Opinion & Analysis

The Search For Hogan’s Secret

Published

6 years ago

Dec 22, 2017

I love a good mystery. I love reading them, watching them and even writing them in my spare time. Many of the most wildly popular literary works involve the quest to solve history’s mysteries or the search for lost treasure, and cinematic forays depicting these adventures are often blockbusters. When it comes to history’s biggest mysteries, certain ones have been sought after more fervently, by more men, than almost all others. The Ark of the Covenant comes to mind, and The Holy Grail is an obvious contender. But amongst my ilk, the search for Ben Hogan’s Secret is undoubtedly foremost among the game’s modern mysteries. Enough passion, intrigue and pursuit surround all of these things that I’m not really sure what is most shocking: that none of them has actually been found, or that, unlike The Ark and The Grail, a movie hasn’t (yet) been made about The Search for Hogan’s Secret.

Now before I begin in earnest, I should concede that I’m treading dangerous waters here. A cottage industry has evolved around Hogan’s Secret, with no less than a gazillion swing zealots claiming to have uncovered it everywhere from in an abandoned locker at Riviera to in the last will and testament of a guy who used to pick the range at Fort Worth Country Club back in the 1950’s. Among those teaching, pondering, and pontificating on the mysteries of the golf swing, there are hordes of “Hoganophiles” invested in ways that span from emotionally to professionally to financially in their claims to Hogan’s treasure. And anyone else coming along making claims even slightly at odds with their own conclusions can invite swift and vehement reactions: calls of blasphemy, incompetence or worse. But I forge on, because if I can shed even a little light upon this on-going investigation, I’ll risk the abuse. All in the name of the greater good of the game.

So back to Hogan. For starters, his playing record inspires understandable awe. And when you consider the fact that he won more than half his majors after a near fatal and crippling car accident that prohibited him from playing in more than a half-dozen events a year for the remainder of his career, you begin to understand why he is so revered. In 1953, having won the Masters, U.S. Open and Open Championship, Hogan very possibly could have been the only person to have completed the modern Grand Slam if the Open and PGA championships hadn’t had conflicting schedules that year. And while he only won nine majors (compared to Nicklaus’ 18 and Woods’ 14), he won those nine majors in only sixteen starts between 1946 and 1953. He also only finished out of the top-10 once. Had the PGA not still been match play during his competitive career, requiring winners to play 36 holes in a day (something Hogan couldn’t do after his accident) it’s very likely he would have added a few more majors to his total.

In truth, it’s unsurprising that a stoic man like Hogan, with a nickname like The Hawk and a record such as his would leave behind a legend that went beyond his mere exploits on the links. It was in Life Magazine back in the 1950’s that Hogan first claimed to have discovered his elusive Secret. The change that allowed the struggling journeyman pro to harness his wayward hook, a shot that almost drove him from the tour, and go on an almost unprecedented streak of tournament wins that would ultimately see him hailed as one of the best players in history a decade later. And in the process that success, combined with his explanations for it in the years to come, would inspire decades of debate.

Now, like most golf professionals, I have my opinions about what I like to see in a good golf swing and the elements that are crucial to obtain a modicum of success. But I’m self-aware enough to understand that, as I said, these are to a degree just my opinions. One of the most beautiful things about the golf swing is that it’s short on absolutes. The number of different looking golf swings that have tasted major success in the history of sport is near uncountable. Tiger Woods alone won major championships with three very different swings and PGA Tour events with four, and still an armada of us who claim to know a thing or two about the motion debate incessantly about which one was best. If swings the likes of Jim Furyk, John Daly, Ray Floyd, Jim Thorpe, Lee Trevino, Arnold Palmer and Miller Barber can win at the highest level, it should truly give hope to the most unorthodox among us — while giving pause to the rest of us who say you have to do it a certain way if you want to be any good.

That being said (and understood), I’m as guilty as the next guy who coaches competitive golfers for a living of getting sucked into searching for Hogan’s buried treasure. I suppose it’s understandable seeing as how he cryptically mentioned at one point that it could be found in the dirt somewhere, but I digress. You see, whether it was in that Life article, various interviews, his book Power Golf, or the Immortal Five Lessons, Hogan actually left us some very detailed clues as to what he felt was most important when it came to swinging a golf club. But it’s what Hogan supposedly didn’t say that left the treasure hunters among us still looking under the couch cushions for that missing remote. Like a master chef who holds back one key ingredient when offering up the recipe of a famous dish, one that will keep it from ever being truly replicated by scores of imitators, we believe Hogan withheld something from the golfing masses. Something he would ultimately take with him to his grave.

Now, from my point of view, I think Hogan was actually a bit of a shy man, and one who didn’t mind remaining a bit of a mystery. It only added to his intimidation factor when it came to competition, and ultimately elevated the Hogan mystique. And a bit of intrigue as it related to his historic success wasn’t an all bad thing when it came to marketing the golf clubs and balls that Hogan occupied most of his post tournament golf years doing. I also believe that Old Ben wasn’t immune to possibly having a quiet laugh at all of our expense. Could it be that all that talk of the pronation of the wrists, the short left thumb, or hitting balls left-handed as a youngster was nothing more than a red herring? Something planted in the public consciousness by a man who wanted to throw us all off the scent? Hogan wouldn’t have been the first mystical golf guru to have done so, nor would he be the last, but there is one other thing to consider.

Is it possible that Hogan’s real secret was something he wasn’t himself quite aware he was actually doing? It is quite possible that the changes in grip, wrist position, or any of the other things Hogan claimed were his Secret might possibly have served as a distraction in and of themselves. Something that may have in fact aided, or complemented, what he was doing in this swing, but something that in a technical sense would have been actually quite inconsequential if he wasn’t already doing something else, something pretty much every other legendary striker of the ball has done as well.

In the 1960’s Hogan recorded a video for Shell’s Wonderful World of Golf in which he explained what he did in his golf swing. In it he described how he initiated the first move down with his lower body. This is what Hogan felt that he did, and if you look at slow-motion video of his swing you can certainly see that he does start moving his hips first, almost before he completes his backswing on some clubs. In fact, if you look at Hogan swinging a driver you can actually see the clubhead still moving backward as he initiates his hip turn in the forward swing.

The thing that Hogan didn’t articulate in the video, though, a thing he might possibly have not even been consciously aware of, was the reason he could initiate the forward swing with his lower body as much as he did was how low and connected his right elbow was to his right hip, and how it remained underneath the left arm not just to, but through impact. This is what nearly every great ball-striker does, including Woods, Nicklaus, Byron Nelson, Bobby Jones and even that legendary savant so revered by golf swing geeks, the quirky Canadian Moe Norman.

All those great golfers arrived in that position by various methods, but they ended up there just the same — like London cabbies who might not take the GPS recommended route to get you to Heathrow, but they get you there on time just the same. And whether it was Hogan, Nelson, Nicklaus, or Norman, when you combined that position with a little lateral hip slide just prior to impact, it allowed them to deliver the face of the club to the back of the ball with very little release of the hands into the hitting area. In this way, the club is squared not so much through hand or forearm rotation, but by the turn of the body, a reality illustrated by the fact that every great ball-striker’s hips and shoulders are about half-way turned to the target at impact.

Now I know the technocrats out there will decry this as an over-simplification of what Hogan and others have done, and I get that, but I do so for a few reasons. One, to point out that there are common similarities amongst great players. Two, to give an idea about which area of the swing is possibly most important to focus on if you feel you need to make a change. And three, to highlight the fact that despite those similarities, there is no one way to get there, as long as you ultimately do.

Hogan, whether it was intentional or not, wasn’t the first professional to articulate something about his golf swing that was a bit misleading. And the real problem with most golfers (and instructors) taking Hogan’s advice at whole cloth is that most players who attempt to initiate the forward swing with the lower body have arms so disconnected from their lower bodies that it causes them to come over the top and hit the ball form the outside, exactly the opposite of what Hogan claims it will do. You see, there’s this pesky little thing called your spine that connects your arms and shoulders to your hips. Most golfers, especially those of advancing age, aren’t nearly as flexible as the modern athlete. When they run out of available body turn in the backswing, they lift the club into position the rest of the way. This disconnects the upper and lower body, setting them up to have the upper body stuck behind the lower because the arms hands and shoulders can only resist so much of that hip turn before they cry uncle and follow along.

Having your arms connected to the lower body through the impact area not only allows you to strike the ball more directly from the inside, but allows you to square the club through body rotation. When the hips are too far in front of the upper body, the lower body often begins to move up and out of the hitting area before the club is in position to strike the ball. And as you get farther and farther from the ball and/or the club gets stuck open due to the arms and hands getting left behind, it forces you to cast or flip the club at the ball through impact in order to square it. This move sacrifices both power and consistency.

So what do we do? First and foremost, acquiring the necessary flexibility to complete a backswing by turning isn’t a bad place to start regardless of your age. Second, if you don’t have that flexibility at the moment, you may want to point your toes outward as Hogan did, allowing a bigger hip turn, and maybe even allow your front heel to come off the ground in the backswing like Nicklaus. The important thing is to try to get the club to the top more by turning than by lifting. And finally, if you’re in a position right now where your flexibility not only isn’t quite where you want it, and these adjustments still won’t allow you to turn the club back fully to the top without lifting it, then you just might need to start that downswing with the upper body.

What you say??? That’s not what Bantam Ben said! I know, I know, but one of the things I’m fond of telling people is, “The higher your right elbow, the higher your handicap,” especially on the way down, so kick-starting your forward swing by making sure your elbow tucks low and in front of the right hip prior to the initiating that hip turn can be the missing link that allows you to get it back underneath the left arm so you can strike the ball from an inside path again. It’s not what the immortal Mr. Hogan might have told you to do, but if you’ve been searching in vain for Golf’s Holy Grail of moves for a while now, and neither Mr. Hogan’s description, nor the multitudes of instructors claims of what his actual Secret was have turned out to be the genuine article, it just might be because Ben didn’t honestly know what his real secret was. And even though it was hiding in plain sight, his own description of what he was doing made it easy to be confused about where to look.

At least that’s my opinion, but just remember, it’s only an opinion. So… what’s yours?

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Mike Dowd

Mike Dowd is the author of the new novel COMING HOME and the Lessons from the Golf Guru: Wit, Wisdom, Mind-Tricks & Mysticism for Golf and Life series. He has been Head PGA Professional at Oakdale Golf & CC in Oakdale, California since 2001, and is serving his third term on the NCPGA Board of Directors and Chairs the Growth of the Game Committee. Mike has introduced thousands of people to the game and has coached players that have played golf collegiately at the University of Hawaii, San Francisco, U.C. Berkeley, U.C. Davis, University of the Pacific, C.S.U. Sacramento, C.S.U. Stanislaus, C.S.U. Chico, and Missouri Valley State, as men and women on the professional tours. Mike currently lives in Turlock, California with his wife and their two aspiring LPGA stars, where he serves on the Turlock Community Theatre Board, is the past Chairman of the Parks & Recreation Commission and is a member of the Kiwanis Club of Greater Turlock. In his spare time (what's that?) he enjoys playing golf with his girls, writing, music, fishing and following the foibles of the Sacramento Kings, the San Francisco 49ers, the San Francisco Giants, and, of course, the PGA Tour. You can find Mike at mikedowdgolf.com.

35 Comments

Scott

Feb 7, 2019 at 6:27 am

Sir:

If Hogan’s right elbow was in front of his body then how do you explain that, in every photo & video in the world, his right elbow is still level with his hip at impact? Once the right elbow passes or gets “in front of the body” right hip you cannot make it stay there.

I know the answer, and most assuredly I can tell you that this whole “keep the arms in front of you” and “getting stuck” movement we hear on every telecast is NOT accurate at least in terms of BH swing.

The moment that elbow passes the right hip there is no moving it back, lol. And the truth is, you’re just an arm swinger when it happens, throwing the club at the ball with your arms, manipulating the clubhead with various goofy techniques. “Ohhh look at him use the GROUND, OMG he’s GOT it now” after the years of “Look st Jadon Day’s swing, he’s only turned his hips 11 degrees. OMG, LOOK at the power!!!” And the NEWEST *hot* verbiage, “swing left, swing left, that’s how Hogan did it. Or “Diverging Planes” lolz. I mean, seriously, come on now. Does anyone really think Hogan was trying to gouge his leading edge of the club by tilting his shoulders and…sheesh. These guys are charlatans. Again, there’s more than 1 way to hit a golf ball solidly but please leave (not you, sir, the hucksters) Mr. Hogan alone with your pontificating & flat out lies & stealing, using his name to profit.

Nobilo is the worst. But I digress.

You don’t have to swing like Hogan to be successful. Lots of funky stuff will work fine. But one thing is for sure, photos & videos don’t lie. I don’t claim to know “The Secret” but I know the answer to this puzzle & it’s not “sticking your arms in front of you” or “waiting for the club” or “sitting on your right foot” or “great timing” or “he had great hands”.

I’ll tell you this much, at least: they should stop focusing on his arms and hands and elbows and cupping and his fingernail size on his left pinky, because if you read it all carefully there’s one word that I finally discovered that elicited a whole bunch of different revelations.

Beginning in the 70’s I was a part of the whole Reverse C revolution, where everyone was trying desperately to figure out the puzzle of the right elbow and right hip.

Look at sequences of his swing backwards & try to figure out how he was able to get to those positions, and just know that it is. NOT “swinging left” omg what an abomination. I can’t even….

Really respect your writing and your teaching, please keep up the great work.

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Bob

Dec 28, 2017 at 9:59 pm

I believe in Jim McLean’s 8 step swing, he describes that at impact the right elbow, right hip and right knee will be in alignment with the right elbow right in front of the hip. See the photo sequence above. Whether that was Hogan’s “secret” is another matter.

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Caddy

Dec 27, 2017 at 10:49 am

I think he certainly knew what he was doing and feeling – likely more than anyone ever. You said,

“when you combined that position with a little lateral hip slide just prior to impact, it allowed them to deliver the face of the club to the back of the ball with very little release of the hands into the hitting area. In this way, the club is squared not so much through hand or forearm rotation, but by the turn of the body…”

That certainly kept the face from closing until after impact. The hip rotation being the 1st move from the top and mentioned over 40 times in Five Lessons, was huge in keeping the club from coming TOO much from the inside. His path was better by feeling that he rotated the hips 1st. Even if there was a little lateral slide it was a result of dynamic motion and not intentional. His intent was to rotate and that “fixed” his extreme in to out path. Keeping his right arm under kept his face from closing early. Once the path and the face were coordinated… he was MONEY!

Reply Report comment
Guia

Dec 26, 2017 at 4:18 pm

No, secret. He practiced his butt off. I love the way he keeps his arms close to his body.

Reply Report comment
- Sid
  
  Dec 27, 2017 at 12:47 pm
  
  That’s the “secret”!!!!!! Practice, and more practice!!!!
  Everybody wants that secret tip to avoid practice and physical failure.
  Their solution?: Buy the latest greatest new equipment. Losers all!!!
  
  Reply Report comment
RBImGuy

Dec 26, 2017 at 2:55 pm

“it just might be because Ben didn’t honestly know what his real secret was.”

If you ask me that was it.
If hee really knew then his explanation would make someone else able to repeat, he wasnt able to.

I am however able to do that, repeat and teach the same “the real secret” to the golf swing

Reply Report comment
Kelvin

Dec 25, 2017 at 9:20 pm

I believe Hogan’s secret was that he worked out the Trackman secret that no one knew…that the face controls the start direction and the path to face creates the curve. He used to practice behind a tree at Shady Oaks curving the ball. Armed with that knowledge he built himself a cut swing that he knew he could trust.

Reply Report comment
Ray Bennett

Dec 24, 2017 at 8:02 am

Not sure why people are so obsessed with Ben Hogan’s secret. To me he was a journeyman pro who gave his all to work out a golf swing that would earn him and his a comfortable living. He wasn’t a gifted athlete the likes of Sam Snead and Coy who used their athleticism to swing the club the easy way. Hogan swing the club differently which he described in the introduction to “Five Lessons….”. He pronated the left arm fully in the backswing and supinated it early during the downswing resulting in a hold off release with a stable clubface through the impact zone (referred to as a shut to open release where the clubface has minimal rotation coming into impact and beyond). He needed to practice many hours every day where Snead and Coy did it the easy athletic way. I guess we pay homage to those who give their guts and all to succeed in their endeavours.

Reply Report comment
- Mj
  
  Dec 24, 2017 at 12:07 pm
  
  Pronating and supinating means rotating the forearms.
  There is no hold off move.
  move.
  .
  
  Saved Photo
  ?
  ?
  
  Reply Report comment
- Benseattle
  
  Dec 25, 2017 at 7:58 pm
  
  Sorry… does anyone have a clue as to who this “Coy” is?
  
  Reply Report comment
  - Ray Bennett
    
    Dec 26, 2017 at 3:14 pm
    
    The hard way to swing a golf club is to consciously rotate the clubface open to it’s maximum during the backswing and square it up during the downswing with minimal rotation through impact and finish with the clubface open – which is what Hogan did. His swing was powered by tremendous body rotation.
    
    Reply Report comment
LarryG

Dec 23, 2017 at 2:51 am

If the truth be known, Hogan’s “Secret” is unique to his body anatomy and nobody else. Trying to imitate Hogan’s swing and hoping something magical will happen is foolish, and rather futile too.

Reply Report comment
- SK
  
  Dec 23, 2017 at 3:00 am
  
  Hogan’s real secret was his flat ‘duffer’ cap that he always wore and the cap centered his swing down through his body into the ground. Soooo obvious.
  
  Reply Report comment
  - roger
    
    Dec 23, 2017 at 2:44 pm
    
    LOL
    
    Reply Report comment
  - Sid
    
    Dec 27, 2017 at 12:49 pm
    
    No… the secret is the belt that holds up his pants!!!
    If your belt isn’t exactly right your pants will mess up yer swing!!!
    
    Reply Report comment
- Mj
  
  Dec 23, 2017 at 5:38 pm
  
  What part of his anatomy was different than anyone else’s. The only successful instructors have systems. He told his secret in the article and repeated it through the years including on video.
  
  Reply Report comment
  - LarryG
    
    Dec 24, 2017 at 1:51 am
    
    Hogan had exceptionally big and meaty hands and popeye forearms… and he was rather short, like 5’7″…. and he was not obese with a belly hanging over his belt like most men I see on the golf courses.
    
    Reply Report comment
- Caddy
  
  Dec 27, 2017 at 10:53 am
  
  The principles are the same. The more you stay connected and turn the more efficient your swing and ball-striking will be. If you use a lot of hands and arms, you had better have good hand eye coordination, timing and sheer talent.
  
  Reply Report comment
Rich Douglas

Dec 22, 2017 at 11:19 pm

Hogan was–and is–the greatest perpetrator of advice leading to slicing there ever was. He battled a hook for most of his early career. The methods he later proffered were a result of his overcoming the hook. He hit a slice to negate the hook.

Do not follow that.

If you want basic instruction on the swing, I recommend “Getting Back to Basics” by Tom Watson, “Five Fundamentals” by Steve Elkington, and/or “Swing Like a Pro” by Ralph Mann. Stay away from Hogan at all costs.

Reply Report comment
- LarryG
  
  Dec 23, 2017 at 2:41 am
  
  HERESY!!!! Hogan and even Homer are sacred names in the world of golf swing understanding and to desecrate their names will get you a forum fatwah …!!!
  
  Reply Report comment
Mj

Dec 22, 2017 at 7:52 pm

Read the top right of the life magazine cover it says Hogan tells his secrets. Tell the secret means this a secret which is in the article
Not this might be his secret.

Reply Report comment
- LarryG
  
  Dec 23, 2017 at 2:43 am
  
  No no… it’s buried in The Amazing World of Insects article…!!!
  
  Reply Report comment
CB

Dec 22, 2017 at 6:14 pm

The only secret is that he had to hit thousands of balls just to maintain his swing.

Reply Report comment
- LarryG
  
  Dec 23, 2017 at 2:46 am
  
  … and that’s what weird Moe “Pipeline” Norman did while proclaiming he he was the G.O.A.T. swinger of the golf club, at his demos and on his youtube videos too!!!
  
  Reply Report comment
FG

Dec 22, 2017 at 4:46 pm

Jim Furyk’s right elbow isn’t connected to his right hip at all so that must means he’s a terrible ball-striker, right? Shooting 58 and 59 with a bogey, how bad is that?

Reply Report comment
- roger
  
  Dec 23, 2017 at 2:46 pm
  
  It’s painful watching Furyk’s loopy swing.
  
  Reply Report comment
  - Wizardofflatstickmountain
    
    Dec 23, 2017 at 6:21 pm
    
    Yeah, totally gross and an offense to my eyes.
    
    That swing has produced over $67MM in earnings.
    
    I’m sure your swing looks like a poem wrapped in a rainbow.
    
    Reply Report comment
    - roger
      
      Dec 24, 2017 at 1:57 am
      
      You are correct when you say you are sure my swing looks like a poem wrapped in a rainbow… 99.9 mph too ….!
      
      Reply Report comment
HennyBogan67

Dec 22, 2017 at 2:24 pm

Nice article which reveals absolutely nothing! The secret is not in the downswing but how Hogan got to the top with his left wrist cupped. I think I found it and won’t reveal it here but ask yourself how did he go from a flat wrist at the 9 o’clock position to a cupped one at the top. The secret is always in the hands. Ben’s was miles ahead of everyone’s. If you figure it out, it will take you 3 swings to improve your ballstriking exponentially. The secret allows me to play Mizuno MP-4’s at 62 years old and to rip every iron in the bag with a tiny draw. Good luck, it’s worth the effort.

Reply Report comment
- Ur_A_Bogan
  
  Dec 22, 2017 at 5:12 pm
  
  Wow dude seriously, do you not realize the absolute hypocrisy in your comment. “This Bogan goes on and claims he knows about Hogan’s secret but actually reveals nothing!” As you directly follow that with a sentence about how you’ve found Hogan’s TRUE secret, and yet you just can’t tell us plebs about it here. Get over yourself.
  
  Reply Report comment
- roger
  
  Dec 23, 2017 at 2:51 pm
  
  A cupped wrist at the top suggests that the ligaments on the palm side of wrist are weak compared to the ligaments on the top of the wrist. These are the finger ligaments that go through the carpal tunnel and then into the elbow.
  The unequal ligament strength causes the wrist to cup when the club lever at the top goes into reversal.
  A flat wrist is anatomically neutral while a cupped wrist is in palmar extension.
  
  Reply Report comment
Marnix

Dec 22, 2017 at 1:09 pm

Thanks for this carefully written insight. Whether your observation of the low right elbow happens to be ‘the secret’ or not is somewhat irrelevant, but your explanation on why it is important will certainly be helpful to many. Coincidentally or not, this is exactly what I have been working on for the past 6 months and my ball striking has improved and my scores are inching lower.

Reply Report comment
Frank

Dec 22, 2017 at 11:53 am

When I stated in golf 50 years ago I struggled until
I read the first Hogan book. I was hooked on Hogan and fought a slice forever. I even practiced the Hogan grip for hours in my spare time. I took lessons, lots of lessons, and read every other theory (and tried them out) always coming back to Hogan. Finally after retirement and all of my flexibility and strength gone with my youth I looked at the Hogan swing sequence then Nicklaus then Trevino then all of my past heroes swings and picked up a pen flashlight put my Hogan grip on it with the light on mimicking the butt of the grip and traced my swing slowly on the rug. I transitioned to a strong grip, a 10 finger grip , a weak grip and found that if I traced the in to out swing I would come to impact in a square position. What was really surprising was my right arm position looked like Hogan’s Eureka. I’m now breaking 40 constantly and with less effort. At age 78 I think I got it.

Reply Report comment
- roger
  
  Dec 23, 2017 at 2:43 pm
  
  So you only play 9 holes?
  Do you walk and push a trolley or carry a bag… or do you ride a cart?
  
  Reply Report comment
toyzrx

Dec 22, 2017 at 11:52 am

Probably wasn’t anything ground breaking but was a personal swing key he held which he did not want to share with anyone. Maybe he wanted to covey to us in silence that there was not such things as secrets in golf swing or golf period.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Wells Fargo Championship betting preview: Tommy Fleetwood ready to finally land maiden PGA Tour title

Published

1 day ago

May 6, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

The PGA Tour season ramps back up this week for another “signature event,” as golf fans look forward to the year’s second major championship next week.

After two weaker-field events in the Zurich Classic and the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, most of the best players in the world will head to historic Quail Hollow for one of the best non-major tournaments of the year.

Last season, Wyndham Clark won the event by four shots.

Quail Hollow is a par-71 measuring 7,521 yards that features Bermudagrass greens. The tree-lined, parkland style course can play quite difficult and features one of the most difficult three-hole stretches in golf known as “The Green Mile,” which makes up holes 16-18: two mammoth par 4s and a 221-yard par 3. All three holes have an average score over par, and water is in play in each of the last five holes on the course.

The field is excellent this week with 68 golfers teeing it up without a cut. All of the golfers who’ve qualified are set to tee it up, with the exception of Scottie Scheffler, who is expecting the birth of his first child.

Past Winners at Quail Hollow

2023: Wyndham Clark (-19)
2022: Max Homa (-8)
2021: Rory McIlroy (-10)
2019: Max Homa (-15)
2018: Jason Day (-12)
2017: Justin Thomas (-8) (PGA Championship)
2016: James Hahn (-9)
2015: Rory McIlroy (-21)

Key Stats For Quail Hollow

Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes gained: Approach will be extremely important this week as second shots at Quail Hollow can be very difficult.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

Akshay Bhatia (+1.16)
Tom Hoge (+1.12)
Corey Conners (+1.01)
Shane Lowry (+0.93)
Austin Eckroat (+0.82)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Quail Hollow is a long course on which it is important to play from the fairway. Both distance and accuracy are important, as shorter tee shots will result in approach shots from 200 or more yards. With most of the holes heavily tree lined, errant drives will create some real trouble for the players.

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee Past 24 Rounds:

Ludvig Aberg (+0.73)
Rory McIlroy (+0.69)
Xander Schauffele (+0.62)
Viktor Hovland (+0.58)
Chris Kirk (+0.52)

Proximity: 175-200

The 175-200 range is key at Quail Hollow. Players who can hit their long irons well will rise to the top of the leaderboard.

Proximity: 175-200+ over past 24 rounds:

Cameron Young (28’2″)
Akshay Bhatia (29’6″)
Ludvig Aberg (+30’6″)
Sam Burns (+30’6″)
Collin Morikawa (+30’9″)

SG: Total on Tom Fazio Designs

Players who thrive on Tom Fazio designs get a bump for me at Quail Hollow this week.

SG: Total on Tom Fazio Designs over past 36 rounds:

Patrick Cantlay (+2.10)
Rory McIlroy (+1.95)
Tommy Fleetwood (+1.68)
Austin Eckroat (+1.60)
Will Zalatoris (+1.57)

Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass)

Strokes Gained: Putting has historically graded out as the most important statistic at Quail Hollow. While it isn’t always predictable, I do want to have it in the model to bump up golfers who prefer to putt on Bermudagrass.

Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass) Over Past 24 Rounds:

Taylor Moore (+0.82)
Nick Dunlap (+.76)
Wyndham Clark (+.69)
Emiliano Grillo (+.64)
Cam Davis (+.61)

Course History

This stat will incorporate players that have played well in the past at Quail Hollow.

Course History over past 36 rounds (per round):

Rory McIlroy (+2.50)
Justin Thomas (+1.96)
Jason Day (+1.92)
Rickie Fowler (+1.83)
Viktor Hovland (+1.78)

Wells Fargo Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), SG: Off the Tee (23%), SG: Total on Fazio designs (12%), Proximity: 175-200 (12%), SG: Putting Bermuda grass (12%), and Course History (14%).

Wyndham Clark
Rory McIlroy
Xander Schauffele
Shane Lowry
Hideki Matsuyama
Viktor Hovland
Cameron Young
Austin Eckroat
Byeong Hun An
Justin Thomas

2024 Wells Fargo Championship Picks

Tommy Fleetwood +2500 (DraftKings)

I know many out there have Tommy fatigue when it comes to betting, which is completely understandable given his lack of ability to win on the PGA Tour thus far in his career. However, history has shown us that players with Fleetwood’s talent eventually break though, and I believe for Tommy, it’s just a matter of time.

Fleetwood has been excellent on Tom Fazio designs. Over his past 36 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on Fazio tracks. He’s also been incredibly reliable off the tee this season. He’s gained strokes in the category in eight of his past nine starts, including at The Masters, the PLAYERS and the three “signature events” of the season. Tommy is a golfer built for tougher courses and can grind it out in difficult conditions.

Last year, Fleetwood was the first-round leader at this event, firing a Thursday 65. He finished the event in a tie for 5th place.

For those worried about Fleetwood’s disappointing start his last time out at Harbour Town, he’s bounced back nicely after plenty of poor outings this season. His T7 at the Valero Texas Open was after a MC and T35 in his prior two starts and his win at the Dubai Invitational came after a T47 at the Sentry.

I expect Tommy to bounce back this week and contend at Quail Hollow.

Justin Thomas +3000 (DraftKings)

It’s been a rough couple of years for Justin Thomas, but I don’t believe things are quite as bad as they seem for JT. He got caught in the bad side of the draw at Augusta for last month’s Masters and has gained strokes on approach in seven of his nine starts in 2024.

Thomas may have found something in his most recent start at the RBC Heritage. He finished T5 at a course that he isn’t the best fit for on paper. He also finally got the putter working and ranked 15th in Strokes Gained: Putting for the week.

The two-time PGA champion captured the first of his two major championships at Quail Hollow back in 2017, and some good vibes from the course may be enough to get JT out of his slump.

Thomas hasn’t won an event in just about two years. However, I still believe that will change soon as he’s been one of the most prolific winners throughout his PGA Tour career. Since 2015, he has 15 PGA Tour wins.

Course history is pretty sticky at Quail Hollow, with players who like the course playing well there on a regular basis. In addition to JT’s PGA Championship win in 2017, he went 4-1 at the 2022 Presidents Cup and finished T14 at the event last year despite being in poor form. Thomas can return as one of the top players on the PGA Tour with a win at a “signature event” this week.

Cameron Young +3500 (DraftKings)

For many golf bettors, it’s been frustrating backing Cam Young this season. His talent is undeniable, and one of the best and most consistent performers on the PGA Tour. He just hasn’t broken through with a victory yet. Quail Hollow has been a great place for elite players to get their first victory. Rory McIlroy, Anthony Kim, Rickie Fowler and Wyndham Clark all notched their first PGA Tour win at Quail.

Throughout Cam Young’s career, he has thrived at tougher courses with strong fields. This season, he finished T16 at Riviera and T9 at Augusta National, demonstrating his preference of a tough test. His ability to hit the ball long and straight off the tee make him an ideal fit for Quail Hollow, despite playing pretty poorly his first time out in 2023 (T59). Young should be comfortable playing in the region as he played his college golf at Wake Forest, which is about an hour’s drive from Quail Hollow.

The 26-year-old has played well at Tom Fazio designs in the past and ranks 8th in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on those courses in his last 36 rounds. Perhaps most importantly, this season, Young is the best player on the PGA Tour in terms of proximity from 175-200 in the fairway, which is where a plurality and many crucial shots will come from this week.

Young is an elite talent and Quail Hollow has been kind to players of his ilk who’ve yet to win on Tour.

Byeong Hun An +5000 (FanDuel)

Byeong Hun An missed some opportunities last weekend at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson. He finished T4 and played some outstanding golf, but a couple of missed short putts prevented him from getting to the winning score of -23. Despite not getting the win, it’s hard to view An’s performance as anything other than an overwhelming success. It was An’s fourth top-ten finish of the season.

Last week, An gained 6.5 strokes ball striking, which was 7th in the field. He also ranked 12th for Strokes Gained: Approach and 13th for Strokes Gained: Off the Tee. The South Korean has been hitting the ball so well from tee to green all season long and he now heads to a golf course that should reward his precision.

An’s driver and long irons are absolute weapons. At Quail Hollow, players will see plenty of approach shots from the 175-200 range as well as some from 200+. In his past 24 rounds, Ben ranks 3rd in the field in proximity from 175-200 and 12th in proximity from 200+. Playing in an event that will not end up being a “birdie” fest should help An, who can separate from the field with his strong tee to green play. The putter may not always cooperate but getting to -15 is much easier than getting to -23 for elite ball strikers who tend to struggle on the greens.

Winning a “signature event” feels like a tall task for An this week with so many elite players in the field. However, he’s finished T16 at the Genesis Invitational, T16 at The Masters and T8 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. The 32-year-old’s game has improved drastically this season and I believe he’s ready to get the biggest win of his career.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s LIV Golf Singapore betting preview: Course specialist ready to thrive once again

Published

1 week ago

Apr 30, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

After another strong showing in Australia, LIV Golf will head to Sentosa Golf Club in Singapore looking to build off of what was undoubtedly their best event to date.

Sentosa Golf Club sits on the southern tip of Singapore and is one of the most beautiful courses in the world. The course is more than just incredible scenically; it was also rated 55th in Golf Digest’s top-100 courses in 2022-2023 and has been consistently regarded as one of the best courses in Asia. Prior to being part of the LIV rotation, the course hosted the Singapore Open every year since 2005.

Sentosa Golf Club is a par 71 measuring 7,406 yards. The course will require precise ball striking and some length off the tee. It’s possible to go low due to the pristine conditions, but there are also plenty of hazards and difficult spots on the course that can bring double bogey into play in a hurry. The Bermudagrass greens are perfectly manicured, and the course has spent millions on the sub-air system to keep the greens rolling fast. I spoke to Asian Tour player, Travis Smyth, who described the greens as “the best [he’s] ever played.”

Davis Love III, who competed in a Singapore Open in 2019, also gushed over the condition of the golf course.

“I love the greens. They are fabulous,” the 21-time PGA Tour winner said.

Love III also spoke about other aspects of the golf course.

“The greens are great; the fairways are perfect. It is a wonderful course, and it’s tricky off the tee.”

“It’s a long golf course, and you get some long iron shots. It takes somebody hitting it great to hit every green even though they are big.”

As Love III said, the course can be difficult off the tee due to the length of the course and the trouble looming around every corner. It will take a terrific ball striking week to win at Sentosa Golf Club.

In his pre-tournament press conference last season, Phil Mickelson echoed many of the same sentiments.

“To play Sentosa effectively, you’re going to have a lot of shots from 160 to 210, a lot of full 6-, 7-, 8-iron shots, and you need to hit those really well and you need to drive the ball well.”

Golfers who excel from tee to green and can dial in their longer irons will have a massive advantage this week.

Stat Leaders at LIV Golf Adelaide:

Fairways Hit

1.) Louis Oosthuizen

2.) Anirban Lahiri

3.) Jon Rahm

4.) Brendan Steele

5.) Cameron Tringale

Greens in Regulation

1.) Brooks Koepka

2.) Brendan Steele

3.) Dean Burmester

4.) Cameron Tringale

5.) Anirban Lahiri

Birdies Made

1.) Brendan Steele

2.) Dean Burmester

3.) Thomas Pieters

4.) Patrick Reed

5.) Carlos Ortiz

LIV Golf Individual Standings:

1.) Joaquin Niemann

2.) Jon Rahm

3.) Dean Burmester

4.) Louis Oosthuizen

5.) Abraham Ancer

LIV Golf Team Standings:

1.) Crushers

2.) Legion XIII

3.) Torque

4.) Stinger GC

5.) Ripper GC

LIV Golf Singapore Picks

Sergio Garcia +3000 (DraftKings)

Sergio Garcia is no stranger to Sentosa Golf Club. The Spaniard won the Singapore Open in 2018 by five strokes and lost in a playoff at LIV Singapore last year to scorching hot Talor Gooch. Looking at the course setup, it’s no surprise that a player like Sergio has played incredible golf here. He’s long off the tee and is one of the better long iron players in the world when he’s in form. Garcia is also statistically a much better putter on Bermudagrass than he is on other putting surfaces. He’s putt extremely well on Sentosa’s incredibly pure green complexes.

This season, Garcia has two runner-up finishes, both of them being playoff losses. Both El Camaleon and Doral are courses he’s had success at in his career. The Spaniard is a player who plays well at his tracks, and Sentosa is one of them. I believe Sergio will get himself in the mix this week. Hopefully the third time is a charm in Singapore.

Paul Casey +3300 (FanDuel)

Paul Casey is in the midst of one of his best seasons in the five years or so. The results recently have been up and down, but he’s shown that when he’s on a golf course that suits his game, he’s amongst the contenders.

This season, Casey has finishes of T5 (LIV Las Vegas), T2 (LIV Hong Kong), and a 6th at the Singapore Classic on the DP World Tour. At his best, the Englishman is one of the best long iron players in the world, which makes him a strong fit for Sentosa. Despite being in poor form last season, he was able to fire a Sunday 63, which shows he can low here at the course.

It’s been three years since Casey has won a tournament (Omega Dubai Desert Classic in 2021), but he’s been one of the top players on LIV this season and I think he can get it done at some point this season.

Mito Pereira +5000 (Bet365)

Since Mito Pereira’s unfortunate demise at the 2022 PGA Championship, he’s been extremely inconsistent. However, over the past few months, the Chilean has played well on the International Series as well as his most recent LIV start. Mito finished 8th at LIV Adelaide, which was his best LIV finish this season.

Last year, Pereira finished 5th at LIV Singapore, shooting fantastic rounds of 67-66-66. It makes sense why Mito would like Sentosa, as preeminent ball strikers tend to rise to the challenge of the golf course. He’s a great long iron player who is long and straight off the tee.

Mito has some experience playing in Asia and is one of the most talented players on LIV who’s yet to get in the winner’s circle. I have questions about whether or not he can come through once in contention, but if he gets there, I’m happy to roll the dice.

Andy Ogletree +15000 (DraftKings)

Andy Ogletree is a player I expected to have a strong 2024 but struggled early in his first full season on LIV. After failing to crack the top-25 in any LIV event this year, the former U.S. Amateur champion finally figured things out, finished in a tie for 3rd at LIV Adelaide.

Ogletree should be incredible comfortable playing in Singapore. He won the International Series Qatar last year and finished T3 at the International Series Singapore. The 26-year-old was arguably the best player on the Asian Tour in 2023 and has been fantastic in the continent over the past 18 months.

If Ogletree has indeed found form, he looks to be an amazing value at triple-digit odds.

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Lessons from the worst golf instructor in America

Published

1 week ago

Apr 30, 2024

Brendan Ryan

In Tampa, there is a golf course that boasts carts that do not work, a water range, and a group of players none of which have any chance to break 80. The course is overseen by a staff of crusty men who have succeeded at nothing in life but ending up at the worst-run course in America. However, this place is no failure. With several other local courses going out of business — and boasting outstanding greens — the place is booked full.

While I came for the great greens, I stayed to watch our resident instructor; a poor-tempered, method teacher who caters to the hopeless. At first, it was simply hilarious. However, after months of listening and watching, something clicked. I realized I had a front-row seat to the worst golf instructor in America.

Here are some of my key takeaways.

Method Teacher

It is widely accepted that there are three types of golf instructors: system teachers, non-system teachers, and method teachers. Method teachers prescribe the same antidote for each student based on a preamble which teachers can learn in a couple day certification.

Method teaching allows anyone to be certified. This process caters to the lowest caliber instructor, creating the illusion of competency. This empowers these underqualified instructors with the moniker of “certified” to prey on the innocent and uninformed.

The Cult of Stack and Jilt

The Stack and Tilt website proudly boasts, “A golfer swings his hands inward in the backswing as opposed to straight back to 1) create power, similar to a field goal kicker moving his leg in an arc and 2) to promote a swing that is in-to-out, which produces a draw (and eliminates a slice).”

Now, let me tell you something, there is this law of the universe which says “energy can either be created or destroyed,” so either these guys are defying physics or they have no idea what they are taking about. Further, the idea that the first move of the backswing determines impact is conjecture with a splash of utter fantasy.

These are the pontifications of a method — a set of prescriptions applied to everyone with the hope of some success through the placebo effect. It is one thing for a naive student to believe, for a golf instructor to drink and then dispel this Kool-Aid is malpractice.

Fooled by Randomness

In flipping a coin, or even a March Madness bet, there is a 50-50 chance of success. In golf, especially for new players, results are asymmetric. Simply put: Anything can happen. The problem is that when bad instructors work with high handicappers, each and every shot gets its own diagnosis and prescription. Soon the student is overwhelmed.

Now here’s the sinister thing: The overwhelming information is by design. In this case, the coach is not trying to make you better, they are trying to make you reliant on them for information. A quasi Stockholm syndrome of codependency.

Practice

One of the most important scientists of the 20th century was Ivan Pavlov. As you might recall, he found that animals, including humans, could be conditioned into biological responses. In golf, the idea of practice has made millions of hackers salivate that they are one lesson or practice session from “the secret.”

Sunk Cost

The idea for the worst golf instructor is to create control and dependency so that clients ignore the sunk cost of not getting better. Instead, they are held hostage by the idea that they are one lesson or tip away from unlocking their potential.

Cliches

Cliches have the effect of terminating thoughts. However, they are the weapon of choice for this instructor. Add some hyperbole and students actually get no information. As a result, these players couldn’t play golf. When they did, they had no real scheme. With no idea what they are doing, they would descend into a spiral of no idea what to do, bad results, lower confidence, and running back to the lesson tee from more cliches.

The fact is that poor instruction is about conditioning players to become reliant members of your cult. To take away autonomy. To use practice as a form of control. To sell more golf lessons not by making people better but through the guise that without the teacher, the student can never reach their full potential. All under the umbrella of being “certified” (in a 2-day course!) and a melee of cliches.

This of course is not just happening at my muni but is a systemic problem around the country and around the world, the consequences of which are giving people a great reason to stop playing golf. But hey, at least it’s selling a lot of golf balls…

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