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Golf’s Young Guns Just DON’T CARE!

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After watching Justin Thomas win the PGA Championship on Sunday, it is 100 percent clear to me that the “young guns” today on Tour just do not care. They don’t care about anything or anyone, and this I tell you is a GOOD thing. So what do I mean? I’m glad you asked. Let me list a few of the things that are different about the PGA Tour’s most talented young guns.

Their Fellow Tour Players

The young guns on the PGA Tour don’t care very much how their fellow players are playing. Not only do they want to beat each other, but they want to do it by as many strokes as possible. They amaze me with how well they can keep the pedal to the metal and go as low as possible. What a refreshing way to play; the goal is to not only win, but to do so in dominant fashion. You gotta love it!

The History of the Game

Records are made to be broken, as they say, but for many years records stayed intact. It always seemed like for some reason they just weren’t broken. Case in point, John Cook won the FedEx Classic years ago and was around 23- or 24-under par for the first three rounds. The record on Tour was 27-under, and he finished around 25-under (and won the event).

Today’s young guns would have tried to get it to 30-under without blinking. I’m not saying Cook didn’t try to do so, but he did fall short on one of the easier courses on Tour at that time. I would bet a ton of money that his record would have been shattered if the same thing happened today.

Par or Bogeys 

I don’t think I ever heard that making par was a bad score; in fact, if you shot even par on Tour each week, you made a nice living and almost won a tournament or two. Nowadays on the PGA Tour, par gets you a weekend off. One of the things I like most about the young players of today is that they try to birdie each hole and rarely worry about an early bogey. Back in the day, you were fighting to get back to par. Now it’s all about going as low as you can go.

Fairways

Fairways hit was once an important category on Tour, and Calvin Peete and Fred Funk hit basically all of them. They had great careers. Now, it’s all about “how far” not “how straight.” The young guns bomb it, go find it, and hit it again. The older guys spent a lot of mental and emotional energy on missing fairways. Today, it’s one less thing to worry about, and I like that.

Social Media

I know that social media was not around years ago, but what a perfect way to learn about the private life of your favorite Tour player. Personally, I love hearing a PGA Tour player’s side of the story. I would have loved to hear the thoughts of Jack, Ben, and Arnie back in the day; wouldn’t you?

So basically, what I’m saying is that the younger players of today just play the game differently than my generation, and I absolutely love it. I love the fact that they are longer, shooting in the 50s more often, decimating par… and essentially cannot be stopped. The entire experience is just more fun to watch.

Thanks to the “young guns” for reinventing the game of golf.

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Tom F. Stickney II, is a specialist in Biomechanics for Golf, Physiology, and 3d Motion Analysis. He has a degree in Exercise and Fitness and has been a Director of Instruction for almost 30 years at resorts and clubs such as- The Four Seasons Punta Mita, BIGHORN Golf Club, The Club at Cordillera, The Promontory Club, and the Sandestin Golf and Beach Resort. His past and present instructional awards include the following: Golf Magazine Top 100 Teacher, Golf Digest Top 50 International Instructor, Golf Tips Top 25 Instructor, Best in State (Florida, Colorado, and California,) Top 20 Teachers Under 40, Best Young Teachers and many more. Tom is a Trackman University Master/Partner, a distinction held by less than 25 people in the world. Tom is TPI Certified- Level 1, Golf Level 2, Level 2- Power, and Level 2- Fitness and believes that you cannot reach your maximum potential as a player with out some focus on your physiology. You can reach him at [email protected] and he welcomes any questions you may have.

30 Comments

30 Comments

  1. Frankie

    Aug 21, 2017 at 1:40 pm

    The average PGA Tour winner birdies 1 of every 3 holes they play and they average around one bogey per round, this hasn’t changed at all…

    • stephenf

      Aug 22, 2017 at 3:32 am

      Yup. And with all the massive advantages in course conditioning, distance measuring, perfect greens, longer equipment, the all-exempt tour, and several other factors, the average score and typical Vardon Trophy-winning scoring average has gone down…what, a little over a shot in something like 50 years?

  2. Oli

    Aug 21, 2017 at 5:25 am

    Seeing this article get many more shanks is further restoring my faith in humanity.

    What a bizarre, coddling submissive cucked out beta male article. You’re better than this Stickney. Make you articles great again!

  3. Peter S

    Aug 21, 2017 at 12:29 am

    So Brooks hit it 65 yards shorter than his ‘big’ driver Weezel…..probably on a driving range rather than a 30 yard wide fairway!

    Golf on tour is a different game than it was pre Pro V1. The average amateur player hasn’t changed but the dynamics of straight or long in the Pro game are definitely biased towards long now! Doesn’t mean it is better though. All the great courses of the world are functionally irrelevant to the current crop. No strategy, just smash it and chase it.

    You dropped the ball USGA/R&A

  4. Gary Cook

    Aug 20, 2017 at 8:28 pm

    When you and your family are financially secure, it is easy to go for broke and fire at every pin because you are not worried about missing the cut, feeding your family, and paying college tuition for your future kids. This is due to large endorsement contacts and corporate outing paydays the the young “bucks” today earn versus “back then”.

    Nothing against this advantage.

    The PGA pros of “the early days” did not start to win majors until their early thirties, I believe, because by then they had made enough cuts, a few wins, and their family could survive if they missed a few cuts. Financially secure.

    Thoughts?

    • George

      Aug 21, 2017 at 1:00 pm

      Besides a few pro golfers, Most of these guys come from wealthier families. I dont think money has ever been a issue for most of them

  5. Paul K

    Aug 20, 2017 at 6:36 pm

    This is great, everyone clamoring on about how all these guys care about is endorsement this and the new equipment that. First of all, the beloved Arnold Palmer was the first to break into the endorsement game and make big money off of selling his ability to play golf. Regardless of what drives these young guys to play well, they still play well. They are still driven to play better. And can we please stop with the whole “if Jack and Arnie and Lee and Player had this equipment…” my gosh give it a rest. It’s a damn level playing field out there. No matter the shape of the golf course or the equipment available to the players, it’s a level playing field. Whether it’s 1970 or 2017, it’s a level playing field. It’s all relative and today’s top golfers have much greater competition from much earlier on in their careers, much more pressure and scrutiny from the media and fans, and an incredible amount of pressure from the companies who endorse them. It’s an entirely different world and game now, so they have to play it differenty. Jack didn’t have a Morning Drive show dissecting his every move from the previous tournament from Monday-Wednesday on why he didn’t win, or why his swing doesn’t work, or what he needs to changed or where he failed. These guys are under a microscope every step of the way and it’s great to see them take this sport by the balls and succeed.

  6. Weezel

    Aug 20, 2017 at 4:42 pm

    And to everyone hear saying the “equipment” is difference. Let’s all take a look in the mirror and admit that the advances in equipment has benefited us, the regular golfer, more than it has the professionals. I saw Brooks Koepka hit a persimmon driver 305+ the other day. Holding the pros to standards of the past while we reap the new rewards is very hypocritical.

  7. Weezel

    Aug 20, 2017 at 4:36 pm

    This is such a great take and one that has shown to be controversial to a lot of people. I think I bridge that gap between the younger generation and the old school, and this is refreshing to read. Just because things were done one way before doesn’t mean it has to stay like that. We are not destroying the game of golf, rather we are making it our own. Much the same way Jack and Arnie did before. Because players hang out with each other and are friends off the course does not at all mean that they do not care about winning. We all play with our friends every weekend and when there is something on the line, we want to win no matter what. I enjoy golf more when playing with my good friends, having some drinks and blasting some music from the cart. Talking in my swing is the least of my concerns as well. Maybe if we all lightened up a little a show how golf can bring people together we can help spread the goodness of the game. Cheers!

  8. Sam

    Aug 20, 2017 at 3:10 pm

    In a decade we’re going to see the launch monitor generation. I expect to see half the field look like ball striking robots

  9. Patricknorm

    Aug 20, 2017 at 1:15 pm

    Tom you nailed it perfectly. I’m a 7.8 index (63 years old) and yesterday I played a scramble tournament with three young guns 23,24, 22 years. ( indexes 2.5, 4.5 and 15.5). We shot 11 under ( par 72) on a very tough course( 132slope) . Two players could bomb their drives 330 when needed. To keep things rational we had to rotate a yellow ball amongst ourselves so that if we lost this ball we had to ante up $20.00. All three of these young players played without fear but they were always wanting to make birdies or eagles.
    The attitude of young people is to emulate the Rickie Fowlers, Rory Mcilroys, Dustin Johnsons, Justin Thomas, Jordan Speiths, etc. Their yardages are very similar off the tee or on approach shots.
    At our course the 18th is an uphill par 4 440 yards. Two of our youngest players bombed their drives over 330 yards. We used gps to verify distances. My drives go about on average 230 yards. I’ve never had an approach that close ever. Like I said, Tom hit the nail squarely in the head. Yes the equipment they used is better than we played with 30 years ago, but long is long.

  10. Peter S

    Aug 20, 2017 at 6:57 am

    So Tom,
    Tell me again how…Bomb it anywhere, chase it and gouge it toward the green is good? Strategy disappears! The equipment fiasco from the USGA has created these types of players! Get them on firm and fast running conditions with wind…and they have no idea how to play! The US Open would have shown that..but then the wind didn’t blow! The average PGA tour event is as boring as ****.

  11. Jacked_Loft

    Aug 20, 2017 at 4:17 am

    It isn’t “not caring”, but more the younger players have been through a more rigorous seeding. Harder competition early on (already from the junior level and then into college) seasons the young players much quicker than previous generations. Don’t believe me? Just check out how many scratch players were in college when Jack was turning pro. The young guns of today have to play more aggressively or they just won’t win. The talent is just that deep today.

  12. Heich

    Aug 20, 2017 at 2:59 am

    I enjoy golf anyway, regardless of when or who or how much. But, yeah these kids seem like they don’t care that much? You think? Well it is easier for them to make good money, and real good money. So that does help to help them relax a bit, that even if they don’t make it into the top 10 or 20 every week to make decent wages like they had to back in the day – they can still make decent money just by showing up, so it may seem like they’re just course-gouging sometimes – but then again, some of them can flat out play and make even more money. And that’s just how it is in society everywhere now, isn’t it? You can be smart and make real stupid money too.

  13. Lou

    Aug 19, 2017 at 11:52 pm

    Can we stop calling them “Young Guns”? Emilio Estevez, Charlie Sheen, Kiefer Sutherland, Lou Diamond Phillips, and Dermont Mulroney were Young Guns. The guys on the PGA tour who are under 30 and win a lot (or come kinda close every once in a while, in the case of Dick Fowler) are just, well, guys on the PGA tour who are under 30 and win a lot.

    • HK

      Aug 20, 2017 at 11:22 am

      facts don’t change their ages. they are young no matter the number of wins. you don’t call Kiefer Sutherland a young gun cuz he’s not young any more. pro’ly our ‘young guns’ here don’t even know who KS is… so i have no problem calling young guns young guns.

      • Lou

        Aug 20, 2017 at 8:23 pm

        You realize I was referencing the cinematic masterpiece “Young Guns,” right? I miss 80’s movies.

  14. R

    Aug 19, 2017 at 10:46 pm

    Might be the BIGGEST SHANK EVER.
    Hogan Snead Nelson Casper Player Nicklaus
    Palmer Watson Miller Floyd Wieskoph Watkins
    Tiger Norman Els Couples Pavin Crenshaw Love III
    Seve Phil and on and on. They needed to win
    and made sure they could win.
    Not much money as there is now. Courses were
    Never any where near as in good a shape as now.
    Not to mention the equipment out there now.
    These New young Guys have great talent and are fun to watch. But they have just about everything
    free now. So much money thrown at them.
    And yes they want to beat the pants off of everyone.
    But to say the guys of yesterday didn’t is BS.
    Tiger wanted to beat you by 20 and not just 1.
    I would love to see these guys from yesterday’s respond.

    • Heich

      Aug 20, 2017 at 2:57 am

      Yup. Lee Trevino tells about everything every time he’s on TV these days, especially on the Feherty show, he spills the beans.

  15. Barry

    Aug 19, 2017 at 9:36 pm

    Sure, but Rickie Fowler is great at playing good enough to get on tv, but he’s not a winner like Spieth or Thomas

  16. Rwj

    Aug 19, 2017 at 7:58 pm

    They don’t have to worry about winning to survive. They are clearing millions without winning. Wins are just icing to help pay to keep the models around

  17. iShankEveryArticle

    Aug 19, 2017 at 7:39 pm

    Be careful Tom, don’t want to upset all the old fogies on this website.

    • stephenf

      Aug 22, 2017 at 3:34 am

      Right. Because anybody who comes back with a substantive argument that conclusively disproves this nonsense is an old fogey.

      The problem is this kind of adolescent thinking in the first place. Yes, you.

  18. Tom F. Stickney II

    Aug 19, 2017 at 7:15 pm

    Theses kids rock! I love that they just say you can’t beat me and believe it 100%!

    • Todd

      Aug 19, 2017 at 9:16 pm

      That’s just macho trash talk. What they fear is the golf course and their ability to beat the layout. Every pro is filled with doubts and questions about how to solve the golf course problems.

  19. Brooky

    Aug 19, 2017 at 6:39 pm

    Eh, I’m not buying this. To play any professional sport at an elite level, you have to have a relentless drive to perform your personal best every time you compete. This hasn’t changed. Golfers have always tried card the lowest score possible.

    Sports evolve with time and so does equipment. Young golfers today practice much more than golfers used to and there have been some incredible technological advances in golf equipment over the last couple decades. This is why current players are posting some of the lowest scores ever, not because they “don’t care.”

    • AlphaGolfer

      Aug 19, 2017 at 8:06 pm

      Not only the equipment but also the bio-mechanic sciences that explains the golf swing in factual detail. We have instrumentation not only to measure ball flight but also measure body mechanics for optimal performance. And add to that the mental discipline in sports psychology. There is big $$$£££¥¥¥ for the winners. Just ask Tiger.

  20. rh30

    Aug 19, 2017 at 3:34 pm

    As I’m reading this, Davis Love III is leading the tour event this week. Hmmmm.

  21. Clark G

    Aug 19, 2017 at 3:19 pm

    How about this — the young guns are driven by equipment endorsement incentives and the lower they go the more money they receive from their sponsoring OEM.
    What clubs did they win with is the usual comment here. It’s not the player, it’s the winning clubs that interest the buying fans. Or, what wins on Sunday sells on Monday and that’s proven too.

  22. Andy c

    Aug 19, 2017 at 2:28 pm

    But how do you know they don’t care?…….. it’s just your opinion hashed as fact really isn’t it?

    What a load of old codswallop this article is……

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open betting preview

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As the Florida swing comes to an end, the PGA Tour makes its way to Houston to play the Texas Children’s Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course.

This will be the fourth year that Memorial Park Golf Course will serve as the tournament host. The event did not take place in 2023, but the course hosted the event in 2020, 2021 and 2022.

Memorial Park is a par-70 layout measuring 7,432 yards and features Bermudagrass greens. Historically, the main defense for the course has been thick rough along the fairways and tightly mown runoff areas around the greens. Memorial Park has a unique setup that features three Par 5’s and five Par 3’s.

The field will consist of 132 players, with the top 65 and ties making the cut. There are some big names making the trip to Houston, including Scottie Scheffler, Wyndham Clark, Tony Finau, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala.

Past Winners at Memorial Park

  • 2022: Tony Finau (-16)
  • 2021: Jason Kokrak (-10)
  • 2020: Carlos Ortiz (-13)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Memorial Park

Let’s take a look at several metrics for Memorial Park to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds:

Strokes Gained: Approach

Memorial Park is a pretty tough golf course. Golfers are penalized for missing greens and face some difficult up and downs to save par. Approach will be key.

Total Strokes Gained: Approach per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.30)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.26)
  3. Keith Mitchell (+0.97) 
  4. Tony Finau (+0.92)
  5. Jake Knapp (+0.84)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Memorial Park is a long golf course with rough that can be penal. Therefore, a combination of distance and accuracy is the best metric.

Total Strokes Gained: Off the Tee per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+0.94)
  2. Kevin Dougherty (+0.93)
  3. Cameron Champ (+0.86)
  4. Rafael Campos (+0.84)
  5. Si Woo Kim (+0.70)

Strokes Gained Putting: Bermudagrass + Fast

The Bermudagrass greens played fairly fast the past few years in Houston. Jason Kokrak gained 8.7 strokes putting on his way to victory in 2021 and Tony Finau gained in 7.8 in 2022.

Total Strokes Gained Putting (Bermudagrass) per round past 24 rounds (min. 8 rounds):

  1. Adam Svensson (+1.27)
  2. Harry Hall (+1.01)
  3. Martin Trainer (+0.94)
  4. Taylor Montgomery (+0.88)
  5. S.H. Kim (+0.86)

Strokes Gained: Around the Green

With firm and undulating putting surfaces, holding the green on approach shots may prove to be a challenge. Memorial Park has many tightly mowed runoff areas, so golfers will have challenging up-and-down’s around the greens. Carlos Ortiz gained 5.7 strokes around the green on the way to victory in 2020.

Total Strokes Gained: Around the Green per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Mackenzie Hughes (+0.76)
  2. S.H. Kim (+0.68)
  3. Scottie Scheffler (+0.64)
  4. Jorge Campillo (+0.62)
  5. Jason Day (+0.60)

Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult

Memorial Park is a long and difficult golf course. This statistic will incorporate players who’ve had success on these types of tracks in the past. 

Total Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.45)
  2. Ben Griffin (+1.75)
  3. Will Zalatoris (+1.73)
  4. Ben Taylor (+1.53)
  5. Tony Finau (+1.42)

Course History

Here are the players who have performed the most consistently at Memorial Park. 

Strokes Gained Total at Memorial Park past 12 rounds:

  1. Tyson Alexander (+3.65)
  2. Ben Taylor (+3.40)
  3. Tony Finau (+2.37)
  4. Joel Dahmen (+2.25)
  5. Patton Kizzire (+2.16)

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (24%) SG: OTT (24%); SG: Putting Bermudagrass/Fast (13%); SG: Long and Difficult (13%); SG: ARG (13%) and Course History (13%)

  1. Scottie Scheffler
  2. Wyndham Clark
  3. Tony Finau
  4. Joel Dahmen
  5. Stephan Jaeger 
  6. Aaron Rai
  7. Sahith Theegala
  8. Keith Mitchell 
  9. Jhonnatan Vegas
  10. Jason Day
  11. Kurt Kitayama
  12. Alex Noren
  13. Will Zalatoris
  14. Si Woo Kim
  15. Adam Long

2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open Picks

Will Zalatoris +2000 (Caesars)

Scottie Scheffler will undoubtedly be difficult to beat this week, so I’m starting my card with someone who I believe has the talent to beat him if he doesn’t have his best stuff.

Will Zalatoris missed the cut at the PLAYERS, but still managed to gain strokes on approach while doing so. In an unpredictable event with extreme variance, I don’t believe it would be wise to discount Zalatoris based on that performance. Prior to The PLAYERS, the 27-year-old finished T13, T2 and T4 in his previous three starts.

Zalatoris plays his best golf on long and difficult golf courses. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the category, but the eye test also tells a similar story. He’s contended at major championships and elevated events in the best of fields with tough scoring conditions.  The Texas resident should be a perfect fit at Memorial Park Golf Club.

Alex Noren +4500 (FanDuel)

Alex Noren has been quietly playing some of his best golf of the last half decade this season. The 41-year-old is coming off back-to-back top-20 finishes in Florida including a T9 at The PLAYERS in his most recent start.

In his past 24 rounds, Noren ranks 21st in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 30th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, 25th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses and 21st in Strokes Gained: Putting on fast Bermudagrass greens.

In addition to his strong recent play, the Swede also has played well at Memorial Park. In 2022, Noren finished T4 at the event, gaining 2.2 strokes off the tee and 7.0 strokes on approach for the week. In his two starts at the course, he’s gained an average of .6 strokes per round on the field, indicating he is comfortable on these greens.

Noren has been due for a win for what feels like an eternity, but Memorial Park may be the course that suits him well enough for him to finally get his elusive first PGA Tour victory.

Mackenzie Hughes +8000 (FanDuel)

Mackenzie Hughes found himself deep into contention at last week’s Valspar Championship before faltering late and finishing in a tie for 3rd place. While he would have loved to win the event, it’s hard to see the performance as anything other than an overwhelming positive sign for the Canadian.

Hughes has played great golf at Memorial Park in the past. He finished T7 in 2020, T29 in 2021 and T16 in 2022. The course fit seems to be quite strong for Hughes. He’s added distance off the tee in the past year or and ranks 8th in the field for apex height, which will be a key factor when hitting into Memorial Park’s elevated greens with steep run-off areas.

In his past 24 rounds, Hughes is the best player in the field in Strokes Gained: Around the Greens. The ability to scramble at this course will be extremely important. I believe Hughes can build off of his strong finish last week and contend once again to cement himself as a President’s Cup consideration.

Akshay Bhatia +8000 (FanDuel)

Akshay Bhatia played well last week at the Valspar and seemed to be in total control of his golf ball. He finished in a tie for 17th and shot an impressive -3 on a difficult Sunday. After struggling Thursday, Akshay shot 68-70-68 in his next three rounds.

Thus far, Bhatia has played better at easier courses, but his success at Copperhead may be due to his game maturing. The 22-year-old has enormous potential and the raw talent to be one of the best players in the world when he figures it all out.

Bhatia is a high upside play with superstar qualities and may just take the leap forward to the next stage of his career in the coming months.

Cameron Champ +12000 (FanDuel)

Cameron Champ is a player I often target in the outright betting market due to his “boom-or-bust” nature. It’s hard to think of a player in recent history with three PGA Tour wins who’s been as inconsistent as Champ has over the course of his career.

Despite the erratic play, Cam Champ simply knows how to win. He’s won in 2018, 2019 and 2021, so I feel he’s due for a win at some point this season. The former Texas A&M product should be comfortable in Texas and last week he showed us that his game is in a pretty decent spot.

Over his past 24 rounds, Champ ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 30th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses. Given his ability to spike at any given time, Memorial Park is a good golf course to target Champ on at triple digit odds.

Robert MacIntyre +12000 (FanDuel)

The challenge this week is finding players who can possibly beat Scottie Scheffler while also not dumping an enormous amount of money into an event that has a player at the top that looks extremely dangerous. Enter McIntyre, who’s another boom-or-bust type player who has the ceiling to compete with anyone when his game is clicking on all cylinders.

In his past 24 rounds, MacIntyre ranks 16th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 17th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and 10th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses.

MacIntyre’s PGA Tour season has gotten off to a slow start, but he finished T6 in Mexico, which is a course where players will hit driver on the majority of their tee shots, which is what we will see at Memorial Park. Texas can also get quite windy, which should suit MacIntyre. Last July, the Scot went toe to toe with Rory McIlroy at the Scottish Open before a narrow defeat. It would take a similar heroic effort to compete with Scheffler this year in Houston.

Ryan Moore +15000 (FanDuel)

Ryan Moore’s iron play has been absolutely unconscious over his past few starts. At The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field, he gained 6.1 strokes on approach and last week at Copperhead, he gained 9.0 strokes on approach.

It’s been a rough handful of years on Tour for the 41-year-old, but he is still a five-time winner on the PGA Tour who’s young enough for a career resurgence. Moore has chronic deterioration in a costovertebral joint that connects the rib to the spine, but has been getting more consistent of late, which is hopefully a sign that he is getting healthy.

Veterans have been contending in 2024 and I believe taking a flier on a proven Tour play who’s shown signs of life is a wise move at Memorial Park.

 

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Why the race to get better at golf might be doing more harm than good

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B.F. Skinner was one of the most important psychologists of the 20th century, developing the foundation of the development of reinforcement, and in doing so, creating the concept of behaviorism. In simple terms, this means that we are conditioned by our habits. In practical terms, it explains the divide between the few and far between elite instructors and college coaches.

To understand the application, let’s quickly review one of B.F. Skinner’s most important experiments; superstitions in the formation of behavior by pigeons. In this experiment, food was dispensed to pigeons at random intervals. Soon, according to Skinner, the pigeons began to associate whatever action they were doing at the time of the food being dispensed. According to Skinner, this conditioned that response and soon, they simply haphazardly repeated the action, failing to distinguish between cause and correlation (and in the meantime, looking really funny!).

Now, this is simply the best way to describe the actions of most every women’s college golf coach and too many instructors in America. They see something work, get positive feedback and then become conditioned to give the feedback, more and more, regardless of if it works (this is also why tips from your buddies never work!).

Go to a college event, particularly a women’s one, and you will see coaches running all over the place. Like the pigeons in the experiment, they have been conditioned into a codependent relationship with their players in which they believe their words and actions, can transform a round of golf. It is simply hilarious while being equally perturbing

In junior golf, it’s everywhere. Junior golf academies make a living selling parents that a hysterical coach and over-coaching are essential ingredients in your child’s success.

Let’s be clear, no one of any intellect has any real interest in golf — because it’s not that interesting. The people left, including most coaches and instructors, carve out a small fiefdom, usually on the corner of the range, where they use the illusion of competency to pray on people. In simple terms, they baffle people with the bullshit of pseudo-science that they can make you better, after just one more lesson.

The reality is that life is an impromptu game. The world of golf, business, and school have a message that the goal is being right. This, of course, is bad advice, being right in your own mind is easy, trying to push your ideas on others is hard. As a result, it is not surprising that the divorce rate among golf professionals and their instructors is 100 percent. The transfer rate among college players continues to soar, and too many courses have a guy peddling nefarious science to good people. In fact, we do at my course!

The question is, what impact does all this have on college-age and younger kids? At this point, we honestly don’t know. However, I am going to go out on a limb and say it isn’t good.

Soren Kierkegaard once quipped “I saw it for what it is, and I laughed.” The actions of most coaches and instructors in America are laughable. The problem is that I am not laughing because they are doing damage to kids, as well as driving good people away from this game.

The fact is that golfers don’t need more tips, secrets, or lessons. They need to be presented with a better understanding of the key elements of golf. With this understanding, they can then start to frame which information makes sense and what doesn’t. This will emancipate them and allow them to take charge of their own development.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Valspar Championship betting preview: Elite ballstrikers to thrive at Copperhead

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The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2024 Valspar Championship.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermudagrass greens overseeded with POA. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 16, 17 and 18 — also known as the “Snake Pit” — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.

The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. The field this week is solid and is a major improvement over last year’s field that felt the impact of players skipping due to a handful of “signature events” in a short span of time. 

Past Winners at Valspar Championship

  • 2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
  • 2022: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
  • 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
  • 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
  • 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
  • 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Copperhead

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can’t be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)

  1. Tony Finau (+.90)
  2. Nick Taylor (+.81)
  3. Justin Thomas (+.77)
  4. Greyson Sigg (+.69)
  5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+.67)

2. Good Drive %

The long hitters can be a bit limited here due to the tree-lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important, but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.

Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+91.3%) 
  2. Zach Johnson (+91.1%)
  3. Sam Ryder (+90.5%)
  4. Ryan Moore (+90.4%)
  5. Aaron Rai (+89.7%)

3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1.32)
  2. Keith Mitchell (+1.29)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.24)
  4. Cameron Young (+1.17) 
  5. Doug Ghim (+.95)

4. Bogey Avoidance

With the conditions likely to be difficult, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, oftentimes the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.

Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.

Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+9.0)
  2. Xander Schauffele (+9.3)
  3. Austin Cook (+9.7) 
  4. Chesson Hadley (+10.0)
  5. Greyson Sigg (+10.2)

5. Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions

Conditions will be tough this week at Copperhead. I am looking for golfers who can rise to the occasion if the course plays as difficult as it has in the past.

Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1,71) 
  2. Min Woo Lee (+1.39)
  3. Cameron Young (+1.27)
  4. Jordan Spieth (+1.08)
  5. Justin Suh (+.94)

6. Course History

That statistic will tell us which players have played well at Copperhead in the past.

Course History Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+3.75) 
  2. Sam Burns (+2.49)
  3. Davis Riley (+2.33)
  4. Matt NeSmith (+2.22)
  5. Jordan Spieth (+2.04)

The Valspar Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Good Drive % (15%), SG: BS (20%), Bogeys Avoided (13%), Course History (13%) Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions (12%).

  1. Xander Schauffele
  2. Doug Ghim
  3. Victor Perez
  4. Greyson Sigg
  5. Ryan Moore
  6. Tony Finau
  7. Justin Thomas
  8. Sam Ryder
  9. Sam Burns
  10. Lucas Glover

2024 Valspar Championship Picks

Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)

Justin Thomas will be disappointed with his finish at last week’s PLAYERS Championship, as the past champion missed the cut despite being in some decent form heading into the event. Despite the missed cut, JT hit the ball really well. In his two rounds, the two-time major champion led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach per round.

Thomas has been up and down this season. He’s missed the cut in two “signature events” but also has finishes of T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T6 at the Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am and T3 at the American Express. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in the field.

Thomas loves Copperhead. In his last three tries at the course, he’s finished T13, T3 and T10. Thomas would have loved to get a win at a big event early in the season, but avoidable mistakes and a balky putter have cost him dearly. I believe a trip to a course he loves in a field he should be able to capitalize on is the right recipe for JT to right the ship.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (FanDuel)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is playing spectacular golf in the 2024 season. He finished 2nd at the American Express, T20 at Pebble Beach and T24 at the Genesis Invitational before finishing T13 at last week’s PLAYERS Championship.

In his past 24 rounds, the South African ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 26th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. Bezuidenhout managed to work his way around TPC Sawgrass last week with minimal damage. He only made five bogeys in the entire week, which is a great sign heading into a difficult Copperhead this week.

Bezuidenhout is winless in his PGA Tour career, but certainly has the talent to win on Tour. His recent iron play tells me that this week could be a breakthrough for the 35-year-old who has eyes on the President’s Cup.

Doug Ghim +8000 (FanDuel)

Doug Ghim has finished in the top-16 of his past five starts. Most recently, Ghim finished T16 at The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field.

In his past 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 5th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. In terms of his fit for Copperhead, the 27-year-old ranks 12th in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions, making him a great fit for the course.

Ghim has yet to win on Tour, but at one point he was the top ranked Amateur golfer in the world and played in the 2017 Arnold Palmer Cup and 2017 Walker Cup. He then won the Ben Hogan award for the best male college golfer in 2018. He certainly has the talent, and there are signals aplenty that his talent in ready to take him to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour.

Sepp Straka +8000 (BetRivers)

Sepp Straka is a player who’s shown he has the type of game that can translate to a difficult Florida golf course. The former Presidents Cup participant won the 2022 Honda Classic in tough conditions and should thrive with a similar test at Copperhead.

It’s been a slow 2024 for Straka, but his performance last week at the PLAYERS Championship surely provides some optimism. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach as well as 1.88 strokes off the tee. The tee-to-green game Straka showed on a course with plenty of danger demonstrates that he can stay in control of his golf ball this week.

It’s possible that the strong performance last week was an outlier, but I’m willing to bet on a proven winner in a weaker field at a great number.

Victor Perez +12000 (FanDuel)

Victor Perez is no stranger to success in professional golf. The Frenchman has three DP World Tour wins including a Rolex Series event. He won the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, as well as the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which are some big events.

Perez earned his PGA Tour card this season and enters the week playing some fantastic golf. He finished in a tie for 16th in Florida at the Cognizant Classic and then tied for third in his most recent start at the Puerto Rico Open.

In his past 24 rounds in the field, Perez ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 1oth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Good Drive % and 15th in Bogey Avoidance.

Perez comes in as a perfect fit for Copperhead and offers serious value at triple-digit odds.

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