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The Best Golfers Without a Major? Who Belongs on the List and Who Doesn’t

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Here it is, everyone’s favorite argument: Who’s the best golfer without a major championship?

People, especially media members, love to have discussions such as this one. In basketball, the argument is for who’s the greatest player without an NBA Championship. In football, it’s usually the best quarterback without a Super Bowl. Even arguments such as “who’s the best actor without an Oscar” flood the Internet.

In most sports, athletes get about five years to prove themselves worthy of being on such a list, then by seven years in it’s the only questions they get in press conferences. LeBron knows what I’m saying; and so does Carmelo Anthony, although I think everyone’s given up on him by now. That question basically forced KD to the Warriors.

But in golf, the leash is unbelievably short. If you’re deemed a great golfer, you better start producing quickly. It seems Sergio Garcia came out of the womb with a “best golfer without a major” tag. I’m sure if he didn’t have to answer that question so much throughout his career, and if Tiger Woods wasn’t the greatest closer of all time, he would have got it done sooner. Tiger never had to deal with it himself because of how quickly he started winning. But Phil Mickelson got it bad. Colin Montgomerie probably still has nightmares about it, no matter what he says. Jon Rahm is only three majors into his career, and now that Sergio won the monkey-off-his-back-Masters, Rahm is next in line. I kind of feel for him, too; a victim of his own potential greatness.

As an individual sport, the light shines bright on golf’s “stars” to produce major victories. Regular PGA Tour wins are basically just measuring sticks to determine who’s ready to win majors. It’s weird, but it’s the nature of the sport post-Jack Nicklaus. When Jack decided to play a limited schedule and focus on majors, so did the media, and everyone else followed. Now it’s majors or bust.

If you’re “great” (have a solid resume but haven’t won a major) they ask “why haven’t you won yet?” If you’re great and have only won one or two, they ask “why haven’t you won more? What’s wrong with you?!”

The problem is, major championships are extremely difficult to win. There’s a learning curve and a progression. Beating 120-player fields without vast experience is just very unlikely. Jack and Tiger and Jordan (Spieth) are outliers. It’s just not that easy.

Therefore, I don’t think media members or fans should make arbitrary lists, labeling golfers as “the best without a major” without a specific question in mind. There’s a better way to evaluate those with a goose egg in the major wins column. For this argument, you should ask yourself, “How surprised am I that this golfer hasn’t won a major yet?” That way, you can determine who belongs on that “best without” list and who doesn’t. The last thing we want to do is label a great young talent as “best without” and have it become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Give them some time and space.

Here’s my run at it.

Doesn’t Belong: Luke Donald

GOLF: APR 02 PGA - Shell Houston Open - Final Round

Why he doesn’t belong on the “best without” list: Donald (39 years old) has won a PGA Tour Player of the Year, European’s Race to Dubai, and he held the No. 1 in the world spot for 56 weeks (that’s longer than Ian Woosnam, Fred Couples, Nick Price, Ernie Els, David Duval, Vijay Singh, Jason Day and Jordan Spieth). He’s had eight top-10s at major championships, five PGA Tour wins and seven European Tour wins. He finished T3 in his first ever appearance at The Masters in 2005, tied for his best ever finish at a major championship.

Despite a straight-up stacked resume, however, I find it hard to say I’m super surprised Donald never won a major. He’s a top-10 machine and a money maker, but even as a No. 1 in the world he never felt like a favorite. I’m not shocked he never got it done on the big stage, and I won’t be shocked if he retires without one.

Belongs: Lee Westwood

Why he belongs on the “best without” list: Wait, Lee Westwood never won a major championship? Can anyone from the media confirm?

Westwood is always one of the best ball strikers in whatever field he was in, but the fact is he has never putted well enough… especially when the heat was on. With 18 top-10s in the majors, you’d think he would’ve gotten lucky and hit the hole a few times in ONE of them. But alas.

Doesn’t Belong: Hideki Matsuyama

The Masters - Round Two

Why he doesn’t belong: Sometimes you can’t tell by his body language, but Hideki Matsuyama is so, so good at golf. At 25, he already has five top-10s in majors and four PGA Tour victories. He’s also ranked No. 4 in the world, and it’s inevitable he’s going to win a major. But am I surprised he hasn’t done it yet? Not yet, but he might be the best golfer in this entire article.

He played his first major in 2011, but he didn’t start playing a full major-championship schedule until 2013. So he’s only in his fifth year competing for real. I’ll give him two more years — as is standard in these arguments as we established in the intro — until I start hitting him with the shocked face.

Doesn’t Belong: Rickie Fowler

Why he doesn’t belong: Fowler is a tough one. As we know, he finished in the top 5 in every major in 2014. But that year, he lost by six shots to Bubba in The Masters, eight to Martin Kaymer at the U.S. Open, started six back of Rory McIlroy heading into Sunday at The Open and came in third behind Rory and Phil at the PGA. Did we truly, honestly expect him to win any of those?

He’s 28 and has four PGA Tour wins, including a Players Championship. He’s had a great career so far. And if I’m being honest, a better career than I even expected to this point. Fowler was definitely a stand-out amateur, but I just never expected much of him as a PGA Tour pro. And that’s mainly because of his swing. Until his work with Butch Harmon, I never trusted his swing to hold up under pressure.

Over the past few years, he seems to have toned down big misses and has a phenomenal short game that saves his mediocre iron play. But am I surprised Rickie Fowler isn’t yet a major champion? Why do you ask, because he looks like a superstar and seems like the coolest guy ever? Golf wise, no I’m not surprised. Talk to me in five years.

Belongs: Ryan Moore

2016 CIMB Classic Golf - Day 1

Why he belongs: People tend to forget, probably because of his lack of star power, that Ryan Moore was one of the best amateur golfers ever. He won the NCAA Individual Championship, the U.S. Amateur Public Links and the U.S. Amateur in 2004. By all accounts, he was destined for greatness in the big leagues.

Since then, he’s recorded five PGA Tour wins and a few top-10s in major championships. The best he’s ever finished in a major was T9, which he tied on Sunday at The 2017 Masters. He was in the third-to-last group, but everyone wrote him off; they turned out to be right.

At 34, Moore is one of the most talented and accomplished golfers never win to a major — at least in the modern era. He has a goofy swing, but I always thought that made him some sort of golfing savant. When he turned professional, if you asked me how many majors Moore would have by now, I’d probably have said three or four.

Doesn’t Belong: Matt Kuchar

Why he doesn’t belong: He was a brilliant amateur golfer — he lost to Tiger Woods in the semi-finals of the 1996 U.S. Amateur then won it in 1997 — and is an absolute cash machine as a professional. He won the Honda Classic in 2002, then all but disappeared for seven years. Since then, I think he’s finished in the top-10 in every single tournament he’s played (don’t fact-check me). He also won The Players Championship in 2012.

The 38-year old has eight top-10s in majors and seven PGA Tour wins. Fact of the matter is, he doesn’t find the winner circle very often, but plays really steady no matter the course or weather.

Give me a choice to finish top-10, it’s Kuchar. Give me a guy to win? It’s not Kuchar.

Belongs: Branden Grace

U.S. Open - Final Round

Why he belongs: Grace is 28, and he already should have won a major. More specifically, he should have won the 2015 U.S. Open at Chambers Bay. He fanned one on No. 16 out of bounds all but ending his chance at victory, which still drives me crazy. Keep that in bounds, birdie the relatively easy par-5 18th and it’s probably over — or at least he’s in a playoff. Aside from that, Grace also has three other top-5s in majors.

He’s a stud who has one PGA Tour win and seven European Tour wins. In terms of being surprised he doesn’t have a major, I would say very. But he’s still young and entering his prime years. If he ends up without a major that shows how difficult major championship golf is, not Grace’s shortcomings as a golfer.

Doesn’t Belong: Bill Haas

Why he doesn’t belong: Haas has just one top-10 in the majors. Yes, the 34-year old has six PGA Tour wins, but he simply hasn’t been in a realistic position to win a major yet.

Belongs: Paul Casey

Why he belongs: Another great amateur who was destined for greatness, especially while at Arizona State University. And you know what, he put together a great professional career… just not in the United States. He’s won 13 times on the European Tour, but just once on the PGA Tour (2009 Shell Houston Open in a playoff, and he lost in two other playoffs).

Aside from The Masters, where he always seems to be a factor at some point over the weekend, his game just hasn’t fared well at the U.S. Open and PGA Championships. With that being said, I wouldn’t blink twice if Casey won The Open this year. Well, I’d blink a lot, but it’s just a phrase.

Problem is, at 39, time isn’t on his side.

Doesn’t Belong: J.B. Holmes

World Golf Championships-Mexico Championship - Round Three

Why he doesn’t belong: When Holmes needed brain surgery in 2011, then needed more surgery after realizing he was allergic to the adhesive used, he was more likely to end up on a list of potential greats who’s career ended short, not a list of best golfers without a major. So I must say I’m ecstatic to even bring him up in this argument.

Holmes played 26 events in 2012 but no majors, and played only 6 events (no majors) in 2013. Before that, he played in only 13 majors. In 2015, however, he recorded a T4 at The Masters and solo third at The Open.

I can’t say that I’m surprised the 34-year-old hasn’t won a major, simply for the fact he hasn’t been in the position to win enough. But he has fearlessness off the tee and a long ball that’s simply unmatched on Tour. He’s an extremely skilled Tour player, and if he stays healthy, he will win a major. I’m not surprised he has zero at the time being, but if you tell me in five years he hasn’t won yet, I’ll probably slap you in the face.

Belongs: Ian Poulter

Why he belongs: Devastating Ryder Cupper. Great PGA Tour pro. He has 12 European Tour wins and two PGA Tour wins. He also has eight top-10s, including a solo-second at the 2008 Open (albeit four strokes behind Padraig).

Poulter has always been a reliable ball striker and has knack for draining the big putt. I think he was always so easy to root against, especially for Americans, that we didn’t want to give him proper credit for his skill and competitiveness. I’m legitimately shocked he never got the job done and ripped out the hearts of U.S. golf fans everywhere. But at 41, a major victory now just seems unlikely. He doesn’t hit it particularly long, but maybe he can sneak out an Open Championship victory before it’s over.

Doesn’t Belong: Patrick Reed

Why he doesn’t belong: Reed is ranked No. 14 in the world and has all but backed up his infamous “top 5” interview with 5 PGA Tour wins — including The Barclays at major-championship venue Bethpage Black. He’s also already proven himself as an opponent to be terrified of at the Ryder Cup. But at 26, he’s yet to record a top-10 in a major. He’s the type of competitor, however, that you expect to win if he’s in the final group of a major on Sunday. He just has to put himself in the position.

In my opinion, he’ll win multiple majors and continue to haunt European Ryder Cup fans for years to come. But should he have a major trophy or Green Jacket already? Not yet.

Belongs: Brandt Snedeker

The Masters - Round Two

Why he belongs: The fact Brandt Snedeker hasn’t won a major is beyond me. He’s had three top-10 finishes at Augusta, four top-10s in the U.S. Open and a T3 at The Open. He’s long been regarded as the best, or one of the best putters on tour. He’s also a superb ball striker, and seems to have a fairly even keel that’s beneficial in the majors.

He’s 36, has eight PGA Tour victories and one European Tour win. He also won the 2012 FedEx Cup. But no majors. You have to imagine his putter will heat up so hot that he wins one before it’s said and done.

Doesn’t Belong: Brooks Koepka

Shriners Hospitals For Children Open - Round Two

Why he doesn’t belong: If someone wants to say they’re surprised Koepka hasn’t won yet, I’ll entertain their argument. But the fact is, he’s 26 and only has one PGA Tour victory. Yes, he has four top-10s in majors, but let the kid get his major championship legs under him, OK? Let him learn how to win out there, struggle a bit in some final groups in the majors and see what happens.

Closing Thoughts

This whole argument reminds me of a quote from the movie Social Network. Mark Zuckerberg’s character turns to the Winklevoss twins and says, “If you were the inventors of Facebook, you’d have invented Facebook.” Savage quote, but it relates to what we’re talking about here; if a player is truly good enough to have won a major already, he’d have won a major already.

I also wanted to mention the following two names so I could prove I didn’t forget about them. If anyone can make an argument for saying they’re legitimately surprised they haven’t won a major yet at this point in their career, have at it.

Justin Thomas
  • 23 years old
  • 4 PGA Tour wins
  • 0 major top-10s
Jon Rahm
  • 22 years old
  • 1 PGA Tour win
  • Has participated in three majors

Lastly, if Anthony Kim still played golf and he didn’t win a major by now, he’d lead the list. No one golfed their ball harder.

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He played on the Hawaii Pacific University Men's Golf team and earned a Masters degree in Communications. He also played college golf at Rutgers University, where he graduated with a Bachelor of Arts in Journalism.

45 Comments

45 Comments

  1. Tal

    Apr 15, 2017 at 8:18 pm

    It’s not like we’re talking about the best players without a triple double here. There are only 4 majors per year, so there’s no surprise that many haven’t won one.

    The reason this title fit for Sergio is because his game and otherworldly abilities showcased how hard winning a major is. He alone (after Monty’s retirement) held the title of best player without a major. DJ and possibly Day were in the same conversation but not at the same level as their time felt like it was still coming. Sergio was always knocking on the door but never made it across the threshold. No one else on your list or any other list comes close to this status.

    Maybe your main classification should be players who have had the opportunity (or multiple) to win one but let it slip through their fingers. For example, Poulter came 2nd in The Open, but he didn’t push Harrington or really contend so I don’t think he belongs anywhere near this list and that is me speaking as a European RC fan.

  2. pk2015

    Apr 14, 2017 at 6:16 am

    Poulter??? C’mon… He folds on Sunday when it’s time to close the deal. He’ll never win a major much less keep his card. Web.com here’s your newest recruit. Oh and the “who’s the most overrated player” poll they did with the pros was spot on about him and not Rickie. Rickie will win a major.

  3. Forsbrand

    Apr 13, 2017 at 10:57 am

    I’ve said it time and time again, this list or the the Question Who is the best player not to have won a major?” Is totally useless. IF you are good enough to win a major you would have won one. People that come top ten in majors are consistent but maybe they’ve played out of their skin to finish top ten. You could have Rory or Phil play average and still top ten.

    When john Daly won his first major he was head and shoulders above the rest of the field, a seriously naturly talented player, probably never knew how good he actually was at the time maybe.

    • Devilsadvocate

      Apr 13, 2017 at 5:28 pm

      Strong disagree… there have been PLENY of players good enough to win a major that never won one. There are so many variables through 72 holes it’s ridiculous. Your basically saying the winners of majors are the only ones good enough to win majors. If that was the case then why did they even hold the competition? Was Sergio “not good enough” to win unroll this masters? Then he magically he came good enough? No he was always good enough it just didn’t happen until this year. To say he wasn’t good enough before is incorrect IMHO

      • Forsbrand

        Apr 14, 2017 at 11:47 am

        Sergio always plenty good enough on paper but lacked patience he is now a major winner. Look at Greg Norman should have won far more majors and was beaten by chip ins or holed bunker shots maybe or maybe he just finished poorly or pressed self destruct button (happened on at least two occasions in the masters).

        Occasionally we’ll see surprise major champions, calcavechia and clink to name two guys who were consistent but got lucky ( Greg Norman gifted it to calc and Watson gifted it to cink)

        It’s ok to disagree

      • The Real Swanson

        Apr 15, 2017 at 2:31 am

        Garcia has openly said perhaps he wasn’t good enough, particularly around Augusta, but a change in personal circumstances has made a big difference to him.

        • Forsbrand

          Apr 15, 2017 at 9:32 am

          Absolutely feeling sorry for himself he gave this interview a few years back. But getting is life / golf balance right means now he is a serious major winner.

          Always plenty good enough but a poor accepter of missed putts. Best bunker player you’ll ever see!

  4. Bret

    Apr 13, 2017 at 12:31 am

    It’s Monty and it isn’t even close.

  5. Canadian Boy

    Apr 12, 2017 at 11:45 pm

    Well at least u got one right: Rickie Fowler. PR machine, but still only 4 wins to his name. Overrated!

    • KK

      Apr 15, 2017 at 9:52 am

      Why do you care about his PR? That’s for the kids. 4 wins and top 5 in every major before age 30 is a very good PGA career. If Rickie can get two majors in the next 15 years, he will be in the HOF.

  6. Devilsadvocate

    Apr 12, 2017 at 7:18 pm

    Your personal bias is showing on some of these. Rickie has a weird swing so he doesn’t belong but Ryan Moore having a weird move makes him a savant? Lol c’mon now…

    • Chester

      Apr 12, 2017 at 10:40 pm

      This article should be titled “Guys who I think will win a major”.

  7. The Real Swanson

    Apr 12, 2017 at 6:44 pm

    Monty and Westwood are the only valid ‘belongs’ in this list due to length of career, number of tour wins and number of near misses.

    All the others are either too young, their time may come, generally actually aren’t that good, I’m thinking Poulter and Donald, or their majors performance is too poor. How does someone with T9 as a best major performance even get into this article.

    Shank off a cliff into a volcano.

  8. Kisner's caddy's calves

    Apr 12, 2017 at 6:20 pm

    Biggest “shank” article of the year …

  9. Brian

    Apr 12, 2017 at 1:34 pm

    Hope Luke Donald can turn his career around. Such a pretty swing and a decent guy to boot.

  10. Tom54

    Apr 12, 2017 at 1:33 pm

    Maybe being on the list of best not to win a major not such a bad thing in the long haul. List of 1 time major winners is full of people who never fulfilled expectations after finally getting a major. I agree with wondering about Ian Poulter on the list. Never recall him even contending in a major. Westwood and Montgomery for sure were on that list. I would prob put Fowler and Matsayama as ones to want to quickly get off that list asap

  11. Brian

    Apr 12, 2017 at 1:32 pm

    Maybe watch the Ryder Cup some day?

    • Steve

      Apr 12, 2017 at 2:40 pm

      Why? Pretty much all those guys are playing (and winning/contending) on the PGA Tour every week, not the European Tour… You’re kind of proving his point…

      • The Real Swanson

        Apr 12, 2017 at 6:50 pm

        He said Europeans not European tour players. I agree that these days the European tour is generally second rate, mostly due to it all being on Sky. No one watches any more.

        • Steve

          Apr 12, 2017 at 8:14 pm

          He clearly meant European Tour players.
          “Q school failures are stars over there”
          “Why should a player should have won a major playing weaker fields and slower greens”
          “Face it, someone has to win the “beneath Web.com” tournament they just get world record points for traveling.”
          Everything clearly points to him talking about the European Tour, not European players in general…

        • Forsbrand

          Apr 16, 2017 at 3:56 am

          Sky really is second rate, I blame the loss of The British Open / The Open from BBC to Sky as the reason less people play or follow golf 🙂

  12. Tourgrinder

    Apr 12, 2017 at 12:21 pm

    Lee Westwood isn’t just a questionable putter. He’s a fairly awful putter when the pressure gets ratcheted up. On top of that, he has a mediocre chipping and short game. He’s always been on leaderboards because of tee-to-green game. Nice guy, but he’s never going to win the Masters or any other major with a game so suspect around and on the greens. Ian Poulter? If it wasn’t for a couple Ryder Cups where his putter suddenly started channeling mid-60s Jack Nicklaus, it’s possible nobody would even know exactly who Ian Poulter is. Paul Casey — (not an American hater, btw!) — has game to win any major. Ian Poulter has a good agent and very good publicity guy.

    • Jack Nash

      Apr 12, 2017 at 12:52 pm

      “Fairly Awful Putter”? I think you’re giving him too much credit.

      • Forsbrand

        Apr 13, 2017 at 11:04 am

        Ha ha ha love that call!

        Can’t believe some folk believe Westwood and Monty. They had there time and either didn’t take advantage of the situation or we’re just beaten by a much better player, or of course as Tom Watson would say, just lost their bottle.

        RC doesn’t mean anything it’s matchplay, no score card, so until there is a major with matchplay features then it doesn’t count for anything.

        • The Real Swanson

          Apr 15, 2017 at 2:43 am

          I fully agree that ultimately they are both poor under pressure, but Westwood was in the fifth from last group last week, so ‘had their time’ (you had a typo), isn’t completely true in his case. I also agree with your earlier comment that these sort of articles are meaningless.

  13. Dat

    Apr 12, 2017 at 11:26 am

    Trash list.

  14. Mike Honcho

    Apr 12, 2017 at 11:24 am

    No one golfed their ball harder than Anthony Kim. That may be the funniest golf related statement I’ve ever heard. Well outside of people thinking Tad Fujikawa could ever make it to the show or Michelle Wie’s parents signing her up for men’s events.

  15. Jamie hall

    Apr 12, 2017 at 11:22 am

    Webb Simpson needs to be added to worst golfers to win a major list

  16. TCJ

    Apr 12, 2017 at 11:19 am

    The only thing missing from this terrible article is listing Bryson DeChambeau as “belongs”.

  17. Matt

    Apr 12, 2017 at 10:49 am

    Agree that this article is pretty awful. Totally incoherent at times. Mentioning Jon Rahm has a monkey on his back (or will soon) in the opening paragraph. What on earth is this guy talking about. “No one golfed his ball harder.” Who talks like this?

  18. Gordy

    Apr 12, 2017 at 10:17 am

    If I were to honestly evaluate this list and say that none of these are elite golfers in my opinion. Rickie and Lee are the only ones who have the talent with some career accomplishments that make you scratch your head and wonder why they haven’t won. Sergio was in my opinion the last great golfer who couldn’t win one.

  19. Bob

    Apr 12, 2017 at 10:14 am

    Lol. You say media members shouldn’t make arbitrary lists but then you go and do the exact same thing. Just because you are asking the incredibly vague question of “How surprised am I…?” doesn’t make your list any better than the others. You are all over the board with your logic too. Bringing up how nice a guys swings is and if they exceeded your personal expectations for them are two of the worst ways to judge someone. You also give credit to some guys for having wins on both tours but not Fowler. Just terrible.

  20. Jonny B

    Apr 12, 2017 at 9:38 am

    Casey and Poulter? You have to be joking. One glaringly obvious neglect: Monty. Dude belongs at the top of this list.

    Kudos for mentioning Kim. I followed the dude in a couple tournaments and still remember he hit it amazingly. Like Tiger-esque.

    Now you know what would be really fun… let’s have a list of worst players with a major. My picks: Keegan, Bradley, Willet. Ready set go.

    • God Shamgod

      Apr 12, 2017 at 10:11 am

      Agree on Monty. He was an exceptional player who just couldn’t get it done. I think Westwood will end up the same.

      Worst major winners? Bradley and Willet aren’t in the top 10.

      Beem
      Micheel
      Ian Baker Finch
      Larry Mize
      Lawrie
      Grady
      Steve Jones

  21. Desmond

    Apr 12, 2017 at 9:20 am

    Poulter is kind of done. Hot putter in RC and flashy tartans does not make for a potential major winner.

  22. Keith

    Apr 12, 2017 at 9:17 am

    Colin Montgomerie and it’s not even very close.

    • Bob

      Apr 12, 2017 at 10:25 am

      It’s best current golfer… I thought this was obvious.

      • Matt

        Apr 12, 2017 at 10:56 am

        Its clearly not just best current golfer… Ian Poulter is on the list. And if it was best current golfer without a major the author thinks Matsuyama is the best player in the whole article, but for some reason doesn’t belong. The criteria in this article changed with every player.

        • Steve

          Apr 12, 2017 at 1:04 pm

          Matsuyama “doesn’t belong” because he doesn’t have enough major championship experience YET. Reading is your friend…

          • Matt

            Apr 13, 2017 at 8:37 pm

            Pal… sorry you can’t understand complex points. If you want to call that complex. Its highlighting that there was no criteria for the article. The fellow who I replied to stated “best current golfer.” The author states Matsuyama is the best player on the list, yet doesn’t belong… because he’s too young. Ok… so best actively playing golfer is not the criteria. Sooo best resume who hasn’t won one I presume??? Nope Monty can’t be on the list because its best current golfer. Ok, back to square one. Whats the criteria?

        • Bob

          Apr 12, 2017 at 1:29 pm

          Poulter still plays on both tours. I’m not agreeing that Poulter should be anywhere on the “Belongs” list but he’s still playing at least.

  23. Steve

    Apr 12, 2017 at 9:03 am

    Andrew Tursky,

    Your credibility as an editor is questionable for even mentioning Ian Poulter as a BELONGS!!!

  24. Steve

    Apr 12, 2017 at 8:54 am

    Paul “I hate America” Casey hasn’t won on the PGA Toir since 2009 and has 1 win in 208 PGA Tour tournaments. He doesn’t belong on any “best of” list.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Valspar Championship betting preview: Elite ballstrikers to thrive at Copperhead

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The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2024 Valspar Championship.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermudagrass greens overseeded with POA. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 16, 17 and 18 — also known as the “Snake Pit” — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.

The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. The field this week is solid and is a major improvement over last year’s field that felt the impact of players skipping due to a handful of “signature events” in a short span of time. 

Past Winners at Valspar Championship

  • 2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
  • 2022: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
  • 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
  • 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
  • 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
  • 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Copperhead

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can’t be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)

  1. Tony Finau (+.90)
  2. Nick Taylor (+.81)
  3. Justin Thomas (+.77)
  4. Greyson Sigg (+.69)
  5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+.67)

2. Good Drive %

The long hitters can be a bit limited here due to the tree-lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important, but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.

Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+91.3%) 
  2. Zach Johnson (+91.1%)
  3. Sam Ryder (+90.5%)
  4. Ryan Moore (+90.4%)
  5. Aaron Rai (+89.7%)

3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1.32)
  2. Keith Mitchell (+1.29)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.24)
  4. Cameron Young (+1.17) 
  5. Doug Ghim (+.95)

4. Bogey Avoidance

With the conditions likely to be difficult, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, oftentimes the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.

Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.

Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+9.0)
  2. Xander Schauffele (+9.3)
  3. Austin Cook (+9.7) 
  4. Chesson Hadley (+10.0)
  5. Greyson Sigg (+10.2)

5. Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions

Conditions will be tough this week at Copperhead. I am looking for golfers who can rise to the occasion if the course plays as difficult as it has in the past.

Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1,71) 
  2. Min Woo Lee (+1.39)
  3. Cameron Young (+1.27)
  4. Jordan Spieth (+1.08)
  5. Justin Suh (+.94)

6. Course History

That statistic will tell us which players have played well at Copperhead in the past.

Course History Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+3.75) 
  2. Sam Burns (+2.49)
  3. Davis Riley (+2.33)
  4. Matt NeSmith (+2.22)
  5. Jordan Spieth (+2.04)

The Valspar Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Good Drive % (15%), SG: BS (20%), Bogeys Avoided (13%), Course History (13%) Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions (12%).

  1. Xander Schauffele
  2. Doug Ghim
  3. Victor Perez
  4. Greyson Sigg
  5. Ryan Moore
  6. Tony Finau
  7. Justin Thomas
  8. Sam Ryder
  9. Sam Burns
  10. Lucas Glover

2024 Valspar Championship Picks

Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)

Justin Thomas will be disappointed with his finish at last week’s PLAYERS Championship, as the past champion missed the cut despite being in some decent form heading into the event. Despite the missed cut, JT hit the ball really well. In his two rounds, the two-time major champion led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach per round.

Thomas has been up and down this season. He’s missed the cut in two “signature events” but also has finishes of T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T6 at the Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am and T3 at the American Express. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in the field.

Thomas loves Copperhead. In his last three tries at the course, he’s finished T13, T3 and T10. Thomas would have loved to get a win at a big event early in the season, but avoidable mistakes and a balky putter have cost him dearly. I believe a trip to a course he loves in a field he should be able to capitalize on is the right recipe for JT to right the ship.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (FanDuel)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is playing spectacular golf in the 2024 season. He finished 2nd at the American Express, T20 at Pebble Beach and T24 at the Genesis Invitational before finishing T13 at last week’s PLAYERS Championship.

In his past 24 rounds, the South African ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 26th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. Bezuidenhout managed to work his way around TPC Sawgrass last week with minimal damage. He only made five bogeys in the entire week, which is a great sign heading into a difficult Copperhead this week.

Bezuidenhout is winless in his PGA Tour career, but certainly has the talent to win on Tour. His recent iron play tells me that this week could be a breakthrough for the 35-year-old who has eyes on the President’s Cup.

Doug Ghim +8000 (FanDuel)

Doug Ghim has finished in the top-16 of his past five starts. Most recently, Ghim finished T16 at The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field.

In his past 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 5th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. In terms of his fit for Copperhead, the 27-year-old ranks 12th in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions, making him a great fit for the course.

Ghim has yet to win on Tour, but at one point he was the top ranked Amateur golfer in the world and played in the 2017 Arnold Palmer Cup and 2017 Walker Cup. He then won the Ben Hogan award for the best male college golfer in 2018. He certainly has the talent, and there are signals aplenty that his talent in ready to take him to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour.

Sepp Straka +8000 (BetRivers)

Sepp Straka is a player who’s shown he has the type of game that can translate to a difficult Florida golf course. The former Presidents Cup participant won the 2022 Honda Classic in tough conditions and should thrive with a similar test at Copperhead.

It’s been a slow 2024 for Straka, but his performance last week at the PLAYERS Championship surely provides some optimism. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach as well as 1.88 strokes off the tee. The tee-to-green game Straka showed on a course with plenty of danger demonstrates that he can stay in control of his golf ball this week.

It’s possible that the strong performance last week was an outlier, but I’m willing to bet on a proven winner in a weaker field at a great number.

Victor Perez +12000 (FanDuel)

Victor Perez is no stranger to success in professional golf. The Frenchman has three DP World Tour wins including a Rolex Series event. He won the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, as well as the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which are some big events.

Perez earned his PGA Tour card this season and enters the week playing some fantastic golf. He finished in a tie for 16th in Florida at the Cognizant Classic and then tied for third in his most recent start at the Puerto Rico Open.

In his past 24 rounds in the field, Perez ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 1oth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Good Drive % and 15th in Bogey Avoidance.

Perez comes in as a perfect fit for Copperhead and offers serious value at triple-digit odds.

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Opinion & Analysis

Myrtle Beach, Explored: February in South Carolina

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As I gain in experience and age, and familiarity breeds neither contempt nor disdain, I understand why people return to a place. A destination like Myrtle Beach offers a sizable supply and diversity of restaurants, entertainment venues, and shops that are predicated on the tenets of the service industry. Greet your customers with a smile and a kind word, and they will find comfort and assurance. Provide them with a memorable experience and they will suggest your place of business to others.

My first tour of Myrtle Beach took place in the mid-1980s, and consisted of one course: Gator Hole. I don’t remember much from that day, and since Gator Hole closed a decade later, I cannot revisit it to recollect what I’d lost. Since then, I’ve come to the Grand Strand a few times, and been fortunate to never place a course more than once. I’ve seen the Strantz courses to the south and dipped my toe in the North Carolina courses of Calabash. I’ve been to many in the middle, including Dunes, Pine Lakes, Grande Dunes among them.

2024 brought a quartet of new courses, including two at the Barefoot Resort. I’d heard about the North Myrtle Beach four-pack of courses that highlight the Barefoot property, including layouts from Pete Dye, Tom Fazio, Davis Love III, and Greg Norman. I had the opportunity to play and shoot the Dye and Fazio tracks, which means that I’ll have to return to see the other two. Sandwiched between them were the TPC-Myrtle Beach course, also from Tom Fazio, and the Pawley’s Plantation trace, by the hand of Jack Nicklaus. I anticipated a bit of the heroic, and bit of the strategic, and plenty of eye candy. None of those architects would ever be considered a minimalist, so there would be plenty of in-play and out-of-play bunkers and mounds to tantalize the senses.

My nephew arrived a few days early, to screen a few more courses. As a result, you the reader will have an extra quarter of mini-reviews, bringing the total of courses in this piece to eight. It was inconceivable that CJR would play four courses that I had never played nor photographed, but that was the case. His words appear at the end of this piece. We hope that you enjoy the tour.

Main Feature: Two Barefoots, a TPC, and Pawley’s Plantation

Barefoot Dye

What Paul “Pete” Dye brought back from his trips to the United Kingdom, hearkened back to what C.B. MacDonal did, some 65 years prior. There is a way of finding bunkers and fairways, and even green sites, that does not require major industrial work. The Dye course at Barefoot Resorts takes you on a journey over the rumpled terrain of distant places. If there’s one element missing, it’s the creased and turbulent fairways, so often found in England and Ireland. The one tenet of playing a Dye course, is to always aim away from temptation, from where your eyes draw you. Find the safe side of the target, and you’ll probably find your ball. It then stands that you will have a shot for your next attempt. Cut the corner, and you might have need to reload. The Barefoot course begins gently, in terms of distance, but challenges with visual deception. After two brief 4s and a 3, the real work begins. The course is exposed enough, to allow the coastal winds to dance along the fairways. Be ready to keep the ball low and take an extra club or two.

TPC-Myrtle Beach

If memory serves, TPCMB is my first trek around a TPC-branded course. It had all the trappings of a tour course, from the welcome, through the clubhouse, to the practice facilities and, of course, the course. TPC-Myrtle Beach is a Tom Fazio design, and if you never visit Augusta National, you’ll now have an idea of what it is like. You play Augusta’s 16th hole twice at TPCMB, and you enjoy it both times. Fazio really likes the pond-left, green-angle-around par three hole, and his two iterations of it are memorable.

You’ll also see those Augusta bunkers, the ones with the manicured edges that drop into a modestly-circular form. What distinguishes these sand pits is the manner in which they rise from the surrounding ground. They are unique in that they don’t resemble the geometric bunkering of a Seth Raynor, nor the organic pits found in origin courses. They are built, make no mistake, and recovery from them is manageable for all levels of bunker wizardry.

Barefoot Fazio

If you have the opportunity to play the two Tom Fazio courses back to back, you’ll notice a marked difference in styling. Let me digress for a moment, then circle back with an explanation. It was written that the NLE World Woods course designed by Fazio, Pine Barrens, was an homage to Pine Valley, the legendary, New Jersey club where Fazio is both a member and the architect on retainer. The Pine Barrens course was plowed under in 2022, so the homage no longer exists. At least, I didn’t think that it existed, until I played his Barefoot Resort course in North Myrtle Beach.

Pine Valley might be described as an aesthetic of scrub and sand. There are mighty, forced carries to travers, along with sempiternal, sandy lairs to avoid. Barefoot Fazio is quite similar. If you’re not faced with a forced carry, you’ll certainly contend with a fairway border or greenside necklace of sand. When you reach the 13th tee, you’ll face a drive into a fairway, and you might see a distant green, with a notable absence: flagstick. The 13th is the icing on the homage cake, a callout of the 8th hole at Pine Valley. Numero Ocho at the OG has two greens, side by side, and they change the manner in which the hole plays (so they say.) At Barefoot Fazio, the right-side green is a traditional approach, with an unimpeded run of fairway to putting surface. The left-side green (the one that I was fortunate to play) demands a pitch shot over a wasteland. It’s a fitting tribute for the rest of us to play.

Be certain to parrot the starter, Leon’s, advice, and play up a deck of tees. Barefoot Fazio offers five par-three holes, so the fours and fives play that much longer. Remember, too, that you are on vacation. Why not treat yourself to some birdie looks?

Pawley’s Plantation

The Jack Nicklaus course at Pawley’s Plantation emerged from a period of hibernation in 2024. The greens were torn up and their original contours were restored. Work was overseen by Troy Vincent, a member of the Nicklaus Architecture team. In addition, the putting corridors were reseeded with a hardier, dwarf bermuda that has experienced great success, all along the Grand Strand that is Myrtle Beach.

My visit allowed me to see the inward half first, and I understand why the resort wishes to conclude your day on those holes. The front nine of Pawley’s Plantation works its way through familiar, low country trees and wetlands. The back nine begins in similar fashion, then makes its way east, toward the marsh that separates mainland from Pawley’s Island. Recalling the powerful sun of that Wednesday morning, any round beginning on the second nine would face collateral damage from the warming star. Much better to hit holes 11 to close when the sun is higher in the sky.

The marshland holes (12 through 17) are spectacular in their raw, unprotected nature. The winds off the Atlantic are unrelenting and unforgiving, and the twin, par-three holes will remain in your memory banks for time’s march. In typical Golden Bear fashion, a majority of his putting targets are smallish in nature, reflecting his appreciation for accurate approach shots. Be sure to find the forgiving side of each green, and err to that portion. You’ll be grateful.

Bonus Coverage: Myrtlewood, Beechwood, Arrowhead, and King’s North

Arrowhead (Raymond Floyd and Tom Jackson)

A course built in the middle of a community, water threatens on most every hole. The Cypress 9 provides a few holes forcing a carried drive then challenge you with water surrounding the green. On Waterway, a drivable 2nd hole will tempt most, so make sure the group ahead has cleared the green.

Myrtlewood (Edmund Alt and Arthur Hills) and Beechwood (Gene Hamm)

A middle of the winter New Englander’s paradise. Wide open fairways, zero blind shots and light rough allow for shaking off the rust and plenty of forgiveness. A plethora of dog legs cause one to be cautious with every tee shot. Won’t break the bank nor the scorecard.

King’s North @ Myrtle Beach National (Arnold Palmer)

A signature Arnold Palmer course, waste areas, island greens and daring tee shots. Highlighted by the 4th hole Par 5 Gambler hole, if you can hit the smaller fairway on the left you are rewarded with a short approach to get to the green in 2. The back 9 is highlighted by an island green par 3 and a finisher with over 40 bunkers spread throughout. A challenge for any golfer.
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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Players Championship betting preview: Pete Dye specialists ready to pass tough TPC Sawgrass test

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The PGA Tour heads to TPC Sawgrass to play in one of the most prestigious and important events of the season: THE PLAYERS Championship. Often referred to as the fifth major, the importance of a PLAYERS victory to the legacy of a golfer can’t be overlooked.

TPC Sawgrass is a par-72 measuring 7,245 yards and featuring Bermudagrass greens. Golfers must be patient in attacking this Pete Dye course.

With trouble lurking at every turn, the strokes can add up quickly. With a par-5 16th that is a true risk-reward hole and the famous par-3 17th island green, the only safe bet at TPC Sawgrass is a bet on an exciting finish.

THE PLAYERS Championship field is often referred to as the strongest field of the year — and with good reason. There are 144 in the field, including 43 of the world’s top 50 players in the OWGR. Tiger Woods will not be playing in the event.

THE PLAYERS is an exceptionally volatile event that has never seen a back-to-back winner.

Past Winners at TPC Sawgrass

  • 2023: Scottie Scheffler (-17)
  • 2022: Cameron Smith (-13)
  • 2021: Justin Thomas (-14)
  • 2019: Rory McIlroy (-16)
  • 2018: Webb Simpson (-18)
  • 2017: Si-Woo Kim (-10)
  • 2016: Jason Day (-15)
  • 2015: Rickie Fowler (-12)In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

5 Key Stats for TPC Sawgrass

Let’s take a look at five metrics key for TPC Sawgrass to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach has historically been far and away the most important and predictive stat at THE PLAYERS Championship. With water everywhere, golfers can’t afford to be wild with their iron shots. Not only is it essential to avoid the water, but it will also be as important to go after pins and make birdies because scores can get relatively low.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.37) 
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.20)
  3. Tony Finau (+0.99)
  4. Jake Knapp (+0.83)
  5. Shane Lowry (+0.80)

2. Total Driving

This statistic is perfect for TPC Sawgrass. Historically, driving distance hasn’t been a major factor, but since the date switch to March, it’s a bit more significant. During this time of year, the ball won’t carry quite as far, and the runout is also shorter.

Driving accuracy is also crucial due to all of the trouble golfers can get into off of the tee. Therefore, players who are gaining on the field with Total Driving will put themselves in an ideal spot this week.

Total Driving Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Rory McIlroy (22)
  2. Akshay Bhatia (25)
  3. Keith Mitchell (25) 
  4. Adam Hadwin (34)
  5. Sam Burns (+39)

3. Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye Designs

TPC Sawgrass may be Pete Dye’s most famous design, and for good reason. The course features Dye’s typical shaved runoff areas and tricky green complexes.  Pete Dye specialists love TPC Sawgrass and should have a major advantage this week.

SG: Total (Pete Dye) per round over past 36 rounds:

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+2.02)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.90)
  3. Min Woo Lee (+1.77) 
  4. Sungjae Im (+1.72)
  5. Brian Harman (+1.62) 

4. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Prototypical ball-strikers have dominated TPC Sawgrass. With past winners like Sergio Garcia, Henrik Stenson, Webb Simpson, Rory McIlroy and Justin Thomas, it’s evident that golfers must be striking it pure to contend at THE PLAYERS.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.02)
  2. Tony Finau (+1.51)
  3. Tom Hoge (+1.48)
  4. Keith Mitchell (+1.38)
  5. Will Zalatoris (+1.18)

5. Par 5 Average

Par-5 average is extremely important at TPC Sawgrass. With all four of the Par-5s under 575 yards, and three of them under 540 yards, a good amount of the scoring needs to come from these holes collectively.

Par 5 Average Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Scottie Schefler (+4.31)
  2. Erik Van Rooyen (+4.35)
  3. Doug Ghim (+4.34)
  4. Wyndham Clark (+4.34)
  5. Matt Fitzpatrick (+4.31)

6. Strokes Gained: Florida

We’ve used this statistic over the past few weeks, and I’d like to incorporate some players who do well in Florida into this week’s model as well. 

Strokes Gained: Florida over past 30 rounds:

  1. Scottie Schefler (+2.43)
  2. Erik Van Rooyen (+1.78)
  3. Doug Ghim (+1.78)
  4. Wyndham Clark (+1.73)
  5. Matt Fitzpatrick (+1.69)

7. Strokes Gained: Total on Courses with High Water Danger

With water everywhere at TPC Sawgrass, the blow-up potential is high. It can’t hurt to factor in some players who’ve avoided the “eject” button most often in the past. 

Strokes Gained: Total on Courses with High Water Danger over past 30 rounds:

  1. Scottie Schefler (+2.08)
  2. Rory McIlroy (+1.82)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.62)
  4. Patrick Cantlay (+1.51)
  5. Will Zalatoris (+1.49)

THE PLAYERS Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (25%), Total Driving (20%), SG: Total Pete Dye (14%), SG: Ball-striking (15%) SG: Par 5 (8%), SG: Florida (10%) and SG: High Water (8%).

  1. Scottie Scheffler 
  2. Shane Lowry 
  3. Tony Finau 
  4. Corey Conners
  5. Keith Mitchell
  6. Justin Thomas
  7. Will Zalatoris
  8. Xander Schauffele
  9. Cameron Young
  10. Doug Ghim
  11. Sam Burns 
  12. Chris Kirk
  13. Collin Morikawa
  14. Si Woo Kim
  15. Wyndham Clark

2024 THE PLAYERS Championship Picks

(All odds at the time of writing)

Patrick Cantlay +2500 (DraftKings):

Patrick Cantlay is winless since the 2022 BMW Championship but is undoubtedly one of the most talented players on the PGA Tour. Since the win at Wilmington Country Club, the 31-year-old has twelve top-10 finishes on Tour and is starting to round into form for the 2024 season.

Cantlay has done well in the most recent “signature” events this season, finishing 4th at Riviera for the Genesis Invitational and 12th at Bay Hill for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. The former Tour Championship winner resides in Jupiter, Florida and has played some good golf in the state, including finishing in a tie for 4th at the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational. His history at TPC Sawgrass has been up and down, but his best career start at The PLAYERS came last year when he finished in a tie for 19th.

Cantlay absolutely loves Pete Dye designed courses and ranks 1st in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on Dye tracks in his past 36 rounds. In recent years, he’s been excellent at both the RBC Heritage and the Travelers Championship. TPC Sawgrass is a place where players will have to be dialed in with their irons and distance off the tee won’t be quite as important. In his past 24, rounds, Cantlay ranks in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach.

Despite being winless in recent years, I still believe Cantlay is capable of winning big tournaments. As one of the only United States players to bring their best game to Marco Simone for the Ryder Cup, I have conviction that the former top amateur in the world can deliver when stakes are high.

Will Zalatoris +3000 (FanDuel):

In order to win at TPC Sawgrass, players will need to be in total control of their golf ball. At the moment, Will Zalatoris is hitting it as well as almost anyone and finally has the putter cooperating with his new switch to the broomstick style.

Zalatoris is coming off back-to-back starts where he absolutely striped the ball. He finished 2nd at the Genesis Invitational and 4th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational where his statistics were eye opening. For the week at Bay Hill, Zal gained 5.0 strokes on approach and 5.44 strokes off the tee.

Throughout the early part of his career, Zalatoris has established himself by playing his best golf in the strongest fields with the most difficult conditions. A tough test will allow him to separate himself this week and breakthrough for a PLAYERS Championship victory.

Shane Lowry +4000 (DraftKings):

History has shown us that players need to be in good form to win the PLAYERS Championship and it’s hard to find anyone not named Scottie Scheffler who’s in better form that Shane Lowry at the moment. He finished T4 at the Cognizant Classic followed by a solo third place finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

The fact that the Irishman contended at Bay Hill is a great sign considering he’s really struggled there throughout his career. He will now head to a different style of course in Florida where he’s had a good deal of success. He finished 8th at TPC Sawgrass in 2021 and 13th in 2022. 

Lowry ranks 6th in the field in approach in his past 24 rounds, 7th in Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye designed courses in his last 30 rounds, 8th in par 5 scoring this season, and 4th in Strokes Gained: Total in Florida over his past 36 rounds.

Lowry is a player who’s capable of winning big events. He’s a major champion and won another premier event at Wentworth as well as a WGC at Firestone. He’s also a form player, when he wins it’s typically when he’s contended in recent starts. He’s been terrific thus far in Florida and he should get into contention once again this week.

Brian Harman +8000 (DraftKings):

(Note: Since writing this Harman’s odds have plummeted to 50-1. I would not advise betting the 50).

Brian Harman showed us last season that if the course isn’t extremely long, he has the accuracy both off the tee and with his irons to compete with anyone in the world. Last week at Bay Hill and was third in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, gaining 5.54 strokes on the field in the category.

In addition to the strong iron play, Harman also gained strokes off the tee in three of four rounds. He’s also had success at Pete Dye tracks recently. He finished 2nd at last year’s Travelers Championship and 7th at the RBC Heritage.

It would be a magnificent feat for Harman to win both the Open Championship and PLAYERS in a short time frame, but the reality is the PGA Tour isn’t quite as strong as it once was. Harman is a player who shows up for the biggest events and his odds seem way too long for his recent track record.

Tony Finau +6500 (FanDuel):

A few weeks ago, at the Genesis Invitational, I bet Hideki Matsuyama because I believed it to be a “bet the number” play at 80-1. I feel similarly about Finau this week. While he’s not having the season many people expected of him, he is playing better than these odds would indicate.

This season, Tony has a tied for 6th place finish at Torrey Pines, a tied for 19th at Riviera and tied for 13th at the Mexico Open. He’s also hitting the ball extremely well. In the field in his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Approach, 3rd in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Par 5 average and 15th in Total Driving.

Finau’s problem has been with the putter, which has been undeniably horrific. However, this week he will see a putting surface similar to the POA at TPC Scottsdale and PGA West, which he’s had a great deal of success on. It’s worth taking a stab at this price to see if he can have a mediocre week with the flat stick.

Sungjae Im +9000 (FanDuel):

It’s been a lackluster eighteen months for Sungjae, who once appeared to be a certain star. While his ceiling is absolutely still there, it’s been a while since we’ve seen Im play the type of golf expected of a player with his talent.

Despite the obvious concerns, the South Korean showed glimpses of a return to form last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He tied for 18th place and gained strokes off the tee, on approach, around the green and with the putter. When at his best, Im is a perfect course fit for TPC Sawgrass. He has remarkable precision off the tee, can get dialed in with his irons on shorter courses and can get up and down with the best players on Tour.

This number has gotten to the point where I feel comfortable taking a shot on it.

Billy Horschel +20000 (FanDuel):

Billy Horschel is a great fit on paper for TPC Sawgrass. He can get dialed in with his irons and his lack of distance off the tee won’t be a major detriment at the course. “Bermuda Billy” does his best work putting on Bermudagrass greens and he appears to be rounding into form just in time to compete at The PLAYERS.

In his most recent start, Billy finished in a tie for 9th at the Cognizant Classic and hit the ball extremely well. The former Florida Gator gained 3.32 strokes on approach and 2.04 strokes off the tee. If Horschel brings that type of ball striking to TPC Sawgrass, he has the type of putter who can win a golf tournament.

Horschel has been great on Pete Dye designed courses, with four of his seven career PGA Tour wins coming on Dye tracks.

In a season that has seen multiple long shots win big events, the 37-year-old is worth a stab considering his knack for playing in Florida and winning big events.

 

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