Opinion & Analysis
DeFrancesco: Why Tiger Can Still Come Back
Just about everyone who is interested in golf wants to know if Tiger can come back. I happen to think he can, and I have a unique perspective as to what he is going through.
I had my first back surgery (a single-disc laminectomy, much like Tiger’s first three back surgeries) in 1983 while I was playing the mini tours in Florida. I had been a First-Team All-American at LSU in 1979 (good team that year: Corey Pavin, Fred Couples, Bob Tway, John Cook, Bobby Clampett, Gary Hallberg, Scott Watkins and myself. Mark O’Meara, Payne Stewart, Joey Sindelar and Mark Wiebe were on the 2nd team), and I had turned professional a year later. I made it to the Q-School finals in 1985, but the amount of practice it took to get there blew up my back again and I had to have a two-level fusion at S1-L5 and L4-L5. I gave up trying to make the Tour and got a job teaching, and it took me a year before I could play 18 holes.
Unfortunately for me, my trials were not yet over. The fusion bone grew in too well, so I had to have another surgery in 1988 to make more room around the nerve roots that the fusion had stabilized. I took a couple of years off away from the game, but I got back into teaching in 1991. I got to be a busy teacher, but I was determined to continue to play competitively at the club pro level. I made a pretty good career out of it, earning player of the year honors in my section four times, qualifying for five PGA Championships (by finishing in the top-20 at the National) and winning the National Club Pro in 2001 at age 43. I had to be constantly mindful of how much I practiced, and there were many occasions when I had to withdraw from events. Over the years, I tried to make adjustments to my swing that would allow me to play and get the most out of my body I could.
As a young player, my swing resembled the greats of the 70s (Nicklaus, Watson, Miller, Weiskopf) with an exaggerated “reverse-C” finish. I discarded this type of action for a more Hogan-esque rotational swing that was less stressful on my lower spine. This held up nicely for the most part until about 2009, after which the stiffness that had built up and over time made it difficult to strike the ball well enough to compete at my accustomed level. In December of 2014, I went in for my fourth and last surgery. My surgeon opened space around the nerves exiting from the sides of the two discs above the fusion, L3-L4 and L2-L3. The main problem with a fusion is that it eliminates all rotation in that area of the spine, and biomechanically the areas above and to the sides of the fusion are stressed in an abnormal way. It took me eight months to get back to tournament golf after that, and I am now able to practice more than I have in many years.
As you know, Tiger Woods just underwent his fourth back surgery in the past two years (he has now caught up to me in the race no one wants to win), and most of the pundits are thinking that he is done and will never compete on a high level again — certainly not anywhere near the level he demonstrated from the early nineties to 2013. As I mentioned, I happen to disagree with that assessment, and I will tell you why. The thing that most people who have not had back problems don’t understand is the difference between pain and limitation. A player of Tiger’s caliber can learn to play with limitations. If his body won’t do as much of what it used to do, he can still adapt his swing to what his body will allow and play great golf. If the basic movements required to make a good swing cause pain, however, the body simply will not allow itself to be injured and thus it will stubbornly refuse to function in the manner the player wants it to.
Tiger has been trying to alleviate his pain with the less invasive surgeries he has undergone up to this most recent one. It hasn’t worked out because even the minimum amount of stress he has put on it trying to play has eventually brought about pain, and with pain the muscles spasm to protect the area from further damage. That’s the end of the attempt to play. Now that he has undergone a fusion to stabilize the spine and remove the faulty disc, he has a chance to eliminate the nerve pain caused by the narrowing of the nerve root openings. This is a big deal. My guess is that his surgeons have recommended a fusion procedure for some time, but the word “fusion” itself is kind of scary. The first orthopedic I ever saw for my back told me I would need a fusion. I thought he was crazy and found another doctor. Tiger probably felt like he could beat the problem with smaller measures, but after his last failed attempt at coming back he finally saw the writing on the wall and opted for the more drastic fix.
The key is this: if Tiger can play pain-free golf, he can figure out how to play within his limitations and can compete at the highest level. Ben Hogan is a great example of just such a scenario. Hogan was playing the best golf of his life in 1948 and early in 1949. Then he was hit head-on by a bus while driving back to Texas from a tournament. He suffered multiple serious injuries and almost died of blood clots a few weeks after the accident. He underwent a radical procedure to tie off one of the main arteries to his lower extremities, and as a result he had to soak in a hot tub for two hours and wrap his legs in ace bandages before every single round. In addition to the blood supply problems, Hogan also suffered a fractured left collarbone, a double ring fracture of the pelvis, a broken left ankle, a broken rib, and several deep cuts and contusions around his left eye. All of this served to shorten Hogan’s career (he essentially retired in 1955, six years after the accident), and he never played in more than six events in a single year after 1949. But due to his determination and technical knowledge of the golf swing, he could play through whatever pain he felt and was able to modify his swing. He was not as powerful, but he was perhaps even more precise.
Hogan won six majors between 1950 and 1953, and he came close in others. I see no reason why Tiger, if he can rid himself of the stinging nerve pain and muscle spasms that follow, can’t pull a Hogan and make a great comeback. I believe he needs to discard the notion of “explosiveness.” I am not talking about swinging easy, rather, I would like to see him compress less into the ground in the backswing and bring his hand path out toward the ball more in transition to give himself more space for his arms and hands and to encourage rotation in his lower body. He doesn’t have to hit it as far as Dustin Johnson to win majors; he can hit it as far as Zach Johnson and win.
Tiger may not need the money, but I certainly think he still has the drive to continue to compete and win PGA Tour events. I don’t believe he will give up, and this next attempt to make a comeback will again be something to watch.
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19th Hole
Vincenzi’s 2024 RBC Heritage betting preview: Patrick Cantlay ready to get back inside winner’s circle
Just a two-hour drive from Augusta National, the PGA TOUR heads to Harbour Town Golf Links in Hilton Head Island, S.C. Hilton Head Island is a golfer’s paradise and Harbour Town is one of the most beautiful and scenic courses on the PGA TOUR.
Harbour Town Golf Links is a par-71 that measures 7,121 yards and features Bermuda grass greens. A Pete Dye design, the course is heavily tree lined and features small greens and many dog legs, protecting it from “bomb-and-gauge” type golfers.
The field is loaded this week with 69 golfers with no cut. Last year was quite possibly the best field in RBC Heritage history and the event this week is yet another designated event, meaning there is a $20 million prize pool.
Most of the big names on the PGA Tour will be in attendance this week with the exceptions of Hideki Matsuyama and Viktor Hovland. Additionally, Webb Simpson, Shane Lowry, Gary Woodland and Kevin Kisner have been granted sponsors exemptions.
Past Winners at Harbour Town
- 2023: Matt Fitzpatrick (-17)
- 2022: Jordan Spieth (-13)
- 2021: Stewart Cink (-19)
- 2020: Webb Simpson (-22)
- 2019: CT Pan (-12)
- 2018: Sotoshi Kodaira (-12)
- 2017: Wesley Bryan (-13)
- 2016: Branden Grace (-9)
- 2015: Jim Furyk (-18)
In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value).
Key Stats For Harbour Town
Let’s take a look at key metrics for Harbour Town Golf Links to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their past 24 rounds.
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Approach is exceedingly important this week. The greens at Harbour Town are about half the size of PGA TOUR average and feature the second-smallest greens on the tour. Typical of a Pete Dye design, golfers will pay the price for missed greens.
Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds
- Scottie Scheffler (+1.27)
- Tom Hoge (+1.27)
- Corey Conners (+1.16)
- Austin Eckroat (+0.95)
- Cameron Young (+0.93)
Good Drive %
The fairways at Harbour Town are tree lined and feature many dog legs. Bombers tend to struggle at the course because it forces layups and doesn’t allow long drivers to overpower it. Accuracy is far more important than power.
Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds
- Brice Garnett (88.8%)
- Shane Lowry (+87.2%)
- Akshay Bhatia (+86.0%)
- Si Woo Kim (+85.8%)
- Sepp Straka (+85.1%)
Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye Designs
Pete Dye specialists tend to play very well at Harbour Town. Si Woo Kim, Matt Kuchar, Jim Furyk and Webb Simpson are all Pete Dye specialists who have had great success here. It is likely we see some more specialists near the top of the leaderboard this week.
SG: TOT Pete Dye per round over past 36 rounds:
- Xander Schauffele (+2.27)
- Scottie Scheffler (+2.24)
- Ludvig Aberg (+2.11)
- Brian Harman (+1.89)
- Sungjae Im (+1.58)
4. Strokes Gained: Short Game (Bermuda)
Strokes Gained: Short Game factors in both around the green and putting. With many green-side bunkers and tricky green complexes, both statistics will be important. Past winners — such as Jim Furyk, Wes Bryan and Webb Simpson — highlight how crucial the short game skill set is around Harbour Town.
SG: SG Over Past 24 Rounds
- Jordan Spieth (+1.11)
- Taylor Moore (+1.02)
- Wyndham Clark (+0.98)
- Mackenzie Hughes (+0.86)
- Andrew Putnam (+0.83)
5. Greens in Regulation %
The recipe for success at Harbour Town Golf Links is hitting fairways and greens. Missing either will prove to be consequential — golfers must be in total control of the ball to win.
Greens in Regulation % over past 24 rounds:
- Brice Garnett (+75.0%)
- Scottie Scheffler (+69.9%)
- Corey Conners (+69.0%)
- Shane Lowry (+68.3%)
- Patrick Rodgers (+67.6%)
6. Course History
Harbour Town is a course where players who have strong past results at the course always tend to pop up.
Course History over past 24 rounds:
- Patrick Cantlay (+2.34)
- Cam Davis (+2.05)
- J.T. Poston (+1.69)
- Justin Rose (+1.68)
- Tommy Fleetwood (+1.59)
The RBC Heritage Model Rankings
Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (24%), Good Drives (20%), SG: SG (14%), SG: Pete Dye (14%), GIR (14%), and Course History (14%)
- Shane Lowry
- Russell Henley
- Scottie Scheffler
- Xander Schauffele
- Corey Conners
- Wyndham Clark
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout
- Matt Fitzpatrick
- Cameron Young
- Ludvig Aberg
2024 RBC Heritage Picks
Patrick Cantlay +2000 (FanDuel)
With the exception of Scottie Scheffler, the PGA Tour has yet to have any of their star players show peak form during the 2024 season. Last week, Patrick Cantlay, who I believe is a top-5 players on the PGA Tour, took one step closer to regaining the form that’s helped him win eight events on Tour since 2017.
Cantlay limped into the Masters in poor form, but figured it out at Augusta National, finishing in a tie for 20th and ranking 17th for the week in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. The former FedEx Cup champion will now head to one of his favorite golf courses in Harbour Town, where he’s had immaculate results over the years. In his six trips to the course, he’s only finished worse than 7th one time. The other finishes include three third places (2017, 2019, 2023) and one runner-up finish (2022). In his past 36 rounds at Harbour Town, Cantlay ranks 1st in Strokes Gained: Total per round at the course by a wide margin (+2.36).
Cantlay is winless since the 2022 BMW Championship, which is far too long for a player of his caliber. With signs pointing to the 32-year-old returning to form, a “signature event” at Harbour Town is just what he needs to get back on the winning track.
Tommy Fleetwood +3000 (FanDuel)
I truly believe Tommy Fleetwood will figure out a way to win on American soil in 2024. It’s certainly been a bugaboo for him throughout his career, but he is simply too talented to go another season without winning a PGA Tour event.
At last week’s Masters Tournament, Fleetwood made a Sunday charge and ended up finishing T3 in the event, which was his best ever finish at The Masters. For the week, the Englishman ranked 8th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, 10th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking and 16th in Strokes Gained: Putting.
Harbour Town is a perfect layout for Fleetwood, and he’s had relative success at this Pete Dye design in the past. In his four trips to the course, he’s finished inside of the top 25 three times, with his best finish, T10, coming in 2022. The course is pretty short and can’t be overpowered, which gives an advantage to more accurate players such as Fleetwood. Tommy ranks 8th in the field in Good Drive % and should be able to plot his way along this golf course.
The win is coming for Tommy lad. I believe there’s a chance this treasure of a golf course may be the perfect one for him to finally break through on Tour.
Cameron Young +3300 (FanDuel)
Cameron Young had a solid Masters Tournament last week, which is exactly what I’m looking for in players who I anticipate playing well this week at the RBC Heritage. He finished in a tie for 9th, but never felt the pressure of contending in the event. For the week, Young ranked 6th in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking.
Despite being one of the longest players off the tee on the PGA Tour, Young has actually played some really good golf on shorter tracks. He finished T3 at Harbour Town in 2023 and ranks 20th in the field in Good Drive% and 16th in Greens in Regulation in his past 24 rounds. He also has strong finishes at other shorter courses that can take driver out of a players hand such as Copperhead and PGA National.
Young is simply one of the best players on the PGA Tour in 2024, and I strongly believe has what it takes to win a PGA Tour event in the very near future.
Corey Conners +5500 (FanDuel)
Corey Conners has had a disappointing year thus far on the PGA Tour, but absolutely loves Harbour Town.
At last week’s Masters Tournament, the Canadian finished T30 but ranked 20th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach. In his past 24 rounds, Conners ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, 3rd in Greens in Regulation % and 24th in Good Drive %.
In Conners’ last four trips to Harbour Town, his worst finish was T31, last season. He finished T4 in 2021, T12 in 2022 and ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Total at the course over his past 36 rounds.
Conners hasn’t been contending, but his recent finishes have been encouraging as he has finished in the top-25 in each of his past three starts prior to The Masters, including an impressive T13 at The PLAYERS. His recent improvement in ball striking as well as his suitability for Harbour Town makes Conners a high upside bet this week.
Shane Lowry (+7500) (FanDuel)
When these odds were posted after Lowry was announced in the field, I have to admit I was pretty stunned. Despite not offering much win equity on the PGA Tour over the last handful of years, Shane Lowry is still a top caliber player who has the ability to rise to the top of a signature event.
Lowry struggled to score at The Masters last week, but he actually hit the ball really well. The Irishman ranked 1st for Strokes Gained: Approach on the week and 7th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. As usual, it was the putter that let him down, as he ranked 60th in the field in Strokes Gained: Putting.
Harbour Town is most definitely one of Lowry’s favorite courses on the PGA Tour. In his six starts there, he’s finished in the top 10 three times, including third twice. Lowry is sensational at Pete Dye designs and ranks 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in his past 36 rounds on Dye tracks.
Lowry is perfect for Harbour Town. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 5th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 2nd in Good Drive% and 5th in Green in Regulation %. If he figures it out on the greens, Shane could have his first win in America since 2015.
Lucas Glover +12000 (FanDuel)
This is one of my weekly “bet the number” plays as I strongly believe the odds are just too long for a player of Glover’s caliber. The odds have been too long on Glover for a few weeks now, but this is the first event that I can get behind the veteran being able to actually contend at.
Glover is quietly playing good golf and returning to the form he had after the understandable regression after his two massive victories at the end of 2023. He finished T20 at The Masters, which was his best ever finish at Augusta National. For the week, Lucas ranked 18th for Strokes Gained: Approach and 20th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking.
Over his past 24 rounds, Glover ranks 9th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 13th in Good Drive %. Harbour Town is a short course that the 44-year-old will be able to keep up with the top players on Tour off the tee. He’s played the course more than 20 times, with mixed results. His best finishes at Harbour Town include a T7 in 2008, but recently has a finish of T21 in 2020.
Glover has proven he can contend with the stars of the Tour on any given week, and this number is flat out disrespectful.
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19th Hole
Vincenzi: The 6 biggest takeaways from the 2024 Masters
The 2024 Masters offered up plenty of excitement throughout the week with Scottie Scheffler delivering when it mattered to live up to his pre-tournament favorite tag. With the year’s opening major now in the books, here are my six biggest takeaways from the 2024 Masters.
Scheffler In a League of His Own
In the most impressive way possible, Scottie Scheffler won the Masters without having his absolute best stuff. For the week, Scottie ranked 19th in Strokes Gained: Approach, which is a category the number player in the world typically dusts the rest of the field in. After a strong approach day on Thursday, the 27-year-old lost strokes to the field on approach on Friday and Saturday, before gaining on Sunday. The iron performance was more than solid, but it was an all-around game that helped Scheffler get it done around Augusta National.
For a year or more, the narrative around Scheffler has been, “With his ball striking, if he can just putt to field average, he’ll be unbeatable.” At Augusta, his ball striking came back down to earth, but his touch around the greens and ability to manage the golf course demonstrated why he is the best player on the planet right now. For the week, Scheffler ranked 1st in the field in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and 24th in Strokes Gained: Putting.
For the time being, there is a major gap between Scottie Scheffler and the second-best player in the world, whoever that may be.
The Future is Now
Ludvig Aberg went into his first back-nine at the Masters with a legitimate shot to win the tournament. When he teed it up on the treacherous 11th hole, he was one behind Scottie Scheffler, who had just stuck one to a few feet on the 9th. By the time he approached his tee shot, which was perfectly striped down the left side of the fairway, he was two behind. Unfortunately, the 24-year-old got too aggressive with his approach at the 11th and found the water, making double bogey. Ludvig rebounded nicely and finished the event in solo second place.
With the Masters now in the rearview, it’s never been more evident that Ludvig Aberg is no longer an “up-and-comer” — he has arrived. The Swede has been an integral part of a winning European Ryder Cup team and has now contended at Augusta National. With a calm demeanor, a picture-perfect swing, and a build and stature that appears as if it was built in a lab, Ludvig Aberg is already amongst the world’s best. I’d be extremely surprised if he wasn’t in the mix at next month’s PGA Championship at Valhalla.
Nostalgia Wins
I try to avoid as many cliches as possible, but there’s something about the Masters that brings out the sentimentality in me. Tiger Woods strategically making his way around Augusta National without all of the physical tools that made him arguably the most dominant athlete in the history of sports will always be riveting, regardless of what score he shoots. Woods made it interesting until a tough stretch of holes on Saturday, but he ultimately wore down, shooting 16 over for the week in difficult conditions. It’s remarkable that the 15-time major champion was able to put together a few solid rounds of golf despite barely playing any competitive golf in 2024. As long as Woods tees it up at Augusta, we will all continue to be mesmerized by it.
Verne Lundquist’s 40th and final Masters Tournament was also a must-watch aspect of the event. The iconic voice of Lundquist and his calls throughout the years still give me chills each time I hear them. Verne is an icon of the game and will be missed in future renditions of the Masters.
The Masters also brings another element that is unique to the tournament. Former champions turn back the clock to battle with the golf course again which creates some amazing stories. There are a few that stick out this year and were an absolute pleasure to witness. 61-year-old Vijay Singh made the cut for the first time since 2018 and shot a pretty incredible even-par, 72 on Sunday. 58-year-old José María Olazábal made the cut as well, reminding us why fellow Spaniard Jon Rahm sought his valuable advice prior to his Masters victory in 2022.
Regardless of who wins, the Masters always delivers.
Bryson Moves the Needle
Plenty will disagree with me on this point, but outside of Tiger Woods, and potentially Rory McIlroy and Jordan Spieth, no one moves the needle in golf as much as Bryson DeChambeau. The uniqueness in which Bryson approaches the game has always been fascinating, and if he gets near the top of the leaderboard at any major championship, whether it’s to root for him or against him, people are interested.
It began on Monday with a pretty bizarre story of DeChambeau using 3D-printed irons that got just got cleared for use by the USGA when the week began. It once again felt like a storyline that would only be possible with a character as eccentric as Bryson. He then raced off to a first-round lead in tough conditions, reminding the world of what made him such a great golfer to begin with. He made some mistakes on the weekend, but still finished a career best T6 at The Masters.
Bryson is more than just quirky; he is a former U.S. Amateur Champion and U.S. Open who I believe will contend for more majors in the future. I will continue to root for DeChambeau, but I’m perfectly content with the fact that plenty will root against him, and I encourage those people to do so. That’s what makes it fun.
LIV Walks Away Empty-Handed
Last year, there were a multitude of questions about LIV players coming into the year’s first major. They had played very limited tournament golf, and critics of LIV questioned whether the 54-hole events were enough to sharpen the players enough to compete against the best in the world on the biggest stage.
The results were fascinating, with LIV players all over the leaderboard. Brooks Koepka held the 36- and 54-hole lead, with Phil Mickelson and Patrick Reed finishing T2 and T4, giving LIV three golfers in the top-4 of the leaderboard.
This season, with even more time removed and with some more massive additions to the roster, the intrigue surrounding LIV players at Augusta was once again palpable. While some players, including Bryson DeChambeau, exceeded expectations, I can’t help but walk away from the Masters feeling underwhelmed by the performance of the LIV players.
Brooks Koepka finished runner-up last season and is a certified major championship killer. The 5-time major champ was never involved and simply didn’t have it at Augusta. Dustin Johnson put together a putrid performance, shooting 13 over for his two rounds, making it fair to wonder if his days of contending at major championships are over as he rapidly approaches his 40th birthday.
Jon Rahm and Joaquin Niemann were both players who were amongst the favorites this week, but Rahm was faced with the daunting duties of defending champion and Niemann proved he was still not quite ready to master the quirks of Augusta National, bleeding strokes both around and on the greens.
To be fair, when all was said and done, LIV had four players in the top twelve at The Masters. Tyrrell Hatton stormed the leaderboard early on Sunday, finishing T9 and earning himself an invite back to Augusta next season. Cam Smith and Patrick Reed put together gritty performances, which isn’t too surprising considering the fact that they both absolutely love Augusta National, but neither ever felt a real threat to win. There’s no doubt the players on LIV are good, and that’s why some encouraging leaderboard positions aren’t enough. They needed to contend.
With no players part of the storyline on Sunday, I view the first major of the year as a disappointment for LIV. The players will head into next month’s PGA Championship at Valhalla with a lot to prove.
Rory’s Struggles Continues
Rory struggling at Augusta National is no surprise at this point. The four-time major champion has now had 10 attempts to complete the career grand slam and has never had a chance to win. His T2 in 2022 was deceiving, the Northern Irishman stormed the leaderboard on Sunday, but was never in contention, and never got within three shots of the winner, Scottie Scheffler.
I didn’t expect Rory to win, but I have to admit that this year felt a bit different. McIlroy played the week prior to the Masters, which he typically doesn’t do, and finished third at the Valero Texas Open. He gained 7.56 strokes on approach and 2.0 strokes off the tee, which told me that his visit with world-renowned swing coach, Butch Harmon, after the Players Championship paid dividends.
McIlroy also approached the media quite differently. He cut his pre-tournament press conference short after only 10 minutes and seemed to be laser-focused on just playing golf.
Despite the different approach to the Masters, the results were the same. McIlroy struggled over the course of the week, finishing T22 (+4) and never sniffed a decent weekend position on the leaderboard. It’s back to the drawing board for McIlroy, and I have doubts that he will ever figure it out at Augusta.
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19th Hole
Vincenzi: The 8 best prop bets for the 2024 Masters
We’ve finally reached The Masters and excitement is at an all-time high. The world of golf has been fractured for the better part of two years, but for a week at Augusta National, all of the outside noise will disappear. All of the best players in the world will be together seeking to make history.
In addition to betting on The Masters champion. This is one of the few weeks of the year where there are so many more markets to explore, with value to be had in plenty of different categories.
Throughout this article, I’ll discuss all of my favorite props and players for the 2024 Masters.
Placement Bets:
Tony Finau Top 5 +750 (DraftKings):
I badly wanted to include Tony Finau in my outright betting selections, but I simply ran out of room on my card. Additionally, it’s slightly difficult to see him hitting the putts necessary to win the Masters on back nine on Sunday. However, I do strongly believe he will play great golf this week at Augusta National.
In his past 24 rounds, Finau ranks 4th in Strokes Gained: Approach is always amongst the best drivers of the golf ball in the game. Back in 2019, Finau had a great chance to win The Masters. I expect him to be hanging around over the weekend once again in 2024.
Gary Woodland Top 20 +550 (DraftKings), Gary Woodland to make the cut -110 (DraftKings):
Last season, Gary Woodland had his best ever finish at The Masters in his eleven tries. The 39-year-old finished T14 and played incredibly steady across all four rounds.
In Woodland’s most recent start at the Texas Children’s Houston Open, he struck the ball incredibly well. He led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach (+8.8) and Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (+10.0).
Gary has been working with Butch Harmon and absolutely flushing the ball both in tournaments and during practice.
Woodland appears to be healthy once again and in a great place physically and mentally. If he can build off his impressive performance at Augusta last year, he can place inside the top ten in 2024.
Additionally, the make the cut number on Woodland seems generous considering the number of players who miss the cut will be relatively small this week. Woodland is striking it well enough to make the cut even if he’s hindered by a balky putter once again.
Thorbjorn Olesen Top 20 +400 (FanDuel):
The Thunder Bear, Thorbjorn Olesen, made his Masters debut in 2013 and finished an incredibly impressive T6 for the week. In the two additional starts he’s made at Augusta National since then, the Dane has continued to be incredibly solid, finishing T44 and T21.
This week, Olesen heads into the week playing some good golf. He gained 3.8 strokes on approach and 5.52 strokes around the green at last week’s Valero Texas Open on his way to a strong T14 finish. Back in January, he won the Ras Al Khaimah Championship on the DP World Tour.
Olesen has the skill set to be successful at Augusta and seems primed for a good performance this week.
Top Nationalities:
Sergio Garcia Top Spanish Player +280 (DraftKings):
I believe Sergio Garcia can get into contention this week with the way he’s striking the ball in addition to his good vibes with a refurbished version of the Scotty Cameron that he used at the 1999 PGA Championship at Medinah.
I am slightly concerned about the emotional letdown he may face after losing in a playoff at LIV Miami, but I believe a veteran and former Masters champion should be able to regroup and focus on an event far more meaningful.
This is essentially a tournament head-to-head with Jon Rahm at +280. While Rahm deserves to be respected this week, the history of the lack of success of defending champions at The Masters is difficult to ignore.
Joaquin Niemann Top South American Player -230 (FanDuel):
While I hate paying this much juice, I don’t see a world in which Joaquin Niemann isn’t the top South American this week at The Masters. Joaco comes in playing better golf than anyone in the world not named Scottie Scheffler and has a serious chance to win the green jacket.
He only needs to beat two players: Emiliano Grillo and Camilo Villegas.
Tournament Head-to-Heads:
Justin Thomas -110 over Collin Morikawa
JT isn’t having his best season but is playing a lot better than he is getting credit for at the moment. In the past three months, there are only six players on the PGA Tour who have averaged 1.7 Strokes Gained: Tee to Green or better. Justin Thomas (+1.7) is one of the six and is currently tied with Rory McIlroy (+1.7).
Morikawa, on the other hand, has been extremely poor with his irons, which is incredibly uncharacteristic for him. I can’t help but feel like something is completely off with the two-time major champion.
Tony Finau -110 over Wyndham Clark
I explained in the placement section why I’m so high on Tony Finau this week. With how well he’s striking the ball, it seems as if his floor is extremely high. I’m not sure if he can make the putts to win a green jacket but I believe he will be in the mix similarly to 2019 when Tiger Woods emerged from a crowded pack of contenders.
Clark is a debutant, and while some debutants have had success at The Masters, it certainly poses a challenge. I also don’t believe Augusta National suits Clark as well as some of the other major championship venues.
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Pete
May 5, 2017 at 4:52 am
I haven’t been a Tiger fan ever since the infamous “loose impediment” incident in 1999 (not in the spirit of golf IMHO). That said, I do hope he can comeback and compete at the highest level again because it will be great for the sport I love.
rymail00
May 4, 2017 at 8:09 pm
Great article Wayne, really enjoyed and hope read more from you. Maybe even lesson articles too if possible.
Steve Wozeniak
May 4, 2017 at 3:34 pm
He is done unless he finds a coach that knows what he is talking about. Foley and Como are twins they teach the same garbage……duh…..let’s swing left, even though the target is not over there and it will destroy my back….yep let’s just swing left baby!!!!!! Time for a course on simple physics….
Steve Wozeniak PGA
SH
May 4, 2017 at 7:16 pm
I love you Steve
Doug Ferreri
May 8, 2017 at 7:21 am
Finally another voice of reason.
farmer
May 4, 2017 at 2:10 pm
WayneD played at a high level-for a club pro. Not close to tour level. Tiger is 41, by WD’s words, it’s going to be 8 months before he can start to work again, so, 42. He’s going to have to learn a new swing, which is going to take a year to get grooved, so he’s now around 43, he’s forced to play a very limited schedule, limited range time … there’s just too many things. Even without the injuries, Tiger last won a major in 2008, and he is at the age where golf careers begin to tail off. I would like Tiger to be pain free, play an occasional tournament with no great expectations and be able to live a normal life, whatever passes as normal for a rich celebrity. As a force on tour, nope, never going to happen.
Mitch Young
May 4, 2017 at 11:44 am
3 years ago tiger woods was still the best iron player in the world when he hit the fw, even though he had the worst year of his career. just put that into perspective, his absolute worse and put an iron in his hands and he beats the best of the best. tiger is a very special talent, one we will never ever see again, all the things that we think that are extraordinary is simply trivial to him. when you are so ahead of the curve, you will always have a boxer’s chance at winning in golf or better yet a major championship. the masters is a crap shoot with a limited field every year. the british open is weather the most weather dependant major. i doubt tiger would ever win a US open, he just doesn’t drive the ball well enough to be a front runner. the pga i say he will have a harder time winning. so for a 42 year old with multiple back surgeries, he still has a 2.5/4 of winning a major.
James Stephens
May 4, 2017 at 10:03 am
Tigers never gonna swing hands out coming down. He can’t do it. He’s done. Wayne D is a master bs artist
Mr Muira
May 4, 2017 at 8:14 am
Tiger is done, fried, cooked, finito. It was a pleasure watching him.
NolanMBA
May 4, 2017 at 7:31 am
My “good back” friends just don’t know what it’s like… When you are in an icy parking lot and consider getting down and rolling/crawling to get where you need to go just to prevent slipping and throwing your back out– then we can talk.
larrybud
May 3, 2017 at 10:39 pm
Because a 3 is sooo close to top pga tour players… huh.
lolerballz
May 9, 2017 at 4:59 am
haha! the classic USGA +3 hcp and yet if you play with him, he never goes lower than 80 :DDD
Jude
May 3, 2017 at 10:07 pm
Your writing is a breath of fresh air. Very encouraging I pray he plays again competitively.
Fat Perez
May 3, 2017 at 4:38 pm
Come back to WHAT?!
mlecuni
May 4, 2017 at 4:20 am
New era of TIGER being called PHOENIX ?
MATTHEW SIPE
May 3, 2017 at 3:48 pm
Everyone overlooks the amount of practice (daily) he would need to get back into tournament shape. That’s not gonna happen, he can’t continuously practice the amount needed to perform on the highest level due to these injuries.
H
May 3, 2017 at 11:41 am
You forget that the women get in the way. How he destroyed so many of them. Edlrick’s ego too. And the kind of money we’re talking about that Eldrick has, compared to what Hogan was making, is astronomical and can’t even be compared, the money is a massive factor that will take away the hunger to go after it. Plus it’s mostly the public and media scrutiny he faces every time he steps out to the course that he can’t handle. He never has been smart at making speeches nor speaking in public. His management team and agents surround him in a cocoon now so he doesn’t put his foot in the wrong thing, you can see he’d rather just be at home with the kids and be left alone. His agents and publicists are geniuses at keeping Eldrick’s noise in the media, keeping the world up to date, even trying to upend other people’s successes by publishing updates at inappropriate times. That’s the world he lives in. If it was pure golf for winning tournaments only and going for records, I’m sure he’d be out there gunning for it, but all this other stuff have stopped him. Has anybody asked how often he speaks to Elin or allow her to see each other’s kids or themselves, for that matter?
Dorcas
May 3, 2017 at 4:18 pm
“He never has been smart…”
The irony is real.
Bob Jones
May 3, 2017 at 11:29 am
Three spine surgeries here. I’ve had to learn to accept my limitations. I’m not sure Tiger’s out-sized ego can accept his. But, then, is he willing to go through missed cuts and mediocre finishes in his attempt to come back? Be just another Tour pro on his way to…what? That, not his back, will be the sticking point.
Golferguy
May 3, 2017 at 11:14 am
Tiger’s been beating up on his body with golf since he 3 or 4 years old. He should just take what’s left of his health and move on to coaching.
Chopper
May 3, 2017 at 11:09 am
So here is a guy that has played golf at the top 0.01% level and has happened to have very similar injuries and surgeries and all you 15 handicappers immediately dismiss his opinions because they do not line up with your predetermined outlook on Tiger. Interesting.
BD57
May 3, 2017 at 7:53 pm
Nelson, Snead, Palmer, Player, Weiskopf & Nicklaus, none of which I’m aware.
Hogan … um, there was this head on collision with a bus …….
hburt
May 3, 2017 at 10:43 am
Very well written article. You obviously know more than most about back pain and the golf swing. Like you said, with this major fix Tiger will have a chance to play pain free again. But still remains to be seen. Even if the physical part works out, he will have to muster the mental strength to come back and win again.
Definitely don’t question his mental strength when Earl was around – it was unparalleled. But since 2006, I do question it. I’m not sure he has it in him to humble himself and make swing changes to accommodate his physical limitations. Don’t think it’s in his DNA. I think he gets frustrated and just tries to power through.
I don’t question that he wants to come back and win. But I don’t think he knows how to struggle through tough times. His whole life he has always been the best. Not saying he didn’t work hard, but I think everything came pretty easily to him. He’s not used to seeing other guys blast it past him. He’s not used to having the chipping yips. That sort of thing never used to happen to him. I think it’s taken him down a few pegs, in our minds and in his own. That is what I think he won’t be able to overcome.
We’ll see. I actually hope you’re right and I’m wrong.
Tcann32
May 3, 2017 at 4:04 pm
I think you’re spot on with the statement of it not being in Tiger’s DNA to change the way he plays.. not enough to follow through with it anyways. He has started to change some aspects, but I just don’t see him slowing things down enough to make the necessary changes. This also begs the question: Without Tiger’s swing, the one that won countless tournaments (80-ish?) and 14 majors; is it still Tiger, and will he be good enough to compete as he once did with a different swing and approach to the game? He’s obviously going to be able to hold on to many, many very strong aspects of his game, but can he re-vamp other parts of his game well enough to compete with some of the things he will have to give up? Like you, I hope I, and you, are wrong. It’d be great to see him come back and win. Even just win a regular tournament. 2013 was really exciting to see the big cat come back and win again, even if it didn’t include any majors.
With what he has shown so far though, he’s going to have to re work his swing, his approach to the game, and his mental game as well, and that’s the part I think will hold him back. He’s a golf nut and couldn’t stay away entirely the last couple years, and couldn’t make the changes needed to stay healthy, and I’ll be surprised if he can do it again. Not to mention, after hitting what I must assume is a million golf balls with the same swing over many years, and now having that swing be limited, the road to recovery will include more than feeling good again, and will entail re-learning everything. I’m sure he can learn faster than anyone, but his muscle memory won’t do him any good because he’s going to have to change so much. His mental and muscle memory might even hurt him because those are the things that can’t be erased and much of it won’t fit into what he’s going to presumably attempt to do now. .
TvGuyJake
May 3, 2017 at 10:25 am
TW couldn’t even make it back as a caddie? I love the reasoning in these articles…ooh “let em get the reader’s attention” with some specious reasoning. Take off the rose-colored glasses,,,you’ve seen the last of TW; and that includes the Senior Tour. #MoveOn
Joe
May 3, 2017 at 10:10 am
the tiger is done. sorry. move on.
JD
May 3, 2017 at 9:42 am
Yeah sure…. and Grizzly Adams had a beard.
ooffa
May 3, 2017 at 9:16 am
Nah he’s washed up. Forever. Not coming back. Have to say he had a great run though.
Rex
May 3, 2017 at 10:26 am
Best run ever. Better than jacks. If anyone wants to argue that first think about wgc events
ooffa
May 4, 2017 at 8:51 am
That’s the issue. Tiger was a run. Jack was a marathon. The runner has collapsed. Jack was better.
Greg V
May 3, 2017 at 9:10 am
Hogan had only won 3 majors before his accident (4 if you count the Hale America Open during WWII). As well, he started his equipment company in 1953, so he had plenty of reasons work his tail off to win majors.
Tiger has already won 14 majors. Where’s the incentive?
ROY
May 3, 2017 at 9:57 am
He’s still short of Jack and Sam – thats his incentive…..
Tcann32
May 3, 2017 at 8:58 am
I have similar injuries to the writer, and to Tiger. It’s awful, nasty, and no fun at all. I have yet to undergo surgery as I’ve already had eight or nine operations in my shorter life span, and am not interested in going in for another. That being said, some days it seems like it’d be worth it.
Now, if the back is anything like other injuries after an operation, then the writer nailed it on the head in saying that Tiger will need to change some things about his swing and the way he plays. It’s possible to get your body to perform well enough to achieve the same end results as before, but you can’t do it in the ways in which you became injured in the first place, and Tiger doesn’t seem to want to change that so much. I also believe that with the right changes, he could come back in much better form than he has. The only question I really have, is without that explosive swing and style of play, will it really be Tiger, and will he be good enough to beat those that might not be as good as Tiger once was, but are better than Tiger on his bad, mediocre, and decent days. I don’t think he’d win tournaments by 10 strokes anymore, healthy or not, so he will have to excel in other facets of the game in which he can get a leg up over the field again, while giving up the advantages he used to have.
Steve S
May 3, 2017 at 8:52 am
I agree that Tiger COULD play and be good again, but I don’t thing his ego will allow him to revert to a finesse game from his power game….and he’ll have to become a much better putter.
Hans
May 3, 2017 at 8:51 am
Tiger is the needle so you are probably going to get a lot of opinions here, but I just wanted to say thanks for the insight. Coming from someone who also had a fusion and played played golf at a very high level, it’s interesting what you say about a player being to play with limitations (but not pain). It would seem that being able to practice less is a big limitation (esp for Tiger since he likes to make swing changes) which might be the biggest roadblock, that and his age (he doesnt have a ton of time to learn to adapt). Insightful to hear how you were able to adapt and produce great golf again in a similar situation.
cgasucks
May 3, 2017 at 7:56 am
I look forward seeing Tiger win again….on the Champions Tour.