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The Words Golfers Never Want to Hear

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Since this story (and the future stories I will share) may not paint me in the best light, I decided to write under a pen name. Full disclosure: my employer also didn’t think it was cool that I would be writing for a golf website. 

My wife came to me other day and said the words you never want to hear from your spouse: “I think we should quit the country club.” The chain of events this set off inside my head was like nothing you can imagine. On second thought, you’re on GolfWRX, so you know exactly what went through my head. I’ll save all the details of conversation for another time, but for now I can tell you that I put on quite a show after she uttered those words.

The best way I can describe the next hour of my life is to compare it to how you act when your wife shuts down your request to play 18….the day after you just played 36. You know deep down you shouldn’t be asking to play again, but you give it a shot anyway. It sounds something like this: “Oh honey, I’ll cut the grass when I get home.” Or “How about after the round, I take you to that new restaurant you’ve been wanting to try?” Or “I know I played 36 today, but when I get back I’ll put a new roof on the house. Pleeeease.” We’ve all been there, and if you take that scenario and multiply it by 50, that’s where I was in my head.

At some point during this hour, I realized a couple of things. First, I realized golf is more than just a sport to me. It’s a way of life, something I love, and something I don’t want to give up. My day is constantly filled with thoughts of golf. The first thing I do when I get to work? I check out the GolfWRX Classifieds to see if anything interesting was posted since last night when I went to bed. Lunch break? I’ll check eBay for the golf-related items I’m watching. When I get home, I flip on the Golf Channel while I change out of my work clothes. It might not be healthy, but it’s my life, and like many of you, I’m OK with that.

The other thing I realized in that hour was that all of the people who have told me my life is like a sitcom were correct. I say this because, at one point, the thought crossed my mind to try to fake cry! At another point, I thought about making up a story about playing golf with my dad as a kid, the memories I had of it, blah blah blah. Somewhere in middle of all of that, I even contemplated acting as if I was having chest pains.

At the end of the day I didn’t do any of that. For the most part, I acted like an adult… sort of. To be clear, though, if you would have told me that any of those acts was a surefire way to end the conversation and keep my membership, I would have done it in a heartbeat. Unfortunately, I know my acting skills suck and my wife can see right through them.

Her reason for wanting to quit was valid; it costs a lot of money. I can’t argue with that, because it’s true. I belong to one of the nicer country clubs in the area, and the golf course is the crown jewel. It hosts local qualifiers, USGA events, etc. and it’s less than 5 minutes from my house. It has a great practice facility with a full range, three practice greens, and a short game area. The fact that it is less than 5 minutes from my house is the cherry on top. When my wife looks at the club, she sees it as something standing between her and our next home-improvement project. After plenty of back and forth, we agreed that if I wanted to keep our membership, I had to come up with a way to offset some of the costs of the club.

After the conversation, I went straight to where I do my best work… well, the second-best place, which is my man cave/basement. My objective was clear; I had to come up with a way to make some money on the side, and I had to come up with it fast before my wife changed her mind. I did what any of us would do in this situation; I decided to hit some putts for a half hour to clear my head, and then I got started.

Since I’m a 7-handicap, turning pro was out of the question. I thought I could be a golf writer, but the life of a journalist isn’t for me. Then it hit me…. the thing where everyone thinks my life is a sitcom. That led me to the brilliant idea to share these stories and hope that I can somehow use them to help me keep my membership. I’m open to other ideas (or donations) if you got them.

To be honest, I don’t think my stories are out of the ordinary, but my co-workers and friends constantly tell me they are. Like the time my club-championship match went into a five-hole playoff and my wife had to go to a party by herself is a pretty good one.  Although the time I fell down the stairs while trying to sneak out of the house at 5 a.m. to play an early round is probably better.

The one my buddies enjoy is when I got caught putting fake calendar appointments in my wife’s phone that made us look busy on important days like Masters Sunday, the Ryder Cup, and my fantasy golf draft. To the say least, I have plenty of them, and her wanting to quit the club isn’t going away anytime soon. I’m sure that will lead to more. So I’m going to share all of the stories and see if it leads me to a way to keep my membership.

Wish me luck!

For feedback (or donations) please email me at [email protected]. You can also follow me on Twitter at @Joey_Ruggeri. 

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Joe Ruggeri is a former collegiate golfer from Missouri who is probably one of the most competitive guys you will ever meet. He describes his non-golf profession as "what he has to do so he can fund his golf habit." Twitter: @Joey_Ruggeri Email: [email protected] Youtube: coming soon

37 Comments

37 Comments

  1. nobody2u

    Oct 30, 2017 at 2:35 am

    What man would rather not want to spend more time at home. He gets a fresh list of honey do’s and told how bad of a husband he has been for spending time with friends that applaud good shots are not so cynical when you light a cigar or open a beer. If you do that at home and her mother should suddenly drop in, what a lovely time that is. Then you have all of the stuff on TV that you are getting to miss when you could be spending the afternoon with the understanding laughing friends and cart girls or the cute waitresses in the 19th hole that are willing to get whatever you want at your little hearts desire. I don’t know what man would give up that comradery among friends to be able to spend some quality time with the unpleasant person at home. Give her a little boost to either spend some time at the pool, you can charge drinks or other things at the pool, or send her shopping, she has a million options and yours should not be impeded.

  2. Lance

    Oct 20, 2017 at 4:22 pm

    Currently, I’m entertaining a golf widow/model/trophy wife while old hubby is obsessed with his golf handicap and spends his days on the course and nights in the clubhouse.
    My club also has tennis courts and I met her playing tennis and it started from then. She’s so happy now. Me too.

    • Da Judge

      Oct 22, 2017 at 9:55 pm

      Wife: “Golf course or inter course…. choose!”
      Hubby: “Uuuum ….. “

  3. Travis

    Oct 19, 2017 at 9:09 am

    I stopped reading this in the very beginning when you talked about “asking for permission” to go play golf… how about you get into a relationship where you two respect what each other wants to do.

    I’ve never once had to “ask permission” to go play golf, nor does she ever “ask permission” to do her hobbies. We respect that those hobbies are each others’ passions, and that’s that.

    Do you also “ask permission” to sleep in the bed again and not the couch in the living room? Pathetic.

  4. nobody2u

    Oct 18, 2017 at 4:40 pm

    Your bragging about adultery, I don’t know if you are religious or Catholic, but, condemning yourself to the crimes of the flesh, you may want to re think at what you think is funny. I am not a Holy person but I promise you if I came in my home and found you trying to get out the window, you better be ready to have that thing you spent the last few seconds with to land on top of your point little head. See many of those golf widows don’t walk away with everything the man has worked his whole life for, so you may be acquiring a sweat little thing in your endeavors. And yes that is from experience, still glad that little fella did me such a great favor, I got the house and the kids, guess whats she’s doing,,, but not with me.

    • Lance

      Oct 20, 2017 at 4:13 pm

      Bitter bitter golf dude…. and fyi, all the golf widows come to my pad to get what they don’t get from their golfing hubby who prefers to spend time with his equally impotent buddies on the golf course.
      A neglected woman will seek loving companionship wherever she can find it…. and they find me … and there are so many of them. Once a couple of them came to me for ……. you know.

  5. Bob

    Oct 18, 2017 at 11:57 am

    A simple divorce should cure your problems

    • Barry

      Oct 18, 2017 at 4:46 pm

      Only if you’ve been smart enough to hide your assets from your wife

  6. Busty McBoob

    Oct 18, 2017 at 10:55 am

    I still don’t get the reasons for marriage other than we’re trained from a very young age that marriage is just something you’re supposed to do in life. All my married friends bitch and moan about all the time about their wives not ‘letting them’ do stuff. Man up, take your (non golf) balls back and tell her you’re not quitting the country club.

    • Lance

      Oct 19, 2017 at 12:15 pm

      Such man golfers are perpetual children seeking pleasure on the golf course… while I get pleasure from their golf widows.

  7. Eldrick T

    Oct 18, 2017 at 3:38 am

    I thought I was at a country club in California but somehow I ended up in a ditch in armpit Florida

  8. Eldrick T

    Oct 18, 2017 at 3:37 am

    There was only one fire hydrant outside my house

  9. Ben Jones

    Oct 17, 2017 at 11:07 pm

    My wife loved the country club. Man I miss those days! Camelot, yes it was. Then we had to move to somewhere where the courses are semi-private. What does that mean? It means crowded course, lousy tee times, and a chopped up practice area. Worst of all, the range balls are dead and the practice bunker is in the shank zone. Man, I miss that time.

  10. 8thehardway

    Oct 17, 2017 at 5:04 pm

    I wrote on this subject a decade ago and will share my still-valid observations.

    Share your heartfelt disclosures with your wife and suggest marriage counseling. The USGA secretly maintains a list of marriage counselors, attorneys and judges ranked by handicap and Country Club affiliation so you will probably find a sympathetic ear in your neighborhood… just mention my user name.

    If things don’t go well buy a home in Myrtle Beach and move divorce proceedings there… all decisions invariably favor the golfer and that includes custodial issues; be sure to mention how much you’ll save employing your children as caddies rather than paying those outrageous cart fees.

    If you insist on staying domiciled in your present location and your wife isn’t employed, suggest the virtues of being a cart girl… the extra income, the opportunity to see more of you on weekends, saving money on mid-round snacks and how she can gather valuable information on whose new equipment purchases aren’t working out (handy to know for wagers or inexpensive purchases).

    Above all, maintain your handicap and a positive outlook… women come and go but golf courses tend to linger.

    • Lance

      Oct 19, 2017 at 12:13 pm

      I feast on golf widows….. and they feast on me!

  11. MS

    Oct 17, 2017 at 1:36 pm

    Donation… Sorry ain’t goint to happen. Not a member of a private club, never have been, probably never will be. Best I can do is season pass as a public course.

  12. Milo

    Oct 17, 2017 at 12:59 pm

    1st world problems

  13. AJ

    Oct 17, 2017 at 12:56 am

    keep the club but she will be gone. Shes giving you an out take it from experience

    • Lance

      Oct 18, 2017 at 12:20 pm

      Golf widows are primed for nookie. I know.

  14. Judge Smeills

    Oct 16, 2017 at 5:53 pm

    Its not about the money, she just mentioned money because its better than saying that she hates golf and the amount of time you spend playing.

    • Lance

      Oct 20, 2017 at 4:16 pm

      Golf widows that I know well never complain about the time hubby spends at the country club …. and in fact encourages him to go play with the boys….. and then there’s me waiting and not for long ….lol

  15. Bullsfan

    Oct 16, 2017 at 4:31 pm

    Been there and done that. Where did it get me, Divorced and on the hook for 20yrs. I get where you are coming from, I too am a lifelong golfer who has played collegiately and come from a long line of family golfers. It’s not a hobby, it truly is a life. I may not play or run a country club as my main source of employment, but for me and my family it’s the same. I was a member for 11 years at one of the most prestigious courses in my area, only 250 members and most had the money to buy 3rd world countries. So when the time came, 2007-08, in the middle of the downturn I had to give up my membership. Now other things happened personally and professionally that led to my divorce, but not being a member at my club anymore didn’t help my issues. Life hit hard and I had to reevaluate my life and what was important. Now today I have rebounded well, gainfully employed in my chosen field and remarried happily and fittingly enough live in a new home right across the street from a country club my parents were members at when I was growing up, but I haven’t joined! Would I like too, sure, but my lessons learned from my past is, it’s not the right time. I still play golf once, twice a week. I have friends all over my area who are either members or work at various clubs that I play with and for those times I’m not playing with them I pay my $30 and head out somewhere else and get my fix. What I’m saying is it’s not all that bad not having a membership. Would it be nice, sure. But there are other ways to play and enjoy tournaments and competition. You may want to look into these before your better half decides to do it for you.

    • sanjay

      Oct 16, 2017 at 8:01 pm

      $30?? A muni is not a country club….

      • CrashTestDummy

        Oct 17, 2017 at 2:21 am

        I have played a lot at both country clubs and public golf courses. Generally the shape of courses at country clubs are in better shape (especially the greens and bunkers). However, many public tracks are just as good if not better tracks that country clubs. You can still play good courses for 30-50 bucks in my area and really good courses for 60-80 bucks. Only a few are munis. Munis are not bad if the greens are decent and a decent track. You still have to hit good shots and play golf.

  16. Steve

    Oct 16, 2017 at 3:55 pm

    Divorce her before you have children and you’re on her hook for 20 years.

  17. Acemandrake

    Oct 16, 2017 at 3:35 pm

    “We already have three.”

  18. sanjay

    Oct 16, 2017 at 3:23 pm

    Methinks you are misreading your wife’s suggestion to quit the country club. Perhaps her motives are justifiably selfish.
    When she says: “I think we should quit the country club.”….. she may be telling you she wants you to spend more quality time with her than with your buddies, playing 36 holes and then coming home and telling her “I’m too tired for that… maybe tomorrow.”
    The problem is that within most adult men there is a child who wants to play, for the pleasure… and with other men. Your fine wife is sending you a signal that everything is not fine with her because you want to play games rather than tending to her needs. Ya think…?!!

    • Mower

      Oct 16, 2017 at 7:28 pm

      Yep. It’s psychological jiu-jitsu. They’re trained from a very young age.

    • Lance

      Oct 18, 2017 at 12:16 pm

      I search out such golf widows and they are starved for companionship. Me like ….

  19. ray arcade

    Oct 16, 2017 at 3:20 pm

    And here I always thought it was “…you’re still away”.

    • sanjay

      Oct 16, 2017 at 3:27 pm

      Nice…. but women become gregarious when ignored and neglected for too long. In that case “…you’re still away” may be her opportunity to find pleasant companionship.

      • AW

        Oct 16, 2017 at 5:04 pm

        Maybe that’s the best solution if he can keep the membership. 🙂

        • sanjay

          Oct 16, 2017 at 7:59 pm

          Men who eschew sex for golf are …. well, you know…. the majority ….!

      • Lance

        Oct 18, 2017 at 12:18 pm

        Yup, I’ve had ‘companionship’ with many a golf widow.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open betting preview

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As the Florida swing comes to an end, the PGA Tour makes its way to Houston to play the Texas Children’s Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course.

This will be the fourth year that Memorial Park Golf Course will serve as the tournament host. The event did not take place in 2023, but the course hosted the event in 2020, 2021 and 2022.

Memorial Park is a par-70 layout measuring 7,432 yards and features Bermudagrass greens. Historically, the main defense for the course has been thick rough along the fairways and tightly mown runoff areas around the greens. Memorial Park has a unique setup that features three Par 5’s and five Par 3’s.

The field will consist of 132 players, with the top 65 and ties making the cut. There are some big names making the trip to Houston, including Scottie Scheffler, Wyndham Clark, Tony Finau, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala.

Past Winners at Memorial Park

  • 2022: Tony Finau (-16)
  • 2021: Jason Kokrak (-10)
  • 2020: Carlos Ortiz (-13)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Memorial Park

Let’s take a look at several metrics for Memorial Park to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds:

Strokes Gained: Approach

Memorial Park is a pretty tough golf course. Golfers are penalized for missing greens and face some difficult up and downs to save par. Approach will be key.

Total Strokes Gained: Approach per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.30)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.26)
  3. Keith Mitchell (+0.97) 
  4. Tony Finau (+0.92)
  5. Jake Knapp (+0.84)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Memorial Park is a long golf course with rough that can be penal. Therefore, a combination of distance and accuracy is the best metric.

Total Strokes Gained: Off the Tee per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+0.94)
  2. Kevin Dougherty (+0.93)
  3. Cameron Champ (+0.86)
  4. Rafael Campos (+0.84)
  5. Si Woo Kim (+0.70)

Strokes Gained Putting: Bermudagrass + Fast

The Bermudagrass greens played fairly fast the past few years in Houston. Jason Kokrak gained 8.7 strokes putting on his way to victory in 2021 and Tony Finau gained in 7.8 in 2022.

Total Strokes Gained Putting (Bermudagrass) per round past 24 rounds (min. 8 rounds):

  1. Adam Svensson (+1.27)
  2. Harry Hall (+1.01)
  3. Martin Trainer (+0.94)
  4. Taylor Montgomery (+0.88)
  5. S.H. Kim (+0.86)

Strokes Gained: Around the Green

With firm and undulating putting surfaces, holding the green on approach shots may prove to be a challenge. Memorial Park has many tightly mowed runoff areas, so golfers will have challenging up-and-down’s around the greens. Carlos Ortiz gained 5.7 strokes around the green on the way to victory in 2020.

Total Strokes Gained: Around the Green per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Mackenzie Hughes (+0.76)
  2. S.H. Kim (+0.68)
  3. Scottie Scheffler (+0.64)
  4. Jorge Campillo (+0.62)
  5. Jason Day (+0.60)

Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult

Memorial Park is a long and difficult golf course. This statistic will incorporate players who’ve had success on these types of tracks in the past. 

Total Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.45)
  2. Ben Griffin (+1.75)
  3. Will Zalatoris (+1.73)
  4. Ben Taylor (+1.53)
  5. Tony Finau (+1.42)

Course History

Here are the players who have performed the most consistently at Memorial Park. 

Strokes Gained Total at Memorial Park past 12 rounds:

  1. Tyson Alexander (+3.65)
  2. Ben Taylor (+3.40)
  3. Tony Finau (+2.37)
  4. Joel Dahmen (+2.25)
  5. Patton Kizzire (+2.16)

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (24%) SG: OTT (24%); SG: Putting Bermudagrass/Fast (13%); SG: Long and Difficult (13%); SG: ARG (13%) and Course History (13%)

  1. Scottie Scheffler
  2. Wyndham Clark
  3. Tony Finau
  4. Joel Dahmen
  5. Stephan Jaeger 
  6. Aaron Rai
  7. Sahith Theegala
  8. Keith Mitchell 
  9. Jhonnatan Vegas
  10. Jason Day
  11. Kurt Kitayama
  12. Alex Noren
  13. Will Zalatoris
  14. Si Woo Kim
  15. Adam Long

2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open Picks

Will Zalatoris +2000 (Caesars)

Scottie Scheffler will undoubtedly be difficult to beat this week, so I’m starting my card with someone who I believe has the talent to beat him if he doesn’t have his best stuff.

Will Zalatoris missed the cut at the PLAYERS, but still managed to gain strokes on approach while doing so. In an unpredictable event with extreme variance, I don’t believe it would be wise to discount Zalatoris based on that performance. Prior to The PLAYERS, the 27-year-old finished T13, T2 and T4 in his previous three starts.

Zalatoris plays his best golf on long and difficult golf courses. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the category, but the eye test also tells a similar story. He’s contended at major championships and elevated events in the best of fields with tough scoring conditions.  The Texas resident should be a perfect fit at Memorial Park Golf Club.

Alex Noren +4500 (FanDuel)

Alex Noren has been quietly playing some of his best golf of the last half decade this season. The 41-year-old is coming off back-to-back top-20 finishes in Florida including a T9 at The PLAYERS in his most recent start.

In his past 24 rounds, Noren ranks 21st in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 30th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, 25th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses and 21st in Strokes Gained: Putting on fast Bermudagrass greens.

In addition to his strong recent play, the Swede also has played well at Memorial Park. In 2022, Noren finished T4 at the event, gaining 2.2 strokes off the tee and 7.0 strokes on approach for the week. In his two starts at the course, he’s gained an average of .6 strokes per round on the field, indicating he is comfortable on these greens.

Noren has been due for a win for what feels like an eternity, but Memorial Park may be the course that suits him well enough for him to finally get his elusive first PGA Tour victory.

Mackenzie Hughes +8000 (FanDuel)

Mackenzie Hughes found himself deep into contention at last week’s Valspar Championship before faltering late and finishing in a tie for 3rd place. While he would have loved to win the event, it’s hard to see the performance as anything other than an overwhelming positive sign for the Canadian.

Hughes has played great golf at Memorial Park in the past. He finished T7 in 2020, T29 in 2021 and T16 in 2022. The course fit seems to be quite strong for Hughes. He’s added distance off the tee in the past year or and ranks 8th in the field for apex height, which will be a key factor when hitting into Memorial Park’s elevated greens with steep run-off areas.

In his past 24 rounds, Hughes is the best player in the field in Strokes Gained: Around the Greens. The ability to scramble at this course will be extremely important. I believe Hughes can build off of his strong finish last week and contend once again to cement himself as a President’s Cup consideration.

Akshay Bhatia +8000 (FanDuel)

Akshay Bhatia played well last week at the Valspar and seemed to be in total control of his golf ball. He finished in a tie for 17th and shot an impressive -3 on a difficult Sunday. After struggling Thursday, Akshay shot 68-70-68 in his next three rounds.

Thus far, Bhatia has played better at easier courses, but his success at Copperhead may be due to his game maturing. The 22-year-old has enormous potential and the raw talent to be one of the best players in the world when he figures it all out.

Bhatia is a high upside play with superstar qualities and may just take the leap forward to the next stage of his career in the coming months.

Cameron Champ +12000 (FanDuel)

Cameron Champ is a player I often target in the outright betting market due to his “boom-or-bust” nature. It’s hard to think of a player in recent history with three PGA Tour wins who’s been as inconsistent as Champ has over the course of his career.

Despite the erratic play, Cam Champ simply knows how to win. He’s won in 2018, 2019 and 2021, so I feel he’s due for a win at some point this season. The former Texas A&M product should be comfortable in Texas and last week he showed us that his game is in a pretty decent spot.

Over his past 24 rounds, Champ ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 30th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses. Given his ability to spike at any given time, Memorial Park is a good golf course to target Champ on at triple digit odds.

Robert MacIntyre +12000 (FanDuel)

The challenge this week is finding players who can possibly beat Scottie Scheffler while also not dumping an enormous amount of money into an event that has a player at the top that looks extremely dangerous. Enter McIntyre, who’s another boom-or-bust type player who has the ceiling to compete with anyone when his game is clicking on all cylinders.

In his past 24 rounds, MacIntyre ranks 16th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 17th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and 10th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses.

MacIntyre’s PGA Tour season has gotten off to a slow start, but he finished T6 in Mexico, which is a course where players will hit driver on the majority of their tee shots, which is what we will see at Memorial Park. Texas can also get quite windy, which should suit MacIntyre. Last July, the Scot went toe to toe with Rory McIlroy at the Scottish Open before a narrow defeat. It would take a similar heroic effort to compete with Scheffler this year in Houston.

Ryan Moore +15000 (FanDuel)

Ryan Moore’s iron play has been absolutely unconscious over his past few starts. At The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field, he gained 6.1 strokes on approach and last week at Copperhead, he gained 9.0 strokes on approach.

It’s been a rough handful of years on Tour for the 41-year-old, but he is still a five-time winner on the PGA Tour who’s young enough for a career resurgence. Moore has chronic deterioration in a costovertebral joint that connects the rib to the spine, but has been getting more consistent of late, which is hopefully a sign that he is getting healthy.

Veterans have been contending in 2024 and I believe taking a flier on a proven Tour play who’s shown signs of life is a wise move at Memorial Park.

 

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Why the race to get better at golf might be doing more harm than good

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B.F. Skinner was one of the most important psychologists of the 20th century, developing the foundation of the development of reinforcement, and in doing so, creating the concept of behaviorism. In simple terms, this means that we are conditioned by our habits. In practical terms, it explains the divide between the few and far between elite instructors and college coaches.

To understand the application, let’s quickly review one of B.F. Skinner’s most important experiments; superstitions in the formation of behavior by pigeons. In this experiment, food was dispensed to pigeons at random intervals. Soon, according to Skinner, the pigeons began to associate whatever action they were doing at the time of the food being dispensed. According to Skinner, this conditioned that response and soon, they simply haphazardly repeated the action, failing to distinguish between cause and correlation (and in the meantime, looking really funny!).

Now, this is simply the best way to describe the actions of most every women’s college golf coach and too many instructors in America. They see something work, get positive feedback and then become conditioned to give the feedback, more and more, regardless of if it works (this is also why tips from your buddies never work!).

Go to a college event, particularly a women’s one, and you will see coaches running all over the place. Like the pigeons in the experiment, they have been conditioned into a codependent relationship with their players in which they believe their words and actions, can transform a round of golf. It is simply hilarious while being equally perturbing

In junior golf, it’s everywhere. Junior golf academies make a living selling parents that a hysterical coach and over-coaching are essential ingredients in your child’s success.

Let’s be clear, no one of any intellect has any real interest in golf — because it’s not that interesting. The people left, including most coaches and instructors, carve out a small fiefdom, usually on the corner of the range, where they use the illusion of competency to pray on people. In simple terms, they baffle people with the bullshit of pseudo-science that they can make you better, after just one more lesson.

The reality is that life is an impromptu game. The world of golf, business, and school have a message that the goal is being right. This, of course, is bad advice, being right in your own mind is easy, trying to push your ideas on others is hard. As a result, it is not surprising that the divorce rate among golf professionals and their instructors is 100 percent. The transfer rate among college players continues to soar, and too many courses have a guy peddling nefarious science to good people. In fact, we do at my course!

The question is, what impact does all this have on college-age and younger kids? At this point, we honestly don’t know. However, I am going to go out on a limb and say it isn’t good.

Soren Kierkegaard once quipped “I saw it for what it is, and I laughed.” The actions of most coaches and instructors in America are laughable. The problem is that I am not laughing because they are doing damage to kids, as well as driving good people away from this game.

The fact is that golfers don’t need more tips, secrets, or lessons. They need to be presented with a better understanding of the key elements of golf. With this understanding, they can then start to frame which information makes sense and what doesn’t. This will emancipate them and allow them to take charge of their own development.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Valspar Championship betting preview: Elite ballstrikers to thrive at Copperhead

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The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2024 Valspar Championship.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermudagrass greens overseeded with POA. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 16, 17 and 18 — also known as the “Snake Pit” — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.

The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. The field this week is solid and is a major improvement over last year’s field that felt the impact of players skipping due to a handful of “signature events” in a short span of time. 

Past Winners at Valspar Championship

  • 2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
  • 2022: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
  • 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
  • 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
  • 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
  • 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Copperhead

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can’t be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)

  1. Tony Finau (+.90)
  2. Nick Taylor (+.81)
  3. Justin Thomas (+.77)
  4. Greyson Sigg (+.69)
  5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+.67)

2. Good Drive %

The long hitters can be a bit limited here due to the tree-lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important, but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.

Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+91.3%) 
  2. Zach Johnson (+91.1%)
  3. Sam Ryder (+90.5%)
  4. Ryan Moore (+90.4%)
  5. Aaron Rai (+89.7%)

3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1.32)
  2. Keith Mitchell (+1.29)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.24)
  4. Cameron Young (+1.17) 
  5. Doug Ghim (+.95)

4. Bogey Avoidance

With the conditions likely to be difficult, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, oftentimes the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.

Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.

Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+9.0)
  2. Xander Schauffele (+9.3)
  3. Austin Cook (+9.7) 
  4. Chesson Hadley (+10.0)
  5. Greyson Sigg (+10.2)

5. Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions

Conditions will be tough this week at Copperhead. I am looking for golfers who can rise to the occasion if the course plays as difficult as it has in the past.

Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1,71) 
  2. Min Woo Lee (+1.39)
  3. Cameron Young (+1.27)
  4. Jordan Spieth (+1.08)
  5. Justin Suh (+.94)

6. Course History

That statistic will tell us which players have played well at Copperhead in the past.

Course History Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+3.75) 
  2. Sam Burns (+2.49)
  3. Davis Riley (+2.33)
  4. Matt NeSmith (+2.22)
  5. Jordan Spieth (+2.04)

The Valspar Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Good Drive % (15%), SG: BS (20%), Bogeys Avoided (13%), Course History (13%) Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions (12%).

  1. Xander Schauffele
  2. Doug Ghim
  3. Victor Perez
  4. Greyson Sigg
  5. Ryan Moore
  6. Tony Finau
  7. Justin Thomas
  8. Sam Ryder
  9. Sam Burns
  10. Lucas Glover

2024 Valspar Championship Picks

Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)

Justin Thomas will be disappointed with his finish at last week’s PLAYERS Championship, as the past champion missed the cut despite being in some decent form heading into the event. Despite the missed cut, JT hit the ball really well. In his two rounds, the two-time major champion led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach per round.

Thomas has been up and down this season. He’s missed the cut in two “signature events” but also has finishes of T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T6 at the Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am and T3 at the American Express. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in the field.

Thomas loves Copperhead. In his last three tries at the course, he’s finished T13, T3 and T10. Thomas would have loved to get a win at a big event early in the season, but avoidable mistakes and a balky putter have cost him dearly. I believe a trip to a course he loves in a field he should be able to capitalize on is the right recipe for JT to right the ship.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (FanDuel)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is playing spectacular golf in the 2024 season. He finished 2nd at the American Express, T20 at Pebble Beach and T24 at the Genesis Invitational before finishing T13 at last week’s PLAYERS Championship.

In his past 24 rounds, the South African ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 26th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. Bezuidenhout managed to work his way around TPC Sawgrass last week with minimal damage. He only made five bogeys in the entire week, which is a great sign heading into a difficult Copperhead this week.

Bezuidenhout is winless in his PGA Tour career, but certainly has the talent to win on Tour. His recent iron play tells me that this week could be a breakthrough for the 35-year-old who has eyes on the President’s Cup.

Doug Ghim +8000 (FanDuel)

Doug Ghim has finished in the top-16 of his past five starts. Most recently, Ghim finished T16 at The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field.

In his past 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 5th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. In terms of his fit for Copperhead, the 27-year-old ranks 12th in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions, making him a great fit for the course.

Ghim has yet to win on Tour, but at one point he was the top ranked Amateur golfer in the world and played in the 2017 Arnold Palmer Cup and 2017 Walker Cup. He then won the Ben Hogan award for the best male college golfer in 2018. He certainly has the talent, and there are signals aplenty that his talent in ready to take him to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour.

Sepp Straka +8000 (BetRivers)

Sepp Straka is a player who’s shown he has the type of game that can translate to a difficult Florida golf course. The former Presidents Cup participant won the 2022 Honda Classic in tough conditions and should thrive with a similar test at Copperhead.

It’s been a slow 2024 for Straka, but his performance last week at the PLAYERS Championship surely provides some optimism. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach as well as 1.88 strokes off the tee. The tee-to-green game Straka showed on a course with plenty of danger demonstrates that he can stay in control of his golf ball this week.

It’s possible that the strong performance last week was an outlier, but I’m willing to bet on a proven winner in a weaker field at a great number.

Victor Perez +12000 (FanDuel)

Victor Perez is no stranger to success in professional golf. The Frenchman has three DP World Tour wins including a Rolex Series event. He won the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, as well as the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which are some big events.

Perez earned his PGA Tour card this season and enters the week playing some fantastic golf. He finished in a tie for 16th in Florida at the Cognizant Classic and then tied for third in his most recent start at the Puerto Rico Open.

In his past 24 rounds in the field, Perez ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 1oth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Good Drive % and 15th in Bogey Avoidance.

Perez comes in as a perfect fit for Copperhead and offers serious value at triple-digit odds.

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