Opinion & Analysis
The USGA-Approved Alternative To Golf’s Walk of Shame
You just hit a tee shot to a blind landing zone. You smashed it, right on the screws. As the ball disappeared behind the hill, it was right on your target line. Great shot, you. You make your way over the hill but your ball is nowhere to be found. You march up and down the fairway, zig-zagging between the left and right rough. After five minutes, the infuriating reality is no longer deniable. It’s lost.
It could have been a bad kick, picked up by a group on an adjacent hole, plugged, or maybe you were lying to yourself about how great your shot was in the first place.
Now what?
If you’re a rule-follower, you march back to the tee-box, add one, and re-load. Hopefully your partner will watch from the fairway, where you’ll be hitting your fourth shot assuming you find it this time. Don’t worry about the group shooting daggers at you from the tee box as you start the hole over. The “While We’re Young” campaign encouraging golfers to pick up the pace? Don’t worry about that, either.
In theory, the stroke-and-distance penalty for a lost or out-of-bounds ball is sensible. In practice, however, it’s ludicrous. During a casual round, most players aren’t willing to make the aforementioned march back to the tee. If you fall into that category, Andrew Elaimy, assistant pro at TPC Boston, offers his suggestion for an appropriate alternative to the stroke and distance dilemma.
“During everyday play, or when playing with members, I suggest playing it as a hazard with your best guess on where you think it entered,” he says. “At the clubs I’ve worked at it, if someone walked back to the tee and set the whole day back, it would be a big issue and they would definitely hear about it from someone in the professional staff.”
The proposed new rules of golf don’t provide a solution for golf’s “walk of shame.” The USGA did, however, acknowledge its shortcoming in this area, echoing Elaimy’s suggestion by offering an “Appropriate Penalty Under Any Alternate Procedure.” This, you know, ensures everybody can break the rules equally. After all, it’s a gentlemen’s game.
The entire explanation for not introducing a solution is worth a read, but the nuts and bolts of the suggested alternative are: use your best judgement on where to drop, then take your fourth shot from there. The section of the USGA’s explanation regarding an agreeable alternative states:
It was recognized that, when groups of golfers agree among themselves to use an alternative to stroke and distance, the player usually drops a ball somewhere around where the player or the group thinks the ball was lost or went out of bounds and takes a penalty of one stroke.
In reviewing the various alternatives to stroke and distance, we discussed whether there should be a penalty of one stroke or two strokes (noting that, at one point in history, the Rules applied a three-stroke penalty in stroke play, and at other times the penalty was distance-only with no added penalty stroke). While no definitive conclusions were reached, it was generally felt that any option that removed the need to return to where the previous stroke was made should carry a penalty of two strokes. This was based on the view that any alternative should seek to replicate the likely outcome of the stroke-and-distance procedure; in effect, the second penalty stroke would substitute for not requiring the player to return to make another stroke from where the previous stroke was made.
By way of example, a player who loses his or her tee shot and plays another ball from the tee into the fairway will be playing the fourth stroke from the fairway. In view of this, any alternative relief option that allows the player to proceed without returning to the tee should have the player playing the fourth stroke, which means a two-stroke penalty needs to be imposed.
Commendably, the USGA uses sound logic in both assuming that most players won’t follow this ridiculous rule, and in how to best break the rule without cheating its spirit. Nicely done.
This explanation should suffice as permission to replace the trek back to the tee box with a reasonable drop and two-stroke penalty the next time you hit that perfect tee shot that somehow vanishes off the golf course. Whether you like the rule as it is, agree with this solution, or have an alternative of your own, the USGA would like to hear your feedback and creative thoughts.
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19th Hole
Vincenzi’s 2024 RBC Heritage betting preview: Patrick Cantlay ready to get back inside winner’s circle
Just a two-hour drive from Augusta National, the PGA TOUR heads to Harbour Town Golf Links in Hilton Head Island, S.C. Hilton Head Island is a golfer’s paradise and Harbour Town is one of the most beautiful and scenic courses on the PGA TOUR.
Harbour Town Golf Links is a par-71 that measures 7,121 yards and features Bermuda grass greens. A Pete Dye design, the course is heavily tree lined and features small greens and many dog legs, protecting it from “bomb-and-gauge” type golfers.
The field is loaded this week with 69 golfers with no cut. Last year was quite possibly the best field in RBC Heritage history and the event this week is yet another designated event, meaning there is a $20 million prize pool.
Most of the big names on the PGA Tour will be in attendance this week with the exceptions of Hideki Matsuyama and Viktor Hovland. Additionally, Webb Simpson, Shane Lowry, Gary Woodland and Kevin Kisner have been granted sponsors exemptions.
Past Winners at Harbour Town
- 2023: Matt Fitzpatrick (-17)
- 2022: Jordan Spieth (-13)
- 2021: Stewart Cink (-19)
- 2020: Webb Simpson (-22)
- 2019: CT Pan (-12)
- 2018: Sotoshi Kodaira (-12)
- 2017: Wesley Bryan (-13)
- 2016: Branden Grace (-9)
- 2015: Jim Furyk (-18)
In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value).
Key Stats For Harbour Town
Let’s take a look at key metrics for Harbour Town Golf Links to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their past 24 rounds.
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Approach is exceedingly important this week. The greens at Harbour Town are about half the size of PGA TOUR average and feature the second-smallest greens on the tour. Typical of a Pete Dye design, golfers will pay the price for missed greens.
Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds
- Scottie Scheffler (+1.27)
- Tom Hoge (+1.27)
- Corey Conners (+1.16)
- Austin Eckroat (+0.95)
- Cameron Young (+0.93)
Good Drive %
The fairways at Harbour Town are tree lined and feature many dog legs. Bombers tend to struggle at the course because it forces layups and doesn’t allow long drivers to overpower it. Accuracy is far more important than power.
Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds
- Brice Garnett (88.8%)
- Shane Lowry (+87.2%)
- Akshay Bhatia (+86.0%)
- Si Woo Kim (+85.8%)
- Sepp Straka (+85.1%)
Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye Designs
Pete Dye specialists tend to play very well at Harbour Town. Si Woo Kim, Matt Kuchar, Jim Furyk and Webb Simpson are all Pete Dye specialists who have had great success here. It is likely we see some more specialists near the top of the leaderboard this week.
SG: TOT Pete Dye per round over past 36 rounds:
- Xander Schauffele (+2.27)
- Scottie Scheffler (+2.24)
- Ludvig Aberg (+2.11)
- Brian Harman (+1.89)
- Sungjae Im (+1.58)
4. Strokes Gained: Short Game (Bermuda)
Strokes Gained: Short Game factors in both around the green and putting. With many green-side bunkers and tricky green complexes, both statistics will be important. Past winners — such as Jim Furyk, Wes Bryan and Webb Simpson — highlight how crucial the short game skill set is around Harbour Town.
SG: SG Over Past 24 Rounds
- Jordan Spieth (+1.11)
- Taylor Moore (+1.02)
- Wyndham Clark (+0.98)
- Mackenzie Hughes (+0.86)
- Andrew Putnam (+0.83)
5. Greens in Regulation %
The recipe for success at Harbour Town Golf Links is hitting fairways and greens. Missing either will prove to be consequential — golfers must be in total control of the ball to win.
Greens in Regulation % over past 24 rounds:
- Brice Garnett (+75.0%)
- Scottie Scheffler (+69.9%)
- Corey Conners (+69.0%)
- Shane Lowry (+68.3%)
- Patrick Rodgers (+67.6%)
6. Course History
Harbour Town is a course where players who have strong past results at the course always tend to pop up.
Course History over past 24 rounds:
- Patrick Cantlay (+2.34)
- Cam Davis (+2.05)
- J.T. Poston (+1.69)
- Justin Rose (+1.68)
- Tommy Fleetwood (+1.59)
The RBC Heritage Model Rankings
Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (24%), Good Drives (20%), SG: SG (14%), SG: Pete Dye (14%), GIR (14%), and Course History (14%)
- Shane Lowry
- Russell Henley
- Scottie Scheffler
- Xander Schauffele
- Corey Conners
- Wyndham Clark
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout
- Matt Fitzpatrick
- Cameron Young
- Ludvig Aberg
2024 RBC Heritage Picks
Patrick Cantlay +2000 (FanDuel)
With the exception of Scottie Scheffler, the PGA Tour has yet to have any of their star players show peak form during the 2024 season. Last week, Patrick Cantlay, who I believe is a top-5 players on the PGA Tour, took one step closer to regaining the form that’s helped him win eight events on Tour since 2017.
Cantlay limped into the Masters in poor form, but figured it out at Augusta National, finishing in a tie for 20th and ranking 17th for the week in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. The former FedEx Cup champion will now head to one of his favorite golf courses in Harbour Town, where he’s had immaculate results over the years. In his six trips to the course, he’s only finished worse than 7th one time. The other finishes include three third places (2017, 2019, 2023) and one runner-up finish (2022). In his past 36 rounds at Harbour Town, Cantlay ranks 1st in Strokes Gained: Total per round at the course by a wide margin (+2.36).
Cantlay is winless since the 2022 BMW Championship, which is far too long for a player of his caliber. With signs pointing to the 32-year-old returning to form, a “signature event” at Harbour Town is just what he needs to get back on the winning track.
Tommy Fleetwood +3000 (FanDuel)
I truly believe Tommy Fleetwood will figure out a way to win on American soil in 2024. It’s certainly been a bugaboo for him throughout his career, but he is simply too talented to go another season without winning a PGA Tour event.
At last week’s Masters Tournament, Fleetwood made a Sunday charge and ended up finishing T3 in the event, which was his best ever finish at The Masters. For the week, the Englishman ranked 8th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, 10th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking and 16th in Strokes Gained: Putting.
Harbour Town is a perfect layout for Fleetwood, and he’s had relative success at this Pete Dye design in the past. In his four trips to the course, he’s finished inside of the top 25 three times, with his best finish, T10, coming in 2022. The course is pretty short and can’t be overpowered, which gives an advantage to more accurate players such as Fleetwood. Tommy ranks 8th in the field in Good Drive % and should be able to plot his way along this golf course.
The win is coming for Tommy lad. I believe there’s a chance this treasure of a golf course may be the perfect one for him to finally break through on Tour.
Cameron Young +3300 (FanDuel)
Cameron Young had a solid Masters Tournament last week, which is exactly what I’m looking for in players who I anticipate playing well this week at the RBC Heritage. He finished in a tie for 9th, but never felt the pressure of contending in the event. For the week, Young ranked 6th in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking.
Despite being one of the longest players off the tee on the PGA Tour, Young has actually played some really good golf on shorter tracks. He finished T3 at Harbour Town in 2023 and ranks 20th in the field in Good Drive% and 16th in Greens in Regulation in his past 24 rounds. He also has strong finishes at other shorter courses that can take driver out of a players hand such as Copperhead and PGA National.
Young is simply one of the best players on the PGA Tour in 2024, and I strongly believe has what it takes to win a PGA Tour event in the very near future.
Corey Conners +5500 (FanDuel)
Corey Conners has had a disappointing year thus far on the PGA Tour, but absolutely loves Harbour Town.
At last week’s Masters Tournament, the Canadian finished T30 but ranked 20th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach. In his past 24 rounds, Conners ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, 3rd in Greens in Regulation % and 24th in Good Drive %.
In Conners’ last four trips to Harbour Town, his worst finish was T31, last season. He finished T4 in 2021, T12 in 2022 and ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Total at the course over his past 36 rounds.
Conners hasn’t been contending, but his recent finishes have been encouraging as he has finished in the top-25 in each of his past three starts prior to The Masters, including an impressive T13 at The PLAYERS. His recent improvement in ball striking as well as his suitability for Harbour Town makes Conners a high upside bet this week.
Shane Lowry (+7500) (FanDuel)
When these odds were posted after Lowry was announced in the field, I have to admit I was pretty stunned. Despite not offering much win equity on the PGA Tour over the last handful of years, Shane Lowry is still a top caliber player who has the ability to rise to the top of a signature event.
Lowry struggled to score at The Masters last week, but he actually hit the ball really well. The Irishman ranked 1st for Strokes Gained: Approach on the week and 7th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. As usual, it was the putter that let him down, as he ranked 60th in the field in Strokes Gained: Putting.
Harbour Town is most definitely one of Lowry’s favorite courses on the PGA Tour. In his six starts there, he’s finished in the top 10 three times, including third twice. Lowry is sensational at Pete Dye designs and ranks 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in his past 36 rounds on Dye tracks.
Lowry is perfect for Harbour Town. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 5th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 2nd in Good Drive% and 5th in Green in Regulation %. If he figures it out on the greens, Shane could have his first win in America since 2015.
Lucas Glover +12000 (FanDuel)
This is one of my weekly “bet the number” plays as I strongly believe the odds are just too long for a player of Glover’s caliber. The odds have been too long on Glover for a few weeks now, but this is the first event that I can get behind the veteran being able to actually contend at.
Glover is quietly playing good golf and returning to the form he had after the understandable regression after his two massive victories at the end of 2023. He finished T20 at The Masters, which was his best ever finish at Augusta National. For the week, Lucas ranked 18th for Strokes Gained: Approach and 20th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking.
Over his past 24 rounds, Glover ranks 9th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 13th in Good Drive %. Harbour Town is a short course that the 44-year-old will be able to keep up with the top players on Tour off the tee. He’s played the course more than 20 times, with mixed results. His best finishes at Harbour Town include a T7 in 2008, but recently has a finish of T21 in 2020.
Glover has proven he can contend with the stars of the Tour on any given week, and this number is flat out disrespectful.
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19th Hole
Vincenzi: The 6 biggest takeaways from the 2024 Masters
The 2024 Masters offered up plenty of excitement throughout the week with Scottie Scheffler delivering when it mattered to live up to his pre-tournament favorite tag. With the year’s opening major now in the books, here are my six biggest takeaways from the 2024 Masters.
Scheffler In a League of His Own
In the most impressive way possible, Scottie Scheffler won the Masters without having his absolute best stuff. For the week, Scottie ranked 19th in Strokes Gained: Approach, which is a category the number player in the world typically dusts the rest of the field in. After a strong approach day on Thursday, the 27-year-old lost strokes to the field on approach on Friday and Saturday, before gaining on Sunday. The iron performance was more than solid, but it was an all-around game that helped Scheffler get it done around Augusta National.
For a year or more, the narrative around Scheffler has been, “With his ball striking, if he can just putt to field average, he’ll be unbeatable.” At Augusta, his ball striking came back down to earth, but his touch around the greens and ability to manage the golf course demonstrated why he is the best player on the planet right now. For the week, Scheffler ranked 1st in the field in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and 24th in Strokes Gained: Putting.
For the time being, there is a major gap between Scottie Scheffler and the second-best player in the world, whoever that may be.
The Future is Now
Ludvig Aberg went into his first back-nine at the Masters with a legitimate shot to win the tournament. When he teed it up on the treacherous 11th hole, he was one behind Scottie Scheffler, who had just stuck one to a few feet on the 9th. By the time he approached his tee shot, which was perfectly striped down the left side of the fairway, he was two behind. Unfortunately, the 24-year-old got too aggressive with his approach at the 11th and found the water, making double bogey. Ludvig rebounded nicely and finished the event in solo second place.
With the Masters now in the rearview, it’s never been more evident that Ludvig Aberg is no longer an “up-and-comer” — he has arrived. The Swede has been an integral part of a winning European Ryder Cup team and has now contended at Augusta National. With a calm demeanor, a picture-perfect swing, and a build and stature that appears as if it was built in a lab, Ludvig Aberg is already amongst the world’s best. I’d be extremely surprised if he wasn’t in the mix at next month’s PGA Championship at Valhalla.
Nostalgia Wins
I try to avoid as many cliches as possible, but there’s something about the Masters that brings out the sentimentality in me. Tiger Woods strategically making his way around Augusta National without all of the physical tools that made him arguably the most dominant athlete in the history of sports will always be riveting, regardless of what score he shoots. Woods made it interesting until a tough stretch of holes on Saturday, but he ultimately wore down, shooting 16 over for the week in difficult conditions. It’s remarkable that the 15-time major champion was able to put together a few solid rounds of golf despite barely playing any competitive golf in 2024. As long as Woods tees it up at Augusta, we will all continue to be mesmerized by it.
Verne Lundquist’s 40th and final Masters Tournament was also a must-watch aspect of the event. The iconic voice of Lundquist and his calls throughout the years still give me chills each time I hear them. Verne is an icon of the game and will be missed in future renditions of the Masters.
The Masters also brings another element that is unique to the tournament. Former champions turn back the clock to battle with the golf course again which creates some amazing stories. There are a few that stick out this year and were an absolute pleasure to witness. 61-year-old Vijay Singh made the cut for the first time since 2018 and shot a pretty incredible even-par, 72 on Sunday. 58-year-old José María Olazábal made the cut as well, reminding us why fellow Spaniard Jon Rahm sought his valuable advice prior to his Masters victory in 2022.
Regardless of who wins, the Masters always delivers.
Bryson Moves the Needle
Plenty will disagree with me on this point, but outside of Tiger Woods, and potentially Rory McIlroy and Jordan Spieth, no one moves the needle in golf as much as Bryson DeChambeau. The uniqueness in which Bryson approaches the game has always been fascinating, and if he gets near the top of the leaderboard at any major championship, whether it’s to root for him or against him, people are interested.
It began on Monday with a pretty bizarre story of DeChambeau using 3D-printed irons that got just got cleared for use by the USGA when the week began. It once again felt like a storyline that would only be possible with a character as eccentric as Bryson. He then raced off to a first-round lead in tough conditions, reminding the world of what made him such a great golfer to begin with. He made some mistakes on the weekend, but still finished a career best T6 at The Masters.
Bryson is more than just quirky; he is a former U.S. Amateur Champion and U.S. Open who I believe will contend for more majors in the future. I will continue to root for DeChambeau, but I’m perfectly content with the fact that plenty will root against him, and I encourage those people to do so. That’s what makes it fun.
LIV Walks Away Empty-Handed
Last year, there were a multitude of questions about LIV players coming into the year’s first major. They had played very limited tournament golf, and critics of LIV questioned whether the 54-hole events were enough to sharpen the players enough to compete against the best in the world on the biggest stage.
The results were fascinating, with LIV players all over the leaderboard. Brooks Koepka held the 36- and 54-hole lead, with Phil Mickelson and Patrick Reed finishing T2 and T4, giving LIV three golfers in the top-4 of the leaderboard.
This season, with even more time removed and with some more massive additions to the roster, the intrigue surrounding LIV players at Augusta was once again palpable. While some players, including Bryson DeChambeau, exceeded expectations, I can’t help but walk away from the Masters feeling underwhelmed by the performance of the LIV players.
Brooks Koepka finished runner-up last season and is a certified major championship killer. The 5-time major champ was never involved and simply didn’t have it at Augusta. Dustin Johnson put together a putrid performance, shooting 13 over for his two rounds, making it fair to wonder if his days of contending at major championships are over as he rapidly approaches his 40th birthday.
Jon Rahm and Joaquin Niemann were both players who were amongst the favorites this week, but Rahm was faced with the daunting duties of defending champion and Niemann proved he was still not quite ready to master the quirks of Augusta National, bleeding strokes both around and on the greens.
To be fair, when all was said and done, LIV had four players in the top twelve at The Masters. Tyrrell Hatton stormed the leaderboard early on Sunday, finishing T9 and earning himself an invite back to Augusta next season. Cam Smith and Patrick Reed put together gritty performances, which isn’t too surprising considering the fact that they both absolutely love Augusta National, but neither ever felt a real threat to win. There’s no doubt the players on LIV are good, and that’s why some encouraging leaderboard positions aren’t enough. They needed to contend.
With no players part of the storyline on Sunday, I view the first major of the year as a disappointment for LIV. The players will head into next month’s PGA Championship at Valhalla with a lot to prove.
Rory’s Struggles Continues
Rory struggling at Augusta National is no surprise at this point. The four-time major champion has now had 10 attempts to complete the career grand slam and has never had a chance to win. His T2 in 2022 was deceiving, the Northern Irishman stormed the leaderboard on Sunday, but was never in contention, and never got within three shots of the winner, Scottie Scheffler.
I didn’t expect Rory to win, but I have to admit that this year felt a bit different. McIlroy played the week prior to the Masters, which he typically doesn’t do, and finished third at the Valero Texas Open. He gained 7.56 strokes on approach and 2.0 strokes off the tee, which told me that his visit with world-renowned swing coach, Butch Harmon, after the Players Championship paid dividends.
McIlroy also approached the media quite differently. He cut his pre-tournament press conference short after only 10 minutes and seemed to be laser-focused on just playing golf.
Despite the different approach to the Masters, the results were the same. McIlroy struggled over the course of the week, finishing T22 (+4) and never sniffed a decent weekend position on the leaderboard. It’s back to the drawing board for McIlroy, and I have doubts that he will ever figure it out at Augusta.
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19th Hole
Vincenzi: The 8 best prop bets for the 2024 Masters
We’ve finally reached The Masters and excitement is at an all-time high. The world of golf has been fractured for the better part of two years, but for a week at Augusta National, all of the outside noise will disappear. All of the best players in the world will be together seeking to make history.
In addition to betting on The Masters champion. This is one of the few weeks of the year where there are so many more markets to explore, with value to be had in plenty of different categories.
Throughout this article, I’ll discuss all of my favorite props and players for the 2024 Masters.
Placement Bets:
Tony Finau Top 5 +750 (DraftKings):
I badly wanted to include Tony Finau in my outright betting selections, but I simply ran out of room on my card. Additionally, it’s slightly difficult to see him hitting the putts necessary to win the Masters on back nine on Sunday. However, I do strongly believe he will play great golf this week at Augusta National.
In his past 24 rounds, Finau ranks 4th in Strokes Gained: Approach is always amongst the best drivers of the golf ball in the game. Back in 2019, Finau had a great chance to win The Masters. I expect him to be hanging around over the weekend once again in 2024.
Gary Woodland Top 20 +550 (DraftKings), Gary Woodland to make the cut -110 (DraftKings):
Last season, Gary Woodland had his best ever finish at The Masters in his eleven tries. The 39-year-old finished T14 and played incredibly steady across all four rounds.
In Woodland’s most recent start at the Texas Children’s Houston Open, he struck the ball incredibly well. He led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach (+8.8) and Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (+10.0).
Gary has been working with Butch Harmon and absolutely flushing the ball both in tournaments and during practice.
Woodland appears to be healthy once again and in a great place physically and mentally. If he can build off his impressive performance at Augusta last year, he can place inside the top ten in 2024.
Additionally, the make the cut number on Woodland seems generous considering the number of players who miss the cut will be relatively small this week. Woodland is striking it well enough to make the cut even if he’s hindered by a balky putter once again.
Thorbjorn Olesen Top 20 +400 (FanDuel):
The Thunder Bear, Thorbjorn Olesen, made his Masters debut in 2013 and finished an incredibly impressive T6 for the week. In the two additional starts he’s made at Augusta National since then, the Dane has continued to be incredibly solid, finishing T44 and T21.
This week, Olesen heads into the week playing some good golf. He gained 3.8 strokes on approach and 5.52 strokes around the green at last week’s Valero Texas Open on his way to a strong T14 finish. Back in January, he won the Ras Al Khaimah Championship on the DP World Tour.
Olesen has the skill set to be successful at Augusta and seems primed for a good performance this week.
Top Nationalities:
Sergio Garcia Top Spanish Player +280 (DraftKings):
I believe Sergio Garcia can get into contention this week with the way he’s striking the ball in addition to his good vibes with a refurbished version of the Scotty Cameron that he used at the 1999 PGA Championship at Medinah.
I am slightly concerned about the emotional letdown he may face after losing in a playoff at LIV Miami, but I believe a veteran and former Masters champion should be able to regroup and focus on an event far more meaningful.
This is essentially a tournament head-to-head with Jon Rahm at +280. While Rahm deserves to be respected this week, the history of the lack of success of defending champions at The Masters is difficult to ignore.
Joaquin Niemann Top South American Player -230 (FanDuel):
While I hate paying this much juice, I don’t see a world in which Joaquin Niemann isn’t the top South American this week at The Masters. Joaco comes in playing better golf than anyone in the world not named Scottie Scheffler and has a serious chance to win the green jacket.
He only needs to beat two players: Emiliano Grillo and Camilo Villegas.
Tournament Head-to-Heads:
Justin Thomas -110 over Collin Morikawa
JT isn’t having his best season but is playing a lot better than he is getting credit for at the moment. In the past three months, there are only six players on the PGA Tour who have averaged 1.7 Strokes Gained: Tee to Green or better. Justin Thomas (+1.7) is one of the six and is currently tied with Rory McIlroy (+1.7).
Morikawa, on the other hand, has been extremely poor with his irons, which is incredibly uncharacteristic for him. I can’t help but feel like something is completely off with the two-time major champion.
Tony Finau -110 over Wyndham Clark
I explained in the placement section why I’m so high on Tony Finau this week. With how well he’s striking the ball, it seems as if his floor is extremely high. I’m not sure if he can make the putts to win a green jacket but I believe he will be in the mix similarly to 2019 when Tiger Woods emerged from a crowded pack of contenders.
Clark is a debutant, and while some debutants have had success at The Masters, it certainly poses a challenge. I also don’t believe Augusta National suits Clark as well as some of the other major championship venues.
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Dill Pickelson
May 9, 2017 at 1:06 am
In Japan, even in many non-pro tournaments, this is a rule. They put two more tee markers out in the fairway and you drop it there, playing your fourth.
Onintwo
May 8, 2017 at 8:25 pm
Matt well said
Onintwo
May 8, 2017 at 8:17 pm
Well said and too funny. Thought they were for aesthetics, never considered them to being another “on course revenue stream”. Great comment.
Dave R
May 8, 2017 at 5:47 pm
That would be like summer rules . Some are some aren’t . Golf has rules just like every other sport follow them.
Ron
May 8, 2017 at 11:08 am
I see so many issues with this proposed alternative. But the current rule is still too penalizing. So a shot (that is otherwise dry and playable) but rolls into someone’s backyard marked with white stakes incurs stroke and distance. But if you jack a shot into the bottom of a pond, you get to drop from point of entry?
Best solution would be for courses to line every hole with stakes. No out of bounds. If a ball is lost you get two club lengths from the point of entry. And if it’s someone’s backyard or somewhere the course doesn’t want you attempting to hit from, mark it as a mandatory drop area.
Jam
May 8, 2017 at 10:26 am
I’ve never been a huge fan of lost ball or OB for that matter. You can smash a tee shot 3 bills just slightly off your intended line and either lose it or have it kick out of bounds, and somehow that is deemed a worse shot than if you swung and missed your tee shot all together.
Glenk69
May 8, 2017 at 9:47 am
How about courses putting in drop areas on each hole, near the back of the holes expected landing area. If someone loses a ball on that hole just go to the landing area.
BallBuster
May 8, 2017 at 9:24 am
Our league course has 9 OB holes all very much in play. 2 left and 7 right. A slicer’s nightmare. And the ground is hard enough that a kick could easily roll OB when one thought it should nestle. It got ridiculous when one plays a provisional and that definitely went OB. Now a 3rd needs to be hit. And how many people carry 3 different balls or markings in their pocket? More trips to the bag to rearm themselves. The 3rd shot is a guaranteed duff 90 degrees in the opposite direction of 1 and 2. So screw the USGA. Almost 20 years ago we enacted a hazard rule of 2 club lengths/1 stroke rule from where it crossed the line and play on. Often the lie isn’t great in terms of access forward, so it still was penal, but play sped up significantly, and people were happier (I think that’s a goal of playing as rule anal people often lose sight of). These scores are not for USGA handicapping purposes so wft does it really matter?!!
Lob Wedge
May 7, 2017 at 4:45 pm
It’s nice that the USGA has caught up with what the general golfing public has done for the past 40 years. I can’t recall the last time I saw anyone walk back to the tee during casual play. Do these guys play golf in the real world with real people or is it all 0HCP country clubbers? It’s like hearing the president being amazed at the cost of milk when he goes to the grocery store for the first time in 10 years.
Here’s a thought for the USGA. Let’s be progressive and think ahead instead of agreeing that what’s already done is OK. You guys are without a forward thinking clue. Ugh..
Iutodd
May 7, 2017 at 8:54 am
My friend and I had a ‘Tiger Woods Rule’: the idea being that Tiger Woods basically never ever loses a ball when he is playing because 900 people are watching and finding his ball for him.
So when he and I are playing a course and I hit one into a blind area or just an area with a few trees that is mostly open and we can’t find it…the idea that I’m supposed to follow the same “rules” as Tiger is just ridiculous to me. If there is no hazard, no OB and it’s just an area of rough with a few trees (in the midwest every course I’ve ever played on has any number of playable areas like this) then I should be able to find a ball that I hit into that area. Tiger would have found it – actually basically ANY professional would have found it – but we chose Tiger cause he was fairly wild off the tee.
But sometimes amateurs just can’t find their ball in an area where there isn’t any reason for them not to find it. The ball takes a weird hop off a tree, it went shorter or farther than I thought, some sort of hole in the ground swallowed it up – or it’s the first time I’ve played this course and I don’t know the distances/angles just yet. I’m supposed to take two penalty strokes in that situation and/or walk back to the tee? Just because I’m NOT Tiger Woods and don’t have all kinds of people and marshals watching? That’s ridiculous to me. What’s probably happened is that it’s under a tree or a rock and I would probably take an unplayable – which is just one stroke and drop within two club lengths.
The bottom line is that a professional golfer hits something like 6 out of 10 fairways. But some days they only hit 3. An amateur might be having a good day if they hit 3 and an all-time kind of day if they hit 6. There is a lot of searching for your golf ball is the point. I watch a LOT of golf and I honestly can’t recall a pro not being able to find his ball no matter where they hit it. Didn’t Sergio literally find his ball halfway up a tree? C’mon.
I understand it’s a fairly fine line between saying: “It should be here and I’m not taking a penalty” and using a Judge Smails foot wedge – but the line exists and there is a difference. I can act in good faith. If I’m not playing a tourney or keeping track of my handicap…
Mat
May 8, 2017 at 7:30 am
Amen. Damn leaves. The penalty is the $4.
PCR
May 8, 2017 at 9:41 am
It’s only $1.25 if you are playing a K-Sig. 😉
Onintwo
May 8, 2017 at 8:23 pm
Too true. Playing in a blind draw alternating shot tournament, I saw the blood drain from my partners face as I shillelaghed his shiny $5 Pro V into the netherworld.
Grizz01
May 8, 2017 at 10:45 am
Not only do the have people watching their ball. The have crowds that act as natural backstops. (we don’t have) The ball doesn’t roll further into trouble. And you know there are people in a big crowd that will ‘give’ them a good lie.
CGC
May 7, 2017 at 8:25 am
It’s not the rules that need to be fixed. Rules are not slowing down the our play on the weekends. It’s “the stupid”. We need a cure for stupid. It’s 2 people in a cart standing over 1 ball, taking 5 practice swings. Then getting in the cart and driving 40 feet across the fairway to the other ball, only to take 5 practice swings.
It’s bringing 1 wedge to the green, deciding its the wrong club, going for your other wedge, hitting the shot, then going back to the cart for your putter.
I’d rather play behind somebody shooting 90 with a 110 IQ, than somebody shooting 80 with an 90 IQ.
NONE of the foursome slowing you down are following the rules. They don’t even know the rules, and they will never ever know that they have been changed.
When you bring people out to learn golf. Don’t waste your breath teaching them the rules. Teach them to PLAY FAST. Teach them to be ready. Keep a 2nd ball in your pocket, continue your putts. STOP MARKING YOUR BALL when your lag put leaves you 1.5 feet left. Your lowering your chances of making it anyway.
Fix the stupid.
Steve S
May 8, 2017 at 12:14 pm
Ignorance can be cured(fixed). Stupid is forever.
Fredo
May 17, 2017 at 11:38 pm
Wow, I nominate you for our local swami, well done!
Mark hawkinson
May 7, 2017 at 7:31 am
Why is hitting a ball OB worse than hitting a ball in a pond? OB should be treated as a hazard with the stipulation that the player may not attempt to play out of it (someone’s back yard) A two stroke penalty is too severe. If the player had re-teed the ball it would be likely the second shot would be in a better position than two club lengths from OB.
Mat
May 8, 2017 at 7:28 am
Totally agree.
Some will say they want to make it worse, etc.
Sometimes, I think it would be better if we all played double-bogey pickup (Original Stableford) and if you have a penalty ball, well, double-bogey it is.
James
May 7, 2017 at 4:59 am
It doesn’t happen to professionals because they have spotters everywhere. Us amateurs are considerably worse (and not getting better according to the stats) and punished unfairly so why not treat it like a hazard and do away with the stroke and distance penalty in these circumstances? No more provisionals, a single simple rule for all circumstances and much faster play???
coolhandbirdman
May 7, 2017 at 2:07 am
you’ve never played where creeks and streams are common in the area have you. no reason to dam up mother nature to give you break. be a man and jump in after your round and fetch your lost balls.
Luke
May 7, 2017 at 12:41 am
If you are at the estimated spot. Then you should find your ball. If it’s not there then you have no idea where you hit it. Take a walk back and reload or dq. If your handing in a card and you took the liberty of thinking this is where it should have been then your a cheat!! Those who complain about the time should play nothing but stableford then you can just wipe a hole and move on and pick up after double.
coolhandbirdman
May 7, 2017 at 2:03 am
who are you handing your card into on a casual round of golf that is semi-competitive between the people you are playing with other than the garbage can after the winner of the 5 bucks? you’ve never hit a ball that you knew was in some overseeded thick rough, and couldn’t find it? take a chill pill luke and be more coolhand….ayyy.
Scott
May 8, 2017 at 9:18 am
Handing in a card? HAHAHAHAHA.
OB rule is just as stupid as the “You can not post a round if you played by yourself” rule. 99% of the people that I play with have no idea what score I posted for handicap purposes.
The proposed rule changes are a step in the right direction but they still have a ways to go. There is a big difference between cheating and basically playing by the intended rules.
Steve S
May 8, 2017 at 12:19 pm
I play at a LOT of different courses with people from all walks of life. Out of 100 people MAYBE 2 of them have an official USGA handicap and record their scores. Even some of the private courses I’ve played only 1 in 4 record their scores. Most of us don’t take the game that seriously but love to play….
Mat
May 7, 2017 at 12:30 am
I believe the worst part of the rule is that:
a) We know are rules are stupid
b) We suggest this rule for casual play
c) We don’t observe casual play as official
d) Casual play is not bifurcation; it’s just sanctioned cheating
These new rules are a start, but they do not go far enough… I’m against any bifurcation in equipment rules, but good gravy, either clean up the rules to match the initiatives for fast, fair play, or split tournament rules officially. This rule change is half-pregnant.
Mat
May 7, 2017 at 12:22 am
Frankly, I find even this rule stupid. If my ball is in the fairway under one of 10,000 leaves, another ball goes down in the closest estimated landing position. No penalty.
If everyone agrees it *should* be in the fairway, toss one over your shoulder where it should be. Two minutes looking maximum. If you’re near a hazard, you’re in the hazard.
This is the reverse of the “call-in” rule. If you lose a ball because no one is watching, how is it your fault? The loss of a golf ball within the “field of play” is a terrible penalty. When people say that the rules are to help a golfer, that’s nonsense.
Philip
May 6, 2017 at 7:34 pm
Just think … in a few decades they can just stay home and watch the tube while their robot goes out onto the course and plays on their behalf … in fact, why ever leave their homes .. then again why even exist in the first place …
Philip
May 6, 2017 at 7:31 pm
I have applied the drop + 2, hitting 4 off the tee whenever I turn out to be incorrect on where I thought my ball was (of course actually watching my ball land and taking note of a nearby tree or other object works wonders too). In a way I am hurting myself more than going back to the tee as I have assumed my second off the tee went to the same crappy place as my first. Then again – highly likely if my swing has sailed away for the day. Of course, I do not think the rule is ridiculous as one just has to hit a provisional which myself and most I play with do. Fact is, people do not want to be punished for a crappy shot … or having to hit off of hardpan … or having to make a 3-5 foot putt … or having to play a shot from the sand … or on a hilly lie …
alan
May 6, 2017 at 7:09 pm
yet we still have to play out of a divot in the fairway. get it together usga.
Mat
May 7, 2017 at 12:24 am
Exactly. 6″ / 150mm lift and place in non-green non-hazard is long, long overdue.
Jam
May 8, 2017 at 10:28 am
Somehow a ripped tee shot that kicks out of bounds is worse than a whiff.
George
May 6, 2017 at 3:51 pm
There’s a rule for the example that is mentioned. R27-2. If you can’t see your Ball from the tee, HIT A F$%#ING PROVISIONAL!!!
Jimmy D
May 6, 2017 at 8:25 pm
Kind of an ignorant comment…obviously you have never played a course where the tee shot is to a landing area that No One can see from the tee. I have played courses in CA, MA, NC, and NH where your suggestion would require all golfers that hit a reasonable tee shot to hit a provisional (hell, some courses have red/green lights because you cannot even tell if the group ahead of you is in your way – in the fairway!) Better players can also cut the corner on doglegs which makes it impossible to see if the ball landed in the fairway (or was short…or long)…If everyone hits a provisional, now the group is looking for 8 balls – Great Idea!
Mat
May 7, 2017 at 12:15 am
This is stupid. The example was blind landing. That means that every blind landing needs a provisional. If that’s the case, you’re now asking everyone to load up twice.
George
May 7, 2017 at 6:08 am
Where’s the difference between a ball disappearing behind a mound aka blind landing spot and disappearing behind a bush in the rough? Answer: the confidence of the player.
Have you ever heard of “rub of the green”? Have you ever sliced one in the woods just to see that same ball come back and ending up middle of the fairway after ricocheting from a tree? Well, sometimes you ball bounces in the water or the rough and it’s lost. Boo-hoo.
If you can’t see your ball, hit a provisional. Easy as that. How many blind landing spots are there on any given course?
Iutodd
May 7, 2017 at 7:46 am
A course near me has four tee shots that have blind landing areas I can think of off the top of my head.
Another one near me – depending upon your tee box and how far you hit it/the line you choose to take – has as many as five.
Jimmy D
May 7, 2017 at 7:54 pm
My bad, George…If you are playing Par 3 courses, executive courses, or flat resort courses then you are 100% correct. OTOH, if you are playing real golf courses with dog legs, rolling terrain, or actual elevation changes then you will have some blind tee shots. I have played in tournaments where better players try to drive the green on dogleg par 4’s and their ball ends up in green-side rough; my son routinely has to wait for the group ahead to clear the green on shorter par 4’s (which is a pain without a cart, esp since we can NOT see the green from the tee); and even I have accidentally cut the corner on doglegs and ended up with a flip wedge (although the ball can be tough to find if it isn’t in the fairway). Based on the quality of the tee shot and initial trajectory, NOT ONE person in the group has ever considered a provisional remotely justified… And yes, other than these blind landing area examples, we always hit a provisional when there is a chance the ball we hit may be lost or OOB (and we also make sure to announce that it is a provisional…)
BallBuster
May 8, 2017 at 9:33 am
If every time you can’t see your tee shot and “HIT A F$%#ING PROVISIONAL”, play would slow down to a more than it painful crawl than it often is now and you’d be b!tching more. Then factor in that people don’t often carry a second distinguish-ably different ball (or third) and then it’s trips to get another one, go through their routine, and more. Fact is over 95% of rounds of golf played are for non-USGA handicapping purposes so wtf cares if they go and drop where it disappeared. I’m thankful when they do. Saves me time and aggravation.
Jalan
May 6, 2017 at 11:43 am
To me, this is akin to the new rule in baseball, which allows a team to walk an opposing batter without having to pitch out. It speeds up the game, without, generally, changing the outcome.
I have always accepted dropping 3 and hitting 4 at the same spot. It does eliminate the possibility of the the player hitting another one out of bounds, leaving him on the tee box lying 5, which everyone hates. Of course, people should hit a provisional if they even suspect a problem.
Matt
May 6, 2017 at 11:27 am
This isn’t nearly as complicated as they’re making it. Playing it as a hazard and taking the drop is already a good solution for casual rounds. Golf is about more than perfect rules. I’d prefer to keep the pace of play up than be such a stickler for old rules.
madeinguam81
May 6, 2017 at 9:16 pm
The USGA is recommending essentially the same thing but instead of one penalty stroke, you take two, which is closer to the the penalty of stroke and distance.
TR1PTIK
May 8, 2017 at 12:19 pm
I’ve always played OB this way, and take a one-stroke penalty for a lost ball (at least if I’m certain it was not OB or in a hazard). I don’t agree with a two-stroke penalty for a lost ball. That just seems cruel to the recreational player that has to deal with the potential of another golfer claiming his or her ball. I also don’t think it’s fair since the recreational player doesn’t get a team of ball spotters and spectators to help them locate their golf ball.
PineStreetGolf
May 6, 2017 at 10:09 am
Ugh. This is an example of the USGA at its worst.
They want to solve the problem of a really stupid rule. That is great. Nobody follows stroke and distance during casual rounds, especially when its busy. Good for the USGA.
Then they decide the best way to solve it is instead of coming up with the best solution from scratch their going to come up with the closest approximation to the stupid rule that existed before.
If you think the rule is stupid enough that it needs to be changed why make the solution have anything to do with the previous rule? Just make the best rule possible.
USGA: “This is a really stupid rule. We’re going to change it.”
US: “Awesome! What’s the new rule?”
USGA: “Well, here’s the closest we could come up with to the old, stupid rule….”