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Like It Or Not, Ultra-Premium Golf Equipment Is Here To Stay

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Back in 2015, Bob Parsons burst onto the golf scene with PXG. Its ultra-premium pricing, eccentric CEO, and bombastic brand image have remained a lightning rod for attention in the golf industry for the last two years. Some people love it. Some people hate it. Nearly everyone has an opinion on the matter, and they will argue it until their face turns blue. There’s one thing it’s time for us all to agree on, though, regardless of which side of that fence you happen to be. Parsons started something. It has officially stuck. And it’s not going anywhere.

About a month ago, I wrote an article surmising that the vast majority of golf clubs are incredibly well priced. I also stated that some equipment manufacturers are looking to reach new heights in that regard, and ultimately, consumers will vote with their wallets as to the validity of those prices. After letting that idea marinate for a little bit, I think the aforementioned validity is already bubbling up to the surface. Consumers are buying it.

The obvious place to start is with TaylorMade, which launched its P-790 irons about a month ago. While their retail price is less than half of a comparable set of PXG irons, their construction (a hollow head filled with “Speed Foam” and tungsten to increase MOI) was strikingly similar to PXG’s 0311 (a hollow head filled with TPE and tungsten screws to provide perimeter weighting). The constructions are similar enough, in fact, that Parsons has elected to drag them to court over the matter. Time will tell on that one.

The company that’s probably most excited about that lawsuit is Callaway, which has been leaning pretty heavily on the accelerator pedal in its own right. In January, the company released the GBB Epic and GBB Epic Sub Zero drivers at a price of $499.999 each. Later came its Epic and Epic Pro irons at roughly $2,000 a set, and just recently, Callaway released an ultra-lightweight line of Epic Star clubs. Those will hit the streets at $699.99 for a driver and $2,400 for an eight-piece set of irons. Callaway isn’t filling its irons with SpeedFoam or TPE, but it is reaching for the same ultra-premium price points.

Even if you step outside of the “big boys,” you’ll notice that as long as a company is providing an exceeding level of technology, quality, customer service, fitting, etc., consumers are more than willing to open up their wallets. Examples include some names that have been around a long time in the “boutique putter” game such as Tyson Lamb, Byron Morgan, and MannKrafted, but can also be stretched into newer craftsmen such as Raybon Putters and Selfmade Flatsticks. I spoke with the owner of Bluegrass Fairway, a company that sells hand-made leather scorecard holders and yardage book covers, who recently told me he was “blown away” by how busy his business is.

If you read the forums and comments sections on GolfWRX and all the other sites across the golf world, you’ll find a lot of belly aching over the price of gear nowadays and also over the gear geeks that buy them. What’s starting to crystallize at this point is that regardless of your personal opinion, this level of gear has officially gained traction in the marketplace. In return, the consumer is getting a very high quality product with unprecedented attention to detail and technological advancement. Who knows how long PXG will be around, but its contribution to the game has already left an impression.

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Peter Schmitt is an avid golfer trying to get better every day, the definition of which changes relatively frequently. He believes that first and foremost, golf should be an enjoyable experience. Always. Peter is a former Marine and a full-time mechanical engineer (outside of the golf industry). He lives in Lexington, KY with his wife and two young kids. "What other people may find in poetry or art museums, I find in the flight of a good drive." -Arnold Palmer

43 Comments

43 Comments

  1. Sean

    Sep 29, 2017 at 9:49 pm

    I have no problem with premium clubs, and I don’t understand people who do. It’s not like golfers are being forced to purchase them. If people want to lay out the cash for these types of clubs, that is their business. It has no affect on either my wallet, or my game.

  2. Steve C

    Sep 29, 2017 at 5:28 pm

    Full disclosure… I am currently a 6 HDCP and have been as low as a 3. So, I am neither a good or bad golfer. I recently went on a vacation to see some friends. Not expecting to play golf, I did not bring my clubs on this trip. I ended up using my buddy’s wife “Golden Bear” set that was likely 10 years old. I shot an 80, which is probably what I would have shot with my own clubs. MY POINT IS THAT I DOUBT SO CALLED PREMIUM CLUBS WILL TRANSLATE TO BETTER SCORES.

  3. Peter Schmitt

    Sep 29, 2017 at 3:11 pm

    Thanks for the reactions and comments as always, guys and gals. As one can plainly see, it’s a polarizing subject, which makes it worth pondering and writing about.

    To be continued… 🙂

  4. Mike

    Sep 29, 2017 at 4:21 am

    Have you forgotten we used to pay $1500 big ones for a”J’s Professional Weapon” driver not so many years ago

  5. AD

    Sep 29, 2017 at 3:02 am

    Ooooh I want my $3000 set of irons, please

  6. Da Judge

    Sep 28, 2017 at 10:25 pm

    Ultra-premium priced golf equipment is so so pathetic. It’s only for show and status. Toys for golfturds!

  7. Andrew

    Sep 28, 2017 at 7:11 pm

    Thanks, shoeshine boy. Now I know the market for “ultra-premium” is topped. Good luck, suckers.

    • Doobie

      Sep 28, 2017 at 7:22 pm

      Next big golf club market is the “Supercalifragilisticexpialidocious” golffing gearhead geeks who don’t play golf… they just want to fill their WITB so they can join golf forums and share their feeelings with other like minded morons.

      • AD

        Sep 29, 2017 at 3:01 am

        You really aged yourself there, girlfriend, with that quote from what was it – Mary Poppins, is it? Lemme look it up on Wiki…..

  8. Methislife

    Sep 28, 2017 at 6:10 pm

    if you can afford a ferrari, go ahead… But your the douche that drives a Ferrari. If you can afford PXG, go ahead.. it’s your money… But your the douche that plays PXG

    • Fredo

      Sep 28, 2017 at 9:47 pm

      I guess that makes you the douch that can’t afford top end anything

      • Da Judge

        Sep 28, 2017 at 10:21 pm

        And what are you? A bottom end golfer with top end ultra-premium clubs?
        You know what that makes you look like? (Clownish).

  9. L

    Sep 28, 2017 at 1:28 pm

    Parsons didn’t start anything really. Brands like Honma pioneered the ultra expensive sometimes funky looking equipment niche way before PXG came along.

    • Doobie

      Sep 28, 2017 at 7:17 pm

      Honma pioneered the ultra expensive clubs because in Asia you are what you own…. even if you can’t hit the golf ball a snot.

  10. BB

    Sep 27, 2017 at 10:35 pm

    GM. Ford and Chrysler owe their survival to pickup truck sales at exhorbitant prices for a cheap to build product. The markup on pickup trucks is huge whereas profits are meager for the econo-sedans because the Asian car builders have the low end market sewn up.
    Similarly the big golf OEMs are not selling enough lower priced clubs to a dwindling market and must seek profits from the upscale market where price is irrelevant.
    So stop slobbering over the premium golf equipment because that’s not for you to judge. People who buy these golfing pickup truck at premium prices are mostly golffing clowns anyway.

    • bbdumdum

      Sep 28, 2017 at 3:01 pm

      You sound jealous. Maybe you can get a used set in a few years.

      • Da Judge

        Sep 28, 2017 at 10:23 pm

        Me jealous? Naaah! I just love to twist you WITB nerds and geeks into pretzels.

        • DaJudgeisJealous

          Sep 29, 2017 at 8:44 am

          Just what we all thought. Jealous. Thanks for confirming.

    • JThunder

      Sep 28, 2017 at 4:23 pm

      The fact that golf sales are down since the dizzying heights since the high point “bubble” of Tiger Woods era hardly makes them “dwindling”… if people would stop drinking the Kool-Aid, then the global economy and corporate culture might actually work.

  11. Tom54

    Sep 27, 2017 at 7:29 pm

    The golfing public is pretty smart when it comes to equipment. Those that love the game and all it’s new products will continue to purchase the latest stuff. Those that don’t have fat wallets will wait a while (not that long anymore) till this years hot item is a fraction of what it was when it was current. That’s the way to go.

  12. Gorden

    Sep 27, 2017 at 4:15 pm

    We all know part of the fun of golf is having new or equipment we really want to play (even if may not be right for our level of play) So having premium equipment is important for ones who can afford that choice. I would worry more about the division in course quality we are facing now…the premium market (Country Clubs etc) are even facing this problem…Just in my area 4 public courses have closed in the last 3 years, 2 more have announced closing in 2018 add to that 2 Private Country clubs in the same area have gone Public this year….must remind those buying premium equipment hitting off bare dirt fairways and putting through weeds on greens may not be worth the price.

  13. Jim

    Sep 27, 2017 at 3:11 pm

    Actually nothing new about appealing to the upscale, luxury (big ego) market. Ever hear of Hiro Honma (who hasn’t)?. Some of their gold-plated stuff goes for well over $10,000 per set of irons.
    Many of their older, lower cost items (PP-717, 727, etc.) are quite wonderful, very playable blades, challenging any muscle back or blade in today’s market.

    • Doobie

      Sep 28, 2017 at 7:24 pm

      In Asia, you are what you own…. even if your slicing drive is only 150 meters…!!

  14. AM

    Sep 27, 2017 at 2:27 pm

    Of course they will be here to stay, and new and improved premium clubs will be available annually.
    The new model clubs will sell because they are aimed at the ultra-rich up-scale market where price doesn’t matter.
    The rest of us peons will play with our 5-7 y.o. clubs and save money for another super-duper driver down the road. The golf market for cheaper clubs is vanishing along with the drop in participation.

  15. Matt

    Sep 27, 2017 at 2:09 pm

    Don’t see a problem with more options. I’m one of few in my group with new gear, though definitely wasn’t in the market for PXG prices. Most of the guys I play with are old school – quality second hand clubs and new balls only for tournaments.

  16. SV

    Sep 27, 2017 at 1:02 pm

    Just keep churning out the equipment at whatever prices the OEMs want. If it’s available left-handed and I like it, I’ll buy it later on Ebay or Global Golf for a lot less and enjoy it just as much.

  17. 06aces

    Sep 27, 2017 at 12:30 pm

    Might be the up and coming market….time will tell…
    a already elite sport played by the rich….becoming harder and harder for the young families to play together…
    Not sure how this grows the game….
    Look at all the golf course closures in Myrtle Beach the last 10 years….
    The true bench mark for golf course is not how many $600 drivers it sells….it is all about…”rounds of golf played per year”……a number that has been declining recently

  18. Sam

    Sep 27, 2017 at 12:12 pm

    Why would people not like this? It’s just more choices and something for everyone.

  19. cgasucks

    Sep 27, 2017 at 12:01 pm

    Let’s face it…most guys want to play the same clubs the pros play on TV and most pros choose performance over luxury. The luxury golf club market will be there, but it will be nowhere as big as the regular mainstream performance club market.

    • Joey5Picks

      Sep 28, 2017 at 3:33 pm

      So how do you explain Nike have virtually no success in the club market, despite Tiger Woods playing their equipment for 2 decades?

      • JThunder

        Sep 28, 2017 at 4:25 pm

        The stuff that sells well in stores has very little to do with what the pros play. Ping G-series irons far outsell Titleist MBs, yet tour use is the very opposite.

  20. Golfgirlrobin

    Sep 27, 2017 at 11:40 am

    As with virtually all products, the tech in these ultra premium clubs will filter down to the more reasonably priced sets at some point, and every golfer will benefit.

    Every sport has equipment options that the average participant can’t afford but they don’t seem to take those offerings as a personal affront the way golfers do.

  21. Darrin

    Sep 27, 2017 at 10:55 am

    I have several friends who own these sort of clubs. They are the kind of people who have a lot of disposable income, they might wear Rolex watches, drive new BMW’s, live in nice houses located at private clubs etc. What exactly is the problem? Some people like premium products, if you can’t afford them or justify buying them then don’t buy them. Personally I can’t justify it, I have good clubs, I am happy with them, but I don’t look down on people for buying them if they can afford it.

    So I guess I don’t get the “like it or not” title to the thread. Should we protest premium products just because we can’t afford them? It’s a really weird mentality. I also think it’s cool to see people playing discounted classic clubs, because they like them and because they are affordable.

    To each his own.

    • Ray

      Sep 27, 2017 at 12:11 pm

      Agree with comments here. This is the same unfortunate mentality that prevails every aspect of daily life. Its called jealousy.

      Example: I know for a fact where i play locally that a good portion of the higher handicap golfers tend to disparage and isolate the accomplished members. The same mentaility applies to those buying $5,000 bag of clubs. Sad but true….

  22. Ripken08

    Sep 27, 2017 at 10:54 am

    Yes expensive equipment is here to stay, but not “ultra premium”. Think you got it all wrong as the performance isn’t there to warrant the price. This is just going to drive prices up and shy away people that mat want to take up the game.

  23. Ray

    Sep 27, 2017 at 10:54 am

    Im happy shooting low 70’s consistently with my Ping I3 blades, thanks anyway though 🙂

  24. moses

    Sep 27, 2017 at 10:36 am

    A lot of people thought Callaway was crazy charging $499 for the Great Big Bertha Driver back in the 90s. How did that work out?

    • BB

      Sep 27, 2017 at 10:43 pm

      Yeah…. and then they yanked out the stock graphite shaft and put in an exotic shaft because the stock shaft was floppy, soggy crap intended for sub-80mph swings.
      So the suckers had a $499 GBB driver head and a $150 fancy graphite shaft for a $650 driver….. and nothing changed until the OEMs decided to offer a choice of shafts when they realized what was happening.
      Stupid is as stupid does…. and nothing much has changed.

  25. Dat

    Sep 27, 2017 at 9:53 am

    Next up, golf equipment loans and credit lines.

    • TC

      Sep 27, 2017 at 1:17 pm

      Taylormade already started it:

      “Here’s how it works: After credit approval, a consumer can purchase drivers and irons such as the company’s current M1 driver and M2 irons on TaylorMade’s e-commerce site through a monthly payment plan on an 18- or 30-month billing cycle. The resulting interest would lead to the $500 M1 driver typically costing about an extra $100.”

      • Dat

        Sep 27, 2017 at 6:22 pm

        Next up, golf equipment credit defaults and government bailouts.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open betting preview

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As the Florida swing comes to an end, the PGA Tour makes its way to Houston to play the Texas Children’s Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course.

This will be the fourth year that Memorial Park Golf Course will serve as the tournament host. The event did not take place in 2023, but the course hosted the event in 2020, 2021 and 2022.

Memorial Park is a par-70 layout measuring 7,432 yards and features Bermudagrass greens. Historically, the main defense for the course has been thick rough along the fairways and tightly mown runoff areas around the greens. Memorial Park has a unique setup that features three Par 5’s and five Par 3’s.

The field will consist of 132 players, with the top 65 and ties making the cut. There are some big names making the trip to Houston, including Scottie Scheffler, Wyndham Clark, Tony Finau, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala.

Past Winners at Memorial Park

  • 2022: Tony Finau (-16)
  • 2021: Jason Kokrak (-10)
  • 2020: Carlos Ortiz (-13)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Memorial Park

Let’s take a look at several metrics for Memorial Park to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds:

Strokes Gained: Approach

Memorial Park is a pretty tough golf course. Golfers are penalized for missing greens and face some difficult up and downs to save par. Approach will be key.

Total Strokes Gained: Approach per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.30)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.26)
  3. Keith Mitchell (+0.97) 
  4. Tony Finau (+0.92)
  5. Jake Knapp (+0.84)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Memorial Park is a long golf course with rough that can be penal. Therefore, a combination of distance and accuracy is the best metric.

Total Strokes Gained: Off the Tee per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+0.94)
  2. Kevin Dougherty (+0.93)
  3. Cameron Champ (+0.86)
  4. Rafael Campos (+0.84)
  5. Si Woo Kim (+0.70)

Strokes Gained Putting: Bermudagrass + Fast

The Bermudagrass greens played fairly fast the past few years in Houston. Jason Kokrak gained 8.7 strokes putting on his way to victory in 2021 and Tony Finau gained in 7.8 in 2022.

Total Strokes Gained Putting (Bermudagrass) per round past 24 rounds (min. 8 rounds):

  1. Adam Svensson (+1.27)
  2. Harry Hall (+1.01)
  3. Martin Trainer (+0.94)
  4. Taylor Montgomery (+0.88)
  5. S.H. Kim (+0.86)

Strokes Gained: Around the Green

With firm and undulating putting surfaces, holding the green on approach shots may prove to be a challenge. Memorial Park has many tightly mowed runoff areas, so golfers will have challenging up-and-down’s around the greens. Carlos Ortiz gained 5.7 strokes around the green on the way to victory in 2020.

Total Strokes Gained: Around the Green per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Mackenzie Hughes (+0.76)
  2. S.H. Kim (+0.68)
  3. Scottie Scheffler (+0.64)
  4. Jorge Campillo (+0.62)
  5. Jason Day (+0.60)

Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult

Memorial Park is a long and difficult golf course. This statistic will incorporate players who’ve had success on these types of tracks in the past. 

Total Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.45)
  2. Ben Griffin (+1.75)
  3. Will Zalatoris (+1.73)
  4. Ben Taylor (+1.53)
  5. Tony Finau (+1.42)

Course History

Here are the players who have performed the most consistently at Memorial Park. 

Strokes Gained Total at Memorial Park past 12 rounds:

  1. Tyson Alexander (+3.65)
  2. Ben Taylor (+3.40)
  3. Tony Finau (+2.37)
  4. Joel Dahmen (+2.25)
  5. Patton Kizzire (+2.16)

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (24%) SG: OTT (24%); SG: Putting Bermudagrass/Fast (13%); SG: Long and Difficult (13%); SG: ARG (13%) and Course History (13%)

  1. Scottie Scheffler
  2. Wyndham Clark
  3. Tony Finau
  4. Joel Dahmen
  5. Stephan Jaeger 
  6. Aaron Rai
  7. Sahith Theegala
  8. Keith Mitchell 
  9. Jhonnatan Vegas
  10. Jason Day
  11. Kurt Kitayama
  12. Alex Noren
  13. Will Zalatoris
  14. Si Woo Kim
  15. Adam Long

2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open Picks

Will Zalatoris +2000 (Caesars)

Scottie Scheffler will undoubtedly be difficult to beat this week, so I’m starting my card with someone who I believe has the talent to beat him if he doesn’t have his best stuff.

Will Zalatoris missed the cut at the PLAYERS, but still managed to gain strokes on approach while doing so. In an unpredictable event with extreme variance, I don’t believe it would be wise to discount Zalatoris based on that performance. Prior to The PLAYERS, the 27-year-old finished T13, T2 and T4 in his previous three starts.

Zalatoris plays his best golf on long and difficult golf courses. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the category, but the eye test also tells a similar story. He’s contended at major championships and elevated events in the best of fields with tough scoring conditions.  The Texas resident should be a perfect fit at Memorial Park Golf Club.

Alex Noren +4500 (FanDuel)

Alex Noren has been quietly playing some of his best golf of the last half decade this season. The 41-year-old is coming off back-to-back top-20 finishes in Florida including a T9 at The PLAYERS in his most recent start.

In his past 24 rounds, Noren ranks 21st in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 30th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, 25th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses and 21st in Strokes Gained: Putting on fast Bermudagrass greens.

In addition to his strong recent play, the Swede also has played well at Memorial Park. In 2022, Noren finished T4 at the event, gaining 2.2 strokes off the tee and 7.0 strokes on approach for the week. In his two starts at the course, he’s gained an average of .6 strokes per round on the field, indicating he is comfortable on these greens.

Noren has been due for a win for what feels like an eternity, but Memorial Park may be the course that suits him well enough for him to finally get his elusive first PGA Tour victory.

Mackenzie Hughes +8000 (FanDuel)

Mackenzie Hughes found himself deep into contention at last week’s Valspar Championship before faltering late and finishing in a tie for 3rd place. While he would have loved to win the event, it’s hard to see the performance as anything other than an overwhelming positive sign for the Canadian.

Hughes has played great golf at Memorial Park in the past. He finished T7 in 2020, T29 in 2021 and T16 in 2022. The course fit seems to be quite strong for Hughes. He’s added distance off the tee in the past year or and ranks 8th in the field for apex height, which will be a key factor when hitting into Memorial Park’s elevated greens with steep run-off areas.

In his past 24 rounds, Hughes is the best player in the field in Strokes Gained: Around the Greens. The ability to scramble at this course will be extremely important. I believe Hughes can build off of his strong finish last week and contend once again to cement himself as a President’s Cup consideration.

Akshay Bhatia +8000 (FanDuel)

Akshay Bhatia played well last week at the Valspar and seemed to be in total control of his golf ball. He finished in a tie for 17th and shot an impressive -3 on a difficult Sunday. After struggling Thursday, Akshay shot 68-70-68 in his next three rounds.

Thus far, Bhatia has played better at easier courses, but his success at Copperhead may be due to his game maturing. The 22-year-old has enormous potential and the raw talent to be one of the best players in the world when he figures it all out.

Bhatia is a high upside play with superstar qualities and may just take the leap forward to the next stage of his career in the coming months.

Cameron Champ +12000 (FanDuel)

Cameron Champ is a player I often target in the outright betting market due to his “boom-or-bust” nature. It’s hard to think of a player in recent history with three PGA Tour wins who’s been as inconsistent as Champ has over the course of his career.

Despite the erratic play, Cam Champ simply knows how to win. He’s won in 2018, 2019 and 2021, so I feel he’s due for a win at some point this season. The former Texas A&M product should be comfortable in Texas and last week he showed us that his game is in a pretty decent spot.

Over his past 24 rounds, Champ ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 30th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses. Given his ability to spike at any given time, Memorial Park is a good golf course to target Champ on at triple digit odds.

Robert MacIntyre +12000 (FanDuel)

The challenge this week is finding players who can possibly beat Scottie Scheffler while also not dumping an enormous amount of money into an event that has a player at the top that looks extremely dangerous. Enter McIntyre, who’s another boom-or-bust type player who has the ceiling to compete with anyone when his game is clicking on all cylinders.

In his past 24 rounds, MacIntyre ranks 16th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 17th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and 10th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses.

MacIntyre’s PGA Tour season has gotten off to a slow start, but he finished T6 in Mexico, which is a course where players will hit driver on the majority of their tee shots, which is what we will see at Memorial Park. Texas can also get quite windy, which should suit MacIntyre. Last July, the Scot went toe to toe with Rory McIlroy at the Scottish Open before a narrow defeat. It would take a similar heroic effort to compete with Scheffler this year in Houston.

Ryan Moore +15000 (FanDuel)

Ryan Moore’s iron play has been absolutely unconscious over his past few starts. At The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field, he gained 6.1 strokes on approach and last week at Copperhead, he gained 9.0 strokes on approach.

It’s been a rough handful of years on Tour for the 41-year-old, but he is still a five-time winner on the PGA Tour who’s young enough for a career resurgence. Moore has chronic deterioration in a costovertebral joint that connects the rib to the spine, but has been getting more consistent of late, which is hopefully a sign that he is getting healthy.

Veterans have been contending in 2024 and I believe taking a flier on a proven Tour play who’s shown signs of life is a wise move at Memorial Park.

 

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Why the race to get better at golf might be doing more harm than good

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B.F. Skinner was one of the most important psychologists of the 20th century, developing the foundation of the development of reinforcement, and in doing so, creating the concept of behaviorism. In simple terms, this means that we are conditioned by our habits. In practical terms, it explains the divide between the few and far between elite instructors and college coaches.

To understand the application, let’s quickly review one of B.F. Skinner’s most important experiments; superstitions in the formation of behavior by pigeons. In this experiment, food was dispensed to pigeons at random intervals. Soon, according to Skinner, the pigeons began to associate whatever action they were doing at the time of the food being dispensed. According to Skinner, this conditioned that response and soon, they simply haphazardly repeated the action, failing to distinguish between cause and correlation (and in the meantime, looking really funny!).

Now, this is simply the best way to describe the actions of most every women’s college golf coach and too many instructors in America. They see something work, get positive feedback and then become conditioned to give the feedback, more and more, regardless of if it works (this is also why tips from your buddies never work!).

Go to a college event, particularly a women’s one, and you will see coaches running all over the place. Like the pigeons in the experiment, they have been conditioned into a codependent relationship with their players in which they believe their words and actions, can transform a round of golf. It is simply hilarious while being equally perturbing

In junior golf, it’s everywhere. Junior golf academies make a living selling parents that a hysterical coach and over-coaching are essential ingredients in your child’s success.

Let’s be clear, no one of any intellect has any real interest in golf — because it’s not that interesting. The people left, including most coaches and instructors, carve out a small fiefdom, usually on the corner of the range, where they use the illusion of competency to pray on people. In simple terms, they baffle people with the bullshit of pseudo-science that they can make you better, after just one more lesson.

The reality is that life is an impromptu game. The world of golf, business, and school have a message that the goal is being right. This, of course, is bad advice, being right in your own mind is easy, trying to push your ideas on others is hard. As a result, it is not surprising that the divorce rate among golf professionals and their instructors is 100 percent. The transfer rate among college players continues to soar, and too many courses have a guy peddling nefarious science to good people. In fact, we do at my course!

The question is, what impact does all this have on college-age and younger kids? At this point, we honestly don’t know. However, I am going to go out on a limb and say it isn’t good.

Soren Kierkegaard once quipped “I saw it for what it is, and I laughed.” The actions of most coaches and instructors in America are laughable. The problem is that I am not laughing because they are doing damage to kids, as well as driving good people away from this game.

The fact is that golfers don’t need more tips, secrets, or lessons. They need to be presented with a better understanding of the key elements of golf. With this understanding, they can then start to frame which information makes sense and what doesn’t. This will emancipate them and allow them to take charge of their own development.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Valspar Championship betting preview: Elite ballstrikers to thrive at Copperhead

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The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2024 Valspar Championship.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermudagrass greens overseeded with POA. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 16, 17 and 18 — also known as the “Snake Pit” — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.

The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. The field this week is solid and is a major improvement over last year’s field that felt the impact of players skipping due to a handful of “signature events” in a short span of time. 

Past Winners at Valspar Championship

  • 2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
  • 2022: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
  • 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
  • 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
  • 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
  • 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Copperhead

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can’t be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)

  1. Tony Finau (+.90)
  2. Nick Taylor (+.81)
  3. Justin Thomas (+.77)
  4. Greyson Sigg (+.69)
  5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+.67)

2. Good Drive %

The long hitters can be a bit limited here due to the tree-lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important, but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.

Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+91.3%) 
  2. Zach Johnson (+91.1%)
  3. Sam Ryder (+90.5%)
  4. Ryan Moore (+90.4%)
  5. Aaron Rai (+89.7%)

3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1.32)
  2. Keith Mitchell (+1.29)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.24)
  4. Cameron Young (+1.17) 
  5. Doug Ghim (+.95)

4. Bogey Avoidance

With the conditions likely to be difficult, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, oftentimes the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.

Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.

Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+9.0)
  2. Xander Schauffele (+9.3)
  3. Austin Cook (+9.7) 
  4. Chesson Hadley (+10.0)
  5. Greyson Sigg (+10.2)

5. Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions

Conditions will be tough this week at Copperhead. I am looking for golfers who can rise to the occasion if the course plays as difficult as it has in the past.

Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1,71) 
  2. Min Woo Lee (+1.39)
  3. Cameron Young (+1.27)
  4. Jordan Spieth (+1.08)
  5. Justin Suh (+.94)

6. Course History

That statistic will tell us which players have played well at Copperhead in the past.

Course History Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+3.75) 
  2. Sam Burns (+2.49)
  3. Davis Riley (+2.33)
  4. Matt NeSmith (+2.22)
  5. Jordan Spieth (+2.04)

The Valspar Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Good Drive % (15%), SG: BS (20%), Bogeys Avoided (13%), Course History (13%) Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions (12%).

  1. Xander Schauffele
  2. Doug Ghim
  3. Victor Perez
  4. Greyson Sigg
  5. Ryan Moore
  6. Tony Finau
  7. Justin Thomas
  8. Sam Ryder
  9. Sam Burns
  10. Lucas Glover

2024 Valspar Championship Picks

Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)

Justin Thomas will be disappointed with his finish at last week’s PLAYERS Championship, as the past champion missed the cut despite being in some decent form heading into the event. Despite the missed cut, JT hit the ball really well. In his two rounds, the two-time major champion led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach per round.

Thomas has been up and down this season. He’s missed the cut in two “signature events” but also has finishes of T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T6 at the Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am and T3 at the American Express. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in the field.

Thomas loves Copperhead. In his last three tries at the course, he’s finished T13, T3 and T10. Thomas would have loved to get a win at a big event early in the season, but avoidable mistakes and a balky putter have cost him dearly. I believe a trip to a course he loves in a field he should be able to capitalize on is the right recipe for JT to right the ship.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (FanDuel)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is playing spectacular golf in the 2024 season. He finished 2nd at the American Express, T20 at Pebble Beach and T24 at the Genesis Invitational before finishing T13 at last week’s PLAYERS Championship.

In his past 24 rounds, the South African ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 26th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. Bezuidenhout managed to work his way around TPC Sawgrass last week with minimal damage. He only made five bogeys in the entire week, which is a great sign heading into a difficult Copperhead this week.

Bezuidenhout is winless in his PGA Tour career, but certainly has the talent to win on Tour. His recent iron play tells me that this week could be a breakthrough for the 35-year-old who has eyes on the President’s Cup.

Doug Ghim +8000 (FanDuel)

Doug Ghim has finished in the top-16 of his past five starts. Most recently, Ghim finished T16 at The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field.

In his past 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 5th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. In terms of his fit for Copperhead, the 27-year-old ranks 12th in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions, making him a great fit for the course.

Ghim has yet to win on Tour, but at one point he was the top ranked Amateur golfer in the world and played in the 2017 Arnold Palmer Cup and 2017 Walker Cup. He then won the Ben Hogan award for the best male college golfer in 2018. He certainly has the talent, and there are signals aplenty that his talent in ready to take him to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour.

Sepp Straka +8000 (BetRivers)

Sepp Straka is a player who’s shown he has the type of game that can translate to a difficult Florida golf course. The former Presidents Cup participant won the 2022 Honda Classic in tough conditions and should thrive with a similar test at Copperhead.

It’s been a slow 2024 for Straka, but his performance last week at the PLAYERS Championship surely provides some optimism. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach as well as 1.88 strokes off the tee. The tee-to-green game Straka showed on a course with plenty of danger demonstrates that he can stay in control of his golf ball this week.

It’s possible that the strong performance last week was an outlier, but I’m willing to bet on a proven winner in a weaker field at a great number.

Victor Perez +12000 (FanDuel)

Victor Perez is no stranger to success in professional golf. The Frenchman has three DP World Tour wins including a Rolex Series event. He won the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, as well as the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which are some big events.

Perez earned his PGA Tour card this season and enters the week playing some fantastic golf. He finished in a tie for 16th in Florida at the Cognizant Classic and then tied for third in his most recent start at the Puerto Rico Open.

In his past 24 rounds in the field, Perez ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 1oth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Good Drive % and 15th in Bogey Avoidance.

Perez comes in as a perfect fit for Copperhead and offers serious value at triple-digit odds.

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