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The Lost Art of Chipping

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From a teacher’s perspective, golf on TV is a double-edged sword. It seems to have both positive and negative influences on the people I teach.

One of the most destructive influences for the average golfer is watching the touring professionals around the greens. This is the part of the game that really separates good players from great players. The athletes we are watching are in the upper 0.01 percent of golfers worldwide. Their touch, feel and imagination around the greens is really quite extraordinary. A prime example of this might be their scoring statistics; the best golfers in the world miss an average of  5-6 greens a round, yet they consistently shoot under par. How do they shoot 68 or 69 while missing 5 or 6 greens every round? Well, for one thing, they’re getting up and down. It also doesn’t hurt your score when you’re hitting it to kick-in distance 3-4 times a round. But I teach golfers who are not the best in the world, so my whole day is spent trying to teach logic and percentages.

The modern game has changed so much in so many ways. With the onset of the 60-degree wedge and the modern golf ball, the tools of today are superior. Regardless of how adept a player is with the modern equipment, however, I suggest that the average golfer will still make a lower score a higher percentage of the time if they opt for more straight-faced, bump-and-run style shots. Maybe the best players in the world can pull off high-spinning, low-flighted, check-on-the-second-bounce kind of deals, but for the average golfer this is still a recipe for disaster. And don’t forget that the pros are hitting band new golf balls… from perfectly manicured fairways… with a spotless wedge… while employing nearly flawless technique.

I might suggest this rule of thumb for most who are reading this — get the golf ball on the ground as quickly as possible around the greens. When you have ample green to work with and there is no obstacle between your golf ball and the hole, a chip shot will be safer than a lofted one. I cannot tell you how many students I bring to the green and when I ask what club they would use for a 30-yard shot across an open green, they say, “Well, lob or sand.” From there, we get into a discussion on the law of averages. Just last week I told one very well-heeled student (and friend) of mine, “I’m glad you don’t invest the way you chip.”

Try this simple practice routine and see if your chipping game improves. When you look at a long, flat shot to a big green, instead of looking at the hole, pick a spot 3-4 paces on the green and try a 7, 8 or 9-iron to chip the ball no further than the spot you’ve selected. In practice, put a ball or a head cover at the 3-4 pace spot and chip to IT, not the hole.

Personal Beef: Another reason many golfers struggle with long chips is they don’t get to practice them enough. Most golf courses have a large putting green and a much smaller chipping green or “short-game area.” In fact, the large green often has a “no-chipping” sign on it. So you get to practice only short chips with rarely a chance to run out long ones.

Now let’s say you’re chipping stroke comes up short with a 9-iron. Instead of hitting the ball harder or with a bigger stoke, grab an 8 iron. The 8-iron comes up short? Grab a 7-iron, and so on. Make the smallest, easiest stroke you can to get the golf ball on the green and running EARLY. When many of you try this, you’ll hit your shots too far. The reason is you’re accustomed to taking big swings with lofted clubs.

In addition to the simplicity of the stroke, the other reason I prefer this method is the visual perspective one gets when looking down the line. It’s not unlike bowling over the arrows. The flagstick bowling pins are 60 feet away, but the arrows are much closer. Looking at and getting a feel for a hole some 60 feet away is difficult compared to looking at a spot few feet in front of you and only a few paces on the green.

Personal Story: My eyes just ain’t what they were, and this visual trick has helped my chipping tremendously. Once I was quite adept around the greens; it was the best part of my game, but in my later years it left me. I first blamed it on not playing as often and my failing eyesight. Then it hit me; I used to play a lot of bump-and-run chips. And without even realizing it, I fell victim to TV golf and the 60-degree wedge era. I was playing many more shots in the air, trying to hit, check and trickle them instead of playing the higher-percentage shot. I’m back to my old method now and the odds are more often in my favor.

I can’t be more emphatic about the benefits of chipping with my students. It WORKS. To boot, at 60 feet away, if I drop kick a 60-degree wedge or lay sod over it I still have 50 feet to the hole. I can skinny an 8-iron up much closer, even on a miss. Needless to say, this is a straight-forward chipping situation. Playing over hills or hazards is a whole different ball game. But we have the trusty lob wedge handy for those times, don’t we? We just don’t need it all the time. Play the odds for a change; your score will reflect your more conservative approach.

As the country song says: “Never hit 17 when you play against the dealer; the odds don’t ride with you.”

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Dennis Clark is a PGA Master Professional. Clark has taught the game of golf for more than 30 years to golfers all across the country, and is recognized as one of the leading teachers in the country by all the major golf publications. He is also is a seven-time PGA award winner who has earned the following distinctions: -- Teacher of the Year, Philadelphia Section PGA -- Teacher of the Year, Golfers Journal -- Top Teacher in Pennsylvania, Golf Magazine -- Top Teacher in Mid Atlantic Region, Golf Digest -- Earned PGA Advanced Specialty certification in Teaching/Coaching Golf -- Achieved Master Professional Status (held by less than 2 percent of PGA members) -- PGA Merchandiser of the Year, Tri State Section PGA -- Golf Professional of the Year, Tri State Section PGA -- Presidents Plaque Award for Promotion and Growth of the Game of Golf -- Junior Golf Leader, Tri State section PGA -- Served on Tri State PGA Board of Directors. Clark is also former Director of Golf and Instruction at Nemacolin Woodlands Resort. Dennis now teaches at Bobby Clampett's Impact Zone Golf Indoor Performance Center in Naples, FL. .

29 Comments

29 Comments

  1. Bradley R Brown

    Jul 16, 2020 at 11:44 am

    Great info, thank you!! When you open the face, do you adjust your aim, or will you hit to the left? I’m just asking for clarification as this would be a new technique for me. Thank you

  2. ~j~

    Feb 5, 2018 at 11:41 am

    Would argue against. I solely use a 60* from 100 yds and in. I know the feel of it from a slight bump and run to a 72-yd short-side shot. While having plenty of green to work with is great, it shouldnt be often one misses the green on the complete opposite side of the flag (with exception of missing the green short or long). Most of my buddies can only do the bump ‘n run 7i’s and such, couldn’t hit a 56-60* to save their asses, or pars, literally. Without a rounded shortgame, pats are going to be hard to save.

  3. Bob Jones

    Feb 5, 2018 at 11:40 am

    What I learned one time from watching a tournament on TV is that the pros are not trying to get the ball close. They’re trying to sink it. And they do that by rolling the ball to the hole. I built my chipping game around that idea and I have a very good chipping game.

  4. Dennis Clark

    Feb 5, 2018 at 7:56 am

    Three rules around the green:
    Putt whenever you can
    Chip when you cant putt
    Pitch it only when you must

    • Raymond CHASTEL

      Feb 6, 2018 at 3:47 am

      You should learn the “RULE OF 12 ” to select the proper club to chip with around the greens .Ancien “greats ” such as JOHNNY REVOLTA and PAUL RUNYAN taught you to keep the ball as low as possible when going for the green .More recently SEVERIANO BALLESTEROS ridiculized all his opponents whan chipping around the greens ,especially at one memorable BRITISH MASTERS.The “BUMP AND RUN shot “is also quite useful.

  5. Acemandrake

    Feb 4, 2018 at 10:47 am

    RE: Bump-and-Run Shot

    Is the bump-and-run more like a putting stroke or more of a strike down on it type of shot?

    • Dennis Clark

      Feb 5, 2018 at 7:53 am

      I thik there is a little more wrist hinge in chipping, we set the wrists going back and hold the angle a bit coming through providing some down attack angle. Thx

  6. orv

    Feb 3, 2018 at 1:56 pm

    NO NO NO ….!!!!
    All you gotta do is buy the Square Strike Wedge being advertised on WRX.
    https://www.squarestrikewedge.com

  7. acew/7iron

    Feb 3, 2018 at 8:51 am

    There is never enough written about face angle when chipping and its importance in pulling off a successful shot. If you take a 8 iron but have too much shaft lean front or back …Fail

    If you have the toe too far up or down…Fail

    If you have face too open or too closed…Fail

    There is a Art to chipping and its a very difficult one to master…matter of fact…Its very difficult to just be avg around the greens.

  8. freowho

    Feb 3, 2018 at 1:49 am

    Good article. How bad was Patrick Reeds club choice on the last hole of the PGA. $50 lesson off Dennis might have earnt him another half a mill!

  9. Nick Nack

    Feb 2, 2018 at 9:30 pm

    When you get closer to the green there are so many possibilities. Most people confuse a short pitch (fly more than roll) with a chip (roll more than fly) and call them both chips shots. I let the lie and any obstacle between help determine my choice and then I visualize how the shot should look. I usually use an 8 iron for chipping and a wedge for short pitches. Oh yeah, I practice a lot!

  10. bcsquare

    Feb 2, 2018 at 3:56 pm

    Great article. This is the same conversation I had my local pro during a lesson. We went through the same exercise on a 19th hole and after looking at my bag, said dump the lob wedge and fill it with a utility.

    • Joe

      Feb 2, 2018 at 8:57 pm

      Best advice I’ve gotten all year…..thank you!!

  11. ChipN'Run

    Feb 2, 2018 at 3:33 pm

    Dennis,

    Someone needs to tell younger competition golfers about this. I volunteered as a marshal for the 2014 Curtis Cup (USA vs. British-Irish women amateurs), and it seemed the American women were addicted to the lob wedge.

    In the rounds I observed, the Americans several times hit a lob shot into an uphill slant of the green, only to have the ball spin 30 feet back. The B-I visitors did a much better job on selecting chip-and-run, using everything from a PW to 5i. And they used putters well from just off the green.
    ——————————
    As for me, I use an even mix of wedge pitches and 8i chip-and-run. If I have a 60 yd. shot into a cross wind, I often will use a 7i punch and run for control. And, the bounce-ons are a good way to defeat false fronts on greens.

  12. Greg V

    Feb 2, 2018 at 3:08 pm

    About 6 years ago I learned to chip with a putting stroke, putting grip, and toe of the club down. I now save strokes from off the green. I wish that I had learned the technique 50 years ago – yes, I am showing my age.

    • Dennis Clark

      Feb 7, 2018 at 6:21 pm

      Agree greg, if you’ll recall it’s the technique Phil Rogers taught jack Nicklaus in 1980 when he decided to remake his short game. The only limitation of it is long chips, the toe killls it. But it’s the most ANTI-SHANK chip in the game.

  13. North Butte

    Feb 2, 2018 at 1:47 pm

    Five little words…

    Putter
    From
    Off
    The
    Green

  14. Jim

    Feb 2, 2018 at 12:17 pm

    Completely agree. Chipping saves you so many more shots around the green versus trying to hit the perfect flop shot. And having the creativity to use anything from a wedge to a 5 iron is great fun as well. It’s amazing how many people grab their sand or lob wedge when around the green and then chunk it. Grab the 8 iron more often and learn to chip, you’ll save a bunch of shots during the round.

  15. James T

    Feb 2, 2018 at 11:42 am

    As a kid I would even chip with a 5 or 6 iron at times. It was a shot I practiced a lot. Like Dennis I was known for my up and down dead-eye chipping back then. Now I have a wedge in my hands too often.

    Thank you Dennis for reminding me about the odds. Time for me to be a kid again.

  16. juststeve

    Feb 2, 2018 at 11:28 am

    Now a question for Dennis. What do you think happened. In the past I played a lot of recreational golf with Ray Floyd in particular and he played short shots as you suggest. He ended us closer to the hole more often than the guys I see on TV yet his style, and Paul Runyan’s style are now out of fashion. My question is why?

    • Ryan

      Feb 2, 2018 at 1:14 pm

      The greens on the Tour appear to be much faster. Add the fact that guys on TV have fresh wedges and unlimited supply of ProV1’s, the pro’s can stop it on a dime.

    • Dennis

      Feb 7, 2018 at 7:10 am

      Steve, I’m sorry for the delay here…the biggest reason is golf courses have changed. I think newer courses have much more protected hole locations with flags placed precariously close to the edges of greens. That may be one of the reasons.

  17. juststeve

    Feb 2, 2018 at 11:13 am

    Another sound article from Dennis

  18. C

    Feb 2, 2018 at 10:55 am

    Raymond Floyd would approve of this method.

  19. alexdub

    Feb 2, 2018 at 10:46 am

    Great article Dennis. The 8 iron runner from 20 or 30 yards is one of my favorite shots.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open betting preview

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As the Florida swing comes to an end, the PGA Tour makes its way to Houston to play the Texas Children’s Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course.

This will be the fourth year that Memorial Park Golf Course will serve as the tournament host. The event did not take place in 2023, but the course hosted the event in 2020, 2021 and 2022.

Memorial Park is a par-70 layout measuring 7,432 yards and features Bermudagrass greens. Historically, the main defense for the course has been thick rough along the fairways and tightly mown runoff areas around the greens. Memorial Park has a unique setup that features three Par 5’s and five Par 3’s.

The field will consist of 132 players, with the top 65 and ties making the cut. There are some big names making the trip to Houston, including Scottie Scheffler, Wyndham Clark, Tony Finau, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala.

Past Winners at Memorial Park

  • 2022: Tony Finau (-16)
  • 2021: Jason Kokrak (-10)
  • 2020: Carlos Ortiz (-13)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Memorial Park

Let’s take a look at several metrics for Memorial Park to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds:

Strokes Gained: Approach

Memorial Park is a pretty tough golf course. Golfers are penalized for missing greens and face some difficult up and downs to save par. Approach will be key.

Total Strokes Gained: Approach per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.30)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.26)
  3. Keith Mitchell (+0.97) 
  4. Tony Finau (+0.92)
  5. Jake Knapp (+0.84)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Memorial Park is a long golf course with rough that can be penal. Therefore, a combination of distance and accuracy is the best metric.

Total Strokes Gained: Off the Tee per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+0.94)
  2. Kevin Dougherty (+0.93)
  3. Cameron Champ (+0.86)
  4. Rafael Campos (+0.84)
  5. Si Woo Kim (+0.70)

Strokes Gained Putting: Bermudagrass + Fast

The Bermudagrass greens played fairly fast the past few years in Houston. Jason Kokrak gained 8.7 strokes putting on his way to victory in 2021 and Tony Finau gained in 7.8 in 2022.

Total Strokes Gained Putting (Bermudagrass) per round past 24 rounds (min. 8 rounds):

  1. Adam Svensson (+1.27)
  2. Harry Hall (+1.01)
  3. Martin Trainer (+0.94)
  4. Taylor Montgomery (+0.88)
  5. S.H. Kim (+0.86)

Strokes Gained: Around the Green

With firm and undulating putting surfaces, holding the green on approach shots may prove to be a challenge. Memorial Park has many tightly mowed runoff areas, so golfers will have challenging up-and-down’s around the greens. Carlos Ortiz gained 5.7 strokes around the green on the way to victory in 2020.

Total Strokes Gained: Around the Green per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Mackenzie Hughes (+0.76)
  2. S.H. Kim (+0.68)
  3. Scottie Scheffler (+0.64)
  4. Jorge Campillo (+0.62)
  5. Jason Day (+0.60)

Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult

Memorial Park is a long and difficult golf course. This statistic will incorporate players who’ve had success on these types of tracks in the past. 

Total Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.45)
  2. Ben Griffin (+1.75)
  3. Will Zalatoris (+1.73)
  4. Ben Taylor (+1.53)
  5. Tony Finau (+1.42)

Course History

Here are the players who have performed the most consistently at Memorial Park. 

Strokes Gained Total at Memorial Park past 12 rounds:

  1. Tyson Alexander (+3.65)
  2. Ben Taylor (+3.40)
  3. Tony Finau (+2.37)
  4. Joel Dahmen (+2.25)
  5. Patton Kizzire (+2.16)

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (24%) SG: OTT (24%); SG: Putting Bermudagrass/Fast (13%); SG: Long and Difficult (13%); SG: ARG (13%) and Course History (13%)

  1. Scottie Scheffler
  2. Wyndham Clark
  3. Tony Finau
  4. Joel Dahmen
  5. Stephan Jaeger 
  6. Aaron Rai
  7. Sahith Theegala
  8. Keith Mitchell 
  9. Jhonnatan Vegas
  10. Jason Day
  11. Kurt Kitayama
  12. Alex Noren
  13. Will Zalatoris
  14. Si Woo Kim
  15. Adam Long

2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open Picks

Will Zalatoris +2000 (Caesars)

Scottie Scheffler will undoubtedly be difficult to beat this week, so I’m starting my card with someone who I believe has the talent to beat him if he doesn’t have his best stuff.

Will Zalatoris missed the cut at the PLAYERS, but still managed to gain strokes on approach while doing so. In an unpredictable event with extreme variance, I don’t believe it would be wise to discount Zalatoris based on that performance. Prior to The PLAYERS, the 27-year-old finished T13, T2 and T4 in his previous three starts.

Zalatoris plays his best golf on long and difficult golf courses. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the category, but the eye test also tells a similar story. He’s contended at major championships and elevated events in the best of fields with tough scoring conditions.  The Texas resident should be a perfect fit at Memorial Park Golf Club.

Alex Noren +4500 (FanDuel)

Alex Noren has been quietly playing some of his best golf of the last half decade this season. The 41-year-old is coming off back-to-back top-20 finishes in Florida including a T9 at The PLAYERS in his most recent start.

In his past 24 rounds, Noren ranks 21st in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 30th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, 25th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses and 21st in Strokes Gained: Putting on fast Bermudagrass greens.

In addition to his strong recent play, the Swede also has played well at Memorial Park. In 2022, Noren finished T4 at the event, gaining 2.2 strokes off the tee and 7.0 strokes on approach for the week. In his two starts at the course, he’s gained an average of .6 strokes per round on the field, indicating he is comfortable on these greens.

Noren has been due for a win for what feels like an eternity, but Memorial Park may be the course that suits him well enough for him to finally get his elusive first PGA Tour victory.

Mackenzie Hughes +8000 (FanDuel)

Mackenzie Hughes found himself deep into contention at last week’s Valspar Championship before faltering late and finishing in a tie for 3rd place. While he would have loved to win the event, it’s hard to see the performance as anything other than an overwhelming positive sign for the Canadian.

Hughes has played great golf at Memorial Park in the past. He finished T7 in 2020, T29 in 2021 and T16 in 2022. The course fit seems to be quite strong for Hughes. He’s added distance off the tee in the past year or and ranks 8th in the field for apex height, which will be a key factor when hitting into Memorial Park’s elevated greens with steep run-off areas.

In his past 24 rounds, Hughes is the best player in the field in Strokes Gained: Around the Greens. The ability to scramble at this course will be extremely important. I believe Hughes can build off of his strong finish last week and contend once again to cement himself as a President’s Cup consideration.

Akshay Bhatia +8000 (FanDuel)

Akshay Bhatia played well last week at the Valspar and seemed to be in total control of his golf ball. He finished in a tie for 17th and shot an impressive -3 on a difficult Sunday. After struggling Thursday, Akshay shot 68-70-68 in his next three rounds.

Thus far, Bhatia has played better at easier courses, but his success at Copperhead may be due to his game maturing. The 22-year-old has enormous potential and the raw talent to be one of the best players in the world when he figures it all out.

Bhatia is a high upside play with superstar qualities and may just take the leap forward to the next stage of his career in the coming months.

Cameron Champ +12000 (FanDuel)

Cameron Champ is a player I often target in the outright betting market due to his “boom-or-bust” nature. It’s hard to think of a player in recent history with three PGA Tour wins who’s been as inconsistent as Champ has over the course of his career.

Despite the erratic play, Cam Champ simply knows how to win. He’s won in 2018, 2019 and 2021, so I feel he’s due for a win at some point this season. The former Texas A&M product should be comfortable in Texas and last week he showed us that his game is in a pretty decent spot.

Over his past 24 rounds, Champ ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 30th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses. Given his ability to spike at any given time, Memorial Park is a good golf course to target Champ on at triple digit odds.

Robert MacIntyre +12000 (FanDuel)

The challenge this week is finding players who can possibly beat Scottie Scheffler while also not dumping an enormous amount of money into an event that has a player at the top that looks extremely dangerous. Enter McIntyre, who’s another boom-or-bust type player who has the ceiling to compete with anyone when his game is clicking on all cylinders.

In his past 24 rounds, MacIntyre ranks 16th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 17th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and 10th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses.

MacIntyre’s PGA Tour season has gotten off to a slow start, but he finished T6 in Mexico, which is a course where players will hit driver on the majority of their tee shots, which is what we will see at Memorial Park. Texas can also get quite windy, which should suit MacIntyre. Last July, the Scot went toe to toe with Rory McIlroy at the Scottish Open before a narrow defeat. It would take a similar heroic effort to compete with Scheffler this year in Houston.

Ryan Moore +15000 (FanDuel)

Ryan Moore’s iron play has been absolutely unconscious over his past few starts. At The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field, he gained 6.1 strokes on approach and last week at Copperhead, he gained 9.0 strokes on approach.

It’s been a rough handful of years on Tour for the 41-year-old, but he is still a five-time winner on the PGA Tour who’s young enough for a career resurgence. Moore has chronic deterioration in a costovertebral joint that connects the rib to the spine, but has been getting more consistent of late, which is hopefully a sign that he is getting healthy.

Veterans have been contending in 2024 and I believe taking a flier on a proven Tour play who’s shown signs of life is a wise move at Memorial Park.

 

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Why the race to get better at golf might be doing more harm than good

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B.F. Skinner was one of the most important psychologists of the 20th century, developing the foundation of the development of reinforcement, and in doing so, creating the concept of behaviorism. In simple terms, this means that we are conditioned by our habits. In practical terms, it explains the divide between the few and far between elite instructors and college coaches.

To understand the application, let’s quickly review one of B.F. Skinner’s most important experiments; superstitions in the formation of behavior by pigeons. In this experiment, food was dispensed to pigeons at random intervals. Soon, according to Skinner, the pigeons began to associate whatever action they were doing at the time of the food being dispensed. According to Skinner, this conditioned that response and soon, they simply haphazardly repeated the action, failing to distinguish between cause and correlation (and in the meantime, looking really funny!).

Now, this is simply the best way to describe the actions of most every women’s college golf coach and too many instructors in America. They see something work, get positive feedback and then become conditioned to give the feedback, more and more, regardless of if it works (this is also why tips from your buddies never work!).

Go to a college event, particularly a women’s one, and you will see coaches running all over the place. Like the pigeons in the experiment, they have been conditioned into a codependent relationship with their players in which they believe their words and actions, can transform a round of golf. It is simply hilarious while being equally perturbing

In junior golf, it’s everywhere. Junior golf academies make a living selling parents that a hysterical coach and over-coaching are essential ingredients in your child’s success.

Let’s be clear, no one of any intellect has any real interest in golf — because it’s not that interesting. The people left, including most coaches and instructors, carve out a small fiefdom, usually on the corner of the range, where they use the illusion of competency to pray on people. In simple terms, they baffle people with the bullshit of pseudo-science that they can make you better, after just one more lesson.

The reality is that life is an impromptu game. The world of golf, business, and school have a message that the goal is being right. This, of course, is bad advice, being right in your own mind is easy, trying to push your ideas on others is hard. As a result, it is not surprising that the divorce rate among golf professionals and their instructors is 100 percent. The transfer rate among college players continues to soar, and too many courses have a guy peddling nefarious science to good people. In fact, we do at my course!

The question is, what impact does all this have on college-age and younger kids? At this point, we honestly don’t know. However, I am going to go out on a limb and say it isn’t good.

Soren Kierkegaard once quipped “I saw it for what it is, and I laughed.” The actions of most coaches and instructors in America are laughable. The problem is that I am not laughing because they are doing damage to kids, as well as driving good people away from this game.

The fact is that golfers don’t need more tips, secrets, or lessons. They need to be presented with a better understanding of the key elements of golf. With this understanding, they can then start to frame which information makes sense and what doesn’t. This will emancipate them and allow them to take charge of their own development.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Valspar Championship betting preview: Elite ballstrikers to thrive at Copperhead

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The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2024 Valspar Championship.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermudagrass greens overseeded with POA. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 16, 17 and 18 — also known as the “Snake Pit” — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.

The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. The field this week is solid and is a major improvement over last year’s field that felt the impact of players skipping due to a handful of “signature events” in a short span of time. 

Past Winners at Valspar Championship

  • 2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
  • 2022: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
  • 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
  • 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
  • 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
  • 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Copperhead

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can’t be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)

  1. Tony Finau (+.90)
  2. Nick Taylor (+.81)
  3. Justin Thomas (+.77)
  4. Greyson Sigg (+.69)
  5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+.67)

2. Good Drive %

The long hitters can be a bit limited here due to the tree-lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important, but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.

Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+91.3%) 
  2. Zach Johnson (+91.1%)
  3. Sam Ryder (+90.5%)
  4. Ryan Moore (+90.4%)
  5. Aaron Rai (+89.7%)

3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1.32)
  2. Keith Mitchell (+1.29)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.24)
  4. Cameron Young (+1.17) 
  5. Doug Ghim (+.95)

4. Bogey Avoidance

With the conditions likely to be difficult, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, oftentimes the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.

Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.

Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+9.0)
  2. Xander Schauffele (+9.3)
  3. Austin Cook (+9.7) 
  4. Chesson Hadley (+10.0)
  5. Greyson Sigg (+10.2)

5. Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions

Conditions will be tough this week at Copperhead. I am looking for golfers who can rise to the occasion if the course plays as difficult as it has in the past.

Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1,71) 
  2. Min Woo Lee (+1.39)
  3. Cameron Young (+1.27)
  4. Jordan Spieth (+1.08)
  5. Justin Suh (+.94)

6. Course History

That statistic will tell us which players have played well at Copperhead in the past.

Course History Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+3.75) 
  2. Sam Burns (+2.49)
  3. Davis Riley (+2.33)
  4. Matt NeSmith (+2.22)
  5. Jordan Spieth (+2.04)

The Valspar Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Good Drive % (15%), SG: BS (20%), Bogeys Avoided (13%), Course History (13%) Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions (12%).

  1. Xander Schauffele
  2. Doug Ghim
  3. Victor Perez
  4. Greyson Sigg
  5. Ryan Moore
  6. Tony Finau
  7. Justin Thomas
  8. Sam Ryder
  9. Sam Burns
  10. Lucas Glover

2024 Valspar Championship Picks

Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)

Justin Thomas will be disappointed with his finish at last week’s PLAYERS Championship, as the past champion missed the cut despite being in some decent form heading into the event. Despite the missed cut, JT hit the ball really well. In his two rounds, the two-time major champion led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach per round.

Thomas has been up and down this season. He’s missed the cut in two “signature events” but also has finishes of T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T6 at the Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am and T3 at the American Express. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in the field.

Thomas loves Copperhead. In his last three tries at the course, he’s finished T13, T3 and T10. Thomas would have loved to get a win at a big event early in the season, but avoidable mistakes and a balky putter have cost him dearly. I believe a trip to a course he loves in a field he should be able to capitalize on is the right recipe for JT to right the ship.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (FanDuel)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is playing spectacular golf in the 2024 season. He finished 2nd at the American Express, T20 at Pebble Beach and T24 at the Genesis Invitational before finishing T13 at last week’s PLAYERS Championship.

In his past 24 rounds, the South African ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 26th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. Bezuidenhout managed to work his way around TPC Sawgrass last week with minimal damage. He only made five bogeys in the entire week, which is a great sign heading into a difficult Copperhead this week.

Bezuidenhout is winless in his PGA Tour career, but certainly has the talent to win on Tour. His recent iron play tells me that this week could be a breakthrough for the 35-year-old who has eyes on the President’s Cup.

Doug Ghim +8000 (FanDuel)

Doug Ghim has finished in the top-16 of his past five starts. Most recently, Ghim finished T16 at The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field.

In his past 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 5th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. In terms of his fit for Copperhead, the 27-year-old ranks 12th in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions, making him a great fit for the course.

Ghim has yet to win on Tour, but at one point he was the top ranked Amateur golfer in the world and played in the 2017 Arnold Palmer Cup and 2017 Walker Cup. He then won the Ben Hogan award for the best male college golfer in 2018. He certainly has the talent, and there are signals aplenty that his talent in ready to take him to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour.

Sepp Straka +8000 (BetRivers)

Sepp Straka is a player who’s shown he has the type of game that can translate to a difficult Florida golf course. The former Presidents Cup participant won the 2022 Honda Classic in tough conditions and should thrive with a similar test at Copperhead.

It’s been a slow 2024 for Straka, but his performance last week at the PLAYERS Championship surely provides some optimism. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach as well as 1.88 strokes off the tee. The tee-to-green game Straka showed on a course with plenty of danger demonstrates that he can stay in control of his golf ball this week.

It’s possible that the strong performance last week was an outlier, but I’m willing to bet on a proven winner in a weaker field at a great number.

Victor Perez +12000 (FanDuel)

Victor Perez is no stranger to success in professional golf. The Frenchman has three DP World Tour wins including a Rolex Series event. He won the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, as well as the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which are some big events.

Perez earned his PGA Tour card this season and enters the week playing some fantastic golf. He finished in a tie for 16th in Florida at the Cognizant Classic and then tied for third in his most recent start at the Puerto Rico Open.

In his past 24 rounds in the field, Perez ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 1oth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Good Drive % and 15th in Bogey Avoidance.

Perez comes in as a perfect fit for Copperhead and offers serious value at triple-digit odds.

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