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PGA Tour Players With Surprisingly Average Clubs

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I’m just as guilty as the rest of you guys. All those WITB posts come up each week at the tournaments and I comb through looking at all the eye candy. Those prototype driving irons, custom weld-neck putters, and exotic stamped wedges get all the heart-eye emojis flowing, don’t they? What I find most interesting is not the Porsches, however, but the Pintos.

These guys play golf for a living. Dropping $5,000 on a custom putter means nothing to them in the long run. Just shaving one stroke off their week’s showing can net 10 times that much or more in some cases. But if and when you find something that suits you perfectly, smart people don’t mess with it.

Steve Stricker’s Putter

I know Steve was sporting a Cameron at the PGA Championship last week, but he’s done that before on some rare occasions and went back to old reliable. This “jalopy” is one of my favorites for two reasons:

  1. I’m on a bit of a putting kick at the moment
  2. Steve Stricker is widely regarded as one of the best putters on tour.

The longtime Titleist-staffer could probably have any Scotty Cameron he wanted, but he’s rocking the old-school, Odyssey White Hot #2 with loads of lead tape on the bottom. You can currently pick up one of these bad boys for under $50 easily on the used market, but can you roll it like Steve? Doubtful. Dude is fourth on tour (FOURTH!) in total putting and makes over 90 percent of his putts (452 for 500) inside 10 feet. That’s insane. See Stricker’s Full WITB.

Hideki Matsuyama’s Driver

Man, that thing is roached. If I showed up to my local course with that bad boy, it’d probably draw quite the reaction. I could probably hear everyone thinking, “Oh, I got this dude, no problem.” If I could rock it half as good as Hideki (he’s 22nd on tour in driving distance at 304.3 yards and 11th in strokes gained off the tee), I’d be laughing all the way to the bank, too… even if I did pause long enough for a cigarette at the top of my backswing… See Matsuyama’s Full WITB.

Henrik Stenson’s 3 wood

Ah, the Callaway Diablo Octane…released in late 2010. By tour standards, it belongs in the Smithsonian at this point. If it helps you win the Open Championship, an Olympic silver medal, and become the European Tour player of the year all in the same year, though, it stays in the bag until you feel compelled to change it. Period. See Stenson’s Full WITB.

Most of Padraig Harrington’s Bag

The 3-time major winner has quite the quiver doesn’t he? At least in this 2016 version.  He features a mostly Wilson Staff bag, including a putter that can currently be had for 100 bones brand new. Sprinkle in a TaylorMade AeroBurner driver and Ping Eye 2 Gorge wedge and you may not have a masterpiece in the eyes of a lot of GolfWRXers, but if it pays the bills, who cares? See Harrington’s Full WITB.

What are your favorite WITBs? Any long-standing clubs in your bag that you never see yourself parting with? Comment below, but the first person who says, “It’s not the arrow” loses 1,000 points.

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Peter Schmitt is an avid golfer trying to get better every day, the definition of which changes relatively frequently. He believes that first and foremost, golf should be an enjoyable experience. Always. Peter is a former Marine and a full-time mechanical engineer (outside of the golf industry). He lives in Lexington, KY with his wife and two young kids. "What other people may find in poetry or art museums, I find in the flight of a good drive." -Arnold Palmer

56 Comments

56 Comments

  1. mb

    Nov 27, 2018 at 10:09 pm

    I just stumbled on this write up, classic how much money & a career has Steve Stricker had with this putter? that’s selling for $30 on ebay love-it.

  2. Anderson Dave

    Aug 13, 2018 at 9:13 pm

    I still have my Tour Exotics CB2 hybrids, I think I bought them used in 2009. I have tried to replace them, they don’t look great, but I can’t find anything that works better. I have a friend that is still playing his Australian Blade from at least 20 years ago. He has nearly worn them out and there is nothing out there like them. If it ain’t broke don’t fix it…

  3. Tom

    Jul 17, 2018 at 12:17 pm

    Manufacturers have pushed to the USGA’s performance limits, nothing of any improved significance is possible….just new shiny stuff!

  4. Peter Schmitt

    Aug 21, 2017 at 11:32 am

    As if on cue, Henrik rides the mighty Diablo 3 wood to victory at the Wyndham the same week this gets posted. The best part? He didn’t even carry a driver. Boom!

  5. Indian

    Aug 21, 2017 at 3:31 am

    It’s not the arrow it’s the….oh, whoops.

  6. TG

    Aug 19, 2017 at 7:45 pm

    They don’t pay for clubs though so why would they “drop” 5000 on a putter…

  7. Ryan

    Aug 19, 2017 at 7:07 pm

    Adam Scott’s irons are still pretty old. Titleist 680 MB’s from 2005. If his lofts are standard, it’s even crazier. PW at 48*!! That’s pretty awesome to me

  8. Jesper Pickering

    Aug 19, 2017 at 1:49 pm

    Sometimes the pure joy of a shiny new toy is all it takes for me to buy new gear. Will it perform better? Properly not, just like my new pair of jeans aren’t better than the old ones. BUT they look and feel danm good…until a cooler pair is on display in the shop window ????

  9. Mark

    Aug 19, 2017 at 9:13 am

    Sold a Scottsdale answer years ago for $1,900. Read here recently that they now bring $120. I have one in the garage. And what about the Wilson 8802, armour img5, geo low of nicklaus, faldos taylomade viii?

  10. BIG STU

    Aug 19, 2017 at 2:21 am

    I have been saying it for years and most folks do not listen. BTW the model of Odyssey Stricker uses is a copy of a old Ping Zing 2. What would surprise most is the age of the equipment used on the Champion’s Tour. I have always been of the addage of using what works no matter the age or brand

  11. Elf

    Aug 18, 2017 at 11:48 pm

    Cool aicle. I’ve often assumed Odyssey (etc) replaced inserts for the pros though they tell we mortals it isn’t possible for them to do. Stricker’s insert looks way too clean (compared to the rest of the club) to be original IMO.

  12. rex235

    Aug 18, 2017 at 10:46 pm

    Bobby Nichols won the Dow Jones Open ($60K) with a $5 putter.
    Never saw anything in Bob Charles bag other than a Bullseye.
    Bullseyes have won Majors in 5 different decades. Even Nicklaus used one for a US Open win.
    Nicklaus’ 3 wood was in his bag for 30+years.
    Oldest club in my bag? -27 years 19 Degree Taylor Made Tour Cleek II.
    Strickers putter epitomizes the adage “If it ain’t broke….”

  13. Dude

    Aug 18, 2017 at 10:10 pm

    What about Rory McIlroy’s Nike irons. H he should go back to them since he won with them.

  14. Iman

    Aug 18, 2017 at 8:25 pm

    Don’t forget Adam Scott with his 690.MB iron set. By tour standards, it belongs to his grand-grandfather.

  15. Walt

    Aug 18, 2017 at 5:00 pm

    Looking more closely at the sole of the White Hot and that’s gotta be lead tape plastered to the sole.
    Also, the plastic face insert of his old putter has got to be slightly worn on the sweet spot making it slightly concave-ish and cups the ball, ya think?

    • Todd

      Aug 19, 2017 at 8:41 pm

      FYI lead is about 50% heavier than stainless steel, so 2 strips of lead is equal to 3 strips of equivalent steel. So next time you see lead tape you will know.

  16. Walt

    Aug 18, 2017 at 4:55 pm

    Real golfers don’t change their equipment when the OEMs bring out their ‘new’ models. It’s because they don’t find fault in their equipment. The challenge is within their body, mind and the golf course. That’s how real golf is played.

    • Caddy

      Aug 18, 2017 at 5:59 pm

      Nailed it.

      • Walt

        Aug 18, 2017 at 6:16 pm

        And if a golfer continuously doubts his equipment they cannot swing with confidence.
        I’ve golfed with people who cursed their equipment when they screw up and when it’s obvious the problem is within themselves. They refuse to see it or admit it.
        Such people can never be wrong because in their minds they are perfect and successful men. They cannot face their failure and direct their anger against their clubs to hide from their incompetence.
        I jokingly told one such golfer that he’s not good enough to blame his clubs, and he got very angry at me. Never again because these types are dangerous.

        • Vic

          Aug 18, 2017 at 10:50 pm

          This is GolfWRX for c’sake man not psych 101.

          • Walt

            Aug 19, 2017 at 1:01 pm

            Just sharing my experiences and my conclusions about some bad golfers and their club hate. I love my clubs because they behave exactly as I expect them to perform. What’s your problem?

          • calc

            Jun 29, 2018 at 7:16 pm

            Vic is a golffing psychopath who sees himself in Walt’s analysis.

            • Benny

              Jul 18, 2018 at 3:54 pm

              It’s really simple. If you lose confidence in a club you get a little bit of doubt. When it comes to golf that little doubt will fester and grow. Yeah we all know it’s in our heads and not the arrow Walt. But even the best in the world don’t change because of the exact same doubt bud. A new club will not give them that comfort.
              It’s nice to get new sneakers sometimes or splurge to make ourselves feel good. If we can pretend only for a moment a Tour Player used that Tour Issued putter the gain in confidence can always help the game. Especially for us “incompetent” kind.

  17. Ben Jones

    Aug 18, 2017 at 3:49 pm

    Still going back to the Bullseye to fix my putting woes.

    • Walt

      Aug 19, 2017 at 1:03 pm

      Bullseye is a pure putter uncompensated for an inconsistent putting stroke and bad impact. It’s a test of your putting stroke control. All the other fancy putters are intended for golfers who want their putter to do the putting for them.

  18. peter collins

    Aug 18, 2017 at 3:04 pm

    I am after a Odyssey Black Series i #7 Putter (2008)
    I tried the club pro’s and putted the best i have for a long time.
    Has a forum member got one for sale, or know where i can get one from please.

  19. Don

    Aug 18, 2017 at 2:35 pm

    Corey Pavin still uses a bronze bull’s eye. Makes Strick’s Odyssey just a youngster. Love to know Corey’s putting average. He’s one of the shortest drivers on tour and can still compete.

    • Peter Schmitt

      Aug 18, 2017 at 2:45 pm

      Oh man. I used to idolize Corey Pavin back in the day. I thought I was so cool when I bought a set of Cleveland VAS irons!

      • Dave C

        Aug 18, 2017 at 10:58 pm

        Did those not look like hossle rocket makers?

  20. Ben Jones

    Aug 18, 2017 at 2:02 pm

    Lee Trevino winning the 74 PGA with a 15 year-old blade putter he found in some lady’s attic. Priceless! Just love the old clubs that keep us going. I still game a Fast 10 3-wood. Its the shaft and the pure looking head. Old Adams stuff is great.

  21. George Walker

    Aug 18, 2017 at 1:50 pm

    Where is Brandt Snedeker’s putter? I have one similar to his and I believe it’s my last.

    • Peter Schmitt

      Aug 18, 2017 at 2:47 pm

      Sned’s and G-Mac’s putters were both on my short list. Ultimately I went with Steve’s because he’s just such a good putter. But yeah, those are both worthy contenders…

    • Rossie

      Aug 19, 2017 at 1:57 am

      Don’t forget Ryan Palmer either. He gamed an old Odyssey dual force rossie ii up until recent. He also still uses ap2 710’s.

      • Josh D

        Jul 2, 2018 at 7:15 pm

        Doesn’t Steve use the ap2 710’s or 712’s?

  22. TeeBone

    Aug 18, 2017 at 12:32 pm

    As long as Tour players are paid to play equipment, we’ll never know what they would use if they were free to choose whatever they feel is best. But at the end of the day, “it ain’t the clubs”.

  23. Rogerinnz

    Aug 18, 2017 at 12:16 pm

    Nothing wrong with a Great Odyssey Putter.
    Just bought a set of Eye 2 irons this week.
    Flashy vs Functional.
    I recall a Futura thrown into a pond… not an Odyssey…

  24. larrybud

    Aug 18, 2017 at 12:00 pm

    There’s just very little wiggle room for technological enhancements. Drivers are maxed at .860 COR, and balls are maxed (which is why pga driving average hasn’t moved in a dozen years).

    That’s why we see pretty new colors and other things such as adjustable clubs (which IS a great innovation, but mostly for fitters rather than any real improvements which will make a player shoot a lower score.

    In a way, club fitting has hurt the new market. Once you get fitted for a driver, there’s really no reason to get a new one unless the club wears out or your swing changes significantly enough warrant a new fitting. The marketing hype of “longer off the tee” is just that.

  25. OhioGolfDude

    Aug 18, 2017 at 11:44 am

    Fun article Peter! Don’t forget the history of Brandt Snedeker’s bag. Not sure what he’s gaming now, but I know last year at the AT&T Classic Pebble Beach he still had the old TM SuperFast in the bag along with a really old Odyssey Rossie. As for Hideki’s driver, yeah it’s pretty baked but definitely still a viable option. A lot of Cally staffers used the GBB until Epic came out. It only takes a quick view of the WITB section to see some older hangovers, like former Nike staffer Kyle Stanley sticking with an old Covert 5 wood in an otherwise all Titleist setup.

  26. Steven Crowder

    Aug 18, 2017 at 11:03 am

    Nothing wrong with the Aeroburner driver. It’s only 2 years old. I like it better than my 2017 M2.

  27. xjohnx

    Aug 18, 2017 at 10:27 am

    Definitely looks like the entire bottom of Hideki’s GBB was colored with a Sharpie. Wondering if that was something Srixon recommended or demanded or if he’s just expressing himself through art.

  28. Johnnylongballz

    Aug 18, 2017 at 10:13 am

    When I find the putter that I make 492 out of 500 from inside 5 feet I will never change putters again. Until then ……. well, you know.

  29. Holly Sonders

    Aug 18, 2017 at 9:44 am

    Exactly when has a tour pro ever paid $5k for a custom putter?

    • Peter Schmitt

      Aug 18, 2017 at 10:41 am

      5k was a purposely outlandish number. I wasn’t trying to say that they DO spend that much. Frankly I have no idea how much they spend and I don’t need to. I’m saying that even if they DID spend a stupid amount of dough on a club that takes one or two strokes off their rounds, it’s still a big time net positive for them. When guys stick with clubs that are over ~3 years old or so (normal for us but ancient for a tour pro), there’s a reason…

      • Barry

        Aug 19, 2017 at 9:59 am

        What the heck is wrong with you? Would you ever say something like that in real life?

        • Steven Crowder

          Aug 19, 2017 at 2:18 pm

          I would. Don’t know about the other guy.

        • Bester

          Aug 19, 2017 at 4:29 pm

          Golf aint real life it’s better.

    • Jim McIntosh

      Aug 20, 2017 at 1:48 pm

      Can you see your feet when you are putting?

  30. JayG

    Aug 18, 2017 at 9:40 am

    IF IT AIN’T BROKE, DON’T FIX IT

    • ActualFacts

      Aug 18, 2017 at 10:33 am

      Exactly!!! Step down to the developmental professional golf tours and I’m sure you’ll see a lot more “surprisingly average” bags. The OEMs gear their marketing strategies towards folks like us (WRX’ers) who crave the latest and greatest by keeping their endorsees fitted and filmed with all of the new-new. Those same your pros could go out with equipment that’s 20 years old and perform just as well. It’s not the equipment. Those guys and gals really are that good.

    • Bester

      Aug 19, 2017 at 4:28 pm

      My clubs I bought last year are broke now cause they don’t hit the ball straight and far anymore. Whats the matter with those useless clubs.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open betting preview

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As the Florida swing comes to an end, the PGA Tour makes its way to Houston to play the Texas Children’s Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course.

This will be the fourth year that Memorial Park Golf Course will serve as the tournament host. The event did not take place in 2023, but the course hosted the event in 2020, 2021 and 2022.

Memorial Park is a par-70 layout measuring 7,432 yards and features Bermudagrass greens. Historically, the main defense for the course has been thick rough along the fairways and tightly mown runoff areas around the greens. Memorial Park has a unique setup that features three Par 5’s and five Par 3’s.

The field will consist of 132 players, with the top 65 and ties making the cut. There are some big names making the trip to Houston, including Scottie Scheffler, Wyndham Clark, Tony Finau, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala.

Past Winners at Memorial Park

  • 2022: Tony Finau (-16)
  • 2021: Jason Kokrak (-10)
  • 2020: Carlos Ortiz (-13)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Memorial Park

Let’s take a look at several metrics for Memorial Park to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds:

Strokes Gained: Approach

Memorial Park is a pretty tough golf course. Golfers are penalized for missing greens and face some difficult up and downs to save par. Approach will be key.

Total Strokes Gained: Approach per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.30)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.26)
  3. Keith Mitchell (+0.97) 
  4. Tony Finau (+0.92)
  5. Jake Knapp (+0.84)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Memorial Park is a long golf course with rough that can be penal. Therefore, a combination of distance and accuracy is the best metric.

Total Strokes Gained: Off the Tee per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+0.94)
  2. Kevin Dougherty (+0.93)
  3. Cameron Champ (+0.86)
  4. Rafael Campos (+0.84)
  5. Si Woo Kim (+0.70)

Strokes Gained Putting: Bermudagrass + Fast

The Bermudagrass greens played fairly fast the past few years in Houston. Jason Kokrak gained 8.7 strokes putting on his way to victory in 2021 and Tony Finau gained in 7.8 in 2022.

Total Strokes Gained Putting (Bermudagrass) per round past 24 rounds (min. 8 rounds):

  1. Adam Svensson (+1.27)
  2. Harry Hall (+1.01)
  3. Martin Trainer (+0.94)
  4. Taylor Montgomery (+0.88)
  5. S.H. Kim (+0.86)

Strokes Gained: Around the Green

With firm and undulating putting surfaces, holding the green on approach shots may prove to be a challenge. Memorial Park has many tightly mowed runoff areas, so golfers will have challenging up-and-down’s around the greens. Carlos Ortiz gained 5.7 strokes around the green on the way to victory in 2020.

Total Strokes Gained: Around the Green per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Mackenzie Hughes (+0.76)
  2. S.H. Kim (+0.68)
  3. Scottie Scheffler (+0.64)
  4. Jorge Campillo (+0.62)
  5. Jason Day (+0.60)

Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult

Memorial Park is a long and difficult golf course. This statistic will incorporate players who’ve had success on these types of tracks in the past. 

Total Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.45)
  2. Ben Griffin (+1.75)
  3. Will Zalatoris (+1.73)
  4. Ben Taylor (+1.53)
  5. Tony Finau (+1.42)

Course History

Here are the players who have performed the most consistently at Memorial Park. 

Strokes Gained Total at Memorial Park past 12 rounds:

  1. Tyson Alexander (+3.65)
  2. Ben Taylor (+3.40)
  3. Tony Finau (+2.37)
  4. Joel Dahmen (+2.25)
  5. Patton Kizzire (+2.16)

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (24%) SG: OTT (24%); SG: Putting Bermudagrass/Fast (13%); SG: Long and Difficult (13%); SG: ARG (13%) and Course History (13%)

  1. Scottie Scheffler
  2. Wyndham Clark
  3. Tony Finau
  4. Joel Dahmen
  5. Stephan Jaeger 
  6. Aaron Rai
  7. Sahith Theegala
  8. Keith Mitchell 
  9. Jhonnatan Vegas
  10. Jason Day
  11. Kurt Kitayama
  12. Alex Noren
  13. Will Zalatoris
  14. Si Woo Kim
  15. Adam Long

2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open Picks

Will Zalatoris +2000 (Caesars)

Scottie Scheffler will undoubtedly be difficult to beat this week, so I’m starting my card with someone who I believe has the talent to beat him if he doesn’t have his best stuff.

Will Zalatoris missed the cut at the PLAYERS, but still managed to gain strokes on approach while doing so. In an unpredictable event with extreme variance, I don’t believe it would be wise to discount Zalatoris based on that performance. Prior to The PLAYERS, the 27-year-old finished T13, T2 and T4 in his previous three starts.

Zalatoris plays his best golf on long and difficult golf courses. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the category, but the eye test also tells a similar story. He’s contended at major championships and elevated events in the best of fields with tough scoring conditions.  The Texas resident should be a perfect fit at Memorial Park Golf Club.

Alex Noren +4500 (FanDuel)

Alex Noren has been quietly playing some of his best golf of the last half decade this season. The 41-year-old is coming off back-to-back top-20 finishes in Florida including a T9 at The PLAYERS in his most recent start.

In his past 24 rounds, Noren ranks 21st in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 30th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, 25th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses and 21st in Strokes Gained: Putting on fast Bermudagrass greens.

In addition to his strong recent play, the Swede also has played well at Memorial Park. In 2022, Noren finished T4 at the event, gaining 2.2 strokes off the tee and 7.0 strokes on approach for the week. In his two starts at the course, he’s gained an average of .6 strokes per round on the field, indicating he is comfortable on these greens.

Noren has been due for a win for what feels like an eternity, but Memorial Park may be the course that suits him well enough for him to finally get his elusive first PGA Tour victory.

Mackenzie Hughes +8000 (FanDuel)

Mackenzie Hughes found himself deep into contention at last week’s Valspar Championship before faltering late and finishing in a tie for 3rd place. While he would have loved to win the event, it’s hard to see the performance as anything other than an overwhelming positive sign for the Canadian.

Hughes has played great golf at Memorial Park in the past. He finished T7 in 2020, T29 in 2021 and T16 in 2022. The course fit seems to be quite strong for Hughes. He’s added distance off the tee in the past year or and ranks 8th in the field for apex height, which will be a key factor when hitting into Memorial Park’s elevated greens with steep run-off areas.

In his past 24 rounds, Hughes is the best player in the field in Strokes Gained: Around the Greens. The ability to scramble at this course will be extremely important. I believe Hughes can build off of his strong finish last week and contend once again to cement himself as a President’s Cup consideration.

Akshay Bhatia +8000 (FanDuel)

Akshay Bhatia played well last week at the Valspar and seemed to be in total control of his golf ball. He finished in a tie for 17th and shot an impressive -3 on a difficult Sunday. After struggling Thursday, Akshay shot 68-70-68 in his next three rounds.

Thus far, Bhatia has played better at easier courses, but his success at Copperhead may be due to his game maturing. The 22-year-old has enormous potential and the raw talent to be one of the best players in the world when he figures it all out.

Bhatia is a high upside play with superstar qualities and may just take the leap forward to the next stage of his career in the coming months.

Cameron Champ +12000 (FanDuel)

Cameron Champ is a player I often target in the outright betting market due to his “boom-or-bust” nature. It’s hard to think of a player in recent history with three PGA Tour wins who’s been as inconsistent as Champ has over the course of his career.

Despite the erratic play, Cam Champ simply knows how to win. He’s won in 2018, 2019 and 2021, so I feel he’s due for a win at some point this season. The former Texas A&M product should be comfortable in Texas and last week he showed us that his game is in a pretty decent spot.

Over his past 24 rounds, Champ ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 30th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses. Given his ability to spike at any given time, Memorial Park is a good golf course to target Champ on at triple digit odds.

Robert MacIntyre +12000 (FanDuel)

The challenge this week is finding players who can possibly beat Scottie Scheffler while also not dumping an enormous amount of money into an event that has a player at the top that looks extremely dangerous. Enter McIntyre, who’s another boom-or-bust type player who has the ceiling to compete with anyone when his game is clicking on all cylinders.

In his past 24 rounds, MacIntyre ranks 16th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 17th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and 10th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses.

MacIntyre’s PGA Tour season has gotten off to a slow start, but he finished T6 in Mexico, which is a course where players will hit driver on the majority of their tee shots, which is what we will see at Memorial Park. Texas can also get quite windy, which should suit MacIntyre. Last July, the Scot went toe to toe with Rory McIlroy at the Scottish Open before a narrow defeat. It would take a similar heroic effort to compete with Scheffler this year in Houston.

Ryan Moore +15000 (FanDuel)

Ryan Moore’s iron play has been absolutely unconscious over his past few starts. At The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field, he gained 6.1 strokes on approach and last week at Copperhead, he gained 9.0 strokes on approach.

It’s been a rough handful of years on Tour for the 41-year-old, but he is still a five-time winner on the PGA Tour who’s young enough for a career resurgence. Moore has chronic deterioration in a costovertebral joint that connects the rib to the spine, but has been getting more consistent of late, which is hopefully a sign that he is getting healthy.

Veterans have been contending in 2024 and I believe taking a flier on a proven Tour play who’s shown signs of life is a wise move at Memorial Park.

 

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Why the race to get better at golf might be doing more harm than good

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B.F. Skinner was one of the most important psychologists of the 20th century, developing the foundation of the development of reinforcement, and in doing so, creating the concept of behaviorism. In simple terms, this means that we are conditioned by our habits. In practical terms, it explains the divide between the few and far between elite instructors and college coaches.

To understand the application, let’s quickly review one of B.F. Skinner’s most important experiments; superstitions in the formation of behavior by pigeons. In this experiment, food was dispensed to pigeons at random intervals. Soon, according to Skinner, the pigeons began to associate whatever action they were doing at the time of the food being dispensed. According to Skinner, this conditioned that response and soon, they simply haphazardly repeated the action, failing to distinguish between cause and correlation (and in the meantime, looking really funny!).

Now, this is simply the best way to describe the actions of most every women’s college golf coach and too many instructors in America. They see something work, get positive feedback and then become conditioned to give the feedback, more and more, regardless of if it works (this is also why tips from your buddies never work!).

Go to a college event, particularly a women’s one, and you will see coaches running all over the place. Like the pigeons in the experiment, they have been conditioned into a codependent relationship with their players in which they believe their words and actions, can transform a round of golf. It is simply hilarious while being equally perturbing

In junior golf, it’s everywhere. Junior golf academies make a living selling parents that a hysterical coach and over-coaching are essential ingredients in your child’s success.

Let’s be clear, no one of any intellect has any real interest in golf — because it’s not that interesting. The people left, including most coaches and instructors, carve out a small fiefdom, usually on the corner of the range, where they use the illusion of competency to pray on people. In simple terms, they baffle people with the bullshit of pseudo-science that they can make you better, after just one more lesson.

The reality is that life is an impromptu game. The world of golf, business, and school have a message that the goal is being right. This, of course, is bad advice, being right in your own mind is easy, trying to push your ideas on others is hard. As a result, it is not surprising that the divorce rate among golf professionals and their instructors is 100 percent. The transfer rate among college players continues to soar, and too many courses have a guy peddling nefarious science to good people. In fact, we do at my course!

The question is, what impact does all this have on college-age and younger kids? At this point, we honestly don’t know. However, I am going to go out on a limb and say it isn’t good.

Soren Kierkegaard once quipped “I saw it for what it is, and I laughed.” The actions of most coaches and instructors in America are laughable. The problem is that I am not laughing because they are doing damage to kids, as well as driving good people away from this game.

The fact is that golfers don’t need more tips, secrets, or lessons. They need to be presented with a better understanding of the key elements of golf. With this understanding, they can then start to frame which information makes sense and what doesn’t. This will emancipate them and allow them to take charge of their own development.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Valspar Championship betting preview: Elite ballstrikers to thrive at Copperhead

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The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2024 Valspar Championship.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermudagrass greens overseeded with POA. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 16, 17 and 18 — also known as the “Snake Pit” — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.

The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. The field this week is solid and is a major improvement over last year’s field that felt the impact of players skipping due to a handful of “signature events” in a short span of time. 

Past Winners at Valspar Championship

  • 2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
  • 2022: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
  • 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
  • 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
  • 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
  • 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Copperhead

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can’t be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)

  1. Tony Finau (+.90)
  2. Nick Taylor (+.81)
  3. Justin Thomas (+.77)
  4. Greyson Sigg (+.69)
  5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+.67)

2. Good Drive %

The long hitters can be a bit limited here due to the tree-lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important, but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.

Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+91.3%) 
  2. Zach Johnson (+91.1%)
  3. Sam Ryder (+90.5%)
  4. Ryan Moore (+90.4%)
  5. Aaron Rai (+89.7%)

3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1.32)
  2. Keith Mitchell (+1.29)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.24)
  4. Cameron Young (+1.17) 
  5. Doug Ghim (+.95)

4. Bogey Avoidance

With the conditions likely to be difficult, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, oftentimes the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.

Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.

Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+9.0)
  2. Xander Schauffele (+9.3)
  3. Austin Cook (+9.7) 
  4. Chesson Hadley (+10.0)
  5. Greyson Sigg (+10.2)

5. Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions

Conditions will be tough this week at Copperhead. I am looking for golfers who can rise to the occasion if the course plays as difficult as it has in the past.

Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1,71) 
  2. Min Woo Lee (+1.39)
  3. Cameron Young (+1.27)
  4. Jordan Spieth (+1.08)
  5. Justin Suh (+.94)

6. Course History

That statistic will tell us which players have played well at Copperhead in the past.

Course History Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+3.75) 
  2. Sam Burns (+2.49)
  3. Davis Riley (+2.33)
  4. Matt NeSmith (+2.22)
  5. Jordan Spieth (+2.04)

The Valspar Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Good Drive % (15%), SG: BS (20%), Bogeys Avoided (13%), Course History (13%) Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions (12%).

  1. Xander Schauffele
  2. Doug Ghim
  3. Victor Perez
  4. Greyson Sigg
  5. Ryan Moore
  6. Tony Finau
  7. Justin Thomas
  8. Sam Ryder
  9. Sam Burns
  10. Lucas Glover

2024 Valspar Championship Picks

Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)

Justin Thomas will be disappointed with his finish at last week’s PLAYERS Championship, as the past champion missed the cut despite being in some decent form heading into the event. Despite the missed cut, JT hit the ball really well. In his two rounds, the two-time major champion led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach per round.

Thomas has been up and down this season. He’s missed the cut in two “signature events” but also has finishes of T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T6 at the Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am and T3 at the American Express. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in the field.

Thomas loves Copperhead. In his last three tries at the course, he’s finished T13, T3 and T10. Thomas would have loved to get a win at a big event early in the season, but avoidable mistakes and a balky putter have cost him dearly. I believe a trip to a course he loves in a field he should be able to capitalize on is the right recipe for JT to right the ship.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (FanDuel)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is playing spectacular golf in the 2024 season. He finished 2nd at the American Express, T20 at Pebble Beach and T24 at the Genesis Invitational before finishing T13 at last week’s PLAYERS Championship.

In his past 24 rounds, the South African ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 26th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. Bezuidenhout managed to work his way around TPC Sawgrass last week with minimal damage. He only made five bogeys in the entire week, which is a great sign heading into a difficult Copperhead this week.

Bezuidenhout is winless in his PGA Tour career, but certainly has the talent to win on Tour. His recent iron play tells me that this week could be a breakthrough for the 35-year-old who has eyes on the President’s Cup.

Doug Ghim +8000 (FanDuel)

Doug Ghim has finished in the top-16 of his past five starts. Most recently, Ghim finished T16 at The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field.

In his past 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 5th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. In terms of his fit for Copperhead, the 27-year-old ranks 12th in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions, making him a great fit for the course.

Ghim has yet to win on Tour, but at one point he was the top ranked Amateur golfer in the world and played in the 2017 Arnold Palmer Cup and 2017 Walker Cup. He then won the Ben Hogan award for the best male college golfer in 2018. He certainly has the talent, and there are signals aplenty that his talent in ready to take him to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour.

Sepp Straka +8000 (BetRivers)

Sepp Straka is a player who’s shown he has the type of game that can translate to a difficult Florida golf course. The former Presidents Cup participant won the 2022 Honda Classic in tough conditions and should thrive with a similar test at Copperhead.

It’s been a slow 2024 for Straka, but his performance last week at the PLAYERS Championship surely provides some optimism. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach as well as 1.88 strokes off the tee. The tee-to-green game Straka showed on a course with plenty of danger demonstrates that he can stay in control of his golf ball this week.

It’s possible that the strong performance last week was an outlier, but I’m willing to bet on a proven winner in a weaker field at a great number.

Victor Perez +12000 (FanDuel)

Victor Perez is no stranger to success in professional golf. The Frenchman has three DP World Tour wins including a Rolex Series event. He won the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, as well as the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which are some big events.

Perez earned his PGA Tour card this season and enters the week playing some fantastic golf. He finished in a tie for 16th in Florida at the Cognizant Classic and then tied for third in his most recent start at the Puerto Rico Open.

In his past 24 rounds in the field, Perez ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 1oth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Good Drive % and 15th in Bogey Avoidance.

Perez comes in as a perfect fit for Copperhead and offers serious value at triple-digit odds.

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