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Shaft flex is one of those topics that can be quite confusing for many golfers. It seems that there are as many opinions on the topic as there are different shafts. Does shaft flex really matter? We wanted to approach the question a little bit differently.

In this video, we explain how the shaft in your driver can either be helping or hurting one key element of your drives.

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Athletic Motion Golf is a collaboration of four of golf's brightest and most talented instructors who came together with the sole purpose of supplying golfers the very best information and strategies to lower their scores. At AMG, we're bringing fact-based instruction that's backed by research and proven at the highest levels on the PGA Tour straight to golfers through our website. Our resources will help you "clear the fog" in your game and understand the essentials of playing great golf.

36 Comments

36 Comments

  1. Dr. Golf

    Feb 13, 2018 at 7:00 pm

    Seven Dreams $1200 autoclave cured driver shafts are superior to the oven cured shafts because they suck out the excessive epoxy plastic that causes graphite shafts to be floppy and soggy in tip dynamic action and recovery.
    Steel shafts are still the gold standard for shaft consistency. Soon the debates about current graphite shafts will be moot as they are made obsolete by Seven Dreams graphite shafts.

  2. Adam

    Feb 12, 2018 at 1:17 pm

    A little defined problem has to do with the radial consistency of a shaft. I would never use one that varies more than 1% hard to soft plane. Yet, I have wondered, even if I position the head so that it moves exactly along the soft plane at impact, it moved through other planes on its way to impact. So, the head is twisting and turning in odd ways before impact. That can’t be good.

    • AMG

      Feb 12, 2018 at 8:08 pm

      You’re right on the money, it’s not bending in a consistent plane. Not comforting, lol

    • Dr. Golf

      Feb 13, 2018 at 6:53 pm

      The radial consistency of steel shafts is uniform, whereas it’s all over the place for floppy soggy graphite shafts…. all because of the excessive epoxy plastic and arbitrary layering that compromises radial action.
      $1200 Seven Dreams autoclave cured graphite shafts has superior radial consistency when compare to all the oven-cured shafts on the market now.

  3. Josh

    Feb 12, 2018 at 12:50 pm

    The video achieved what it was meant to. It showed us that the shaft is not straight at impact, and flex has an effect on speed. We learned that having the right flex matters. The question posed, “Does shaft flex make a difference?” was answered. Thank you AMG.

  4. Joro

    Feb 12, 2018 at 12:46 pm

    Having been in this business for over 60 yrs as a player, club maker and repairman, plus teaching I have found out no, not as much as the ego thinks.. Weight, flex, and length are not that much, of course the difference tween xx and R or reg.. is there, but between X and S, not much and of course the heavier the stiffer also. Knowing shafts, what the do and why is complicated, but not that difficult.

    Now Graphite is a different matter because there are not standards, one makers reg flex is another makers s and it has to be tried to be sure you get what you want. Weight is also a bug factor that too light can be too fast and hard to control. So with Graphite you have to careful and get fitted, although the shaft you hit well may not be the same they put in your clubs. Like I said, it varies and not as consistent as steel, and that is just part of it.

    • AMG

      Feb 12, 2018 at 7:14 pm

      Great points, Joro. Always good to leave the fitting with what you just hit the best.

  5. joe virdone

    Feb 12, 2018 at 11:59 am

    What were the clubhead speeds for the reg, stuff and X stiff demos…thanks.

  6. Reeves

    Feb 12, 2018 at 1:03 am

    I find at my level (15) that shaft flex can make a lot of difference..went from stiff metal iron shafts to regular iron shaft (same brand on Ping irons) can now get 4 and 5 irons up in the air…also with the driver I went from a regular graphite shaft to a tour stiff (Wilson Triton driver) and picked up 20 yards and a small draw where the regular shaft was a constant baby fade….

  7. TeeBone

    Feb 10, 2018 at 11:24 am

    I would like to have seen the final clubhead speed at impact numbers. There is other research that found that shaft flex had no significant impact on clubhead speed. Isn’t it possible to have different kick speeds with the same total speed?

    • AMG

      Feb 10, 2018 at 4:10 pm

      We posted the final head speeds in the comments section of the video. I don’t recall exactly what they were, but they’re in the comments if you’d like to see them.

      Do you have a link you could share for that research? Would like to see how they did their tests.

      I don’t think it would be possible to only vary kick speed while keeping total head speed the same. It would be possible to do if the other variables changed. BUT… we haven’t tested it, just a hunch.

      • TeeBone

        Feb 11, 2018 at 11:37 am

        Sasho MacKenzie has several papers on this. See also Milne and Davis. And David Williams’ book. And probably others as well.

  8. CB

    Feb 10, 2018 at 9:13 am

    Really informative stuff! Very clearly explained and simplified for anybody to understand. Thank you very much!

  9. JE

    Feb 10, 2018 at 6:00 am

    Damn interesting stuff. Thank you!

  10. Chris

    Feb 9, 2018 at 10:28 pm

    If I knew nothing about golf and was trying to learn, this video would tell me that if I wanted to not lose Club Head speed with my 86mph driver swing, I need an x flex shaft.

  11. OB

    Feb 9, 2018 at 3:44 pm

    True Temper scientist-engineers determined three distinct shaft loading profiles. Double peak, single peak and ramp-up swing-shaft loading. TT designed 5-iron and driver devices that monitored the stresses in the shaft, called ShaftLab. It worked well until one of the many internal load sensors failed and it malfunctioned. It was discontinued.
    Nevertheless, ShaftLab defined swing loading profiles and shaft recommendations. What is shown in the video is slightly visually misleading because what we see as “deflection” is actually shaft tip droop and tip torque.
    Face-on “dead straight” does not show full shaft droop and torque twist. What we see is the dynamic alignment of the shaft axis to the clubhead eccentric sweet spot location.
    Shaft stiffness and droop is a function of swing speed. The clubhead “whipsnaps” through final release and into impact. If your swing speed is too low and your shaft is too stiff, it won’t droop and the reaction forces into your hands and arms are excessive.
    95% of golfers worldwide should be playing a woman’s A-flex shaft to get adequate droop and whipsnap… something most golfers never feel because their swing isn’t synchronized to the dynamic action of the shaft tip section and clubhead.
    It’s also why Tour and LD players have problems with inconsistent soggy floppy epoxy plastic graphite shafts. Steel shafts have the most consistent flex dynamics.

    • AMG

      Feb 9, 2018 at 4:39 pm

      GEARS captures both shaft deflection and droop separately. We show both sets of numbers for each shaft looked at in the video. These are not tip numbers, but overall numbers from the length of the shaft. But because the tip is the softest section of the shaft, more movement happens the closer down the shaft you look.

      The purpose of this video was not to show anything other than shafts do not all produce the same results, and that shafts are not straight at impact.

      If you really want to take a deep dive into all things deflection, drooping, and torque you would love the info from Fujikura’s Enso system. There is nothing else out there like it.

    • george

      Feb 10, 2018 at 1:50 pm

      When then there is a golf shaft for irons and woods that eliminates droop, twist
      and kick at impact; why would we ask golfers to synchronize their golf swings to each shaft in their bag?

      More droop, more twist and more kick make it impossible to time a solid impact on sweet spot, consistently.
      When there isn’t a solid impact and ball flight is erratic, should the golfer change his swing or change his shaft or clubhead?
      Its no wonder so many golfers quit this game.

      Moe Norman and Ben Hogan would not play with ‘licorice’ sticks. No one should.

  12. farmer

    Feb 9, 2018 at 2:39 pm

    There is no baseline information, other than the LD swing. Would be more informative if it was done on an Iron Byron, and captioned by various SS’s. Does not take into account the different flex patterns in shafts. So, nicely produced, but worthless.

    • AMG

      Feb 9, 2018 at 4:47 pm

      The problem for us using Iron Byron type robotics is that we work with real golfers and are much more interested in the human variances/influences on equipment. The OEM’s do a great job going down the robot testing road, we’re more interested in how the equipment works in the hands of a wide skill range of actual golfers.

      We didn’t include the baseline info because it really wasn’t necessary to answer the questions of does shaft flex make a difference and are shafts straight at impact.

  13. Steg0726

    Feb 9, 2018 at 12:13 pm

    Knowing the swing speeds and the other variables that involve the shaft loading and unloading needs to be present. Maybe adding info from a GC quad or even mizuno shaft optimizer would give some outlook on swing tendencies. Adding shaft specs as well.

    • AMG

      Feb 9, 2018 at 4:52 pm

      That information would absolutely be necessary to match a golfer to an optimally fit shaft. The questions we wanted to answer with this short video were way less ambitious.

      Is there anything specifically regarding shafts that you’d like to see looked at?

      • george

        Feb 10, 2018 at 11:43 am

        I would like to see how much each type of shaft decelerates at impact (Newtons Third Law)

  14. Jeff

    Feb 9, 2018 at 11:03 am

    How much does the golfer/ swing speed etc affect the results. Is the golfer that is swinging the x flex shaft more efficient??
    Just curious how the golfer affected the results

    • Jack

      Feb 9, 2018 at 11:20 am

      different golfers, good/bad techniques, hard to come away with anything from this video

      • Skip

        Feb 9, 2018 at 11:53 am

        agreed. there’s too many variables to really come away with anything definitive. Is there an ideal reaction of the shaft? Watching this, this long drive guy should be playing the X-Flex instead of the XX?

        • george

          Feb 9, 2018 at 3:32 pm

          to eliminate some variables such as droop, kick, twist and gear effect
          at the same time, try /test Nunchuk shafts

          video at, nventix.com

        • AMG

          Feb 9, 2018 at 5:10 pm

          I doubt he’d be happy playing the X flex.

          We weren’t attempting for optimally match shafts to swings – you’re right, the number of variables for that would be staggering. Instead, we wanted to show how shafts can and do perform differently (many believe they don’t) and that shafts are not straight rigid rods at impact.

          Most highly informed golfers are not aware of how much a shaft can or does add/reduces speed to the overall motion. We thought that would be interesting to show as well.

      • Dan

        Feb 9, 2018 at 4:59 pm

        Are we to assume it was the same person with each shaft? If so then the video makes sense, if not complete nonsense.

    • AMG

      Feb 9, 2018 at 5:02 pm

      Very difficult to define efficient, but all 4 golfers are excellent players in their own class of skill level.

      The golfer has a huge affect on any non-robot shaft testing. We have seen swing speeds from high 80’s all the way up produce both positive and negative kick speeds.

      It’s interesting watching golfers respond to different shafts with strong feelings of love/hate, but with next to no fluctuations in the actual data. A “good feeling” shaft often trumps everything.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open betting preview

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As the Florida swing comes to an end, the PGA Tour makes its way to Houston to play the Texas Children’s Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course.

This will be the fourth year that Memorial Park Golf Course will serve as the tournament host. The event did not take place in 2023, but the course hosted the event in 2020, 2021 and 2022.

Memorial Park is a par-70 layout measuring 7,432 yards and features Bermudagrass greens. Historically, the main defense for the course has been thick rough along the fairways and tightly mown runoff areas around the greens. Memorial Park has a unique setup that features three Par 5’s and five Par 3’s.

The field will consist of 132 players, with the top 65 and ties making the cut. There are some big names making the trip to Houston, including Scottie Scheffler, Wyndham Clark, Tony Finau, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala.

Past Winners at Memorial Park

  • 2022: Tony Finau (-16)
  • 2021: Jason Kokrak (-10)
  • 2020: Carlos Ortiz (-13)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Memorial Park

Let’s take a look at several metrics for Memorial Park to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds:

Strokes Gained: Approach

Memorial Park is a pretty tough golf course. Golfers are penalized for missing greens and face some difficult up and downs to save par. Approach will be key.

Total Strokes Gained: Approach per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.30)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.26)
  3. Keith Mitchell (+0.97) 
  4. Tony Finau (+0.92)
  5. Jake Knapp (+0.84)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Memorial Park is a long golf course with rough that can be penal. Therefore, a combination of distance and accuracy is the best metric.

Total Strokes Gained: Off the Tee per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+0.94)
  2. Kevin Dougherty (+0.93)
  3. Cameron Champ (+0.86)
  4. Rafael Campos (+0.84)
  5. Si Woo Kim (+0.70)

Strokes Gained Putting: Bermudagrass + Fast

The Bermudagrass greens played fairly fast the past few years in Houston. Jason Kokrak gained 8.7 strokes putting on his way to victory in 2021 and Tony Finau gained in 7.8 in 2022.

Total Strokes Gained Putting (Bermudagrass) per round past 24 rounds (min. 8 rounds):

  1. Adam Svensson (+1.27)
  2. Harry Hall (+1.01)
  3. Martin Trainer (+0.94)
  4. Taylor Montgomery (+0.88)
  5. S.H. Kim (+0.86)

Strokes Gained: Around the Green

With firm and undulating putting surfaces, holding the green on approach shots may prove to be a challenge. Memorial Park has many tightly mowed runoff areas, so golfers will have challenging up-and-down’s around the greens. Carlos Ortiz gained 5.7 strokes around the green on the way to victory in 2020.

Total Strokes Gained: Around the Green per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Mackenzie Hughes (+0.76)
  2. S.H. Kim (+0.68)
  3. Scottie Scheffler (+0.64)
  4. Jorge Campillo (+0.62)
  5. Jason Day (+0.60)

Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult

Memorial Park is a long and difficult golf course. This statistic will incorporate players who’ve had success on these types of tracks in the past. 

Total Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.45)
  2. Ben Griffin (+1.75)
  3. Will Zalatoris (+1.73)
  4. Ben Taylor (+1.53)
  5. Tony Finau (+1.42)

Course History

Here are the players who have performed the most consistently at Memorial Park. 

Strokes Gained Total at Memorial Park past 12 rounds:

  1. Tyson Alexander (+3.65)
  2. Ben Taylor (+3.40)
  3. Tony Finau (+2.37)
  4. Joel Dahmen (+2.25)
  5. Patton Kizzire (+2.16)

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (24%) SG: OTT (24%); SG: Putting Bermudagrass/Fast (13%); SG: Long and Difficult (13%); SG: ARG (13%) and Course History (13%)

  1. Scottie Scheffler
  2. Wyndham Clark
  3. Tony Finau
  4. Joel Dahmen
  5. Stephan Jaeger 
  6. Aaron Rai
  7. Sahith Theegala
  8. Keith Mitchell 
  9. Jhonnatan Vegas
  10. Jason Day
  11. Kurt Kitayama
  12. Alex Noren
  13. Will Zalatoris
  14. Si Woo Kim
  15. Adam Long

2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open Picks

Will Zalatoris +2000 (Caesars)

Scottie Scheffler will undoubtedly be difficult to beat this week, so I’m starting my card with someone who I believe has the talent to beat him if he doesn’t have his best stuff.

Will Zalatoris missed the cut at the PLAYERS, but still managed to gain strokes on approach while doing so. In an unpredictable event with extreme variance, I don’t believe it would be wise to discount Zalatoris based on that performance. Prior to The PLAYERS, the 27-year-old finished T13, T2 and T4 in his previous three starts.

Zalatoris plays his best golf on long and difficult golf courses. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the category, but the eye test also tells a similar story. He’s contended at major championships and elevated events in the best of fields with tough scoring conditions.  The Texas resident should be a perfect fit at Memorial Park Golf Club.

Alex Noren +4500 (FanDuel)

Alex Noren has been quietly playing some of his best golf of the last half decade this season. The 41-year-old is coming off back-to-back top-20 finishes in Florida including a T9 at The PLAYERS in his most recent start.

In his past 24 rounds, Noren ranks 21st in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 30th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, 25th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses and 21st in Strokes Gained: Putting on fast Bermudagrass greens.

In addition to his strong recent play, the Swede also has played well at Memorial Park. In 2022, Noren finished T4 at the event, gaining 2.2 strokes off the tee and 7.0 strokes on approach for the week. In his two starts at the course, he’s gained an average of .6 strokes per round on the field, indicating he is comfortable on these greens.

Noren has been due for a win for what feels like an eternity, but Memorial Park may be the course that suits him well enough for him to finally get his elusive first PGA Tour victory.

Mackenzie Hughes +8000 (FanDuel)

Mackenzie Hughes found himself deep into contention at last week’s Valspar Championship before faltering late and finishing in a tie for 3rd place. While he would have loved to win the event, it’s hard to see the performance as anything other than an overwhelming positive sign for the Canadian.

Hughes has played great golf at Memorial Park in the past. He finished T7 in 2020, T29 in 2021 and T16 in 2022. The course fit seems to be quite strong for Hughes. He’s added distance off the tee in the past year or and ranks 8th in the field for apex height, which will be a key factor when hitting into Memorial Park’s elevated greens with steep run-off areas.

In his past 24 rounds, Hughes is the best player in the field in Strokes Gained: Around the Greens. The ability to scramble at this course will be extremely important. I believe Hughes can build off of his strong finish last week and contend once again to cement himself as a President’s Cup consideration.

Akshay Bhatia +8000 (FanDuel)

Akshay Bhatia played well last week at the Valspar and seemed to be in total control of his golf ball. He finished in a tie for 17th and shot an impressive -3 on a difficult Sunday. After struggling Thursday, Akshay shot 68-70-68 in his next three rounds.

Thus far, Bhatia has played better at easier courses, but his success at Copperhead may be due to his game maturing. The 22-year-old has enormous potential and the raw talent to be one of the best players in the world when he figures it all out.

Bhatia is a high upside play with superstar qualities and may just take the leap forward to the next stage of his career in the coming months.

Cameron Champ +12000 (FanDuel)

Cameron Champ is a player I often target in the outright betting market due to his “boom-or-bust” nature. It’s hard to think of a player in recent history with three PGA Tour wins who’s been as inconsistent as Champ has over the course of his career.

Despite the erratic play, Cam Champ simply knows how to win. He’s won in 2018, 2019 and 2021, so I feel he’s due for a win at some point this season. The former Texas A&M product should be comfortable in Texas and last week he showed us that his game is in a pretty decent spot.

Over his past 24 rounds, Champ ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 30th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses. Given his ability to spike at any given time, Memorial Park is a good golf course to target Champ on at triple digit odds.

Robert MacIntyre +12000 (FanDuel)

The challenge this week is finding players who can possibly beat Scottie Scheffler while also not dumping an enormous amount of money into an event that has a player at the top that looks extremely dangerous. Enter McIntyre, who’s another boom-or-bust type player who has the ceiling to compete with anyone when his game is clicking on all cylinders.

In his past 24 rounds, MacIntyre ranks 16th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 17th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and 10th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses.

MacIntyre’s PGA Tour season has gotten off to a slow start, but he finished T6 in Mexico, which is a course where players will hit driver on the majority of their tee shots, which is what we will see at Memorial Park. Texas can also get quite windy, which should suit MacIntyre. Last July, the Scot went toe to toe with Rory McIlroy at the Scottish Open before a narrow defeat. It would take a similar heroic effort to compete with Scheffler this year in Houston.

Ryan Moore +15000 (FanDuel)

Ryan Moore’s iron play has been absolutely unconscious over his past few starts. At The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field, he gained 6.1 strokes on approach and last week at Copperhead, he gained 9.0 strokes on approach.

It’s been a rough handful of years on Tour for the 41-year-old, but he is still a five-time winner on the PGA Tour who’s young enough for a career resurgence. Moore has chronic deterioration in a costovertebral joint that connects the rib to the spine, but has been getting more consistent of late, which is hopefully a sign that he is getting healthy.

Veterans have been contending in 2024 and I believe taking a flier on a proven Tour play who’s shown signs of life is a wise move at Memorial Park.

 

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Why the race to get better at golf might be doing more harm than good

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B.F. Skinner was one of the most important psychologists of the 20th century, developing the foundation of the development of reinforcement, and in doing so, creating the concept of behaviorism. In simple terms, this means that we are conditioned by our habits. In practical terms, it explains the divide between the few and far between elite instructors and college coaches.

To understand the application, let’s quickly review one of B.F. Skinner’s most important experiments; superstitions in the formation of behavior by pigeons. In this experiment, food was dispensed to pigeons at random intervals. Soon, according to Skinner, the pigeons began to associate whatever action they were doing at the time of the food being dispensed. According to Skinner, this conditioned that response and soon, they simply haphazardly repeated the action, failing to distinguish between cause and correlation (and in the meantime, looking really funny!).

Now, this is simply the best way to describe the actions of most every women’s college golf coach and too many instructors in America. They see something work, get positive feedback and then become conditioned to give the feedback, more and more, regardless of if it works (this is also why tips from your buddies never work!).

Go to a college event, particularly a women’s one, and you will see coaches running all over the place. Like the pigeons in the experiment, they have been conditioned into a codependent relationship with their players in which they believe their words and actions, can transform a round of golf. It is simply hilarious while being equally perturbing

In junior golf, it’s everywhere. Junior golf academies make a living selling parents that a hysterical coach and over-coaching are essential ingredients in your child’s success.

Let’s be clear, no one of any intellect has any real interest in golf — because it’s not that interesting. The people left, including most coaches and instructors, carve out a small fiefdom, usually on the corner of the range, where they use the illusion of competency to pray on people. In simple terms, they baffle people with the bullshit of pseudo-science that they can make you better, after just one more lesson.

The reality is that life is an impromptu game. The world of golf, business, and school have a message that the goal is being right. This, of course, is bad advice, being right in your own mind is easy, trying to push your ideas on others is hard. As a result, it is not surprising that the divorce rate among golf professionals and their instructors is 100 percent. The transfer rate among college players continues to soar, and too many courses have a guy peddling nefarious science to good people. In fact, we do at my course!

The question is, what impact does all this have on college-age and younger kids? At this point, we honestly don’t know. However, I am going to go out on a limb and say it isn’t good.

Soren Kierkegaard once quipped “I saw it for what it is, and I laughed.” The actions of most coaches and instructors in America are laughable. The problem is that I am not laughing because they are doing damage to kids, as well as driving good people away from this game.

The fact is that golfers don’t need more tips, secrets, or lessons. They need to be presented with a better understanding of the key elements of golf. With this understanding, they can then start to frame which information makes sense and what doesn’t. This will emancipate them and allow them to take charge of their own development.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Valspar Championship betting preview: Elite ballstrikers to thrive at Copperhead

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The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2024 Valspar Championship.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermudagrass greens overseeded with POA. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 16, 17 and 18 — also known as the “Snake Pit” — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.

The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. The field this week is solid and is a major improvement over last year’s field that felt the impact of players skipping due to a handful of “signature events” in a short span of time. 

Past Winners at Valspar Championship

  • 2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
  • 2022: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
  • 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
  • 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
  • 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
  • 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Copperhead

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can’t be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)

  1. Tony Finau (+.90)
  2. Nick Taylor (+.81)
  3. Justin Thomas (+.77)
  4. Greyson Sigg (+.69)
  5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+.67)

2. Good Drive %

The long hitters can be a bit limited here due to the tree-lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important, but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.

Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+91.3%) 
  2. Zach Johnson (+91.1%)
  3. Sam Ryder (+90.5%)
  4. Ryan Moore (+90.4%)
  5. Aaron Rai (+89.7%)

3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1.32)
  2. Keith Mitchell (+1.29)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.24)
  4. Cameron Young (+1.17) 
  5. Doug Ghim (+.95)

4. Bogey Avoidance

With the conditions likely to be difficult, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, oftentimes the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.

Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.

Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+9.0)
  2. Xander Schauffele (+9.3)
  3. Austin Cook (+9.7) 
  4. Chesson Hadley (+10.0)
  5. Greyson Sigg (+10.2)

5. Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions

Conditions will be tough this week at Copperhead. I am looking for golfers who can rise to the occasion if the course plays as difficult as it has in the past.

Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1,71) 
  2. Min Woo Lee (+1.39)
  3. Cameron Young (+1.27)
  4. Jordan Spieth (+1.08)
  5. Justin Suh (+.94)

6. Course History

That statistic will tell us which players have played well at Copperhead in the past.

Course History Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+3.75) 
  2. Sam Burns (+2.49)
  3. Davis Riley (+2.33)
  4. Matt NeSmith (+2.22)
  5. Jordan Spieth (+2.04)

The Valspar Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Good Drive % (15%), SG: BS (20%), Bogeys Avoided (13%), Course History (13%) Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions (12%).

  1. Xander Schauffele
  2. Doug Ghim
  3. Victor Perez
  4. Greyson Sigg
  5. Ryan Moore
  6. Tony Finau
  7. Justin Thomas
  8. Sam Ryder
  9. Sam Burns
  10. Lucas Glover

2024 Valspar Championship Picks

Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)

Justin Thomas will be disappointed with his finish at last week’s PLAYERS Championship, as the past champion missed the cut despite being in some decent form heading into the event. Despite the missed cut, JT hit the ball really well. In his two rounds, the two-time major champion led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach per round.

Thomas has been up and down this season. He’s missed the cut in two “signature events” but also has finishes of T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T6 at the Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am and T3 at the American Express. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in the field.

Thomas loves Copperhead. In his last three tries at the course, he’s finished T13, T3 and T10. Thomas would have loved to get a win at a big event early in the season, but avoidable mistakes and a balky putter have cost him dearly. I believe a trip to a course he loves in a field he should be able to capitalize on is the right recipe for JT to right the ship.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (FanDuel)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is playing spectacular golf in the 2024 season. He finished 2nd at the American Express, T20 at Pebble Beach and T24 at the Genesis Invitational before finishing T13 at last week’s PLAYERS Championship.

In his past 24 rounds, the South African ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 26th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. Bezuidenhout managed to work his way around TPC Sawgrass last week with minimal damage. He only made five bogeys in the entire week, which is a great sign heading into a difficult Copperhead this week.

Bezuidenhout is winless in his PGA Tour career, but certainly has the talent to win on Tour. His recent iron play tells me that this week could be a breakthrough for the 35-year-old who has eyes on the President’s Cup.

Doug Ghim +8000 (FanDuel)

Doug Ghim has finished in the top-16 of his past five starts. Most recently, Ghim finished T16 at The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field.

In his past 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 5th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. In terms of his fit for Copperhead, the 27-year-old ranks 12th in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions, making him a great fit for the course.

Ghim has yet to win on Tour, but at one point he was the top ranked Amateur golfer in the world and played in the 2017 Arnold Palmer Cup and 2017 Walker Cup. He then won the Ben Hogan award for the best male college golfer in 2018. He certainly has the talent, and there are signals aplenty that his talent in ready to take him to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour.

Sepp Straka +8000 (BetRivers)

Sepp Straka is a player who’s shown he has the type of game that can translate to a difficult Florida golf course. The former Presidents Cup participant won the 2022 Honda Classic in tough conditions and should thrive with a similar test at Copperhead.

It’s been a slow 2024 for Straka, but his performance last week at the PLAYERS Championship surely provides some optimism. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach as well as 1.88 strokes off the tee. The tee-to-green game Straka showed on a course with plenty of danger demonstrates that he can stay in control of his golf ball this week.

It’s possible that the strong performance last week was an outlier, but I’m willing to bet on a proven winner in a weaker field at a great number.

Victor Perez +12000 (FanDuel)

Victor Perez is no stranger to success in professional golf. The Frenchman has three DP World Tour wins including a Rolex Series event. He won the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, as well as the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which are some big events.

Perez earned his PGA Tour card this season and enters the week playing some fantastic golf. He finished in a tie for 16th in Florida at the Cognizant Classic and then tied for third in his most recent start at the Puerto Rico Open.

In his past 24 rounds in the field, Perez ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 1oth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Good Drive % and 15th in Bogey Avoidance.

Perez comes in as a perfect fit for Copperhead and offers serious value at triple-digit odds.

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