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Are Your Approach Shots Holding You Back?

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The GolfWRX editors suggested that I research approach shots, as this is a crucial part of the game, and see if the stats can help golfers improve — or at least gain knowledge of the areas they need to improve.

As I did with my March 10 article: Research Shows Golfers Should Spend More Time Practicing Short Putts, I researched the average 17-handicap golfer from our database of more than 180,000 ShotByShot.com rounds.

I first isolated 3,200 rounds in our database with a 17 Slope Adjusted Differential (SAD). This would represent the average 17-handicap golfer (Mr. 17) when he played to his handicap or the best 10 of his most recent 20 rounds.

Next, I analyzed this large block of rounds just as I would a single player in order to reveal the strengths and weaknesses of his game. The results were interesting, and as you can see from the summary graphic below, his No. 1 Improvement Priority is Approach shot accuracy, specifically in the 150–175-yard range.

Appr. Art. 1

What does this analysis actually mean? Based upon our Strokes Gained model and analysis, in order for Mr. 17 to improve his game to the level of his “Target” Handicap (10 to 14), he would need the most improvement in his approach game and specifically on the 150–175-yard shots.

One might ask: Why not his Chip/Pitch facet? It is also at a relative handicap of 20. Simple, he only has 9.5 Chip/Pitch shots per round vs. 17.6 approach shots each round. The result of the analysis is always a combination of frequency and severity.

Let’s start with the frequency. The chart below displays the number of approach shots from the fairway as they relate to Mr. 17’s TOTAL approach shots (all shot of 50+ yards from Fairway-Tee, Rough or Sand). To be clear, shots from the fairway (and tee) represent 68 percent of ALL of Mr. 17’s approach shots. For perspective, I have included like numbers for the 2016 PGA Tour. Note the obvious spike in the 151-175-yard range. Just over one in every four of Mr. 17’s attempts fall in this range.

Appr. Art. 2

Severity: Not only does this particular distance own the most opportunities, but it is also the most costly. That is, Mr. 17 loses more strokes on average PER SHOT from this range than any other, a negative strokes gained of 0.43 per shot. Why? He only hits the green with 35 percent of his attempts AND makes an error* with 5 percent of his attempts.

*Approach error is a penalty result or a shot hit poorly enough to require a second approach from greater than 50 yards.

Appr. Art. 3I have a theory on why this particular range is so costly. I believe that this distance tends to represent the greatest distance from which MOST of us still hit traditional irons (7, 6 and 5 irons). Outside of 175 yards, we tend to go to hybrids, which are much more forgiving. These longer iron shots require the combination of club head speed and crisp contact in order to carry the distance needed AND hold the green. I personally have resorted to a 5 hybrid for the top end of this critical range.

Conclusions

If your game is like Mr. 17’s, I suggest:

  1. Devote some more range time to the 150-175 distances.
  2. Consider more forgiving irons or hybrids.
  3. Adjust your targets from these longer distances to the middle, even back-middle, of the greens.

For a complete Strokes Gained Analysis of your game, you can visit www.shotbyshot.com.

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In 1989, Peter Sanders founded Golf Research Associates, LP, creating what is now referred to as Strokes Gained Analysis. His goal was to design and market a new standard of statistically based performance analysis programs using proprietary computer models. A departure from “traditional stats,” the program provided analysis with answers, supported by comparative data. In 2006, the company’s website, ShotByShot.com, was launched. It provides interactive, Strokes Gained analysis for individual golfers and more than 150 instructors and coaches that use the program to build and monitor their player groups. Peter has written, or contributed to, more than 60 articles in major golf publications including Golf Digest, Golf Magazine and Golf for Women. From 2007 through 2013, Peter was an exclusive contributor and Professional Advisor to Golf Digest and GolfDigest.com. Peter also works with PGA Tour players and their coaches to interpret the often confusing ShotLink data. Zach Johnson has been a client for nearly five years. More recently, Peter has teamed up with Smylie Kaufman’s swing coach, Tony Ruggiero, to help guide Smylie’s fast-rising career.

25 Comments

25 Comments

  1. Dave R

    May 3, 2017 at 11:54 pm

    Mr. Nicklaus hello where are you. Unbelievable ! Best ever golfer what happened.

  2. Dave

    May 1, 2017 at 2:27 pm

    Leave it golf RX to screw up a link even. I wanted to read about why no one taught Mr. Nicklaus’s swing, and end up reading about some dude needing work on his approach.

    • indyvic

      May 3, 2017 at 2:47 am

      Nicklaus golf swing? ‘Asleep at the wheel?’

  3. Nigel Kent

    May 1, 2017 at 2:16 pm

    I thought this is supposed to be about Chamblee’s take on Nicklaus ???

  4. Shortside

    May 1, 2017 at 11:34 am

    I see realistic room for improvement from 100-150 yards. I am Mr. 17 and that is my window of opportunity. Or should I say lost opportunity. Being Mr. 17 that’s where most of my good tee shots leave me (white tees, where I belong). Most of my range time is devoted to it. Yet when I get on the course I seem to take a stupid pill. Pushed or pulled far too often. My personal analysis is pretty simple. I’m not finishing at my target. Hoping this is the year a little more focus on that gets me to an 8 GIR average. In theory that should get me to Mr. 13-14.

  5. Matto

    Apr 29, 2017 at 6:48 am

    You’re darn tootn. I hit 80%+ of fairways. Getting off the tee is no stress for me. Get a wedge in my hand and I’ll generally hit the green most times under 100. Around the green? No problem….I love the short game. Putting? Not too bad. But I’m an 11hc and that’s ALL thanks to approach shots. Hitting mid to long irons off grass? I basically have NO idea what I’m doing. 30 years of playing and it’s always held me back.

    • IHateLoveGolf

      May 1, 2017 at 1:10 pm

      I’m your exact opposite with weakness. I lose a handful of balls every round from the tee and shoot in the 80s. Irons? Easy peasy. If I (only had a brain) could tee off, I’d be single-digit and maybe even mid single digit.

  6. H

    Apr 29, 2017 at 3:37 am

    I can’t get off the tee, so no, my approach shots don’t hold me back as it takes me about 3 shots to get anywhere near the green, but my short game is deadly

  7. Greg

    Apr 28, 2017 at 9:39 am

    I believe more often then not Mr 17 tees it too far back. Move up one tee box and lower the amount of 150+ yard shots by 4 or 5 and he or she will improve. Also without slowing down the pace of play. Tee it forward.

  8. Parker0065

    Apr 28, 2017 at 9:31 am

    Great article!
    I guess I’ve been preaching this idea for +30 years when people ask how to consistently break 80(or whatever scoring level). I played a lot of golf as a junior, many rounds just me, my bag and the summer sun. By age 13 I was getting so close to breaking 80 and at the end of that season I did a full blown analysis of my game and stats(Crazy, I know, but all I ever thought or cared about as a kid was golf, until girls came along that is), and my conclusion was I just wasn’t hitting enough greens and had to get better with my iron approaches.
    Going into the following season I set out on a mission to do just that and over the first few months I did start to hit more greens. For me it was a combination of taking more conservative lines to the greens, as well as simply continuing to improve my golf swing.
    To me it’s all relative. Just saying “your going to hit more greens” is one thing but without actually “improving your golf swing” makes the idea of hitting more greens just irrelevant words!

    I’ll also add that for me hitting more greens to lower my scores into a competitive zone was a two step process. After my GIR stats started to improve that season many years ago as a junior I quickly realized I had to put in more time with “Lag Putting”. Holes in the past where I may have missed the green I was now faced with 30-40 foot lag putts. Which with a little practice become much easier to two putt versus trying to get up and down from all over the place. Plus it actually takes pressure off your short game(until you start shooting around or under par anyways) because you don’t have to rely on getting up and down 5-7 times a round to break 80.

    By August of that season(1979) I was consistently breaking 80 and never looked back!

  9. Peter Sanders

    Apr 28, 2017 at 8:58 am

    Steve,
    An 8 handicap from the Sand means that the player’s average putting distances following successful sand shots AND his % Errors (shots that do not find the green) match the profile of the average 8 handicap. It is based on Strokes Gained from the sand. While “Saves” are nice and important, they have nothing to do with the assessment of a player’s sand performance – Saves are two facets: Sand and Putting.

  10. WILLIAM MARTELLA

    Apr 28, 2017 at 8:13 am

    Pete, can you do a similar analysis for people in the 10-14 range looking to get to single digits? I’d like to see if this scoring zone shifts at all.

    • Dave

      Apr 28, 2017 at 8:29 am

      I would imagine the chipping and putting would be the focal point then.

    • Peter Sanders

      Apr 28, 2017 at 9:02 am

      Could be a good idea for another article. I will think about it. Thanks!

  11. Simms

    Apr 27, 2017 at 11:52 pm

    I find this idea completely correct….even pros end up missing cuts/or finishing low in the money because of this, and they are hitting 8,9 irons from 170. John Daly would be a prime example I would think..

  12. mikee

    Apr 27, 2017 at 8:09 pm

    My instructor wants to see only two stats on my scorecard …..GIR and distance from the pin after the approach shot. She wants 12 to 14 GIR (I am a 7 hcp) and as close as possible to the pin. Tiger dominated for years because he was first in both those stats.

    • Peter Sanders

      Apr 28, 2017 at 9:12 am

      mikee,
      12 – 14 GIR’s? A lofty goal! PGA Tour average is 12.5 and the Winner’s on Tour average 13. The average 7 handicap hits 8 GIR’s. Where are you now?

      • mikee

        Apr 28, 2017 at 9:26 am

        I’m at 10 GIR……but I putt terribly ….about 33 to 35 per round

  13. Matt

    Apr 27, 2017 at 4:53 pm

    Yep, fairway approach shots and pitching / chipping

  14. Mark

    Apr 27, 2017 at 4:20 pm

    Good article. I am struggling at the moment and hitting greens, never mind hitting it close is my weak area. The range beckons…

  15. Chris Bunting

    Apr 27, 2017 at 3:09 pm

    Maybe Mr.17 needs to move up a T box? I do not consider 175 yards an approach shot if I got off the T properly. Its more of a try to limit the damage shot since I barfed all over the T shot and now need a good recovery or else a big number looms.

    I do practice my approach shots quite a bit, but thats with a 7i-54* wedge.

    • george

      Apr 27, 2017 at 3:58 pm

      If you’re playing in the States you have the possibility to ease out and move up a tee, sure. But if you’re playing anywhere else in the world, the men’s tees are the men’s tees regardless of your driving distance or your hcp. The mens tees are rated and your hcp is based on the men’s tees. So you play the men’s tees and not some kind of colour code. And that, my friend, means that real golfers in the UK, anywhere else in Europe or Africa play from 6300-6700yds. If your Par4s are 410+yds you better learn how to hit those approaches from 170 or pitch it close with your 3rd.

    • WILLIAM MARTELLA

      Apr 28, 2017 at 8:10 am

      Also doesn’t take in to account the intentional play from the tee. 175 yards in is a 7 iron for me. Normally I would say I am closer, but my expectation is to be on or near the green with 6 iron or shorter, aka 185 and in.

      Moving up or back should be decided by your ability to hit for distance/accuracy

  16. Steve

    Apr 27, 2017 at 11:43 am

    I wonder what an 8 handicap out of the sand really means. My guess is gets out of the sand most of the time, but rarely gets a sandie.

  17. golfraven

    Apr 27, 2017 at 11:10 am

    Nice breakdown and analysis. Good to know the trouble zone (150-175 – 7,6,5 iron) so I will look out what mine is and work on it. Are my approaches holding my game back? Heck yeah – last round was 80% FIR but only 33% GIR – sucker.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans betting preview

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The PGA TOUR heads to New Orleans to play the 2023 Zurich Classic of New Orleans. In a welcome change from the usual stroke play, the Zurich Classic is a team event. On Thursday and Saturday, the teams play best ball, and on Friday and Sunday the teams play alternate shot.

TPC Louisiana is a par 72 that measures 7,425 yards. The course features some short par 4s and plenty of water and bunkers, which makes for a lot of exciting risk/reward scenarios for competitors. Pete Dye designed the course in 2004 specifically for the Zurich Classic, although the event didn’t make its debut until 2007 because of Hurricane Katrina.

Coming off of the Masters and a signature event in consecutive weeks, the field this week is a step down, and understandably so. Many of the world’s top players will be using this time to rest after a busy stretch.

However, there are some interesting teams this season with some stars making surprise appearances in the team event. Some notable teams include Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry, Collin Morikawa and Kurt Kitayama, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala as well as a few Canadian teams, Nick Taylor and Adam Hadwin and Taylor Pendrith and Corey Conners.

Past Winners at TPC Louisiana

  • 2023: Riley/Hardy (-30)
  • 2022: Cantlay/Schauffele (-29)
  • 2021: Leishman/Smith (-20)
  • 2019: Palmer/Rahm (-26)
  • 2018: Horschel/Piercy (-22)
  • 2017: Blixt/Smith (-27)

2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans Picks

Tom Hoge/Maverick McNealy +2500 (DraftKings)

Tom Hoge is coming off of a solid T18 finish at the RBC Heritage and finished T13 at last year’s Zurich Classic alongside Harris English.

This season, Hoge is having one of his best years on Tour in terms of Strokes Gained: Approach. In his last 24 rounds, the only player to top him on the category is Scottie Scheffler. Hoge has been solid on Pete Dye designs, ranking 28th in the field over his past 36 rounds.

McNealy is also having a solid season. He’s finished T6 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and T9 at the PLAYERS Championship. He recently started working with world renowned swing coach, Butch Harmon, and its seemingly paid dividends in 2024.

Keith Mitchell/Joel Dahmen +4000 (DraftKings)

Keith Mitchell is having a fantastic season, finishing in the top-20 of five of his past seven starts on Tour. Most recently, Mitchell finished T14 at the Valero Texas Open and gained a whopping 6.0 strokes off the tee. He finished 6th at last year’s Zurich Classic.

Joel Dahmen is having a resurgent year and has been dialed in with his irons. He also has a T11 finish at the PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass which is another Pete Dye track. With Mitchell’s length and Dahmen’s ability to put it close with his short irons, the Mitchell/Dahmen combination will be dangerous this week.

Taylor Moore/Matt NeSmith +6500 (DraftKings)

Taylor Moore has quickly developed into one of the more consistent players on Tour. He’s finished in the top-20 in three of his past four starts, including a very impressive showing at The Masters, finishing T20. He’s also finished T4 at this event in consecutive seasons alongside Matt NeSmith.

NeSmith isn’t having a great 2024, but has seemed to elevate his game in this format. He finished T26 at Pete Dye’s TPC Sawgrass, which gives the 30-year-old something to build off of. NeSmith is also a great putter on Bermudagrass, which could help elevate Moore’s ball striking prowess.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 LIV Adelaide betting preview: Cam Smith ready for big week down under

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After having four of the top twelve players on the leaderboard at The Masters, LIV Golf is set for their fifth event of the season: LIV Adelaide. 

For both LIV fans and golf fans in Australia, LIV Adelaide is one of the most anticipated events of the year. With 35,000 people expected to attend each day of the tournament, the Grange Golf Club will be crawling with fans who are passionate about the sport of golf. The 12th hole, better known as “the watering hole”, is sure to have the rowdiest of the fans cheering after a long day of drinking some Leishman Lager.  

The Grange Golf Club is a par-72 that measures 6,946 yards. The course features minimal resistance, as golfers went extremely low last season. In 2023, Talor Gooch shot consecutive rounds of 62 on Thursday and Friday, giving himself a gigantic cushion heading into championship Sunday. Things got tight for a while, but in the end, the Oklahoma State product was able to hold off The Crushers’ Anirban Lahiri for a three-shot victory. 

The Four Aces won the team competition with the Range Goats finishing second. 

*All Images Courtesy of LIV Golf*

Past Winners at LIV Adelaide

  • 2023: Talor Gooch (-19)

Stat Leaders Through LIV Miami

Green in Regulation

  1. Richard Bland
  2. Jon Rahm
  3. Paul Casey

Fairways Hit

  1. Abraham Ancer
  2. Graeme McDowell
  3. Henrik Stenson

Driving Distance

  1. Bryson DeChambeau
  2. Joaquin Niemann
  3. Dean Burmester

Putting

  1. Cameron Smith
  2. Louis Oosthuizen
  3. Matt Jones

2024 LIV Adelaide Picks

Cameron Smith +1400 (DraftKings)

When I pulled up the odds for LIV Adelaide, I was more than a little surprised to see multiple golfers listed ahead of Cameron Smith on the betting board. A few starts ago, Cam finished runner-up at LIV Hong Kong, which is a golf course that absolutely suits his eye. Augusta National in another course that Smith could roll out of bed and finish in the top-ten at, and he did so two weeks ago at The Masters, finishing T6.

At Augusta, he gained strokes on the field on approach, off the tee (slightly), and of course, around the green and putting. Smith able to get in the mix at a major championship despite coming into the week feeling under the weather tells me that his game is once again rounding into form.

The Grange Golf Club is another course that undoubtedly suits the Australian. Smith is obviously incredibly comfortable playing in front of the Aussie faithful and has won three Australian PGA Championship’s. The course is very short and will allow Smith to play conservative off the tee, mitigating his most glaring weakness. With birdies available all over the golf course, there’s a chance the event turns into a putting contest, and there’s no one on the planet I’d rather have in one of those than Cam Smith.

Louis Oosthuizen +2200 (DraftKings)

Louis Oosthuizen has simply been one of the best players on LIV in the 2024 seas0n. The South African has finished in the top-10 on the LIV leaderboard in three of his five starts, with his best coming in Jeddah, where he finished T2. Perhaps more impressively, Oosthuizen finished T7 at LIV Miami, which took place at Doral’s “Blue Monster”, an absolutely massive golf course. Given that Louis is on the shorter side in terms of distance off the tee, his ability to play well in Miami shows how dialed he is with the irons this season.

In addition to the LIV finishes, Oosthuizen won back-to-back starts on the DP World Tour in December at the Alfred Dunhill Championship and the Mauritus Open. He also finished runner-up at the end of February in the International Series Oman. The 41-year-old has been one of the most consistent performers of 2024, regardless of tour.

For the season, Louis ranks 4th on LIV in birdies made, T9 in fairways hit and first in putting. He ranks 32nd in driving distance, but that won’t be an issue at this short course. Last season, he finished T11 at the event, but was in decent position going into the final round but fell back after shooting 70 while the rest of the field went low. This season, Oosthuizen comes into the event in peak form, and the course should be a perfect fit for his smooth swing and hot putter this week.

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Opinion & Analysis

The Wedge Guy: What really makes a wedge work? Part 1

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Of all the clubs in our bags, wedges are almost always the simplest in construction and, therefore, the easiest to analyze what might make one work differently from another if you know what to look for.

Wedges are a lot less mysterious than drivers, of course, as the major brands are working with a lot of “pixie dust” inside these modern marvels. That’s carrying over more to irons now, with so many new models featuring internal multi-material technologies, and almost all of them having a “badge” or insert in the back to allow more complex graphics while hiding the actual distribution of mass.

But when it comes to wedges, most on the market today are still single pieces of molded steel, either cast or forged into that shape. So, if you look closely at where the mass is distributed, it’s pretty clear how that wedge is going to perform.

To start, because of their wider soles, the majority of the mass of almost any wedge is along the bottom third of the clubhead. So, the best wedge shots are always those hit between the 2nd and 5th grooves so that more mass is directly behind that impact. Elite tour professionals practice incessantly to learn to do that consistently, wearing out a spot about the size of a penny right there. If impact moves higher than that, the face is dramatically thinner, so smash factor is compromised significantly, which reduces the overall distance the ball will fly.

Every one of us, tour players included, knows that maddening shot that we feel a bit high on the face and it doesn’t go anywhere, it’s not your fault.

If your wedges show a wear pattern the size of a silver dollar, and centered above the 3rd or 4th groove, you are not getting anywhere near the same performance from shot to shot. Robot testing proves impact even two to three grooves higher in the face can cause distance loss of up to 35 to 55 feet with modern ‘tour design’ wedges.

In addition, as impact moves above the center of mass, the golf club principle of gear effect causes the ball to fly higher with less spin. Think of modern drivers for a minute. The “holy grail” of driving is high launch and low spin, and the driver engineers are pulling out all stops to get the mass as low in the clubhead as possible to optimize this combination.

Where is all the mass in your wedges? Low. So, disregarding the higher lofts, wedges “want” to launch the ball high with low spin – exactly the opposite of what good wedge play requires penetrating ball flight with high spin.

While almost all major brand wedges have begun putting a tiny bit more thickness in the top portion of the clubhead, conventional and modern ‘tour design’ wedges perform pretty much like they always have. Elite players learn to hit those crisp, spinny penetrating wedge shots by spending lots of practice time learning to consistently make contact low in the face.

So, what about grooves and face texture?

Grooves on any club can only do so much, and no one has any material advantage here. The USGA tightly defines what we manufacturers can do with grooves and face texture, and modern manufacturing techniques allow all of us to push those limits ever closer. And we all do. End of story.

Then there’s the topic of bounce and grinds, the most complex and confusing part of the wedge formula. Many top brands offer a complex array of sole configurations, all of them admittedly specialized to a particular kind of lie or turf conditions, and/or a particular divot pattern.

But if you don’t play the same turf all the time, and make the same size divot on every swing, how would you ever figure this out?

The only way is to take any wedge you are considering and play it a few rounds, hitting all the shots you face and observing the results. There’s simply no other way.

So, hopefully this will inspire a lively conversation in our comments section, and I’ll chime in to answer any questions you might have.

And next week, I’ll dive into the rest of the wedge formula. Yes, shafts, grips and specifications are essential, too.

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