Opinion & Analysis
Women: The Real Answer to Golf’s “Grail Quest”
I know, I know, you’ve heard just about enough about what we need to do to grow, or even save the game of golf. You’re tired of hearing about slow play, the short attention span of millennials, the aging baby-boomers, the consequences of overdevelopment, or the aftermath of the Great Recession. And you just can’t stomach one more pundit claiming all we need is for Tiger to start winning (or even playing) again, and/or how we really just need the next Tiger to come along and save us.
If it isn’t obvious by now that pinning our hopes on either of those scenarios is a fool’s errand I don’t know what is, but then what’s left? Well, maybe there is one thing you haven’t heard discussed, and when it comes to the health of the game, that one thing might just turn out to be the “Holy Grail” of player development and retention.
Sigmund Freud once said, “The great question that has never been answered, and which I have not yet been able to answer, despite my 30 years of research into the feminine soul, is ‘What does a woman want?'” Now I’m no Freud, so for me to suggest that I have the answer to that eternal question would be, at the very least, a bold supposition. I have, however, been at this close to 30 years, and as the chairman of one of the PGA’s Player Development Committee’s, I am particularly invested in the answers to that age-old conundrum, at least from a golfing standpoint. And that is why myself and others working to grow this great game find ourselves on a proverbial “Grail Quest” to find these answers, and maybe even some new questions.
The game of golf in the U.S. has been attracting new participants of both genders at roughly the same rate for close to 40 years. Unfortunately, the glaring differences in numbers when it comes to retention would make it truly appear that once introduced, women very often find the existing golf landscape much closer to Mars than that of Venus. So as the game’s participation numbers began to dip in the past decade, its stewards began investing more than ever to find out what could be done differently. And as a group, women specifically were targeted, and questions that go more than skin-deep began being asked to find out what is truly behind golf’s historical inability to retain women players at the same rates as men.
Studies done by the PGA of America have isolated where we can start pointing fingers, and as it turns out, there are a myriad of issues that collectively conspire to keep women from progressing from the enthusiastic beginner to the core golfer that supports the game long-term. Shorter courses, more relaxed dress codes, available day-care, a focus on fitness, less time commitment, and less expensive equipment are all among the reasons most often cited by women who either don’t play or who don’t play more. And when you combine those issues with the fact that the U.S. doesn’t have a nationally funded overriding organization charged with the growth of the sport as you do in many other countries, it’s no small wonder that many other countries see women participating at much higher rates. And while these are all critical pieces to the puzzle, they are absent one rather central piece to solving it. But before I disclose that missing link, I need to relate the quick story of how I almost accidentally discovered the ultimate answer to this all-important question.
A few years ago I had a vacancy amongst my staff of professionals and began to search for a candidate. During that time, numerous ladies at my facility suggested I hire a woman. I said that I would love to, and in truth had already contacted the LPGA and our local women’s division of the PGA, but as the resumes began pouring in they all had one thing in common. They were all from men, a fact that didn’t surprise me considering how few women club professionals there are. A month went by, and I was already in the interview process when I was finally and unexpectedly contacted by an LPGA Member who was moving back to the area and looking for a club to call home. And while reasons both legal and political obligate me to mention she was not just a woman, but also the most qualified candidate, I would be remiss if I didn’t add that many of our members were thrilled about the fact that she was. Now, we already had a robust women’s program, and an active ladies’ membership, both of which I felt she would augment, but as much as I had expected when I hired her, I wasn’t quite expecting what happened next.
Women who had never taken a lesson started signing up for them, including many whom I had never even seen at the club. Participation in our ladies’ programs, the same programs we had been running for years, jumped overnight, and the perception of my skill as a buyer seemed magically transformed. I was even approached at off-premise social functions by members from other clubs asking about instruction once it became known that I had hired a woman professional. Now most of us in the industry have at least a tacit understanding of what is known as the “intimidation factor,” but even as a three-term member of the PGA’s Board of Directors, I had obviously underestimated how powerful it really is.
The comedienne Phyllis Diller used to say, “You know why the pro tells you to keep your head down don’t you? It’s so you can’t see him laughing.” A funny line from a funny lady, but when this process brought to light the fact that some ladies had been traveling almost 30 miles for lessons at another facility who already employed a woman professional, it really started to hit home how much the him in that joke is the biggest part of our problem. So I stopped laughing, because it really got me to thinking.
As an industry, we are asking why women account for only 20 percent of golf’s players in the U.S., but if we really want to change that shouldn’t we rather be questioning why they comprise less than 5 percent of our nation’s golf professionals? Membership in the LPGA’s Teaching and Club Professional Division stands at roughly 1,500. The PGA of America counts roughly 27,000 members nationally, and while some of those are women, it is still a very small percentage. Thanks to Title IX in the U.S., there are now almost as many women as men playing golf at the high school and collegiate levels, the most common early training ground for men club professionals, yet for some reason those women largely aren’t looking to the industry as a potential career path. And while I know that my having a woman on staff is somewhat unique in the industry, I know the benefits of it wouldn’t be unique to my facility.
In the end, finding that “Holy Grail” entails more than just answering the questions of what women say they want. It means listening with the goal of answering questions they didn’t even think to ask. If we want to make a serious impact on women’s participation, the PGA of America and LPGA need to start aggressively recruiting more women into the business with the long-term goal of having at least the same percentage of women who play the game in our professional ranks. More women in the business is not just good business, it is the answer to our “Grail Quest.” It will bring (and keep) more women in the game, and with those women will come the girls (and boys) of our next generation.
It’s time to stop looking to Tiger, or even for the next Tiger, if we’re looking to make the golf healthy again. Because the real next Tiger more than likely calls herself something like Cheyenne… at least that’s my bold supposition.
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19th Hole
Vincenzi’s 2024 Valspar Championship betting preview: Elite ballstrikers to thrive at Copperhead
The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2024 Valspar Championship.
The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermudagrass greens overseeded with POA. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 16, 17 and 18 — also known as the “Snake Pit” — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.
The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. The field this week is solid and is a major improvement over last year’s field that felt the impact of players skipping due to a handful of “signature events” in a short span of time.
Past Winners at Valspar Championship
- 2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
- 2022: Sam Burns (-17)
- 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
- 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
- 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
- 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
- 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
- 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)
In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value).
Key Stats For Copperhead
1. Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can’t be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course.
Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)
- Tony Finau (+.90)
- Nick Taylor (+.81)
- Justin Thomas (+.77)
- Greyson Sigg (+.69)
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+.67)
2. Good Drive %
The long hitters can be a bit limited here due to the tree-lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important, but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.
Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.
Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds
- Brice Garnett (+91.3%)
- Zach Johnson (+91.1%)
- Sam Ryder (+90.5%)
- Ryan Moore (+90.4%)
- Aaron Rai (+89.7%)
3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking
Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.
SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:
- Xander Schauffele (+1.32)
- Keith Mitchell (+1.29)
- Tony Finau (+1.24)
- Cameron Young (+1.17)
- Doug Ghim (+.95)
4. Bogey Avoidance
With the conditions likely to be difficult, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, oftentimes the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.
Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.
Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds
- Brice Garnett (+9.0)
- Xander Schauffele (+9.3)
- Austin Cook (+9.7)
- Chesson Hadley (+10.0)
- Greyson Sigg (+10.2)
5. Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions
Conditions will be tough this week at Copperhead. I am looking for golfers who can rise to the occasion if the course plays as difficult as it has in the past.
Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions Over Past 24 rounds
- Xander Schauffele (+1,71)
- Min Woo Lee (+1.39)
- Cameron Young (+1.27)
- Jordan Spieth (+1.08)
- Justin Suh (+.94)
6. Course History
That statistic will tell us which players have played well at Copperhead in the past.
Course History Over Past 24 rounds
- Patrick Cantlay (+3.75)
- Sam Burns (+2.49)
- Davis Riley (+2.33)
- Matt NeSmith (+2.22)
- Jordan Spieth (+2.04)
The Valspar Championship Model Rankings
Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Good Drive % (15%), SG: BS (20%), Bogeys Avoided (13%), Course History (13%) Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions (12%).
- Xander Schauffele
- Doug Ghim
- Victor Perez
- Greyson Sigg
- Ryan Moore
- Tony Finau
- Justin Thomas
- Sam Ryder
- Sam Burns
- Lucas Glover
2024 Valspar Championship Picks
Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)
Justin Thomas will be disappointed with his finish at last week’s PLAYERS Championship, as the past champion missed the cut despite being in some decent form heading into the event. Despite the missed cut, JT hit the ball really well. In his two rounds, the two-time major champion led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach per round.
Thomas has been up and down this season. He’s missed the cut in two “signature events” but also has finishes of T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T6 at the Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am and T3 at the American Express. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in the field.
Thomas loves Copperhead. In his last three tries at the course, he’s finished T13, T3 and T10. Thomas would have loved to get a win at a big event early in the season, but avoidable mistakes and a balky putter have cost him dearly. I believe a trip to a course he loves in a field he should be able to capitalize on is the right recipe for JT to right the ship.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (FanDuel)
Christiaan Bezuidenhout is playing spectacular golf in the 2024 season. He finished 2nd at the American Express, T20 at Pebble Beach and T24 at the Genesis Invitational before finishing T13 at last week’s PLAYERS Championship.
In his past 24 rounds, the South African ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 26th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. Bezuidenhout managed to work his way around TPC Sawgrass last week with minimal damage. He only made five bogeys in the entire week, which is a great sign heading into a difficult Copperhead this week.
Bezuidenhout is winless in his PGA Tour career, but certainly has the talent to win on Tour. His recent iron play tells me that this week could be a breakthrough for the 35-year-old who has eyes on the President’s Cup.
Doug Ghim +8000 (FanDuel)
Doug Ghim has finished in the top-16 of his past five starts. Most recently, Ghim finished T16 at The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field.
In his past 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 5th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. In terms of his fit for Copperhead, the 27-year-old ranks 12th in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions, making him a great fit for the course.
Ghim has yet to win on Tour, but at one point he was the top ranked Amateur golfer in the world and played in the 2017 Arnold Palmer Cup and 2017 Walker Cup. He then won the Ben Hogan award for the best male college golfer in 2018. He certainly has the talent, and there are signals aplenty that his talent in ready to take him to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour.
Sepp Straka +8000 (BetRivers)
Sepp Straka is a player who’s shown he has the type of game that can translate to a difficult Florida golf course. The former Presidents Cup participant won the 2022 Honda Classic in tough conditions and should thrive with a similar test at Copperhead.
It’s been a slow 2024 for Straka, but his performance last week at the PLAYERS Championship surely provides some optimism. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach as well as 1.88 strokes off the tee. The tee-to-green game Straka showed on a course with plenty of danger demonstrates that he can stay in control of his golf ball this week.
It’s possible that the strong performance last week was an outlier, but I’m willing to bet on a proven winner in a weaker field at a great number.
Victor Perez +12000 (FanDuel)
Victor Perez is no stranger to success in professional golf. The Frenchman has three DP World Tour wins including a Rolex Series event. He won the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, as well as the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which are some big events.
Perez earned his PGA Tour card this season and enters the week playing some fantastic golf. He finished in a tie for 16th in Florida at the Cognizant Classic and then tied for third in his most recent start at the Puerto Rico Open.
In his past 24 rounds in the field, Perez ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 1oth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Good Drive % and 15th in Bogey Avoidance.
Perez comes in as a perfect fit for Copperhead and offers serious value at triple-digit odds.
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Opinion & Analysis
Myrtle Beach, Explored: February in South Carolina
As I gain in experience and age, and familiarity breeds neither contempt nor disdain, I understand why people return to a place. A destination like Myrtle Beach offers a sizable supply and diversity of restaurants, entertainment venues, and shops that are predicated on the tenets of the service industry. Greet your customers with a smile and a kind word, and they will find comfort and assurance. Provide them with a memorable experience and they will suggest your place of business to others.
My first tour of Myrtle Beach took place in the mid-1980s, and consisted of one course: Gator Hole. I don’t remember much from that day, and since Gator Hole closed a decade later, I cannot revisit it to recollect what I’d lost. Since then, I’ve come to the Grand Strand a few times, and been fortunate to never place a course more than once. I’ve seen the Strantz courses to the south and dipped my toe in the North Carolina courses of Calabash. I’ve been to many in the middle, including Dunes, Pine Lakes, Grande Dunes among them.
2024 brought a quartet of new courses, including two at the Barefoot Resort. I’d heard about the North Myrtle Beach four-pack of courses that highlight the Barefoot property, including layouts from Pete Dye, Tom Fazio, Davis Love III, and Greg Norman. I had the opportunity to play and shoot the Dye and Fazio tracks, which means that I’ll have to return to see the other two. Sandwiched between them were the TPC-Myrtle Beach course, also from Tom Fazio, and the Pawley’s Plantation trace, by the hand of Jack Nicklaus. I anticipated a bit of the heroic, and bit of the strategic, and plenty of eye candy. None of those architects would ever be considered a minimalist, so there would be plenty of in-play and out-of-play bunkers and mounds to tantalize the senses.
My nephew arrived a few days early, to screen a few more courses. As a result, you the reader will have an extra quarter of mini-reviews, bringing the total of courses in this piece to eight. It was inconceivable that CJR would play four courses that I had never played nor photographed, but that was the case. His words appear at the end of this piece. We hope that you enjoy the tour.
Main Feature: Two Barefoots, a TPC, and Pawley’s Plantation
What Paul “Pete” Dye brought back from his trips to the United Kingdom, hearkened back to what C.B. MacDonal did, some 65 years prior. There is a way of finding bunkers and fairways, and even green sites, that does not require major industrial work. The Dye course at Barefoot Resorts takes you on a journey over the rumpled terrain of distant places. If there’s one element missing, it’s the creased and turbulent fairways, so often found in England and Ireland. The one tenet of playing a Dye course, is to always aim away from temptation, from where your eyes draw you. Find the safe side of the target, and you’ll probably find your ball. It then stands that you will have a shot for your next attempt. Cut the corner, and you might have need to reload. The Barefoot course begins gently, in terms of distance, but challenges with visual deception. After two brief 4s and a 3, the real work begins. The course is exposed enough, to allow the coastal winds to dance along the fairways. Be ready to keep the ball low and take an extra club or two.
If memory serves, TPCMB is my first trek around a TPC-branded course. It had all the trappings of a tour course, from the welcome, through the clubhouse, to the practice facilities and, of course, the course. TPC-Myrtle Beach is a Tom Fazio design, and if you never visit Augusta National, you’ll now have an idea of what it is like. You play Augusta’s 16th hole twice at TPCMB, and you enjoy it both times. Fazio really likes the pond-left, green-angle-around par three hole, and his two iterations of it are memorable.
You’ll also see those Augusta bunkers, the ones with the manicured edges that drop into a modestly-circular form. What distinguishes these sand pits is the manner in which they rise from the surrounding ground. They are unique in that they don’t resemble the geometric bunkering of a Seth Raynor, nor the organic pits found in origin courses. They are built, make no mistake, and recovery from them is manageable for all levels of bunker wizardry.
If you have the opportunity to play the two Tom Fazio courses back to back, you’ll notice a marked difference in styling. Let me digress for a moment, then circle back with an explanation. It was written that the NLE World Woods course designed by Fazio, Pine Barrens, was an homage to Pine Valley, the legendary, New Jersey club where Fazio is both a member and the architect on retainer. The Pine Barrens course was plowed under in 2022, so the homage no longer exists. At least, I didn’t think that it existed, until I played his Barefoot Resort course in North Myrtle Beach.
Pine Valley might be described as an aesthetic of scrub and sand. There are mighty, forced carries to travers, along with sempiternal, sandy lairs to avoid. Barefoot Fazio is quite similar. If you’re not faced with a forced carry, you’ll certainly contend with a fairway border or greenside necklace of sand. When you reach the 13th tee, you’ll face a drive into a fairway, and you might see a distant green, with a notable absence: flagstick. The 13th is the icing on the homage cake, a callout of the 8th hole at Pine Valley. Numero Ocho at the OG has two greens, side by side, and they change the manner in which the hole plays (so they say.) At Barefoot Fazio, the right-side green is a traditional approach, with an unimpeded run of fairway to putting surface. The left-side green (the one that I was fortunate to play) demands a pitch shot over a wasteland. It’s a fitting tribute for the rest of us to play.
Be certain to parrot the starter, Leon’s, advice, and play up a deck of tees. Barefoot Fazio offers five par-three holes, so the fours and fives play that much longer. Remember, too, that you are on vacation. Why not treat yourself to some birdie looks?
The Jack Nicklaus course at Pawley’s Plantation emerged from a period of hibernation in 2024. The greens were torn up and their original contours were restored. Work was overseen by Troy Vincent, a member of the Nicklaus Architecture team. In addition, the putting corridors were reseeded with a hardier, dwarf bermuda that has experienced great success, all along the Grand Strand that is Myrtle Beach.
My visit allowed me to see the inward half first, and I understand why the resort wishes to conclude your day on those holes. The front nine of Pawley’s Plantation works its way through familiar, low country trees and wetlands. The back nine begins in similar fashion, then makes its way east, toward the marsh that separates mainland from Pawley’s Island. Recalling the powerful sun of that Wednesday morning, any round beginning on the second nine would face collateral damage from the warming star. Much better to hit holes 11 to close when the sun is higher in the sky.
The marshland holes (12 through 17) are spectacular in their raw, unprotected nature. The winds off the Atlantic are unrelenting and unforgiving, and the twin, par-three holes will remain in your memory banks for time’s march. In typical Golden Bear fashion, a majority of his putting targets are smallish in nature, reflecting his appreciation for accurate approach shots. Be sure to find the forgiving side of each green, and err to that portion. You’ll be grateful.
Bonus Coverage: Myrtlewood, Beechwood, Arrowhead, and King’s North
Arrowhead (Raymond Floyd and Tom Jackson)
A course built in the middle of a community, water threatens on most every hole. The Cypress 9 provides a few holes forcing a carried drive then challenge you with water surrounding the green. On Waterway, a drivable 2nd hole will tempt most, so make sure the group ahead has cleared the green.
Myrtlewood (Edmund Alt and Arthur Hills) and Beechwood (Gene Hamm)
A middle of the winter New Englander’s paradise. Wide open fairways, zero blind shots and light rough allow for shaking off the rust and plenty of forgiveness. A plethora of dog legs cause one to be cautious with every tee shot. Won’t break the bank nor the scorecard.
King’s North @ Myrtle Beach National (Arnold Palmer)
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19th Hole
Vincenzi’s 2024 Players Championship betting preview: Pete Dye specialists ready to pass tough TPC Sawgrass test
The PGA Tour heads to TPC Sawgrass to play in one of the most prestigious and important events of the season: THE PLAYERS Championship. Often referred to as the fifth major, the importance of a PLAYERS victory to the legacy of a golfer can’t be overlooked.
TPC Sawgrass is a par-72 measuring 7,245 yards and featuring Bermudagrass greens. Golfers must be patient in attacking this Pete Dye course.
With trouble lurking at every turn, the strokes can add up quickly. With a par-5 16th that is a true risk-reward hole and the famous par-3 17th island green, the only safe bet at TPC Sawgrass is a bet on an exciting finish.
THE PLAYERS Championship field is often referred to as the strongest field of the year — and with good reason. There are 144 in the field, including 43 of the world’s top 50 players in the OWGR. Tiger Woods will not be playing in the event.
THE PLAYERS is an exceptionally volatile event that has never seen a back-to-back winner.
Past Winners at TPC Sawgrass
- 2023: Scottie Scheffler (-17)
- 2022: Cameron Smith (-13)
- 2021: Justin Thomas (-14)
- 2019: Rory McIlroy (-16)
- 2018: Webb Simpson (-18)
- 2017: Si-Woo Kim (-10)
- 2016: Jason Day (-15)
- 2015: Rickie Fowler (-12)In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value).
5 Key Stats for TPC Sawgrass
Let’s take a look at five metrics key for TPC Sawgrass to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.
1. Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Approach has historically been far and away the most important and predictive stat at THE PLAYERS Championship. With water everywhere, golfers can’t afford to be wild with their iron shots. Not only is it essential to avoid the water, but it will also be as important to go after pins and make birdies because scores can get relatively low.
Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds
- Tom Hoge (+1.37)
- Scottie Scheffler (+1.20)
- Tony Finau (+0.99)
- Jake Knapp (+0.83)
- Shane Lowry (+0.80)
2. Total Driving
This statistic is perfect for TPC Sawgrass. Historically, driving distance hasn’t been a major factor, but since the date switch to March, it’s a bit more significant. During this time of year, the ball won’t carry quite as far, and the runout is also shorter.
Driving accuracy is also crucial due to all of the trouble golfers can get into off of the tee. Therefore, players who are gaining on the field with Total Driving will put themselves in an ideal spot this week.
Total Driving Over Past 24 Rounds
- Rory McIlroy (22)
- Akshay Bhatia (25)
- Keith Mitchell (25)
- Adam Hadwin (34)
- Sam Burns (+39)
3. Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye Designs
TPC Sawgrass may be Pete Dye’s most famous design, and for good reason. The course features Dye’s typical shaved runoff areas and tricky green complexes. Pete Dye specialists love TPC Sawgrass and should have a major advantage this week.
SG: Total (Pete Dye) per round over past 36 rounds:
- Patrick Cantlay (+2.02)
- Scottie Scheffler (+1.90)
- Min Woo Lee (+1.77)
- Sungjae Im (+1.72)
- Brian Harman (+1.62)
4. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking
Prototypical ball-strikers have dominated TPC Sawgrass. With past winners like Sergio Garcia, Henrik Stenson, Webb Simpson, Rory McIlroy and Justin Thomas, it’s evident that golfers must be striking it pure to contend at THE PLAYERS.
SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds
- Scottie Scheffler (+2.02)
- Tony Finau (+1.51)
- Tom Hoge (+1.48)
- Keith Mitchell (+1.38)
- Will Zalatoris (+1.18)
5. Par 5 Average
Par-5 average is extremely important at TPC Sawgrass. With all four of the Par-5s under 575 yards, and three of them under 540 yards, a good amount of the scoring needs to come from these holes collectively.
Par 5 Average Over Past 24 Rounds
- Scottie Schefler (+4.31)
- Erik Van Rooyen (+4.35)
- Doug Ghim (+4.34)
- Wyndham Clark (+4.34)
- Matt Fitzpatrick (+4.31)
6. Strokes Gained: Florida
We’ve used this statistic over the past few weeks, and I’d like to incorporate some players who do well in Florida into this week’s model as well.
Strokes Gained: Florida over past 30 rounds:
- Scottie Schefler (+2.43)
- Erik Van Rooyen (+1.78)
- Doug Ghim (+1.78)
- Wyndham Clark (+1.73)
- Matt Fitzpatrick (+1.69)
7. Strokes Gained: Total on Courses with High Water Danger
With water everywhere at TPC Sawgrass, the blow-up potential is high. It can’t hurt to factor in some players who’ve avoided the “eject” button most often in the past.
Strokes Gained: Total on Courses with High Water Danger over past 30 rounds:
- Scottie Schefler (+2.08)
- Rory McIlroy (+1.82)
- Tony Finau (+1.62)
- Patrick Cantlay (+1.51)
- Will Zalatoris (+1.49)
THE PLAYERS Championship Model Rankings
Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (25%), Total Driving (20%), SG: Total Pete Dye (14%), SG: Ball-striking (15%) SG: Par 5 (8%), SG: Florida (10%) and SG: High Water (8%).
- Scottie Scheffler
- Shane Lowry
- Tony Finau
- Corey Conners
- Keith Mitchell
- Justin Thomas
- Will Zalatoris
- Xander Schauffele
- Cameron Young
- Doug Ghim
- Sam Burns
- Chris Kirk
- Collin Morikawa
- Si Woo Kim
- Wyndham Clark
2024 THE PLAYERS Championship Picks
(All odds at the time of writing)
Patrick Cantlay +2500 (DraftKings):
Patrick Cantlay is winless since the 2022 BMW Championship but is undoubtedly one of the most talented players on the PGA Tour. Since the win at Wilmington Country Club, the 31-year-old has twelve top-10 finishes on Tour and is starting to round into form for the 2024 season.
Cantlay has done well in the most recent “signature” events this season, finishing 4th at Riviera for the Genesis Invitational and 12th at Bay Hill for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. The former Tour Championship winner resides in Jupiter, Florida and has played some good golf in the state, including finishing in a tie for 4th at the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational. His history at TPC Sawgrass has been up and down, but his best career start at The PLAYERS came last year when he finished in a tie for 19th.
Cantlay absolutely loves Pete Dye designed courses and ranks 1st in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on Dye tracks in his past 36 rounds. In recent years, he’s been excellent at both the RBC Heritage and the Travelers Championship. TPC Sawgrass is a place where players will have to be dialed in with their irons and distance off the tee won’t be quite as important. In his past 24, rounds, Cantlay ranks in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach.
Despite being winless in recent years, I still believe Cantlay is capable of winning big tournaments. As one of the only United States players to bring their best game to Marco Simone for the Ryder Cup, I have conviction that the former top amateur in the world can deliver when stakes are high.
Will Zalatoris +3000 (FanDuel):
In order to win at TPC Sawgrass, players will need to be in total control of their golf ball. At the moment, Will Zalatoris is hitting it as well as almost anyone and finally has the putter cooperating with his new switch to the broomstick style.
Zalatoris is coming off back-to-back starts where he absolutely striped the ball. He finished 2nd at the Genesis Invitational and 4th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational where his statistics were eye opening. For the week at Bay Hill, Zal gained 5.0 strokes on approach and 5.44 strokes off the tee.
Throughout the early part of his career, Zalatoris has established himself by playing his best golf in the strongest fields with the most difficult conditions. A tough test will allow him to separate himself this week and breakthrough for a PLAYERS Championship victory.
Shane Lowry +4000 (DraftKings):
History has shown us that players need to be in good form to win the PLAYERS Championship and it’s hard to find anyone not named Scottie Scheffler who’s in better form that Shane Lowry at the moment. He finished T4 at the Cognizant Classic followed by a solo third place finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
The fact that the Irishman contended at Bay Hill is a great sign considering he’s really struggled there throughout his career. He will now head to a different style of course in Florida where he’s had a good deal of success. He finished 8th at TPC Sawgrass in 2021 and 13th in 2022.
Lowry ranks 6th in the field in approach in his past 24 rounds, 7th in Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye designed courses in his last 30 rounds, 8th in par 5 scoring this season, and 4th in Strokes Gained: Total in Florida over his past 36 rounds.
Lowry is a player who’s capable of winning big events. He’s a major champion and won another premier event at Wentworth as well as a WGC at Firestone. He’s also a form player, when he wins it’s typically when he’s contended in recent starts. He’s been terrific thus far in Florida and he should get into contention once again this week.
Brian Harman +8000 (DraftKings):
(Note: Since writing this Harman’s odds have plummeted to 50-1. I would not advise betting the 50).
Brian Harman showed us last season that if the course isn’t extremely long, he has the accuracy both off the tee and with his irons to compete with anyone in the world. Last week at Bay Hill and was third in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, gaining 5.54 strokes on the field in the category.
In addition to the strong iron play, Harman also gained strokes off the tee in three of four rounds. He’s also had success at Pete Dye tracks recently. He finished 2nd at last year’s Travelers Championship and 7th at the RBC Heritage.
It would be a magnificent feat for Harman to win both the Open Championship and PLAYERS in a short time frame, but the reality is the PGA Tour isn’t quite as strong as it once was. Harman is a player who shows up for the biggest events and his odds seem way too long for his recent track record.
Tony Finau +6500 (FanDuel):
A few weeks ago, at the Genesis Invitational, I bet Hideki Matsuyama because I believed it to be a “bet the number” play at 80-1. I feel similarly about Finau this week. While he’s not having the season many people expected of him, he is playing better than these odds would indicate.
This season, Tony has a tied for 6th place finish at Torrey Pines, a tied for 19th at Riviera and tied for 13th at the Mexico Open. He’s also hitting the ball extremely well. In the field in his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Approach, 3rd in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Par 5 average and 15th in Total Driving.
Finau’s problem has been with the putter, which has been undeniably horrific. However, this week he will see a putting surface similar to the POA at TPC Scottsdale and PGA West, which he’s had a great deal of success on. It’s worth taking a stab at this price to see if he can have a mediocre week with the flat stick.
Sungjae Im +9000 (FanDuel):
It’s been a lackluster eighteen months for Sungjae, who once appeared to be a certain star. While his ceiling is absolutely still there, it’s been a while since we’ve seen Im play the type of golf expected of a player with his talent.
Despite the obvious concerns, the South Korean showed glimpses of a return to form last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He tied for 18th place and gained strokes off the tee, on approach, around the green and with the putter. When at his best, Im is a perfect course fit for TPC Sawgrass. He has remarkable precision off the tee, can get dialed in with his irons on shorter courses and can get up and down with the best players on Tour.
This number has gotten to the point where I feel comfortable taking a shot on it.
Billy Horschel +20000 (FanDuel):
Billy Horschel is a great fit on paper for TPC Sawgrass. He can get dialed in with his irons and his lack of distance off the tee won’t be a major detriment at the course. “Bermuda Billy” does his best work putting on Bermudagrass greens and he appears to be rounding into form just in time to compete at The PLAYERS.
In his most recent start, Billy finished in a tie for 9th at the Cognizant Classic and hit the ball extremely well. The former Florida Gator gained 3.32 strokes on approach and 2.04 strokes off the tee. If Horschel brings that type of ball striking to TPC Sawgrass, he has the type of putter who can win a golf tournament.
Horschel has been great on Pete Dye designed courses, with four of his seven career PGA Tour wins coming on Dye tracks.
In a season that has seen multiple long shots win big events, the 37-year-old is worth a stab considering his knack for playing in Florida and winning big events.
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Brains a golfer
Jul 22, 2017 at 1:03 pm
I would agree that having more Women PGA club professionals and assistants would grow the game. Most young players, juniors and older men ( me ) should strive to hit the ball like an LPGA player. I watched the US women’s open, and almost every drive was in the fairway – Isn’t Fairways and greens the goal? I suppose every man dreams of the 300 yard drive and a sand wedge to the green- but how likely is that? Maybe playing the right set of tees, and hitting a smooth driver and 8 iron (like the Ladies) is the way to both get better AND have more fun.
After playing golf for 30 years, i realize that for 20 of those years i was trying to swing like the PGA pros or scratch golfers. Now that i am older i take MY swing.
Tom54
Jul 5, 2017 at 8:56 pm
I agree a mixed team event with a decent purse would definitely get the gals attention since their paydays are pale compared to the men. Those of you that dismiss their quality of play have not seen a LPGA event. They can flat out play!! Yes they can’t bomb 350 us tee balls routinely like the big boys but I’d be willing to bet they would impress even the skeptics. I know this sounds sexist but there is nothing wrong with watching pretty ladies play this game we all love. Next time one of their events is nearby do yourself a favor and check these gals out. You’ll be impressed for sure.
ctmanic
Jul 5, 2017 at 4:43 pm
Yup, good article. All great points. Female golf pros and just let them wear more normal clothes that aren’t designed for a freaking cheerleader are great starting points. But a clubful of entitled men acting like lewd teenagers, just sucks. Women are safer in a biker bar… …and that is not a freaking joke.
asugrad1988
Jul 5, 2017 at 2:16 pm
This past weekend there was the European tour golf tournament, the Senior Open, the PGA tournament and the LPGA’s KPMG major. How many people are going to watch the LPGA over the other three tournaments. That’s four tournaments on the weekend and I would bet the farm that the LPGA was the least viewed.
My solution would be to have LPGA tournaments during the week, say Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday if it’s a four day tournament. I think a lot of people would watch the LPGA if it was the only golf on television.I don’t think it would matter much if the golf came on at 2:00 pm or 5:00 pm if it’s on the west coast. I don’t know anyone at my club that watches any tournament live anyway regardless of what tour it is. Way to many commercials. If the Golf Channel is doing the broadcast like they do almost all of them, then they have the weekend to travel to the next tournament.
I think the LPGA should try 2 or 3 tournaments in the middle of the week and see how it goes.
Za
Jul 6, 2017 at 2:19 am
You know the majority of the world still work Mon thru Fri, bud. LPGA already don’t get enough money through selling tickets to their events. So how are they going to bring in that money during the week? It’s not all about television, although it is already hard enough to get sponsors commercials to get the events to even get on TV.
I think you should shut up for a year and see how it goes.
setter02
Jul 7, 2017 at 8:19 am
LPGA isn’t a gate driven Tour, if it was, it would have folded up long ago. Its actually not a bad idea given it would have coverage time that wouldn’t compete with other Tours, and not much other sports are on in the mornings and early afternoon (save some mid day baseball). I think you should shut up for a year and see how that goes…
Za
Jul 7, 2017 at 8:05 pm
I work in TV. You don’t know how it works. Every sporting event at this level is majorly viewer-oriented, and that includes tickets. If it didn’t have problems with viewership even on TV, then you wouldn’t be addressing this issue with the above suggestions.
It’s bad enough that day-time TV during the week is driven by commercial moneys of home-products for the housewives who stay at home. Golf can’t support itself with just those kinds of sponsors of home products.
I think you should sit on a bicycle without a seat and swivel
Laff
Jul 7, 2017 at 8:47 pm
lol swivel
setter02
Jul 8, 2017 at 2:14 pm
Awww poor baby got his feelings hurt. You have a potential captive target market that is trying to get more females into this game. Good thing crazy ideas never pan out or are tried, I mean where would this world be with all the beige people like you running it pro? Maybe try and use your supposed ‘expertise’ to solve a problem rather than continue to be a part of it, I mean you are that good aren’t you pro?
ders
Jul 5, 2017 at 2:06 pm
Vancouver BC has 3 municpal short par 3 courses, neighbouring Burnaby has 2, West Vancouver has 1, Ricmond has 1. They are less than $15 for 18 holes, most are hazard free and are always packed anytime it isn’t raining. Midweek during the day is all seniors, evenings and weekends are drunken teens and twenty-somethings – most are male but you do see a lot of female players.. Make golf cheap, fun and relaxed and people will come and the game will live on. This won’t “save golf” if by “saving golf” you mean supporting a bloated golf industry, exclusive clubs and 7000+ yd courses but people will play golf if its available to them.
Mat
Jul 14, 2017 at 7:25 pm
Excellent point.
Big Wally
Jul 5, 2017 at 1:31 pm
This is a never ending argument. Every time it is a “problem” that is the fault of men and patronizingly the responsibility of men to fix it. Women aren’t stupid. They can decide for themselves what they want to do and with whom and they do.
If there was such a great opportunity for women teachers- where are they? Couldn’t the LPGA and PGA of America let them know they are in such huge demand? Or is the truth closer to supply meets demand?
Bruce Ferguson
Jul 4, 2017 at 10:04 pm
I think more network (non-Golf Channel) weekend coverage of LPGA events would give more exposure of the game to women. Alternate LPGA/PGA Tour coverage on the networks. GC will re-run PGA Tour coverage later, anyway. Practically all tour coverage on network television is men’s golf. No wonder most women have a preconceived notion that golf is a man’s sport. Golf is a perfect sport for women.
Mb
Jul 5, 2017 at 3:44 am
But the attendance figures and the sheer TV viewer ratings doesn’t support financially what women’s golf bring in to justify more coverage. No major channel is going to spend money on things nobody watches. That’s why shows get cancelled. In the case of golf, the tournaments go on, just not with TV coverage. Advertisers won’t cough up the dollars if nobody is going to watch their commercials.
Jesus Woods
Jul 4, 2017 at 3:55 pm
Put a bunch of old women on the course hitting 40 yd drives (when they don’t completely miss the ball) and putting out for a 16 and see how much it “grows”
BlubberButt
Jul 5, 2017 at 10:39 am
How is that different than a bunch of old men hitting 40 yard drives and putting for 16?
Kevin
Jul 24, 2017 at 2:44 pm
Because the women’s drives would find the fairway
Matt
Jul 4, 2017 at 1:30 pm
How about a world tour of US, Europe and Asia’s premier men’s tournaments? We need a global tour for golf to grow. The regional PGA tours could be more grassroots, combining q-school, web.com, and some of the smaller events currently in each regional PGA Tour.
Jacked_Loft
Jul 4, 2017 at 7:55 am
Mike, I think you make a viable point.
At my home course there are 4 (from 10 pros or 40%) fully quailifed female professionals, and they’re always booked out. The number of female players here accounts for about 30% of the total membership, and women from the surrounding clubs use us as their practice grounds.
Nath
Jul 4, 2017 at 3:44 am
I clicked on this article to look at the pictures, hmm dissapointed. Just like my local course nothing to see there either, yea golf sucks when its soo dry.
Mat
Jul 4, 2017 at 1:55 am
This is absolutely true. I’ve gone out of my way to find women instructors for my wife because the simple fact is that women play a more efficient and less power driven game. They also have boobs, and that can be an uncomfortable subject. So can hips. And if you think this is overblown, how’s Curves (and other female only gyms) doing? Why do you see women playing those exec courses more? And usually from the mens tees?
I would love nothing more than to get my wife playing more. She caddies for me far more than she plays, and I really love and hate it at the same time. And guys, at least the ones that aren’t sexist jerks, understand that they have a lot to learn from the women’s game wrt efficient body motion and swing control.
Great article, and absolutely true.
Alex
Jul 3, 2017 at 8:50 pm
Sexism of any kind is not the answer.
Dec
Jul 4, 2017 at 1:14 pm
“yer blind or neutered or religiously suppressed…. or a politically correct leftist post-modernist liberal troll.”
You really don’t know anything have no decency, huh? You’re so clueless you probably wonder how Obama won the election, don’t you? SO sad.
Rex
Jul 3, 2017 at 8:36 pm
Sigmund Freud. Isn’t that the guy who got attacked by the lion in vegas?
ooffa
Jul 3, 2017 at 8:19 pm
OMG, you’re scary. Not in a good way.
Ude
Jul 3, 2017 at 9:40 pm
NO its you who is {{{{scary}}}} and ^^^^sick^^^^
S
Jul 3, 2017 at 5:47 pm
Ohhhhhh you’re one of them Seinfeld losers! Figures
Traj
Jul 3, 2017 at 7:22 pm
You’re the biggest juvenile here who can’t resist bashing the geargeads here who actually have fun with the equipment designs. How pathetic do you want to be? A loser who quotes stupid things from a stupid show like Seinfeld, that’s who.
ooffa
Jul 6, 2017 at 9:59 am
You know what he meant. Please do not admit you are not smart enough to recognize a typo.
Shallowface
Jul 3, 2017 at 5:37 pm
It has never ceased to amaze me how poorly the business of golf has treated women players. When a course ‘s original design has become too long for the average lady due to a poor original design or the fact that it is maintained much wetter than it used to be, do they build a new forward tee box? No. They just drop a couple of tee markers someplace down the fairway, often presenting a sidehill lie. Overly deep rough is another issue. If it’s too deep for me, it’s WAY too deep for a lady. Last, but certainly not least, is the lack of decent restroom facilities. Often times there is NOTHING on either nine, not even a port-a-let. A lady can’t sidle up to a tree like a guy can, and in this day where everything is subject to being videoed a guy has to be careful where he marks his territory. Nothing says “don’t play here” to women like not having decent facilities, and a course developer who was so short sighted that he didn’t include that in his planning deserves to fail. It’s just one more example of how the game is dying by its own hand. If the management of the game wants to know why it is failing, the answer is in the mirror.
freowho
Jul 4, 2017 at 5:34 am
Good post. Golf courses are still built for the top 1% of golfers and everyone else has to adapt. Having a handicap doesn’t help you get out of a 6 foot deep bunker, stop the ball rolling off the other side of the green or replace the 6 golf balls you have lost. Players are willing to accept that I played bad and deserve to have a bad score but they don’t accept that because I’m a bad golfer I should have to spend all day raking bunkers, looking for my ball, holding everyone up and embarrassing myself. You also don’t 10 bunkers per hole to seperate good and bad golf. 1 well placed bunker or a well designed green will seperate good and bad golf.
The clubs that survive will be those that understand how to keep the majority coming back for another game.
setter02
Jul 4, 2017 at 7:22 am
Yeah I hate people who know their basic target market and serve them, but didn’t figure out how to appease the finicky unicorn golfers… Personally I’d hate to have to design a course where the vast majority of female players still hit driver into 120y par 3’s, and come up short… You design a course from the back up, not the other way around, a 4k set of tees is always going to be a complete after thought, as it should.
Shallowface
Jul 4, 2017 at 5:03 pm
If your “target market” is 1% of any group (and I am in that 1%, by the way), you are doomed to fail. You don’t design a course from the back up if you are designing for recreational players. From what I see, it’s the 7000 plus tees that are the complete after thought, as they are being added to existing designs today due to the USGA’s total failure to regulate equipment. But when they are added, they are level and actually look like tee boxes, unlike what is often done for ladies.
With your mindset, you must be in the golf business. I love women and love seeing them on the golf course. It’s interesting to say the least how many men I’ve run into over the years who don’t feel that way.
ooffa
Jul 5, 2017 at 7:14 am
WHAT is wrong with you? You should consider not posting if you are going to continually say inappropriate or foolish things. Let someone else read your posts before hitting enter. Hopefully that person will help prevent you further embarrassing yourself.
Tom Duckworth
Jul 3, 2017 at 4:59 pm
Great read I would really like to see some events on TV with men and women golfers playing as teams it would be great TV, make it almost a Ryder Cup type of event with teams playing for their countries. There also needs to be a women’s Masters. I have a granddaughter that loves playing and is on the cusp of being a very good golfer but only sees men on TV and her friends tell her golf is an old mans game. She plays in a summer league and she is about the only girl playing.
I have found a a LPGA teacher in my town and plan to take her to meet her for lessons.