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The 5 Biggest Mistakes in Club Fitting

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Throughout my golf career, I have been fortunate to spend time with some of the best club fitters in the world. Before I became a full-time golf instructor, I was a Tour Rep for TrackMan, which had me traveling around the U.S. and beyond to top club fitters and golf professionals. Through that experience, combined with my own teaching and fitting background, I have come to understand the many mistakes that can be made during a club fitting.

This article is not meant as a criticism toward any club fitter or golf professional. I simply want to pass on what I’ve learned to GolfWRXers and the greater golf community to do my part to make sure golfers don’t end up with a set of clubs that are a detriment to their games (and their wallets). These are the 5 biggest mistakes in club fitting.

1. Using Face Tape

Face tape has been used in club fitting for a long time. It is extremely helpful in showing us where on the club face a golf ball was struck, and it helps us understand more about why the ball is flying the way it does. This is the only way I would ever recommend using tape on the face of a golf club.

If you are a club fitter or a golf professional trying to protect your golf club during a fitting, it’s fine to put tape on the top or bottom of a wood to protect it from sole wear or potential sky marks. It’s a grave mistake to use tape on the face when you’re evaluating ball flight and/or launch monitor numbers, however, and you can see why in the example below.

Ghost tape

With the tape on his driver club face, this golfer had about 700 more rpm of spin and 14 yards less total distance. If you are a golf professional and you want to dial in your students, DO NOT use face tape when you’re evaluating ball flight. A good alternative to face tape is Dr. Scholls foot spray. It may sound a little strange, but it will show where the ball was struck and have little to no effect on the ball flight.

2. Assuming Optimal Launch and Spin are Uniform

This is something I hear quite a bit, even from golf equipment manufacturers. Not too long ago, many in the golf industry were in agreement that the optimal launch and spin for any golfer with a driver for maximum distance was a 17-degree launch angle with 1700 rpm of spin. This might be true in a bubble, but we as humans have thousands of different combinations of swings and speeds, making this guideline almost completely useless. Take a look at some numbers for two very different golfers below: Player A and Player B. I want you to consider what you think good launch and spin should be for both.

Player A

Player A

Player B

Player b

In this scenario, I think most would assume that Player A (a low-speed player) would need significantly more spin to be optimal than Player B (a high-speed player). The rule of thumb is that the slower a golfer swings, the more spin they need to keep the ball in the air for maximum distance. Using that guideline, however, you wouldn’t optimize either golfer.

In club fittings, everything hinges on the specific needs of the golfer in front of you. The three main player inputs that determine optimal launch and spin are:

  1. Club Head Speed
  2. Attack Angle
  3. Desired Trajectory

In choosing a desired trajectory, a golfer has three options. They can opt for a high trajectory for maximum carry distance, a low trajectory for the most roll out (and sometimes the most total distance, depending on the conditions of the courses they play), or a combination that balances the two (carry and total). For simplicity, let’s assume both of these golfers want to optimize for the combination of carry and total. Now, let’s take a look at the optimization chart for each player below.

Player A Optimized

LandauPlayer B Optimized

karan

As it turns out, Player B with 135 mph of club head speed needs more spin than Player A with 76 mph of club head speed. It goes against my instincts, too, but it’s true. The reason is the Attack Angle for each player.

  • Player A is hitting 5-degrees up on the ball, so he is already launching the ball into the air. For that reason, he doesn’t need as much spin for optimal distance.
  • Player B is hitting 3-degrees down on the ball, so he needs more more loft and more spin to keep the ball in the air for optimal distance.

3. Only Looking at Distance Gained

This is the biggest and most common mistake I see during fittings. Both golfers and fitters are guilty of focusing on the one shot that travels 8-10 yards further during a fitting, and because it has the most distance potential, they assume that it’s the best club. I will never tell anyone that distance isn’t important, but I believe that too much emphasis has been placed on it in both driver and iron fittings.

Dispersion is huge for playability, and I suggest fitters take the time to allow golfers to hit plenty of shots in fittings. This allows them to not only optimize for distance, but also for dispersion.

Golf equipment manufacturers have given us fantastic equipment that can makes it very easy to adjust ball flight. The ability we have to tweak weighting, face angle, and lie angle can be vital to our ability to create a tighter dispersion. If you’re fitting outside, however, I encourage all fitters to go beyond the flat, perfect lies of the driving range. Have golfers hit shots from different lies and locations, and get them out on the course if you can. By testing clubs for the shots golfers are most likely to encounter during a normal round of play, you’re going to gain a much better understanding of what club will actually perform best for them.

Graham

Above are the Trackman numbers for a highly skilled junior golfer during a driver fitting. He was carrying shots about 245 yards with a total distance of 260 yards, and the ball was flying very straight. In the fitting, we were able to narrow down his best options to two drivers. With one of them, he cracked the longest shot he hit all day: 251.5 yards in the air, rolling out to almost 280 yards.

With that driver, he also recorded his fastest ball speed and best total distance by about 8 yards. When we look at the full picture, however, we will see it was not the best driver for him.

graham 2

Driver #2 (white) is absolutely the most consistent in length and dispersion despite the fact that he hit Driver #1 (yellow) farther one time. Most golfers only think of their bad shots as “outliers,” when in fact they should often be discounting their very best shot with a club in the cases when the majority of their shots with the club are off-target.

4. Using a Lie Board

Impact

Lie boards are a thing of the past. There, I said it. Basing any loft or lie adjustments purely off a lie board is completely useless. On any well struck golf shot, the golf ball has already left the golf club before any significant ground and club interaction has occurred. This means the marks on the bottom of the club tells us next to nothing.

Lie Angle

Above is a great picture from a friend of mine, Errol Helling. He’s the owner of Profectus Golf in Nashville, Tennessee. The photo shows the difference in where two golf clubs point at address: one at 3-degrees upright (pointing left) and one at 2-degrees flat (pointing right). It’s important to remember that the photo shows “static loft.” We are most interested in “dynamic loft” and the face angle at impact because that’s what effects ball flight. Just because we have an iron that is orientated a direction at setup does not mean it will point in the same direction at impact.

5. Looking at Divot Direction and Depth

Recently, this has been a frequent topic of discussion in the golf world. I hate to disagree with one of the greats of our game, Ben Hogan, but the secret is not in the dirt. I can’t say that Hogan was wrong, as his thoughts on the golf swing worked very well for him, but we now know that divot direction and divot depth tell us very little about ball flight. You can hit any kind of golf shot with every kind of divot, so why assume that the divot is going to tell us anything valuable?

Below are some pictures of shots I hit on the range. The divot direction is indicated by the alignment stick (on the left in each photo) that travels directly through the divot. The target line is the alignment stick on the right side of the picture. As you can see, the divots had no correlation to direction or curvature.

Shot #1

Divot 1

Shot #2

Divot 2

Shot #3

Divot 3

Shot #4

Divot 4

If you are trying to determine swing faults or fitting issues by looking at divots, you will be chasing an answer that does not exist. Keep your focus on impact location, face angle, club path, and angle of attack, and you’ll be on your way to better fittings.

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PGA Member and Golf Professional at Biltmore Forest Country Club in Asheville, NC. Former PGA Tour and Regional Representative for TrackMan Golf. Graduate of Campbell University's PGM Program with 12 years of experience in the golf industry. My passion for knowledge and application of instruction in golf is what drives me everyday.

57 Comments

57 Comments

  1. when_is_a_wrench_not_a_wrench

    Aug 27, 2017 at 3:29 pm

    Did anyone notice the main photo shows someone pretending to insert a wrench into a M2 Tour Iron head?

    • Beta

      Aug 27, 2017 at 8:22 pm

      Yeah? So? It’s a Fitting head. They have one of those last year lol so he’s not pretending

  2. SoonerSlim

    Aug 27, 2017 at 11:02 am

    Hunter, very interesting article, but for me it did not go far enough because I’ve never seen and do not understand what the side and spin axis numbers you offer for the divot pictures represent. Unfortunately, you did not go far enough and offer an explanation for them. For example, what’s the difference between + and – spin axis? What does the side number mean? Great article except for the last part.

    thanks, SoonerSlim

    • Hunter Brown

      Aug 27, 2017 at 1:28 pm

      Sooner, thanks for reading and giving your feedback. You are probably right I should have included some definitions about Spin Axis and Side. Coming from that world sometimes I forget not everyone knows the terminology. Spin axis represents which way the golf ball is curving so if positive the ball is curving to the right and if negative it is curving to the left. Side represents how far off of the target line the ball landed. Hope this helps! If you want to learn more about TrackMan Definitions visit the trackman blog.

      • SoonerSlim

        Aug 27, 2017 at 9:34 pm

        Thanks, Hunter

        Never have seen or used a trackman, too old school I guess.

        S

  3. Michael

    Aug 26, 2017 at 11:10 am

    What if your line is straight on the club face but out towards the toe?

  4. Jeffrey

    Aug 26, 2017 at 4:14 am

    Heres an idea. Why don’t we go out with our golf clubs and hit the ball and have some fun and forget about all this numbers/fitting/trackman/drills/etc BS. If you play good, great. If you play bad, there is always next time.

    • emb

      Aug 28, 2017 at 2:49 pm

      ya who cares about shooting your best possible scores, might as well buy your equipment from walmart and play top flites right

  5. Stevegp

    Aug 25, 2017 at 11:50 pm

    Enjoyed the article and subsequent discussion. Getting fitted and hitting a club outdoors always seemed much different–and better–than hitting into a net while indoors.

  6. Guia

    Aug 25, 2017 at 6:38 pm

    I am lost! Seems most of what has been accepted in the past is wrong, or misused.

  7. Marooned

    Aug 25, 2017 at 6:04 pm

    No idea of how the “fitting culture” are in the states. But here in Europe (Sweden) most of this is common sense except your point of the lieboard.

    It is such a great and easy tool and a must have. One thing about lie though that I feel is that many people just hit a couple of shots with an 7-iron and that sets the marknfor the lieangle throughout the set.

    A longer iron such as an 4-iron often needs a more upright lieangle then a 9-iron for example.

    The majority of people a do an lietest with hitting a 4, 7 and 9-iron are hitting it more on the toe with a 4-iron compared to the 9-iron.

    • Bert

      Aug 26, 2017 at 6:23 pm

      Good thoughts – I’ve always just hit a 6 or 7 off the lie board. I’ve measured all my lofts and lies but tomorrow I’ll hit the long irons and short irons off the board and note the results.

  8. Bob

    Aug 25, 2017 at 4:22 pm

    Gee, it seems like there is a lot of disagreement about proper club fitting technique. I have gotten advice about clubs on several occasions but never really had a fitting. One reason is that I have heard so much disagreement about how it should be done and am not aware of any standards or any acknowledged experts (e.g. Ping vs Callaway, etc.). I suppose the best shot might be to work with a pro, who also provides instruction and who will be around to provide guidance after new clubs are purchased or current clubs are adjusted for length, loft, lie, swing weight, grip, etc. The big question is why spend a lot of money, if you don’t know what you are buying?

  9. Rors

    Aug 25, 2017 at 4:15 pm

    Steve Elkington has a video on youtube about dynamic fitting for irons… He marks a ball with a sharpie and that mark imprints on your club… I tried it and its the best…

  10. Ben Jones

    Aug 25, 2017 at 3:24 pm

    Good Lord! How did we survive before technology. Now, I can get some really great clubs perfectly fit for me on that day for $4,000 or more, but if my swing ain’t worth crap and I can’t putt, what good is all this?

  11. Lorne

    Aug 25, 2017 at 3:19 pm

    Clubs have a ‘static’ lie and a ‘dynamic’ lie which is a function of shaft tip ‘droop’. The position of the hands and club butt end changes through release and impact, which will affect the shaft lie.
    The weight and shape of the clubhead will affect dynamic lie because the clubhead CofGs vary the droop characteristics of the shaft. Shaft specs influences dynamic loft as does downswing plane and clubhead speed which can vary as the golfer fatigues during the round.
    So we have how many variables for dynamic lie? 6? 7? 8? 9? More? Less?
    A good fitter can measure several of these lie factors but must also use intuitive knowledge to match the golfer to the optimal shaft and clubhead, and grip too. Good luck.

  12. Tata

    Aug 25, 2017 at 2:41 pm

    In regards to #3.
    I can guarantee you that 9 out of 10 amateurs who can’t hit their driver past 200 yards is solely focused on that aspect. They don’t care about anything else, because they all believe that once their distance is sorted out, that they can then learn to control their ball flight. Which is deadly absolutely true.

  13. Dave

    Aug 25, 2017 at 2:28 pm

    Very interested in this article, yes I understand how you can determine lie angle by using a marker pen on the ball and Callaway use this method a lot with there fitting. We use the marker on the ball when fitting outdoors, but indoors with launch monitor the Marker ruins the white screen we have for our projector and leaves black marks on the screen. Would be interested to know if there are any other ways of determining a correct lie angle without the option of a lie board or marker pen on a ball???

    • Noodler

      Aug 25, 2017 at 8:26 pm

      I temporarily hang a black tarp/net in front of the screen to prevent the marker from being left on the white screen.

    • Hunter Brown

      Aug 25, 2017 at 8:28 pm

      Dave I would suggest always keeping your focus on flight and dispersion. From there if you need to make adjustments to lie angle you can but it shouldn’t be the first thing we go to

      • Noodler

        Aug 26, 2017 at 9:21 am

        Sorry Hunter, but I believe this is misguided advice. Golfers should be fit to their physique, strength, flexibility, etc., not to their swing mechanics. Swing mechanics will change over time (even day to day). Using lie angle adjustment to compensate for swing flaws is not the right approach. Trying to use club fitting to compensate for swing flaws is the 6th biggest mistake in club fitting.

        • Hunter Brown

          Aug 27, 2017 at 9:19 am

          Why can’t it be both? I never said you shouldn’t fit for the human being in front of you. Too much mutual exclusivity in your train of thought.

  14. TexasSnowman

    Aug 25, 2017 at 11:31 am

    Agree with the comments on hitting indoors; I never feel like I hit my best shots. Club Fitting needs some type of standards or certification for competence. Even if you pay for a “tour level” fitting, you really have no idea if the fitter knows what he is doing… I’m not saying take all the ‘art’ out of the process, but it’s really the wild west out there in terms of quality.

  15. Bobalu

    Aug 25, 2017 at 10:50 am

    Hunter- Great points! Fittings need to be done with a competent fitter with Trackman on the range. Period. Good luck finding this.

  16. ADIDAG

    Aug 25, 2017 at 10:36 am

    Looks like to get optimum anything players need to focus on roll

  17. Nack Jicklaus

    Aug 25, 2017 at 9:59 am

    You can get a good idea if your lie angle is correct by drawing a straight line around the circumference of a ball with a sharpie. Sit the ball on the ground with the line pointing straight up and down and with the line also pointing directly where you intend to hit the ball (just like people who line up putts with a line drawn on their ball). Now hit your shot and some of the sharpie line will stick to the face of your club. If the line is perfectly perpendicular to the grooves on your club, then your lie angle is correct. If not, it needs changing one way or the other.

    • Steve

      Aug 25, 2017 at 12:47 pm

      100% spot on. Well done.

    • Hunter Brown

      Aug 25, 2017 at 6:26 pm

      I agree with this however if the line is perpendicular and the golf ball is going as straight as possible for that player then why should we care. My point is we should always focus on ball flight not the extraneous details that sometimes do or do not matter

  18. Sam

    Aug 25, 2017 at 9:56 am

    Lie angle has been a big question mark for me. So what is a better way to determine this other than a lie board? Almost, every ‘fitter’ or club seller I’ve seen, used a lie board, with one exception at DSGoods .. one employee used impact tape and adjusted lie angle until center contact was made .. very strange to me.

    • OGWC

      Aug 25, 2017 at 10:05 am

      Use a dry erase marker and put a vertical line on the ball. This is a simple and effective way to read the lie. When you hit the ball, the line gets transferred to the club face. A straight line up and down on the iron face means the lie is good.

    • Hunter Brown

      Aug 25, 2017 at 6:30 pm

      Dry erase is a decent solution however I would suggest just to focus on ball flight and dispersion. I would never care if a sharpie isn’t perpendicular or a piece of tape on the bottom of the face is telling me the club is “upright”. If a player is getting good results then that’s all that matters on course.

      • Noodler

        Aug 25, 2017 at 8:30 pm

        This only makes sense if you adhere to the idea that you should use lie angle adjustment to change ball flight. Many other factors could be impacting ball flight. Trying to fix ball flight due to other swing flaws via lie angle adjustments is a fool’s folly (IMHO).

  19. KV

    Aug 25, 2017 at 9:49 am

    Help me understand your thoughts on lie boards. You talk about dynamic loft but criticize the lie board. It’s not called a “loft” board it’s a lie board. How else do we adjust lie without knowing where and how the club sole contacts the ground? Get everything else right and have the wrong lie adjustment and you’ve wasted a lot of time.

    • Hunter Brown

      Aug 25, 2017 at 6:32 pm

      Hey KV thanks for reading and your thoughts. I would always start with ball flight and dispersion if this is something you can measure or a pro near you can. Lie board’s tell us nothing about the shot that was just hit so I don’t know why we should care.

      • JN

        Aug 25, 2017 at 7:21 pm

        Although there are better ways to examine dynamic lie over the lie board (e.g. HMT), it definitely is relevant. Regardless of someone’s ball flight, getting them fit so that the dynamic lie is near 0 will improve their consistency and quality of impact. It’s just hard to consistently hit the center of the face when the toe or heel of the club dig into the ground early. The small change in face angle due to a lie change can be always be addressed after the fact. If you need help with a slice, just closing the face during setup with a proper lie angle is better than making impact toe up and getting the face closed from that.

  20. Justin

    Aug 25, 2017 at 8:58 am

    You say not to use a lie board…not to look at divots…. How do you determine proper lie? Cannot do by shot pattern into a net. If you are going to give criticism, provide a solution as well.

    • Jon

      Aug 25, 2017 at 9:19 am

      I couldn’t agree more, Justin. How am I supposed to determine the proper lie angle without the aid of a lie board? I am new at this and am trying to learn how to make the proper adjustments on my own.

    • Nick

      Aug 25, 2017 at 9:48 am

      Trackman

      • Nick W

        Aug 25, 2017 at 11:15 am

        Trackman does not tell lie angles, trackman spits out information regarding ball flight. It does not care if its 10* upright or 2* flat.

    • Matt

      Aug 25, 2017 at 11:15 am

      Take some chalk or marker that will transfer when struck. Draw a straight line on the ball. Put the ball on the ground with the line vertical where you will strike it. Hit the ball. Look at the club face… you’ll have a good idea whether your club is too flat or upright.

    • Hunter Brown

      Aug 25, 2017 at 6:35 pm

      Hey Justin thanks for the input. I would always prefer to do a fitting outside if possible. Even on the course sometimes. If not possible and you are only hitting into a net then hopefully you have availability of TrackMan. If not I would suggest trying to find one. My point of lie boards and divots is that they have no correlation to what the ball is actually doing so why should we care? TrackMan does not specifically spit out a number called lie angle however it does tell us Face Angle at impact and Dynamic loft which would be a result of lie angle. If those numbers are good then you should be ok.

  21. Jon

    Aug 25, 2017 at 8:54 am

    If lie boards are horrid, how am I supposed to determine what lie angle is best suited for me? I am looking for a little more education on this subject as I am just getting started with trying to assemble and adjust my own clubs. Thank you in advance for any and all advice.

    • Greg

      Aug 25, 2017 at 10:15 am

      Draw a vertical line on the ball with a sharpie. Examine the line it leaves on the club face. Adjust until vertical. Google it or search the forums.

    • Hunter Brown

      Aug 25, 2017 at 6:47 pm

      Hey Jon thanks for reading and taking the time to respond. I would rather the focus to be on ball flight and dispersion in a fitting. Also loft and lie adjustments can sometimes be a band aid for a bullet hole as it doesn’t address the root cause of the issue. Not always the case if you are really trying to dial things in with little tweaks but I get scared when people are fit for major lie adjustments. Often I think it actually makes the problem worse. I would work from the ball flight backwards. If thats good then why adjust? If it isn’t then you can make some adjustments of the loft lie but as I said earlier be cautious

      • Loz

        Aug 26, 2017 at 3:44 am

        So as I’m 6′ 4″ provided I can hit an off the shelf club ok I shouldn’t worry about custom fitting? On the Ping scale I come out at 4 degrees upright and plus one inch. I know I can hit an off the shelf club well, but won’t I subconsciously be compensating in my setup and swing. I’m a 4 hcp and have pretty solid fundamentals. Surely I’m going to be catching the toe first on everything, which can’t be a good thing. What would be my start point in your fitting?

  22. Robert Malaussena

    Aug 25, 2017 at 8:52 am

    Get fitted by your local PGA pro on a range.

    • Bert

      Aug 26, 2017 at 7:08 pm

      I’m not sure that’s good information. PGA Pro, good fitting? Maybe find a good PGA professional or golf instructor for lessons.

  23. xjohnx

    Aug 25, 2017 at 8:48 am

    Though some of these mistakes are made only in professional, outdoor fittings, #3 is the biggest thing wrong with the golf industry as a whole. Most people getting “fit” are walking into a sporting goods store or golf shop and comparing a few drivers and looking at the “numbers” on a very one dimensional basis and in a short amount of time. #3 happens just about everywhere just about every time.

  24. Me

    Aug 25, 2017 at 8:47 am

    As a fitter ….

    Irons, I weigh on more ball flight, direction and consistent carry. Ideally on natural turf as opposed to a hard mat. Driver; I agree completely with the writer, then again the golfer has final say, after reviewing the data of what ball flight they “like” . There are some that prefer a lower ball flight period, its often what they feel the most comfortable with- despite the technology and Data. Sergio for example prefers a slightly lower & more boring trajectory. No everyone is like Sergio but there is a fair amount of my customers that prefer a 10 degree launch angle than a say a 12.

    Even tougher to fit is older guys, who have slowly lost distance every year. Who in a subtle attempt of trying to speed up the driver head at impact, resort to lurching ahead of the ball with their hips, body and head, de-lofting the head to a negative attack angle. Rather than neutral or +1, 2, 3 degree attack angle by staying behind the ball.

    good article over all.

  25. Andy

    Aug 25, 2017 at 8:39 am

    I suspect many people do not feel like they are swinging 100% like they normally do with indoor fittings. I am one of those people who feel confined and I also like to have a further away target. We will look back at hitting balls 15 feet into a padded screen as a huge mistake. Hit the clubs on the range and on the course before purchasing. Not many fitters offer this.

    There will come a day when we can swing some tool at a course and capture all the necessary data and the tool will identify the possible clubs to maximize our swing. The possible clubs will include past years and even various cost options. The Fitter model today is like new car salesman. I don’t feel 100% sure that their interest and my interest is fully aligned.

    • Me

      Aug 25, 2017 at 8:52 am

      Andy, that’s not unusual & normal for some. I compare the feeling you have to driving a car. When we do we focus on an object 100-150 feet ahead ( depending on car speed) as opposed to looking just over the hood and have to constantly correct steering of the automobile. In other examples some people feel like they are hitting into heavy fog when being fitted in an indoor simulator. I still do the fitting, but once things are narrowed down, take the club outdoors.

  26. Tom F. Stickney II

    Aug 25, 2017 at 8:34 am

    Good points HB!

  27. Thus

    Aug 25, 2017 at 8:21 am

    Great advice, as a club fitter I recommend all other fitters and even coaches read this… lie boards are horrid and reading divots can create disastrous thoughts

    • Nick W

      Aug 25, 2017 at 11:18 am

      What would you propose for lie angle assessment if you are not using a lie board or reading divot patterns?

      • Loz

        Aug 26, 2017 at 3:26 am

        Yes I’d like to hear this too. I’m 6′ 4″ and am 4 degrees upright on the Ping scale. I currently have 2 degree up 1/2″ long Mizuno from their national UK fitting centre, yes a lie board was used. As I can hit my friends off the rack club straight, probably subconsciously compensating in my setup and swing, then I actually don’t need custom fit clubs. My natural swing is always going to hit slightly toe down and you think there’s nothing wrong with this in the long term?

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open betting preview

Published

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As the Florida swing comes to an end, the PGA Tour makes its way to Houston to play the Texas Children’s Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course.

This will be the fourth year that Memorial Park Golf Course will serve as the tournament host. The event did not take place in 2023, but the course hosted the event in 2020, 2021 and 2022.

Memorial Park is a par-70 layout measuring 7,432 yards and features Bermudagrass greens. Historically, the main defense for the course has been thick rough along the fairways and tightly mown runoff areas around the greens. Memorial Park has a unique setup that features three Par 5’s and five Par 3’s.

The field will consist of 132 players, with the top 65 and ties making the cut. There are some big names making the trip to Houston, including Scottie Scheffler, Wyndham Clark, Tony Finau, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala.

Past Winners at Memorial Park

  • 2022: Tony Finau (-16)
  • 2021: Jason Kokrak (-10)
  • 2020: Carlos Ortiz (-13)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Memorial Park

Let’s take a look at several metrics for Memorial Park to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds:

Strokes Gained: Approach

Memorial Park is a pretty tough golf course. Golfers are penalized for missing greens and face some difficult up and downs to save par. Approach will be key.

Total Strokes Gained: Approach per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.30)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.26)
  3. Keith Mitchell (+0.97) 
  4. Tony Finau (+0.92)
  5. Jake Knapp (+0.84)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Memorial Park is a long golf course with rough that can be penal. Therefore, a combination of distance and accuracy is the best metric.

Total Strokes Gained: Off the Tee per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+0.94)
  2. Kevin Dougherty (+0.93)
  3. Cameron Champ (+0.86)
  4. Rafael Campos (+0.84)
  5. Si Woo Kim (+0.70)

Strokes Gained Putting: Bermudagrass + Fast

The Bermudagrass greens played fairly fast the past few years in Houston. Jason Kokrak gained 8.7 strokes putting on his way to victory in 2021 and Tony Finau gained in 7.8 in 2022.

Total Strokes Gained Putting (Bermudagrass) per round past 24 rounds (min. 8 rounds):

  1. Adam Svensson (+1.27)
  2. Harry Hall (+1.01)
  3. Martin Trainer (+0.94)
  4. Taylor Montgomery (+0.88)
  5. S.H. Kim (+0.86)

Strokes Gained: Around the Green

With firm and undulating putting surfaces, holding the green on approach shots may prove to be a challenge. Memorial Park has many tightly mowed runoff areas, so golfers will have challenging up-and-down’s around the greens. Carlos Ortiz gained 5.7 strokes around the green on the way to victory in 2020.

Total Strokes Gained: Around the Green per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Mackenzie Hughes (+0.76)
  2. S.H. Kim (+0.68)
  3. Scottie Scheffler (+0.64)
  4. Jorge Campillo (+0.62)
  5. Jason Day (+0.60)

Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult

Memorial Park is a long and difficult golf course. This statistic will incorporate players who’ve had success on these types of tracks in the past. 

Total Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.45)
  2. Ben Griffin (+1.75)
  3. Will Zalatoris (+1.73)
  4. Ben Taylor (+1.53)
  5. Tony Finau (+1.42)

Course History

Here are the players who have performed the most consistently at Memorial Park. 

Strokes Gained Total at Memorial Park past 12 rounds:

  1. Tyson Alexander (+3.65)
  2. Ben Taylor (+3.40)
  3. Tony Finau (+2.37)
  4. Joel Dahmen (+2.25)
  5. Patton Kizzire (+2.16)

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (24%) SG: OTT (24%); SG: Putting Bermudagrass/Fast (13%); SG: Long and Difficult (13%); SG: ARG (13%) and Course History (13%)

  1. Scottie Scheffler
  2. Wyndham Clark
  3. Tony Finau
  4. Joel Dahmen
  5. Stephan Jaeger 
  6. Aaron Rai
  7. Sahith Theegala
  8. Keith Mitchell 
  9. Jhonnatan Vegas
  10. Jason Day
  11. Kurt Kitayama
  12. Alex Noren
  13. Will Zalatoris
  14. Si Woo Kim
  15. Adam Long

2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open Picks

Will Zalatoris +2000 (Caesars)

Scottie Scheffler will undoubtedly be difficult to beat this week, so I’m starting my card with someone who I believe has the talent to beat him if he doesn’t have his best stuff.

Will Zalatoris missed the cut at the PLAYERS, but still managed to gain strokes on approach while doing so. In an unpredictable event with extreme variance, I don’t believe it would be wise to discount Zalatoris based on that performance. Prior to The PLAYERS, the 27-year-old finished T13, T2 and T4 in his previous three starts.

Zalatoris plays his best golf on long and difficult golf courses. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the category, but the eye test also tells a similar story. He’s contended at major championships and elevated events in the best of fields with tough scoring conditions.  The Texas resident should be a perfect fit at Memorial Park Golf Club.

Alex Noren +4500 (FanDuel)

Alex Noren has been quietly playing some of his best golf of the last half decade this season. The 41-year-old is coming off back-to-back top-20 finishes in Florida including a T9 at The PLAYERS in his most recent start.

In his past 24 rounds, Noren ranks 21st in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 30th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, 25th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses and 21st in Strokes Gained: Putting on fast Bermudagrass greens.

In addition to his strong recent play, the Swede also has played well at Memorial Park. In 2022, Noren finished T4 at the event, gaining 2.2 strokes off the tee and 7.0 strokes on approach for the week. In his two starts at the course, he’s gained an average of .6 strokes per round on the field, indicating he is comfortable on these greens.

Noren has been due for a win for what feels like an eternity, but Memorial Park may be the course that suits him well enough for him to finally get his elusive first PGA Tour victory.

Mackenzie Hughes +8000 (FanDuel)

Mackenzie Hughes found himself deep into contention at last week’s Valspar Championship before faltering late and finishing in a tie for 3rd place. While he would have loved to win the event, it’s hard to see the performance as anything other than an overwhelming positive sign for the Canadian.

Hughes has played great golf at Memorial Park in the past. He finished T7 in 2020, T29 in 2021 and T16 in 2022. The course fit seems to be quite strong for Hughes. He’s added distance off the tee in the past year or and ranks 8th in the field for apex height, which will be a key factor when hitting into Memorial Park’s elevated greens with steep run-off areas.

In his past 24 rounds, Hughes is the best player in the field in Strokes Gained: Around the Greens. The ability to scramble at this course will be extremely important. I believe Hughes can build off of his strong finish last week and contend once again to cement himself as a President’s Cup consideration.

Akshay Bhatia +8000 (FanDuel)

Akshay Bhatia played well last week at the Valspar and seemed to be in total control of his golf ball. He finished in a tie for 17th and shot an impressive -3 on a difficult Sunday. After struggling Thursday, Akshay shot 68-70-68 in his next three rounds.

Thus far, Bhatia has played better at easier courses, but his success at Copperhead may be due to his game maturing. The 22-year-old has enormous potential and the raw talent to be one of the best players in the world when he figures it all out.

Bhatia is a high upside play with superstar qualities and may just take the leap forward to the next stage of his career in the coming months.

Cameron Champ +12000 (FanDuel)

Cameron Champ is a player I often target in the outright betting market due to his “boom-or-bust” nature. It’s hard to think of a player in recent history with three PGA Tour wins who’s been as inconsistent as Champ has over the course of his career.

Despite the erratic play, Cam Champ simply knows how to win. He’s won in 2018, 2019 and 2021, so I feel he’s due for a win at some point this season. The former Texas A&M product should be comfortable in Texas and last week he showed us that his game is in a pretty decent spot.

Over his past 24 rounds, Champ ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 30th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses. Given his ability to spike at any given time, Memorial Park is a good golf course to target Champ on at triple digit odds.

Robert MacIntyre +12000 (FanDuel)

The challenge this week is finding players who can possibly beat Scottie Scheffler while also not dumping an enormous amount of money into an event that has a player at the top that looks extremely dangerous. Enter McIntyre, who’s another boom-or-bust type player who has the ceiling to compete with anyone when his game is clicking on all cylinders.

In his past 24 rounds, MacIntyre ranks 16th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 17th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and 10th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses.

MacIntyre’s PGA Tour season has gotten off to a slow start, but he finished T6 in Mexico, which is a course where players will hit driver on the majority of their tee shots, which is what we will see at Memorial Park. Texas can also get quite windy, which should suit MacIntyre. Last July, the Scot went toe to toe with Rory McIlroy at the Scottish Open before a narrow defeat. It would take a similar heroic effort to compete with Scheffler this year in Houston.

Ryan Moore +15000 (FanDuel)

Ryan Moore’s iron play has been absolutely unconscious over his past few starts. At The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field, he gained 6.1 strokes on approach and last week at Copperhead, he gained 9.0 strokes on approach.

It’s been a rough handful of years on Tour for the 41-year-old, but he is still a five-time winner on the PGA Tour who’s young enough for a career resurgence. Moore has chronic deterioration in a costovertebral joint that connects the rib to the spine, but has been getting more consistent of late, which is hopefully a sign that he is getting healthy.

Veterans have been contending in 2024 and I believe taking a flier on a proven Tour play who’s shown signs of life is a wise move at Memorial Park.

 

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Why the race to get better at golf might be doing more harm than good

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B.F. Skinner was one of the most important psychologists of the 20th century, developing the foundation of the development of reinforcement, and in doing so, creating the concept of behaviorism. In simple terms, this means that we are conditioned by our habits. In practical terms, it explains the divide between the few and far between elite instructors and college coaches.

To understand the application, let’s quickly review one of B.F. Skinner’s most important experiments; superstitions in the formation of behavior by pigeons. In this experiment, food was dispensed to pigeons at random intervals. Soon, according to Skinner, the pigeons began to associate whatever action they were doing at the time of the food being dispensed. According to Skinner, this conditioned that response and soon, they simply haphazardly repeated the action, failing to distinguish between cause and correlation (and in the meantime, looking really funny!).

Now, this is simply the best way to describe the actions of most every women’s college golf coach and too many instructors in America. They see something work, get positive feedback and then become conditioned to give the feedback, more and more, regardless of if it works (this is also why tips from your buddies never work!).

Go to a college event, particularly a women’s one, and you will see coaches running all over the place. Like the pigeons in the experiment, they have been conditioned into a codependent relationship with their players in which they believe their words and actions, can transform a round of golf. It is simply hilarious while being equally perturbing

In junior golf, it’s everywhere. Junior golf academies make a living selling parents that a hysterical coach and over-coaching are essential ingredients in your child’s success.

Let’s be clear, no one of any intellect has any real interest in golf — because it’s not that interesting. The people left, including most coaches and instructors, carve out a small fiefdom, usually on the corner of the range, where they use the illusion of competency to pray on people. In simple terms, they baffle people with the bullshit of pseudo-science that they can make you better, after just one more lesson.

The reality is that life is an impromptu game. The world of golf, business, and school have a message that the goal is being right. This, of course, is bad advice, being right in your own mind is easy, trying to push your ideas on others is hard. As a result, it is not surprising that the divorce rate among golf professionals and their instructors is 100 percent. The transfer rate among college players continues to soar, and too many courses have a guy peddling nefarious science to good people. In fact, we do at my course!

The question is, what impact does all this have on college-age and younger kids? At this point, we honestly don’t know. However, I am going to go out on a limb and say it isn’t good.

Soren Kierkegaard once quipped “I saw it for what it is, and I laughed.” The actions of most coaches and instructors in America are laughable. The problem is that I am not laughing because they are doing damage to kids, as well as driving good people away from this game.

The fact is that golfers don’t need more tips, secrets, or lessons. They need to be presented with a better understanding of the key elements of golf. With this understanding, they can then start to frame which information makes sense and what doesn’t. This will emancipate them and allow them to take charge of their own development.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Valspar Championship betting preview: Elite ballstrikers to thrive at Copperhead

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The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2024 Valspar Championship.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermudagrass greens overseeded with POA. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 16, 17 and 18 — also known as the “Snake Pit” — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.

The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. The field this week is solid and is a major improvement over last year’s field that felt the impact of players skipping due to a handful of “signature events” in a short span of time. 

Past Winners at Valspar Championship

  • 2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
  • 2022: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
  • 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
  • 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
  • 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
  • 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Copperhead

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can’t be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)

  1. Tony Finau (+.90)
  2. Nick Taylor (+.81)
  3. Justin Thomas (+.77)
  4. Greyson Sigg (+.69)
  5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+.67)

2. Good Drive %

The long hitters can be a bit limited here due to the tree-lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important, but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.

Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+91.3%) 
  2. Zach Johnson (+91.1%)
  3. Sam Ryder (+90.5%)
  4. Ryan Moore (+90.4%)
  5. Aaron Rai (+89.7%)

3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1.32)
  2. Keith Mitchell (+1.29)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.24)
  4. Cameron Young (+1.17) 
  5. Doug Ghim (+.95)

4. Bogey Avoidance

With the conditions likely to be difficult, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, oftentimes the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.

Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.

Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+9.0)
  2. Xander Schauffele (+9.3)
  3. Austin Cook (+9.7) 
  4. Chesson Hadley (+10.0)
  5. Greyson Sigg (+10.2)

5. Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions

Conditions will be tough this week at Copperhead. I am looking for golfers who can rise to the occasion if the course plays as difficult as it has in the past.

Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1,71) 
  2. Min Woo Lee (+1.39)
  3. Cameron Young (+1.27)
  4. Jordan Spieth (+1.08)
  5. Justin Suh (+.94)

6. Course History

That statistic will tell us which players have played well at Copperhead in the past.

Course History Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+3.75) 
  2. Sam Burns (+2.49)
  3. Davis Riley (+2.33)
  4. Matt NeSmith (+2.22)
  5. Jordan Spieth (+2.04)

The Valspar Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Good Drive % (15%), SG: BS (20%), Bogeys Avoided (13%), Course History (13%) Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions (12%).

  1. Xander Schauffele
  2. Doug Ghim
  3. Victor Perez
  4. Greyson Sigg
  5. Ryan Moore
  6. Tony Finau
  7. Justin Thomas
  8. Sam Ryder
  9. Sam Burns
  10. Lucas Glover

2024 Valspar Championship Picks

Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)

Justin Thomas will be disappointed with his finish at last week’s PLAYERS Championship, as the past champion missed the cut despite being in some decent form heading into the event. Despite the missed cut, JT hit the ball really well. In his two rounds, the two-time major champion led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach per round.

Thomas has been up and down this season. He’s missed the cut in two “signature events” but also has finishes of T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T6 at the Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am and T3 at the American Express. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in the field.

Thomas loves Copperhead. In his last three tries at the course, he’s finished T13, T3 and T10. Thomas would have loved to get a win at a big event early in the season, but avoidable mistakes and a balky putter have cost him dearly. I believe a trip to a course he loves in a field he should be able to capitalize on is the right recipe for JT to right the ship.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (FanDuel)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is playing spectacular golf in the 2024 season. He finished 2nd at the American Express, T20 at Pebble Beach and T24 at the Genesis Invitational before finishing T13 at last week’s PLAYERS Championship.

In his past 24 rounds, the South African ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 26th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. Bezuidenhout managed to work his way around TPC Sawgrass last week with minimal damage. He only made five bogeys in the entire week, which is a great sign heading into a difficult Copperhead this week.

Bezuidenhout is winless in his PGA Tour career, but certainly has the talent to win on Tour. His recent iron play tells me that this week could be a breakthrough for the 35-year-old who has eyes on the President’s Cup.

Doug Ghim +8000 (FanDuel)

Doug Ghim has finished in the top-16 of his past five starts. Most recently, Ghim finished T16 at The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field.

In his past 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 5th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. In terms of his fit for Copperhead, the 27-year-old ranks 12th in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions, making him a great fit for the course.

Ghim has yet to win on Tour, but at one point he was the top ranked Amateur golfer in the world and played in the 2017 Arnold Palmer Cup and 2017 Walker Cup. He then won the Ben Hogan award for the best male college golfer in 2018. He certainly has the talent, and there are signals aplenty that his talent in ready to take him to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour.

Sepp Straka +8000 (BetRivers)

Sepp Straka is a player who’s shown he has the type of game that can translate to a difficult Florida golf course. The former Presidents Cup participant won the 2022 Honda Classic in tough conditions and should thrive with a similar test at Copperhead.

It’s been a slow 2024 for Straka, but his performance last week at the PLAYERS Championship surely provides some optimism. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach as well as 1.88 strokes off the tee. The tee-to-green game Straka showed on a course with plenty of danger demonstrates that he can stay in control of his golf ball this week.

It’s possible that the strong performance last week was an outlier, but I’m willing to bet on a proven winner in a weaker field at a great number.

Victor Perez +12000 (FanDuel)

Victor Perez is no stranger to success in professional golf. The Frenchman has three DP World Tour wins including a Rolex Series event. He won the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, as well as the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which are some big events.

Perez earned his PGA Tour card this season and enters the week playing some fantastic golf. He finished in a tie for 16th in Florida at the Cognizant Classic and then tied for third in his most recent start at the Puerto Rico Open.

In his past 24 rounds in the field, Perez ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 1oth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Good Drive % and 15th in Bogey Avoidance.

Perez comes in as a perfect fit for Copperhead and offers serious value at triple-digit odds.

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