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The Search For Hogan’s Secret

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I love a good mystery. I love reading them, watching them and even writing them in my spare time. Many of the most wildly popular literary works involve the quest to solve history’s mysteries or the search for lost treasure, and cinematic forays depicting these adventures are often blockbusters. When it comes to history’s biggest mysteries, certain ones have been sought after more fervently, by more men, than almost all others. The Ark of the Covenant comes to mind, and The Holy Grail is an obvious contender. But amongst my ilk, the search for Ben Hogan’s Secret is undoubtedly foremost among the game’s modern mysteries. Enough passion, intrigue and pursuit surround all of these things that I’m not really sure what is most shocking: that none of them has actually been found, or that, unlike The Ark and The Grail, a movie hasn’t (yet) been made about The Search for Hogan’s Secret.

Now before I begin in earnest, I should concede that I’m treading dangerous waters here. A cottage industry has evolved around Hogan’s Secret, with no less than a gazillion swing zealots claiming to have uncovered it everywhere from in an abandoned locker at Riviera to in the last will and testament of a guy who used to pick the range at Fort Worth Country Club back in the 1950’s. Among those teaching, pondering, and pontificating on the mysteries of the golf swing, there are hordes of “Hoganophiles” invested in ways that span from emotionally to professionally to financially in their claims to Hogan’s treasure. And anyone else coming along making claims even slightly at odds with their own conclusions can invite swift and vehement reactions: calls of blasphemy, incompetence or worse. But I forge on, because if I can shed even a little light upon this on-going investigation, I’ll risk the abuse. All in the name of the greater good of the game.

So back to Hogan. For starters, his playing record inspires understandable awe. And when you consider the fact that he won more than half his majors after a near fatal and crippling car accident that prohibited him from playing in more than a half-dozen events a year for the remainder of his career, you begin to understand why he is so revered. In 1953, having won the Masters, U.S. Open and Open Championship, Hogan very possibly could have been the only person to have completed the modern Grand Slam if the Open and PGA championships hadn’t had conflicting schedules that year. And while he only won nine majors (compared to Nicklaus’ 18 and Woods’ 14), he won those nine majors in only sixteen starts between 1946 and 1953. He also only finished out of the top-10 once. Had the PGA not still been match play during his competitive career, requiring winners to play 36 holes in a day (something Hogan couldn’t do after his accident) it’s very likely he would have added a few more majors to his total.

In truth, it’s unsurprising that a stoic man like Hogan, with a nickname like The Hawk and a record such as his would leave behind a legend that went beyond his mere exploits on the links. It was in Life Magazine back in the 1950’s that Hogan first claimed to have discovered his elusive Secret. The change that allowed the struggling journeyman pro to harness his wayward hook, a shot that almost drove him from the tour, and go on an almost unprecedented streak of tournament wins that would ultimately see him hailed as one of the best players in history a decade later. And in the process that success, combined with his explanations for it in the years to come, would inspire decades of debate.

Now, like most golf professionals, I have my opinions about what I like to see in a good golf swing and the elements that are crucial to obtain a modicum of success. But I’m self-aware enough to understand that, as I said, these are to a degree just my opinions. One of the most beautiful things about the golf swing is that it’s short on absolutes. The number of different looking golf swings that have tasted major success in the history of sport is near uncountable. Tiger Woods alone won major championships with three very different swings and PGA Tour events with four, and still an armada of us who claim to know a thing or two about the motion debate incessantly about which one was best. If swings the likes of Jim Furyk, John Daly, Ray Floyd, Jim Thorpe, Lee Trevino, Arnold Palmer and Miller Barber can win at the highest level, it should truly give hope to the most unorthodox among us — while giving pause to the rest of us who say you have to do it a certain way if you want to be any good.

That being said (and understood), I’m as guilty as the next guy who coaches competitive golfers for a living of getting sucked into searching for Hogan’s buried treasure. I suppose it’s understandable seeing as how he cryptically mentioned at one point that it could be found in the dirt somewhere, but I digress. You see, whether it was in that Life article, various interviews, his book Power Golf, or the Immortal Five Lessons, Hogan actually left us some very detailed clues as to what he felt was most important when it came to swinging a golf club. But it’s what Hogan supposedly didn’t say that left the treasure hunters among us still looking under the couch cushions for that missing remote. Like a master chef who holds back one key ingredient when offering up the recipe of a famous dish, one that will keep it from ever being truly replicated by scores of imitators, we believe Hogan withheld something from the golfing masses. Something he would ultimately take with him to his grave.

Now, from my point of view, I think Hogan was actually a bit of a shy man, and one who didn’t mind remaining a bit of a mystery. It only added to his intimidation factor when it came to competition, and ultimately elevated the Hogan mystique. And a bit of intrigue as it related to his historic success wasn’t an all bad thing when it came to marketing the golf clubs and balls that Hogan occupied most of his post tournament golf years doing. I also believe that Old Ben wasn’t immune to possibly having a quiet laugh at all of our expense. Could it be that all that talk of the pronation of the wrists, the short left thumb, or hitting balls left-handed as a youngster was nothing more than a red herring? Something planted in the public consciousness by a man who wanted to throw us all off the scent? Hogan wouldn’t have been the first mystical golf guru to have done so, nor would he be the last, but there is one other thing to consider.

Is it possible that Hogan’s real secret was something he wasn’t himself quite aware he was actually doing? It is quite possible that the changes in grip, wrist position, or any of the other things Hogan claimed were his Secret might possibly have served as a distraction in and of themselves. Something that may have in fact aided, or complemented, what he was doing in this swing, but something that in a technical sense would have been actually quite inconsequential if he wasn’t already doing something else, something pretty much every other legendary striker of the ball has done as well.

In the 1960’s Hogan recorded a video for Shell’s Wonderful World of Golf in which he explained what he did in his golf swing. In it he described how he initiated the first move down with his lower body. This is what Hogan felt that he did, and if you look at slow-motion video of his swing you can certainly see that he does start moving his hips first, almost before he completes his backswing on some clubs. In fact, if you look at Hogan swinging a driver you can actually see the clubhead still moving backward as he initiates his hip turn in the forward swing.

The thing that Hogan didn’t articulate in the video, though, a thing he might possibly have not even been consciously aware of, was the reason he could initiate the forward swing with his lower body as much as he did was how low and connected his right elbow was to his right hip, and how it remained underneath the left arm not just to, but through impact. This is what nearly every great ball-striker does, including Woods, Nicklaus, Byron Nelson, Bobby Jones and even that legendary savant so revered by golf swing geeks, the quirky Canadian Moe Norman.

All those great golfers arrived in that position by various methods, but they ended up there just the same — like London cabbies who might not take the GPS recommended route to get you to Heathrow, but they get you there on time just the same. And whether it was Hogan, Nelson, Nicklaus, or Norman, when you combined that position with a little lateral hip slide just prior to impact, it allowed them to deliver the face of the club to the back of the ball with very little release of the hands into the hitting area. In this way, the club is squared not so much through hand or forearm rotation, but by the turn of the body, a reality illustrated by the fact that every great ball-striker’s hips and shoulders are about half-way turned to the target at impact.

Now I know the technocrats out there will decry this as an over-simplification of what Hogan and others have done, and I get that, but I do so for a few reasons. One, to point out that there are common similarities amongst great players. Two, to give an idea about which area of the swing is possibly most important to focus on if you feel you need to make a change. And three, to highlight the fact that despite those similarities, there is no one way to get there, as long as you ultimately do.

Hogan, whether it was intentional or not, wasn’t the first professional to articulate something about his golf swing that was a bit misleading. And the real problem with most golfers (and instructors) taking Hogan’s advice at whole cloth is that most players who attempt to initiate the forward swing with the lower body have arms so disconnected from their lower bodies that it causes them to come over the top and hit the ball form the outside, exactly the opposite of what Hogan claims it will do. You see, there’s this pesky little thing called your spine that connects your arms and shoulders to your hips. Most golfers, especially those of advancing age, aren’t nearly as flexible as the modern athlete. When they run out of available body turn in the backswing, they lift the club into position the rest of the way. This disconnects the upper and lower body, setting them up to have the upper body stuck behind the lower because the arms hands and shoulders can only resist so much of that hip turn before they cry uncle and follow along.

Having your arms connected to the lower body through the impact area not only allows you to strike the ball more directly from the inside, but allows you to square the club through body rotation. When the hips are too far in front of the upper body, the lower body often begins to move up and out of the hitting area before the club is in position to strike the ball. And as you get farther and farther from the ball and/or the club gets stuck open due to the arms and hands getting left behind, it forces you to cast or flip the club at the ball through impact in order to square it. This move sacrifices both power and consistency.

So what do we do? First and foremost, acquiring the necessary flexibility to complete a backswing by turning isn’t a bad place to start regardless of your age. Second, if you don’t have that flexibility at the moment, you may want to point your toes outward as Hogan did, allowing a bigger hip turn, and maybe even allow your front heel to come off the ground in the backswing like Nicklaus. The important thing is to try to get the club to the top more by turning than by lifting. And finally, if you’re in a position right now where your flexibility not only isn’t quite where you want it, and these adjustments still won’t allow you to turn the club back fully to the top without lifting it, then you just might need to start that downswing with the upper body.

What you say??? That’s not what Bantam Ben said! I know, I know, but one of the things I’m fond of telling people is, “The higher your right elbow, the higher your handicap,” especially on the way down, so kick-starting your forward swing by making sure your elbow tucks low and in front of the right hip prior to the initiating that hip turn can be the missing link that allows you to get it back underneath the left arm so you can strike the ball from an inside path again. It’s not what the immortal Mr. Hogan might have told you to do, but if you’ve been searching in vain for Golf’s Holy Grail of moves for a while now, and neither Mr. Hogan’s description, nor the multitudes of instructors claims of what his actual Secret was have turned out to be the genuine article, it just might be because Ben didn’t honestly know what his real secret was. And even though it was hiding in plain sight, his own description of what he was doing made it easy to be confused about where to look.

At least that’s my opinion, but just remember, it’s only an opinion. So… what’s yours?

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Mike Dowd is the author of the new novel COMING HOME and the Lessons from the Golf Guru: Wit, Wisdom, Mind-Tricks & Mysticism for Golf and Life series. He has been Head PGA Professional at Oakdale Golf & CC in Oakdale, California since 2001, and is serving his third term on the NCPGA Board of Directors and Chairs the Growth of the Game Committee. Mike has introduced thousands of people to the game and has coached players that have played golf collegiately at the University of Hawaii, San Francisco, U.C. Berkeley, U.C. Davis, University of the Pacific, C.S.U. Sacramento, C.S.U. Stanislaus, C.S.U. Chico, and Missouri Valley State, as men and women on the professional tours. Mike currently lives in Turlock, California with his wife and their two aspiring LPGA stars, where he serves on the Turlock Community Theatre Board, is the past Chairman of the Parks & Recreation Commission and is a member of the Kiwanis Club of Greater Turlock. In his spare time (what's that?) he enjoys playing golf with his girls, writing, music, fishing and following the foibles of the Sacramento Kings, the San Francisco 49ers, the San Francisco Giants, and, of course, the PGA Tour. You can find Mike at mikedowdgolf.com.

35 Comments

35 Comments

  1. Scott

    Feb 7, 2019 at 6:27 am

    Sir:

    If Hogan’s right elbow was in front of his body then how do you explain that, in every photo & video in the world, his right elbow is still level with his hip at impact? Once the right elbow passes or gets “in front of the body” right hip you cannot make it stay there.

    I know the answer, and most assuredly I can tell you that this whole “keep the arms in front of you” and “getting stuck” movement we hear on every telecast is NOT accurate at least in terms of BH swing.

    The moment that elbow passes the right hip there is no moving it back, lol. And the truth is, you’re just an arm swinger when it happens, throwing the club at the ball with your arms, manipulating the clubhead with various goofy techniques. “Ohhh look at him use the GROUND, OMG he’s GOT it now” after the years of “Look st Jadon Day’s swing, he’s only turned his hips 11 degrees. OMG, LOOK at the power!!!” And the NEWEST *hot* verbiage, “swing left, swing left, that’s how Hogan did it. Or “Diverging Planes” lolz. I mean, seriously, come on now. Does anyone really think Hogan was trying to gouge his leading edge of the club by tilting his shoulders and…sheesh. These guys are charlatans. Again, there’s more than 1 way to hit a golf ball solidly but please leave (not you, sir, the hucksters) Mr. Hogan alone with your pontificating & flat out lies & stealing, using his name to profit.

    Nobilo is the worst. But I digress.

    You don’t have to swing like Hogan to be successful. Lots of funky stuff will work fine. But one thing is for sure, photos & videos don’t lie. I don’t claim to know “The Secret” but I know the answer to this puzzle & it’s not “sticking your arms in front of you” or “waiting for the club” or “sitting on your right foot” or “great timing” or “he had great hands”.

    I’ll tell you this much, at least: they should stop focusing on his arms and hands and elbows and cupping and his fingernail size on his left pinky, because if you read it all carefully there’s one word that I finally discovered that elicited a whole bunch of different revelations.

    Beginning in the 70’s I was a part of the whole Reverse C revolution, where everyone was trying desperately to figure out the puzzle of the right elbow and right hip.

    Look at sequences of his swing backwards & try to figure out how he was able to get to those positions, and just know that it is. NOT “swinging left” omg what an abomination. I can’t even….

    Really respect your writing and your teaching, please keep up the great work.

  2. Bob

    Dec 28, 2017 at 9:59 pm

    I believe in Jim McLean’s 8 step swing, he describes that at impact the right elbow, right hip and right knee will be in alignment with the right elbow right in front of the hip. See the photo sequence above. Whether that was Hogan’s “secret” is another matter.

  3. Caddy

    Dec 27, 2017 at 10:49 am

    I think he certainly knew what he was doing and feeling – likely more than anyone ever. You said,

    “when you combined that position with a little lateral hip slide just prior to impact, it allowed them to deliver the face of the club to the back of the ball with very little release of the hands into the hitting area. In this way, the club is squared not so much through hand or forearm rotation, but by the turn of the body…”

    That certainly kept the face from closing until after impact. The hip rotation being the 1st move from the top and mentioned over 40 times in Five Lessons, was huge in keeping the club from coming TOO much from the inside. His path was better by feeling that he rotated the hips 1st. Even if there was a little lateral slide it was a result of dynamic motion and not intentional. His intent was to rotate and that “fixed” his extreme in to out path. Keeping his right arm under kept his face from closing early. Once the path and the face were coordinated… he was MONEY!

  4. Guia

    Dec 26, 2017 at 4:18 pm

    No, secret. He practiced his butt off. I love the way he keeps his arms close to his body.

    • Sid

      Dec 27, 2017 at 12:47 pm

      That’s the “secret”!!!!!! Practice, and more practice!!!!
      Everybody wants that secret tip to avoid practice and physical failure.
      Their solution?: Buy the latest greatest new equipment. Losers all!!!

  5. RBImGuy

    Dec 26, 2017 at 2:55 pm

    “it just might be because Ben didn’t honestly know what his real secret was.”

    If you ask me that was it.
    If hee really knew then his explanation would make someone else able to repeat, he wasnt able to.

    I am however able to do that, repeat and teach the same “the real secret” to the golf swing

  6. Kelvin

    Dec 25, 2017 at 9:20 pm

    I believe Hogan’s secret was that he worked out the Trackman secret that no one knew…that the face controls the start direction and the path to face creates the curve. He used to practice behind a tree at Shady Oaks curving the ball. Armed with that knowledge he built himself a cut swing that he knew he could trust.

  7. Ray Bennett

    Dec 24, 2017 at 8:02 am

    Not sure why people are so obsessed with Ben Hogan’s secret. To me he was a journeyman pro who gave his all to work out a golf swing that would earn him and his a comfortable living. He wasn’t a gifted athlete the likes of Sam Snead and Coy who used their athleticism to swing the club the easy way. Hogan swing the club differently which he described in the introduction to “Five Lessons….”. He pronated the left arm fully in the backswing and supinated it early during the downswing resulting in a hold off release with a stable clubface through the impact zone (referred to as a shut to open release where the clubface has minimal rotation coming into impact and beyond). He needed to practice many hours every day where Snead and Coy did it the easy athletic way. I guess we pay homage to those who give their guts and all to succeed in their endeavours.

    • Mj

      Dec 24, 2017 at 12:07 pm

      Pronating and supinating means rotating the forearms.
      There is no hold off move.
      move.
      .

      Saved Photo
      ?
      ?

    • Benseattle

      Dec 25, 2017 at 7:58 pm

      Sorry… does anyone have a clue as to who this “Coy” is?

      • Ray Bennett

        Dec 26, 2017 at 3:14 pm

        The hard way to swing a golf club is to consciously rotate the clubface open to it’s maximum during the backswing and square it up during the downswing with minimal rotation through impact and finish with the clubface open – which is what Hogan did. His swing was powered by tremendous body rotation.

  8. LarryG

    Dec 23, 2017 at 2:51 am

    If the truth be known, Hogan’s “Secret” is unique to his body anatomy and nobody else. Trying to imitate Hogan’s swing and hoping something magical will happen is foolish, and rather futile too.

    • SK

      Dec 23, 2017 at 3:00 am

      Hogan’s real secret was his flat ‘duffer’ cap that he always wore and the cap centered his swing down through his body into the ground. Soooo obvious.

      • roger

        Dec 23, 2017 at 2:44 pm

        LOL

      • Sid

        Dec 27, 2017 at 12:49 pm

        No… the secret is the belt that holds up his pants!!!
        If your belt isn’t exactly right your pants will mess up yer swing!!!

    • Mj

      Dec 23, 2017 at 5:38 pm

      What part of his anatomy was different than anyone else’s. The only successful instructors have systems. He told his secret in the article and repeated it through the years including on video.

      • LarryG

        Dec 24, 2017 at 1:51 am

        Hogan had exceptionally big and meaty hands and popeye forearms… and he was rather short, like 5’7″…. and he was not obese with a belly hanging over his belt like most men I see on the golf courses.

    • Caddy

      Dec 27, 2017 at 10:53 am

      The principles are the same. The more you stay connected and turn the more efficient your swing and ball-striking will be. If you use a lot of hands and arms, you had better have good hand eye coordination, timing and sheer talent.

  9. Rich Douglas

    Dec 22, 2017 at 11:19 pm

    Hogan was–and is–the greatest perpetrator of advice leading to slicing there ever was. He battled a hook for most of his early career. The methods he later proffered were a result of his overcoming the hook. He hit a slice to negate the hook.

    Do not follow that.

    If you want basic instruction on the swing, I recommend “Getting Back to Basics” by Tom Watson, “Five Fundamentals” by Steve Elkington, and/or “Swing Like a Pro” by Ralph Mann. Stay away from Hogan at all costs.

    • LarryG

      Dec 23, 2017 at 2:41 am

      HERESY!!!! Hogan and even Homer are sacred names in the world of golf swing understanding and to desecrate their names will get you a forum fatwah …!!!

  10. Mj

    Dec 22, 2017 at 7:52 pm

    Read the top right of the life magazine cover it says Hogan tells his secrets. Tell the secret means this a secret which is in the article
    Not this might be his secret.

    • LarryG

      Dec 23, 2017 at 2:43 am

      No no… it’s buried in The Amazing World of Insects article…!!!

  11. CB

    Dec 22, 2017 at 6:14 pm

    The only secret is that he had to hit thousands of balls just to maintain his swing.

    • LarryG

      Dec 23, 2017 at 2:46 am

      … and that’s what weird Moe “Pipeline” Norman did while proclaiming he he was the G.O.A.T. swinger of the golf club, at his demos and on his youtube videos too!!!

  12. FG

    Dec 22, 2017 at 4:46 pm

    Jim Furyk’s right elbow isn’t connected to his right hip at all so that must means he’s a terrible ball-striker, right? Shooting 58 and 59 with a bogey, how bad is that?

    • roger

      Dec 23, 2017 at 2:46 pm

      It’s painful watching Furyk’s loopy swing.

      • Wizardofflatstickmountain

        Dec 23, 2017 at 6:21 pm

        Yeah, totally gross and an offense to my eyes.

        That swing has produced over $67MM in earnings.

        I’m sure your swing looks like a poem wrapped in a rainbow.

        • roger

          Dec 24, 2017 at 1:57 am

          You are correct when you say you are sure my swing looks like a poem wrapped in a rainbow… 99.9 mph too ….!

  13. HennyBogan67

    Dec 22, 2017 at 2:24 pm

    Nice article which reveals absolutely nothing! The secret is not in the downswing but how Hogan got to the top with his left wrist cupped. I think I found it and won’t reveal it here but ask yourself how did he go from a flat wrist at the 9 o’clock position to a cupped one at the top. The secret is always in the hands. Ben’s was miles ahead of everyone’s. If you figure it out, it will take you 3 swings to improve your ballstriking exponentially. The secret allows me to play Mizuno MP-4’s at 62 years old and to rip every iron in the bag with a tiny draw. Good luck, it’s worth the effort.

    • Ur_A_Bogan

      Dec 22, 2017 at 5:12 pm

      Wow dude seriously, do you not realize the absolute hypocrisy in your comment. “This Bogan goes on and claims he knows about Hogan’s secret but actually reveals nothing!” As you directly follow that with a sentence about how you’ve found Hogan’s TRUE secret, and yet you just can’t tell us plebs about it here. Get over yourself.

    • roger

      Dec 23, 2017 at 2:51 pm

      A cupped wrist at the top suggests that the ligaments on the palm side of wrist are weak compared to the ligaments on the top of the wrist. These are the finger ligaments that go through the carpal tunnel and then into the elbow.
      The unequal ligament strength causes the wrist to cup when the club lever at the top goes into reversal.
      A flat wrist is anatomically neutral while a cupped wrist is in palmar extension.

  14. Marnix

    Dec 22, 2017 at 1:09 pm

    Thanks for this carefully written insight. Whether your observation of the low right elbow happens to be ‘the secret’ or not is somewhat irrelevant, but your explanation on why it is important will certainly be helpful to many. Coincidentally or not, this is exactly what I have been working on for the past 6 months and my ball striking has improved and my scores are inching lower.

  15. Frank

    Dec 22, 2017 at 11:53 am

    When I stated in golf 50 years ago I struggled until
    I read the first Hogan book. I was hooked on Hogan and fought a slice forever. I even practiced the Hogan grip for hours in my spare time. I took lessons, lots of lessons, and read every other theory (and tried them out) always coming back to Hogan. Finally after retirement and all of my flexibility and strength gone with my youth I looked at the Hogan swing sequence then Nicklaus then Trevino then all of my past heroes swings and picked up a pen flashlight put my Hogan grip on it with the light on mimicking the butt of the grip and traced my swing slowly on the rug. I transitioned to a strong grip, a 10 finger grip , a weak grip and found that if I traced the in to out swing I would come to impact in a square position. What was really surprising was my right arm position looked like Hogan’s Eureka. I’m now breaking 40 constantly and with less effort. At age 78 I think I got it.

    • roger

      Dec 23, 2017 at 2:43 pm

      So you only play 9 holes?
      Do you walk and push a trolley or carry a bag… or do you ride a cart?

  16. toyzrx

    Dec 22, 2017 at 11:52 am

    Probably wasn’t anything ground breaking but was a personal swing key he held which he did not want to share with anyone. Maybe he wanted to covey to us in silence that there was not such things as secrets in golf swing or golf period.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open betting preview

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As the Florida swing comes to an end, the PGA Tour makes its way to Houston to play the Texas Children’s Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course.

This will be the fourth year that Memorial Park Golf Course will serve as the tournament host. The event did not take place in 2023, but the course hosted the event in 2020, 2021 and 2022.

Memorial Park is a par-70 layout measuring 7,432 yards and features Bermudagrass greens. Historically, the main defense for the course has been thick rough along the fairways and tightly mown runoff areas around the greens. Memorial Park has a unique setup that features three Par 5’s and five Par 3’s.

The field will consist of 132 players, with the top 65 and ties making the cut. There are some big names making the trip to Houston, including Scottie Scheffler, Wyndham Clark, Tony Finau, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala.

Past Winners at Memorial Park

  • 2022: Tony Finau (-16)
  • 2021: Jason Kokrak (-10)
  • 2020: Carlos Ortiz (-13)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Memorial Park

Let’s take a look at several metrics for Memorial Park to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds:

Strokes Gained: Approach

Memorial Park is a pretty tough golf course. Golfers are penalized for missing greens and face some difficult up and downs to save par. Approach will be key.

Total Strokes Gained: Approach per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.30)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.26)
  3. Keith Mitchell (+0.97) 
  4. Tony Finau (+0.92)
  5. Jake Knapp (+0.84)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Memorial Park is a long golf course with rough that can be penal. Therefore, a combination of distance and accuracy is the best metric.

Total Strokes Gained: Off the Tee per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+0.94)
  2. Kevin Dougherty (+0.93)
  3. Cameron Champ (+0.86)
  4. Rafael Campos (+0.84)
  5. Si Woo Kim (+0.70)

Strokes Gained Putting: Bermudagrass + Fast

The Bermudagrass greens played fairly fast the past few years in Houston. Jason Kokrak gained 8.7 strokes putting on his way to victory in 2021 and Tony Finau gained in 7.8 in 2022.

Total Strokes Gained Putting (Bermudagrass) per round past 24 rounds (min. 8 rounds):

  1. Adam Svensson (+1.27)
  2. Harry Hall (+1.01)
  3. Martin Trainer (+0.94)
  4. Taylor Montgomery (+0.88)
  5. S.H. Kim (+0.86)

Strokes Gained: Around the Green

With firm and undulating putting surfaces, holding the green on approach shots may prove to be a challenge. Memorial Park has many tightly mowed runoff areas, so golfers will have challenging up-and-down’s around the greens. Carlos Ortiz gained 5.7 strokes around the green on the way to victory in 2020.

Total Strokes Gained: Around the Green per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Mackenzie Hughes (+0.76)
  2. S.H. Kim (+0.68)
  3. Scottie Scheffler (+0.64)
  4. Jorge Campillo (+0.62)
  5. Jason Day (+0.60)

Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult

Memorial Park is a long and difficult golf course. This statistic will incorporate players who’ve had success on these types of tracks in the past. 

Total Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.45)
  2. Ben Griffin (+1.75)
  3. Will Zalatoris (+1.73)
  4. Ben Taylor (+1.53)
  5. Tony Finau (+1.42)

Course History

Here are the players who have performed the most consistently at Memorial Park. 

Strokes Gained Total at Memorial Park past 12 rounds:

  1. Tyson Alexander (+3.65)
  2. Ben Taylor (+3.40)
  3. Tony Finau (+2.37)
  4. Joel Dahmen (+2.25)
  5. Patton Kizzire (+2.16)

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (24%) SG: OTT (24%); SG: Putting Bermudagrass/Fast (13%); SG: Long and Difficult (13%); SG: ARG (13%) and Course History (13%)

  1. Scottie Scheffler
  2. Wyndham Clark
  3. Tony Finau
  4. Joel Dahmen
  5. Stephan Jaeger 
  6. Aaron Rai
  7. Sahith Theegala
  8. Keith Mitchell 
  9. Jhonnatan Vegas
  10. Jason Day
  11. Kurt Kitayama
  12. Alex Noren
  13. Will Zalatoris
  14. Si Woo Kim
  15. Adam Long

2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open Picks

Will Zalatoris +2000 (Caesars)

Scottie Scheffler will undoubtedly be difficult to beat this week, so I’m starting my card with someone who I believe has the talent to beat him if he doesn’t have his best stuff.

Will Zalatoris missed the cut at the PLAYERS, but still managed to gain strokes on approach while doing so. In an unpredictable event with extreme variance, I don’t believe it would be wise to discount Zalatoris based on that performance. Prior to The PLAYERS, the 27-year-old finished T13, T2 and T4 in his previous three starts.

Zalatoris plays his best golf on long and difficult golf courses. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the category, but the eye test also tells a similar story. He’s contended at major championships and elevated events in the best of fields with tough scoring conditions.  The Texas resident should be a perfect fit at Memorial Park Golf Club.

Alex Noren +4500 (FanDuel)

Alex Noren has been quietly playing some of his best golf of the last half decade this season. The 41-year-old is coming off back-to-back top-20 finishes in Florida including a T9 at The PLAYERS in his most recent start.

In his past 24 rounds, Noren ranks 21st in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 30th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, 25th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses and 21st in Strokes Gained: Putting on fast Bermudagrass greens.

In addition to his strong recent play, the Swede also has played well at Memorial Park. In 2022, Noren finished T4 at the event, gaining 2.2 strokes off the tee and 7.0 strokes on approach for the week. In his two starts at the course, he’s gained an average of .6 strokes per round on the field, indicating he is comfortable on these greens.

Noren has been due for a win for what feels like an eternity, but Memorial Park may be the course that suits him well enough for him to finally get his elusive first PGA Tour victory.

Mackenzie Hughes +8000 (FanDuel)

Mackenzie Hughes found himself deep into contention at last week’s Valspar Championship before faltering late and finishing in a tie for 3rd place. While he would have loved to win the event, it’s hard to see the performance as anything other than an overwhelming positive sign for the Canadian.

Hughes has played great golf at Memorial Park in the past. He finished T7 in 2020, T29 in 2021 and T16 in 2022. The course fit seems to be quite strong for Hughes. He’s added distance off the tee in the past year or and ranks 8th in the field for apex height, which will be a key factor when hitting into Memorial Park’s elevated greens with steep run-off areas.

In his past 24 rounds, Hughes is the best player in the field in Strokes Gained: Around the Greens. The ability to scramble at this course will be extremely important. I believe Hughes can build off of his strong finish last week and contend once again to cement himself as a President’s Cup consideration.

Akshay Bhatia +8000 (FanDuel)

Akshay Bhatia played well last week at the Valspar and seemed to be in total control of his golf ball. He finished in a tie for 17th and shot an impressive -3 on a difficult Sunday. After struggling Thursday, Akshay shot 68-70-68 in his next three rounds.

Thus far, Bhatia has played better at easier courses, but his success at Copperhead may be due to his game maturing. The 22-year-old has enormous potential and the raw talent to be one of the best players in the world when he figures it all out.

Bhatia is a high upside play with superstar qualities and may just take the leap forward to the next stage of his career in the coming months.

Cameron Champ +12000 (FanDuel)

Cameron Champ is a player I often target in the outright betting market due to his “boom-or-bust” nature. It’s hard to think of a player in recent history with three PGA Tour wins who’s been as inconsistent as Champ has over the course of his career.

Despite the erratic play, Cam Champ simply knows how to win. He’s won in 2018, 2019 and 2021, so I feel he’s due for a win at some point this season. The former Texas A&M product should be comfortable in Texas and last week he showed us that his game is in a pretty decent spot.

Over his past 24 rounds, Champ ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 30th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses. Given his ability to spike at any given time, Memorial Park is a good golf course to target Champ on at triple digit odds.

Robert MacIntyre +12000 (FanDuel)

The challenge this week is finding players who can possibly beat Scottie Scheffler while also not dumping an enormous amount of money into an event that has a player at the top that looks extremely dangerous. Enter McIntyre, who’s another boom-or-bust type player who has the ceiling to compete with anyone when his game is clicking on all cylinders.

In his past 24 rounds, MacIntyre ranks 16th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 17th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and 10th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses.

MacIntyre’s PGA Tour season has gotten off to a slow start, but he finished T6 in Mexico, which is a course where players will hit driver on the majority of their tee shots, which is what we will see at Memorial Park. Texas can also get quite windy, which should suit MacIntyre. Last July, the Scot went toe to toe with Rory McIlroy at the Scottish Open before a narrow defeat. It would take a similar heroic effort to compete with Scheffler this year in Houston.

Ryan Moore +15000 (FanDuel)

Ryan Moore’s iron play has been absolutely unconscious over his past few starts. At The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field, he gained 6.1 strokes on approach and last week at Copperhead, he gained 9.0 strokes on approach.

It’s been a rough handful of years on Tour for the 41-year-old, but he is still a five-time winner on the PGA Tour who’s young enough for a career resurgence. Moore has chronic deterioration in a costovertebral joint that connects the rib to the spine, but has been getting more consistent of late, which is hopefully a sign that he is getting healthy.

Veterans have been contending in 2024 and I believe taking a flier on a proven Tour play who’s shown signs of life is a wise move at Memorial Park.

 

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Why the race to get better at golf might be doing more harm than good

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B.F. Skinner was one of the most important psychologists of the 20th century, developing the foundation of the development of reinforcement, and in doing so, creating the concept of behaviorism. In simple terms, this means that we are conditioned by our habits. In practical terms, it explains the divide between the few and far between elite instructors and college coaches.

To understand the application, let’s quickly review one of B.F. Skinner’s most important experiments; superstitions in the formation of behavior by pigeons. In this experiment, food was dispensed to pigeons at random intervals. Soon, according to Skinner, the pigeons began to associate whatever action they were doing at the time of the food being dispensed. According to Skinner, this conditioned that response and soon, they simply haphazardly repeated the action, failing to distinguish between cause and correlation (and in the meantime, looking really funny!).

Now, this is simply the best way to describe the actions of most every women’s college golf coach and too many instructors in America. They see something work, get positive feedback and then become conditioned to give the feedback, more and more, regardless of if it works (this is also why tips from your buddies never work!).

Go to a college event, particularly a women’s one, and you will see coaches running all over the place. Like the pigeons in the experiment, they have been conditioned into a codependent relationship with their players in which they believe their words and actions, can transform a round of golf. It is simply hilarious while being equally perturbing

In junior golf, it’s everywhere. Junior golf academies make a living selling parents that a hysterical coach and over-coaching are essential ingredients in your child’s success.

Let’s be clear, no one of any intellect has any real interest in golf — because it’s not that interesting. The people left, including most coaches and instructors, carve out a small fiefdom, usually on the corner of the range, where they use the illusion of competency to pray on people. In simple terms, they baffle people with the bullshit of pseudo-science that they can make you better, after just one more lesson.

The reality is that life is an impromptu game. The world of golf, business, and school have a message that the goal is being right. This, of course, is bad advice, being right in your own mind is easy, trying to push your ideas on others is hard. As a result, it is not surprising that the divorce rate among golf professionals and their instructors is 100 percent. The transfer rate among college players continues to soar, and too many courses have a guy peddling nefarious science to good people. In fact, we do at my course!

The question is, what impact does all this have on college-age and younger kids? At this point, we honestly don’t know. However, I am going to go out on a limb and say it isn’t good.

Soren Kierkegaard once quipped “I saw it for what it is, and I laughed.” The actions of most coaches and instructors in America are laughable. The problem is that I am not laughing because they are doing damage to kids, as well as driving good people away from this game.

The fact is that golfers don’t need more tips, secrets, or lessons. They need to be presented with a better understanding of the key elements of golf. With this understanding, they can then start to frame which information makes sense and what doesn’t. This will emancipate them and allow them to take charge of their own development.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Valspar Championship betting preview: Elite ballstrikers to thrive at Copperhead

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The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2024 Valspar Championship.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermudagrass greens overseeded with POA. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 16, 17 and 18 — also known as the “Snake Pit” — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.

The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. The field this week is solid and is a major improvement over last year’s field that felt the impact of players skipping due to a handful of “signature events” in a short span of time. 

Past Winners at Valspar Championship

  • 2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
  • 2022: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
  • 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
  • 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
  • 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
  • 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Copperhead

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can’t be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)

  1. Tony Finau (+.90)
  2. Nick Taylor (+.81)
  3. Justin Thomas (+.77)
  4. Greyson Sigg (+.69)
  5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+.67)

2. Good Drive %

The long hitters can be a bit limited here due to the tree-lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important, but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.

Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+91.3%) 
  2. Zach Johnson (+91.1%)
  3. Sam Ryder (+90.5%)
  4. Ryan Moore (+90.4%)
  5. Aaron Rai (+89.7%)

3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1.32)
  2. Keith Mitchell (+1.29)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.24)
  4. Cameron Young (+1.17) 
  5. Doug Ghim (+.95)

4. Bogey Avoidance

With the conditions likely to be difficult, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, oftentimes the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.

Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.

Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+9.0)
  2. Xander Schauffele (+9.3)
  3. Austin Cook (+9.7) 
  4. Chesson Hadley (+10.0)
  5. Greyson Sigg (+10.2)

5. Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions

Conditions will be tough this week at Copperhead. I am looking for golfers who can rise to the occasion if the course plays as difficult as it has in the past.

Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1,71) 
  2. Min Woo Lee (+1.39)
  3. Cameron Young (+1.27)
  4. Jordan Spieth (+1.08)
  5. Justin Suh (+.94)

6. Course History

That statistic will tell us which players have played well at Copperhead in the past.

Course History Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+3.75) 
  2. Sam Burns (+2.49)
  3. Davis Riley (+2.33)
  4. Matt NeSmith (+2.22)
  5. Jordan Spieth (+2.04)

The Valspar Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Good Drive % (15%), SG: BS (20%), Bogeys Avoided (13%), Course History (13%) Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions (12%).

  1. Xander Schauffele
  2. Doug Ghim
  3. Victor Perez
  4. Greyson Sigg
  5. Ryan Moore
  6. Tony Finau
  7. Justin Thomas
  8. Sam Ryder
  9. Sam Burns
  10. Lucas Glover

2024 Valspar Championship Picks

Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)

Justin Thomas will be disappointed with his finish at last week’s PLAYERS Championship, as the past champion missed the cut despite being in some decent form heading into the event. Despite the missed cut, JT hit the ball really well. In his two rounds, the two-time major champion led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach per round.

Thomas has been up and down this season. He’s missed the cut in two “signature events” but also has finishes of T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T6 at the Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am and T3 at the American Express. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in the field.

Thomas loves Copperhead. In his last three tries at the course, he’s finished T13, T3 and T10. Thomas would have loved to get a win at a big event early in the season, but avoidable mistakes and a balky putter have cost him dearly. I believe a trip to a course he loves in a field he should be able to capitalize on is the right recipe for JT to right the ship.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (FanDuel)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is playing spectacular golf in the 2024 season. He finished 2nd at the American Express, T20 at Pebble Beach and T24 at the Genesis Invitational before finishing T13 at last week’s PLAYERS Championship.

In his past 24 rounds, the South African ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 26th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. Bezuidenhout managed to work his way around TPC Sawgrass last week with minimal damage. He only made five bogeys in the entire week, which is a great sign heading into a difficult Copperhead this week.

Bezuidenhout is winless in his PGA Tour career, but certainly has the talent to win on Tour. His recent iron play tells me that this week could be a breakthrough for the 35-year-old who has eyes on the President’s Cup.

Doug Ghim +8000 (FanDuel)

Doug Ghim has finished in the top-16 of his past five starts. Most recently, Ghim finished T16 at The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field.

In his past 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 5th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. In terms of his fit for Copperhead, the 27-year-old ranks 12th in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions, making him a great fit for the course.

Ghim has yet to win on Tour, but at one point he was the top ranked Amateur golfer in the world and played in the 2017 Arnold Palmer Cup and 2017 Walker Cup. He then won the Ben Hogan award for the best male college golfer in 2018. He certainly has the talent, and there are signals aplenty that his talent in ready to take him to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour.

Sepp Straka +8000 (BetRivers)

Sepp Straka is a player who’s shown he has the type of game that can translate to a difficult Florida golf course. The former Presidents Cup participant won the 2022 Honda Classic in tough conditions and should thrive with a similar test at Copperhead.

It’s been a slow 2024 for Straka, but his performance last week at the PLAYERS Championship surely provides some optimism. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach as well as 1.88 strokes off the tee. The tee-to-green game Straka showed on a course with plenty of danger demonstrates that he can stay in control of his golf ball this week.

It’s possible that the strong performance last week was an outlier, but I’m willing to bet on a proven winner in a weaker field at a great number.

Victor Perez +12000 (FanDuel)

Victor Perez is no stranger to success in professional golf. The Frenchman has three DP World Tour wins including a Rolex Series event. He won the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, as well as the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which are some big events.

Perez earned his PGA Tour card this season and enters the week playing some fantastic golf. He finished in a tie for 16th in Florida at the Cognizant Classic and then tied for third in his most recent start at the Puerto Rico Open.

In his past 24 rounds in the field, Perez ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 1oth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Good Drive % and 15th in Bogey Avoidance.

Perez comes in as a perfect fit for Copperhead and offers serious value at triple-digit odds.

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