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Are We Destroying Young Golfers?

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For parents and coaches alike, the logic versus the reality of junior golf development can often be two totally different things. With dropout rates so high in sports, the messages in this article need to be spread if we are to encourage lifelong participation in sport.  Specifically, I will highlight three vital points that I believe all parents and coaches involved in youth golf need to understand.

No. 1: Early Specialization

Logic: “The more he or she plays one sport, the better he or she will get.”

Reality: Research shows that early specialization is one of the most cited reasons for dropouts in sport. Below are some key reasons why.

  • Early Success: If a young child is only playing one sport, and playing it quite a lot, I would expect them to get better quickly and potentially become the best in the class. The reality of this, however, is that they can often then struggle with the psychological pressures that accompany this success, consequently leading to frustration and falling out of love with the game.
  • High Expectations: High expectations are heavily linked with early success, as the expectations of a child, parents, family, and friends become very high. The issue here is that when a child reaches a natural performance plateau and other children catch up, the child then faces pressure. The question becomes, “You were the best two years ago. Why are you not the best now?”Child I love Golf
  • Performance Anxiety: As a child specializes in one sport, the level of competition and also the number of competitions played will inevitably increase. The issue here is that the motivation to play can change. Children often switch from playing sports to have fun with their friends to trying to make Daddy happy by playing well and winning.
  • Injuries: A child has a child’s body, meaning it can be sensitive to overexertion and repeated exercise.
  • Isolation: Being away from friends (as you are always at the golf club) can cause children to pay a huge social price. Children need time for Lego and Pokémon with friends and should not be at the golf course for 10 hours every day.
  • Burnout: Too much of one thing and a child will burn out. There simply becomes a time when enough is enough.

The underlying issue with the above is that the motivations of a child can change from starting the game and loving it (intrinsic motivation). The game becomes more than just fun, and too many things outside of a child’s love become important (extrinsic motivation). Ultimately, maintaining a child’s intrinsic motivation is crucial for long-term participation, so why would we harm this? The tweet below from Dr. Martin Toms at the University of Birmingham sums it up perfectly.

“If your child could only study one subject at school, you’d worry about their development and the missed opportunities for them to learn new skills. So why for some sports/coaches is early specialization perceived as acceptable?”

But Tiger Woods and Rory McIlroy played loads when they were kids, right? Yes, I get that, but understand that they are the ultimate outliers. For the one or two children that followed what Rory and Tiger did and made it to the PGA Tour, there are thousands of young golfers who quit the game from the burnout that can be caused by early specialization. There are also hundreds of people who came to golf later in life — Nick Faldo being the best example, not starting the game until 13 years of age — and became highly successful.

Further Reading: Do a quick google search on Oscar Sharpe Golf. Unfortunately, Oscar no longer plays competitive golf and is a great example of how early success may not always result in long-term success.

No. 2: Instruction

Childs Brain (3)

Logic: “I see what’s wrong. If I tell him/her this, I’m sure they will get better.”

Reality: A young child cannot mentally process overloads of information. Also, is golf really fun for children when someone is standing there telling you what to do, shot after shot? And when did a young child ever want to listen to Mom or Dad? What top athlete ever thanked their parents for coaching them?

My thoughts on youth golf instruction are three-fold:

  1. Children do need golf instruction, but it must be carefully delivered at the right times. Leave it to a coach you trust.
  2. Growth spurts can affect coordination in such a way that any previous technical work can become worthless.
  3. Developing psychological tools/traits is more advantageous than technical work, as these skills will stay with a child forever.

No. 3: The Car Ride Home

Logic: “My child needs me to honestly evaluate their play so they will be more motivated to play better next time.”

Reality: Children know full well if they have performed their best, and I would urge parents and coaches to use some of the following phrases instead of criticizing:

  • “I love watching you play.”
  • “How did you feel about today’s game?”
  • “What do think you can improve for next time?”
  • “So, what do you fancy for tea tonight?” (remember, I’m from the UK).

Child under pressureIt can seem logical that being more critical with a child will not do any harm, and instead help them improve… but research has shown that consistent criticism can totally disengage a child. They become less focused on playing and enjoying their sport, and more focused about not being criticized on the car ride home.

The Answer

The truth is that junior sports development is highly complex and we as coaches cannot provide ONE answer to help your child succeed in his or her sport. What we can do, however, is draw upon the research and use this to guide our actions.

Here are three additional tips to pass on to fellow parents. Or better yet, pass on this article!

  • Take Care with Early Specialization: Success too early, injuries, and burnout can cause many long-term problems with children, starting with a loss of passion for a sport or skill they have. If your child has a passion for golf, that’s great. And if they are good, that’s also great. Manage their expectations while helping them strike the correct balance between their passion for golf and other activities.
  • Coaches: Remember that an overload of instruction is not good for a fully grown adult, so it’s certainly not good for a child. Parents need to remember that their primary responsibility is to be a parent, not a coach.
  • Parents: On the car ride home, put yourself in the shoes of your child before offering any criticism or feedback. You may unintentionally pushing your child away from the game they love and put pressure on them that can lead to failure.

References: Understanding dropout and prolonged engagement in adolescent competitive sport (Jessica Fraser Thomas, Jean Cote, Janice Deaking).

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Thomas is an Advanced UKPGA Professional and Director of the Future Elite (FUEL) Junior Golf Programme. Thomas is a big believer in evidence based coaching and has enjoyed numerous worldwide coaching experiences. His main aim to introduce and help more golfers enjoy the game, by creating unique environments that best facilitate improvement.

29 Comments

29 Comments

  1. Rano

    Aug 18, 2017 at 4:14 am

    “What top athlete ever thanked their parents for coaching them?”

    Tiger Woods? The Williams sisters? Andy Murray? Jamie Murray?

  2. www.youtube.com

    Jul 29, 2017 at 2:00 pm

    Along with books, many games use colour in part to
    make them appealing to young children while teaching
    them about colour.

  3. matt_bear

    Jul 29, 2017 at 12:50 pm

    When i was in middle school during the early/mid 90’s golf and tennis were laughed at. Kids who played it got picked on. Big difference from today.

    There’s a ton of money and fame out there right now. Life changing amounts of money. All the high school and college kids today were born right as the Tiger era begin, because the Tiger era brought all the money, fame, and hype. Parents are “investing” in their kids because it’s a lotto ticket for a chance to get pulled out of the low/middle class and into elite status. The reality is that it’s a cut throat world, and you realize that as you get older.

    It’s also “funny” how teens who play high level sports are getting bigger/faster/muscular. They 16-17 year olds out there looking like ripped 28 year old competitive body builders. It happened with football and basketball first (because there was greater amounts of money and fame), but it’s now tricking over to tennis and golf. Just makes you go “hmm”…

  4. CM

    Jul 28, 2017 at 9:57 am

    Thank you for the article. As a former college athlete and the father of four multi-sport athletes, I feel like I have seen some of the best and worst of youth sports. First, I think its really a positive if kids can play at least 1 individual sport and 1 team sport. They learn responsibility to team as well as themselves. Second, no matter how much crazy parents want/need their children to excel at a sport; kids aren’t going to excel unless they are practicing/playing on their own, when no one is watching. In otherwords, are they having fun playing the sport. Personally, we are having a lot of fun as a family playing this great game together.

  5. John

    Jul 28, 2017 at 9:06 am

    I have been a high school golf coach and run a junior golf program in a summer. I’m 55 and have been playing since I was ten. I played a scruffy 9 hole muni from the time we got out of school until school started again (3 months). Our parents would drop 10-12 of us off everyday and we would play 27 a day Monday-Friday. We all became pretty good players (single digits) and three became head professionals at our area clubs. But basically we played 3 months of golf then moved on to the next sport when school started.

    Today the burnout factor is real. One player I watched was bigger than the other kids from the ages of 12-15. So he it the ball farther and was shooting mid 70s because of his length and wining area tournaments. Because he was “the best” he was pushed to hit balls all winter, play numerous tournaments (when he just wanted to play with his friends at his home course), and take lessons. Another boy was not very big and shot a lot of low to mid 80s from 12-15 and became frustrated he could never beat “the best” – but after golf season he went on t play hockey. A funny thing happened on the way to HS graduation. “The best” kept shooting his 73-77s, but the others kept growing and they hit it as far and also shot 73-77 as their distance improved. The “other boy” won the HS championship his senior year and went on to have an excellent college career at a D-3 school and still plays competitively today in his mid 20s. But “the best” didn’t like that he wasn’t the best any more and went to school for one semester to play golf but dropped out and has not played since. This is a true story and I have seen it over and over, again and again.

  6. M S m i z z l e

    Jul 28, 2017 at 8:20 am

    Peds at an early age to hit the ball farther is destroying young golfers…..
    Appears to have taken out a few older ones too

  7. Matt

    Jul 28, 2017 at 5:47 am

    The support for young athletes now seems pretty amazing compared to a couple decades ago when I competed as a young guy. The question I’ve never figured out an answer to, is how big a factor specialisation plays toward kids chances of maintaining interest in the long term.

  8. Patrick

    Jul 27, 2017 at 4:55 pm

    My oldest son played in the NHL and is still playing professionally in Europe. I got him into golf to get him out of rinks and the rat race associated with hockey. This article is spot on and I wanted him to play at least a couple of sports for variety and, a different set of friends. Golf’s community is far more relaxed and ethical. Plus, you get out doors and walk a ton.
    I wanted a sport that we could play together along with his siblings for a long time. Unfortunately, he hardly plays because of travel and time. I’m holding on that when things settle down in his life we’ll be able to get together often in the summer.

  9. Brian

    Jul 27, 2017 at 3:58 pm

    I think specialization hurts athletes in the long run, unless they’re specializing in a sport that already requires almost all levels of athleticism, like basketball (Speed, agility, strength, power, coordination, endurance, etc). There are athletic traits that carry over between sports that are better developed from other sports. Golfers, baseball players…they’ll benefit by playing other sports that help them build skills that golf alone will not.

    • DP

      Jul 28, 2017 at 2:25 am

      You’re so completely wrong about basketball in relation to other athletic activities no wonder people misunderstand golf just as much. Different skill sets mean different results – therefore different sports and different kinds of coordination. The funniest thing is watching a basketball player try to play soccer, and vice versa. So basketball is a very specialist sport, just as golf or soccer is, and therefore your example fails pretty badly. Even baseball……. the best golfers in baseball are pitchers, not batters. Figure that into your equation. Nobody will ever want to get coached by you, that’s for sure.

      • MJ

        Jul 28, 2017 at 7:09 am

        DP you are a spank for the last sentence. Troll.

        • Peddler

          Jul 28, 2017 at 11:46 am

          Is he a spank or troll? Make up your mind. Or did you sign off your name as a Troll? lmao

      • Brian

        Jul 28, 2017 at 1:13 pm

        You completely lost the entire point in my post. Nowhere did I state that in order to be good at golf, you should play basketball. Of course you need to work the most on the sport in which you wish to excel, but you’re going to develop other athletic talents that your chosen sport along might not teach. Pitchers are better golfers because they only play one out of every 5 games and have much more time to play golf than position players. Position players also don’t want to ruin their baseball swing by playing a lot of golf.

        A soccer player WHO ALSO PLAYS BASKETBALL is going to develop skills that he won’t by playing soccer along.

        Reading comprehension…

        • We

          Jul 28, 2017 at 1:37 pm

          Then you need to learn to express yourself and write properly. Don’t put it on others for not understanding what you so miserably fail to explain in the first place. And fix your typos before you hit the Post Comment button. Immature buffoon that youse are

  10. Brad T

    Jul 27, 2017 at 2:37 pm

    As a 30 yr old looking back at my early athletic days i couldnt agree more. I would be thinking of the car ride home during the game. You dont have to overspend and re mortgage the farm, if your kids good enough they’ll find him.

    • GK

      Jul 27, 2017 at 3:18 pm

      Exactly, college scouts are really good at spotting raw potential. Mostly they are looking at raw size, speed, and power over skill level. Superior athletics can be molded into what they want. But undersized kids and kids with overdeveloped skill stands right out as ‘peaked already, pass’.

  11. GK

    Jul 27, 2017 at 1:45 pm

    Save your time and money on this ‘travel ball’ special sports scam. Most of the young ‘prodigies’ are simply kids whose hormones kicked in early making them more mature. When the other kids catch up many find out they weren’t that special and quit. You have ‘coaches’ making a living off of parents whose money would have been better saved for college rather than shooting for an athletic scholarship.

  12. jkumpire

    Jul 27, 2017 at 1:38 pm

    After being involved in sports for over 50 years I have to make a few comments.

    BC is both right and wrong, but sadly his takedown of the article is incorrect. Some kids do quite well concentrating on one sport. On the high school level, especially if they get proper rest, time off from the sport for conditioning and rest, and have other healthy activities they do so they have a balance in life, they can be very successful in their chosen sport.

    However, recent data shows pretty clearly that over-specialization in one sport is not good for almost everyone. There are more injuries from overuse than ever before, especially when kids do not take time off to rest their bodies or do activities/conditioning/other sports that strengthen other parts or even sides of the body than are heavily used in their chosen sport. Maybe not so much in golf, but in many other sports college coaches and recruiters shy away from athletes who specialize in only one sport. They want to see athletes, not just specialists, and that means succeeding in other sports than their chosen one.

    The issue of burnout is becoming a problem , especially in children of middle-school and early high school age. When they play a sport from a very young age, by the time they are in later middle of early high school (i.e. 8-9 grade) many, many kids quit because of burnout. They want to do something else and have more time for other things in their high school years. Part of the problem is that more and more high school sports programs demand more and more time spent on one sport because of the pressure of winning is getting too important, forgetting that the end of HS athletics is not winning, but the physical, mental, and social growth of the participants so they become excellent, well-rounded adults who function well in society.

    The things the author talks about are pretty much not in dispute, unless you are one who is able to handle the sacrifices of concentrating on one sport and has a support group to help you, Specialization, especially at a young age is not a good idea. and parents (or more often than not THE parent) these days need to understand how to treat kids, and coaches, and in some sports officials in such a way as to make the sports experience fun and part of their healthy growth and development.

    Golf is a tough sport to play competitively, we all know that. It is not really a team sport and it takes a lot of time and effort to play well. And like all sports very, very few people even make it to college to play (like 2.3% of all HS athletes in all sports play in college at any level), and the percentage of college athletes who become professionals is microscopically small.

    The author correctly speaks about how to make the sport or sports a kid plays a great experience for the rest their lives, not just until they are 13, 18, and out of Daddy’s house, or 21-22.

  13. Lloyd

    Jul 27, 2017 at 12:31 pm

    Children should learn to run and jump and generally use their bodies before they specialize so they can have an all-round athletic body and participate in many sports. Parents should put a priority on academics, not athletics in today’s world. Earning a living in sports is like winning the big lottery; the odds are stacked against your child. If athletics is all you can offer your child, you are a failure as a parent.

  14. OL

    Jul 27, 2017 at 12:20 pm

    Key word: Outliers. THAT’s the reality, actually. It’s just a matter of percentages. If you had 1 million people who wanted to get into a space of 100,000, you’ll always have 900,000 who can’t get in. That’s life. There’ll always be ones who are successful and those who aren’t. All this explanation in this article is just a load of hogwash and psychobabble. If your kid is one of those 900,000, oh well. That’s just how reality is. That’s why the ones who are successful and stay successful all the way through are seen to be amazing. But it’s not. What this article needs to look at is the same statistical analysis in sports like Gymnastics and what it takes to be on the Olympics teams, and how many get left behind and don’t make it in that career. Where do all the kids go, who don’t make it?

    • Biddles

      Aug 4, 2017 at 2:15 pm

      “All this explanation in this article is just a load of hogwash and psychobabble.”

      You ENTIRELY missed the point of the article. Gosh, may as well have thrown in some snowflake references for good measure.

      “What this article needs to look at is the same statistical analysis in sports like Gymnastics and what it takes to be on the Olympics teams, and how many get left behind and don’t make it in that career.”

      Not once did the article mention making golf a career. It didn’t mention scholarships. It didn’t mention money.

      The point of the article is in the very FIRST paragraph: “to encourage lifelong participation in sport.”

      The article is about not burning out young golfers so they can continue to enjoy the sport throughout their lives.

  15. BC

    Jul 27, 2017 at 7:50 am

    This is your typical modern “guilt” article. You writers are bored and frustrated with the lack of news in the golf world, so you write puff pieces like this to try and stir the pot. All of the “feel” good crybabies talking about equal rights for everything in this world. Makes me sick. Kids that play high school level sports are mostly “average” at best right now. Everything is watered down because everyone is supposed to feel like a big important champion. When my son gets cut from the golf team (which is very likely) I will tell him to not be surprised. This is a solo sport and it’s his own fault. Sounds harsh right? Truth is, he just picked up a club and starting taking it serious this summer. He is not prepared to play at a varsity level. (even a watered down version of varsity) He does not have interest in any other sports. He also started playing to be a companion on the course with me. (Not to “please” daddy… but to learn a sport that will allow him to gain a common ground in business, and pleasure.) I’m so tired of writers that were probably picked on in the past, having the outlet to vent and try to teach others how we are supposed to raise our kids. If parents would pull their kids faces out of the iPhones and social media garbage and take the time to drive them to the sports that are out there… the 3 sport kids would return. Parents are using their lack of time and energy as an excuse to keep the kids in a one sport program. Financially and availability is the biggest burdens. It’s the path of least resistance. DO YOU HAVE ANY IDEA how much money is involved if you have three kids that play three sports (travel and high school???) My kids stupid PUBLIC high school makes them pay to play!!!!!!! So let’s multiple the 3 kids and 3 sports times two! How much time and money is left???? Seriously… this article is clearly written by some bleeding heart, Prius driver that thinks the world should just be so equal and fair. Stop putting ideas into peoples heads to make them feel guilty for doing the best they can.

    • Jebaited

      Jul 27, 2017 at 8:29 am

      Are you okay?

    • Judge Smeills

      Jul 27, 2017 at 3:16 pm

      you sounds like your having a heart attack, you don’t have to read the whole article if you don’t like it.

    • PXG PRO

      Jul 27, 2017 at 4:26 pm

      Wow. That is really some harsh stuff you laid out there. I hope you never have to coach a team or are disappointed when your kid isn’t a PGA pro in exactly 18 years from birth.

    • Prime21

      Jul 27, 2017 at 9:11 pm

      Couldn’t agree more, well said! I’m sure many will find your comments harsh & throw some personal attacks your way, but I, for one, never find it wrong to call a spade a spade. For those who are going to throw shade at BC, do we not agree that everyone is entitled to their opinion? Call him an angry hater, call him whatever makes you feel better about standing up for your belief, but realize that you calling him out is NO DIFFERENT than him calling the author of this article out.

      • Biddles

        Aug 4, 2017 at 2:26 pm

        “Call him an angry hater, call him whatever makes you feel better about standing up for your belief, but realize that you calling him out is NO DIFFERENT than him calling the author of this article out.”

        Well, no, not exactly. Not at all.

        He wrote an idiotic missive based purely on his anecdotal experience, attacking an author who made very good points that are borne out by real world data.

        Those two things are very different.

        There’s so many statements that are just plain stupid in his rant, he should be roundly criticized. And that’s ignoring the ridiculous tone he took.

        For example…

        “Kids that play high school level sports are mostly “average” at best right now. Everything is watered down because everyone is supposed to feel like a big important champion.”

        Yeah, most kids are mostly “average.” That’s how AVERAGE works. Gosh, what a genius statement! Most kids 50 years ago were “average” as well.

        Now, back in the real world, youth sports are probably more elite than ever. Sure, some communities cater to losers more with participation trophies and things like that, but that whole phenomenon is way overstated. It just doesn’t happen nearly as much as conservative snowflakes like BC would have you think. It’s just that the mere thought of congratulating kids for trying triggers him, becoming the very snowflake that he no doubt rants and raves about all the time.

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Opinion & Analysis

The Wedge Guy: What really makes a wedge work? Part 2

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In my last post, I explained the basic performance dynamics of “smash factor” and “gear effect” as they apply to your wedges and your wedge play success. If you missed that post, you can read it here.

At the end of that post, I promised “part 2” of this discussion of what makes a wedge work the way it does. So, let’s dive into the other two components of any wedge – the shaft and the grip.

It’s long been said that the shaft is “the engine of the golf club.” The shaft (and grip) are your only connection to all the technologies that are packed into the head of any golf club, whether it be a driver, fairway, hybrid, iron, wedge or even putter.

And you cannot ignore those two components of your wedges if your goal is optimizing your performance.

I’ve long been an advocate of what I call a “seamless transition” from your irons into your wedges, so that the feel and performance do not disconnect when you choose a gap wedge, for example, instead of your iron-set-matching “P-club.” In today’s golf equipment marketplace, more and more golfers are making the investment of time and money to experience an iron fitting, going through trial and error and launch monitor measuring to get just the right shaft in their irons.

But then so many of those same golfers just go into a store and choose wedges off the retail display, with no similar science involved at all. And that’s why I see so many golfers with a huge disconnect between their custom-fitted irons, often with lighter and/or softer graphite or light steel shafts . . . and their off-the-rack wedges with the stock stiff steel ‘wedge flex’ shaft common to those stock offerings.

If your wedge shafts are significantly heavier and stiffer than the shafts in your irons, it is physically impossible for you to make the same swing. Period.

To quickly improve your wedge play, one of the first things you can do is have your wedges re-shafted with the same or similar shaft that is in your irons.

There’s another side of that shaft weight equation; if you don’t have the forearm and hand strength of a PGA Tour professional, you simply cannot “handle” the same weight shaft that those guys play to master the myriad of ‘touch shots’ around the greens.

Now, let’s move on to the third and other key component of your wedges – the grips. If those are not similar in shape and feel to the grips on your irons, you have another disconnect. Have your grips checked by a qualified golf club professionals to make sure you are in sync there.

The one caveat to that advice is that I am a proponent of a reduced taper in your wedge grips – putting two to four more layers of tape under the lower hand, or selecting one of the many reduced taper grips on the market. That accomplishes two goals for your scoring.

First, it helps reduce overactive hands in your full and near-full wedge swings. Quiet hands are key to good wedge shots.

And secondly, it provides a more consistent feel of the wedge in your hands as you grip down for those shorter and more delicate shots around the greens. And you should always grip down as you get into those touch shots. I call it “getting closer to your work.”

So, if you will spend as much time selecting the shafts and grips for your wedges as you do choosing the brand, model, and loft of them, your scoring range performance will get better.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Wells Fargo Championship betting preview: Tommy Fleetwood ready to finally land maiden PGA Tour title

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The PGA Tour season ramps back up this week for another “signature event,” as golf fans look forward to the year’s second major championship next week.

After two weaker-field events in the Zurich Classic and the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, most of the best players in the world will head to historic Quail Hollow for one of the best non-major tournaments of the year. 

Last season, Wyndham Clark won the event by four shots.

Quail Hollow is a par-71 measuring 7,521 yards that features Bermudagrass greens. The tree-lined, parkland style course can play quite difficult and features one of the most difficult three-hole stretches in golf known as “The Green Mile,” which makes up holes 16-18: two mammoth par 4s and a 221-yard par 3. All three holes have an average score over par, and water is in play in each of the last five holes on the course.

The field is excellent this week with 68 golfers teeing it up without a cut. All of the golfers who’ve qualified are set to tee it up, with the exception of Scottie Scheffler, who is expecting the birth of his first child. 

Past Winners at Quail Hollow

  • 2023: Wyndham Clark (-19)
  • 2022: Max Homa (-8)
  • 2021: Rory McIlroy (-10)
  • 2019: Max Homa (-15)
  • 2018: Jason Day (-12)
  • 2017: Justin Thomas (-8) (PGA Championship)
  • 2016: James Hahn (-9)
  • 2015: Rory McIlroy (-21)

Key Stats For Quail Hollow

Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes gained: Approach will be extremely important this week as second shots at Quail Hollow can be very difficult. 

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Akshay Bhatia (+1.16)
  2. Tom Hoge (+1.12)
  3. Corey Conners (+1.01)
  4. Shane Lowry (+0.93)
  5. Austin Eckroat (+0.82)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Quail Hollow is a long course on which it is important to play from the fairway. Both distance and accuracy are important, as shorter tee shots will result in approach shots from 200 or more yards. With most of the holes heavily tree lined, errant drives will create some real trouble for the players.

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Ludvig Aberg (+0.73)
  2. Rory McIlroy (+0.69)
  3. Xander Schauffele (+0.62)
  4. Viktor Hovland (+0.58)
  5. Chris Kirk (+0.52)

Proximity: 175-200

The 175-200 range is key at Quail Hollow. Players who can hit their long irons well will rise to the top of the leaderboard. 

Proximity: 175-200+ over past 24 rounds:

  1. Cameron Young (28’2″)
  2. Akshay Bhatia (29’6″)
  3. Ludvig Aberg (+30’6″)
  4. Sam Burns (+30’6″)
  5. Collin Morikawa (+30’9″)

SG: Total on Tom Fazio Designs

Players who thrive on Tom Fazio designs get a bump for me at Quail Hollow this week. 

SG: Total on Tom Fazio Designs over past 36 rounds:

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+2.10)
  2. Rory McIlroy (+1.95)
  3. Tommy Fleetwood (+1.68)
  4. Austin Eckroat (+1.60)
  5. Will Zalatoris (+1.57)

Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass)

Strokes Gained: Putting has historically graded out as the most important statistic at Quail Hollow. While it isn’t always predictable, I do want to have it in the model to bump up golfers who prefer to putt on Bermudagrass.

Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass) Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Taylor Moore (+0.82)
  2. Nick Dunlap (+.76)
  3. Wyndham Clark (+.69)
  4. Emiliano Grillo (+.64)
  5. Cam Davis (+.61)

Course History

This stat will incorporate players that have played well in the past at Quail Hollow. 

Course History over past 36 rounds (per round):

  1. Rory McIlroy (+2.50)
  2. Justin Thomas (+1.96)
  3. Jason Day (+1.92)
  4. Rickie Fowler (+1.83)
  5. Viktor Hovland (+1.78)

Wells Fargo Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), SG: Off the Tee (23%), SG: Total on Fazio designs (12%), Proximity: 175-200 (12%), SG: Putting Bermuda grass (12%), and Course History (14%).

  1. Wyndham Clark
  2. Rory McIlroy
  3. Xander Schauffele
  4. Shane Lowry
  5. Hideki Matsuyama
  6. Viktor Hovland 
  7. Cameron Young
  8. Austin Eckroat 
  9. Byeong Hun An
  10. Justin Thomas

2024 Wells Fargo Championship Picks

Tommy Fleetwood +2500 (DraftKings)

I know many out there have Tommy fatigue when it comes to betting, which is completely understandable given his lack of ability to win on the PGA Tour thus far in his career. However, history has shown us that players with Fleetwood’s talent eventually break though, and I believe for Tommy, it’s just a matter of time.

Fleetwood has been excellent on Tom Fazio designs. Over his past 36 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on Fazio tracks. He’s also been incredibly reliable off the tee this season. He’s gained strokes in the category in eight of his past nine starts, including at The Masters, the PLAYERS and the three “signature events” of the season. Tommy is a golfer built for tougher courses and can grind it out in difficult conditions.

Last year, Fleetwood was the first-round leader at this event, firing a Thursday 65. He finished the event in a tie for 5th place.

For those worried about Fleetwood’s disappointing start his last time out at Harbour Town, he’s bounced back nicely after plenty of poor outings this season. His T7 at the Valero Texas Open was after a MC and T35 in his prior two starts and his win at the Dubai Invitational came after a T47 at the Sentry.

I expect Tommy to bounce back this week and contend at Quail Hollow.

Justin Thomas +3000 (DraftKings)

It’s been a rough couple of years for Justin Thomas, but I don’t believe things are quite as bad as they seem for JT. He got caught in the bad side of the draw at Augusta for last month’s Masters and has gained strokes on approach in seven of his nine starts in 2024. 

Thomas may have found something in his most recent start at the RBC Heritage. He finished T5 at a course that he isn’t the best fit for on paper. He also finally got the putter working and ranked 15th in Strokes Gained: Putting for the week.

The two-time PGA champion captured the first of his two major championships at Quail Hollow back in 2017, and some good vibes from the course may be enough to get JT out of his slump.

Thomas hasn’t won an event in just about two years. However, I still believe that will change soon as he’s been one of the most prolific winners throughout his PGA Tour career. Since 2015, he has 15 PGA Tour wins.

Course history is pretty sticky at Quail Hollow, with players who like the course playing well there on a regular basis. In addition to JT’s PGA Championship win in 2017, he went 4-1 at the 2022 Presidents Cup and finished T14 at the event last year despite being in poor form. Thomas can return as one of the top players on the PGA Tour with a win at a “signature event” this week. 

Cameron Young +3500 (DraftKings)

For many golf bettors, it’s been frustrating backing Cam Young this season. His talent is undeniable, and one of the best and most consistent performers on the PGA Tour. He just hasn’t broken through with a victory yet. Quail Hollow has been a great place for elite players to get their first victory. Rory McIlroy, Anthony Kim, Rickie Fowler and Wyndham Clark all notched their first PGA Tour win at Quail.

Throughout Cam Young’s career, he has thrived at tougher courses with strong fields. This season, he finished T16 at Riviera and T9 at Augusta National, demonstrating his preference of a tough test. His ability to hit the ball long and straight off the tee make him an ideal fit for Quail Hollow, despite playing pretty poorly his first time out in 2023 (T59). Young should be comfortable playing in the region as he played his college golf at Wake Forest, which is about an hour’s drive from Quail Hollow.

The 26-year-old has played well at Tom Fazio designs in the past and ranks 8th in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on those courses in his last 36 rounds. Perhaps most importantly, this season, Young is the best player on the PGA Tour in terms of proximity from 175-200 in the fairway, which is where a plurality and many crucial shots will come from this week.

Young is an elite talent and Quail Hollow has been kind to players of his ilk who’ve yet to win on Tour.

Byeong Hun An +5000 (FanDuel)

Byeong Hun An missed some opportunities last weekend at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson. He finished T4 and played some outstanding golf, but a couple of missed short putts prevented him from getting to the winning score of -23. Despite not getting the win, it’s hard to view An’s performance as anything other than an overwhelming success. It was An’s fourth top-ten finish of the season.

Last week, An gained 6.5 strokes ball striking, which was 7th in the field. He also ranked 12th for Strokes Gained: Approach and 13th for Strokes Gained: Off the Tee. The South Korean has been hitting the ball so well from tee to green all season long and he now heads to a golf course that should reward his precision.

An’s driver and long irons are absolute weapons. At Quail Hollow, players will see plenty of approach shots from the 175-200 range as well as some from 200+. In his past 24 rounds, Ben ranks 3rd in the field in proximity from 175-200 and 12th in proximity from 200+. Playing in an event that will not end up being a “birdie” fest should help An, who can separate from the field with his strong tee to green play. The putter may not always cooperate but getting to -15 is much easier than getting to -23 for elite ball strikers who tend to struggle on the greens.

Winning a “signature event” feels like a tall task for An this week with so many elite players in the field. However, he’s finished T16 at the Genesis Invitational, T16 at The Masters and T8 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. The 32-year-old’s game has improved drastically this season and I believe he’s ready to get the biggest win of his career.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s LIV Golf Singapore betting preview: Course specialist ready to thrive once again

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After another strong showing in Australia, LIV Golf will head to Sentosa Golf Club in Singapore looking to build off of what was undoubtedly their best event to date.

Sentosa Golf Club sits on the southern tip of Singapore and is one of the most beautiful courses in the world. The course is more than just incredible scenically; it was also rated 55th in Golf Digest’s top-100 courses in 2022-2023 and has been consistently regarded as one of the best courses in Asia. Prior to being part of the LIV rotation, the course hosted the Singapore Open every year since 2005.

Sentosa Golf Club is a par 71 measuring 7,406 yards. The course will require precise ball striking and some length off the tee. It’s possible to go low due to the pristine conditions, but there are also plenty of hazards and difficult spots on the course that can bring double bogey into play in a hurry. The Bermudagrass greens are perfectly manicured, and the course has spent millions on the sub-air system to keep the greens rolling fast. I spoke to Asian Tour player, Travis Smyth, who described the greens as “the best [he’s] ever played.”

Davis Love III, who competed in a Singapore Open in 2019, also gushed over the condition of the golf course.

“I love the greens. They are fabulous,” the 21-time PGA Tour winner said.

Love III also spoke about other aspects of the golf course.

“The greens are great; the fairways are perfect. It is a wonderful course, and it’s tricky off the tee.”

“It’s a long golf course, and you get some long iron shots. It takes somebody hitting it great to hit every green even though they are big.”

As Love III said, the course can be difficult off the tee due to the length of the course and the trouble looming around every corner. It will take a terrific ball striking week to win at Sentosa Golf Club.

In his pre-tournament press conference last season, Phil Mickelson echoed many of the same sentiments.

“To play Sentosa effectively, you’re going to have a lot of shots from 160 to 210, a lot of full 6-, 7-, 8-iron shots, and you need to hit those really well and you need to drive the ball well.”

Golfers who excel from tee to green and can dial in their longer irons will have a massive advantage this week.

Stat Leaders at LIV Golf Adelaide:

Fairways Hit

1.) Louis Oosthuizen

2.) Anirban Lahiri

3.) Jon Rahm

4.) Brendan Steele

5.) Cameron Tringale

Greens in Regulation

1.) Brooks Koepka

2.) Brendan Steele

3.) Dean Burmester

4.) Cameron Tringale

5.) Anirban Lahiri

Birdies Made

1.) Brendan Steele

2.) Dean Burmester

3.) Thomas Pieters

4.) Patrick Reed

5.) Carlos Ortiz

LIV Golf Individual Standings:

1.) Joaquin Niemann

2.) Jon Rahm

3.) Dean Burmester

4.) Louis Oosthuizen

5.) Abraham Ancer

LIV Golf Team Standings:

1.) Crushers

2.) Legion XIII

3.) Torque

4.) Stinger GC

5.) Ripper GC

LIV Golf Singapore Picks

Sergio Garcia +3000 (DraftKings)

Sergio Garcia is no stranger to Sentosa Golf Club. The Spaniard won the Singapore Open in 2018 by five strokes and lost in a playoff at LIV Singapore last year to scorching hot Talor Gooch. Looking at the course setup, it’s no surprise that a player like Sergio has played incredible golf here. He’s long off the tee and is one of the better long iron players in the world when he’s in form. Garcia is also statistically a much better putter on Bermudagrass than he is on other putting surfaces. He’s putt extremely well on Sentosa’s incredibly pure green complexes.

This season, Garcia has two runner-up finishes, both of them being playoff losses. Both El Camaleon and Doral are courses he’s had success at in his career. The Spaniard is a player who plays well at his tracks, and Sentosa is one of them. I believe Sergio will get himself in the mix this week. Hopefully the third time is a charm in Singapore.

Paul Casey +3300 (FanDuel)

Paul Casey is in the midst of one of his best seasons in the five years or so. The results recently have been up and down, but he’s shown that when he’s on a golf course that suits his game, he’s amongst the contenders.

This season, Casey has finishes of T5 (LIV Las Vegas), T2 (LIV Hong Kong), and a 6th at the Singapore Classic on the DP World Tour. At his best, the Englishman is one of the best long iron players in the world, which makes him a strong fit for Sentosa. Despite being in poor form last season, he was able to fire a Sunday 63, which shows he can low here at the course.

It’s been three years since Casey has won a tournament (Omega Dubai Desert Classic in 2021), but he’s been one of the top players on LIV this season and I think he can get it done at some point this season.

Mito Pereira +5000 (Bet365)

Since Mito Pereira’s unfortunate demise at the 2022 PGA Championship, he’s been extremely inconsistent. However, over the past few months, the Chilean has played well on the International Series as well as his most recent LIV start. Mito finished 8th at LIV Adelaide, which was his best LIV finish this season.

Last year, Pereira finished 5th at LIV Singapore, shooting fantastic rounds of 67-66-66. It makes sense why Mito would like Sentosa, as preeminent ball strikers tend to rise to the challenge of the golf course. He’s a great long iron player who is long and straight off the tee.

Mito has some experience playing in Asia and is one of the most talented players on LIV who’s yet to get in the winner’s circle. I have questions about whether or not he can come through once in contention, but if he gets there, I’m happy to roll the dice.

Andy Ogletree +15000 (DraftKings)

Andy Ogletree is a player I expected to have a strong 2024 but struggled early in his first full season on LIV. After failing to crack the top-25 in any LIV event this year, the former U.S. Amateur champion finally figured things out, finished in a tie for 3rd at LIV Adelaide.

Ogletree should be incredible comfortable playing in Singapore. He won the International Series Qatar last year and finished T3 at the International Series Singapore. The 26-year-old was arguably the best player on the Asian Tour in 2023 and has been fantastic in the continent over the past 18 months.

If Ogletree has indeed found form, he looks to be an amazing value at triple-digit odds.

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