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DeFrancesco: Why Tiger Can Still Come Back

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Just about everyone who is interested in golf wants to know if Tiger can come back. I happen to think he can, and I have a unique perspective as to what he is going through.

I had my first back surgery (a single-disc laminectomy, much like Tiger’s first three back surgeries) in 1983 while I was playing the mini tours in Florida. I had been a First-Team All-American at LSU in 1979 (good team that year: Corey Pavin, Fred Couples, Bob Tway, John Cook, Bobby Clampett, Gary Hallberg, Scott Watkins and myself. Mark O’Meara, Payne Stewart, Joey Sindelar and Mark Wiebe were on the 2nd team), and I had turned professional a year later. I made it to the Q-School finals in 1985, but the amount of practice it took to get there blew up my back again and I had to have a two-level fusion at S1-L5 and L4-L5. I gave up trying to make the Tour and got a job teaching, and it took me a year before I could play 18 holes.

Unfortunately for me, my trials were not yet over. The fusion bone grew in too well, so I had to have another surgery in 1988 to make more room around the nerve roots that the fusion had stabilized. I took a couple of years off away from the game, but I got back into teaching in 1991. I got to be a busy teacher, but I was determined to continue to play competitively at the club pro level. I made a pretty good career out of it, earning player of the year honors in my section four times, qualifying for five PGA Championships (by finishing in the top-20 at the National) and winning the National Club Pro in 2001 at age 43. I had to be constantly mindful of how much I practiced, and there were many occasions when I had to withdraw from events. Over the years, I tried to make adjustments to my swing that would allow me to play and get the most out of my body I could.

As a young player, my swing resembled the greats of the 70s (Nicklaus, Watson, Miller, Weiskopf) with an exaggerated “reverse-C” finish. I discarded this type of action for a more Hogan-esque rotational swing that was less stressful on my lower spine. This held up nicely for the most part until about 2009, after which the stiffness that had built up and over time made it difficult to strike the ball well enough to compete at my accustomed level. In December of 2014, I went in for my fourth and last surgery. My surgeon opened space around the nerves exiting from the sides of the two discs above the fusion, L3-L4 and L2-L3. The main problem with a fusion is that it eliminates all rotation in that area of the spine, and biomechanically the areas above and to the sides of the fusion are stressed in an abnormal way. It took me eight months to get back to tournament golf after that, and I am now able to practice more than I have in many years.

As you know, Tiger Woods just underwent his fourth back surgery in the past two years (he has now caught up to me in the race no one wants to win), and most of the pundits are thinking that he is done and will never compete on a high level again — certainly not anywhere near the level he demonstrated from the early nineties to 2013. As I mentioned, I happen to disagree with that assessment, and I will tell you why. The thing that most people who have not had back problems don’t understand is the difference between pain and limitation. A player of Tiger’s caliber can learn to play with limitations. If his body won’t do as much of what it used to do, he can still adapt his swing to what his body will allow and play great golf. If the basic movements required to make a good swing cause pain, however, the body simply will not allow itself to be injured and thus it will stubbornly refuse to function in the manner the player wants it to.

Tiger has been trying to alleviate his pain with the less invasive surgeries he has undergone up to this most recent one. It hasn’t worked out because even the minimum amount of stress he has put on it trying to play has eventually brought about pain, and with pain the muscles spasm to protect the area from further damage. That’s the end of the attempt to play. Now that he has undergone a fusion to stabilize the spine and remove the faulty disc, he has a chance to eliminate the nerve pain caused by the narrowing of the nerve root openings. This is a big deal. My guess is that his surgeons have recommended a fusion procedure for some time, but the word “fusion” itself is kind of scary. The first orthopedic I ever saw for my back told me I would need a fusion. I thought he was crazy and found another doctor. Tiger probably felt like he could beat the problem with smaller measures, but after his last failed attempt at coming back he finally saw the writing on the wall and opted for the more drastic fix.

The key is this: if Tiger can play pain-free golf, he can figure out how to play within his limitations and can compete at the highest level. Ben Hogan is a great example of just such a scenario. Hogan was playing the best golf of his life in 1948 and early in 1949. Then he was hit head-on by a bus while driving back to Texas from a tournament. He suffered multiple serious injuries and almost died of blood clots a few weeks after the accident. He underwent a radical procedure to tie off one of the main arteries to his lower extremities, and as a result he had to soak in a hot tub for two hours and wrap his legs in ace bandages before every single round. In addition to the blood supply problems, Hogan also suffered a fractured left collarbone, a double ring fracture of the pelvis, a broken left ankle, a broken rib, and several deep cuts and contusions around his left eye. All of this served to shorten Hogan’s career (he essentially retired in 1955, six years after the accident), and he never played in more than six events in a single year after 1949. But due to his determination and technical knowledge of the golf swing, he could play through whatever pain he felt and was able to modify his swing. He was not as powerful, but he was perhaps even more precise.

Hogan won six majors between 1950 and 1953, and he came close in others. I see no reason why Tiger, if he can rid himself of the stinging nerve pain and muscle spasms that follow, can’t pull a Hogan and make a great comeback. I believe he needs to discard the notion of “explosiveness.” I am not talking about swinging easy, rather, I would like to see him compress less into the ground in the backswing and bring his hand path out toward the ball more in transition to give himself more space for his arms and hands and to encourage rotation in his lower body. He doesn’t have to hit it as far as Dustin Johnson to win majors; he can hit it as far as Zach Johnson and win.

Tiger may not need the money, but I certainly think he still has the drive to continue to compete and win PGA Tour events. I don’t believe he will give up, and this next attempt to make a comeback will again be something to watch.

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Wayne has been playing tournament golf for more than 40 years and teaching golf for over 27 years. He is the Director of Instruction at Lakewood CC in Rockville, Maryland and is founder of the Wayne Defrancesco Golf Learning Center (WDGLC). Wayne has spent countless hours analyzing some of the greatest golf legends both past and present in order to teach his Pivot Compression Golf Swing technique. Visit www.waynedefrancesco.com and you will spend hours watching FREE videos and reading articles created with the sole purpose to help people become the best golfers they can be. Become a better ball striker with Wayne's Pivot Compression Golf Swing DVD: www.compressiongolf.com

36 Comments

36 Comments

  1. Pete

    May 5, 2017 at 4:52 am

    I haven’t been a Tiger fan ever since the infamous “loose impediment” incident in 1999 (not in the spirit of golf IMHO). That said, I do hope he can comeback and compete at the highest level again because it will be great for the sport I love.

  2. rymail00

    May 4, 2017 at 8:09 pm

    Great article Wayne, really enjoyed and hope read more from you. Maybe even lesson articles too if possible.

  3. Steve Wozeniak

    May 4, 2017 at 3:34 pm

    He is done unless he finds a coach that knows what he is talking about. Foley and Como are twins they teach the same garbage……duh…..let’s swing left, even though the target is not over there and it will destroy my back….yep let’s just swing left baby!!!!!! Time for a course on simple physics….

    Steve Wozeniak PGA

  4. farmer

    May 4, 2017 at 2:10 pm

    WayneD played at a high level-for a club pro. Not close to tour level. Tiger is 41, by WD’s words, it’s going to be 8 months before he can start to work again, so, 42. He’s going to have to learn a new swing, which is going to take a year to get grooved, so he’s now around 43, he’s forced to play a very limited schedule, limited range time … there’s just too many things. Even without the injuries, Tiger last won a major in 2008, and he is at the age where golf careers begin to tail off. I would like Tiger to be pain free, play an occasional tournament with no great expectations and be able to live a normal life, whatever passes as normal for a rich celebrity. As a force on tour, nope, never going to happen.

  5. Mitch Young

    May 4, 2017 at 11:44 am

    3 years ago tiger woods was still the best iron player in the world when he hit the fw, even though he had the worst year of his career. just put that into perspective, his absolute worse and put an iron in his hands and he beats the best of the best. tiger is a very special talent, one we will never ever see again, all the things that we think that are extraordinary is simply trivial to him. when you are so ahead of the curve, you will always have a boxer’s chance at winning in golf or better yet a major championship. the masters is a crap shoot with a limited field every year. the british open is weather the most weather dependant major. i doubt tiger would ever win a US open, he just doesn’t drive the ball well enough to be a front runner. the pga i say he will have a harder time winning. so for a 42 year old with multiple back surgeries, he still has a 2.5/4 of winning a major.

  6. James Stephens

    May 4, 2017 at 10:03 am

    Tigers never gonna swing hands out coming down. He can’t do it. He’s done. Wayne D is a master bs artist

  7. Mr Muira

    May 4, 2017 at 8:14 am

    Tiger is done, fried, cooked, finito. It was a pleasure watching him.

  8. NolanMBA

    May 4, 2017 at 7:31 am

    My “good back” friends just don’t know what it’s like… When you are in an icy parking lot and consider getting down and rolling/crawling to get where you need to go just to prevent slipping and throwing your back out– then we can talk.

  9. larrybud

    May 3, 2017 at 10:39 pm

    Because a 3 is sooo close to top pga tour players… huh.

    • lolerballz

      May 9, 2017 at 4:59 am

      haha! the classic USGA +3 hcp and yet if you play with him, he never goes lower than 80 :DDD

  10. Jude

    May 3, 2017 at 10:07 pm

    Your writing is a breath of fresh air. Very encouraging I pray he plays again competitively.

  11. Fat Perez

    May 3, 2017 at 4:38 pm

    Come back to WHAT?!

  12. MATTHEW SIPE

    May 3, 2017 at 3:48 pm

    Everyone overlooks the amount of practice (daily) he would need to get back into tournament shape. That’s not gonna happen, he can’t continuously practice the amount needed to perform on the highest level due to these injuries.

  13. H

    May 3, 2017 at 11:41 am

    You forget that the women get in the way. How he destroyed so many of them. Edlrick’s ego too. And the kind of money we’re talking about that Eldrick has, compared to what Hogan was making, is astronomical and can’t even be compared, the money is a massive factor that will take away the hunger to go after it. Plus it’s mostly the public and media scrutiny he faces every time he steps out to the course that he can’t handle. He never has been smart at making speeches nor speaking in public. His management team and agents surround him in a cocoon now so he doesn’t put his foot in the wrong thing, you can see he’d rather just be at home with the kids and be left alone. His agents and publicists are geniuses at keeping Eldrick’s noise in the media, keeping the world up to date, even trying to upend other people’s successes by publishing updates at inappropriate times. That’s the world he lives in. If it was pure golf for winning tournaments only and going for records, I’m sure he’d be out there gunning for it, but all this other stuff have stopped him. Has anybody asked how often he speaks to Elin or allow her to see each other’s kids or themselves, for that matter?

    • Dorcas

      May 3, 2017 at 4:18 pm

      “He never has been smart…”

      The irony is real.

  14. Bob Jones

    May 3, 2017 at 11:29 am

    Three spine surgeries here. I’ve had to learn to accept my limitations. I’m not sure Tiger’s out-sized ego can accept his. But, then, is he willing to go through missed cuts and mediocre finishes in his attempt to come back? Be just another Tour pro on his way to…what? That, not his back, will be the sticking point.

  15. Golferguy

    May 3, 2017 at 11:14 am

    Tiger’s been beating up on his body with golf since he 3 or 4 years old. He should just take what’s left of his health and move on to coaching.

  16. Chopper

    May 3, 2017 at 11:09 am

    So here is a guy that has played golf at the top 0.01% level and has happened to have very similar injuries and surgeries and all you 15 handicappers immediately dismiss his opinions because they do not line up with your predetermined outlook on Tiger. Interesting.

    • BD57

      May 3, 2017 at 7:53 pm

      Nelson, Snead, Palmer, Player, Weiskopf & Nicklaus, none of which I’m aware.

      Hogan … um, there was this head on collision with a bus …….

  17. hburt

    May 3, 2017 at 10:43 am

    Very well written article. You obviously know more than most about back pain and the golf swing. Like you said, with this major fix Tiger will have a chance to play pain free again. But still remains to be seen. Even if the physical part works out, he will have to muster the mental strength to come back and win again.

    Definitely don’t question his mental strength when Earl was around – it was unparalleled. But since 2006, I do question it. I’m not sure he has it in him to humble himself and make swing changes to accommodate his physical limitations. Don’t think it’s in his DNA. I think he gets frustrated and just tries to power through.

    I don’t question that he wants to come back and win. But I don’t think he knows how to struggle through tough times. His whole life he has always been the best. Not saying he didn’t work hard, but I think everything came pretty easily to him. He’s not used to seeing other guys blast it past him. He’s not used to having the chipping yips. That sort of thing never used to happen to him. I think it’s taken him down a few pegs, in our minds and in his own. That is what I think he won’t be able to overcome.

    We’ll see. I actually hope you’re right and I’m wrong.

    • Tcann32

      May 3, 2017 at 4:04 pm

      I think you’re spot on with the statement of it not being in Tiger’s DNA to change the way he plays.. not enough to follow through with it anyways. He has started to change some aspects, but I just don’t see him slowing things down enough to make the necessary changes. This also begs the question: Without Tiger’s swing, the one that won countless tournaments (80-ish?) and 14 majors; is it still Tiger, and will he be good enough to compete as he once did with a different swing and approach to the game? He’s obviously going to be able to hold on to many, many very strong aspects of his game, but can he re-vamp other parts of his game well enough to compete with some of the things he will have to give up? Like you, I hope I, and you, are wrong. It’d be great to see him come back and win. Even just win a regular tournament. 2013 was really exciting to see the big cat come back and win again, even if it didn’t include any majors.

      With what he has shown so far though, he’s going to have to re work his swing, his approach to the game, and his mental game as well, and that’s the part I think will hold him back. He’s a golf nut and couldn’t stay away entirely the last couple years, and couldn’t make the changes needed to stay healthy, and I’ll be surprised if he can do it again. Not to mention, after hitting what I must assume is a million golf balls with the same swing over many years, and now having that swing be limited, the road to recovery will include more than feeling good again, and will entail re-learning everything. I’m sure he can learn faster than anyone, but his muscle memory won’t do him any good because he’s going to have to change so much. His mental and muscle memory might even hurt him because those are the things that can’t be erased and much of it won’t fit into what he’s going to presumably attempt to do now. .

  18. TvGuyJake

    May 3, 2017 at 10:25 am

    TW couldn’t even make it back as a caddie? I love the reasoning in these articles…ooh “let em get the reader’s attention” with some specious reasoning. Take off the rose-colored glasses,,,you’ve seen the last of TW; and that includes the Senior Tour. #MoveOn

  19. Joe

    May 3, 2017 at 10:10 am

    the tiger is done. sorry. move on.

  20. JD

    May 3, 2017 at 9:42 am

    Yeah sure…. and Grizzly Adams had a beard.

  21. ooffa

    May 3, 2017 at 9:16 am

    Nah he’s washed up. Forever. Not coming back. Have to say he had a great run though.

    • Rex

      May 3, 2017 at 10:26 am

      Best run ever. Better than jacks. If anyone wants to argue that first think about wgc events

      • ooffa

        May 4, 2017 at 8:51 am

        That’s the issue. Tiger was a run. Jack was a marathon. The runner has collapsed. Jack was better.

  22. Greg V

    May 3, 2017 at 9:10 am

    Hogan had only won 3 majors before his accident (4 if you count the Hale America Open during WWII). As well, he started his equipment company in 1953, so he had plenty of reasons work his tail off to win majors.

    Tiger has already won 14 majors. Where’s the incentive?

    • ROY

      May 3, 2017 at 9:57 am

      He’s still short of Jack and Sam – thats his incentive…..

  23. Tcann32

    May 3, 2017 at 8:58 am

    I have similar injuries to the writer, and to Tiger. It’s awful, nasty, and no fun at all. I have yet to undergo surgery as I’ve already had eight or nine operations in my shorter life span, and am not interested in going in for another. That being said, some days it seems like it’d be worth it.

    Now, if the back is anything like other injuries after an operation, then the writer nailed it on the head in saying that Tiger will need to change some things about his swing and the way he plays. It’s possible to get your body to perform well enough to achieve the same end results as before, but you can’t do it in the ways in which you became injured in the first place, and Tiger doesn’t seem to want to change that so much. I also believe that with the right changes, he could come back in much better form than he has. The only question I really have, is without that explosive swing and style of play, will it really be Tiger, and will he be good enough to beat those that might not be as good as Tiger once was, but are better than Tiger on his bad, mediocre, and decent days. I don’t think he’d win tournaments by 10 strokes anymore, healthy or not, so he will have to excel in other facets of the game in which he can get a leg up over the field again, while giving up the advantages he used to have.

  24. Steve S

    May 3, 2017 at 8:52 am

    I agree that Tiger COULD play and be good again, but I don’t thing his ego will allow him to revert to a finesse game from his power game….and he’ll have to become a much better putter.

  25. Hans

    May 3, 2017 at 8:51 am

    Tiger is the needle so you are probably going to get a lot of opinions here, but I just wanted to say thanks for the insight. Coming from someone who also had a fusion and played played golf at a very high level, it’s interesting what you say about a player being to play with limitations (but not pain). It would seem that being able to practice less is a big limitation (esp for Tiger since he likes to make swing changes) which might be the biggest roadblock, that and his age (he doesnt have a ton of time to learn to adapt). Insightful to hear how you were able to adapt and produce great golf again in a similar situation.

  26. cgasucks

    May 3, 2017 at 7:56 am

    I look forward seeing Tiger win again….on the Champions Tour.

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Opinion & Analysis

The Wedge Guy: What really makes a wedge work? Part 1

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Of all the clubs in our bags, wedges are almost always the simplest in construction and, therefore, the easiest to analyze what might make one work differently from another if you know what to look for.

Wedges are a lot less mysterious than drivers, of course, as the major brands are working with a lot of “pixie dust” inside these modern marvels. That’s carrying over more to irons now, with so many new models featuring internal multi-material technologies, and almost all of them having a “badge” or insert in the back to allow more complex graphics while hiding the actual distribution of mass.

But when it comes to wedges, most on the market today are still single pieces of molded steel, either cast or forged into that shape. So, if you look closely at where the mass is distributed, it’s pretty clear how that wedge is going to perform.

To start, because of their wider soles, the majority of the mass of almost any wedge is along the bottom third of the clubhead. So, the best wedge shots are always those hit between the 2nd and 5th grooves so that more mass is directly behind that impact. Elite tour professionals practice incessantly to learn to do that consistently, wearing out a spot about the size of a penny right there. If impact moves higher than that, the face is dramatically thinner, so smash factor is compromised significantly, which reduces the overall distance the ball will fly.

Every one of us, tour players included, knows that maddening shot that we feel a bit high on the face and it doesn’t go anywhere, it’s not your fault.

If your wedges show a wear pattern the size of a silver dollar, and centered above the 3rd or 4th groove, you are not getting anywhere near the same performance from shot to shot. Robot testing proves impact even two to three grooves higher in the face can cause distance loss of up to 35 to 55 feet with modern ‘tour design’ wedges.

In addition, as impact moves above the center of mass, the golf club principle of gear effect causes the ball to fly higher with less spin. Think of modern drivers for a minute. The “holy grail” of driving is high launch and low spin, and the driver engineers are pulling out all stops to get the mass as low in the clubhead as possible to optimize this combination.

Where is all the mass in your wedges? Low. So, disregarding the higher lofts, wedges “want” to launch the ball high with low spin – exactly the opposite of what good wedge play requires penetrating ball flight with high spin.

While almost all major brand wedges have begun putting a tiny bit more thickness in the top portion of the clubhead, conventional and modern ‘tour design’ wedges perform pretty much like they always have. Elite players learn to hit those crisp, spinny penetrating wedge shots by spending lots of practice time learning to consistently make contact low in the face.

So, what about grooves and face texture?

Grooves on any club can only do so much, and no one has any material advantage here. The USGA tightly defines what we manufacturers can do with grooves and face texture, and modern manufacturing techniques allow all of us to push those limits ever closer. And we all do. End of story.

Then there’s the topic of bounce and grinds, the most complex and confusing part of the wedge formula. Many top brands offer a complex array of sole configurations, all of them admittedly specialized to a particular kind of lie or turf conditions, and/or a particular divot pattern.

But if you don’t play the same turf all the time, and make the same size divot on every swing, how would you ever figure this out?

The only way is to take any wedge you are considering and play it a few rounds, hitting all the shots you face and observing the results. There’s simply no other way.

So, hopefully this will inspire a lively conversation in our comments section, and I’ll chime in to answer any questions you might have.

And next week, I’ll dive into the rest of the wedge formula. Yes, shafts, grips and specifications are essential, too.

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Golf's Perfect Imperfections

Golf’s Perfect Imperfections: Amazing Session with Performance Coach Savannah Meyer-Clement

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In this week’s episode, we spent some time with performance coach Savannah Meyer-Clement who provides many useful insights that you’ll be able to implement on the golf course.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 RBC Heritage betting preview: Patrick Cantlay ready to get back inside winner’s circle

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Just a two-hour drive from Augusta National, the PGA TOUR heads to Harbour Town Golf Links in Hilton Head Island, S.C. Hilton Head Island is a golfer’s paradise and Harbour Town is one of the most beautiful and scenic courses on the PGA TOUR.

Harbour Town Golf Links is a par-71 that measures 7,121 yards and features Bermuda grass greens. A Pete Dye design, the course is heavily tree lined and features small greens and many dog legs, protecting it from “bomb-and-gauge” type golfers.

The field is loaded this week with 69 golfers with no cut. Last year was quite possibly the best field in RBC Heritage history and the event this week is yet another designated event, meaning there is a $20 million prize pool.

Most of the big names on the PGA Tour will be in attendance this week with the exceptions of Hideki Matsuyama and Viktor Hovland. Additionally, Webb Simpson, Shane Lowry, Gary Woodland and Kevin Kisner have been granted sponsors exemptions. 

Past Winners at Harbour Town

  • 2023: Matt Fitzpatrick (-17)
  • 2022: Jordan Spieth (-13)
  • 2021: Stewart Cink (-19)
  • 2020: Webb Simpson (-22)
  • 2019: CT Pan (-12)
  • 2018: Sotoshi Kodaira (-12)
  • 2017: Wesley Bryan (-13)
  • 2016: Branden Grace (-9)
  • 2015: Jim Furyk (-18)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value).

Key Stats For Harbour Town

Let’s take a look at key metrics for Harbour Town Golf Links to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their past 24 rounds.

Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach is exceedingly important this week. The greens at Harbour Town are about half the size of PGA TOUR average and feature the second-smallest greens on the tour. Typical of a Pete Dye design, golfers will pay the price for missed greens.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+1.27)
  2. Tom Hoge (+1.27)
  3. Corey Conners (+1.16)
  4. Austin Eckroat (+0.95)
  5. Cameron Young (+0.93)

Good Drive %

The fairways at Harbour Town are tree lined and feature many dog legs. Bombers tend to struggle at the course because it forces layups and doesn’t allow long drivers to overpower it. Accuracy is far more important than power.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (88.8%)
  2. Shane Lowry (+87.2%)
  3. Akshay Bhatia (+86.0%)
  4. Si Woo Kim (+85.8%)
  5. Sepp Straka (+85.1%)

Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye Designs

Pete Dye specialists tend to play very well at Harbour Town. Si Woo Kim, Matt Kuchar, Jim Furyk and Webb Simpson are all Pete Dye specialists who have had great success here. It is likely we see some more specialists near the top of the leaderboard this week.

SG: TOT Pete Dye per round over past 36 rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+2.27)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+2.24)
  3. Ludvig Aberg (+2.11)
  4. Brian Harman (+1.89)
  5. Sungjae Im (+1.58)

4. Strokes Gained: Short Game (Bermuda)

Strokes Gained: Short Game factors in both around the green and putting. With many green-side bunkers and tricky green complexes, both statistics will be important. Past winners — such as Jim Furyk, Wes Bryan and Webb Simpson — highlight how crucial the short game skill set is around Harbour Town.

SG: SG Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Jordan Spieth (+1.11)
  2. Taylor Moore (+1.02)
  3. Wyndham Clark (+0.98)
  4. Mackenzie Hughes (+0.86)
  5. Andrew Putnam (+0.83)

5. Greens in Regulation %

The recipe for success at Harbour Town Golf Links is hitting fairways and greens. Missing either will prove to be consequential — golfers must be in total control of the ball to win.

Greens in Regulation % over past 24 rounds:

  1. Brice Garnett (+75.0%)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+69.9%)
  3. Corey Conners (+69.0%)
  4. Shane Lowry (+68.3%)
  5. Patrick Rodgers (+67.6%)

6. Course History

Harbour Town is a course where players who have strong past results at the course always tend to pop up. 

Course History over past 24 rounds:

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+2.34)
  2. Cam Davis (+2.05)
  3. J.T. Poston (+1.69)
  4. Justin Rose (+1.68)
  5. Tommy Fleetwood (+1.59)

The RBC Heritage Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (24%), Good Drives (20%), SG: SG (14%), SG: Pete Dye (14%), GIR (14%), and Course History (14%)

  1. Shane Lowry
  2. Russell Henley
  3. Scottie Scheffler
  4. Xander Schauffele
  5. Corey Conners 
  6. Wyndham Clark
  7. Christiaan Bezuidenhout
  8. Matt Fitzpatrick
  9. Cameron Young
  10. Ludvig Aberg 

2024 RBC Heritage Picks

Patrick Cantlay +2000 (FanDuel)

With the exception of Scottie Scheffler, the PGA Tour has yet to have any of their star players show peak form during the 2024 season. Last week, Patrick Cantlay, who I believe is a top-5 players on the PGA Tour, took one step closer to regaining the form that’s helped him win eight events on Tour since 2017.

Cantlay limped into the Masters in poor form, but figured it out at Augusta National, finishing in a tie for 20th and ranking 17th for the week in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. The former FedEx Cup champion will now head to one of his favorite golf courses in Harbour Town, where he’s had immaculate results over the years. In his six trips to the course, he’s only finished worse than 7th one time. The other finishes include three third places (2017, 2019, 2023) and one runner-up finish (2022). In his past 36 rounds at Harbour Town, Cantlay ranks 1st in Strokes Gained: Total per round at the course by a wide margin (+2.36).

Cantlay is winless since the 2022 BMW Championship, which is far too long for a player of his caliber. With signs pointing to the 32-year-old returning to form, a “signature event” at Harbour Town is just what he needs to get back on the winning track.

Tommy Fleetwood +3000 (FanDuel)

I truly believe Tommy Fleetwood will figure out a way to win on American soil in 2024. It’s certainly been a bugaboo for him throughout his career, but he is simply too talented to go another season without winning a PGA Tour event.

At last week’s Masters Tournament, Fleetwood made a Sunday charge and ended up finishing T3 in the event, which was his best ever finish at The Masters. For the week, the Englishman ranked 8th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, 10th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking and 16th in Strokes Gained: Putting.

Harbour Town is a perfect layout for Fleetwood, and he’s had relative success at this Pete Dye design in the past.  In his four trips to the course, he’s finished inside of the top 25 three times, with his best finish, T10, coming in 2022. The course is pretty short and can’t be overpowered, which gives an advantage to more accurate players such as Fleetwood. Tommy ranks 8th in the field in Good Drive % and should be able to plot his way along this golf course.

The win is coming for Tommy lad. I believe there’s a chance this treasure of a golf course may be the perfect one for him to finally break through on Tour.

Cameron Young +3300 (FanDuel)

Cameron Young had a solid Masters Tournament last week, which is exactly what I’m looking for in players who I anticipate playing well this week at the RBC Heritage. He finished in a tie for 9th, but never felt the pressure of contending in the event. For the week, Young ranked 6th in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking.

Despite being one of the longest players off the tee on the PGA Tour, Young has actually played some really good golf on shorter tracks. He finished T3 at Harbour Town in 2023 and ranks 20th in the field in Good Drive% and 16th in Greens in Regulation in his past 24 rounds. He also has strong finishes at other shorter courses that can take driver out of a players hand such as Copperhead and PGA National.

Young is simply one of the best players on the PGA Tour in 2024, and I strongly believe has what it takes to win a PGA Tour event in the very near future.

Corey Conners +5500 (FanDuel)

Corey Conners has had a disappointing year thus far on the PGA Tour, but absolutely loves Harbour Town.

At last week’s Masters Tournament, the Canadian finished T30 but ranked 20th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach. In his past 24 rounds, Conners ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, 3rd in Greens in Regulation % and 24th in Good Drive %.

In Conners’ last four trips to Harbour Town, his worst finish was T31, last season. He finished T4 in 2021, T12 in 2022 and ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Total at the course over his past 36 rounds.

Conners hasn’t been contending, but his recent finishes have been encouraging as he has finished in the top-25 in each of his past three starts prior to The Masters, including an impressive T13 at The PLAYERS. His recent improvement in ball striking as well as his suitability for Harbour Town makes Conners a high upside bet this week.

Shane Lowry (+7500) (FanDuel)

When these odds were posted after Lowry was announced in the field, I have to admit I was pretty stunned. Despite not offering much win equity on the PGA Tour over the last handful of years, Shane Lowry is still a top caliber player who has the ability to rise to the top of a signature event.

Lowry struggled to score at The Masters last week, but he actually hit the ball really well. The Irishman ranked 1st for Strokes Gained: Approach on the week and 7th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. As usual, it was the putter that let him down, as he ranked 60th in the field in Strokes Gained: Putting.

Harbour Town is most definitely one of Lowry’s favorite courses on the PGA Tour. In his six starts there, he’s finished in the top 10 three times, including third twice. Lowry is sensational at Pete Dye designs and ranks 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in his past 36 rounds on Dye tracks. 

Lowry is perfect for Harbour Town. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 5th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 2nd in Good Drive% and 5th in Green in Regulation %. If he figures it out on the greens, Shane could have his first win in America since 2015.

Lucas Glover +12000 (FanDuel)

This is one of my weekly “bet the number” plays as I strongly believe the odds are just too long for a player of Glover’s caliber. The odds have been too long on Glover for a few weeks now, but this is the first event that I can get behind the veteran being able to actually contend at. 

Glover is quietly playing good golf and returning to the form he had after the understandable regression after his two massive victories at the end of 2023. He finished T20 at The Masters, which was his best ever finish at Augusta National. For the week, Lucas ranked 18th for Strokes Gained: Approach and 20th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking.

Over his past 24 rounds, Glover ranks 9th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 13th in Good Drive %. Harbour Town is a short course that the 44-year-old will be able to keep up with the top players on Tour off the tee. He’s played the course more than 20 times, with mixed results. His best finishes at Harbour Town include a T7 in 2008, but recently has a finish of T21 in 2020.

Glover has proven he can contend with the stars of the Tour on any given week, and this number is flat out disrespectful.

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