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Is Rory too jacked for his own good? A definitive answer

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Most men would kill — but not hit the gym — to have Rory McIlroy’s physique. Since he burst onto the golf scene nearly a decade ago with a mediocre build, the Northern Irishman has transformed his body into one worthy of a Men’s Health Magazine cover.

One thing Rory didn’t shed, however, were his critics.

Several members of the golf media have recently voiced their pointed opinions about Rory’s beefed up body. Golf Channel’s Brandel Chamblee went public with his worries early in 2016, saying “it does give me a little concern when I see the extensive weightlifting that Rory is doing in the gym.”

McIlroy famously shrugged off Chamblee with this unforgettable response:

NBC golf analyst Johnny Miller joined the attack during the 2016 British Open. While explaining why Rory hasn’t won more majors (he’s stuck at a lowly four, double Miller’s career total if anybody’s counting).

“I think he overdid the weight room,” Miller said. “I don’t think that helped him at all. Same thing with Tiger Woods. You just get carried away with wearing the tight shirts and showing off their muscles.” 

Golf Magazine columnist Alan Shipnuck also has an opinion on the matter, recently firing off this tweet regarding the muscle madness on Tour:

If you didn’t already know who Rory McIlroy is before reading this, based on these criticisms, you might assume he’s a washed-up meathead who can’t put a coordinated swing on a golf ball. And like Chamblee, Miller, and Shipnuck, you’d be dead wrong.

Despite the fact that his major championship “slump” sits at nine events without a win heading into the 2017 U.S. Open, and a nagging rib injury that has kept him on the sidelines for much of the year, Rory holds the No. 2 spot in the Official World Golf Rankings. How can this be, you ask, given Rory’s dedication to the gym? Golf fitness expert Carolina Romero, the woman behind the social media persona the Fit Golfer Girl, uses a simple formula to explain.

“When we think about the ability to hit the ball and generate swing speed, force equals mass times acceleration,” she says. “When Rory was tiny … he didn’t really have a lot of mass, he had to accelerate his little body a lot,” Romero told my At The Turn podcast, referring to McIlroy’s physique when he was noticeably less muscular toward the beginning of his professional career.

“This was actually hurting his lower back,” she said. “This was not exactly good for longevity. If he’s going to continue to play for many, many years … he needs to make sure that he continues to generate these speeds without putting so much pressure on his body. If he just increases his muscle mass a little bit, he’s going to be able to reach that same amount of force — meaning his same distances and his same speeds — with a lot less acceleration, which is going to put less stress on his body.”

To refute the critics even more, Romero goes on to explain that the added muscle Rory has built might actually do more to preserve his career than damage it.

“Even if his mass is a little bit higher, this is actually going to protect his back and his body and give him longevity in the sport,” she said.

Rory’s longevity remains to be seen, but his results speak for themselves. With four majors and a No. 2 world ranking, there’s no need for McIlroy to defend himself on Twitter… but it’s quite entertaining when he does.

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Nick Heidelberger writes about all things related to golf, from the world's best players to the weekend warriors, although he can only relate to the latter. When he's not writing or golfing, Nick co-hosts the @AtTheTurnPod, hikes with his dogs and roots for his wife's soccer team. Twitter: @njheidelberger

52 Comments

52 Comments

  1. Someone

    Jun 17, 2017 at 12:28 am

    The article is poorly written because he just restates what he quoted.

    On another note everything is relative. In the world of golfers, Rory could be considered jacked because of his muscle mass. Compared to long driver champs, no way. Compared to body builders and powerlifters, nah. But again, putting it into perspective, compared to most golfers he’s pretty jacked. Ripped on the other hand is another story. Ripped is definition and lean. Villegas is absolutely the most ripped player on tour. Is he jacked? Not really, considering his muscular toning, he’s more ripped than he is jacked. Yes that is possible.

    Those making the comparison of a golfer to a jacked football player, are comparing bananas to pineapples…they’re not even remotely related when it comes to golf and being “jacked.”

    Write something new next time. Don’t just re-summarize past events and then quote them to be redundant. If you’re gonna write an article, do it the way Johnny miller thinks golf anchors should commentate. Don’t be afraid to make your own speculations about things and possibly be wrong. It’s not interesting if you wait until AFTER the shot and just comment on what happened. There’s no need for a sportscaster if all you do is repeat what we just saw. Be intersting. Don’t be afraid to say “I don’t think he’ll make this putt.” When they do, just say “oh, well I guess I was wrong.”

  2. EddieEdwards

    Jun 15, 2017 at 9:33 am

    Nobody on the pro tour is jacked. Jason Zuback is, and he doesn’t seem to have any flexibility issues.

  3. cgasucks

    Jun 14, 2017 at 10:09 pm

    I bet 10 years from now Rory will be pulled over by cops in Northern Ireland in the middle of the night for driving under the influence of all the painkillers he took to deal with his injuries from weightlifting from years past…

    • Quinn

      Jun 15, 2017 at 11:57 am

      Funny how Gary Player has been a fitness advocate his whole life, known for “weightlifting” and he is still very fit and strong at the age of 80 years old. He still trains 4 to 5 times a week and iss much better off than Jack Nicklaus physically at an old age. But you don’t seem to include him in this discussion. Who’s to say that Tiger wouldn’t have had these problems regardless if he weight lifted or not? More than likely its genetic and he would have had those problems regardless due to the strain he puts on his lower back with his swing. Without weight lifting he would have been worse off.

      • peter collins

        Jun 16, 2017 at 3:57 pm

        good post

        • stephen smith

          Apr 8, 2023 at 9:30 pm

          Weight training is fine. Lifting extra heavy dead weights that change your body is so wrong for golf. Feel, flexibility, and quick strength, are the keys to good golf. What? A slimmer, less muscled version of Tiger winning the U.S. Open by 15 strokes is not good enough???

  4. Quinn

    Jun 14, 2017 at 12:14 pm

    One thing nobody ever talks about and is the fact that working out and building up your physique actually helps you mentally in the sense that you become more confident which directly translates to the golf course. The idea that working out and building muscle hurts your game is ridiculous, no you do not become less flexible, quite the opposite actually it can allow you to become more flexible as long as you stretch. If your muscles grow too big to properly swing the golf club then yes it could have an impact but nobody on tour has this problem and certainly not Rory. Building up muscle will help prevent injury and you will deal with less joint issues, muscle and strength training helps with this. I’ve had knee problems since I was a teenager due to damaging my meniscus and my knee would pop out of socket frequently. But ever since I’ve built up the muscle in my legs with squats and leg workouts I’ve never felt better. Working out will help you no matter what anybody says, its ridiculous to think otherwise. I would say one thing you have to be aware of is not to be too tight from a workout and be aware when to workout so as not to affect the day you play. But a lot of times even in Tiger’s case he said when he was younger he was too loose and I can agree with that because I’ve personally felt/seen that.

  5. Jacked_Loft

    Jun 14, 2017 at 10:45 am

    14 months ago I weighed 125 lbs at 5 foot 4, now I weigh 150 lbs and have put on 25 lbs of muscle with only the help of free weights and body weight exercises.

    14 months ago I had to swing out of my shoes to get a 100 mph driver headspeed, now I just have to effortlessly turn and release to reach 102 mph.

    As I don’t have the leverage of someone 6 ft tall, I have to produce head speed by createing more torque through larger muscle mass. It took me a while to stop forcing but now it’s easy-peasy just to let go.

    I look good, feel good and haven’t had an injury all season. At 58 I’m quite happy with the change.

    If the guys want to workout and play it’s ok with me.

  6. Matt

    Jun 14, 2017 at 3:56 am

    Good on Rory for taking care of himself (it doesn’t take much to look ripped next to all the overweight PGA players). Ripped gym junky he ain’t.

  7. Z

    Jun 14, 2017 at 2:52 am

    He ain’t ripped, whatch’all talking about? He’s a shrimp! Make him wear some baggy shirts and not them skintight swimsuit shirts, you’ll see how he’s really not ripped at all.

  8. JThunder

    Jun 13, 2017 at 8:55 pm

    It’s awesome how people here know more about training and physical fitness than the top golfers in the world, their coaches, and all the trainers in professional sports and the PGA Tour. Congratulations! Seems like you should ply your advanced knowledge to put some of these people out of work and turn Rory, Tiger, etc, into the perfectly fitted athletes that you know you can sculpt. Or are you all wealthy and busy enough already?

    Your superior skills and knowledge are wasted in comments sections of blogs. The real world is just like the internet, only taller.

  9. Brian

    Jun 13, 2017 at 7:59 pm

    Sure…force = mass X acceleration…however, the mass in this equation is in the golf club, not the human that is producing the acceleration.

    • H

      Jun 13, 2017 at 8:26 pm

      But the body has to be able to support those mass and acceleration, otherwise you won’t get solid contact with proper momentum (mass X velocity), therefore if you’re weak like you are, you can’t get distance fnar fnar

  10. toyzrx

    Jun 13, 2017 at 6:19 pm

    Golf is a game, not really a sport. You don’t have to be powerful, fast, or even fit to play the game well. Golf has become all of a sudden cool in the media world since mid 90s. Today, the game is not what it used it be – for kids and older people who cannot play other real sports. So I guess the top guys need to look like real athletes. It’s the image thing I guess. They need to be good models for the apparel their sponsors are trying to sell.

    • Brandon

      Jun 14, 2017 at 9:46 am

      sport

      /spôrt/

      noun

      noun: sport; plural noun: sports

      1. an activity involving physical exertion and skill in which an individual or team competes against another or others for entertainment.

      Navigating undulating and changing terrain, spinning and placing the ball for positioning for the next shot, etc. Are you sure it’s not a sport? 300+ yard drives, hitting high 185 yard 5 and 6 irons from 2-5 inch rough is pretty physical, and the skill set necessary to compete at the highest level. It’s funny when people say golf isn’t a sport just because we don’t run or they believe that the physical exertion isn’t as high as other sports yet the same top tier athletes that are so great at their sports can’t beat the majority of amateurs that play this GAME.

      • ComeyforPresident

        Jun 14, 2017 at 9:50 am

        Agreed. Anyone who has seen a pro hit balls in real life will realize the difference between the individuals “game” and the pros “sport”.

    • Brandon

      Jun 14, 2017 at 9:54 am

      oh and about being fit or fast, so what exactly is Curling or Table Tennis or competitive shooting or archery, are they not sports? I guess the big 5 are the only real sports, American Football, Basketball, Hockey, Soccer, and Baseball maybe even Cricket? Well Basketball and Baseball are debatable, if you are 6’9 – 7’2 with no coordination, you can get into the NBA nowadays as long as you can get 4 rebounds, 3 points and 1 block a game even though you can’t jump higher than a frog and everybody else outrun’s you down the floor and I guess baseball isn’t either when the most recent Triple Crown winner looks like all he did was sat around and ate donuts all the time.

  11. NolanMBA

    Jun 13, 2017 at 6:12 pm

    Well say what you want but theres like 19ish majors between TW, Rory and Day so… Hard to ignore that.

  12. ooffa

    Jun 13, 2017 at 2:52 pm

    Yes he is. It will be a short while before he starts breaking down just like Tiger.
    The steroids will take their toll.

    • H

      Jun 13, 2017 at 8:25 pm

      You would know from shooting up every day making your johnson really tiny, eh, you need a tweezer?

      • ooffa

        Jun 14, 2017 at 6:33 am

        Your lady seemed pretty happy with it last night.

  13. brian

    Jun 13, 2017 at 2:06 pm

    good grief what has the golf world come to…we consider a guy who is 5 foot 9 and weight 165 to be jacked. No wonder other athletes make fun of us! Not even in the realm of muscular, let alone jacked. Rory and Day just keep wearing shmedium size clothes, not getting jacked

    • chinchbugs

      Jun 13, 2017 at 4:12 pm

      +1

    • Dr Troy

      Jun 13, 2017 at 9:07 pm

      Brian- finally someone with a little common sense in regards to this topic. “Jacked” @ 165-170lbs is downright laughable. You wanna see jacked? Watch the NFL or open a muscle and fitness mag.

    • Large chris

      Jun 13, 2017 at 10:03 pm

      I’ve stood next to him a couple of times and I think even 5’9 is pushing it…. 5’7 is more likely. He’s tiny.

  14. li0scc0

    Jun 13, 2017 at 1:47 pm

    The problem is these golfers are injuring themselves with improper lifting techniques. They are utilizing ballistic movements such as Crossfit, plyometrics, and Olympic Weightlifting which have far higher rates of injury. If you notice, the golfers who lift are those who are the most injured (Dustin Johnson, Rory, Tiger, Jason Day, etc.).
    As an athletic trainer, I always had athletes implement Powerlifting techniques with a focus on strength, not size. Such techniques have low injury rates and shield the body from sports related injury.

  15. Dave

    Jun 13, 2017 at 12:39 pm

    I love all of these people who think they can diagnose Rory’s golf “problems” (as the world number 2, it’s debatable that he even has any golf problems). How would anyone be able to tell for sure that his weightlifting has negatively affected his golf game? Jordan Spieth’s performance has dropped off considerably since 2015, and he hasn’t been bulking up in the gym. What do the “experts” have to say about his “struggles on the golf course”?

    The simple truth is that golf is just an incredibly difficult game to play consistently at the highest level. Tiger made it look easy by dominating the game for nearly 10 years, and people who know absolutely nothing about golf expect other players to be able to do the same with ease. Well, it doesn’t work like that, and there really is no issue here to be discussed.

  16. Judge Smells

    Jun 13, 2017 at 11:29 am

    Justin Thomas is on the pop tarts and xbox routine doing just fine

  17. Shambles

    Jun 13, 2017 at 11:18 am

    Actually, he’s not that ripped. If you can find a recent photo of him with his shirt off while on vacation, you can see that he is not ripped like some of the long-drive guys at all. It only appears that way because of the shirts he wears and the designs that make it seem like he has massive pecks and thick arms. But he’s actually quite svelte, he’s only 5’9″ at 165, and his arms are about as normal for a fit guy at his height and weight. When he plays, he’s quite limber and knows how to stretch every muscle to get the speed he generates.

  18. Dj

    Jun 13, 2017 at 11:13 am

    Do people honestly think he’s jacked??? He’s posted pics with his shirt off.. certainly not jacked. He put on a little muscle and tone, that’s all.

  19. Notbuyingit

    Jun 13, 2017 at 10:45 am

    I think someone forgot to tell Olympic gymnasts that you can’t be muscular and flexible…

    • TR1PTIK

      Jun 13, 2017 at 11:11 am

      My point exactly (if it will ever post). Rory is no bigger than any male gymnast I’ve ever seen. It’s all about HOW you train in the gym. The idea that adding mass = less flexibility is a generalization that needs to be stopped. Sitting on your @$$ in a desk chair behind a computer keyboard all day = less flexibility!

    • Brian

      Jun 13, 2017 at 7:57 pm

      Gymnasts don’t do much weight lifting. Their bodies are built almost entirely from body weight exercises.

  20. Teaj

    Jun 13, 2017 at 10:35 am

    This is just my uneducated opinion here so be gentle. Is it the swing before and at impact that is where damage is inflicted on the body or is it the follow through and the body having to stop the rotation of the swing? If the latter and Player A does not work out and swings at 110mph and player B does work out and has the same 110mph swing I would assume player B’s muscular frame will be better equipped to handle the forces generated by the golf swing, that is true unless Player B has worked out to the point that the muscles are fatigued then this could have the adverse effect and more impact and force would now be put on the skeletal structure in turn causing more injuries to joints.

    Now take into consideration if player A and B have the same weight club player B would most likely be able to swing the club at a faster speed (I know there are other aspects to the swing that can effect speed) but for the sake of argument player B should be able to swing faster in turn the forces to stop the swing need to be larger which run the risk of (possibly) being transferred to the skeletal structure.

    I am not sure I understand the effect of a golfer having more mass being able to hit the ball farther, I am sure some of this added weight is transferred into the swing but at a very small percentage would be transferred to the head of the club. Now if the club head has more mass I can see how this would compress a ball more given the same swing speed which could effect ball speed as long as this has not increased backspin.

  21. Benny Frank the 3rd

    Jun 13, 2017 at 9:41 am

    Citing “social media persona Fit Golfer Girl” as an expert – wow!
    This is not an article this is a quick google search of what some people have said on this subject. No own research on the subject, no direct statements from the people involved and no laid out arguments for any thesis, antithesis – not speaking of synthesis. This is a clickbaiting waste of time. Shame on you!

  22. Daym

    Jun 13, 2017 at 9:34 am

    The lack of understanding of exercise physiology and how it relates directly to the golf swing, from your expert, is laughable. There are undoubtedly workouts and exercises that will increase a golfers ability to work his/her swing.

    That said however, immobility from mass is a common issue among professional athletes. Take Dwight Howard for instance…the guy is massive and naturally so, but, his mass has limited him on the court for years. Every team he’s played on has had that concern, and still do. Now, if he were in the NFL, the story would be different. The point remains though, that mass doesn’t necessarily create power. Speed creates power, at least as it relates to golf. Adding large amounts of mass restricts mobility – look at your nearest beefcake in the gym tomorrow – and it actually can limit speed.

    Rory working out is NOT the issue. It’s how he’s working out that is the issue. Factually speaking, the muscles of the lower back are small muscle groups, and even combined together, they’re still a small group. When those muscles are stressed from having to carry the added mass (muscle weighs more than fat) from the upper back muscles, that’s when problems start to develop. And we’ve seen that time and again…

    Think back to the last world number 1 before Tiger’s reign, David Duvall. Somewhat chubby, but loose and limber. Now, think back to when he went on the fitness/working out train. It destroyed his back and body, and he’s admitted that himself. His career essentially ended because of injuries.

    We’ve seen it with El Tigre, as well. Make no mistake, Tiger’s back issues are almost directly a result of the violence of his swing and the added mass he has to carry. That creates uneven “push & pull” duties to all the muscles and that’s when tears and rips start happening.

    The real question is, did Jack look like that? What about Gary Player? Tom Watson? Arnold Palmer? Seve? Trevino? Any of the historical greats of the game? There’s a reason they didn’t, and it’s not because there wasn’t weights to do it. Arnold Schwartzenegger and Reg Park were in their primes in those guys’ hay days. The methodology was there, however, those guys understood that being limber is better, especially in golf.

    I have been saying for years that what golfers should be doing is stuff like Yoga, Pilates, Tabata, or other techniques that work around keeping the weight down, the tone in the middle (not too ripped) and flexibility high. Guys that are doing deadlifts and working with heavy weights, are eventually going to limit themselves. This is obvious to most exercise physiologists…..myself included.

    • Greg V

      Jun 13, 2017 at 10:13 am

      This is an excellently written reply.

      Johnny Miller was another guy who bulked up and ruined his golf game. Chopping wood, or something like that if I remember.

      Nicklaus was pretty darn smart. He played (and continues to play) tennis to stay in shape.

    • dapadre

      Jun 13, 2017 at 10:23 am

      I cannot refute anything you are saying but would like to add that I think the main issue is how theier swing needs to ADJUST to their new body which is the issue. When you put on muscle, you usually loose flexibility and that is the trade-off.

    • mike

      Jun 13, 2017 at 10:33 am

      In the golf swing speed will always be king, and some obtain that through strength, if we look at the longest hitters in the world on the long drive circuit they are massive guys, but if you are not 6’6 and have the body able to support that mass I have always loved jamie sadlowski’s swing/physique for its ability to produce incredible amounts of speed in a body that doesnt need to be 300 lbs. He is great shape but in ways that help his golf swing like flexibility and balance to control that fast motion vs mass that would slow his body down. Could be incredibly wrong but that’s my 2 cents.

    • TR1PTIK

      Jun 13, 2017 at 11:06 am

      I’m not an expert, but I’ve done extensive reading on the subject of bodybuilding and athletic training to know that your generalization of what added mass does to an athlete is absolutely false. Added mass can restrict a golfer’s ability to swing freely, but only if he/she does not incorporate mobility, flexibility, and myofascial release exercises into the program. From what I can tell, Rory is no bigger than a high school or budding collegiate gymnast. He’s no bodybuilder. What everyone always seem to ignore is the fact that Rory is working with a personal trainer and his programming focuses primarily on making him a more complete and balanced athlete. The issues Rory had with his back are well noted and if you did a quick search you would also learn that he originally had stability issues in his legs (primarily his non-dominant side). The goal of his training (as it should be for any athlete) has always been to improve the areas in which he has the most issues. There may be some things he has done solely for the purpose of physical appearance, but none I can see which are cause for any concern. His training (and that of almost any other pro-golfer) is a world away from what Tiger was doing.

    • Tal

      Jun 13, 2017 at 11:19 am

      Perfect response!

    • Jonathan

      Jun 15, 2017 at 11:29 am

      Agreed on the Pilates, Yoga.

      There’s an element of machismo in how golfer’s work out. Dead lifts, Squats, Bench presses are macho. Stretching, flexibility regimes like Yoga are not macho.

      It’s the same as Driving versus Short game. Bombing the driver 300+ yards is macho. 3 foot putts and chipping are not. But they all count the same on the scorecard.

      Ask any Pro if they would rather a mediocre long game with a tour best short game or a tour best driving distance with a mediocre short game, they would always stump for the superior short game.

      Any intelligent golfer recognizes that. As they also recognize that routines that focus primarily on increasing flexibility, limberness etc are far more important are more appropriate for their longevity than heavy compound lifting and their risk of getting career stifling injuries.

  23. stevie

    Jun 13, 2017 at 9:20 am

    key Q: does it effect his putting touch?, which needs improvement apparently.

  24. Patricknorm

    Jun 13, 2017 at 9:19 am

    I’m okay with Rory getting stronger to a point. Everyone has a particular build (meso, ecto, endo) based on their genetics. There is a point of diminishing return and it happened to Tiger where his joints could handle the torque from his swing. Something has to give whether it’s your knees, back or ankles.
    Golfers do strength training to prevent injuries and if they get a little stronger then it’s a bonus. I always believe the focus on strength training should always be core related. It’s not important to squat or bench or dead lift massive amounts unless your a power lifter. Golf is a pretty violent rotational movement and when core muscles are stressed, something has to give.
    Finally it’s easy to get addicted to the gym. Especially when those muscles get bigger. Like I mentioned earlier, there is a point of diminishing return.

  25. mr b

    Jun 13, 2017 at 9:08 am

    People that criticize professional golfer’s weight lifting routines are simply misinformed. end of story.

    • gvogelsang

      Jun 13, 2017 at 7:12 pm

      Weight lifting is the “easy” way to try to get in better shape, but not the best. Playing a different sport, like tennis, or squash, would improve fitness and not put on unnecessary muscle bulk. And then we have Camilo Villegas who takes long bike rides for fitness. I would endorse that.

      Rory, statistically, was a little longer before the gym routine. I can see some moderate weight work to protect his back, but the bulk in the shoulders and biceps is totally unnecessary for a golfer. For a golfer, all you need is the strength in the upper body to maintain width. The force comes from the core and legs. One can keep that in shape through cross training – tennis, squash, bicycling, stand up paddling. Heavy weights are unproductive. But, they are addictive.

      Rory was a better, more natural golfer before the weight room.

      • Steve

        Jun 14, 2017 at 12:22 am

        Maybe, just maybe, he has realized there’s more to life than just golfing… Maybe he likes lifting weights and likes the way it makes him look/feel…

        • Steve

          Jun 14, 2017 at 12:24 am

          Also, he used to do the “other sport” route as well… and then he seriously messed up his ankle playing soccer… Seems like lifting is the safer option for him.

        • gvogelsang

          Jun 15, 2017 at 9:00 pm

          He was a better golfer when he was pudgy.

          So was Bobby Jones, and Jack Nicklaus. When you are a golfer who can hit the crap out of the ball, and score better than everyone else, you shouldn’t mess with what Mother Nature gave you.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open betting preview

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As the Florida swing comes to an end, the PGA Tour makes its way to Houston to play the Texas Children’s Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course.

This will be the fourth year that Memorial Park Golf Course will serve as the tournament host. The event did not take place in 2023, but the course hosted the event in 2020, 2021 and 2022.

Memorial Park is a par-70 layout measuring 7,432 yards and features Bermudagrass greens. Historically, the main defense for the course has been thick rough along the fairways and tightly mown runoff areas around the greens. Memorial Park has a unique setup that features three Par 5’s and five Par 3’s.

The field will consist of 132 players, with the top 65 and ties making the cut. There are some big names making the trip to Houston, including Scottie Scheffler, Wyndham Clark, Tony Finau, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala.

Past Winners at Memorial Park

  • 2022: Tony Finau (-16)
  • 2021: Jason Kokrak (-10)
  • 2020: Carlos Ortiz (-13)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Memorial Park

Let’s take a look at several metrics for Memorial Park to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds:

Strokes Gained: Approach

Memorial Park is a pretty tough golf course. Golfers are penalized for missing greens and face some difficult up and downs to save par. Approach will be key.

Total Strokes Gained: Approach per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.30)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.26)
  3. Keith Mitchell (+0.97) 
  4. Tony Finau (+0.92)
  5. Jake Knapp (+0.84)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Memorial Park is a long golf course with rough that can be penal. Therefore, a combination of distance and accuracy is the best metric.

Total Strokes Gained: Off the Tee per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+0.94)
  2. Kevin Dougherty (+0.93)
  3. Cameron Champ (+0.86)
  4. Rafael Campos (+0.84)
  5. Si Woo Kim (+0.70)

Strokes Gained Putting: Bermudagrass + Fast

The Bermudagrass greens played fairly fast the past few years in Houston. Jason Kokrak gained 8.7 strokes putting on his way to victory in 2021 and Tony Finau gained in 7.8 in 2022.

Total Strokes Gained Putting (Bermudagrass) per round past 24 rounds (min. 8 rounds):

  1. Adam Svensson (+1.27)
  2. Harry Hall (+1.01)
  3. Martin Trainer (+0.94)
  4. Taylor Montgomery (+0.88)
  5. S.H. Kim (+0.86)

Strokes Gained: Around the Green

With firm and undulating putting surfaces, holding the green on approach shots may prove to be a challenge. Memorial Park has many tightly mowed runoff areas, so golfers will have challenging up-and-down’s around the greens. Carlos Ortiz gained 5.7 strokes around the green on the way to victory in 2020.

Total Strokes Gained: Around the Green per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Mackenzie Hughes (+0.76)
  2. S.H. Kim (+0.68)
  3. Scottie Scheffler (+0.64)
  4. Jorge Campillo (+0.62)
  5. Jason Day (+0.60)

Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult

Memorial Park is a long and difficult golf course. This statistic will incorporate players who’ve had success on these types of tracks in the past. 

Total Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.45)
  2. Ben Griffin (+1.75)
  3. Will Zalatoris (+1.73)
  4. Ben Taylor (+1.53)
  5. Tony Finau (+1.42)

Course History

Here are the players who have performed the most consistently at Memorial Park. 

Strokes Gained Total at Memorial Park past 12 rounds:

  1. Tyson Alexander (+3.65)
  2. Ben Taylor (+3.40)
  3. Tony Finau (+2.37)
  4. Joel Dahmen (+2.25)
  5. Patton Kizzire (+2.16)

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (24%) SG: OTT (24%); SG: Putting Bermudagrass/Fast (13%); SG: Long and Difficult (13%); SG: ARG (13%) and Course History (13%)

  1. Scottie Scheffler
  2. Wyndham Clark
  3. Tony Finau
  4. Joel Dahmen
  5. Stephan Jaeger 
  6. Aaron Rai
  7. Sahith Theegala
  8. Keith Mitchell 
  9. Jhonnatan Vegas
  10. Jason Day
  11. Kurt Kitayama
  12. Alex Noren
  13. Will Zalatoris
  14. Si Woo Kim
  15. Adam Long

2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open Picks

Will Zalatoris +2000 (Caesars)

Scottie Scheffler will undoubtedly be difficult to beat this week, so I’m starting my card with someone who I believe has the talent to beat him if he doesn’t have his best stuff.

Will Zalatoris missed the cut at the PLAYERS, but still managed to gain strokes on approach while doing so. In an unpredictable event with extreme variance, I don’t believe it would be wise to discount Zalatoris based on that performance. Prior to The PLAYERS, the 27-year-old finished T13, T2 and T4 in his previous three starts.

Zalatoris plays his best golf on long and difficult golf courses. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the category, but the eye test also tells a similar story. He’s contended at major championships and elevated events in the best of fields with tough scoring conditions.  The Texas resident should be a perfect fit at Memorial Park Golf Club.

Alex Noren +4500 (FanDuel)

Alex Noren has been quietly playing some of his best golf of the last half decade this season. The 41-year-old is coming off back-to-back top-20 finishes in Florida including a T9 at The PLAYERS in his most recent start.

In his past 24 rounds, Noren ranks 21st in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 30th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, 25th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses and 21st in Strokes Gained: Putting on fast Bermudagrass greens.

In addition to his strong recent play, the Swede also has played well at Memorial Park. In 2022, Noren finished T4 at the event, gaining 2.2 strokes off the tee and 7.0 strokes on approach for the week. In his two starts at the course, he’s gained an average of .6 strokes per round on the field, indicating he is comfortable on these greens.

Noren has been due for a win for what feels like an eternity, but Memorial Park may be the course that suits him well enough for him to finally get his elusive first PGA Tour victory.

Mackenzie Hughes +8000 (FanDuel)

Mackenzie Hughes found himself deep into contention at last week’s Valspar Championship before faltering late and finishing in a tie for 3rd place. While he would have loved to win the event, it’s hard to see the performance as anything other than an overwhelming positive sign for the Canadian.

Hughes has played great golf at Memorial Park in the past. He finished T7 in 2020, T29 in 2021 and T16 in 2022. The course fit seems to be quite strong for Hughes. He’s added distance off the tee in the past year or and ranks 8th in the field for apex height, which will be a key factor when hitting into Memorial Park’s elevated greens with steep run-off areas.

In his past 24 rounds, Hughes is the best player in the field in Strokes Gained: Around the Greens. The ability to scramble at this course will be extremely important. I believe Hughes can build off of his strong finish last week and contend once again to cement himself as a President’s Cup consideration.

Akshay Bhatia +8000 (FanDuel)

Akshay Bhatia played well last week at the Valspar and seemed to be in total control of his golf ball. He finished in a tie for 17th and shot an impressive -3 on a difficult Sunday. After struggling Thursday, Akshay shot 68-70-68 in his next three rounds.

Thus far, Bhatia has played better at easier courses, but his success at Copperhead may be due to his game maturing. The 22-year-old has enormous potential and the raw talent to be one of the best players in the world when he figures it all out.

Bhatia is a high upside play with superstar qualities and may just take the leap forward to the next stage of his career in the coming months.

Cameron Champ +12000 (FanDuel)

Cameron Champ is a player I often target in the outright betting market due to his “boom-or-bust” nature. It’s hard to think of a player in recent history with three PGA Tour wins who’s been as inconsistent as Champ has over the course of his career.

Despite the erratic play, Cam Champ simply knows how to win. He’s won in 2018, 2019 and 2021, so I feel he’s due for a win at some point this season. The former Texas A&M product should be comfortable in Texas and last week he showed us that his game is in a pretty decent spot.

Over his past 24 rounds, Champ ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 30th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses. Given his ability to spike at any given time, Memorial Park is a good golf course to target Champ on at triple digit odds.

Robert MacIntyre +12000 (FanDuel)

The challenge this week is finding players who can possibly beat Scottie Scheffler while also not dumping an enormous amount of money into an event that has a player at the top that looks extremely dangerous. Enter McIntyre, who’s another boom-or-bust type player who has the ceiling to compete with anyone when his game is clicking on all cylinders.

In his past 24 rounds, MacIntyre ranks 16th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 17th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and 10th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses.

MacIntyre’s PGA Tour season has gotten off to a slow start, but he finished T6 in Mexico, which is a course where players will hit driver on the majority of their tee shots, which is what we will see at Memorial Park. Texas can also get quite windy, which should suit MacIntyre. Last July, the Scot went toe to toe with Rory McIlroy at the Scottish Open before a narrow defeat. It would take a similar heroic effort to compete with Scheffler this year in Houston.

Ryan Moore +15000 (FanDuel)

Ryan Moore’s iron play has been absolutely unconscious over his past few starts. At The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field, he gained 6.1 strokes on approach and last week at Copperhead, he gained 9.0 strokes on approach.

It’s been a rough handful of years on Tour for the 41-year-old, but he is still a five-time winner on the PGA Tour who’s young enough for a career resurgence. Moore has chronic deterioration in a costovertebral joint that connects the rib to the spine, but has been getting more consistent of late, which is hopefully a sign that he is getting healthy.

Veterans have been contending in 2024 and I believe taking a flier on a proven Tour play who’s shown signs of life is a wise move at Memorial Park.

 

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Why the race to get better at golf might be doing more harm than good

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B.F. Skinner was one of the most important psychologists of the 20th century, developing the foundation of the development of reinforcement, and in doing so, creating the concept of behaviorism. In simple terms, this means that we are conditioned by our habits. In practical terms, it explains the divide between the few and far between elite instructors and college coaches.

To understand the application, let’s quickly review one of B.F. Skinner’s most important experiments; superstitions in the formation of behavior by pigeons. In this experiment, food was dispensed to pigeons at random intervals. Soon, according to Skinner, the pigeons began to associate whatever action they were doing at the time of the food being dispensed. According to Skinner, this conditioned that response and soon, they simply haphazardly repeated the action, failing to distinguish between cause and correlation (and in the meantime, looking really funny!).

Now, this is simply the best way to describe the actions of most every women’s college golf coach and too many instructors in America. They see something work, get positive feedback and then become conditioned to give the feedback, more and more, regardless of if it works (this is also why tips from your buddies never work!).

Go to a college event, particularly a women’s one, and you will see coaches running all over the place. Like the pigeons in the experiment, they have been conditioned into a codependent relationship with their players in which they believe their words and actions, can transform a round of golf. It is simply hilarious while being equally perturbing

In junior golf, it’s everywhere. Junior golf academies make a living selling parents that a hysterical coach and over-coaching are essential ingredients in your child’s success.

Let’s be clear, no one of any intellect has any real interest in golf — because it’s not that interesting. The people left, including most coaches and instructors, carve out a small fiefdom, usually on the corner of the range, where they use the illusion of competency to pray on people. In simple terms, they baffle people with the bullshit of pseudo-science that they can make you better, after just one more lesson.

The reality is that life is an impromptu game. The world of golf, business, and school have a message that the goal is being right. This, of course, is bad advice, being right in your own mind is easy, trying to push your ideas on others is hard. As a result, it is not surprising that the divorce rate among golf professionals and their instructors is 100 percent. The transfer rate among college players continues to soar, and too many courses have a guy peddling nefarious science to good people. In fact, we do at my course!

The question is, what impact does all this have on college-age and younger kids? At this point, we honestly don’t know. However, I am going to go out on a limb and say it isn’t good.

Soren Kierkegaard once quipped “I saw it for what it is, and I laughed.” The actions of most coaches and instructors in America are laughable. The problem is that I am not laughing because they are doing damage to kids, as well as driving good people away from this game.

The fact is that golfers don’t need more tips, secrets, or lessons. They need to be presented with a better understanding of the key elements of golf. With this understanding, they can then start to frame which information makes sense and what doesn’t. This will emancipate them and allow them to take charge of their own development.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Valspar Championship betting preview: Elite ballstrikers to thrive at Copperhead

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The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2024 Valspar Championship.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermudagrass greens overseeded with POA. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 16, 17 and 18 — also known as the “Snake Pit” — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.

The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. The field this week is solid and is a major improvement over last year’s field that felt the impact of players skipping due to a handful of “signature events” in a short span of time. 

Past Winners at Valspar Championship

  • 2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
  • 2022: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
  • 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
  • 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
  • 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
  • 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Copperhead

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can’t be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)

  1. Tony Finau (+.90)
  2. Nick Taylor (+.81)
  3. Justin Thomas (+.77)
  4. Greyson Sigg (+.69)
  5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+.67)

2. Good Drive %

The long hitters can be a bit limited here due to the tree-lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important, but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.

Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+91.3%) 
  2. Zach Johnson (+91.1%)
  3. Sam Ryder (+90.5%)
  4. Ryan Moore (+90.4%)
  5. Aaron Rai (+89.7%)

3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1.32)
  2. Keith Mitchell (+1.29)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.24)
  4. Cameron Young (+1.17) 
  5. Doug Ghim (+.95)

4. Bogey Avoidance

With the conditions likely to be difficult, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, oftentimes the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.

Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.

Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+9.0)
  2. Xander Schauffele (+9.3)
  3. Austin Cook (+9.7) 
  4. Chesson Hadley (+10.0)
  5. Greyson Sigg (+10.2)

5. Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions

Conditions will be tough this week at Copperhead. I am looking for golfers who can rise to the occasion if the course plays as difficult as it has in the past.

Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1,71) 
  2. Min Woo Lee (+1.39)
  3. Cameron Young (+1.27)
  4. Jordan Spieth (+1.08)
  5. Justin Suh (+.94)

6. Course History

That statistic will tell us which players have played well at Copperhead in the past.

Course History Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+3.75) 
  2. Sam Burns (+2.49)
  3. Davis Riley (+2.33)
  4. Matt NeSmith (+2.22)
  5. Jordan Spieth (+2.04)

The Valspar Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Good Drive % (15%), SG: BS (20%), Bogeys Avoided (13%), Course History (13%) Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions (12%).

  1. Xander Schauffele
  2. Doug Ghim
  3. Victor Perez
  4. Greyson Sigg
  5. Ryan Moore
  6. Tony Finau
  7. Justin Thomas
  8. Sam Ryder
  9. Sam Burns
  10. Lucas Glover

2024 Valspar Championship Picks

Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)

Justin Thomas will be disappointed with his finish at last week’s PLAYERS Championship, as the past champion missed the cut despite being in some decent form heading into the event. Despite the missed cut, JT hit the ball really well. In his two rounds, the two-time major champion led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach per round.

Thomas has been up and down this season. He’s missed the cut in two “signature events” but also has finishes of T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T6 at the Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am and T3 at the American Express. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in the field.

Thomas loves Copperhead. In his last three tries at the course, he’s finished T13, T3 and T10. Thomas would have loved to get a win at a big event early in the season, but avoidable mistakes and a balky putter have cost him dearly. I believe a trip to a course he loves in a field he should be able to capitalize on is the right recipe for JT to right the ship.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (FanDuel)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is playing spectacular golf in the 2024 season. He finished 2nd at the American Express, T20 at Pebble Beach and T24 at the Genesis Invitational before finishing T13 at last week’s PLAYERS Championship.

In his past 24 rounds, the South African ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 26th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. Bezuidenhout managed to work his way around TPC Sawgrass last week with minimal damage. He only made five bogeys in the entire week, which is a great sign heading into a difficult Copperhead this week.

Bezuidenhout is winless in his PGA Tour career, but certainly has the talent to win on Tour. His recent iron play tells me that this week could be a breakthrough for the 35-year-old who has eyes on the President’s Cup.

Doug Ghim +8000 (FanDuel)

Doug Ghim has finished in the top-16 of his past five starts. Most recently, Ghim finished T16 at The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field.

In his past 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 5th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. In terms of his fit for Copperhead, the 27-year-old ranks 12th in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions, making him a great fit for the course.

Ghim has yet to win on Tour, but at one point he was the top ranked Amateur golfer in the world and played in the 2017 Arnold Palmer Cup and 2017 Walker Cup. He then won the Ben Hogan award for the best male college golfer in 2018. He certainly has the talent, and there are signals aplenty that his talent in ready to take him to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour.

Sepp Straka +8000 (BetRivers)

Sepp Straka is a player who’s shown he has the type of game that can translate to a difficult Florida golf course. The former Presidents Cup participant won the 2022 Honda Classic in tough conditions and should thrive with a similar test at Copperhead.

It’s been a slow 2024 for Straka, but his performance last week at the PLAYERS Championship surely provides some optimism. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach as well as 1.88 strokes off the tee. The tee-to-green game Straka showed on a course with plenty of danger demonstrates that he can stay in control of his golf ball this week.

It’s possible that the strong performance last week was an outlier, but I’m willing to bet on a proven winner in a weaker field at a great number.

Victor Perez +12000 (FanDuel)

Victor Perez is no stranger to success in professional golf. The Frenchman has three DP World Tour wins including a Rolex Series event. He won the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, as well as the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which are some big events.

Perez earned his PGA Tour card this season and enters the week playing some fantastic golf. He finished in a tie for 16th in Florida at the Cognizant Classic and then tied for third in his most recent start at the Puerto Rico Open.

In his past 24 rounds in the field, Perez ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 1oth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Good Drive % and 15th in Bogey Avoidance.

Perez comes in as a perfect fit for Copperhead and offers serious value at triple-digit odds.

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