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What Tiger Woods Has In Common With Bill Russell (Hint: It’s Isolation)

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Shaking hands with Steve Scott standing on the green of the 38th hole of the final match in the 1996 U.S. Amateur, Tiger Woods ascended into greatness with his third-straight U.S. Amateur victory. In a feature for the September 2nd issue of Sports Illustrated that year, Jaime Diaz captured a quote from Tiger referencing his second-round 66 in the 1996 Open Championship. Looking back now, there’s a freedom one can only hope Tiger will find again. “Something really clicked that day, like I had found a whole new style of play,” Woods said. “I finally understood the meaning of playing within myself. Ever since, the game has seemed a lot easier.”

That’s quite a bold statement for someone who, beginning five years earlier, held the top national amateur title in the country from the time he was 15 until he turned pro at the age of 20. Three consecutive USGA Junior titles followed by three consecutive USGA Amateurs. He was in the conversation among Bobby Jones and Jack Nicklaus as the greatest amateur player to ever live. It seems golf only got easier for the young superstar. We all know his record between 1996 and 2013. No need to lay it out. But something happened along the way.

On Memorial Day of this year, news broke that Tiger had been arrested on suspicion of Driving Under the Influence. A mugshot appeared not a half hour after his release from police custody in Jupiter, Florida. What followed was a statement on his website claiming full responsibility for his actions.

“There was no alcohol involved,” Woods wrote. “I didn’t realize the mix of medications had affected me so strongly.”

It would be easy to speculate as to why Tiger was found on the side of the road. He did have back surgery recently (his fourth back surgery), on top of multiple other surgeries and procedures over the years; he’s practically the bionic man at this point. But speculation about his habits doesn’t provide any context into the Tiger we are seeing now. For context, we need understand who Tiger is as a figure. And for that, we need to go back a little further.

In 1957, the Boston Celtics made a deal with the St. Louis Hawks to acquire the second-round draft pick, and ultimately, the man who would change the dynamic of basketball forever.

William (Bill) Felton Russell was a 6-foot 10-inch towering figure, and in a league full of slow white guys, he dominated down low and simply outpaced everyone else on the court. For his career, Russell averaged over 15 points per game, over 22 rebounds per game, and 4.3 assists. Russell also won 11 championships with the Boston Celtics over the course of 13 seasons, two of which were as a Player/Coach (‘68 and ‘69). The numbers are astonishing and are the part of the story we still talk about today, but it’s not the most important part. Bill Russell was the first black superstar in the NBA.

In a story for Rhino Press, David Valerio writes this about Russell: “He was also 6-feet 10-inches, an athletic monster who blocked and dunked on players, actions previously unknown in the NBA. No one dunked. No one blocked. It was unheard of. Yet the arrival of Bill Russell signaled the start of a new era in league history; it signaled the arrival of black players into the NBA. Bill Russell was not the first black NBA player — such well-known names as Chuck Cooper, Harold Hunter, and Nat “Sweetwater” Clifton broke the race barrier first. But none of you know their names, because they weren’t superstars like Bill Russell was; they couldn’t lead teams to championships in addition to being named the league’s Most Valuable Player. Bill Russell was a star who helped change the face of the NBA forever, for Russell was not only the premier black NBA player, but he was also a black man who fought against racism in both its perceived and actual forms.”

Bill Russell wasn’t the first black athlete in his sport. But he was the first to ascend into superstardom. Sound familiar?

Tiger wasn’t the first black player to grace the PGA Tour; he was preceded by the likes of Calvin Peete (12 wins on the PGA Tour including the Harry Vardon and Byron Nelson Awards in 1984), Jim Thorpe (three wins on PGA Tour, 13 on the Champions Tour), Charlie Sifford (the first black player on the PGA Tour and won twice), and Lee Elder (the first black man to play in The Masters in 1975). What made Tiger different from his contemporaries is almost identical to what was different about Bill Russell. They finished paving a road others had started and seemed to do it on sheer willpower and work ethic.

Yes, for as long as we can remember, it was assumed that Tiger would be gunning for Nicklaus’ record, but it’s one thing for people to assume it’s going to happen and it actually happening. In Bill Simmons’ The Book of Basketball, he tells the story of how he perceived what made Larry Bird so great to Celtics fans. “In the big scheme of things,” Simmons writes, “Number 33 [Bird] was an extremely tall and well-coordinated guy who did his job exceptionally well. That’s it. You can’t call him a superhero because he wasn’t saving lives or making the world a better place. At the same time, he possessed heroic qualities because everyone in New England bought into his invincibility.

“He came through too many times for us. After a while, we started expecting him to come through, and when he still came through, that’s when we were hooked for good.”

What Simmons describes in his book about Larry Bird is the same thing we came to expect from Tiger essentially as soon as he slid on his first green jacket. Tiger was an invincible athlete who was also truly breaking the racial barrier in an elitist sport. Standing on the shoulders of Charlie Sifford, Calvin Peete, Jim Thorpe, and Lee Elder, Tiger climbed higher than any professional golfer ever had, much like Bill Russell. It didn’t matter the situation; Tiger always hit to shot that kept him in it, or he always sank the putt to extend a match or take the lead. What also came with that invincibility was isolation. Simmons goes on to write about Russell, “Maybe the city [Boston] would have accepted an African-American sports hero in the fifties and sixties — eventually it accepted many of them — but never someone as complex and stubborn as Russell.” Again, where Russell and Tiger are the same, people never really connected with Tiger as a persona, they were just in awe of his sheer dominance. 

While Bill Russell was winning championships like older brothers win wrestling matches, he was also absorbing shots to his character and his abilities for no reason other than the color of his skin. David Valerio goes on to write in his piece, “While Russell was on tour with an exhibition team prior to the 1961-62 season, Russell and a teammate were denied service in a restaurant when their team was scheduled to play a game in Lexington, Kentucky. Russell and his team then refused to play in the city and flew back home, generating a large amount of controversy.” What followed that incident laid the groundwork for how Russell would be perceived the rest of his career, and to many, still is. Valerio continues, “In response to this, and other issues, Russell became resentful of the media and fans’ attentions, as he believed it all to be sarcastic and hollow. This resentment held over to his reactions with the local Boston fans. As a result of this, and many other events, Russell never particularly warmed to Boston, a city notorious for its racism, even as he continued on to win an exorbitant amount of championships for its team.”

2322644634_683b134289_o (1)As late as 1997, Fuzzy Zoeller made his infamous quote on Tiger’s achievements thus far: “He’s doing quite well, pretty impressive. That little boy is driving well and he’s putting well. He’s doing everything it takes to win. So, you know what you guys do when he gets in here? You pat him on the back and say congratulations and enjoy it and tell him not to serve fried chicken next year. Got it. Or collard greens or whatever the hell they serve.”

That was a mere 20 years ago. 

As we look back at Bill Russell’s career, it makes total sense that he isolated himself from the media. Why would he give them the time of day? They weren’t out there playing his game. They weren’t sweating on the practice court alone before anyone else showed up; it was just him. And his will to beat the hell out of everyone else. That’s it. Simmons claims he was complex, and I’m sure there are aspects of him that are, but it seems he just wanted to be left alone to play his game and beat everybody else that tried to join him. Had Dan Jenkins been covering basketball in Russell’s prime, he might have felt the need to write a (fake) interview with him for Sports Illustrated, because something tells me he wouldn’t have sat down with Jenko either. For many reasons, Russell spent essentially the entire 90s living a reclusive life in the Pacific Northwest.

As we sit and ponder over the next few days, and throw around comments about whether Tiger will ever play golf again, we need to also think about what Jack Nicklaus had to say about a man whom he refers to as a friend.

“I feel bad for Tiger. Tiger’s a friend. He’s been great for the game of golf. He needs our help. I wish him well.”

It’s easy to forget that Tiger Woods is not just a brand and not just a legendary golfer. He’s a person, a father, and a man who dominated a tour that until 1961 no black man had ever been allowed to even join. Like Russell, even well into the height of his career, when he was at the top of the mountain, he had to endure comments rooted in racism, even if they may not have been ill-intentioned. Tiger just wanted to play his game better than anyone who’d ever lived. All the other stuff was simply a by-product, and eventually, the by-product got in the way, making it harder to play within himself.

In a 2010 piece from Bleacher Report titled The Psychology Behind Greatness: Tiger Woods Imbalance, Vincent Heck writes, “The Tiger Woods we knew before could do no wrong. Now, to many, he’s an immoral, arrogant cheater who can’t be trusted.” Heck also goes on to cite Thomas G. Seabourne, Ph.D., from The Journal of Sports Psychology: “Learning to cope and deal with counter-productive tendencies that an athlete may experience is important. Their ability to do so will impact on their overall performance and may interfere or facilitate the athlete in striving for an optimal performance.”

The point of Heck’s piece, at the time, was that prior to the Thanksgiving incident of 2009, Tiger had received virtually zero criticism on or off the course. Sure, a little poking here and there about his language when he duck-hooked a tee shot, but it was minimal. He was invincible inside the ropes. After his affairs came to light that all changed on a dime, and it’s been a rocky road ever since. Each injury and withdrawal drew more and more scrutiny, and the number of times his integrity has been called into question is equal only to the number of Fast and Furious movies we’ll have to endure over the next decade.

Some can say that he’s isolated himself, I may even be in this camp on occasion, but when you sit down and think about the surmounting pressure he’s received over the last decade, who can blame him? In a TIME interview with Lorne Rubenstein from 2014, you can see the shift in his mindset after having kids. Lorne asked, “How do you feel about the way the media have covered you?”

“There’s no accountability in what they say,” Tiger responded. “And what they say, it’s like it’s gospel, there’s no source behind it. Nothing like, yeah, I talked to X number of players, I talked to this player, this player, this player. It’s none of that.”

He would go on further in response to Rubenstein’s question about what’s written about him. “You don’t read what’s written about you? Was there a time when you did?” Rubenstein asked.

Tiger’s response, “Not really. And that has served me well. It has served me well. Like my Dad said when I was young, Were any of these guys there? If anybody has any kind of perspective on it, it would be the caddy. He saw the shot, he understood what the circumstances were. Other than that, there’s nobody else. So what’s their take on it? Who cares? They weren’t there. They didn’t see how difficult it was, what’s going on.”

Reading the TIME article, you get the sense Rubenstein’s question wasn’t just about what goes on inside the ropes. And even though Tiger’s response defaults to golf, you know it’s hinting at what goes on outside the ropes. 

We don’t know what it’s like to be the most famous athlete in the world for one second, much less for nearly 20 years. We don’t know what it’s like to feel the pressure of representing an entire race in a sport that has a history of blatant prejudice. Bill Russell and Tiger Woods know what that’s like. As do many others in American sports, but I don’t, and you probably don’t either.

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It’s impossible to know what is going through Tiger’s head, but thinking back to the 20-year-old Tiger who said, “Something really clicked that day, I felt like I had found a whole new style of play. I finally understood what it meant to play within myself,” here’s to hoping he can do that again. It might seem easy to an outsider, the Tiger we once knew is a larger than life figure, you’d think playing within that framework would come easy. But the Tiger we don’t know is the one he needs to play within, and that battlefield seems to be getting smaller by the day.

Photo credit: Flickr/Lorianne DiSabatoMarcia Cirillorajapal

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Adam Crawford is a writer of many topics but golf has always been at the forefront. An avid player and student of the game, Adam seeks to understand both the analytical side of the game as well as the human aspect - which he finds the most important. You can find his books at his website, chandlercrawford.com, or on Amazon.

35 Comments

35 Comments

  1. The dude

    Jun 3, 2017 at 9:46 pm

    SHANK!!!!!…….sorry Bill for putting your name in the same sentence with TW….maybe that should have been the title….wow….fail…

  2. Mat

    Jun 3, 2017 at 6:57 pm

    I agree the parallels are there, but for one difference. “Hello, World.” I love watching him as an athlete, but as someone who worked as a ballboy in the NBA, I saw early on that the things that make athletes great is exactly what makes them make bad decisions. It’s a straight line. Tiger asked for the media scrutiny because he knew, and Nike knew, that’s how dollars entered the PGA.

    Bill Russell dealt with institutional racism when Tiger had people saying “it’s about time”. I think the point of isolation is fair, but it isn’t at all what Bill Russell faced in the 1960’s. Sure, they each reserved themselves, but I don’t think it’s fair to Bill Russell. His problems were from others, where Tiger’s problems originate from the tendencies and teachings of his dad, his own behaviour and addiction, and were multiplied by the fame that multiplied his paychecks. These things are not the same, and to conflate them unfairly minimises what Russell went through.

  3. dcorun

    Jun 3, 2017 at 6:35 pm

    He has been the center of attention right or wrong since we was a child on The Mike Douglas Show. IMHO he lost his moral compass when his dad passed away. His dad taught him how to be successful but, wasn’t around to teach him how to handle post success which everyone whether athlete or not has to accept someday.

  4. Frankie

    Jun 3, 2017 at 2:45 pm

    In terms of competing, it’s more like Bill Russell and Jack Nicklaus (both won the most NBA Finals and majors, respectively), while Tiger is similar to Michael Jordan (both were the most dominant in their prime).

  5. johnnie d

    Jun 2, 2017 at 11:22 pm

    I’m getting real tired of writers speculating on what people think just so they can justify a paycheck. This is pure conjecture without any evidence that Bill and Tiger think this way. All the supporting data is second-hand. If the author had done his homework by interviewing Bill and Tiger and thus came to his conclusions, then I’d think differently, but there was no original research. I hope the GolfWRX editors are listening as this was totally BS.

    • Jasian Day

      Jun 3, 2017 at 10:07 am

      Getting real tired of writers speculating….
      Hope ya got a time machine then

  6. AlbieT

    Jun 2, 2017 at 9:41 pm

    People love Woods for his golf and then somehow thought he is this or that kind of person. When news came out that contradicted that “thought” they go crazy. Ridiculous! Tiger gave us his golf excitement and that to me was enough. It was a gift to watch him at his peak, period. He does not have to apologize to me ever.

  7. Hawkeye77

    Jun 2, 2017 at 9:21 pm

    Tiger hasn’t walked 6 inches in Bill Russell’s shoes. Their careers certainly are not comparable (Russell = personal team focus and team sport, Tiger not at all – not enough room to get into all that’s wrong with comparing their careers), their life experiences not even close to comparable and nothing about the end (if Tiger is done) is comparable. Oh, they are athletes of color who are hard to get to know, right. Russell is a man and all that implies and deep, thoughtful, reflective, highly intelligent, engaging at times, but “isolation” used superficially makes for a very superficial article and a comparison just to publish something.

  8. Bert

    Jun 2, 2017 at 7:28 pm

    +1

  9. Golfgirlrobin

    Jun 2, 2017 at 7:19 pm

    I first met Bill Russell in 1984 when he used to show up at all the basketball games of the small San Francisco Bay Area college I attended. He was friendly and outgoing, used to shoot baskets after the games, hang out with students and was just generally awesome. Due to work stuff, I continued to see him well into the late 90’s. Maybe he hated the media, and who could blame him, but the idea that he was some unapproachable, introverted hermit just isn’t true.

  10. Ben Jones

    Jun 2, 2017 at 3:01 pm

    Bottom line, he doesn’t have the swing and game anymore. It all boils down to thinking you have a great swing and game and growing confidence that you can make it happen. Too bad he doesn’t swing like the picture at the end. Tiger had a great golf swing. He fed off that perfection under Butch and even though he changed it, he had enough carry over and short game to do well. But he had to keep changing until it got really bad. If your swing is good, you will play good. Success builds confidence, we all know that. Tiger has neither a good swing or confidence. He is beat down. His body is beat down. We will never see him play like he once did.

  11. Tim

    Jun 2, 2017 at 2:31 pm

    So no one wants to tackle why he is always referred to as being a “black” athlete? His mother was Thai. His dad had black, white, and Native American heritage. Why isn’t he referred to as an Asian or Thai athlete?

  12. Mike C

    Jun 2, 2017 at 11:31 am

    Great article. Both Tiger and Russell are viewed by many as Jerks (and maybe they are). But, as you point out, it ain’t easy being them.

    • Adam Crawford

      Jun 2, 2017 at 12:20 pm

      Thanks, I agree. And again, I don’t think any of that is an excuse for actions taken. But I think it’s important to try and understand “why” as opposed to just passing judgment. Of course, it’s virtually all speculation, and correlation doesn’t equal causation, but looking at what happened and trying to gain an understanding has some value.

  13. H

    Jun 2, 2017 at 11:17 am

    Eldrick is not black. He is more Thai-Chinese than he is black. IF Eldrick has emphasized that aspect, and leaned more on his mother’s culture than his father’s side, none of this would have happened. But then he may never have been the golfer that he came to be. But that may have been a good thing, to be a more well-rounded person, than a skirt-chasing monster he came to be, a behavior he learned from his horrible father.

    • God Shamgod

      Jun 2, 2017 at 11:50 am

      Wait, are you suggesting that Tiger’s infidelity is due to his father being black? That is sad and pathetic.

      • Joe Golfer

        Jun 2, 2017 at 3:18 pm

        I’m not sure if he is suggesting that or not. If he is, then it is indeed shameful of him.
        There was a very long Sports Illustrated article a while back. I don’t recall the issue, but it had Tiger on the cover with the headline “What Happened” and the author was named Alan Shipnuck, should you wish to try to google it. Within the article, it did indicate that Tiger’s father was unfaithful to his own wife and was a “skirtchaser”, so to speak. So perhaps that person (H) who wrote that was referring only to Tiger’s father specifically and not an entire race. That said, the way he phrased things does sound bad.

  14. Jasian Day

    Jun 2, 2017 at 11:14 am

    Compare Tiger to Princess Diana….
    Her car troubles were well documented too

  15. larrybud

    Jun 2, 2017 at 10:04 am

    Sorry, but Tiger in 2017 is nowhere near the same, not even close, not in the same UNIVERSE as Russell in the 60s turmoil of race riots, and does a disservice to what Russell went through and the time that he played.

    Tiger screwed up, a few times. Why is that so hard for people to say or acknowledge? The Tiger apologists will blame it on things like race, the media, his caddy, and the Tiger haters will just pile on and not recognize the guy is human, first and foremost, and makes mistakes just like everybody else.

    Sure, it’s hard the average guy to be sympathetic with a superstar multi-millionaire, which to us appear to have everything in the world at their fingertips, but that doesn’t make them supermen who make perfect decisions all the time. In the end, we all end up 6 feet under.

    I hope Tiger can turn things around, at least personally. If he every plays golf again at a decent level, that will just be icing on the cake for those of us who lived through his 10 years of golf greatness.

  16. ooffa

    Jun 2, 2017 at 9:05 am

    This has got to be the dumbest article Golfwrx has ever posted. Complete foolishness. Tiger is a mess. that’s it! That’s all! It has nothing to do with anything else.
    Are you bored Crawford? This is really lazy work on your part. You are better and smarter than this drivel.

    • Grizz01

      Jun 2, 2017 at 2:58 pm

      I commented on why Tiger is a mess. And my comment was removed. You cannot be honest about it. No one once it out in the open. I thought GolfWRX was going to get away from the politcally correct. Apparently they’ve gotten to big already and have to please the advertising dollars and censor stuff now.

  17. Frank McChrystal

    Jun 2, 2017 at 9:04 am

    Michael Jackson.

  18. Joseph

    Jun 2, 2017 at 8:59 am

    Very little in common in my view. Russell came into the league and was quickly followed by a succession of other black superstars, including Wilt, the Big O and others within a couple of years. He played a team sport and was the ultimate team player as the Celtics record proves. I was luckily able to see him play often as a kid at the Cincinnati Gardens for $3. Russell appeared thoughtful and reserved, but Tiger was aloof and imperious. Part of that may be golf, but from what one reads, that was Tiger’s personality and it appears that he has no friends. That has little to do with his race, there are a lot of people of all races who share that trait.

    • K

      Jun 2, 2017 at 12:59 pm

      Exactly. Team sport vs. loner sport. Not even in the same league. What Eldrick has done to himself after he got caught cheating with all them women, isolating himself because of his actions is not even close to Russel’s experience. What the heck is this article about, anyway?

  19. Jack Nash

    Jun 2, 2017 at 8:06 am

    I see little comparison between Russel and Woods. Russel is a humble superstar, while Woods is just the opposite. Russel defined his position in his sport while Woods defined his at the same time as a technological boom hit the golf world.

    • birdie

      Jun 2, 2017 at 9:10 am

      tiger was always one of the last to adopt new technology. not sure what that has to do with anything.

    • Adam Crawford

      Jun 2, 2017 at 10:20 am

      The humbleness is simply one aspect of their personality. I think that just because there is one attribute that doesn’t seam to match up doesn’t mean their paths are dissimilar. When looking at the arc of their career and the impact they had on their respective sports, the arcs are strikingly similar.

  20. AceW7Iron

    Jun 2, 2017 at 7:54 am

    Why must it always boil down to skin color in America? Its never because they Guy or Gail is just a human being with faults and temptations that are as old mankind itself…No…in America it always stops at the epidermis which in reality is the most outward layer of a human being.

    I submit to you that TW’s problem is NOT with his skin covering but rather lies deeper within…much closer to his heart. The Man had it all & still has considerably more than most in the WORLD. Tiger should be in his prime and encouraging generations of fans to do well in life but it appears he is too busy popping fuzzies…a choice only he could make. Its foolish to blame his woes on others…There is only one Man living in his skin that makes the call…HIM

    • Jim

      Jun 2, 2017 at 9:31 am

      99% thought Tiger’s mixed ethnicity and skin color were as iimportant as his talent. If a white country club kid won 3 US Ams he woulda got great 7 figure offers, but certainly not the 8 figure deal and recruitment to be the global face of a brand – essentially replacing Michael Jordan…

      A few shitbirds aside, Tiger had ZERO racism to deal with compared to Russell

    • Adam Crawford

      Jun 2, 2017 at 10:23 am

      I apologize if you thought the entire premise was trying to prove that skin color was an excuse for his actions recently, it wasn’t. But I think there is a wide misunderstanding, or lack of attention, to the amount of pressure felt by someone like Tiger Woods. I also think, that some of his actions may have been curtailed had he been surrounded by dear friends like so many of us have, the friends that keep us in check. With the level of fame achieved and the amount of pressure on an athlete of his caliber (Russell the same), it’s understandable for someone to retreat within themselves, and when that happens, there is no outside “voice of reason” telling us when something may be a bad decision. I know I’ve had many a friend talk me out of what I thought was a good decision at the time, but in retrospect would have been a disaster. If someone is isolated, then they may not have that type of friend to curtail poor choices.

      • ooffa

        Jun 2, 2017 at 10:45 am

        Ya, Sure, Whateva,

      • K

        Jun 2, 2017 at 1:02 pm

        “I know I’ve had many a friend talk me out of what I thought was a good decision at the time”
        Now that’s hilarious, in regards to how you got to publish this worthless article.

      • Adam A

        Jun 2, 2017 at 1:18 pm

        What does skin color have to do with both men living in isolation? As true as it is that both men were trail blazers in their particular sport when it came to dominance in a game filled with mostly white men. Their isolation seems more about personality than race.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open betting preview

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As the Florida swing comes to an end, the PGA Tour makes its way to Houston to play the Texas Children’s Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course.

This will be the fourth year that Memorial Park Golf Course will serve as the tournament host. The event did not take place in 2023, but the course hosted the event in 2020, 2021 and 2022.

Memorial Park is a par-70 layout measuring 7,432 yards and features Bermudagrass greens. Historically, the main defense for the course has been thick rough along the fairways and tightly mown runoff areas around the greens. Memorial Park has a unique setup that features three Par 5’s and five Par 3’s.

The field will consist of 132 players, with the top 65 and ties making the cut. There are some big names making the trip to Houston, including Scottie Scheffler, Wyndham Clark, Tony Finau, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala.

Past Winners at Memorial Park

  • 2022: Tony Finau (-16)
  • 2021: Jason Kokrak (-10)
  • 2020: Carlos Ortiz (-13)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Memorial Park

Let’s take a look at several metrics for Memorial Park to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds:

Strokes Gained: Approach

Memorial Park is a pretty tough golf course. Golfers are penalized for missing greens and face some difficult up and downs to save par. Approach will be key.

Total Strokes Gained: Approach per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.30)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.26)
  3. Keith Mitchell (+0.97) 
  4. Tony Finau (+0.92)
  5. Jake Knapp (+0.84)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Memorial Park is a long golf course with rough that can be penal. Therefore, a combination of distance and accuracy is the best metric.

Total Strokes Gained: Off the Tee per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+0.94)
  2. Kevin Dougherty (+0.93)
  3. Cameron Champ (+0.86)
  4. Rafael Campos (+0.84)
  5. Si Woo Kim (+0.70)

Strokes Gained Putting: Bermudagrass + Fast

The Bermudagrass greens played fairly fast the past few years in Houston. Jason Kokrak gained 8.7 strokes putting on his way to victory in 2021 and Tony Finau gained in 7.8 in 2022.

Total Strokes Gained Putting (Bermudagrass) per round past 24 rounds (min. 8 rounds):

  1. Adam Svensson (+1.27)
  2. Harry Hall (+1.01)
  3. Martin Trainer (+0.94)
  4. Taylor Montgomery (+0.88)
  5. S.H. Kim (+0.86)

Strokes Gained: Around the Green

With firm and undulating putting surfaces, holding the green on approach shots may prove to be a challenge. Memorial Park has many tightly mowed runoff areas, so golfers will have challenging up-and-down’s around the greens. Carlos Ortiz gained 5.7 strokes around the green on the way to victory in 2020.

Total Strokes Gained: Around the Green per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Mackenzie Hughes (+0.76)
  2. S.H. Kim (+0.68)
  3. Scottie Scheffler (+0.64)
  4. Jorge Campillo (+0.62)
  5. Jason Day (+0.60)

Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult

Memorial Park is a long and difficult golf course. This statistic will incorporate players who’ve had success on these types of tracks in the past. 

Total Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.45)
  2. Ben Griffin (+1.75)
  3. Will Zalatoris (+1.73)
  4. Ben Taylor (+1.53)
  5. Tony Finau (+1.42)

Course History

Here are the players who have performed the most consistently at Memorial Park. 

Strokes Gained Total at Memorial Park past 12 rounds:

  1. Tyson Alexander (+3.65)
  2. Ben Taylor (+3.40)
  3. Tony Finau (+2.37)
  4. Joel Dahmen (+2.25)
  5. Patton Kizzire (+2.16)

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (24%) SG: OTT (24%); SG: Putting Bermudagrass/Fast (13%); SG: Long and Difficult (13%); SG: ARG (13%) and Course History (13%)

  1. Scottie Scheffler
  2. Wyndham Clark
  3. Tony Finau
  4. Joel Dahmen
  5. Stephan Jaeger 
  6. Aaron Rai
  7. Sahith Theegala
  8. Keith Mitchell 
  9. Jhonnatan Vegas
  10. Jason Day
  11. Kurt Kitayama
  12. Alex Noren
  13. Will Zalatoris
  14. Si Woo Kim
  15. Adam Long

2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open Picks

Will Zalatoris +2000 (Caesars)

Scottie Scheffler will undoubtedly be difficult to beat this week, so I’m starting my card with someone who I believe has the talent to beat him if he doesn’t have his best stuff.

Will Zalatoris missed the cut at the PLAYERS, but still managed to gain strokes on approach while doing so. In an unpredictable event with extreme variance, I don’t believe it would be wise to discount Zalatoris based on that performance. Prior to The PLAYERS, the 27-year-old finished T13, T2 and T4 in his previous three starts.

Zalatoris plays his best golf on long and difficult golf courses. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the category, but the eye test also tells a similar story. He’s contended at major championships and elevated events in the best of fields with tough scoring conditions.  The Texas resident should be a perfect fit at Memorial Park Golf Club.

Alex Noren +4500 (FanDuel)

Alex Noren has been quietly playing some of his best golf of the last half decade this season. The 41-year-old is coming off back-to-back top-20 finishes in Florida including a T9 at The PLAYERS in his most recent start.

In his past 24 rounds, Noren ranks 21st in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 30th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, 25th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses and 21st in Strokes Gained: Putting on fast Bermudagrass greens.

In addition to his strong recent play, the Swede also has played well at Memorial Park. In 2022, Noren finished T4 at the event, gaining 2.2 strokes off the tee and 7.0 strokes on approach for the week. In his two starts at the course, he’s gained an average of .6 strokes per round on the field, indicating he is comfortable on these greens.

Noren has been due for a win for what feels like an eternity, but Memorial Park may be the course that suits him well enough for him to finally get his elusive first PGA Tour victory.

Mackenzie Hughes +8000 (FanDuel)

Mackenzie Hughes found himself deep into contention at last week’s Valspar Championship before faltering late and finishing in a tie for 3rd place. While he would have loved to win the event, it’s hard to see the performance as anything other than an overwhelming positive sign for the Canadian.

Hughes has played great golf at Memorial Park in the past. He finished T7 in 2020, T29 in 2021 and T16 in 2022. The course fit seems to be quite strong for Hughes. He’s added distance off the tee in the past year or and ranks 8th in the field for apex height, which will be a key factor when hitting into Memorial Park’s elevated greens with steep run-off areas.

In his past 24 rounds, Hughes is the best player in the field in Strokes Gained: Around the Greens. The ability to scramble at this course will be extremely important. I believe Hughes can build off of his strong finish last week and contend once again to cement himself as a President’s Cup consideration.

Akshay Bhatia +8000 (FanDuel)

Akshay Bhatia played well last week at the Valspar and seemed to be in total control of his golf ball. He finished in a tie for 17th and shot an impressive -3 on a difficult Sunday. After struggling Thursday, Akshay shot 68-70-68 in his next three rounds.

Thus far, Bhatia has played better at easier courses, but his success at Copperhead may be due to his game maturing. The 22-year-old has enormous potential and the raw talent to be one of the best players in the world when he figures it all out.

Bhatia is a high upside play with superstar qualities and may just take the leap forward to the next stage of his career in the coming months.

Cameron Champ +12000 (FanDuel)

Cameron Champ is a player I often target in the outright betting market due to his “boom-or-bust” nature. It’s hard to think of a player in recent history with three PGA Tour wins who’s been as inconsistent as Champ has over the course of his career.

Despite the erratic play, Cam Champ simply knows how to win. He’s won in 2018, 2019 and 2021, so I feel he’s due for a win at some point this season. The former Texas A&M product should be comfortable in Texas and last week he showed us that his game is in a pretty decent spot.

Over his past 24 rounds, Champ ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 30th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses. Given his ability to spike at any given time, Memorial Park is a good golf course to target Champ on at triple digit odds.

Robert MacIntyre +12000 (FanDuel)

The challenge this week is finding players who can possibly beat Scottie Scheffler while also not dumping an enormous amount of money into an event that has a player at the top that looks extremely dangerous. Enter McIntyre, who’s another boom-or-bust type player who has the ceiling to compete with anyone when his game is clicking on all cylinders.

In his past 24 rounds, MacIntyre ranks 16th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 17th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and 10th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses.

MacIntyre’s PGA Tour season has gotten off to a slow start, but he finished T6 in Mexico, which is a course where players will hit driver on the majority of their tee shots, which is what we will see at Memorial Park. Texas can also get quite windy, which should suit MacIntyre. Last July, the Scot went toe to toe with Rory McIlroy at the Scottish Open before a narrow defeat. It would take a similar heroic effort to compete with Scheffler this year in Houston.

Ryan Moore +15000 (FanDuel)

Ryan Moore’s iron play has been absolutely unconscious over his past few starts. At The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field, he gained 6.1 strokes on approach and last week at Copperhead, he gained 9.0 strokes on approach.

It’s been a rough handful of years on Tour for the 41-year-old, but he is still a five-time winner on the PGA Tour who’s young enough for a career resurgence. Moore has chronic deterioration in a costovertebral joint that connects the rib to the spine, but has been getting more consistent of late, which is hopefully a sign that he is getting healthy.

Veterans have been contending in 2024 and I believe taking a flier on a proven Tour play who’s shown signs of life is a wise move at Memorial Park.

 

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Why the race to get better at golf might be doing more harm than good

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B.F. Skinner was one of the most important psychologists of the 20th century, developing the foundation of the development of reinforcement, and in doing so, creating the concept of behaviorism. In simple terms, this means that we are conditioned by our habits. In practical terms, it explains the divide between the few and far between elite instructors and college coaches.

To understand the application, let’s quickly review one of B.F. Skinner’s most important experiments; superstitions in the formation of behavior by pigeons. In this experiment, food was dispensed to pigeons at random intervals. Soon, according to Skinner, the pigeons began to associate whatever action they were doing at the time of the food being dispensed. According to Skinner, this conditioned that response and soon, they simply haphazardly repeated the action, failing to distinguish between cause and correlation (and in the meantime, looking really funny!).

Now, this is simply the best way to describe the actions of most every women’s college golf coach and too many instructors in America. They see something work, get positive feedback and then become conditioned to give the feedback, more and more, regardless of if it works (this is also why tips from your buddies never work!).

Go to a college event, particularly a women’s one, and you will see coaches running all over the place. Like the pigeons in the experiment, they have been conditioned into a codependent relationship with their players in which they believe their words and actions, can transform a round of golf. It is simply hilarious while being equally perturbing

In junior golf, it’s everywhere. Junior golf academies make a living selling parents that a hysterical coach and over-coaching are essential ingredients in your child’s success.

Let’s be clear, no one of any intellect has any real interest in golf — because it’s not that interesting. The people left, including most coaches and instructors, carve out a small fiefdom, usually on the corner of the range, where they use the illusion of competency to pray on people. In simple terms, they baffle people with the bullshit of pseudo-science that they can make you better, after just one more lesson.

The reality is that life is an impromptu game. The world of golf, business, and school have a message that the goal is being right. This, of course, is bad advice, being right in your own mind is easy, trying to push your ideas on others is hard. As a result, it is not surprising that the divorce rate among golf professionals and their instructors is 100 percent. The transfer rate among college players continues to soar, and too many courses have a guy peddling nefarious science to good people. In fact, we do at my course!

The question is, what impact does all this have on college-age and younger kids? At this point, we honestly don’t know. However, I am going to go out on a limb and say it isn’t good.

Soren Kierkegaard once quipped “I saw it for what it is, and I laughed.” The actions of most coaches and instructors in America are laughable. The problem is that I am not laughing because they are doing damage to kids, as well as driving good people away from this game.

The fact is that golfers don’t need more tips, secrets, or lessons. They need to be presented with a better understanding of the key elements of golf. With this understanding, they can then start to frame which information makes sense and what doesn’t. This will emancipate them and allow them to take charge of their own development.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Valspar Championship betting preview: Elite ballstrikers to thrive at Copperhead

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The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2024 Valspar Championship.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermudagrass greens overseeded with POA. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 16, 17 and 18 — also known as the “Snake Pit” — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.

The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. The field this week is solid and is a major improvement over last year’s field that felt the impact of players skipping due to a handful of “signature events” in a short span of time. 

Past Winners at Valspar Championship

  • 2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
  • 2022: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
  • 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
  • 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
  • 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
  • 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Copperhead

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can’t be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)

  1. Tony Finau (+.90)
  2. Nick Taylor (+.81)
  3. Justin Thomas (+.77)
  4. Greyson Sigg (+.69)
  5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+.67)

2. Good Drive %

The long hitters can be a bit limited here due to the tree-lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important, but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.

Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+91.3%) 
  2. Zach Johnson (+91.1%)
  3. Sam Ryder (+90.5%)
  4. Ryan Moore (+90.4%)
  5. Aaron Rai (+89.7%)

3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1.32)
  2. Keith Mitchell (+1.29)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.24)
  4. Cameron Young (+1.17) 
  5. Doug Ghim (+.95)

4. Bogey Avoidance

With the conditions likely to be difficult, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, oftentimes the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.

Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.

Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+9.0)
  2. Xander Schauffele (+9.3)
  3. Austin Cook (+9.7) 
  4. Chesson Hadley (+10.0)
  5. Greyson Sigg (+10.2)

5. Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions

Conditions will be tough this week at Copperhead. I am looking for golfers who can rise to the occasion if the course plays as difficult as it has in the past.

Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1,71) 
  2. Min Woo Lee (+1.39)
  3. Cameron Young (+1.27)
  4. Jordan Spieth (+1.08)
  5. Justin Suh (+.94)

6. Course History

That statistic will tell us which players have played well at Copperhead in the past.

Course History Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+3.75) 
  2. Sam Burns (+2.49)
  3. Davis Riley (+2.33)
  4. Matt NeSmith (+2.22)
  5. Jordan Spieth (+2.04)

The Valspar Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Good Drive % (15%), SG: BS (20%), Bogeys Avoided (13%), Course History (13%) Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions (12%).

  1. Xander Schauffele
  2. Doug Ghim
  3. Victor Perez
  4. Greyson Sigg
  5. Ryan Moore
  6. Tony Finau
  7. Justin Thomas
  8. Sam Ryder
  9. Sam Burns
  10. Lucas Glover

2024 Valspar Championship Picks

Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)

Justin Thomas will be disappointed with his finish at last week’s PLAYERS Championship, as the past champion missed the cut despite being in some decent form heading into the event. Despite the missed cut, JT hit the ball really well. In his two rounds, the two-time major champion led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach per round.

Thomas has been up and down this season. He’s missed the cut in two “signature events” but also has finishes of T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T6 at the Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am and T3 at the American Express. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in the field.

Thomas loves Copperhead. In his last three tries at the course, he’s finished T13, T3 and T10. Thomas would have loved to get a win at a big event early in the season, but avoidable mistakes and a balky putter have cost him dearly. I believe a trip to a course he loves in a field he should be able to capitalize on is the right recipe for JT to right the ship.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (FanDuel)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is playing spectacular golf in the 2024 season. He finished 2nd at the American Express, T20 at Pebble Beach and T24 at the Genesis Invitational before finishing T13 at last week’s PLAYERS Championship.

In his past 24 rounds, the South African ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 26th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. Bezuidenhout managed to work his way around TPC Sawgrass last week with minimal damage. He only made five bogeys in the entire week, which is a great sign heading into a difficult Copperhead this week.

Bezuidenhout is winless in his PGA Tour career, but certainly has the talent to win on Tour. His recent iron play tells me that this week could be a breakthrough for the 35-year-old who has eyes on the President’s Cup.

Doug Ghim +8000 (FanDuel)

Doug Ghim has finished in the top-16 of his past five starts. Most recently, Ghim finished T16 at The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field.

In his past 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 5th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. In terms of his fit for Copperhead, the 27-year-old ranks 12th in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions, making him a great fit for the course.

Ghim has yet to win on Tour, but at one point he was the top ranked Amateur golfer in the world and played in the 2017 Arnold Palmer Cup and 2017 Walker Cup. He then won the Ben Hogan award for the best male college golfer in 2018. He certainly has the talent, and there are signals aplenty that his talent in ready to take him to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour.

Sepp Straka +8000 (BetRivers)

Sepp Straka is a player who’s shown he has the type of game that can translate to a difficult Florida golf course. The former Presidents Cup participant won the 2022 Honda Classic in tough conditions and should thrive with a similar test at Copperhead.

It’s been a slow 2024 for Straka, but his performance last week at the PLAYERS Championship surely provides some optimism. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach as well as 1.88 strokes off the tee. The tee-to-green game Straka showed on a course with plenty of danger demonstrates that he can stay in control of his golf ball this week.

It’s possible that the strong performance last week was an outlier, but I’m willing to bet on a proven winner in a weaker field at a great number.

Victor Perez +12000 (FanDuel)

Victor Perez is no stranger to success in professional golf. The Frenchman has three DP World Tour wins including a Rolex Series event. He won the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, as well as the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which are some big events.

Perez earned his PGA Tour card this season and enters the week playing some fantastic golf. He finished in a tie for 16th in Florida at the Cognizant Classic and then tied for third in his most recent start at the Puerto Rico Open.

In his past 24 rounds in the field, Perez ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 1oth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Good Drive % and 15th in Bogey Avoidance.

Perez comes in as a perfect fit for Copperhead and offers serious value at triple-digit odds.

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