pm
Yes. He was disqualified because of his 200-225 accuracy this year. Lmao.
Robert
Apr 2, 2018 at 3:32 pm
Rich please elaborate as to how is Jason Day weak from 175 yards when he is T33 according to pgatour.com?
Richie Hunt
Apr 2, 2018 at 3:58 pm
I am not sure what metrics you are looking at. For instance, just take a look at his play from 175-200 yards from the fairway where he ranks 199th: https://www.pgatour.com/stats/stat.337.html
Generally, Day’s largest weakness in his game over the years has been from 150-200 yards. He uses his driving, short game play and great putting to overcome that. But that is a tall task to do at Augusta.
kevin
Apr 2, 2018 at 3:12 pm
Really enjoy this column. ignore the haters! Thanks Rich
Zac
Apr 2, 2018 at 1:24 pm
Since when is Kyle Stanley a short hitter?!?!
Nate
Apr 2, 2018 at 1:52 pm
never. dude’s a beast
Richie Hunt
Apr 2, 2018 at 4:01 pm
Kyle ranks 140th in driving distance and 114th in club speed. He altered his swing a few years ago to drop his club speed from 117 mph to about 112 mph. Still strikes it great, but the numbers indicate that unless the wind picks up, winning at Augusta isn’t likely. In fact, it’s supposed to rain at ANGC which would only favor the longer hitters.
Kris
Apr 3, 2018 at 9:04 pm
Rain helps the shorter players. See Johnson Z. And Weir M.
Makes the greens easier to hold. Which is a way bigger advantage than distance.
Richie Hunt
Apr 4, 2018 at 10:12 am
Zach didn’t have rain. He had record low temperatures and high wind gusts. Even the bombers had trouble going for the par-5’s in two shots when Zach won.
Generally on Tour, rain helps the bombers. But since there is no rough to really speak of at ANGC, I can see it helping shorter hitters a little. The time that Weir won, Weir was one of the very best in the world from inside 200 yards, so it wasn’t like he couldn’t play.
Matt
Apr 2, 2018 at 4:53 pm
My sediments exactly!
kevin
Apr 3, 2018 at 1:00 pm
He’s 140th in driving distance in 2018.
c’mon people…these stats aren’t that hard to look up.
Megabill
Apr 2, 2018 at 1:22 pm
How can you filter based on 175-225 performance? Doesn’t 100 to 175 have more influence on the winner?
Does the 175-225 stat really influence who becomes champion?
Also many filtered by that stat hit it so far that they rarely have to hit in from that distance.
Richie Hunt
Apr 2, 2018 at 4:03 pm
Shots from 100-175 yards do not have more ‘influence’ on the winner. And Tour players on average hit more shots per round from 150-200 yards than they do from 75-150 yards. It’s also not all about the frequency of shots. But it’s about the deviation in results. Combine those two at ANGC and that’s why you see players that perform well from there on top of the leaderboard.
brad
Apr 2, 2018 at 1:17 pm
Xander Schauffele will make the cut, and Daniel Berger will be in the mix.
Dan
Apr 2, 2018 at 12:06 pm
Not a perfect system because none is but would anyone seriously take the rest of the field over Richies 24?
I’d say DJ and Jason Day are tough ones but his list looks pretty good…. Fleetwood, Carera Bello, Noren maybe?
List looks good to me
Ryan Schmidlin
Apr 2, 2018 at 11:58 am
Where is Daniel Berger on this list????
Max
Apr 2, 2018 at 11:52 am
I mean, if you look at last year’s results, many of the guys you filtered out finished in the top 10 and were probably a lucky bounce/bad break away from being in contention. Let’s also not forget guys like Bernhard Langer and Soren Kjeldsen were in contention a few years ago.
I like the analysis, though, and the winner is more likely to be on your list than not.
Tal
Apr 2, 2018 at 6:49 pm
He’s not trying to predict the top 10, he’s trying to predict a single winner as as you say, they’re most likely on that list. I believe Rich has shortlisted the winner for the last 2 years, if I’m not mistaken.
Rich Hunt
Apr 2, 2018 at 11:01 pm
I’ve shortlisted the winner every year that I’ve done this going back to 2013.
juststeve
Apr 2, 2018 at 11:35 am
Very bold to rule out Dustin Johnson. Lets see if you’re right.
Kris
Apr 3, 2018 at 9:07 pm
Not really bold, actually. If he doesn’t win the tournament Rich is right.
Courtney (not female)
Apr 2, 2018 at 11:32 am
What a backwards way of thinking, thoughts on Tiger getting to tee it up?
dat
Apr 2, 2018 at 11:26 am
A fair assessment, but you forgot about whoever wins the par 3 contest automatically being out of the running based on past data.
Tim Braun
Apr 2, 2018 at 11:21 am
Jason Day would be the one that I would question not being on your list. With his driving ability and his top putting that outweighs the approach shot debate. I’m not saying he is going to win, but Gary Woodland or Cameron Smith??? Certainly we can make a substitution.
Robert
Apr 2, 2018 at 3:25 pm
I just checked pgatour.com and JD is T33 in approaches from 175-200. So I’d like to know how in the world is that weak?
Richie Hunt
Apr 2, 2018 at 4:05 pm
I do not know where you are getting that metric from. He’s 199th from 175-200 yards from the fairway:
https://www.pgatour.com/stats/stat.337.html
And he’s 168th from 200-225 yards from fairway:
https://www.pgatour.com/stats/stat.02358.html
Kobie Pieterse
Apr 3, 2018 at 9:35 am
Rich, not sure where you get your data from, I just checked again now, Jason Day was ranked T33 last week and T41 this week for 175-200 (https://www.pgatour.com/stats/stat.327.html)
Travis R
Apr 3, 2018 at 11:46 am
Your stat is only GIR, Richie’s takes into account proximity to the hole from that distance and score. So apparently Jason is hitting the green often from that distance, he just isnt getting it particularly close or making the birdie putt.
Ray Bennett
Apr 2, 2018 at 6:15 pm
Cam is currently the best Aussie in the field (on form), great chance in this field.
Mikec
Apr 2, 2018 at 11:21 am
No filter is perfect, but this system seems to be a very logical way to get down to a set of names to wager — from there it is old fashioned gut and handicapping based on form etc — but I like the approach of thinning the field
Oscar
Apr 2, 2018 at 11:20 am
what about Daniel Berger?
RG
Apr 2, 2018 at 11:03 am
You filtered out a guy (Danny Willett) whose already shown he can win. This shows the inherent problem in your prediction filter. Oh, and statistically speaking any of those players CAN win the Master’s and I reject the null hypothesis that you present.
Al Czervik
Apr 2, 2018 at 11:36 am
He is talking about the 2018 Masters. Dude is 296th in the world.
Al Czervik
Apr 2, 2018 at 11:41 am
The real problem is that his Improbable Past Champions filter didn’t catch him. I would be far more shocked if Willett made a run than say Cabrera or even Langer.
Josh
Apr 2, 2018 at 5:19 pm
I made a lot of money on Danny Willett two years ago, but I wouldn’t bet one red cent that he’ll ever win another Masters. Dude was a fluke who only won cause Jordan blew it. For the record I also had a stake in Spieth so it was a good weekend.