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The USGA-Approved Alternative To Golf’s Walk of Shame

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You just hit a tee shot to a blind landing zone. You smashed it, right on the screws. As the ball disappeared behind the hill, it was right on your target line. Great shot, you. You make your way over the hill but your ball is nowhere to be found. You march up and down the fairway, zig-zagging between the left and right rough. After five minutes, the infuriating reality is no longer deniable. It’s lost.

It could have been a bad kick, picked up by a group on an adjacent hole, plugged, or maybe you were lying to yourself about how great your shot was in the first place.

Now what?

If you’re a rule-follower, you march back to the tee-box, add one, and re-load. Hopefully your partner will watch from the fairway, where you’ll be hitting your fourth shot assuming you find it this time. Don’t worry about the group shooting daggers at you from the tee box as you start the hole over. The “While We’re Young” campaign encouraging golfers to pick up the pace? Don’t worry about that, either.

In theory, the stroke-and-distance penalty for a lost or out-of-bounds ball is sensible. In practice, however, it’s ludicrous. During a casual round, most players aren’t willing to make the aforementioned march back to the tee. If you fall into that category, Andrew Elaimy, assistant pro at TPC Boston, offers his suggestion for an appropriate alternative to the stroke and distance dilemma.

“During everyday play, or when playing with members, I suggest playing it as a hazard with your best guess on where you think it entered,” he says. “At the clubs I’ve worked at it, if someone walked back to the tee and set the whole day back, it would be a big issue and they would definitely hear about it from someone in the professional staff.”

The proposed new rules of golf don’t provide a solution for golf’s “walk of shame.” The USGA did, however, acknowledge its shortcoming in this area, echoing Elaimy’s suggestion by offering an “Appropriate Penalty Under Any Alternate Procedure.” This, you know, ensures everybody can break the rules equally. After all, it’s a gentlemen’s game.

The entire explanation for not introducing a solution is worth a read, but the nuts and bolts of the suggested alternative are: use your best judgement on where to drop, then take your fourth shot from there. The section of the USGA’s explanation regarding an agreeable alternative states:

It was recognized that, when groups of golfers agree among themselves to use an alternative to stroke and distance, the player usually drops a ball somewhere around where the player or the group thinks the ball was lost or went out of bounds and takes a penalty of one stroke.

In reviewing the various alternatives to stroke and distance, we discussed whether there should be a penalty of one stroke or two strokes (noting that, at one point in history, the Rules applied a three-stroke penalty in stroke play, and at other times the penalty was distance-only with no added penalty stroke). While no definitive conclusions were reached, it was generally felt that any option that removed the need to return to where the previous stroke was made should carry a penalty of two strokes. This was based on the view that any alternative should seek to replicate the likely outcome of the stroke-and-distance procedure; in effect, the second penalty stroke would substitute for not requiring the player to return to make another stroke from where the previous stroke was made.

By way of example, a player who loses his or her tee shot and plays another ball from the tee into the fairway will be playing the fourth stroke from the fairway. In view of this, any alternative relief option that allows the player to proceed without returning to the tee should have the player playing the fourth stroke, which means a two-stroke penalty needs to be imposed.

Commendably, the USGA uses sound logic in both assuming that most players won’t follow this ridiculous rule, and in how to best break the rule without cheating its spirit. Nicely done.

This explanation should suffice as permission to replace the trek back to the tee box with a reasonable drop and two-stroke penalty the next time you hit that perfect tee shot that somehow vanishes off the golf course. Whether you like the rule as it is, agree with this solution, or have an alternative of your own, the USGA would like to hear your feedback and creative thoughts.

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Nick Heidelberger writes about all things related to golf, from the world's best players to the weekend warriors, although he can only relate to the latter. When he's not writing or golfing, Nick co-hosts the @AtTheTurnPod, hikes with his dogs and roots for his wife's soccer team. Twitter: @njheidelberger

44 Comments

44 Comments

  1. Dill Pickelson

    May 9, 2017 at 1:06 am

    In Japan, even in many non-pro tournaments, this is a rule. They put two more tee markers out in the fairway and you drop it there, playing your fourth.

  2. Onintwo

    May 8, 2017 at 8:25 pm

    Matt well said

  3. Onintwo

    May 8, 2017 at 8:17 pm

    Well said and too funny. Thought they were for aesthetics, never considered them to being another “on course revenue stream”. Great comment.

  4. Dave R

    May 8, 2017 at 5:47 pm

    That would be like summer rules . Some are some aren’t . Golf has rules just like every other sport follow them.

  5. Ron

    May 8, 2017 at 11:08 am

    I see so many issues with this proposed alternative. But the current rule is still too penalizing. So a shot (that is otherwise dry and playable) but rolls into someone’s backyard marked with white stakes incurs stroke and distance. But if you jack a shot into the bottom of a pond, you get to drop from point of entry?

    Best solution would be for courses to line every hole with stakes. No out of bounds. If a ball is lost you get two club lengths from the point of entry. And if it’s someone’s backyard or somewhere the course doesn’t want you attempting to hit from, mark it as a mandatory drop area.

  6. Jam

    May 8, 2017 at 10:26 am

    I’ve never been a huge fan of lost ball or OB for that matter. You can smash a tee shot 3 bills just slightly off your intended line and either lose it or have it kick out of bounds, and somehow that is deemed a worse shot than if you swung and missed your tee shot all together.

  7. Glenk69

    May 8, 2017 at 9:47 am

    How about courses putting in drop areas on each hole, near the back of the holes expected landing area. If someone loses a ball on that hole just go to the landing area.

  8. BallBuster

    May 8, 2017 at 9:24 am

    Our league course has 9 OB holes all very much in play. 2 left and 7 right. A slicer’s nightmare. And the ground is hard enough that a kick could easily roll OB when one thought it should nestle. It got ridiculous when one plays a provisional and that definitely went OB. Now a 3rd needs to be hit. And how many people carry 3 different balls or markings in their pocket? More trips to the bag to rearm themselves. The 3rd shot is a guaranteed duff 90 degrees in the opposite direction of 1 and 2. So screw the USGA. Almost 20 years ago we enacted a hazard rule of 2 club lengths/1 stroke rule from where it crossed the line and play on. Often the lie isn’t great in terms of access forward, so it still was penal, but play sped up significantly, and people were happier (I think that’s a goal of playing as rule anal people often lose sight of). These scores are not for USGA handicapping purposes so wft does it really matter?!!

  9. Lob Wedge

    May 7, 2017 at 4:45 pm

    It’s nice that the USGA has caught up with what the general golfing public has done for the past 40 years. I can’t recall the last time I saw anyone walk back to the tee during casual play. Do these guys play golf in the real world with real people or is it all 0HCP country clubbers? It’s like hearing the president being amazed at the cost of milk when he goes to the grocery store for the first time in 10 years.

    Here’s a thought for the USGA. Let’s be progressive and think ahead instead of agreeing that what’s already done is OK. You guys are without a forward thinking clue. Ugh..

  10. Iutodd

    May 7, 2017 at 8:54 am

    My friend and I had a ‘Tiger Woods Rule’: the idea being that Tiger Woods basically never ever loses a ball when he is playing because 900 people are watching and finding his ball for him.

    So when he and I are playing a course and I hit one into a blind area or just an area with a few trees that is mostly open and we can’t find it…the idea that I’m supposed to follow the same “rules” as Tiger is just ridiculous to me. If there is no hazard, no OB and it’s just an area of rough with a few trees (in the midwest every course I’ve ever played on has any number of playable areas like this) then I should be able to find a ball that I hit into that area. Tiger would have found it – actually basically ANY professional would have found it – but we chose Tiger cause he was fairly wild off the tee.

    But sometimes amateurs just can’t find their ball in an area where there isn’t any reason for them not to find it. The ball takes a weird hop off a tree, it went shorter or farther than I thought, some sort of hole in the ground swallowed it up – or it’s the first time I’ve played this course and I don’t know the distances/angles just yet. I’m supposed to take two penalty strokes in that situation and/or walk back to the tee? Just because I’m NOT Tiger Woods and don’t have all kinds of people and marshals watching? That’s ridiculous to me. What’s probably happened is that it’s under a tree or a rock and I would probably take an unplayable – which is just one stroke and drop within two club lengths.

    The bottom line is that a professional golfer hits something like 6 out of 10 fairways. But some days they only hit 3. An amateur might be having a good day if they hit 3 and an all-time kind of day if they hit 6. There is a lot of searching for your golf ball is the point. I watch a LOT of golf and I honestly can’t recall a pro not being able to find his ball no matter where they hit it. Didn’t Sergio literally find his ball halfway up a tree? C’mon.

    I understand it’s a fairly fine line between saying: “It should be here and I’m not taking a penalty” and using a Judge Smails foot wedge – but the line exists and there is a difference. I can act in good faith. If I’m not playing a tourney or keeping track of my handicap…

    • Mat

      May 8, 2017 at 7:30 am

      Amen. Damn leaves. The penalty is the $4.

      • PCR

        May 8, 2017 at 9:41 am

        It’s only $1.25 if you are playing a K-Sig. 😉

      • Onintwo

        May 8, 2017 at 8:23 pm

        Too true. Playing in a blind draw alternating shot tournament, I saw the blood drain from my partners face as I shillelaghed his shiny $5 Pro V into the netherworld.

    • Grizz01

      May 8, 2017 at 10:45 am

      Not only do the have people watching their ball. The have crowds that act as natural backstops. (we don’t have) The ball doesn’t roll further into trouble. And you know there are people in a big crowd that will ‘give’ them a good lie.

  11. CGC

    May 7, 2017 at 8:25 am

    It’s not the rules that need to be fixed. Rules are not slowing down the our play on the weekends. It’s “the stupid”. We need a cure for stupid. It’s 2 people in a cart standing over 1 ball, taking 5 practice swings. Then getting in the cart and driving 40 feet across the fairway to the other ball, only to take 5 practice swings.

    It’s bringing 1 wedge to the green, deciding its the wrong club, going for your other wedge, hitting the shot, then going back to the cart for your putter.

    I’d rather play behind somebody shooting 90 with a 110 IQ, than somebody shooting 80 with an 90 IQ.

    NONE of the foursome slowing you down are following the rules. They don’t even know the rules, and they will never ever know that they have been changed.
    When you bring people out to learn golf. Don’t waste your breath teaching them the rules. Teach them to PLAY FAST. Teach them to be ready. Keep a 2nd ball in your pocket, continue your putts. STOP MARKING YOUR BALL when your lag put leaves you 1.5 feet left. Your lowering your chances of making it anyway.

    Fix the stupid.

    • Steve S

      May 8, 2017 at 12:14 pm

      Ignorance can be cured(fixed). Stupid is forever.

      • Fredo

        May 17, 2017 at 11:38 pm

        Wow, I nominate you for our local swami, well done!

  12. Mark hawkinson

    May 7, 2017 at 7:31 am

    Why is hitting a ball OB worse than hitting a ball in a pond? OB should be treated as a hazard with the stipulation that the player may not attempt to play out of it (someone’s back yard) A two stroke penalty is too severe. If the player had re-teed the ball it would be likely the second shot would be in a better position than two club lengths from OB.

    • Mat

      May 8, 2017 at 7:28 am

      Totally agree.

      Some will say they want to make it worse, etc.

      Sometimes, I think it would be better if we all played double-bogey pickup (Original Stableford) and if you have a penalty ball, well, double-bogey it is.

  13. James

    May 7, 2017 at 4:59 am

    It doesn’t happen to professionals because they have spotters everywhere. Us amateurs are considerably worse (and not getting better according to the stats) and punished unfairly so why not treat it like a hazard and do away with the stroke and distance penalty in these circumstances? No more provisionals, a single simple rule for all circumstances and much faster play???

  14. coolhandbirdman

    May 7, 2017 at 2:07 am

    you’ve never played where creeks and streams are common in the area have you. no reason to dam up mother nature to give you break. be a man and jump in after your round and fetch your lost balls.

  15. Luke

    May 7, 2017 at 12:41 am

    If you are at the estimated spot. Then you should find your ball. If it’s not there then you have no idea where you hit it. Take a walk back and reload or dq. If your handing in a card and you took the liberty of thinking this is where it should have been then your a cheat!! Those who complain about the time should play nothing but stableford then you can just wipe a hole and move on and pick up after double.

    • coolhandbirdman

      May 7, 2017 at 2:03 am

      who are you handing your card into on a casual round of golf that is semi-competitive between the people you are playing with other than the garbage can after the winner of the 5 bucks? you’ve never hit a ball that you knew was in some overseeded thick rough, and couldn’t find it? take a chill pill luke and be more coolhand….ayyy.

    • Scott

      May 8, 2017 at 9:18 am

      Handing in a card? HAHAHAHAHA.
      OB rule is just as stupid as the “You can not post a round if you played by yourself” rule. 99% of the people that I play with have no idea what score I posted for handicap purposes.
      The proposed rule changes are a step in the right direction but they still have a ways to go. There is a big difference between cheating and basically playing by the intended rules.

    • Steve S

      May 8, 2017 at 12:19 pm

      I play at a LOT of different courses with people from all walks of life. Out of 100 people MAYBE 2 of them have an official USGA handicap and record their scores. Even some of the private courses I’ve played only 1 in 4 record their scores. Most of us don’t take the game that seriously but love to play….

  16. Mat

    May 7, 2017 at 12:30 am

    I believe the worst part of the rule is that:
    a) We know are rules are stupid
    b) We suggest this rule for casual play
    c) We don’t observe casual play as official
    d) Casual play is not bifurcation; it’s just sanctioned cheating

    These new rules are a start, but they do not go far enough… I’m against any bifurcation in equipment rules, but good gravy, either clean up the rules to match the initiatives for fast, fair play, or split tournament rules officially. This rule change is half-pregnant.

  17. Mat

    May 7, 2017 at 12:22 am

    Frankly, I find even this rule stupid. If my ball is in the fairway under one of 10,000 leaves, another ball goes down in the closest estimated landing position. No penalty.

    If everyone agrees it *should* be in the fairway, toss one over your shoulder where it should be. Two minutes looking maximum. If you’re near a hazard, you’re in the hazard.

    This is the reverse of the “call-in” rule. If you lose a ball because no one is watching, how is it your fault? The loss of a golf ball within the “field of play” is a terrible penalty. When people say that the rules are to help a golfer, that’s nonsense.

  18. Philip

    May 6, 2017 at 7:34 pm

    Just think … in a few decades they can just stay home and watch the tube while their robot goes out onto the course and plays on their behalf … in fact, why ever leave their homes .. then again why even exist in the first place …

  19. Philip

    May 6, 2017 at 7:31 pm

    I have applied the drop + 2, hitting 4 off the tee whenever I turn out to be incorrect on where I thought my ball was (of course actually watching my ball land and taking note of a nearby tree or other object works wonders too). In a way I am hurting myself more than going back to the tee as I have assumed my second off the tee went to the same crappy place as my first. Then again – highly likely if my swing has sailed away for the day. Of course, I do not think the rule is ridiculous as one just has to hit a provisional which myself and most I play with do. Fact is, people do not want to be punished for a crappy shot … or having to hit off of hardpan … or having to make a 3-5 foot putt … or having to play a shot from the sand … or on a hilly lie …

  20. alan

    May 6, 2017 at 7:09 pm

    yet we still have to play out of a divot in the fairway. get it together usga.

    • Mat

      May 7, 2017 at 12:24 am

      Exactly. 6″ / 150mm lift and place in non-green non-hazard is long, long overdue.

    • Jam

      May 8, 2017 at 10:28 am

      Somehow a ripped tee shot that kicks out of bounds is worse than a whiff.

  21. George

    May 6, 2017 at 3:51 pm

    There’s a rule for the example that is mentioned. R27-2. If you can’t see your Ball from the tee, HIT A F$%#ING PROVISIONAL!!!

    • Jimmy D

      May 6, 2017 at 8:25 pm

      Kind of an ignorant comment…obviously you have never played a course where the tee shot is to a landing area that No One can see from the tee. I have played courses in CA, MA, NC, and NH where your suggestion would require all golfers that hit a reasonable tee shot to hit a provisional (hell, some courses have red/green lights because you cannot even tell if the group ahead of you is in your way – in the fairway!) Better players can also cut the corner on doglegs which makes it impossible to see if the ball landed in the fairway (or was short…or long)…If everyone hits a provisional, now the group is looking for 8 balls – Great Idea!

    • Mat

      May 7, 2017 at 12:15 am

      This is stupid. The example was blind landing. That means that every blind landing needs a provisional. If that’s the case, you’re now asking everyone to load up twice.

      • George

        May 7, 2017 at 6:08 am

        Where’s the difference between a ball disappearing behind a mound aka blind landing spot and disappearing behind a bush in the rough? Answer: the confidence of the player.
        Have you ever heard of “rub of the green”? Have you ever sliced one in the woods just to see that same ball come back and ending up middle of the fairway after ricocheting from a tree? Well, sometimes you ball bounces in the water or the rough and it’s lost. Boo-hoo.
        If you can’t see your ball, hit a provisional. Easy as that. How many blind landing spots are there on any given course?

        • Iutodd

          May 7, 2017 at 7:46 am

          A course near me has four tee shots that have blind landing areas I can think of off the top of my head.

          Another one near me – depending upon your tee box and how far you hit it/the line you choose to take – has as many as five.

        • Jimmy D

          May 7, 2017 at 7:54 pm

          My bad, George…If you are playing Par 3 courses, executive courses, or flat resort courses then you are 100% correct. OTOH, if you are playing real golf courses with dog legs, rolling terrain, or actual elevation changes then you will have some blind tee shots. I have played in tournaments where better players try to drive the green on dogleg par 4’s and their ball ends up in green-side rough; my son routinely has to wait for the group ahead to clear the green on shorter par 4’s (which is a pain without a cart, esp since we can NOT see the green from the tee); and even I have accidentally cut the corner on doglegs and ended up with a flip wedge (although the ball can be tough to find if it isn’t in the fairway). Based on the quality of the tee shot and initial trajectory, NOT ONE person in the group has ever considered a provisional remotely justified… And yes, other than these blind landing area examples, we always hit a provisional when there is a chance the ball we hit may be lost or OOB (and we also make sure to announce that it is a provisional…)

    • BallBuster

      May 8, 2017 at 9:33 am

      If every time you can’t see your tee shot and “HIT A F$%#ING PROVISIONAL”, play would slow down to a more than it painful crawl than it often is now and you’d be b!tching more. Then factor in that people don’t often carry a second distinguish-ably different ball (or third) and then it’s trips to get another one, go through their routine, and more. Fact is over 95% of rounds of golf played are for non-USGA handicapping purposes so wtf cares if they go and drop where it disappeared. I’m thankful when they do. Saves me time and aggravation.

  22. Jalan

    May 6, 2017 at 11:43 am

    To me, this is akin to the new rule in baseball, which allows a team to walk an opposing batter without having to pitch out. It speeds up the game, without, generally, changing the outcome.

    I have always accepted dropping 3 and hitting 4 at the same spot. It does eliminate the possibility of the the player hitting another one out of bounds, leaving him on the tee box lying 5, which everyone hates. Of course, people should hit a provisional if they even suspect a problem.

  23. Matt

    May 6, 2017 at 11:27 am

    This isn’t nearly as complicated as they’re making it. Playing it as a hazard and taking the drop is already a good solution for casual rounds. Golf is about more than perfect rules. I’d prefer to keep the pace of play up than be such a stickler for old rules.

    • madeinguam81

      May 6, 2017 at 9:16 pm

      The USGA is recommending essentially the same thing but instead of one penalty stroke, you take two, which is closer to the the penalty of stroke and distance.

      • TR1PTIK

        May 8, 2017 at 12:19 pm

        I’ve always played OB this way, and take a one-stroke penalty for a lost ball (at least if I’m certain it was not OB or in a hazard). I don’t agree with a two-stroke penalty for a lost ball. That just seems cruel to the recreational player that has to deal with the potential of another golfer claiming his or her ball. I also don’t think it’s fair since the recreational player doesn’t get a team of ball spotters and spectators to help them locate their golf ball.

  24. PineStreetGolf

    May 6, 2017 at 10:09 am

    Ugh. This is an example of the USGA at its worst.

    They want to solve the problem of a really stupid rule. That is great. Nobody follows stroke and distance during casual rounds, especially when its busy. Good for the USGA.

    Then they decide the best way to solve it is instead of coming up with the best solution from scratch their going to come up with the closest approximation to the stupid rule that existed before.

    If you think the rule is stupid enough that it needs to be changed why make the solution have anything to do with the previous rule? Just make the best rule possible.

    USGA: “This is a really stupid rule. We’re going to change it.”
    US: “Awesome! What’s the new rule?”
    USGA: “Well, here’s the closest we could come up with to the old, stupid rule….”

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open betting preview

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As the Florida swing comes to an end, the PGA Tour makes its way to Houston to play the Texas Children’s Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course.

This will be the fourth year that Memorial Park Golf Course will serve as the tournament host. The event did not take place in 2023, but the course hosted the event in 2020, 2021 and 2022.

Memorial Park is a par-70 layout measuring 7,432 yards and features Bermudagrass greens. Historically, the main defense for the course has been thick rough along the fairways and tightly mown runoff areas around the greens. Memorial Park has a unique setup that features three Par 5’s and five Par 3’s.

The field will consist of 132 players, with the top 65 and ties making the cut. There are some big names making the trip to Houston, including Scottie Scheffler, Wyndham Clark, Tony Finau, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala.

Past Winners at Memorial Park

  • 2022: Tony Finau (-16)
  • 2021: Jason Kokrak (-10)
  • 2020: Carlos Ortiz (-13)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Memorial Park

Let’s take a look at several metrics for Memorial Park to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds:

Strokes Gained: Approach

Memorial Park is a pretty tough golf course. Golfers are penalized for missing greens and face some difficult up and downs to save par. Approach will be key.

Total Strokes Gained: Approach per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.30)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.26)
  3. Keith Mitchell (+0.97) 
  4. Tony Finau (+0.92)
  5. Jake Knapp (+0.84)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Memorial Park is a long golf course with rough that can be penal. Therefore, a combination of distance and accuracy is the best metric.

Total Strokes Gained: Off the Tee per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+0.94)
  2. Kevin Dougherty (+0.93)
  3. Cameron Champ (+0.86)
  4. Rafael Campos (+0.84)
  5. Si Woo Kim (+0.70)

Strokes Gained Putting: Bermudagrass + Fast

The Bermudagrass greens played fairly fast the past few years in Houston. Jason Kokrak gained 8.7 strokes putting on his way to victory in 2021 and Tony Finau gained in 7.8 in 2022.

Total Strokes Gained Putting (Bermudagrass) per round past 24 rounds (min. 8 rounds):

  1. Adam Svensson (+1.27)
  2. Harry Hall (+1.01)
  3. Martin Trainer (+0.94)
  4. Taylor Montgomery (+0.88)
  5. S.H. Kim (+0.86)

Strokes Gained: Around the Green

With firm and undulating putting surfaces, holding the green on approach shots may prove to be a challenge. Memorial Park has many tightly mowed runoff areas, so golfers will have challenging up-and-down’s around the greens. Carlos Ortiz gained 5.7 strokes around the green on the way to victory in 2020.

Total Strokes Gained: Around the Green per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Mackenzie Hughes (+0.76)
  2. S.H. Kim (+0.68)
  3. Scottie Scheffler (+0.64)
  4. Jorge Campillo (+0.62)
  5. Jason Day (+0.60)

Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult

Memorial Park is a long and difficult golf course. This statistic will incorporate players who’ve had success on these types of tracks in the past. 

Total Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.45)
  2. Ben Griffin (+1.75)
  3. Will Zalatoris (+1.73)
  4. Ben Taylor (+1.53)
  5. Tony Finau (+1.42)

Course History

Here are the players who have performed the most consistently at Memorial Park. 

Strokes Gained Total at Memorial Park past 12 rounds:

  1. Tyson Alexander (+3.65)
  2. Ben Taylor (+3.40)
  3. Tony Finau (+2.37)
  4. Joel Dahmen (+2.25)
  5. Patton Kizzire (+2.16)

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (24%) SG: OTT (24%); SG: Putting Bermudagrass/Fast (13%); SG: Long and Difficult (13%); SG: ARG (13%) and Course History (13%)

  1. Scottie Scheffler
  2. Wyndham Clark
  3. Tony Finau
  4. Joel Dahmen
  5. Stephan Jaeger 
  6. Aaron Rai
  7. Sahith Theegala
  8. Keith Mitchell 
  9. Jhonnatan Vegas
  10. Jason Day
  11. Kurt Kitayama
  12. Alex Noren
  13. Will Zalatoris
  14. Si Woo Kim
  15. Adam Long

2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open Picks

Will Zalatoris +2000 (Caesars)

Scottie Scheffler will undoubtedly be difficult to beat this week, so I’m starting my card with someone who I believe has the talent to beat him if he doesn’t have his best stuff.

Will Zalatoris missed the cut at the PLAYERS, but still managed to gain strokes on approach while doing so. In an unpredictable event with extreme variance, I don’t believe it would be wise to discount Zalatoris based on that performance. Prior to The PLAYERS, the 27-year-old finished T13, T2 and T4 in his previous three starts.

Zalatoris plays his best golf on long and difficult golf courses. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the category, but the eye test also tells a similar story. He’s contended at major championships and elevated events in the best of fields with tough scoring conditions.  The Texas resident should be a perfect fit at Memorial Park Golf Club.

Alex Noren +4500 (FanDuel)

Alex Noren has been quietly playing some of his best golf of the last half decade this season. The 41-year-old is coming off back-to-back top-20 finishes in Florida including a T9 at The PLAYERS in his most recent start.

In his past 24 rounds, Noren ranks 21st in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 30th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, 25th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses and 21st in Strokes Gained: Putting on fast Bermudagrass greens.

In addition to his strong recent play, the Swede also has played well at Memorial Park. In 2022, Noren finished T4 at the event, gaining 2.2 strokes off the tee and 7.0 strokes on approach for the week. In his two starts at the course, he’s gained an average of .6 strokes per round on the field, indicating he is comfortable on these greens.

Noren has been due for a win for what feels like an eternity, but Memorial Park may be the course that suits him well enough for him to finally get his elusive first PGA Tour victory.

Mackenzie Hughes +8000 (FanDuel)

Mackenzie Hughes found himself deep into contention at last week’s Valspar Championship before faltering late and finishing in a tie for 3rd place. While he would have loved to win the event, it’s hard to see the performance as anything other than an overwhelming positive sign for the Canadian.

Hughes has played great golf at Memorial Park in the past. He finished T7 in 2020, T29 in 2021 and T16 in 2022. The course fit seems to be quite strong for Hughes. He’s added distance off the tee in the past year or and ranks 8th in the field for apex height, which will be a key factor when hitting into Memorial Park’s elevated greens with steep run-off areas.

In his past 24 rounds, Hughes is the best player in the field in Strokes Gained: Around the Greens. The ability to scramble at this course will be extremely important. I believe Hughes can build off of his strong finish last week and contend once again to cement himself as a President’s Cup consideration.

Akshay Bhatia +8000 (FanDuel)

Akshay Bhatia played well last week at the Valspar and seemed to be in total control of his golf ball. He finished in a tie for 17th and shot an impressive -3 on a difficult Sunday. After struggling Thursday, Akshay shot 68-70-68 in his next three rounds.

Thus far, Bhatia has played better at easier courses, but his success at Copperhead may be due to his game maturing. The 22-year-old has enormous potential and the raw talent to be one of the best players in the world when he figures it all out.

Bhatia is a high upside play with superstar qualities and may just take the leap forward to the next stage of his career in the coming months.

Cameron Champ +12000 (FanDuel)

Cameron Champ is a player I often target in the outright betting market due to his “boom-or-bust” nature. It’s hard to think of a player in recent history with three PGA Tour wins who’s been as inconsistent as Champ has over the course of his career.

Despite the erratic play, Cam Champ simply knows how to win. He’s won in 2018, 2019 and 2021, so I feel he’s due for a win at some point this season. The former Texas A&M product should be comfortable in Texas and last week he showed us that his game is in a pretty decent spot.

Over his past 24 rounds, Champ ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 30th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses. Given his ability to spike at any given time, Memorial Park is a good golf course to target Champ on at triple digit odds.

Robert MacIntyre +12000 (FanDuel)

The challenge this week is finding players who can possibly beat Scottie Scheffler while also not dumping an enormous amount of money into an event that has a player at the top that looks extremely dangerous. Enter McIntyre, who’s another boom-or-bust type player who has the ceiling to compete with anyone when his game is clicking on all cylinders.

In his past 24 rounds, MacIntyre ranks 16th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 17th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and 10th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses.

MacIntyre’s PGA Tour season has gotten off to a slow start, but he finished T6 in Mexico, which is a course where players will hit driver on the majority of their tee shots, which is what we will see at Memorial Park. Texas can also get quite windy, which should suit MacIntyre. Last July, the Scot went toe to toe with Rory McIlroy at the Scottish Open before a narrow defeat. It would take a similar heroic effort to compete with Scheffler this year in Houston.

Ryan Moore +15000 (FanDuel)

Ryan Moore’s iron play has been absolutely unconscious over his past few starts. At The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field, he gained 6.1 strokes on approach and last week at Copperhead, he gained 9.0 strokes on approach.

It’s been a rough handful of years on Tour for the 41-year-old, but he is still a five-time winner on the PGA Tour who’s young enough for a career resurgence. Moore has chronic deterioration in a costovertebral joint that connects the rib to the spine, but has been getting more consistent of late, which is hopefully a sign that he is getting healthy.

Veterans have been contending in 2024 and I believe taking a flier on a proven Tour play who’s shown signs of life is a wise move at Memorial Park.

 

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Why the race to get better at golf might be doing more harm than good

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B.F. Skinner was one of the most important psychologists of the 20th century, developing the foundation of the development of reinforcement, and in doing so, creating the concept of behaviorism. In simple terms, this means that we are conditioned by our habits. In practical terms, it explains the divide between the few and far between elite instructors and college coaches.

To understand the application, let’s quickly review one of B.F. Skinner’s most important experiments; superstitions in the formation of behavior by pigeons. In this experiment, food was dispensed to pigeons at random intervals. Soon, according to Skinner, the pigeons began to associate whatever action they were doing at the time of the food being dispensed. According to Skinner, this conditioned that response and soon, they simply haphazardly repeated the action, failing to distinguish between cause and correlation (and in the meantime, looking really funny!).

Now, this is simply the best way to describe the actions of most every women’s college golf coach and too many instructors in America. They see something work, get positive feedback and then become conditioned to give the feedback, more and more, regardless of if it works (this is also why tips from your buddies never work!).

Go to a college event, particularly a women’s one, and you will see coaches running all over the place. Like the pigeons in the experiment, they have been conditioned into a codependent relationship with their players in which they believe their words and actions, can transform a round of golf. It is simply hilarious while being equally perturbing

In junior golf, it’s everywhere. Junior golf academies make a living selling parents that a hysterical coach and over-coaching are essential ingredients in your child’s success.

Let’s be clear, no one of any intellect has any real interest in golf — because it’s not that interesting. The people left, including most coaches and instructors, carve out a small fiefdom, usually on the corner of the range, where they use the illusion of competency to pray on people. In simple terms, they baffle people with the bullshit of pseudo-science that they can make you better, after just one more lesson.

The reality is that life is an impromptu game. The world of golf, business, and school have a message that the goal is being right. This, of course, is bad advice, being right in your own mind is easy, trying to push your ideas on others is hard. As a result, it is not surprising that the divorce rate among golf professionals and their instructors is 100 percent. The transfer rate among college players continues to soar, and too many courses have a guy peddling nefarious science to good people. In fact, we do at my course!

The question is, what impact does all this have on college-age and younger kids? At this point, we honestly don’t know. However, I am going to go out on a limb and say it isn’t good.

Soren Kierkegaard once quipped “I saw it for what it is, and I laughed.” The actions of most coaches and instructors in America are laughable. The problem is that I am not laughing because they are doing damage to kids, as well as driving good people away from this game.

The fact is that golfers don’t need more tips, secrets, or lessons. They need to be presented with a better understanding of the key elements of golf. With this understanding, they can then start to frame which information makes sense and what doesn’t. This will emancipate them and allow them to take charge of their own development.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Valspar Championship betting preview: Elite ballstrikers to thrive at Copperhead

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The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2024 Valspar Championship.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermudagrass greens overseeded with POA. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 16, 17 and 18 — also known as the “Snake Pit” — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.

The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. The field this week is solid and is a major improvement over last year’s field that felt the impact of players skipping due to a handful of “signature events” in a short span of time. 

Past Winners at Valspar Championship

  • 2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
  • 2022: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
  • 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
  • 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
  • 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
  • 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Copperhead

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can’t be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)

  1. Tony Finau (+.90)
  2. Nick Taylor (+.81)
  3. Justin Thomas (+.77)
  4. Greyson Sigg (+.69)
  5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+.67)

2. Good Drive %

The long hitters can be a bit limited here due to the tree-lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important, but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.

Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+91.3%) 
  2. Zach Johnson (+91.1%)
  3. Sam Ryder (+90.5%)
  4. Ryan Moore (+90.4%)
  5. Aaron Rai (+89.7%)

3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1.32)
  2. Keith Mitchell (+1.29)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.24)
  4. Cameron Young (+1.17) 
  5. Doug Ghim (+.95)

4. Bogey Avoidance

With the conditions likely to be difficult, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, oftentimes the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.

Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.

Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+9.0)
  2. Xander Schauffele (+9.3)
  3. Austin Cook (+9.7) 
  4. Chesson Hadley (+10.0)
  5. Greyson Sigg (+10.2)

5. Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions

Conditions will be tough this week at Copperhead. I am looking for golfers who can rise to the occasion if the course plays as difficult as it has in the past.

Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1,71) 
  2. Min Woo Lee (+1.39)
  3. Cameron Young (+1.27)
  4. Jordan Spieth (+1.08)
  5. Justin Suh (+.94)

6. Course History

That statistic will tell us which players have played well at Copperhead in the past.

Course History Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+3.75) 
  2. Sam Burns (+2.49)
  3. Davis Riley (+2.33)
  4. Matt NeSmith (+2.22)
  5. Jordan Spieth (+2.04)

The Valspar Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Good Drive % (15%), SG: BS (20%), Bogeys Avoided (13%), Course History (13%) Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions (12%).

  1. Xander Schauffele
  2. Doug Ghim
  3. Victor Perez
  4. Greyson Sigg
  5. Ryan Moore
  6. Tony Finau
  7. Justin Thomas
  8. Sam Ryder
  9. Sam Burns
  10. Lucas Glover

2024 Valspar Championship Picks

Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)

Justin Thomas will be disappointed with his finish at last week’s PLAYERS Championship, as the past champion missed the cut despite being in some decent form heading into the event. Despite the missed cut, JT hit the ball really well. In his two rounds, the two-time major champion led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach per round.

Thomas has been up and down this season. He’s missed the cut in two “signature events” but also has finishes of T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T6 at the Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am and T3 at the American Express. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in the field.

Thomas loves Copperhead. In his last three tries at the course, he’s finished T13, T3 and T10. Thomas would have loved to get a win at a big event early in the season, but avoidable mistakes and a balky putter have cost him dearly. I believe a trip to a course he loves in a field he should be able to capitalize on is the right recipe for JT to right the ship.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (FanDuel)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is playing spectacular golf in the 2024 season. He finished 2nd at the American Express, T20 at Pebble Beach and T24 at the Genesis Invitational before finishing T13 at last week’s PLAYERS Championship.

In his past 24 rounds, the South African ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 26th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. Bezuidenhout managed to work his way around TPC Sawgrass last week with minimal damage. He only made five bogeys in the entire week, which is a great sign heading into a difficult Copperhead this week.

Bezuidenhout is winless in his PGA Tour career, but certainly has the talent to win on Tour. His recent iron play tells me that this week could be a breakthrough for the 35-year-old who has eyes on the President’s Cup.

Doug Ghim +8000 (FanDuel)

Doug Ghim has finished in the top-16 of his past five starts. Most recently, Ghim finished T16 at The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field.

In his past 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 5th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. In terms of his fit for Copperhead, the 27-year-old ranks 12th in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions, making him a great fit for the course.

Ghim has yet to win on Tour, but at one point he was the top ranked Amateur golfer in the world and played in the 2017 Arnold Palmer Cup and 2017 Walker Cup. He then won the Ben Hogan award for the best male college golfer in 2018. He certainly has the talent, and there are signals aplenty that his talent in ready to take him to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour.

Sepp Straka +8000 (BetRivers)

Sepp Straka is a player who’s shown he has the type of game that can translate to a difficult Florida golf course. The former Presidents Cup participant won the 2022 Honda Classic in tough conditions and should thrive with a similar test at Copperhead.

It’s been a slow 2024 for Straka, but his performance last week at the PLAYERS Championship surely provides some optimism. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach as well as 1.88 strokes off the tee. The tee-to-green game Straka showed on a course with plenty of danger demonstrates that he can stay in control of his golf ball this week.

It’s possible that the strong performance last week was an outlier, but I’m willing to bet on a proven winner in a weaker field at a great number.

Victor Perez +12000 (FanDuel)

Victor Perez is no stranger to success in professional golf. The Frenchman has three DP World Tour wins including a Rolex Series event. He won the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, as well as the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which are some big events.

Perez earned his PGA Tour card this season and enters the week playing some fantastic golf. He finished in a tie for 16th in Florida at the Cognizant Classic and then tied for third in his most recent start at the Puerto Rico Open.

In his past 24 rounds in the field, Perez ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 1oth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Good Drive % and 15th in Bogey Avoidance.

Perez comes in as a perfect fit for Copperhead and offers serious value at triple-digit odds.

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