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3 Reasons you should watch more women’s golf on TV

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If you play golf, you probably watch golf on TV, too. For most, that probably means tuning into men’s events, or at least the four major championships.

But I have a question for you: Why do you watch men’s golf?

It’s completely understandable to want to watch the best and most popular golfers in the world. It’s exciting to watch the golfers you know and love, and witness them blasting 300-yard drives. That being said, if you’re looking to improve your own game, I suggest flipping on an LPGA Tour event, at least once in a while. The players are precise, consistent, and dominant in totally different ways — ways that likely look more comparable to your own golf game. Want to know why? Here are three reasons you should pick up the slack when it comes to watching women’s golf.

1) Shotmaking

LPGA Tour courses (based on their average length) require shots similar to the ones played by the average golfer. While impressive, it’s challenging for me to relate to players in the men’s game who hit a 9-iron almost 200 yards. Most of us don’t have that shot in our bag. It’s more beneficial to me, and to most average male golfers, to see how LPGA golfers manage a golf course and the various shots. For instance, most golfers cannot go for the green on par-5 in two from 290 yards, so what yardage are the women laying up to? How are they attacking a 320-yard hole that isn’t drivable for them, or how do they deal with the second shot from 220 yards on a long par-4?

You can learn a lot from LPGA players in how they maneuver around a golf course while hitting the golf ball similar distances that you do.

2) Swing Speeds

With the average swing speed on the PGA Tour being 113 mph with a driver, it’s a pretty tough thing to duplicate – even for the very low-handicapped amateur player. The average swing speed for a 14-handicap male player is around 93 mph, which is almost identical to the average speed of an LPGA Tour player (94 mph). There’s a rhythm and a tempo that comes along with that speed, which the everyday player can identify with. Next time you tune into the LPGA Tour, put a golf club in your hand and mimic their tempo; this may help you smooth out your transition, or learn to slow down altogether!

3) Accuracy

Professional women golfers play the game how most people want to play (or, how most people should try to play). They are unbelievably accurate, rarely hit it out of play and are very consistent. These players will reinforce the lessons amateur golfers receive from their instructors. Every time I turn on coverage, I am amazed by the course management skills of every player. They rarely find themselves in a precarious position. I think every amateur golfer’s game would improve by channeling some of the accuracy of these women. The bomb-and-gouge style of play often seen on the PGA Tour is effective, but only if you have the strength and speed to escape from the rough or other difficult situations that style leads to.

Let’s be clear: This is not to say that the phenomenal talent that you see week-in and week-out on the men’s tour isn’t worth watching – it is. But if you’re a golfer interested in all aspects of the game (and bettering the parts that you struggle with), you should be flipping on women’s golf coverage, as well. If you’ve got a tee time the next day and don’t have time to get or watch a lesson? Watch a few holes of that week’s women’s event. It’s important to absorb information to improve your game. The men may have the daring feats that everyone wants to pull off, but the women have the game that will translate easier to yours. Do yourself, and your game, a favor and check them out.

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Liz (Carl) Fradkin is the Championship Manager for the U.S. Women's Amateur Championship, Team Manager for the Curtis Cup and Women's World Amateur Teams and a PGA-USGA Rules of Golf workshop instructor. Prior to joining the USGA, Liz was captain of the Rutgers University women's varsity golf team.

68 Comments

68 Comments

  1. Randy Wall

    Jan 29, 2018 at 4:33 pm

    I enjoy watching the women play as much as the men. I think they play courses smarter, and have helped me to have good golf IQ.

  2. Stephen Finley

    Jan 9, 2018 at 12:27 am

    Male tour players don’t actually hit the ball “almost 200 yards with a 9-iron.” Nowhere near it under normal conditions. Check USGA numbers for average 5-iron length on tour.

    Aside from that, there are more reasons than “they’re a scaled-down version of the men’s tour, and the scaling down allows lower-quality players to relate to them and model their games after them.” In fact, I’d say that’s not even true. Anywhere near the top of the women’s game you’re going to see women hitting it 260-270 and up, often 300 or more when conditions are right. It’s unbelievable how far they hit it now, often within a club or club and a half of the guys. And the skill level is just way, _way_ ahead of where it was when I was a kid. It used to be that on the rare LPGA event you saw televised, you might see a couple of shots close to the pin all day. Maybe four or five. Today, it’s not unusual at all to see a three-player group with three shots by the hole, or two out of three. You’ll see more shots tight in half an hour now than you used to see in an entire round of coverage 20 or 30 years ago, more in one tournament than you used to see all year.

    As for having 290 to the green on a par-5, I’ve actually seen more than a couple of women pull _that_ off. Might take slightly favorable conditions, but the days of making a living on the LPGA tour driving it 240 and hitting 210-yard 3-woods, trying to keep it around par with a tidy short game, etc., are way over.

    I’m not disparaging the women in previous generations — there have always been great players out there — but the strength and speed now, and the level of play, is just incredible. The PGA Tour is always talking about how it’s the “greatest generation ever” (not even close) and how “these guys are good” (they are, but not as insanely perfect as they’re marketed to be), but it’s the _women_ who have made the biggest strides.

  3. JD

    Jan 7, 2018 at 10:15 pm

    If you can tell the difference between a 350 yard drive and 250 through your t.v., you’re probably in the wrong line of work. Women’s golf looks exactly the same on t.v. and I definitely enjoy watching it so long as the coverage is good.

  4. CrashTestDummy

    Jan 5, 2018 at 9:03 pm

    The women on the LPGA are so good. I think a lot of people don’t realize how good they are. They are shooting in the 60s regularly at pretty tough tracks.

    Try shooting under par at any of your tough local tracks with total yardage of 6000-6700 yards. Not many can say that they can do that.

  5. Bruce Ferguson

    Jan 4, 2018 at 11:08 am

    I have to wonder how LPGA events are covered in the Asian television markets, because in recent years, there has been such a dominance of Asian tour players. I know at least on KBS (the Korean television channel I occasionally watched through a former satellite provider), they made a big deal of LPGA golf tournament results in their sports segments. There seems to be keen public interest in women’s golf.

    I hope that The Golf Channel and network television would commit to providing more LPGA content to expose the game to more American women, and thereby increase overall viewership. There are enough empty voids in Golf Channels line-up as it is. Instead of running Tin Cup and Bagger Vance re-runs hundreds of times, why not run women’s golf features, like exclusive interviews, or a show featuring a female “Feherty” (Christina Kim comes to mind)?

  6. BigSculpin

    Jan 3, 2018 at 12:53 pm

    I would love to watch more LPGA golf but I would have to get the GOLF Channel to do so.

    • Stephen Finley

      Jan 9, 2018 at 12:33 am

      Yeah, that’s a shame. They deserve a wider audience, with the level of play today.

    • Mike

      Jan 23, 2018 at 8:14 pm

      I have the golf channel & would love to watch more women’s golf. They really don’t show much.

  7. Nick Nack

    Dec 30, 2017 at 6:46 pm

    The 4th reason:
    Women’s golf needs more viewers because no one is interested.

  8. Kirk Dunn

    Dec 27, 2017 at 11:34 pm

    Way way ahead of you….been doing this fir qyite awhile….they play same ydg courses as most of us do too

    • steve2

      Dec 30, 2017 at 4:50 pm

      …. and I can think of another additional 3 reasons to watch more women’s golf on TV.

  9. Mike Eovino

    Dec 20, 2017 at 9:26 pm

    Liz – You nailed it. As the father of two female junior golfers (and big Lexi Thompson fans), we watch plenty of LPGA golf. They’re a lot better than I am from the tees I play from.

    • Klaus

      Dec 25, 2017 at 1:41 am

      …. and you won’t see a LPGA player pregnant 6 months and trying to swing a golf club…. but I see plenty of men with pot bellies pregnant with fat trying to play golf. It’s hideous and pathetic.

      • peter

        Dec 25, 2017 at 1:42 pm

        …. ouch!

      • Stephen Finley

        Jan 9, 2018 at 12:32 am

        Where are you seeing “plenty of men with pot bellies” playing professional golf at approximately the same ages as the women?

  10. Luke keefner

    Dec 20, 2017 at 5:15 pm

    I like watching LPGA events but our tv coverage sucks in the USA. To many commercials, too many talking heads to many “special stories” to plow through. It’s as if the networks think golf isn’t exciting enough so they have to pump it up somehow. Like baseball. I prefer watching the European tour, I can’t pronounce many of the names, but the coverage is all about the golf, and you can tell the announcers love and play the game. And I don’t have to hear about what college the players went to and how HUGE of a fan they are of there college football teams. Over and over and over. I don’t care!

    • Luke keefner

      Dec 20, 2017 at 5:17 pm

      Correction “ their college football teams”. Sorry

    • peter

      Dec 25, 2017 at 1:45 pm

      I mute my tv when watching golf, tennis, basketball, soccer, and football. It’s amazing how much better it is without the sound of screaming fans and nonsensical commentary. I can see what is happening without distractions…. and when the commercial comes on I stand up and stretch for flexibility.

    • Bert

      Dec 26, 2017 at 6:14 pm

      Judy Rankin and er talking points are a huge distraction in addition to the excessive babbling by others.

  11. Larry Schmidt

    Dec 20, 2017 at 3:08 pm

    I would love to watch the ladies play this great game but when 95% of all womens golf is only on the golf channel and only the majors on national TV it’s kind of hard to watch. If you want to grow the game then get the game on national television.

  12. Joro

    Dec 20, 2017 at 2:12 pm

    My ex Daughter in Law caddied for years on the tour for Faldo, Stenson, and others and when asked she caddied for Michelle Wie in a few events. After caddying for Wie she said that men should be watching the women more because it is more realistic to most men in distance, management, and swings. She said the men are too unrealistic to be watching the big hits and long irons and play the game they can’t.

    Great article.

    • Peter Douglas

      Dec 21, 2017 at 7:36 am

      Her name wouldn’t happen to be Fannie would it?

  13. Razor

    Dec 20, 2017 at 12:53 pm

    Great article and rings true. I’m sure the younger golfers think this article is totally wrong. They just love smashing the ball. I’m in my 50’s and out drive most of the 25-35 year olds in the club. I’ve always said watch the LPGA they are great players and like your article states. More close to an average golfers swing speed and distance. Played in a KPMG Major Pro Am and ALL the girls were super friendly and totally respected the amateur golfer. One even gave me her range spot! Yes. They are easy on the eyes. But they have game and can totally kick our butts. They are good. Please watch and learn how to shoot lower scores.

    • peter

      Dec 25, 2017 at 1:47 pm

      What do you “watch” when looking at LPGA players? Be specific.

  14. bonifacj

    Dec 20, 2017 at 12:46 pm

    Don’t watch a lot of golf, but love watching LPGA pros swing. In large measure, swing tempos just gorgeous. Similar to watching Els swing.

    • stevek

      Dec 20, 2017 at 1:49 pm

      I occasionally like to watch LPGA players to study how they develop their kinetic energy chain from the ground up to their shoulder torque rotation.
      Their swings are very smooth and slower than the men’s swings but it’s easier to see their legs, hips and shoulder rotation mechanics… because the women wear shorts and skirts that expose their leg and hip action.
      Most don’t wear baggy pants like the men so it’s easier to see their kinetic chain developing. The ladies come in different shapes and sizes so it’s interesting to see how they manage their swing mechanics.

  15. Skip

    Dec 20, 2017 at 12:34 pm

    I watch the LPGA, but my 170mph driver ball speed doesn’t really translate well to their games. Still, can really appreciate the level of skill.

    • DougE

      Jan 27, 2018 at 8:53 am

      Not sure I understand. What about the part of the game where you have to get the ball in the hole? All the swing speed in the world doesn’t do that. This game is about accuracy so much more than it is about distance, at least in my opinion. Sure distances helps, but it is not the be all end all. I’m guessing you don’t hit 100% of your fairways and greens with all that distance and speed, so how can you not relate to playing like the women do around the greens, and on approach shots for that matter. I don’t get your logic. No disrespect meant.

  16. Taylor

    Dec 20, 2017 at 12:27 pm

    Women golfers are outstanding players. But they play like robots, there’s no excitement or fist pumps or any emotion.

  17. Dave Freeman

    Dec 20, 2017 at 12:07 pm

    I agree Liz. When watching women’s golf, I have always been impressed with how good their swings are. They seem to move the way instructional videos teach you to move.

  18. Chris

    Dec 20, 2017 at 11:59 am

    Are you kidding?? Who watches women’s golf for the golf??

  19. Jack Nash

    Dec 20, 2017 at 11:49 am

    I watch to count how many caddies line up a supposed Pro. I also enjoy using my sun dial to time the decision making process before an actual shot is hit. There’s Maybe 15 females worth watching on the LPGA that have a game. Other than that it’s just a fashion show.

  20. frank cichon

    Dec 20, 2017 at 11:47 am

    I try to watch the LPGA. It is TOO SLOW! The odd time when the camera picks them up running from a tee box…it makes me laugh. Why not enforce the rules and save 30-45 minutes per round. Regarding the article…..I do not recall seeing ( in this century) any LPGA player hitting a 200 yard second shot to any par 4 (is possible if she mishit her drive) Again life is too short to spend watching the LPGA. Hope Santa brings me a new PVR as I wore mine out watching golf on TV

  21. Big Wally

    Dec 20, 2017 at 11:45 am

    The women do not hit it closer and their short games are not nearly as good as the men and their putting is not as good.
    I tune in but it is like watching paint dry. The are slow and humorless.

  22. Marc

    Dec 20, 2017 at 11:42 am

    Liz:
    I volunteer at an LPGA event every year. My assignment is the range. The range is like getting a backstage pass to rock concert. I see everything. Even though there are women on the LPGA tour who are very long, there is also many players who hit drives less than 250 yards. The difference is their wedge play. It’s uncanny how good they are from 125 yards and in. And the reason they are so good is that they PRACTICE! They practice for hours and hit hundreds of balls. And they are extremely nice to the fans.

  23. Brenden Grant

    Dec 20, 2017 at 11:40 am

    Hey all: Great article Liz spot on. I’ve been saying for years That GolfWRX should do more LPGA witb and not just from tournament winners since their bag setups just like the way they play a course is more like how most amateurs play. Thanks…????????????????

  24. fran

    Dec 20, 2017 at 11:38 am

    Great article ! I would watch the LPGA more if they showed the analytics and visual track and trace data that is shown for the PGA players. It`s a little boring listening to the announcers when the visual data is so much more compelling and informative.

  25. Gregory M Haney

    Dec 20, 2017 at 11:38 am

    I am an avid fan of the LPGA and have been to many of their tournaments both overseas and in the USA. Having said that I have numerous complaints. First the TV coverage is less than ideal ( I am being kind here!) as are a few of the announcers. I would like to watch some golf with a few commercials in between instead of Watching so many commercials with a little golf in between!! Here is what I often see; three putts, one swing, go to commercial. Two putts two swings and go to commercial. A number of the tournaments are so bad with this that I turn it off. And most of the coverage is just about putting. With certain announcers, I hit the mute every time they speak. I won’t go into names but some of the announcers should have been gone a long, long time ago. Kudos to Kay Cockerill and Karen Stupples and a few others.

    I have measured several tournaments. Most all of the time the distances are not what their score card is showing, i.e they are shorter on many holes.

    In many of the tournaments I have been to, there is often a long gap between the next group, in other words you can sit on a hole and there is no one in sight for some time.

    Yes, the PGA is guilty of many of the same things. I was just watching a rerun of the HSBC Champions from China this past October. In the 4th round, it took 2:45 minutes to play 9 holes!!! And that is with a two some or three some. No lost balls, no lengthy rulings, some wind. Pro golfers who smoke it long and very straight for the most part. 2:45 for 9 holes is insane!! I know the PGA issued its’ first penalty this past season since when was it, 1999!!!!!

    I know the coverage of the LPGA does not have as many cameras as for the PGA, but I would like to see more of the other golfers as well instead of watching the leaders do 18″ tap ins!!!!!!

    So, my summary is that if you want better exposure and more people to watch, IMPROVE THE TV COVERAGE (and announcers). Many other male watchers that I speak to about this absolutely agree with me. I met Mike Whan several years ago, twice at tournaments in Asia and would sure like to share my thoughts with him :-).

  26. Gord

    Dec 20, 2017 at 11:37 am

    I tell my friends all time – if you want to improve, watch the LPGA. Watch them in slow motion to see how a 100lb woman can hit the ball 260yds – straight. Most men that I play with can’t do that – me included!

  27. Rob

    Dec 20, 2017 at 11:19 am

    Liz, this article is spot on. Well done!!

  28. Alphonso Dubachette

    Dec 20, 2017 at 11:09 am

    Great article Liz! I couldn’t agree more that as amateurs we all should watch the LPGA and how they use course management. My wife has asked me why I watch the women play, and I’ve given her the same answer. Realistically they play similar to us so I like to see what yardages they’re playing and clubs they use. Of course I watch the PGA, but if I could hit my 7-iron 200yds+ I wouldn’t be a 12.5 handicap. This was probably one the best and most relevant articles I’ve read in a long time.

  29. CB

    Dec 20, 2017 at 10:28 am

    This article is absolutely true. Sure I watch the PGA, who doesnt. But the LPGA (and champions IMO) are better to watch if you are trying to learn and take something away. The precision is amazing.

    Nice writeup.

  30. Rene

    Dec 20, 2017 at 9:15 am

    FInally! I can convince my wife that I watch the LPGA because of their game, not their long legs and short skirts! 😀

  31. BB

    Dec 20, 2017 at 8:00 am

    Awesome write up. Best one to me.

  32. Peter Douglas

    Dec 20, 2017 at 4:26 am

    I think they dumb it down to much. Watch the clubs they hit most of the time!
    LPGA stands for (Lob Wedge, Pitching Wedge, Gap Wedge….all day)!
    Some very good players but pace of play is tedious.

    • Jack Gallagher

      Dec 20, 2017 at 12:26 pm

      Good point Peter Douglas, if you mean the tournament organizers being the ones who dumb it down. Regardless of gender, they shouldn’t set up any course with par fours that are reachable with a driver and a wedge (of any variety) with the exception of the drive-able par four holes.

    • Skip

      Dec 20, 2017 at 12:31 pm

      LPGA, lol good one.

  33. TA

    Dec 20, 2017 at 3:39 am

    T, A, & L, right?

  34. t

    Dec 20, 2017 at 1:50 am

    reason #1 need a nap
    Reason #2 need a second nap
    Reason #3 need a third nap

  35. The dude

    Dec 19, 2017 at 9:41 pm

    Good article….something that is known, but worth reinforcing

  36. Davemac

    Dec 19, 2017 at 8:45 pm

    Slow play is the bane of professional golf, the game is almost unwatchable. Unfortunately the ladies are ever SLOWER than the men!
    The sooner they ban caddies from lining a player up along with the huge green reading books the better.

    Talented yes, more relevant yes, watchable no.

  37. Bruce Ferguson

    Dec 19, 2017 at 7:50 pm

    Agree on all three points. I wish that more LPGA events were broadcast . . . not only because I can relate more to their swing speed and distance, but to expose golf to more women. I think women who know very little about the game assume it’s “a man’s game”.

  38. Scott

    Dec 19, 2017 at 6:59 pm

    Totally agree and I’ve said your comments for years. LPGA players hit distance more in line with me. They’re shot making is amazing. Don’t get me wrong, watching the men on PGA hit a 350 yd is impressive but I’ll never do that. I walked the course one day during us open at trump and was amazed the distance and shot making I was seeing. Lexi crushed a drive I thought the cover came off the ball. Tremendous article.

  39. james

    Dec 19, 2017 at 6:19 pm

    You refer a lot to you…..Who is you, as this article is being read by many different people.

  40. David Alan Cheever

    Dec 19, 2017 at 5:40 pm

    I agree completely. I can relate so much more to how the ladies hit it. I went to an LPGA event once and was amazed how 80% of them landed their tee shots in an area the size of a blanket. well, almost, but damn.

    Watching the men is dull, frankly. Same swing on all of them. 9 million yard drives. yawn..

  41. SK

    Dec 19, 2017 at 5:38 pm

    I love to watch the ladies swing, particularly if they are wearing shorts or skirts and I can see their bare legs and their hip action going into their shoulder rotation.
    I’m not being sexist, I’m just saying that the male golfers are fully clothed and it’s difficult to analyze their leg and hip action under their pant legs.
    The golfswing kinetic energy chain starts at the feet and legs, and then into hip and shoulder rotation. This is where most of the ‘power’ is generated from the mass momentum of large body parts.
    Lady pros come in many sizes and shapes and their ability to swing a golf club is openly revealed if you can see the body unencumbered by baggy clothing. It’s good viewing if you know what to look for in the golfswing kinetic energy chain.

  42. Jonathan

    Dec 19, 2017 at 4:40 pm

    I agree with all your points. If given the choice between LPGA and Champions Tour I always watch LPGA. Competition is typically very tight on LPGA, which makes it enjoyable to watch.

  43. MRC

    Dec 19, 2017 at 4:15 pm

    Well said Liz. I watch LPGA events all the time. Rhythm and tempo is something I struggle with…..No better way to improve than to watch the LPGA.

  44. Rob

    Dec 19, 2017 at 4:03 pm

    Watching a few holes however, will take you about 3 hours as the pace of play is an embarrassment… and caddies lining players up! What is that. Otherwise, lpga/let tours are brilliant.

  45. Jim

    Dec 19, 2017 at 3:48 pm

    This is a fantastic article and i couldn’t agree more about the women’s game. They have similar carry distances to men but are just phenomenal in every aspect of the game. I really enjoy watching them but my only gripe is that the LPGA plays course way too short. They “say” they play at 6500 yards but never do and they always play them super firm and fast and seem to be hitting wedges all day outside of the par three. These women are talented, let them hit some longer clubs!

    • ChristopherKee

      Dec 19, 2017 at 5:06 pm

      I agree here. Ariya Jutanugarn plays an iron off the tee 99% of the time. She doesn’t even have a driver in her bag. I know golf shouldn’t be about “distance” but it shouldn’t be about just wedges either.

      • Andrew Pavlov

        Dec 20, 2017 at 10:12 am

        Golf is about getting the ball in the hole in the least number of strokes possible period and nothing else. Whatever clubs someone uses to do so are the right ones.

        • ChristopherKee

          Dec 20, 2017 at 11:51 am

          You’re correct. And I don’t care if they use a putter from tee to green to be honest, it would probably be entertaining to watch. My observation of the club used off the tee by Ariya was to the challenge, or lack of, some of the girls have off the tee on the course.

          I feel a lot of them are way better than the tour is showcasing. I would prefer the easier courses to be a bit longer to challenge some of the more capable players. It’s the same thing I like to see on the men’s tour.

          These are the best of the best women in golf, I would just like to see them really challenged.

        • Jack Gallagher

          Dec 20, 2017 at 12:34 pm

          If that were true, Andrew Pavlov, then there is every justification to play courses that are only 5,500 yards in length for the men, and 4,500 yards in length for the women. It would have an audience of one – Andrew Pavlov.

  46. MacAllan

    Dec 19, 2017 at 3:36 pm

    I’m a Swe golfer with hcp 5 and I have said this to my golf friends a long time ago, we have more to learn from LPGA than the PGA Tour.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Valspar Championship betting preview: Elite ballstrikers to thrive at Copperhead

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The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2024 Valspar Championship.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermudagrass greens overseeded with POA. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 16, 17 and 18 — also known as the “Snake Pit” — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.

The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. The field this week is solid and is a major improvement over last year’s field that felt the impact of players skipping due to a handful of “signature events” in a short span of time. 

Past Winners at Valspar Championship

  • 2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
  • 2022: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
  • 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
  • 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
  • 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
  • 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Copperhead

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can’t be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)

  1. Tony Finau (+.90)
  2. Nick Taylor (+.81)
  3. Justin Thomas (+.77)
  4. Greyson Sigg (+.69)
  5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+.67)

2. Good Drive %

The long hitters can be a bit limited here due to the tree-lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important, but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.

Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+91.3%) 
  2. Zach Johnson (+91.1%)
  3. Sam Ryder (+90.5%)
  4. Ryan Moore (+90.4%)
  5. Aaron Rai (+89.7%)

3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1.32)
  2. Keith Mitchell (+1.29)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.24)
  4. Cameron Young (+1.17) 
  5. Doug Ghim (+.95)

4. Bogey Avoidance

With the conditions likely to be difficult, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, oftentimes the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.

Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.

Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+9.0)
  2. Xander Schauffele (+9.3)
  3. Austin Cook (+9.7) 
  4. Chesson Hadley (+10.0)
  5. Greyson Sigg (+10.2)

5. Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions

Conditions will be tough this week at Copperhead. I am looking for golfers who can rise to the occasion if the course plays as difficult as it has in the past.

Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1,71) 
  2. Min Woo Lee (+1.39)
  3. Cameron Young (+1.27)
  4. Jordan Spieth (+1.08)
  5. Justin Suh (+.94)

6. Course History

That statistic will tell us which players have played well at Copperhead in the past.

Course History Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+3.75) 
  2. Sam Burns (+2.49)
  3. Davis Riley (+2.33)
  4. Matt NeSmith (+2.22)
  5. Jordan Spieth (+2.04)

The Valspar Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Good Drive % (15%), SG: BS (20%), Bogeys Avoided (13%), Course History (13%) Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions (12%).

  1. Xander Schauffele
  2. Doug Ghim
  3. Victor Perez
  4. Greyson Sigg
  5. Ryan Moore
  6. Tony Finau
  7. Justin Thomas
  8. Sam Ryder
  9. Sam Burns
  10. Lucas Glover

2024 Valspar Championship Picks

Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)

Justin Thomas will be disappointed with his finish at last week’s PLAYERS Championship, as the past champion missed the cut despite being in some decent form heading into the event. Despite the missed cut, JT hit the ball really well. In his two rounds, the two-time major champion led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach per round.

Thomas has been up and down this season. He’s missed the cut in two “signature events” but also has finishes of T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T6 at the Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am and T3 at the American Express. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in the field.

Thomas loves Copperhead. In his last three tries at the course, he’s finished T13, T3 and T10. Thomas would have loved to get a win at a big event early in the season, but avoidable mistakes and a balky putter have cost him dearly. I believe a trip to a course he loves in a field he should be able to capitalize on is the right recipe for JT to right the ship.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (FanDuel)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is playing spectacular golf in the 2024 season. He finished 2nd at the American Express, T20 at Pebble Beach and T24 at the Genesis Invitational before finishing T13 at last week’s PLAYERS Championship.

In his past 24 rounds, the South African ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 26th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. Bezuidenhout managed to work his way around TPC Sawgrass last week with minimal damage. He only made five bogeys in the entire week, which is a great sign heading into a difficult Copperhead this week.

Bezuidenhout is winless in his PGA Tour career, but certainly has the talent to win on Tour. His recent iron play tells me that this week could be a breakthrough for the 35-year-old who has eyes on the President’s Cup.

Doug Ghim +8000 (FanDuel)

Doug Ghim has finished in the top-16 of his past five starts. Most recently, Ghim finished T16 at The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field.

In his past 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 5th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. In terms of his fit for Copperhead, the 27-year-old ranks 12th in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions, making him a great fit for the course.

Ghim has yet to win on Tour, but at one point he was the top ranked Amateur golfer in the world and played in the 2017 Arnold Palmer Cup and 2017 Walker Cup. He then won the Ben Hogan award for the best male college golfer in 2018. He certainly has the talent, and there are signals aplenty that his talent in ready to take him to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour.

Sepp Straka +8000 (BetRivers)

Sepp Straka is a player who’s shown he has the type of game that can translate to a difficult Florida golf course. The former Presidents Cup participant won the 2022 Honda Classic in tough conditions and should thrive with a similar test at Copperhead.

It’s been a slow 2024 for Straka, but his performance last week at the PLAYERS Championship surely provides some optimism. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach as well as 1.88 strokes off the tee. The tee-to-green game Straka showed on a course with plenty of danger demonstrates that he can stay in control of his golf ball this week.

It’s possible that the strong performance last week was an outlier, but I’m willing to bet on a proven winner in a weaker field at a great number.

Victor Perez +12000 (FanDuel)

Victor Perez is no stranger to success in professional golf. The Frenchman has three DP World Tour wins including a Rolex Series event. He won the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, as well as the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which are some big events.

Perez earned his PGA Tour card this season and enters the week playing some fantastic golf. He finished in a tie for 16th in Florida at the Cognizant Classic and then tied for third in his most recent start at the Puerto Rico Open.

In his past 24 rounds in the field, Perez ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 1oth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Good Drive % and 15th in Bogey Avoidance.

Perez comes in as a perfect fit for Copperhead and offers serious value at triple-digit odds.

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Opinion & Analysis

Myrtle Beach, Explored: February in South Carolina

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As I gain in experience and age, and familiarity breeds neither contempt nor disdain, I understand why people return to a place. A destination like Myrtle Beach offers a sizable supply and diversity of restaurants, entertainment venues, and shops that are predicated on the tenets of the service industry. Greet your customers with a smile and a kind word, and they will find comfort and assurance. Provide them with a memorable experience and they will suggest your place of business to others.

My first tour of Myrtle Beach took place in the mid-1980s, and consisted of one course: Gator Hole. I don’t remember much from that day, and since Gator Hole closed a decade later, I cannot revisit it to recollect what I’d lost. Since then, I’ve come to the Grand Strand a few times, and been fortunate to never place a course more than once. I’ve seen the Strantz courses to the south and dipped my toe in the North Carolina courses of Calabash. I’ve been to many in the middle, including Dunes, Pine Lakes, Grande Dunes among them.

2024 brought a quartet of new courses, including two at the Barefoot Resort. I’d heard about the North Myrtle Beach four-pack of courses that highlight the Barefoot property, including layouts from Pete Dye, Tom Fazio, Davis Love III, and Greg Norman. I had the opportunity to play and shoot the Dye and Fazio tracks, which means that I’ll have to return to see the other two. Sandwiched between them were the TPC-Myrtle Beach course, also from Tom Fazio, and the Pawley’s Plantation trace, by the hand of Jack Nicklaus. I anticipated a bit of the heroic, and bit of the strategic, and plenty of eye candy. None of those architects would ever be considered a minimalist, so there would be plenty of in-play and out-of-play bunkers and mounds to tantalize the senses.

My nephew arrived a few days early, to screen a few more courses. As a result, you the reader will have an extra quarter of mini-reviews, bringing the total of courses in this piece to eight. It was inconceivable that CJR would play four courses that I had never played nor photographed, but that was the case. His words appear at the end of this piece. We hope that you enjoy the tour.

Main Feature: Two Barefoots, a TPC, and Pawley’s Plantation

Barefoot Dye

What Paul “Pete” Dye brought back from his trips to the United Kingdom, hearkened back to what C.B. MacDonal did, some 65 years prior. There is a way of finding bunkers and fairways, and even green sites, that does not require major industrial work. The Dye course at Barefoot Resorts takes you on a journey over the rumpled terrain of distant places. If there’s one element missing, it’s the creased and turbulent fairways, so often found in England and Ireland. The one tenet of playing a Dye course, is to always aim away from temptation, from where your eyes draw you. Find the safe side of the target, and you’ll probably find your ball. It then stands that you will have a shot for your next attempt. Cut the corner, and you might have need to reload. The Barefoot course begins gently, in terms of distance, but challenges with visual deception. After two brief 4s and a 3, the real work begins. The course is exposed enough, to allow the coastal winds to dance along the fairways. Be ready to keep the ball low and take an extra club or two.

TPC-Myrtle Beach

If memory serves, TPCMB is my first trek around a TPC-branded course. It had all the trappings of a tour course, from the welcome, through the clubhouse, to the practice facilities and, of course, the course. TPC-Myrtle Beach is a Tom Fazio design, and if you never visit Augusta National, you’ll now have an idea of what it is like. You play Augusta’s 16th hole twice at TPCMB, and you enjoy it both times. Fazio really likes the pond-left, green-angle-around par three hole, and his two iterations of it are memorable.

You’ll also see those Augusta bunkers, the ones with the manicured edges that drop into a modestly-circular form. What distinguishes these sand pits is the manner in which they rise from the surrounding ground. They are unique in that they don’t resemble the geometric bunkering of a Seth Raynor, nor the organic pits found in origin courses. They are built, make no mistake, and recovery from them is manageable for all levels of bunker wizardry.

Barefoot Fazio

If you have the opportunity to play the two Tom Fazio courses back to back, you’ll notice a marked difference in styling. Let me digress for a moment, then circle back with an explanation. It was written that the NLE World Woods course designed by Fazio, Pine Barrens, was an homage to Pine Valley, the legendary, New Jersey club where Fazio is both a member and the architect on retainer. The Pine Barrens course was plowed under in 2022, so the homage no longer exists. At least, I didn’t think that it existed, until I played his Barefoot Resort course in North Myrtle Beach.

Pine Valley might be described as an aesthetic of scrub and sand. There are mighty, forced carries to travers, along with sempiternal, sandy lairs to avoid. Barefoot Fazio is quite similar. If you’re not faced with a forced carry, you’ll certainly contend with a fairway border or greenside necklace of sand. When you reach the 13th tee, you’ll face a drive into a fairway, and you might see a distant green, with a notable absence: flagstick. The 13th is the icing on the homage cake, a callout of the 8th hole at Pine Valley. Numero Ocho at the OG has two greens, side by side, and they change the manner in which the hole plays (so they say.) At Barefoot Fazio, the right-side green is a traditional approach, with an unimpeded run of fairway to putting surface. The left-side green (the one that I was fortunate to play) demands a pitch shot over a wasteland. It’s a fitting tribute for the rest of us to play.

Be certain to parrot the starter, Leon’s, advice, and play up a deck of tees. Barefoot Fazio offers five par-three holes, so the fours and fives play that much longer. Remember, too, that you are on vacation. Why not treat yourself to some birdie looks?

Pawley’s Plantation

The Jack Nicklaus course at Pawley’s Plantation emerged from a period of hibernation in 2024. The greens were torn up and their original contours were restored. Work was overseen by Troy Vincent, a member of the Nicklaus Architecture team. In addition, the putting corridors were reseeded with a hardier, dwarf bermuda that has experienced great success, all along the Grand Strand that is Myrtle Beach.

My visit allowed me to see the inward half first, and I understand why the resort wishes to conclude your day on those holes. The front nine of Pawley’s Plantation works its way through familiar, low country trees and wetlands. The back nine begins in similar fashion, then makes its way east, toward the marsh that separates mainland from Pawley’s Island. Recalling the powerful sun of that Wednesday morning, any round beginning on the second nine would face collateral damage from the warming star. Much better to hit holes 11 to close when the sun is higher in the sky.

The marshland holes (12 through 17) are spectacular in their raw, unprotected nature. The winds off the Atlantic are unrelenting and unforgiving, and the twin, par-three holes will remain in your memory banks for time’s march. In typical Golden Bear fashion, a majority of his putting targets are smallish in nature, reflecting his appreciation for accurate approach shots. Be sure to find the forgiving side of each green, and err to that portion. You’ll be grateful.

Bonus Coverage: Myrtlewood, Beechwood, Arrowhead, and King’s North

Arrowhead (Raymond Floyd and Tom Jackson)

A course built in the middle of a community, water threatens on most every hole. The Cypress 9 provides a few holes forcing a carried drive then challenge you with water surrounding the green. On Waterway, a drivable 2nd hole will tempt most, so make sure the group ahead has cleared the green.

Myrtlewood (Edmund Alt and Arthur Hills) and Beechwood (Gene Hamm)

A middle of the winter New Englander’s paradise. Wide open fairways, zero blind shots and light rough allow for shaking off the rust and plenty of forgiveness. A plethora of dog legs cause one to be cautious with every tee shot. Won’t break the bank nor the scorecard.

King’s North @ Myrtle Beach National (Arnold Palmer)

A signature Arnold Palmer course, waste areas, island greens and daring tee shots. Highlighted by the 4th hole Par 5 Gambler hole, if you can hit the smaller fairway on the left you are rewarded with a short approach to get to the green in 2. The back 9 is highlighted by an island green par 3 and a finisher with over 40 bunkers spread throughout. A challenge for any golfer.
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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Players Championship betting preview: Pete Dye specialists ready to pass tough TPC Sawgrass test

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The PGA Tour heads to TPC Sawgrass to play in one of the most prestigious and important events of the season: THE PLAYERS Championship. Often referred to as the fifth major, the importance of a PLAYERS victory to the legacy of a golfer can’t be overlooked.

TPC Sawgrass is a par-72 measuring 7,245 yards and featuring Bermudagrass greens. Golfers must be patient in attacking this Pete Dye course.

With trouble lurking at every turn, the strokes can add up quickly. With a par-5 16th that is a true risk-reward hole and the famous par-3 17th island green, the only safe bet at TPC Sawgrass is a bet on an exciting finish.

THE PLAYERS Championship field is often referred to as the strongest field of the year — and with good reason. There are 144 in the field, including 43 of the world’s top 50 players in the OWGR. Tiger Woods will not be playing in the event.

THE PLAYERS is an exceptionally volatile event that has never seen a back-to-back winner.

Past Winners at TPC Sawgrass

  • 2023: Scottie Scheffler (-17)
  • 2022: Cameron Smith (-13)
  • 2021: Justin Thomas (-14)
  • 2019: Rory McIlroy (-16)
  • 2018: Webb Simpson (-18)
  • 2017: Si-Woo Kim (-10)
  • 2016: Jason Day (-15)
  • 2015: Rickie Fowler (-12)In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

5 Key Stats for TPC Sawgrass

Let’s take a look at five metrics key for TPC Sawgrass to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach has historically been far and away the most important and predictive stat at THE PLAYERS Championship. With water everywhere, golfers can’t afford to be wild with their iron shots. Not only is it essential to avoid the water, but it will also be as important to go after pins and make birdies because scores can get relatively low.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.37) 
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.20)
  3. Tony Finau (+0.99)
  4. Jake Knapp (+0.83)
  5. Shane Lowry (+0.80)

2. Total Driving

This statistic is perfect for TPC Sawgrass. Historically, driving distance hasn’t been a major factor, but since the date switch to March, it’s a bit more significant. During this time of year, the ball won’t carry quite as far, and the runout is also shorter.

Driving accuracy is also crucial due to all of the trouble golfers can get into off of the tee. Therefore, players who are gaining on the field with Total Driving will put themselves in an ideal spot this week.

Total Driving Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Rory McIlroy (22)
  2. Akshay Bhatia (25)
  3. Keith Mitchell (25) 
  4. Adam Hadwin (34)
  5. Sam Burns (+39)

3. Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye Designs

TPC Sawgrass may be Pete Dye’s most famous design, and for good reason. The course features Dye’s typical shaved runoff areas and tricky green complexes.  Pete Dye specialists love TPC Sawgrass and should have a major advantage this week.

SG: Total (Pete Dye) per round over past 36 rounds:

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+2.02)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.90)
  3. Min Woo Lee (+1.77) 
  4. Sungjae Im (+1.72)
  5. Brian Harman (+1.62) 

4. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Prototypical ball-strikers have dominated TPC Sawgrass. With past winners like Sergio Garcia, Henrik Stenson, Webb Simpson, Rory McIlroy and Justin Thomas, it’s evident that golfers must be striking it pure to contend at THE PLAYERS.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.02)
  2. Tony Finau (+1.51)
  3. Tom Hoge (+1.48)
  4. Keith Mitchell (+1.38)
  5. Will Zalatoris (+1.18)

5. Par 5 Average

Par-5 average is extremely important at TPC Sawgrass. With all four of the Par-5s under 575 yards, and three of them under 540 yards, a good amount of the scoring needs to come from these holes collectively.

Par 5 Average Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Scottie Schefler (+4.31)
  2. Erik Van Rooyen (+4.35)
  3. Doug Ghim (+4.34)
  4. Wyndham Clark (+4.34)
  5. Matt Fitzpatrick (+4.31)

6. Strokes Gained: Florida

We’ve used this statistic over the past few weeks, and I’d like to incorporate some players who do well in Florida into this week’s model as well. 

Strokes Gained: Florida over past 30 rounds:

  1. Scottie Schefler (+2.43)
  2. Erik Van Rooyen (+1.78)
  3. Doug Ghim (+1.78)
  4. Wyndham Clark (+1.73)
  5. Matt Fitzpatrick (+1.69)

7. Strokes Gained: Total on Courses with High Water Danger

With water everywhere at TPC Sawgrass, the blow-up potential is high. It can’t hurt to factor in some players who’ve avoided the “eject” button most often in the past. 

Strokes Gained: Total on Courses with High Water Danger over past 30 rounds:

  1. Scottie Schefler (+2.08)
  2. Rory McIlroy (+1.82)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.62)
  4. Patrick Cantlay (+1.51)
  5. Will Zalatoris (+1.49)

THE PLAYERS Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (25%), Total Driving (20%), SG: Total Pete Dye (14%), SG: Ball-striking (15%) SG: Par 5 (8%), SG: Florida (10%) and SG: High Water (8%).

  1. Scottie Scheffler 
  2. Shane Lowry 
  3. Tony Finau 
  4. Corey Conners
  5. Keith Mitchell
  6. Justin Thomas
  7. Will Zalatoris
  8. Xander Schauffele
  9. Cameron Young
  10. Doug Ghim
  11. Sam Burns 
  12. Chris Kirk
  13. Collin Morikawa
  14. Si Woo Kim
  15. Wyndham Clark

2024 THE PLAYERS Championship Picks

(All odds at the time of writing)

Patrick Cantlay +2500 (DraftKings):

Patrick Cantlay is winless since the 2022 BMW Championship but is undoubtedly one of the most talented players on the PGA Tour. Since the win at Wilmington Country Club, the 31-year-old has twelve top-10 finishes on Tour and is starting to round into form for the 2024 season.

Cantlay has done well in the most recent “signature” events this season, finishing 4th at Riviera for the Genesis Invitational and 12th at Bay Hill for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. The former Tour Championship winner resides in Jupiter, Florida and has played some good golf in the state, including finishing in a tie for 4th at the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational. His history at TPC Sawgrass has been up and down, but his best career start at The PLAYERS came last year when he finished in a tie for 19th.

Cantlay absolutely loves Pete Dye designed courses and ranks 1st in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on Dye tracks in his past 36 rounds. In recent years, he’s been excellent at both the RBC Heritage and the Travelers Championship. TPC Sawgrass is a place where players will have to be dialed in with their irons and distance off the tee won’t be quite as important. In his past 24, rounds, Cantlay ranks in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach.

Despite being winless in recent years, I still believe Cantlay is capable of winning big tournaments. As one of the only United States players to bring their best game to Marco Simone for the Ryder Cup, I have conviction that the former top amateur in the world can deliver when stakes are high.

Will Zalatoris +3000 (FanDuel):

In order to win at TPC Sawgrass, players will need to be in total control of their golf ball. At the moment, Will Zalatoris is hitting it as well as almost anyone and finally has the putter cooperating with his new switch to the broomstick style.

Zalatoris is coming off back-to-back starts where he absolutely striped the ball. He finished 2nd at the Genesis Invitational and 4th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational where his statistics were eye opening. For the week at Bay Hill, Zal gained 5.0 strokes on approach and 5.44 strokes off the tee.

Throughout the early part of his career, Zalatoris has established himself by playing his best golf in the strongest fields with the most difficult conditions. A tough test will allow him to separate himself this week and breakthrough for a PLAYERS Championship victory.

Shane Lowry +4000 (DraftKings):

History has shown us that players need to be in good form to win the PLAYERS Championship and it’s hard to find anyone not named Scottie Scheffler who’s in better form that Shane Lowry at the moment. He finished T4 at the Cognizant Classic followed by a solo third place finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

The fact that the Irishman contended at Bay Hill is a great sign considering he’s really struggled there throughout his career. He will now head to a different style of course in Florida where he’s had a good deal of success. He finished 8th at TPC Sawgrass in 2021 and 13th in 2022. 

Lowry ranks 6th in the field in approach in his past 24 rounds, 7th in Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye designed courses in his last 30 rounds, 8th in par 5 scoring this season, and 4th in Strokes Gained: Total in Florida over his past 36 rounds.

Lowry is a player who’s capable of winning big events. He’s a major champion and won another premier event at Wentworth as well as a WGC at Firestone. He’s also a form player, when he wins it’s typically when he’s contended in recent starts. He’s been terrific thus far in Florida and he should get into contention once again this week.

Brian Harman +8000 (DraftKings):

(Note: Since writing this Harman’s odds have plummeted to 50-1. I would not advise betting the 50).

Brian Harman showed us last season that if the course isn’t extremely long, he has the accuracy both off the tee and with his irons to compete with anyone in the world. Last week at Bay Hill and was third in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, gaining 5.54 strokes on the field in the category.

In addition to the strong iron play, Harman also gained strokes off the tee in three of four rounds. He’s also had success at Pete Dye tracks recently. He finished 2nd at last year’s Travelers Championship and 7th at the RBC Heritage.

It would be a magnificent feat for Harman to win both the Open Championship and PLAYERS in a short time frame, but the reality is the PGA Tour isn’t quite as strong as it once was. Harman is a player who shows up for the biggest events and his odds seem way too long for his recent track record.

Tony Finau +6500 (FanDuel):

A few weeks ago, at the Genesis Invitational, I bet Hideki Matsuyama because I believed it to be a “bet the number” play at 80-1. I feel similarly about Finau this week. While he’s not having the season many people expected of him, he is playing better than these odds would indicate.

This season, Tony has a tied for 6th place finish at Torrey Pines, a tied for 19th at Riviera and tied for 13th at the Mexico Open. He’s also hitting the ball extremely well. In the field in his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Approach, 3rd in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Par 5 average and 15th in Total Driving.

Finau’s problem has been with the putter, which has been undeniably horrific. However, this week he will see a putting surface similar to the POA at TPC Scottsdale and PGA West, which he’s had a great deal of success on. It’s worth taking a stab at this price to see if he can have a mediocre week with the flat stick.

Sungjae Im +9000 (FanDuel):

It’s been a lackluster eighteen months for Sungjae, who once appeared to be a certain star. While his ceiling is absolutely still there, it’s been a while since we’ve seen Im play the type of golf expected of a player with his talent.

Despite the obvious concerns, the South Korean showed glimpses of a return to form last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He tied for 18th place and gained strokes off the tee, on approach, around the green and with the putter. When at his best, Im is a perfect course fit for TPC Sawgrass. He has remarkable precision off the tee, can get dialed in with his irons on shorter courses and can get up and down with the best players on Tour.

This number has gotten to the point where I feel comfortable taking a shot on it.

Billy Horschel +20000 (FanDuel):

Billy Horschel is a great fit on paper for TPC Sawgrass. He can get dialed in with his irons and his lack of distance off the tee won’t be a major detriment at the course. “Bermuda Billy” does his best work putting on Bermudagrass greens and he appears to be rounding into form just in time to compete at The PLAYERS.

In his most recent start, Billy finished in a tie for 9th at the Cognizant Classic and hit the ball extremely well. The former Florida Gator gained 3.32 strokes on approach and 2.04 strokes off the tee. If Horschel brings that type of ball striking to TPC Sawgrass, he has the type of putter who can win a golf tournament.

Horschel has been great on Pete Dye designed courses, with four of his seven career PGA Tour wins coming on Dye tracks.

In a season that has seen multiple long shots win big events, the 37-year-old is worth a stab considering his knack for playing in Florida and winning big events.

 

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