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Opinion & Analysis

Part 2: Taking Shaft Fitting from Guessing to Specifics

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How Should a Golfer Select the Right Shaft for His/Her Swing? 

One of the most common posts I see on GolfWRX is when one golfer asks other golfers for a shaft recommendation. These posts seldom say anything about a golfer’s swing characteristics, other than his or her handicap and sometimes a clubhead speed.

Invariably, many different shaft recommendations follow, but rarely is there a follow-up question to ask the golfer anything more about his or her particular swing characteristics.

Shafts do not perform the same way for all golfers. Shafts perform differently for different swing characteristics because different swing characteristics make shafts bend and twist differently. Most golfers are aware that their clubhead speed has relevance to what shaft they should play. But in addition to the clubhead speed, there are several other swing characteristics which determine how different shafts can and do perform differently for different golfers.

Shafts are in essence “dumb animals.” There is absolutely NO magic to the performance of a shaft. They ONLY do what their owner’s swing characteristics ordain them to do.

For some golfers, there is some additional performance contribution from the center of gravity location inside the clubhead. However, there are a lot of different variations in how golfers swing the club with respect to the specific swing characteristics that dictate how a shaft will perform. The whole idea of analyzing the swing characteristics that are pertinent to shaft performance is to allow us to have a way to systematically ELIMINATE shafts from consideration for a golfer, so what is left would be a smaller, manageable number of shafts with which each golfer could play.

The KEY elements of the golf swing in shaft fitting

1. Club Head Speed

The clubhead speed affords a basic, rudimentary, BEGINNING indication for the approximate overall amount of bending force a golfer may put on a shaft. However, it is very common for two golfers with the same clubhead speed to put totally different amounts of bending force on a shaft.

It is also common for two golfers who put the same bending force on a shaft to have different clubhead speeds. This is why a good shaft fitter has to analyze other characteristics of the golf swing to get more of an idea of how much bending force the golfer is putting on the shaft for his/her swing speed, when that bending force is being applied to the shaft and where on the shaft is the most bending force being applied.

Clubhead speed gives us a starting point to help us begin to narrow the choice of possible shafts for a golfer in the fitting process. But it only tells us a part of the story.

2. Downswing Transition Force

The force with which the golfer starts the downswing determines the initial bending force on the shaft. In other words, how much the shaft is initially “loaded” is chiefly determined by the golfer’s transition force to start the downswing.

Of two golfers with the same clubhead speed, the one with the stronger, more forceful transition will need a stiffer shaft (a shaft with a swing speed rating that is higher than the golfer’s swing speed). Of two golfers with the same clubhead speed, the one with the smoother, passive transition will need a more flexible shaft (a shaft with a lower clubhead speed rating than the golfer’s swing speed).

In addition, a golfer with a stronger transition typically is better fit into a HEAVIER weight shaft. A strong/forceful transition with a very light shaft can result in a swing tempo that gets too fast and too inconsistent, although it can be possible to use a higher than normal swingweight to allow a golfer with a strong transition to not get too quick when using a very light shaft.

3. Downswing Tempo/Downswing Aggressiveness

We said the transition force determines the INITIAL loading of the shaft. The downswing tempo determines how much that initial loading may change during the rest of the downswing before impact.

Tests we have performed with special sensors on the shaft reveal that it is extremely rare for a golfer to increase the loading of the shaft during the downswing. It is not very common for a golfer to maintain the same load on the shaft during the downswing, either. Almost every golfer loads the shaft the most at the beginning of the downswing, after which the loading on the shaft begins to decrease from the moment the transition turns into the downswing.

A good shaft fitter will analyze the downswing tempo to estimate if the golfer is maintaining their initial loading of the shaft, slightly losing some of the loading or substantially losing it. In more recent research, we have come to the belief that the transition and tempo blend together in terms of the golfer’s ability to put a bending force on the shaft and maintain it or not to the point of release. Hence the good shaft fitter will analyze the transition/tempo together in one overall observation to decide whether the golfer is an AGGRESSIVE HITTER, a SMOOTH SWINGER, somewhere in between or variations of each extreme.

It really is not necessary to split the hair too fine on this evaluation. Good fitters chiefly think in terms of HITTER, SWINGER or AVERAGE when it comes to evaluating the effect of the transition/tempo on the golfer’s ability to load the shaft.

How is the analysis of the golfer’s transition/tempo used to help narrow down the shaft recommendation? 

The more forceful and aggressive the golfer’s transition/tempo, the more the shaft would be selected to have a swing speed rating that is a little higher than the actual swing speed of the golfer. Vice versa, the more passive, smooth and easy the golfer’s transition/tempo, the more the shaft would be selected to have a swing speed rating that is a little lower than the actual swing speed of the golfer.

For example, let’s say we have three golfers, each with a 100 mph clubhead speed.

  • Golfer No. 1 has a short, three-quarter length backswing with a fast, forceful transition and an aggressive downswing.
  • Golfer No. 2 has a normal backswing length with some sense of transition force and downswing aggressiveness but not nearly as much as Golfer No. 1.
  • Golfer No. 3 has a smooth, rhythmic, almost passive transition and tempo that identifies him as far more of a “swinger” than a “hitter.”

For basic fitting, Golfer No. 2 would be advised to look among shafts that have a 95-to-105 mph swing speed rating because his swing characteristics are putting an average amount of bending force on the shaft for his 100 mph clubhead speed.

Golfer No. 1 (strong/forceful transition and tempo) would be advised to look among shafts that would have a 100-to-110mph swing speed rating because his swing characteristics are “loading” the shaft more from him putting an ABOVE average amount of bending force on the shaft for his 100 mph clubhead speed.

And Golfer No. 3 (smooth, passive transition and tempo) should choose from shafts that have a 90-to-100mph swing speed rating because his swing characteristics are “loading” the shaft much less for his speed and put a BELOW average amount of bending force on the shaft for his 100 mph clubhead speed.

Three golfers in this example all had the same clubhead speed, yet each put a different bending force on the shaft. The more forceful and aggressive the transition/tempo, the higher the swing speed rating of the shaft should be in comparison to the golfer’s clubhead speed. The more passive and smooth the transition/tempo, the lower the swing speed rating of the shaft should be in comparison to the golfer’s clubhead speed. And for the golfer with the average transition/tempo, the swing speed rating of the shaft should allow for the golfer’s clubhead speed to be right in the middle of that range.

Here’s a little different way to look at this relationship of clubhead speed and transition/tempo versus the bend profile stiffness measurements and the swing speed rating for shafts.

In short, as the golfer puts more bending force on the shaft due to his transition and tempo, the swing speed rating of the shaft needs to increase higher than the golfer’s actual clubhead speed. And as the golfer puts less bending force on the shaft due to his transition and tempo, the swing speed rating of the shaft needs to decrease lower than the golfer’s actual clubhead speed.

But what’s next after finding the shafts which have a swing speed rating that corresponds to the golfer’s clubhead speed and adjustments for the golfer’s transition and tempo?

4. Point of Wrist-Cock Release During the Downswing

The key swing characteristic that good shaft fitters analyze to determine the correct TIP STIFFNESS design of the shaft for the golfer is the point the golfer unhinges their wrist cock release on the downswing. In swing mechanics terms, the action of unhinging the wrist cock angle is called the RELEASE.

The point when the golfer releases the club is what determines WHEN the shaft goes from being “loaded” to being “unloaded.”  The point when the golfer releases the club determines when the shaft moves from a “flexed back” position into a “flexed forward” position. The point of release also determines when the clubhead achieves its highest speed.

Once the golfer unhinges the wrist cock angle, the arms immediately begin to slow down while the clubhead speeds up. If the golfer releases the club too early, the clubhead reaches its highest speed well before it gets to the ball. With an early release, by the time the clubhead gets to the ball, the clubhead speed has slowed down. This slowing down of the clubhead before impact even happens for golfers who release the club midway on the downswing – though not as much as with an early release.

The only golfers who achieve their highest clubhead speed right when the clubhead meets the ball are golfers with a late release. Hence, this is another reason why a late release is such an important swing skill for golfers to achieve to be able to play to the best of their physical skills.

In shaft fitting terms, the later the golfer releases the club, the more tip stiff the shaft COULD be. And conversely, the earlier the golfer releases the club, the more tip flexible the shaft should be. Because the actual point of release can vary all the way from the start of the downswing to the very end, so too the tip stiffness design of the shaft is chosen to correspond.

  • Early release = most tip flexible
  • Latest release = most tip stiff
  • Release in between early and very late = tip stiffness in between.

You can now start to see why we need to have quantitative stiffness measurements of shafts so we can choose the right level of stiffness for golfers with varying levels of transition/tempo force and different points of release. With only letters for flex and generic terms for tip stiffness or bend point, shaft fitting is little more than a trial-and-error guess.

Below is a chart that offers some examples for how to combine the golfer’s clubhead speed, transition/tempo evaluation and the golfer’s point of release to narrow the choices for a suitably fit shaft:

5. The Qualitative Side of Shaft Fitting: The Golfer’s Perception and Preference for the Shaft’s BENDING FEEL

Talk about something that can throw a monkey wrench into all the logical things that we have taught so far about shaft flex/bend profile fitting! If you want to know why some golfers play well with shafts that are “on paper” considered to be too stiff, too flexible, too tip stiff or too tip flexible for their clubhead speed, transition/tempo and point of release, this is the reason why.

If a golfer has developed a specific preference for a type of bending feel of the shaft during any point in the swing, that feel preference has to be THE GUIDING FACTOR in the shaft fitting process. During the fitting process, the smart, experienced clubfitter knows to interview the player and ask questions to assess the golfer’s level of perception for the bending feel of the shaft and whether they have acquired specific “likes and dislikes” for various aspects of the shaft’s bending feel during the swing.

The very best way to incorporate a golfer’s preference for shaft feel in the shaft fitting process is to have the golfer reveal specific shafts they have either liked or disliked in previous or current clubs. If these shaft models/flexes are searched in the Bend Profile Software we created, the stiffness measurements of those shafts can then be referenced against possible future shaft recommendations to determine if the new shaft selection may or may not satisfy the golfer’s shaft feel preferences.

One of the myths about shaft flex/bend profile performance is when someone states that this or that shaft is designed in a way that can actually increase the bending velocity of the shaft to offer a golfer a higher clubhead speed. This is impossible because of the physics of tube design and performance. However, it is very possible for a golfer to change to a different shaft flex/bend profile design and experience a measurable increase in clubhead speed.

How this happens is how the new shaft falls into the golfer’s preference for the bending feel of the shaft. Give a golfer a shaft that feels perfect in terms of how much it bends, when it bends and where it bends in relation to the golfer’s acquired preference for bending feel and that golfer will achieve his most free, most unrestricted and most fluid release through the ball. And it is from this – having a shaft that feels perfect in every way to the golfer – that they are able to achieve a higher clubhead speed.

On the other hand, put the golfer into a shaft that demonstrates a feeling of being too stiff or too flexible in some way compared to the golfer’s preference for bending feel and they most typically will begin to change their swing to make the shaft perform and feel as they prefer. Manipulating the swing means a lack of free motion, free unrestricted release and a lower clubhead speed with less swing consistency.

Again, to not have a truly quantitative way to analyze shafts, trying to turn a golfer’s feel preferences for the shaft into a valid new shaft recommendation becomes a trial and error process.

6. Putting It All Together

The higher the golfer’s clubhead speed, the more forceful/aggressive the transition and tempo, the later the release, the more the flex and the bend profile of the shaft become a contributor to the launch angle, trajectory and spin rate for the shot. The lower the clubhead speed, the more passive the transition and tempo, the earlier the release, the less important the shaft’s flex and bend profile are to performance. But for ALL golfers, the WEIGHT of the shaft is an important part of the shaft selection process.

The higher the golfer’s clubhead speed, the more forceful/aggressive the transition and tempo, and the later the release IN RELATION TO THE SWING SPEED RATING and TIP STIFFNESS OF THE SHAFT, the more the shaft can increase launch angle, trajectory and spin.

The shaft only just begins to contribute to launch angle, trajectory and spin in a gradual increasing manner as the golfer has a midway to later to very late release. Midway release, the flex and bend profile begin to matter a little. Very late release, the stiffness design of the shaft matters a lot more. For golfers with an early to before midway release, the flex and bend profile of the shaft do virtually nothing to the launch angle, trajectory and spin of the shot. The shaft’s WEIGHT becomes the only key shaft fitting factor for golfers with an early to before midway release.

The ONLY ways the shaft can lower launch angle, trajectory and spin is:

  1. If the shaft is either more stiff overall than the golfer’s previous/current shaft, or…
  2. If the tip section of the shaft is more stiff than the tip section in the golfer’s previous/current shaft.

Just because a shaft is said to be tip stiff will not reveal whether it is a lower spin shaft than what you play now. A shaft has to be more stiff overall and/or more tip stiff than what you play now to have any effect on lowering launch angle, trajectory and spin.

The golfer’s preferences for a specific bending feel of the shaft overshadow the stiffness and bend profile fitting analysis compiled from the clubhead speed, transition/tempo and point of release. In all cases for all golfers, you do go through the stiffness and bend profile fitting analysis compiled from the clubhead speed, transition/tempo and point of release, but you listen hard and consider modifying the recommendation when the golfer says they have a specific preference for the bending feel of a shaft.

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Tom Wishon is a 40-year veteran of the golf equipment industry specializing in club head design, shaft performance analysis and club fitting research and development. He has been responsible for more than 50 different club head design firsts in his design career, including the first adjustable hosel device, as well as the first 0.830 COR fairway woods, hybrids and irons. GolfWRX Writer of the Month: February 2014 Tom served as a member of the Golf Digest Technical Advisory Panel, and has written several books on golf equipment including "The Search for the Perfect Golf Club" and "The Search for the Perfect Driver," which were selected as back-to-back winners of the 2006 and 2007 Golf Book of the Year by the International Network of Golf (ING), the largest organization of golf industry media professionals in the USA. He continues to teach and share his wealth of knowledge in custom club fitting through his latest book, "Common Sense Clubfitting: The Wishon Method," written for golf professionals and club makers to learn the latest techniques in accurate custom club fitting. Tom currently heads his own company, Tom Wishon Golf Technology, which specializes in the design of original, high-end custom golf equipment designs and club fitting research for independent custom club makers worldwide Click here to visit his site, wishongolf.com

16 Comments

16 Comments

  1. Pingback: The Difference in Using Custom Fitted Golf Shafts | Golf Gear Select

  2. ron

    Aug 14, 2013 at 4:38 pm

    please provide advise on shaft replace for RBZ stage 2 9.5 driver

    ss – 94 mph
    downswing tran – little aggresive
    middle release

  3. Pingback: All About Customizing Golf Shafts | Golf Gear Select

  4. Pingback: Facts About Shaft Fitting | Golf Gear Select

  5. Martin

    Jan 17, 2013 at 9:33 pm

    Based on the article I just read I would recommend Ckua 43 Miyazaki shaft, regular flex. Flexible tip and stiffer on the butt. Wonder what Mr Wishon thinks on my recommendation? 🙂

  6. pistol44

    Nov 9, 2012 at 11:56 am

    sorry, thx for your input if you can provide any!!!

    much appreciated

  7. pistol44

    Nov 9, 2012 at 11:55 am

    please provide advise on shaft replace for rocketballs 10.5 driver

    ss – 94 mph
    downswing tran – little aggresive
    middle release

    like to get more carry. LM indicates launch angle of 9 degrees

  8. Todd

    Oct 25, 2012 at 10:06 pm

    Nice, Tom! Must say, though….in this age of high-tech gadgetry, its rather lacking that your typical “expert” clubfitter isn’t actually MEASURING the bend you put on the shaft. At the end of the day, if you’re not measuring, then your just guessing.

  9. Blanco

    Oct 25, 2012 at 5:08 am

    Much props for putting such detailed and important info into such an easy to read piece. I hope to see these charts on the walls of large retail fitting stalls.

  10. Plus8

    Oct 23, 2012 at 7:38 am

    Great article and I agree with the summation! My own experience of having self-styled ‘fitters’ has shown that many folks do not consider any transition, downswing speed, or wrist release (a MOST important factor for me, since I work on a late wrist release a lot). In fact I had a club pro tell me based on my age and without even looking at me, I needed a reg shaft, but in actually my reg, tip flexible shafts performed terribly for me and a stiffer, less-tip-flex performs wildly better with my transition and wrist. The only shame here is that so many folks are blindly following misinformed ‘fitters’ when the Wishon data clarifies the elements so well. Not a rant, just an affirmation.

  11. Joe Golfer

    Oct 22, 2012 at 1:01 am

    Very good article. As far as finding that “specific preference to the bending feel of a shaft”, it seems like one just has to keep trying a myriad of shafts in order to find that specific shaft that has the right feel to that golfer. I know that Mr. Wishon has software that compares many shafts to one another, telling you which shafts have similar frequencies all the way up and down the shaft, from butt to tip.
    I wonder if there’s any correlation between swing type and those other characteristics of the shaft.
    For example, in this article we learned about increased tip stiffness being related to a late release.
    If one looks up shafts like Diamana’s White Board, Blue Board, and Red Board, one finds that the company lists different characteristics not just for the tip, but also for the butt profile and the middle of the shaft profile.
    I wonder if Mr. Wishon has any data and recommendations on preferences of specific swing types as they relate to the butt and middle of shaft profiles, just as he has noted a recommendation regarding tip stiffness.

  12. Johnny

    Oct 17, 2012 at 11:59 am

    Note to the editors – excellent information! I believe you need to check the chart TGWT bend profile stiffness, seems the #1 and #3 golfer are switched.

  13. Bob

    Oct 17, 2012 at 11:33 am

    We all know Sergio swings a really short driver, but it also looks like (in this picture) that it is back weighted too.

  14. Peter Wentzlaff

    Oct 12, 2012 at 8:29 am

    Excellently explained how a shaft corresponds to a swing or vice versa.
    Even for a non perfect English speaking German easily to understand.
    Thousand Thank´s

  15. Tyler Summerhays

    Oct 10, 2012 at 11:03 am

    I’m happy to report that for a majority of my playing life I have enjoyed Mr. Wishon’s clubs both when he was with Golfsmith and now with his own company. In the past 3 years I have played shafts using his Shaft to Swing system and am happy to report that it’s been an improvement in my game, especially with my driver. I was a little hesitant about using one of his shafts because of my ego but I thought it was worth a try and the shaft hasn’t left my driver since. Now I have a greater amount of confidence that my driver will perform how I want it to when I make a good swing.

  16. Devin Drayton

    Oct 7, 2012 at 10:51 am

    Excellent!!!
    Extremely simple to understand, Bravo!

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Opinion & Analysis

The Wedge Guy: What really makes a wedge work? Part 1

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Of all the clubs in our bags, wedges are almost always the simplest in construction and, therefore, the easiest to analyze what might make one work differently from another if you know what to look for.

Wedges are a lot less mysterious than drivers, of course, as the major brands are working with a lot of “pixie dust” inside these modern marvels. That’s carrying over more to irons now, with so many new models featuring internal multi-material technologies, and almost all of them having a “badge” or insert in the back to allow more complex graphics while hiding the actual distribution of mass.

But when it comes to wedges, most on the market today are still single pieces of molded steel, either cast or forged into that shape. So, if you look closely at where the mass is distributed, it’s pretty clear how that wedge is going to perform.

To start, because of their wider soles, the majority of the mass of almost any wedge is along the bottom third of the clubhead. So, the best wedge shots are always those hit between the 2nd and 5th grooves so that more mass is directly behind that impact. Elite tour professionals practice incessantly to learn to do that consistently, wearing out a spot about the size of a penny right there. If impact moves higher than that, the face is dramatically thinner, so smash factor is compromised significantly, which reduces the overall distance the ball will fly.

Every one of us, tour players included, knows that maddening shot that we feel a bit high on the face and it doesn’t go anywhere, it’s not your fault.

If your wedges show a wear pattern the size of a silver dollar, and centered above the 3rd or 4th groove, you are not getting anywhere near the same performance from shot to shot. Robot testing proves impact even two to three grooves higher in the face can cause distance loss of up to 35 to 55 feet with modern ‘tour design’ wedges.

In addition, as impact moves above the center of mass, the golf club principle of gear effect causes the ball to fly higher with less spin. Think of modern drivers for a minute. The “holy grail” of driving is high launch and low spin, and the driver engineers are pulling out all stops to get the mass as low in the clubhead as possible to optimize this combination.

Where is all the mass in your wedges? Low. So, disregarding the higher lofts, wedges “want” to launch the ball high with low spin – exactly the opposite of what good wedge play requires penetrating ball flight with high spin.

While almost all major brand wedges have begun putting a tiny bit more thickness in the top portion of the clubhead, conventional and modern ‘tour design’ wedges perform pretty much like they always have. Elite players learn to hit those crisp, spinny penetrating wedge shots by spending lots of practice time learning to consistently make contact low in the face.

So, what about grooves and face texture?

Grooves on any club can only do so much, and no one has any material advantage here. The USGA tightly defines what we manufacturers can do with grooves and face texture, and modern manufacturing techniques allow all of us to push those limits ever closer. And we all do. End of story.

Then there’s the topic of bounce and grinds, the most complex and confusing part of the wedge formula. Many top brands offer a complex array of sole configurations, all of them admittedly specialized to a particular kind of lie or turf conditions, and/or a particular divot pattern.

But if you don’t play the same turf all the time, and make the same size divot on every swing, how would you ever figure this out?

The only way is to take any wedge you are considering and play it a few rounds, hitting all the shots you face and observing the results. There’s simply no other way.

So, hopefully this will inspire a lively conversation in our comments section, and I’ll chime in to answer any questions you might have.

And next week, I’ll dive into the rest of the wedge formula. Yes, shafts, grips and specifications are essential, too.

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Golf's Perfect Imperfections

Golf’s Perfect Imperfections: Amazing Session with Performance Coach Savannah Meyer-Clement

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In this week’s episode, we spent some time with performance coach Savannah Meyer-Clement who provides many useful insights that you’ll be able to implement on the golf course.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 RBC Heritage betting preview: Patrick Cantlay ready to get back inside winner’s circle

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Just a two-hour drive from Augusta National, the PGA TOUR heads to Harbour Town Golf Links in Hilton Head Island, S.C. Hilton Head Island is a golfer’s paradise and Harbour Town is one of the most beautiful and scenic courses on the PGA TOUR.

Harbour Town Golf Links is a par-71 that measures 7,121 yards and features Bermuda grass greens. A Pete Dye design, the course is heavily tree lined and features small greens and many dog legs, protecting it from “bomb-and-gauge” type golfers.

The field is loaded this week with 69 golfers with no cut. Last year was quite possibly the best field in RBC Heritage history and the event this week is yet another designated event, meaning there is a $20 million prize pool.

Most of the big names on the PGA Tour will be in attendance this week with the exceptions of Hideki Matsuyama and Viktor Hovland. Additionally, Webb Simpson, Shane Lowry, Gary Woodland and Kevin Kisner have been granted sponsors exemptions. 

Past Winners at Harbour Town

  • 2023: Matt Fitzpatrick (-17)
  • 2022: Jordan Spieth (-13)
  • 2021: Stewart Cink (-19)
  • 2020: Webb Simpson (-22)
  • 2019: CT Pan (-12)
  • 2018: Sotoshi Kodaira (-12)
  • 2017: Wesley Bryan (-13)
  • 2016: Branden Grace (-9)
  • 2015: Jim Furyk (-18)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value).

Key Stats For Harbour Town

Let’s take a look at key metrics for Harbour Town Golf Links to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their past 24 rounds.

Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach is exceedingly important this week. The greens at Harbour Town are about half the size of PGA TOUR average and feature the second-smallest greens on the tour. Typical of a Pete Dye design, golfers will pay the price for missed greens.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+1.27)
  2. Tom Hoge (+1.27)
  3. Corey Conners (+1.16)
  4. Austin Eckroat (+0.95)
  5. Cameron Young (+0.93)

Good Drive %

The fairways at Harbour Town are tree lined and feature many dog legs. Bombers tend to struggle at the course because it forces layups and doesn’t allow long drivers to overpower it. Accuracy is far more important than power.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (88.8%)
  2. Shane Lowry (+87.2%)
  3. Akshay Bhatia (+86.0%)
  4. Si Woo Kim (+85.8%)
  5. Sepp Straka (+85.1%)

Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye Designs

Pete Dye specialists tend to play very well at Harbour Town. Si Woo Kim, Matt Kuchar, Jim Furyk and Webb Simpson are all Pete Dye specialists who have had great success here. It is likely we see some more specialists near the top of the leaderboard this week.

SG: TOT Pete Dye per round over past 36 rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+2.27)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+2.24)
  3. Ludvig Aberg (+2.11)
  4. Brian Harman (+1.89)
  5. Sungjae Im (+1.58)

4. Strokes Gained: Short Game (Bermuda)

Strokes Gained: Short Game factors in both around the green and putting. With many green-side bunkers and tricky green complexes, both statistics will be important. Past winners — such as Jim Furyk, Wes Bryan and Webb Simpson — highlight how crucial the short game skill set is around Harbour Town.

SG: SG Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Jordan Spieth (+1.11)
  2. Taylor Moore (+1.02)
  3. Wyndham Clark (+0.98)
  4. Mackenzie Hughes (+0.86)
  5. Andrew Putnam (+0.83)

5. Greens in Regulation %

The recipe for success at Harbour Town Golf Links is hitting fairways and greens. Missing either will prove to be consequential — golfers must be in total control of the ball to win.

Greens in Regulation % over past 24 rounds:

  1. Brice Garnett (+75.0%)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+69.9%)
  3. Corey Conners (+69.0%)
  4. Shane Lowry (+68.3%)
  5. Patrick Rodgers (+67.6%)

6. Course History

Harbour Town is a course where players who have strong past results at the course always tend to pop up. 

Course History over past 24 rounds:

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+2.34)
  2. Cam Davis (+2.05)
  3. J.T. Poston (+1.69)
  4. Justin Rose (+1.68)
  5. Tommy Fleetwood (+1.59)

The RBC Heritage Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (24%), Good Drives (20%), SG: SG (14%), SG: Pete Dye (14%), GIR (14%), and Course History (14%)

  1. Shane Lowry
  2. Russell Henley
  3. Scottie Scheffler
  4. Xander Schauffele
  5. Corey Conners 
  6. Wyndham Clark
  7. Christiaan Bezuidenhout
  8. Matt Fitzpatrick
  9. Cameron Young
  10. Ludvig Aberg 

2024 RBC Heritage Picks

Patrick Cantlay +2000 (FanDuel)

With the exception of Scottie Scheffler, the PGA Tour has yet to have any of their star players show peak form during the 2024 season. Last week, Patrick Cantlay, who I believe is a top-5 players on the PGA Tour, took one step closer to regaining the form that’s helped him win eight events on Tour since 2017.

Cantlay limped into the Masters in poor form, but figured it out at Augusta National, finishing in a tie for 20th and ranking 17th for the week in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. The former FedEx Cup champion will now head to one of his favorite golf courses in Harbour Town, where he’s had immaculate results over the years. In his six trips to the course, he’s only finished worse than 7th one time. The other finishes include three third places (2017, 2019, 2023) and one runner-up finish (2022). In his past 36 rounds at Harbour Town, Cantlay ranks 1st in Strokes Gained: Total per round at the course by a wide margin (+2.36).

Cantlay is winless since the 2022 BMW Championship, which is far too long for a player of his caliber. With signs pointing to the 32-year-old returning to form, a “signature event” at Harbour Town is just what he needs to get back on the winning track.

Tommy Fleetwood +3000 (FanDuel)

I truly believe Tommy Fleetwood will figure out a way to win on American soil in 2024. It’s certainly been a bugaboo for him throughout his career, but he is simply too talented to go another season without winning a PGA Tour event.

At last week’s Masters Tournament, Fleetwood made a Sunday charge and ended up finishing T3 in the event, which was his best ever finish at The Masters. For the week, the Englishman ranked 8th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, 10th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking and 16th in Strokes Gained: Putting.

Harbour Town is a perfect layout for Fleetwood, and he’s had relative success at this Pete Dye design in the past.  In his four trips to the course, he’s finished inside of the top 25 three times, with his best finish, T10, coming in 2022. The course is pretty short and can’t be overpowered, which gives an advantage to more accurate players such as Fleetwood. Tommy ranks 8th in the field in Good Drive % and should be able to plot his way along this golf course.

The win is coming for Tommy lad. I believe there’s a chance this treasure of a golf course may be the perfect one for him to finally break through on Tour.

Cameron Young +3300 (FanDuel)

Cameron Young had a solid Masters Tournament last week, which is exactly what I’m looking for in players who I anticipate playing well this week at the RBC Heritage. He finished in a tie for 9th, but never felt the pressure of contending in the event. For the week, Young ranked 6th in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking.

Despite being one of the longest players off the tee on the PGA Tour, Young has actually played some really good golf on shorter tracks. He finished T3 at Harbour Town in 2023 and ranks 20th in the field in Good Drive% and 16th in Greens in Regulation in his past 24 rounds. He also has strong finishes at other shorter courses that can take driver out of a players hand such as Copperhead and PGA National.

Young is simply one of the best players on the PGA Tour in 2024, and I strongly believe has what it takes to win a PGA Tour event in the very near future.

Corey Conners +5500 (FanDuel)

Corey Conners has had a disappointing year thus far on the PGA Tour, but absolutely loves Harbour Town.

At last week’s Masters Tournament, the Canadian finished T30 but ranked 20th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach. In his past 24 rounds, Conners ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, 3rd in Greens in Regulation % and 24th in Good Drive %.

In Conners’ last four trips to Harbour Town, his worst finish was T31, last season. He finished T4 in 2021, T12 in 2022 and ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Total at the course over his past 36 rounds.

Conners hasn’t been contending, but his recent finishes have been encouraging as he has finished in the top-25 in each of his past three starts prior to The Masters, including an impressive T13 at The PLAYERS. His recent improvement in ball striking as well as his suitability for Harbour Town makes Conners a high upside bet this week.

Shane Lowry (+7500) (FanDuel)

When these odds were posted after Lowry was announced in the field, I have to admit I was pretty stunned. Despite not offering much win equity on the PGA Tour over the last handful of years, Shane Lowry is still a top caliber player who has the ability to rise to the top of a signature event.

Lowry struggled to score at The Masters last week, but he actually hit the ball really well. The Irishman ranked 1st for Strokes Gained: Approach on the week and 7th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. As usual, it was the putter that let him down, as he ranked 60th in the field in Strokes Gained: Putting.

Harbour Town is most definitely one of Lowry’s favorite courses on the PGA Tour. In his six starts there, he’s finished in the top 10 three times, including third twice. Lowry is sensational at Pete Dye designs and ranks 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in his past 36 rounds on Dye tracks. 

Lowry is perfect for Harbour Town. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 5th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 2nd in Good Drive% and 5th in Green in Regulation %. If he figures it out on the greens, Shane could have his first win in America since 2015.

Lucas Glover +12000 (FanDuel)

This is one of my weekly “bet the number” plays as I strongly believe the odds are just too long for a player of Glover’s caliber. The odds have been too long on Glover for a few weeks now, but this is the first event that I can get behind the veteran being able to actually contend at. 

Glover is quietly playing good golf and returning to the form he had after the understandable regression after his two massive victories at the end of 2023. He finished T20 at The Masters, which was his best ever finish at Augusta National. For the week, Lucas ranked 18th for Strokes Gained: Approach and 20th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking.

Over his past 24 rounds, Glover ranks 9th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 13th in Good Drive %. Harbour Town is a short course that the 44-year-old will be able to keep up with the top players on Tour off the tee. He’s played the course more than 20 times, with mixed results. His best finishes at Harbour Town include a T7 in 2008, but recently has a finish of T21 in 2020.

Glover has proven he can contend with the stars of the Tour on any given week, and this number is flat out disrespectful.

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