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The 5 Biggest Mistakes in Club Fitting

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Throughout my golf career, I have been fortunate to spend time with some of the best club fitters in the world. Before I became a full-time golf instructor, I was a Tour Rep for TrackMan, which had me traveling around the U.S. and beyond to top club fitters and golf professionals. Through that experience, combined with my own teaching and fitting background, I have come to understand the many mistakes that can be made during a club fitting.

This article is not meant as a criticism toward any club fitter or golf professional. I simply want to pass on what I’ve learned to GolfWRXers and the greater golf community to do my part to make sure golfers don’t end up with a set of clubs that are a detriment to their games (and their wallets). These are the 5 biggest mistakes in club fitting.

1. Using Face Tape

Face tape has been used in club fitting for a long time. It is extremely helpful in showing us where on the club face a golf ball was struck, and it helps us understand more about why the ball is flying the way it does. This is the only way I would ever recommend using tape on the face of a golf club.

If you are a club fitter or a golf professional trying to protect your golf club during a fitting, it’s fine to put tape on the top or bottom of a wood to protect it from sole wear or potential sky marks. It’s a grave mistake to use tape on the face when you’re evaluating ball flight and/or launch monitor numbers, however, and you can see why in the example below.

Ghost tape

With the tape on his driver club face, this golfer had about 700 more rpm of spin and 14 yards less total distance. If you are a golf professional and you want to dial in your students, DO NOT use face tape when you’re evaluating ball flight. A good alternative to face tape is Dr. Scholls foot spray. It may sound a little strange, but it will show where the ball was struck and have little to no effect on the ball flight.

2. Assuming Optimal Launch and Spin are Uniform

This is something I hear quite a bit, even from golf equipment manufacturers. Not too long ago, many in the golf industry were in agreement that the optimal launch and spin for any golfer with a driver for maximum distance was a 17-degree launch angle with 1700 rpm of spin. This might be true in a bubble, but we as humans have thousands of different combinations of swings and speeds, making this guideline almost completely useless. Take a look at some numbers for two very different golfers below: Player A and Player B. I want you to consider what you think good launch and spin should be for both.

Player A

Player A

Player B

Player b

In this scenario, I think most would assume that Player A (a low-speed player) would need significantly more spin to be optimal than Player B (a high-speed player). The rule of thumb is that the slower a golfer swings, the more spin they need to keep the ball in the air for maximum distance. Using that guideline, however, you wouldn’t optimize either golfer.

In club fittings, everything hinges on the specific needs of the golfer in front of you. The three main player inputs that determine optimal launch and spin are:

  1. Club Head Speed
  2. Attack Angle
  3. Desired Trajectory

In choosing a desired trajectory, a golfer has three options. They can opt for a high trajectory for maximum carry distance, a low trajectory for the most roll out (and sometimes the most total distance, depending on the conditions of the courses they play), or a combination that balances the two (carry and total). For simplicity, let’s assume both of these golfers want to optimize for the combination of carry and total. Now, let’s take a look at the optimization chart for each player below.

Player A Optimized

LandauPlayer B Optimized

karan

As it turns out, Player B with 135 mph of club head speed needs more spin than Player A with 76 mph of club head speed. It goes against my instincts, too, but it’s true. The reason is the Attack Angle for each player.

  • Player A is hitting 5-degrees up on the ball, so he is already launching the ball into the air. For that reason, he doesn’t need as much spin for optimal distance.
  • Player B is hitting 3-degrees down on the ball, so he needs more more loft and more spin to keep the ball in the air for optimal distance.

3. Only Looking at Distance Gained

This is the biggest and most common mistake I see during fittings. Both golfers and fitters are guilty of focusing on the one shot that travels 8-10 yards further during a fitting, and because it has the most distance potential, they assume that it’s the best club. I will never tell anyone that distance isn’t important, but I believe that too much emphasis has been placed on it in both driver and iron fittings.

Dispersion is huge for playability, and I suggest fitters take the time to allow golfers to hit plenty of shots in fittings. This allows them to not only optimize for distance, but also for dispersion.

Golf equipment manufacturers have given us fantastic equipment that can makes it very easy to adjust ball flight. The ability we have to tweak weighting, face angle, and lie angle can be vital to our ability to create a tighter dispersion. If you’re fitting outside, however, I encourage all fitters to go beyond the flat, perfect lies of the driving range. Have golfers hit shots from different lies and locations, and get them out on the course if you can. By testing clubs for the shots golfers are most likely to encounter during a normal round of play, you’re going to gain a much better understanding of what club will actually perform best for them.

Graham

Above are the Trackman numbers for a highly skilled junior golfer during a driver fitting. He was carrying shots about 245 yards with a total distance of 260 yards, and the ball was flying very straight. In the fitting, we were able to narrow down his best options to two drivers. With one of them, he cracked the longest shot he hit all day: 251.5 yards in the air, rolling out to almost 280 yards.

With that driver, he also recorded his fastest ball speed and best total distance by about 8 yards. When we look at the full picture, however, we will see it was not the best driver for him.

graham 2

Driver #2 (white) is absolutely the most consistent in length and dispersion despite the fact that he hit Driver #1 (yellow) farther one time. Most golfers only think of their bad shots as “outliers,” when in fact they should often be discounting their very best shot with a club in the cases when the majority of their shots with the club are off-target.

4. Using a Lie Board

Impact

Lie boards are a thing of the past. There, I said it. Basing any loft or lie adjustments purely off a lie board is completely useless. On any well struck golf shot, the golf ball has already left the golf club before any significant ground and club interaction has occurred. This means the marks on the bottom of the club tells us next to nothing.

Lie Angle

Above is a great picture from a friend of mine, Errol Helling. He’s the owner of Profectus Golf in Nashville, Tennessee. The photo shows the difference in where two golf clubs point at address: one at 3-degrees upright (pointing left) and one at 2-degrees flat (pointing right). It’s important to remember that the photo shows “static loft.” We are most interested in “dynamic loft” and the face angle at impact because that’s what effects ball flight. Just because we have an iron that is orientated a direction at setup does not mean it will point in the same direction at impact.

5. Looking at Divot Direction and Depth

Recently, this has been a frequent topic of discussion in the golf world. I hate to disagree with one of the greats of our game, Ben Hogan, but the secret is not in the dirt. I can’t say that Hogan was wrong, as his thoughts on the golf swing worked very well for him, but we now know that divot direction and divot depth tell us very little about ball flight. You can hit any kind of golf shot with every kind of divot, so why assume that the divot is going to tell us anything valuable?

Below are some pictures of shots I hit on the range. The divot direction is indicated by the alignment stick (on the left in each photo) that travels directly through the divot. The target line is the alignment stick on the right side of the picture. As you can see, the divots had no correlation to direction or curvature.

Shot #1

Divot 1

Shot #2

Divot 2

Shot #3

Divot 3

Shot #4

Divot 4

If you are trying to determine swing faults or fitting issues by looking at divots, you will be chasing an answer that does not exist. Keep your focus on impact location, face angle, club path, and angle of attack, and you’ll be on your way to better fittings.

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PGA Member and Golf Professional at Biltmore Forest Country Club in Asheville, NC. Former PGA Tour and Regional Representative for TrackMan Golf. Graduate of Campbell University's PGM Program with 12 years of experience in the golf industry. My passion for knowledge and application of instruction in golf is what drives me everyday.

57 Comments

57 Comments

  1. when_is_a_wrench_not_a_wrench

    Aug 27, 2017 at 3:29 pm

    Did anyone notice the main photo shows someone pretending to insert a wrench into a M2 Tour Iron head?

    • Beta

      Aug 27, 2017 at 8:22 pm

      Yeah? So? It’s a Fitting head. They have one of those last year lol so he’s not pretending

  2. SoonerSlim

    Aug 27, 2017 at 11:02 am

    Hunter, very interesting article, but for me it did not go far enough because I’ve never seen and do not understand what the side and spin axis numbers you offer for the divot pictures represent. Unfortunately, you did not go far enough and offer an explanation for them. For example, what’s the difference between + and – spin axis? What does the side number mean? Great article except for the last part.

    thanks, SoonerSlim

    • Hunter Brown

      Aug 27, 2017 at 1:28 pm

      Sooner, thanks for reading and giving your feedback. You are probably right I should have included some definitions about Spin Axis and Side. Coming from that world sometimes I forget not everyone knows the terminology. Spin axis represents which way the golf ball is curving so if positive the ball is curving to the right and if negative it is curving to the left. Side represents how far off of the target line the ball landed. Hope this helps! If you want to learn more about TrackMan Definitions visit the trackman blog.

      • SoonerSlim

        Aug 27, 2017 at 9:34 pm

        Thanks, Hunter

        Never have seen or used a trackman, too old school I guess.

        S

  3. Michael

    Aug 26, 2017 at 11:10 am

    What if your line is straight on the club face but out towards the toe?

  4. Jeffrey

    Aug 26, 2017 at 4:14 am

    Heres an idea. Why don’t we go out with our golf clubs and hit the ball and have some fun and forget about all this numbers/fitting/trackman/drills/etc BS. If you play good, great. If you play bad, there is always next time.

    • emb

      Aug 28, 2017 at 2:49 pm

      ya who cares about shooting your best possible scores, might as well buy your equipment from walmart and play top flites right

  5. Stevegp

    Aug 25, 2017 at 11:50 pm

    Enjoyed the article and subsequent discussion. Getting fitted and hitting a club outdoors always seemed much different–and better–than hitting into a net while indoors.

  6. Guia

    Aug 25, 2017 at 6:38 pm

    I am lost! Seems most of what has been accepted in the past is wrong, or misused.

  7. Marooned

    Aug 25, 2017 at 6:04 pm

    No idea of how the “fitting culture” are in the states. But here in Europe (Sweden) most of this is common sense except your point of the lieboard.

    It is such a great and easy tool and a must have. One thing about lie though that I feel is that many people just hit a couple of shots with an 7-iron and that sets the marknfor the lieangle throughout the set.

    A longer iron such as an 4-iron often needs a more upright lieangle then a 9-iron for example.

    The majority of people a do an lietest with hitting a 4, 7 and 9-iron are hitting it more on the toe with a 4-iron compared to the 9-iron.

    • Bert

      Aug 26, 2017 at 6:23 pm

      Good thoughts – I’ve always just hit a 6 or 7 off the lie board. I’ve measured all my lofts and lies but tomorrow I’ll hit the long irons and short irons off the board and note the results.

  8. Bob

    Aug 25, 2017 at 4:22 pm

    Gee, it seems like there is a lot of disagreement about proper club fitting technique. I have gotten advice about clubs on several occasions but never really had a fitting. One reason is that I have heard so much disagreement about how it should be done and am not aware of any standards or any acknowledged experts (e.g. Ping vs Callaway, etc.). I suppose the best shot might be to work with a pro, who also provides instruction and who will be around to provide guidance after new clubs are purchased or current clubs are adjusted for length, loft, lie, swing weight, grip, etc. The big question is why spend a lot of money, if you don’t know what you are buying?

  9. Rors

    Aug 25, 2017 at 4:15 pm

    Steve Elkington has a video on youtube about dynamic fitting for irons… He marks a ball with a sharpie and that mark imprints on your club… I tried it and its the best…

  10. Ben Jones

    Aug 25, 2017 at 3:24 pm

    Good Lord! How did we survive before technology. Now, I can get some really great clubs perfectly fit for me on that day for $4,000 or more, but if my swing ain’t worth crap and I can’t putt, what good is all this?

  11. Lorne

    Aug 25, 2017 at 3:19 pm

    Clubs have a ‘static’ lie and a ‘dynamic’ lie which is a function of shaft tip ‘droop’. The position of the hands and club butt end changes through release and impact, which will affect the shaft lie.
    The weight and shape of the clubhead will affect dynamic lie because the clubhead CofGs vary the droop characteristics of the shaft. Shaft specs influences dynamic loft as does downswing plane and clubhead speed which can vary as the golfer fatigues during the round.
    So we have how many variables for dynamic lie? 6? 7? 8? 9? More? Less?
    A good fitter can measure several of these lie factors but must also use intuitive knowledge to match the golfer to the optimal shaft and clubhead, and grip too. Good luck.

  12. Tata

    Aug 25, 2017 at 2:41 pm

    In regards to #3.
    I can guarantee you that 9 out of 10 amateurs who can’t hit their driver past 200 yards is solely focused on that aspect. They don’t care about anything else, because they all believe that once their distance is sorted out, that they can then learn to control their ball flight. Which is deadly absolutely true.

  13. Dave

    Aug 25, 2017 at 2:28 pm

    Very interested in this article, yes I understand how you can determine lie angle by using a marker pen on the ball and Callaway use this method a lot with there fitting. We use the marker on the ball when fitting outdoors, but indoors with launch monitor the Marker ruins the white screen we have for our projector and leaves black marks on the screen. Would be interested to know if there are any other ways of determining a correct lie angle without the option of a lie board or marker pen on a ball???

    • Noodler

      Aug 25, 2017 at 8:26 pm

      I temporarily hang a black tarp/net in front of the screen to prevent the marker from being left on the white screen.

    • Hunter Brown

      Aug 25, 2017 at 8:28 pm

      Dave I would suggest always keeping your focus on flight and dispersion. From there if you need to make adjustments to lie angle you can but it shouldn’t be the first thing we go to

      • Noodler

        Aug 26, 2017 at 9:21 am

        Sorry Hunter, but I believe this is misguided advice. Golfers should be fit to their physique, strength, flexibility, etc., not to their swing mechanics. Swing mechanics will change over time (even day to day). Using lie angle adjustment to compensate for swing flaws is not the right approach. Trying to use club fitting to compensate for swing flaws is the 6th biggest mistake in club fitting.

        • Hunter Brown

          Aug 27, 2017 at 9:19 am

          Why can’t it be both? I never said you shouldn’t fit for the human being in front of you. Too much mutual exclusivity in your train of thought.

  14. TexasSnowman

    Aug 25, 2017 at 11:31 am

    Agree with the comments on hitting indoors; I never feel like I hit my best shots. Club Fitting needs some type of standards or certification for competence. Even if you pay for a “tour level” fitting, you really have no idea if the fitter knows what he is doing… I’m not saying take all the ‘art’ out of the process, but it’s really the wild west out there in terms of quality.

  15. Bobalu

    Aug 25, 2017 at 10:50 am

    Hunter- Great points! Fittings need to be done with a competent fitter with Trackman on the range. Period. Good luck finding this.

  16. ADIDAG

    Aug 25, 2017 at 10:36 am

    Looks like to get optimum anything players need to focus on roll

  17. Nack Jicklaus

    Aug 25, 2017 at 9:59 am

    You can get a good idea if your lie angle is correct by drawing a straight line around the circumference of a ball with a sharpie. Sit the ball on the ground with the line pointing straight up and down and with the line also pointing directly where you intend to hit the ball (just like people who line up putts with a line drawn on their ball). Now hit your shot and some of the sharpie line will stick to the face of your club. If the line is perfectly perpendicular to the grooves on your club, then your lie angle is correct. If not, it needs changing one way or the other.

    • Steve

      Aug 25, 2017 at 12:47 pm

      100% spot on. Well done.

    • Hunter Brown

      Aug 25, 2017 at 6:26 pm

      I agree with this however if the line is perpendicular and the golf ball is going as straight as possible for that player then why should we care. My point is we should always focus on ball flight not the extraneous details that sometimes do or do not matter

  18. Sam

    Aug 25, 2017 at 9:56 am

    Lie angle has been a big question mark for me. So what is a better way to determine this other than a lie board? Almost, every ‘fitter’ or club seller I’ve seen, used a lie board, with one exception at DSGoods .. one employee used impact tape and adjusted lie angle until center contact was made .. very strange to me.

    • OGWC

      Aug 25, 2017 at 10:05 am

      Use a dry erase marker and put a vertical line on the ball. This is a simple and effective way to read the lie. When you hit the ball, the line gets transferred to the club face. A straight line up and down on the iron face means the lie is good.

    • Hunter Brown

      Aug 25, 2017 at 6:30 pm

      Dry erase is a decent solution however I would suggest just to focus on ball flight and dispersion. I would never care if a sharpie isn’t perpendicular or a piece of tape on the bottom of the face is telling me the club is “upright”. If a player is getting good results then that’s all that matters on course.

      • Noodler

        Aug 25, 2017 at 8:30 pm

        This only makes sense if you adhere to the idea that you should use lie angle adjustment to change ball flight. Many other factors could be impacting ball flight. Trying to fix ball flight due to other swing flaws via lie angle adjustments is a fool’s folly (IMHO).

  19. KV

    Aug 25, 2017 at 9:49 am

    Help me understand your thoughts on lie boards. You talk about dynamic loft but criticize the lie board. It’s not called a “loft” board it’s a lie board. How else do we adjust lie without knowing where and how the club sole contacts the ground? Get everything else right and have the wrong lie adjustment and you’ve wasted a lot of time.

    • Hunter Brown

      Aug 25, 2017 at 6:32 pm

      Hey KV thanks for reading and your thoughts. I would always start with ball flight and dispersion if this is something you can measure or a pro near you can. Lie board’s tell us nothing about the shot that was just hit so I don’t know why we should care.

      • JN

        Aug 25, 2017 at 7:21 pm

        Although there are better ways to examine dynamic lie over the lie board (e.g. HMT), it definitely is relevant. Regardless of someone’s ball flight, getting them fit so that the dynamic lie is near 0 will improve their consistency and quality of impact. It’s just hard to consistently hit the center of the face when the toe or heel of the club dig into the ground early. The small change in face angle due to a lie change can be always be addressed after the fact. If you need help with a slice, just closing the face during setup with a proper lie angle is better than making impact toe up and getting the face closed from that.

  20. Justin

    Aug 25, 2017 at 8:58 am

    You say not to use a lie board…not to look at divots…. How do you determine proper lie? Cannot do by shot pattern into a net. If you are going to give criticism, provide a solution as well.

    • Jon

      Aug 25, 2017 at 9:19 am

      I couldn’t agree more, Justin. How am I supposed to determine the proper lie angle without the aid of a lie board? I am new at this and am trying to learn how to make the proper adjustments on my own.

    • Nick

      Aug 25, 2017 at 9:48 am

      Trackman

      • Nick W

        Aug 25, 2017 at 11:15 am

        Trackman does not tell lie angles, trackman spits out information regarding ball flight. It does not care if its 10* upright or 2* flat.

    • Matt

      Aug 25, 2017 at 11:15 am

      Take some chalk or marker that will transfer when struck. Draw a straight line on the ball. Put the ball on the ground with the line vertical where you will strike it. Hit the ball. Look at the club face… you’ll have a good idea whether your club is too flat or upright.

    • Hunter Brown

      Aug 25, 2017 at 6:35 pm

      Hey Justin thanks for the input. I would always prefer to do a fitting outside if possible. Even on the course sometimes. If not possible and you are only hitting into a net then hopefully you have availability of TrackMan. If not I would suggest trying to find one. My point of lie boards and divots is that they have no correlation to what the ball is actually doing so why should we care? TrackMan does not specifically spit out a number called lie angle however it does tell us Face Angle at impact and Dynamic loft which would be a result of lie angle. If those numbers are good then you should be ok.

  21. Jon

    Aug 25, 2017 at 8:54 am

    If lie boards are horrid, how am I supposed to determine what lie angle is best suited for me? I am looking for a little more education on this subject as I am just getting started with trying to assemble and adjust my own clubs. Thank you in advance for any and all advice.

    • Greg

      Aug 25, 2017 at 10:15 am

      Draw a vertical line on the ball with a sharpie. Examine the line it leaves on the club face. Adjust until vertical. Google it or search the forums.

    • Hunter Brown

      Aug 25, 2017 at 6:47 pm

      Hey Jon thanks for reading and taking the time to respond. I would rather the focus to be on ball flight and dispersion in a fitting. Also loft and lie adjustments can sometimes be a band aid for a bullet hole as it doesn’t address the root cause of the issue. Not always the case if you are really trying to dial things in with little tweaks but I get scared when people are fit for major lie adjustments. Often I think it actually makes the problem worse. I would work from the ball flight backwards. If thats good then why adjust? If it isn’t then you can make some adjustments of the loft lie but as I said earlier be cautious

      • Loz

        Aug 26, 2017 at 3:44 am

        So as I’m 6′ 4″ provided I can hit an off the shelf club ok I shouldn’t worry about custom fitting? On the Ping scale I come out at 4 degrees upright and plus one inch. I know I can hit an off the shelf club well, but won’t I subconsciously be compensating in my setup and swing. I’m a 4 hcp and have pretty solid fundamentals. Surely I’m going to be catching the toe first on everything, which can’t be a good thing. What would be my start point in your fitting?

  22. Robert Malaussena

    Aug 25, 2017 at 8:52 am

    Get fitted by your local PGA pro on a range.

    • Bert

      Aug 26, 2017 at 7:08 pm

      I’m not sure that’s good information. PGA Pro, good fitting? Maybe find a good PGA professional or golf instructor for lessons.

  23. xjohnx

    Aug 25, 2017 at 8:48 am

    Though some of these mistakes are made only in professional, outdoor fittings, #3 is the biggest thing wrong with the golf industry as a whole. Most people getting “fit” are walking into a sporting goods store or golf shop and comparing a few drivers and looking at the “numbers” on a very one dimensional basis and in a short amount of time. #3 happens just about everywhere just about every time.

  24. Me

    Aug 25, 2017 at 8:47 am

    As a fitter ….

    Irons, I weigh on more ball flight, direction and consistent carry. Ideally on natural turf as opposed to a hard mat. Driver; I agree completely with the writer, then again the golfer has final say, after reviewing the data of what ball flight they “like” . There are some that prefer a lower ball flight period, its often what they feel the most comfortable with- despite the technology and Data. Sergio for example prefers a slightly lower & more boring trajectory. No everyone is like Sergio but there is a fair amount of my customers that prefer a 10 degree launch angle than a say a 12.

    Even tougher to fit is older guys, who have slowly lost distance every year. Who in a subtle attempt of trying to speed up the driver head at impact, resort to lurching ahead of the ball with their hips, body and head, de-lofting the head to a negative attack angle. Rather than neutral or +1, 2, 3 degree attack angle by staying behind the ball.

    good article over all.

  25. Andy

    Aug 25, 2017 at 8:39 am

    I suspect many people do not feel like they are swinging 100% like they normally do with indoor fittings. I am one of those people who feel confined and I also like to have a further away target. We will look back at hitting balls 15 feet into a padded screen as a huge mistake. Hit the clubs on the range and on the course before purchasing. Not many fitters offer this.

    There will come a day when we can swing some tool at a course and capture all the necessary data and the tool will identify the possible clubs to maximize our swing. The possible clubs will include past years and even various cost options. The Fitter model today is like new car salesman. I don’t feel 100% sure that their interest and my interest is fully aligned.

    • Me

      Aug 25, 2017 at 8:52 am

      Andy, that’s not unusual & normal for some. I compare the feeling you have to driving a car. When we do we focus on an object 100-150 feet ahead ( depending on car speed) as opposed to looking just over the hood and have to constantly correct steering of the automobile. In other examples some people feel like they are hitting into heavy fog when being fitted in an indoor simulator. I still do the fitting, but once things are narrowed down, take the club outdoors.

  26. Tom F. Stickney II

    Aug 25, 2017 at 8:34 am

    Good points HB!

  27. Thus

    Aug 25, 2017 at 8:21 am

    Great advice, as a club fitter I recommend all other fitters and even coaches read this… lie boards are horrid and reading divots can create disastrous thoughts

    • Nick W

      Aug 25, 2017 at 11:18 am

      What would you propose for lie angle assessment if you are not using a lie board or reading divot patterns?

      • Loz

        Aug 26, 2017 at 3:26 am

        Yes I’d like to hear this too. I’m 6′ 4″ and am 4 degrees upright on the Ping scale. I currently have 2 degree up 1/2″ long Mizuno from their national UK fitting centre, yes a lie board was used. As I can hit my friends off the rack club straight, probably subconsciously compensating in my setup and swing, then I actually don’t need custom fit clubs. My natural swing is always going to hit slightly toe down and you think there’s nothing wrong with this in the long term?

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Opinion & Analysis

Golfholics Course Review: Spyglass Hill Golf Course

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In this new course review series, Marko and Mike from Golfholics provide their takes on the golf courses they’ve played around the world. The first episode starts with the famed, yet often overlooked Spyglass Hill. Enjoy the video below, and don’t forget to check out more videos from Golfholics on their YouTube page!

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Redkacheek’s DFS Rundown: 2018 CJ Cup

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Wow, what a crazy start to this season! Not only has the cheat sheet and slack chat plays over at the Fantasy Golf Bag been on complete fire, but the new golf betting model has now hit on two outrights and one FRL in back-to-back weeks! We get a much better field this week so definitely plan to keep this heater going here at the CJ Cup this week. Brooks Koepka will be teeing it up for the first time since being named the 2018 POY, along with guys such as Justin Thomas, Jason Day, Paul Casey, Billy Horschel, and our new favorite Sungjae Im. As you can see, this will be a fairly exciting event for a setup as similar as last week’s tournament.

Let’s go ahead and take a look at this course and see if we can pinpoint some key stats to take us to another Big GPP win or at least a couple good choices for an outright win.

The CJ Cup will be played at the Club at Nine Bridges, a 7,196 yard par-72 golf course in South Korea. Although this may appear like a similar course to TPC Kuala Lumpur last week, this one will play quite significantly tougher. As you can see below, in 2017 there were more bogeys than birdies for the week which doesn’t happen much outside of majors. Justin Thomas won last year’s event after shooting 63 in the first round but failed to break 70 the following three days. JT finished at nine under, which tied Marc Leishman, who coincidentally won this last weekend (2019 Fall Swing narrative). So why so tough if it appears so short? Let’s take a look.

So first off, let’s get this out of the way first. These greens are brutal. No joke; these greens were the single most difficult greens to putt on all of last year. Everything from one-putt percentage to 3-putt avoidance, these ranked the No. 1 most difficult on Tour all year. But here’s the problem: We all know putting is the single most variable stat, so using SG:P will tend to lead to a very disappointing pool of players. For example, coming into last year the players ranked Top 10 in SG:P finished 11-33-47-40-28-64-36-26-71-36, respectively. There is a still a stat that helped fine-tune player pools last year that I will recommend this year: my first key stat to consider this week is 3-putt avoidance.

The next section here I will just briefly touch on the driving accuracy and GIR percentage for this course. It is very average for the PGA Tour…that is really all you need to know. Driving accuracy ranked 48th and GIR percentage ranked 38th in 2017. This course is not difficult tee-to-green, plain and simple. I will certainly add the usual SG:T2G this week along with GIR percentage, but this course will favor most guys this week.

So besides putting, why are these scores so poor considering the appearance of an easy course? Well besides putting on these greens, scrambling here is brutal. Scrambling also ranked No. 1 most difficult here last year but again, this is a stat that is extremely tough to see useful trends. I will, however, encourage you to use SG:ARG to help narrow down your player pool more efficiently.

Remember that this segment of the Fall Swing will not yield strokes-gained data, so we must only utilize the traditional stats the PGA Tour keeps. On top of all the micro-scoring stats mentioned above, let’s take a closer look at this course from a macro level. This will be fairly straightforward when building your model. The par 4s here are extremely difficult, so add SG:P4 Scoring to your research (par 3 scoring is also very difficult but sample sizes are usually too small to include each week). Par 5 scoring was difficult as well but there is a better stat we can use than the P4 scoring mentioned above. The final stat we will be using is simply bogey avoidance. This will do a fantastic job of incorporating T2G, scrambling and putting into our model/research.

Overall this course is really an amazing layout but will pose a difficult task for the players. Just like last week, I encourage you to ease into the season by playing light and also primarily playing GPPs.

With all that out of the way, let’s get into my core plays for this week…

Justin Thomas (DK $11,600)

Justin Thomas finally makes the core writeup. After a mediocre finish last week (5th place), he comes to Nine Bridges as the defending champion. Ironically, he beat out Marc Leishman, last week’s winner, in a playoff last year and I think he is going to be the guy to pay up for over $10k. JT won both CIMB Classic and The CJ Cup last year, and I would be very surprised if he doesn’t leave this leg of the Fall Swing (Asia) without a win. There’s a lot going for him outside of his recent form and course history (if that wasn’t enough), he ranks first in both SG:T2G and SG:APP, second in par 4 scoring, eighth in bogey avoidance and finally, surprisingly, 11th in 3-putt avoidance. If you are building only a few lineups this week, I think JT should be in around two-thirds of them.

Byeong-Hun An (DK $8,700)

Mr. Ben An makes the list again! Byeong-Hun An received a lot of praise from both Jacob and myself on the FGB Podcast last week and he did not disappoint with a 13th place finish, and really a strong chance to win going into the weekend. As part of a common theme you will see here, Ben An is the kind of consistent ball-striker to rely on each and every week. On the PGA Tour in the last 50 rounds, he ranks third along with a strong ranking in bogey avoidance (third) and GIR percentage (also third). He did play this event last year, finishing 11th at 4-under par, and if it weren’t for a final round 73 he had a realistic chance for the win! The price on Ben An is getting a little steep but I think we can still get some value out of it this week.

Kyle Stanley (DK $8,200)

Kyle Stanley should be considered a core play almost every week he is under $9K on DraftKings. One of the most elite ball strikers on Tour, ranking ninth in SG:T2G, 11th in SG:APP, sixth in GIR percentage and 14th in par 4 scoring, he sets up for another solid top 20. Last week Kyle finished 13th in Kuala Lumpur and now comes to Nine Bridges where he ended the tournament in 19th place last year. Kyle tends to be very “mediocre” so upside for a top 3 always seems to come sparingly during the season, but you still cannot ignore his skills at this price.

Charles Howell III (DK $7,700)

Charles Howell III is a lock for me this week. Coming off a strong showing last week (T5) but also an 11th-place finish at this event last year, he grades out as one of the strongest values this week at only $7,700. CH3 hadn’t played on the PGA Tour for over a month before appearing at Kuala Lumpur, causing him to fly well under the radar on his way to a solid top five finish. Always known as a superb ball-striker, Howell actually rates out 16th in bogey avoidance and 10th in 3-putt avoidance, both key stats for this golf course. Additionally, CH3 ranks inside the top 20 of both par 4 scoring and GIR percentage. In a no-cut event on a difficult ARG golf course, count on CH3 to gain enough placement points to pay off this solid price tag.

Ian Poulter (DK $7,600)

Ian Poulter may be extremely sneaky this week. We haven’t seen him since the Ryder Cup and most people that play DFS have severe recency bias. Poulter is a grinder, and considering the winning score should only be around 12-under par with lots of opportunities for bogeys, he should keep the wheels on all four days and have a chance on Sunday. One of the most surprising stats for me in my research on Poulter is that he ranks first in 3-putt avoidance, along with some impressive tee-to-green stats where he ranks inside the top 25 of all of my key stats mentioned above. Why is the 3-putt avoidance stat so important? As I noted in the course preview, these were the single most difficult greens to putt on last year with the worst 3-putt percentage. Outside of the key stats, it does seem like this course fits his eye as he finished 15th here last year. Ian Poulter will be another core play but I think he may come in quite under owned from where he probably should.

Joel Dahmen (DK $6,900)

Chalk Dahmen week is upon us and I am going to bite. Dahmen has been a DFS darling this year and last week was no different. Dahmen ended up finishing 26th which was largely due to a poor final round 71, which dropped him 11 spots. Even with that poor finish he was able to pay off his sub-$7K price tag, which is where we find him again this week. Dahmen ranks top 10 in this field in several key stats, including: SG:T2G, SG:APP, and bogey avoidance. If you need some salary savings but unsure about anyone under $7K, Dahmen should be your first look this week.

Also consider

Brooks Koepka
Jason Day
Marc Leishman
Paul Casey
Ryan Moore
Sungjae Im
Kevin Tway

Good luck this week everyone!

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Mondays Off: Bermuda vs. Bent grass, How to chip when into the grain

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How do you chip into the grain off of Bermuda grass without chunking the ball? Club pro Steve Westphal explains how to best handle the situation. Also, Westphal and Editor Andrew Tursky give advice on how to play in qualifiers or PAT (players assessment test) events, and they tell a few stories of their own.

Check out the full podcast on SoundCloud below, or click here to listen on iTunes!

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